Year n

1960 0
1961 1
1962 2
1963 3
1964 4
1965 5
1966 6
1967 7
1968 8
1969 9
1970 10
1971 11
1972 12
1973 13
1974 14
1975 15
1976 16
1977 17
1978 18
1979 19
1980 20
1981 21
1982 22
1983 23
1984 24
1985 25
1986 26
1987 27
1988 28
1989 29
1990 30
1991 31
1992 32
1993 33
1994 34
1995 35
1996 36
1997 37
1998 38
1999 39
2000 40
2001 41
2002 42
2003 43
2004 44
2005 45
2006 46
2007 47
2008 48
2009 49
Average Price Local Delivered(RM) per tone (Actual)
627.50
657.00
612.00
608.50
638.50
742.00
632.00
614.50
440.00
430.00
641.50
673.00
482.50
570.00
1152.50
1055.00
881.50
1224.50
1178.50
1038.00
919.00
964.00
829.00
991.00
1407.50
1045.50
578.50
773.00
1029.00
822.00
700.50
836.50
916.50
890.00
1283.50
1472.50
1191.50
1358.00
2377.50
1449.50
996.50
894.50
1363.50
1544.00
1610.00
1394.00
1510.50
2530.50
2777.50
2236.50

r=
 r

0.0470
-0.0685
-0.0057
0.0493
0.1621
-0.1482
-0.0277
-0.2840
-0.0227
0.4919
0.0491
-0.2831
0.1813
1.0219
-0.0846
-0.1645
0.3891
-0.0376
-0.1192
-0.1146
0.0490
-0.1400
0.1954
0.4203
-0.2572
-0.4467
0.3362
0.3312
-0.2012
-0.1478
0.1941
0.0956
-0.0289
0.4421
0.1473
-0.1908
0.1397
0.7507
-0.3903
-0.3125
-0.1024
0.5243
0.1324
0.0427
-0.1342
0.0836
0.6753
 0.0976
-0.1948

0.0641
Average Price Local Delivered(RM) per tone (Malthusian Growth)(Predict)
627.5000
667.7228
710.5238
756.0684
804.5323
856.1029
910.9790
969.3728
1031.5096
1097.6294
1167.9874
1242.8554
1322.5224
1407.2961
1497.5038
1593.4938
1695.6368
1804.3271
1919.9844
2043.0554
2174.0153
2313.3697
2461.6567
2619.4489
2787.3555
2966.0250
3156.1472
3358.4563
3573.7333
3802.8096
4046.5697
4305.9548
4581.9665
4875.6706
5188.2011
5520.7648
5874.6458
6251.2106
6651.9132
7078.3008
7532.0199
8014.8224
8528.5725
9075.2540
9656.9777
10275.9900
10934.6810
11635.5940
 12381.4356
13175.0856
Relative Error
Relative Error
0.0000
0.0163
0.1610
0.2425
0.2600
0.1538
0.4414
0.5775
1.3443
1.5526
0.8207
0.8467
1.7410
1.4689
0.2994
0.5104
0.9236
0.4735
0.6292
0.9683
1.3656
1.3998
1.9694
1.6432
0.9804
1.8369
4.4557
3.3447
2.4730
3.6263
4.7767
4.1476
3.9994
4.4783
3.0422
2.7492
3.9305
3.6032
1.7979
3.8833
6.5585
7.9601
5.2549
4.8778
4.9981
6.3716
6.2391
3.5981
3.4578
4.8909
2.5428
Year n Average Price Local Delivered(RM) per tone (Actual)
1960 0 627.50
1961 1 657.00
1962 2 612.00
1963 3 608.50
1964 4 638.50
1965 5 742.00
1966 6 632.00
1967 7 614.50
1968 8 440.00
1969 9 430.00
1970 10 641.50
1971 11 673.00
1972 12 482.50
1973 13 570.00
1974 14 1152.50
1975 15 1055.00
1976 16 881.50
1977 17 1224.50
1978 18 1178.50
1979 19 1038.00
1980 20 919.00
1981 21 964.00
1982 22 829.00
1983 23 991.00
1984 24 1407.50
1985 25 1045.50
1986 26 578.50
1987 27 773.00
1988 28 1029.00
1989 29 822.00
1990 30 700.50
1991 31 836.50
1992 32 916.50
1993 33 890.00
1994 34 1283.50
1995 35 1472.50
1996 36 1191.50
1997 37 1358.00
1998 38 2377.50
1999 39 1449.50
2000 40 996.50
2001 41 894.50
2002 42 1363.50
2003 43 1544.00
2004 44 1610.00
2005 45 1394.00
2006 46 1510.50
2007 47 2530.50
2008 48 2777.50
2009 49 2236.50

r
 r

0.0470
-0.0685
-0.0057
0.0493
0.1621
-0.1482
-0.0277
-0.2840
-0.0227
0.4919
0.0491
-0.2831
0.1813
1.0219
-0.0846
-0.1645
0.3891
-0.0376
-0.1192
-0.1146
0.0490
-0.1400
0.1954
0.4203
-0.2572
-0.4467
0.3362
0.3312
-0.2012
-0.1478
0.1941
0.0956
-0.0289
0.4421
0.1473
-0.1908
0.1397
0.7507
-0.3903
-0.3125
-0.1024
0.5243
0.1324
0.0427
-0.1342
0.0836
0.6753
0.0976
-0.1948

