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 7

The world this week United States

9 A summary of political 23 Treating mental illness
- and business news -
24 The House speaker mess
Leaders -
25 Mike Flynn's flying circus
26 Roe, your own way
11
- The Middle East -
Where will this end? 26 A proper pint
-
America's Republicans 27 Teaching teachers to shoot
12
- A goat rodeo
-
28 Lexington When J oe
A Polish election Biden's experience counts
- Populists can be beaten
12

13 Banl{s inAmerica The Americas

- A brush with Basel 29 Argentina's election
and Britain's NHS 32 Bernardo Arévalo's woes
On the cover
14 AI
- Data for better health -
32 Sanctions lifted
In our six-page special briefing -
section we look at the daunting Letters
challenges in Gaza: the 16 On life sciences,
destruction, the obstacles a motorists, invisible
ground invasion will face and spouses, wealth
the options for the territory's
Asia
management, longevity,
long-term future, after page 16.
Joe Biden's approach to backing
Nobel prizes, brevity -
33 [apan's remate islands
34 India and free love
Israel is facing its most severe -
Briefing 35 Gay rights in India
test: Lexington, page 28. The -
17 Israel's assault on Gaza 35 Race in Australasia
EU's incoherent response to the
No place for a war -
36 Australia's coal habit
crisis in Israel: Cha rlemagne,
20 Graphic detail -
page 49. Can Israel destroy
Ha mas without causing an
- Destruction in Gaza
36 South Korean chipmakers
-
37Banyan India-Pakistán
economic catastrophe? 21 Gaza's long-term future - cricket
Page 59. Six books that shed - When the shooting stops
light on a century of hostility
China
in the Middle East, page 75
38 Feminists regrou p
-
Are American esos overpaid? 39 Training foreign engineers
The soari ng pay of America's -
40 Hong Kong's sprawling
bosses is again under fire: mansions
•

Schumpeter, page 58
41 Chaguan The ghost of
- ZhengHe
The holes in export controls
America's allies are the problem,
Middle East & Africa
page53
42 Escaping conflict traps
Argentina's radical option 43 The ruin of Khartoum
Javier Milei still leads the polls. -
44 To save 200,000 wornen's
But the country needs more than lives ayear
dollarisation, page 29 Bartleby The role of luck
in careers, companies and
A race toread the Herculaneum compensation, paqe 54
scrolls Al could help unearth a
trove of lost classical texts,
page 67

7 The digital element ofyour

subscription means that you
can search our archive, read
all of our daily journalism and
listen to audio versions of our
stories. Visit ecanamist.cam
�� Contents continues overleaf
8

Euro pe Science & technology

45 Tusk triumphs in Poland 67 Al and ancient texts
-46 Beefing up Ukraine 69 spelunkíng and the
clima te
-47 Navalny punished again
47 Meloni and Le Pen 69 Tl1e return of the bedbug
- 70 Why a coin toss is not fair
48 Electric trouble -
49 Charlemagne Adrift over
Gaza
Culture
71 Cancel culture
Britain -
so A giant health study 72 wnv films are longer
-51 -
73 Back Story David
-
Collating patients' data - Beckharn's secret
52 Bagehot Tory rationing
- 74 Indian gurus
-
74 What to do with
- unfinished art
75 Books on Israel and
Business Palestine
53 rne geopolitics of tech
Economic & financial indicators
54 Bartleby Luck and careers
77 Statistics on 42 economies
55 Meet India's mega-wealthy
-
56 Canon takes on ASML
-56 Oíl superrnajors' bets
Obituary
-58 Schumpeter Are America's
78 Ofir Libstein, a mayor with impossible dreams
-
CEOS overpaid?

Finance & economics

59 F inancial war
60 China's malaise
61 Hidden bad loans
-
-63 Buttonwood Dr Copper
62 Crypto's fu ture

-
64 Pree-market law
65 Free exchange
- Trustbusters v big tech

Thc
Economist

Volume 449 Number 9368

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The world this week Politics The Economist October zist 2023 g

