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THE STATE AND POLICY EVALUATION IN NIGERIA: A CASE STUDY

OF FOREX TRADING BAN POLICY

BY

KWENTOH, Stellamaris Mwanneka

MATRIC NO: 199088178

A PROJECT SUBMITTEDTO THE DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC AND


INTERNATIOAL AFFAIRS, UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS, IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF IN
PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS (MPIA)

MARCH, 2023

CERTIFICATION

i
I, KWENTOH, Stellamaris Mwanneka do hereby certify that the work embodied in this

research work was carried out by me and is original. It has not been submitted in part or in full to

this institution or any other institution for the award of a degree or diploma.

__________________________ __________
DR DELE ASHIRU Date

DEDICATION

ii
This work is dedicated to God Almighty, who saw me through and my parents for their moral

support and prayers.

iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

My immeasurable gratitude goes to the Almighty God, from whom every good thing comes. In
the same vein, my unflinching appreciation goes to my supervisor, DR DELE ASHIRU for
bringing his inestimable academic prowess to bear in the quality of this work. May God bless
him. I wish to equally register my indebtedness to the Head of Department of public and
international affairs, University of Lagos.
God bless you all

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ABSTRACT

This study assessed the impact of the state and policy evaluation using the Fore as a case study.
This study was guided by the following objectives: to evaluate the extent to which the Nigerian
government conducts policy evaluation in monetary policies; examine the impact of foreign
exchange rate policy in the forex trading in Nigeria; evaluate the effect of the parallel market on
the foreign exchange market policies in Nigeria and examine the challenges of monetary policy
evaluation in Nigeria. Research questions were derived from the objectives. Purchasing Power
Parity Theory and Balance Of Payments (BOP) Theory were used to substantiate the variables
of the study. The study was a quantitative study in which data were gotten from a primary source
through the use of questionnaires. The study revealed that there is a relationship between
foreign exchange rate policy and forex trading in Nigeria; it was also revealed that there is a
relationship between parallel markets on the foreign exchange market in Nigeria. It was
therefore, among others recommended that there is a need for the CBN to improve its capacity
for policy evaluation in terms of the technology and manpower needed to efficiently evaluate its
forex policies; the CBN must ensure that it trains its workers on the policy evaluation; the CBN
need to create an environment for innovation in the bank; there is need for better public
relations of the issue of forex management to enlighten the populace about policy actions

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title Page i

Certification ii

Dedication iii

Acknowledgements iv

Abstract v

Table Of Contents vi

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION


1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY 1

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 2

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 3

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 4

1.5 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS 4

1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY 4

1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY 5

1.8 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY 5

1.9 DEFINITION OF TERMS 5

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CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.0 INTRODUCTION 7

2.1 CONCEPTUAL CLARIFICATIONS 7

2.2 HISTORY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE 10

2.3 THE NIGERIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE SYSTEM 12

2.4 THE NIGERIAN EXCHANGE RATE POLICY 14

2.5 THE OFFICIAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 16

2.6 BUREAU DE CHANGE MARKET 17

2.7 THE PARALLEL FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (BLACK MARKET) 18

2.8 THE DEMAND FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE 18

2.9 FACTORS AFFECTING DEMAND FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE 20

2.10 THE SUPPLY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE 22

2.11 FOREIGN RESERVES 23

2.12 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 24

CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.0 INTRODUCTION 26

3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN 26

3.2 STUDY LOCATION 26

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3.3 STUDY POPULATION 26

3.4 SAMPLE SIZE 27

3.5 SAMPLING TECHNIQUES/METHODS 27

3.6 RESEARCH INSTRUMENT 27

3.7 ETHICAL CONSIDERATION 28

3.8 METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS 28

CHAPTER FOUR: DATA PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION

4.0 INTRODUCTION 29

4.1 HYPOTHESES TESTING 39

4.2 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS 41

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.0 INTRODUCTION 43

5.1 SUMMARY 43

5.2 CONCLUSION 44

5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS 45

REFERENCES 46

APPENDIX 49

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