0.0641
Average Price Local Delivered(RM) per tone (Predict) Relative Error
627.5000 0
516.8691 0.2133
533.7428 0.1279
507.7360 0.1656
505.6483 0.2081
523.2389 0.2948
578.6333 0.0844
519.4861 0.1546
509.2216 0.1573
394.0331 0.0836
386.7252 0.3972
524.9601 0.2200
542.6157 0.1246
424.2368 0.2557
482.0632 0.5817
717.5013 0.3199
696.2097 0.2102
640.3081 0.4771
728.5488 0.3818
721.9488 0.3045
691.7516 0.2473
654.3445 0.3212
669.7658 0.1921
618.8470 0.3755
678.2738 0.5181
738.7497 0.2934
693.7457 0.1992
487.3680 0.3695
593.6274 0.4231
689.3018 0.1614
615.8260 0.1209
557.4078 0.3336
622.0422 0.3213
653.4423 0.2658
643.5842 0.4986
734.6405 0.5011
736.1972 0.3821
723.9784 0.4669
738.5222 0.6894
364.3417 0.7486
737.4705 0.2599
679.9384 0.2399
645.2961 0.5267
738.6402 0.5216
729.6504 0.5468
 720.1304 0.4834
738.8739 0.5108
733.2055 0.7103
239.4593 0.9138
0.0000 1.0000
Relative Error 0.3581
M 2777.5
Year n
1960 0
1961 1
1962 2
1963 3
1964 4
1965 5
1966 6
1967 7
1968 8
1969 9
1970 10
1971 11
1972 12
1973 13
1974 14
1975 15
1976 16
1977 17
1978 18
1979 19
1980 20
1981 21
1982 22
1983 23
1984 24
1985 25
1986 26
1987 27
1988 28
1989 29
1990 30
1991 31
1992 32
1993 33
1994 34
1995 35
1996 36
1997 37
1998 38
1999 39
2000 40
2001 41
2002 42
2003 43
2004 44
2005 45
2006 46
2007 47
2008 48
2009 49
Average Price Local Delivered(RM) per tone (Actual)
627.50
657.00
612.00
608.50
638.50
742.00
632.00
614.50
440.00
430.00
641.50
673.00
482.50
570.00
1152.50
1055.00
881.50
1224.50
1178.50
1038.00
919.00
964.00
829.00
991.00
1407.50
1045.50
578.50
773.00
1029.00
822.00
700.50
836.50
916.50
890.00
1283.50
1472.50
1191.50
1358.00
2377.50
1449.50
996.50
894.50
1363.50
1544.00
1610.00
1394.00
1510.50
 2530.50
2777.50
2236.50

Average Price Local Delivery(RM) per tone 1960-2009

14000.00

12000.00

10000.00

8000.00

6000.00

4000.00

2000.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 4

Average Price Local Delivered(RM) per tone (Actual) Logistic(Predict) Malthusian(Pred

 r Logistic(Predict)
627.5000
0.0470 516.8691
-0.0685 533.7428
-0.0057 507.7360
0.0493 505.6483
0.1621 523.2389
-0.1482 578.6333
-0.0277 519.4861
-0.2840 509.2216
-0.0227 394.0331
0.4919 386.7252
0.0491 524.9601
-0.2831 542.6157
0.1813 424.2368
1.0219 482.0632
-0.0846 717.5013
-0.1645 696.2097
0.3891 640.3081
-0.0376 728.5488
-0.1192 721.9488
-0.1146 691.7516
0.0490 654.3445
-0.1400 669.7658
0.1954 618.8470
0.4203 678.2738
-0.2572 738.7497
-0.4467 693.7457
0.3362 487.3680
0.3312 593.6274
-0.2012 689.3018
-0.1478 615.8260
0.1941 557.4078
0.0956 622.0422
-0.0289 653.4423
0.4421 643.5842
0.1473 734.6405
-0.1908 736.1972
0.1397 723.9784
0.7507 738.5222
-0.3903 364.3417
-0.3125 737.4705
-0.1024 679.9384
0.5243 645.2961
0.1324 738.6402
0.0427 729.6504
-0.1342 720.1304
0.0836 738.8739
 0.6753 733.2055
0.0976 239.4593
-0.1948 0.0000

r tone 1960-2009

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

Logistic(Predict) Malthusian(Predict)
Malthusian(Predict)
627.5000
667.7228
710.5238
756.0684
804.5323
856.1029
910.9790
969.3728
1031.5096
1097.6294
1167.9874
1242.8554
1322.5224
1407.2961
1497.5038
1593.4938
1695.6368
1804.3271
1919.9844
2043.0554
2174.0153
2313.3697
2461.6567
2619.4489
2787.3555
2966.0250
3156.1472
3358.4563
3573.7333
3802.8096
4046.5697
4305.9548
4581.9665
4875.6706
5188.2011
5520.7648
5874.6458
6251.2106
6651.9132
7078.3008
7532.0199
8014.8224
8528.5725
9075.2540
9656.9777
10275.9900
10934.6810
11635.5940
12381.4356
13175.0856