The French government put destroying nine helicopters. Pro-democracy campaigners

the country on the highest America silently provided the in Indonesia were outraged
state of alert after an Islamist missiles to Ukraine, rather by the decision of the Consti-
extremist stabbed a teacher to than announcing their deploy- tutional Court to add an
death. Soldiers were drafted in ment, apparently to take the exception to a law that bars
to boost security and all pro- Russians by surprise. people under the age of 40
Palestinian demonstrations from running for president.
were banned. In Brussels a The court said that people
supporter of Islamic Sta te shot Friends in need who have been elected to
dead two swedish nationals. In Vladimir Putin visi ted China, regional posts can now run,
Illinois a six-year-old boy died where he tried to gain su pport which would allow the 36-
after being stabbed 26 times by for his war on Ukraine, The year-old son of the ou tgoing
J oe Biden's trip to Israel to lend his mother's landlord. The Russian president went to a incumbent, J oko Widodo, to
support after the terrorist mother was wounded. Police summit held by Xi Jinping, his contest Pebruary's election.
attack by Hamas was overshad- say they were targeted beca use Chinese counterpart, on Chi-
owed by a blast ata hospital in they were Muslim. na's Belt and Road Initiative. Two tourists and theír guide
Gaza, which the Palestinians European delega tes walked out were killed in a terrorist at-
said killed hundreds of people. Anti-Semitic incidents and of one meeting he attended. tack in Uganda that the gov-
America and Israel pointed to "celebrations" of the attack by But not Viktor Orban. The ernment blamed on the Allied
intelligence tha t suggests the Ramas were reported through- Hungarian prime minister Democratic Forces, which
explosion was caused by a ou t Europe. London's police shook Mr Pu tin's hand, the declares allegiance to Islamic
missile launched by Islamic force reported a big rise in first EU leader to do so since State. The attack was in the
[ihad, another militant group, assaults on Jewish targets. the start of the war. Queen Elizabeth National
that misfired, falling in the Rishi Sunak, the British prime Park, which is close to the
hospital's car park. Ramas and minister, reminded people Republicans in America's border with Congo.
many Arab countries said an that showing support for the House of Representatives
Israelí strike was to blame. The terrorist group could be pun- continued to squabble over Daniel No boa was elected as
incident triggered outrage in ishable by a prison sentence. choosing a new speaker. After Ecuador's president. The
the Arab world, leading Jordan spurning Steve Scalise, they 35-year-old businessman is a
to cancel a summit between were unenthusiastic about centrist who has promised to
Mr Biden and the leaders of rallying around Jim Jordan. reduce crime, the big issue
J ordan and Egypt and during the election. A presi-
Mahmoud Abbas, president of Voters in Australia decisively dential candidate was assassi-
the Palestinian Authority. rejected a constitutional nated in August. Mr Noboa's
amendment that would have victory is a rejection of the
rne humanitarian situation created an advisory body for leftist faction aligned with
worsened in Gaza, where about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Rafael Correa, a disgraced
3,500 people have been killed, Island people. The referend um former president.
according to the Palestinians, on the Voice, as it was dubbed,
amid Israel's retaliation for the was beaten by 61o/o to 39% and Representatives from Nicolás
Ramas attack. Under mount- failed in all six Australian Maduro's autocratic regime in
ing international pressure, In Poland the liberal Civic states. Critics of the proposal Venezuela and the opposition
Israel will allow food, water Coalition and its allies won said it would have undermined met in Barbados, their first
and medicine to cross from enough seats atan election to the principie of legal equality meeting in nearly ayear.
Egypt to southern Gaza, where forma majority in parliament, by favouring one racial group Sorne progress was made as
the population has moved to heralding a big shift in govern- in the constitu tion. the two sides agreed to a
take shelter. King Abd ullah of ment. The conservative Law timeline for an election in
Jordan warned that the "región and Justice (Pis) party, a thorn The centre-right National Party 2024. After the talks America
is on the brink of falling into in the EU's side since gaining won New Zealand's general relaxed sanctions on the
the abyss", but was adamant power in 2015, carne first but election, ending the six-year country's oil sector.
that his country and Egypt will struggle to rule, even with rule of the Labour Party,
would not accept refugees. the support of a far-right party. formerly led by Jacinda
It is expected to get the first Ardern. Christopher Luxon, Don't try this at home
Israel's ground troops were stab at forming a government; the incoming prime minister, Pepper X was named as the
poised to enter Gaza. They talks could take weeks. Donald will forma coali tion wi th the world's hottest chilli by
have been held back in part Tusk, the leader of the Civic ACT party, which is classically Guinness World Records. The
beca use of fears that Hiz- Coalition, called on the coun- liberal. But with a slim major- previous record was held by
bullah, a powerful mili tia try's Pis-allied president to ity he may have to rely on the the Carolina Reaper. Both are
based in Lebanon, will launch swiftly start the process. populist N ew Zealand First grown by Ed Currie (no pun
a big assault across the border Party for support. intended), a farmer from
into northern Israel at the Ul<raine has used long-range South Carolina. Pepper X rates
moment when Israeli soldiers ATACMS missiles for the first India's Supreme Court de- at nearly 2.7m Scoville Heat
are focused on Gaza. Hizbullah time, according to Volodymyr clined to legalise gay marriage, Units (a jalapeño is around
is backed by Iran, which has Zelensky, the country's presi- accepting the governrnent's 3,000 to 8,000). Mr Currie
warned that an "axis" of den t. The missiles were report- argument that only Parliament said he was in severe pain
militias is ready to open "mul- edly used to attack Russian could decide the status of with cramps for an hour after
tiple fronts" against Israel. bases in east Ukraine, marriage in the country. eating a whole one.
1
º The world this week Business The Economist October zist 2023

