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    Forecasting Calculations

    Uploaded by

    Vijaya Bala
    The third document displays time series sales data over 4 years with a centered moving average (CMA) line, calculates seasonal indices, and uses the trend from CMA and seasonal indices to forecast future sales values

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Forecasting Calculations

    Uploaded by

    Vijaya Bala
    85 views11 pages
    The third document displays time series sales data over 4 years with a centered moving average (CMA) line, calculates seasonal indices, and uses the trend from CMA and seasonal indices to forecast future sales values

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

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    XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

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    The third document displays time series sales data over 4 years with a centered moving average (CMA) line, calculates seasonal indices, and uses the trend from CMA and seasonal indices to forecast future sales values

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    85 views11 pages

    Forecasting Calculations

    Uploaded by

    Vijaya Bala
    The third document displays time series sales data over 4 years with a centered moving average (CMA) line, calculates seasonal indices, and uses the trend from CMA and seasonal indices to forecast future sales values

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 11

    year sales

    6 61.63
    7 67.97
    8 69.63
    9 71.49
    10 89.01
    11 96.61
    12 108.62
    13 111.53
    14 115
    15 119.6
    Compute this 16 94.32
    Regression Chart - Linear
    140

    120 f(x) = 7.14806060606061 x + 16.0543636363636


    R² = 0.959878313001159
    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    0
    4 6 8 10 12 14 16
    Time sales ravenue Quality range Advertaising
    1 44 3 10
    2 40 4 9
    3 42 3 11
    4 46 3 12
    5 48 4 11
    6 52 5 12
    7 54 6 13
    8 58 7 13
    9 56 7 14
    10 60 8 15 one dependent and 1

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression Statistics
    Multiple R 0.9644447362
    R Square 0.9301536492
    Adjusted R Square 0.9101975489
    Standard Error 2.0953143087
    Observations 10

    ANOVA
    df SS MS F Significance F
    Regression 2 409.2676056338 204.633802817 46.609990834 9.0054003E-05
    Residual 7 30.7323943662 4.39034205231
    Total 9 440

    Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


    Intercept 17.943661972 5.919135603577 3.03146661499 0.0190750868 3.9471303751 31.94019
    X Variable 1 1.9154929577 0.681005526154 2.81274216461 0.0260431775 0.3051707751 3.525815
    X Variable 2 1.8732394366 0.703339483059 2.66335031907 0.0323097348 0.2101058379 3.536373
    one dependent and 1 or more independent variables

    Lower 95.0%
    Upper 95.0%
    3.94713 31.94019
    0.305171 3.525815
    0.210106 3.536373
    Yt MA(4)
    t year Quarter sale in 1000 Moving average
    1 year 1 1 4.8
    2 2 4.1
    3 3 6.0 5.4
    4 4 6.5 5.6
    5 year2 1 5.8 5.9
    6 2 5.2 6.1
    7 3 6.8 6.3
    8 4 7.4 6.4
    9 year 3 1 6.0 6.5
    10 2 5.6 6.6
    11 3 7.5 6.7
    12 4 7.8 6.8
    13 year 4 1 6.3 6.9
    14 2 5.9 7.0
    15 3 8.0 7.2
    16 4 8.4
    17 Year 5 1
    18 2
    19 3
    20 4

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression Statistics
    Multiple R 0.95436406487
    R Square 0.91081076831
    Adjusted R Square 0.90395005818
    Standard Error 0.21811394876
    Observations 15

    ANOVA
    df SS
    Regression 1 6.3157650667423
    Residual 13 0.6184580303743
    Total 14 6.9342230971166

    Coefficients Standard Error


    Intercept Intercept 5.08233329954 0.1185139949128
    Slope X Variable 1 0.1501875621 0.0130348015827
    CMA(4) Yt / CMA
    Centered moving average It (Irregular ) component Meaning of column H value

    5.5 1.10 10% of variation above base line


    5.7 1.13 so on
    6.0 0.97 so on
    6.2 0.84 16% of variation below base line
    6.3 1.08 so on
    6.4 1.16 so on
    6.5 0.92 so on
    6.7 0.84 so on
    6.8 1.11 so on
    6.8 1.14 so on
    6.9 0.91 so on
    7.1 0.83 so on

    MS F Significance F
    6.31576506674228 132.757506306385 3.39738719336029E-08
    0.0475736946441765

    t Stat P-value Lower 95%


    42.8838240014207 2.182132992397E-15 4.82629937958299
    11.5220443631495 3.39738719336E-08 0.122027585318341
    Simple linear regression

    Average of Q1
    (Y1),Q1(Y2)Q1(Y3),Q1(Y4) Trend component = Intercept
    from column H) Deseasonalizing +(Slope * time)
    Seasonal componnet St Meaning of Column J Yt / St

    0.93 5.15 5.23


    0.84 4.89 5.38
    1.09 5.49 5.53
    1.14 5.69 5.68
    0.93 6.22 5.83
    0.84 6.21 5.98
    1.09 6.22 6.13
    1.14 6.47 6.28
    0.93 6.44 6.43
    0.84 6.68 6.58
    1.09 9% above the base line 6.86 6.73
    1.14 6.82 6.88
    0.93 3% below the base line 6.76 7.03
    0.84 7.04 7.18
    1.09 7.32 7.34
    1.14 7.35 7.49
    0.93 7.64
    0.84 7.79
    1.09 7.94
    1.14 8.09

    Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


    5.33836721950649 4.82629937958299 5.3383672195065
    0.17834753888334 0.122027585318341 0.1783475388833
    Forecast

    4.88
    4.51
    6.05
    6.50
    5.44
    5.01
    6.71
    7.18
    6.00
    5.52
    7.36
    7.87
    6.56
    6.02
    8.02
    8.56
    7.12
    6.52
    8.68
    9.24
    Time series
    10.0
    9.0
    8.0
    7.0
    6.0
    5.0
    4.0
    3.0
    2.0
    1.0
    0.0
    1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
    year 1 year2 year 3 year 4

    sale in 1000 CMA(4) Forecast


    Assumption for
    At-1 , previous period actual demand calculation α ,Constant
    Initial forecast
    demand- smoothening constant
    week Actual Demand assumption ranges from 0 to 1
    65 0.6
    1 58
    2 62
    3 67
    4 64
    5 69
    6 71
    7 72
    8 75
    9 77
    10 79
    11 81
    12 83
    13 86
    14 88
    15

    Fore casting using exponential smootheing concept


    100
    90
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
    Ft-1,previous period forecast
    demand Remarks

    Forecast demand

    65 treat initial forecast demand itself


    60.8 use formula henceforth
    61.5
    64.8
    64.3
    67.1
    69.5
    71.0
    73.4
    75.6
    77.6
    79.6
    81.7
    84.3
    86.5

    al smootheing concept

    8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

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