Early Warning System for Severe Thunder Storms in Bangladesh

Ms. Arjumand Habib

Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207
Email: info@bmd.gov.bd

International Forum on Tornado Disaster Risk Reduction for Bangladesh

13-14 December 2009, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Early Warning System for Severe Thunder Storms in Bangladesh
Ms. Arjumand Habib
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207
Email: info@bmd.gov.bd

1. Introduction:

The great Himalayas stand out to the north and the vast funneling Bay of Bengal flanks on
the south of Bangladesh. Due to its peculiar geographic location having complex coastal
configuration and shallow bathymetry, Bangladesh has become a disaster prone country. It is
the most vulnerable country to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms related disasters in the
world. The Bay of Bengal and the criss-cross river systems in Bangladesh supply warm and
moist air (moisture) and the orographic features of the north and the east (provide cold and
heavy air and give lifting) help form severe thunder storms during pre-monsoon (March –
May) and post monsoon (October – November) seasons (Fig. 1).

Bangladesh

Bay of Bengal

Fig. 1: Topographic map of Bangladesh showing orographic features on the east and north.

Apart from local thunder storms, some thunder storms that form over Chhoto Nagpur, West
Bengal and northeastern India also move towards Bangladesh and create havoc. Pre-monsoon
thunder storms which attain wind speed of 50 - 60 kms/hr or more are termed as nor’westers
(locally known as “Kal Baishakhi”). A few of them turn out to tornado exceeding wind speed
of 150 kms/hr.

Tornado statistics alone shows great amounts of damage in Bangladesh in the past few
decades. There occurred a severe tornado on the 14th April of 1969 in Demra area of Dhaka in
which maximum wind speed was estimated to be 644 kms/hr. In that incident, 922 people
were killed, 16,511 people were injured with a loss of properties in the tune of Rs. 40-45
million. In 1996, the Tangail Tornado (with estimated wind speed 320-400 kms/hr.) killed
570 people and injured 30,000 people. The Manikganj (Saturia) Tornado (with estimated
wind spedd 388-419 kms/hr.) in 1989 killed over 1000 people. Local newspapers reported
10,766 tornado deaths during the period from 1961 to 1996. The list of hazards (thunder
storms and associated events in the ellipse) that affect Bangladesh is given in the following
Table 1:
Table 1: Major hazards that affect Bangladesh

Hazard Hazard National Agency Type Remarks

Rank for Mandate of the
Hazard
1 Cyclones BMD I
2 Storm surge BMD I
3 Thunderstorm BMD I
(Nor’wester), Lightning
4 Tornado BMD I
5 Hailstorm BMD I
6 River flooding FFWC (BWDB), II
BMD, SPARRSO
7 Flash flood FFWC (BWDB), II
BMD, SPARRSO
8 Coastal flooding (due to BMD I
storm surge/tsunami)
9 Drought BMD, BWDB, II
DAE
10 Heat Wave BMD I
11 Cold Wave BMD I
12 Dense Fog BMD I
13 Landslide/Mudslide (due BMD I
to heavy rain)
14 Earthquake BMD I
15 Tsunami BMD III Tsunami Watch
Information (TWI)
Bulletins are received
from PTWC and JMA
16 Turbulance/Icing BMD I
17 Strong winds BMD I
18 Wind driven surge BMD I
19 Air pollution DoE, AEC II
20 Waterborne hazards ICDDRB, DoE II
21 River Erosion BWDB I
Note: Hazard rank is based on the historical figures of casualties
and economic losses attributed to the respective hazards.
AEC Atomic Energy Commission
BMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department
BWDB Bangladesh Water Development Board
DAE Department of Agriculture Extension
DoE Department of Environment
FFWC Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre
ICDDRB International Centre for Diarrheal Diseases
Research, Bangladesh
2. Early Warning Systems

The magnitude of casualties from all the thunder storms that occur in a year is almost
equivalent to that of a cyclone in Bangladesh. That is why it is a dire need to address
impacts of this disaster properly. In view of this Early Warning System (EWS) for
thunder storms was introduced to certain extent. The EWS evolved historically in
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). India Meteorological Department (IMD)
was established by the British Empire in India in 1875, just one year before the Bakerganj
Cyclone of 1876 which took away lives of 2,00,000 people when the total population of
Bengal (West Bengal and Bangladesh) was only 20 million. So, BMD inherited old signal
systems from IMD and later on from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) as
Bangladesh was a part of Pakistan up to 25th March 1971. After the independence
Bangladesh Meteorological Department was reorganized. Cyclone centres were built but
the approach to disaster management remained almost the same as before like 1970s and
1980s. The 29th April Cyclone of 1991 killed about 1,38,882 people and made a colossal
economic loss. Some remarkable floods occurred in 1980s and 1990s. Especially the
flood of 1998 which stayed for the longest period and flooded the largest area in the
history of Bangladesh.