Tesla issued a downbeat earn-

ings report. N et profit tell by
A net 9m new subscribers
joined Netflix in the third
-
China's GDP
Quarterly, 0/o increase on a year earlier
Andrew Bailey, the bank's
governor, has said; the fight
44 °/o in the third q uarter, ye ar quarter, the largest number against inflation is not over.
6
on year; its operating margin, a since the pandemic, which the
closely tracked measure of the company attributed in part to N et in come at Goldman Sachs
4
difference between its income its crackdown on sharing tell again in the third quarter,
and expenses, plunged to 7.6o/o. passwords. It also raised its 2
the eighth consecutive quarter
The carmaker also said that prices. The monthly cost in of declining profit. The bank
although it will start delivering America of a premium pack- o made $1.9bn, down by 36%
its long-delayed Cybertruck to age, which includes high-res 2022 2023
compared with the same per-
customers in N ovember it 41< streaming, is now $22.99. Source: Refinitiv Datastream
iod last year. David Solomon,
could take up to 18 months for its chief executive, has report-
the vehicle to turna profit. China's GDP was 4.9°/o larger edly given up his hobby as a DJ,
lnjection rejection in the third quarter than in the following interna! criticism
The American government Plunging demand for covid same period ayear ago, a faster that it was distracting him
tightened its ban on selling vaccines continued to take its pace of growth than analysts from his main job.
cl1i ps to China for use in toll on drug companies. Pfizer had forecast. September's
artificial intelligence, extend- slashed its forecast of revenue growth in industrial output By contrast, profit atJPMorgan
ing the rules to capture sales of for the year by $9 bn and will and retail sales also beat ex- Chase climbed by 35%, to
chips that had previously book a $5.5bn write-down in pectations. Officials down- $13.2bn. America's biggest
fallen just outside the ban's the third quarter beca use of played talk of an economic bank was boosted by almost
technical parameters. The the "lower-than-expected recovery, warning that "the $23bn in revenue from net
clampdown is bad news for utilisation" of the shots. The externa! environment is be- interest income, the difference
Nvidia, which said that the share prices of Pfizer and coming more complex," The between what a bank earns in
new restrictions would apply Biol-l'Iech, which developed a property market is very fragile, interest on its loans and what
to its H8oo Al chip. Chinese vaccine with Pfizer, have fallen as speculation mounts that it pays out on deposits.
tecl1 companies have been by more than a third since the Country Garden, the country's
rushing to buy up the modified start of the year. Moderna's biggest developer, may have
chip in case of a prohibition. stock has lost half its value. defaulted on its dollar debt. Café culture
Meanwhile, Nvidia announced A financia! analyst lost his
a partnership with Foxconn, a Rite Aid, one of America's Britain's annual inflation rate claim for dismissal against
Taiwanese manufacturer, to biggest pharrnacy chains, filed held steady in September, at Citigroup for claiming a false
build data centres powered by for bankruptcy protection. The 6.7%. Food prices rose at the expense for lunch. The man
Nvidia's technology. company is struggling to cope slowest pace since June 2022. said he alone had consumed
with a huge debt pile, falling The core rate, which excludes the two coffees, two sand-
The race for dominance in Al revenues and the cost of litiga- energy and food, eased to 6.1%. wiches and two pasta dishes,
was thrown into focus when tion associated with the opioid The Bank of England left in- though i t turned out his partn-
Baidu announced that its crisis. It has already closed terest rates on hold at its most er had joined him. Citi forbids
ERNIE 4 chatbot was now as sorne shops and will shut recent meeting, and markets expensing meals for spouses.
good as openxr's GPT-4. The others. Around 45,000 jobs are betting i t will do so again. The analyst specialises in
Chinese tech giant showed off are at risk. "Let's not get carried away," financia! crime.
ERNIE's capabilities atan event
in Beijing by getting it to com-
plete tasks, sucl1 as writing a
martial-arts novel. ERNIE has THE FOG
45m users, a fraction of OFWAR
Chato PT's isorn, though the
American bot was launched
severa! months earlier.