z After these two catastrophic flood disasters the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) had
come to a point we may call it ‘the phase of paradigm sift’.

z In 1993 the GoB established the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), Disaster
Management Council and Disaster Management Committees from national to field
levels and renamed the Ministry of Relief and rehabilitation as Ministry of Disaster
Management and Relief.

z DMB performs its professional support function in collaboration with administrative

authorities at different levels and concerning ministries under the overall authority of
Inter-Ministerial Disaster Management Co-ordination Committee.

z The DMB has responsibilities:

{ To create public awareness on hazards and preparedness.
{ To formulate programs and projects for vulnerable communities and public
officials disaster preparedness.
{ To coordinate all activities related to disaster management from national to
grass-root level.
{ To maintain liaison with Government Agencies, Donors and NGOs.

z The Ministry of Disaster Management and relief was renamed again as the Ministry
of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) in 2004. It has the following
responsibilities:

{ Food management.
{ Planning, coordination, monitoring and evaluation of all activities related to
disaster management.
{ Coordination among other organizations during disaster period.
 { Assisting other Ministries and Organizations in disaster related works.
{ Formulation of policy and its implementation for food assisted projects and
programmes management of external food aid and other relief assistance.
{ Management of all other food and disaster related activities on the
Government side.

z In 2003, a Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) of MoFDM

was designed to help upgrade capabilities for all disaster management agencies with
the help of UNDP and DFID UK.

z After liberation of Bangladesh from Pakistan in 1971 the International Federation of

Red Cross and Red Crescent withdrew from direct implementation through CPP.

z CPP turned out to be a joint venture programme of the government and Red Crescent
society. In which the implementation part is mainly maintained by CPP through its
community based preparedness programme.

2.1. Governance and Institutions (Legal Framework)

Bangladesh Government’s Legislative Framework is aimed at fostering the activities for

Disaster Risk reduction and Emergency Management in Bangladesh. It includes:

i. Disaster Management Act: Enactment of this law provides the legal basis for activities
and actions which are identified, undertaken and managed during the periods of
disasters and are designed to increase and enhance the capability of preparedness and
management.

ii. National Plan for Disaster Management: The National Plan for Disaster Management is
prepared by MoFDM. This plan incorporates public awareness building and
development of planning procedures from top level to grass root levels in a
community based participatory manner.

iii. National Disaster management policy: It is a strategic Framework which reflects the
national perspective and principle of risk reduction and emergency and disaster
management.

iv. Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD): SOD describes in detail the roles and
responsibilities of different committees, ministries and other organizations involved in
disaster related activities. It is key document which is followed by all concerned
organizations in Bangladesh.

v. Guidelines for government at all Levels: Guidelines for Government are implemented
and used and are used to assist Ministries and all other organizations (Govt. &
NGOs) for disaster risk management.

The flow chart of the Disaster Management Regulative Framework is shown below (Fig. 2):
Fig. 2: Disaster Management Regulative Framework.

vi. National to local emergency planning: It is an umbrella plan which provides overall
guideline for all concerned sectors and institutions at all levels to prepare and
implement their area of roles specific plans. The MoFDM takes the lead role in
disaster risk reduction and emergency management planning. There would be
I). Hazard specific plans.
II). Area at different levels (administrative unit) specific plans.

vii. Disaster Management Plans: The Disaster Management Plan is shown below (Fig. 3):
Fig. 3: Disaster Management Plan.

2.2. Existing (old) Signal System

Earlier there was an Inland River Port Warning System comprising of four signals of which
Riverine Cautionary Signal Number One and Riverine Warning Signal Number Two were
used for nor’westers or thunder storms (i.e. for Kal Baishakhi). When gusty or gusty/squally
winds (speed 50-60 kms/hr) were likely from some weather system namely thunder storm,
river ports were advised to hoist Cautionary Signal Number One. But when squally winds
(speed 61 kms/hr or more) were likely from some weather system namely thunder storm
(severe nor’wester or Kal Baishakhi), river ports were advised to hoist Riverine Warning
Signal Number Two.
In the Inland River Port Warning System, Danger Signal Number Three was used for a weak
or moderate cyclonic storm while Danger Signal Number Four was used for a severe cyclonic
storm/ severe cyclonic storm with a core of hurricane winds / Super Cyclone. But for
maritime ports there were Distant Cautionary Signal Number One and Distant Warning
Signal Number Two for cyclones in the distant Bay of Bengal. In the Maritime Warning
Signal System, Danger Signal Numbers Five through Seven were used for a weak or
moderate cyclonic storm depending upon the landfall point. Where as Great Danger Signal
Numbers Eight through Ten were used for a severe cyclonic storm/ severe cyclonic storm
with a core of hurricane winds / Super Cyclone depending upon the landfall point. Local
Cautionary Signal Number Three was used when maritime ports were likely to be threatened
by squally weather or by Kal Baishakhi. Local Warning Signal Number Four was used when
there was a disturbance in the Bay of Bengal from which a cyclonic storm might form. Hence,
confusion in hearing/listening was likely between inland and maritime signals as reported by
the NGOs, prominent personalities and media. With a view to removing the confusion, the
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh formed a Committee with Disaster
Management Bureau (DMB) under the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management
(MoFDM) as the coordinator. The previous Standing Orders for Disasters (SOD) was
renamed as the Standing Orders for Disaster Management (SOD) and the new signal system
came into being after having critical reviews for more than twelve years. At last it was
Okayed by the Care Taker Government in 2008.

2.3. New Signal System

New Signal System for maritime and river ports is a unified signal system based on the wind
speed where maritime and inland signals have been synchronized. Steps in the Beaufort scale
have been maintained as before while devising new signal system. Now there are eight sets of
signals. They are tabulated below:

New Maritime Signals New Riverine Signals

Sl. Signal Wind Signal Wind
No. Speed Speed
(KPH) (KPH)
1. Distant Cautionary Signal No. I 51-61 Not applicable
2. Distant Warning Signal No. II 62-88 Not applicable
3. Local Cautionary Signal No. III 40-50 Local Cautionary Signal No. III 40-50
4. Warning Signal No. IV 51-61 Warning Signal No. IV 51-61
5. Danger Signal No. VI 62-88 Danger Signal No. VI 62-88
6. Great Danger Signal No. VIII 89-117 Great Danger Signal No. VIII 89-117
7. Great Danger Signal No. IX 118- Great Danger Signal No. IX 118-
170 170
8. Great Danger Signal No. X >170 Great Danger Signal No. X >170
3. Warning dissemination mechanisms

Without proper and timely dissemination of the EWS, mitigation of sufferings of people and
reduction of loss of lives and properties can not be achieved. The dissemination plan of the
EWS is given below:

Fig. 4: Dissemination plan for Early Warning System (EWS).

4. Early Warning System (EWS) can save millions

In respect of raising public awareness, motivation and effective early warning dissemination
at the community level; the loss of lives and properties of the community can be reduced.

During the November 1970 cyclone, with a wind speed of 223 km/hr, almost 500,000 people
lost their lives in the coastal area. Whereas, in April 1991 cyclone, with a wind speed of 225
km/hr, only 1,38,882 people lost their lives although the population in the coastal area has
been doubled since 1970. In November 2007 cyclone ‘SIDR’ of the similar intensity hit the
coastal region with a wind speed of 220 km/hr and only 3,347 people lost their lives. The
Disaster Management System in Bangladesh thus proved the effectiveness and fruitfulness of
the EWS and proper and timely dissemination.
5. Tools for EWS

The present state-of-the-art technique in weather forecasting is the Numerical Weather

Prediction (NWP) technique. Since thunderstorms or tornados are meso-scale phenomena (in
the order of 102 km) they can be well captured by non-hydrostatic meso-scale model (NMM)
like Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) - Advanced research WRF (ARW). To obtain
the higher accuracy in forecasting local data need to be assimilated into the WRF-ARW
Model. Again to get high resolution spatial and upper-air data density of observatories is to
be increased. Data from the Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) have to be accessed on real-
time basis through sustainable TCP/IP or other suitable network and be made available to the
NWP System. Initial Condition (IC) and Lateral Boundary Condition (LBC) data may be
downloaded from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), European Centre
for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) or Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

5. Conclusion

To achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) and tackle the Climate Change Issues,
Bangladesh has to go a long way in order to make Early Warning System (EWS) for Disaster
Management System (DMS) a success. For the sustainable economic development best
efforts are needed in terms of efficient disaster management. As the disasters, many a times,
stop the wheel of development, good governance, good understanding about disasters and
good management of disasters are required.