Microsoft at last completed its

takeover of Activision
Blizzard, the biggest ever in
the video-game ind ustry,
21 months after it was first
announced. The deal had been
resisted by antitrust regula-
tors; Microsoft quickly sealed
the acquisition after Britain's
competition authority
approved a revised proposal.
America's Federal Trade Com-
mission lost its attempt to
block the transaction in court,
but it is pressing ahead with its
own legal hearing and may still
challenge the deal.
 Leaders 11
The
Economist

Where will this end?

Only America can pull the Middle East back from the brink, The stakes could hardly be higher

H
ow RAPIDLY things fall apart. The deadly blast in Gaza at Ah- have chosen to sabotage their people's long-term interests.
li Arab hospital on the evening of October rzth killed many For Iran, that looks like victory. For years it has hada strategy
Palestinians who were taking shelter. Despite strong evidence of financing, arming and training proxies like Hamas and Hiz-
that their deaths were caused by the failure of a Palestinian rock- bullah. It calculates that violence and mayhem weaken Israel
et laden with fuel, Arab countries rushed to condemn Israel. and discredit Arab governments. If the sight of America fighting
Hizbullah, a heavily armed Lebanese militia, is lurching closer Hizbullah alongside Israel leads to a rupture of Mr Biden's rela-
to outright war with Israel. Bridges built painstakingly between tions with the Arab world, an exultant Iran will have built the
Israel and its Arab neighbours lie in ruins. foundations for its own regional dominance.
How fragile are the forces trying to hold things together. Fif- Russia and China are winning, too. There is a perception in
teen hours after the blast, President Joe Biden landed in Israel, the global south that this complex story is actually a simple one
an old man with the weight of the world on his shoulders. Mr Bi- of oppressed Palestinians and Israelí colonisers. China and Rus-
den's diplomacy is a geopolitical moment. As well as signalling sia will exploit this caricature to argt1e that America is revealing
grief and support for Israel, it brings into focus how much this its true contempt for brown-skinned people in Gaza and its hy-
crisis matters to the Middle East and to America (see Briefing). pocrisy over human rights and war crimes-just as they claim it
For the past half-century the United States has been the only did by supposedly provoking a war in Ukraine.
country willing and able to bring any kind of order to the region. What can Mr Biden do? His analysis must start with the need
Regardless of the many failures of American policy there, in- for peace between the Palestinians and Israelís and a recogni-
cl uding in Iraq and Syria, Mr Biden and his secretary of state, An- tion that there can be none foras long as Hamas governs Gaza-
tony Blinken, have once again taken up that burden. Death and not after it has demonstrated that it puts Jew-hatred befare any
disease hang over Gaza. The poison is spreading across the Arab other goal. Gaza city is honeycombed by tunnels. Destroying Ha-
world. They do not have long. mas's ability to wage war therefore requires a ground offensive.
The imminent danger is on that second front in the north of Everything follows from the prosecution of that ground war.
Israel. The death toll at Ahli Arab means that Hizbullah and its The tragedy of Ahli Arab validates the cynical calculation that
lranian sponsors risk losing face if they fail to Palestinian casualties help Harnas by under-
avenge lost Palestinian lives. Hizbullah will mining support for Israel. The Israeli arrny
now also have strong backing in the Arab world needs to be seen to spare civilians, not least be-
if it attacks, If Israel concludes war is inevitable, cause it needs time to destroy Harnas's tunnels.
i t may strike first. America has tasked two air- Gaza is on the brink. Poor sanitation threatens
craft-carriers with deterring Hizbullah and Iran epidemic disease. Israel has at last agreed that
from opening a second front. If they defy it, it sorne aid can cross into Gaza. Much more will
should use them for a show of force. be needed. If Egypt continues to bar refugees,
A second danger is of Arab-lsraeli relations Israel should go further by creating havens on
being put back decades. Amid Israel's unprecedented bombing, its own territory in the Negev, supervised by UN agencies.
Arabs remember previous wars in which Israel hit schools and It is also vital to spell out what comes after the invasion. Isra-
hospitals. Israel has imposed a total siege of Gaza; its president el needs to show that its fight is with the terrorists, not the peo-
has said all Gazans share responsibility. Despite Israel's excess- ple of Gaza. It should pledge a new beginning after the war, with
es, Arab leaders could have called for calm and for an indepen- a programme of rebuilding and the promise that it will not stran-
den t investigation of the hospital blast. What looks like the mass gle Gaza's economy. It should support a new Palestinian consti-
killing of Palestinians by Palestinians ought to have redoubled tution and new elected leaders. All this would be easier under a
their efforts to safeguard Gaza's civilians and spurred them on to new Israelí government voted in when the war is done.
create a regional plan for a better Palestinian future. Even if Mr Biden can persuade Israel to take these steps, that
Instead, the blast has deepened hatred and grievances. In leaves the hardest question of all. How to provide security in
words that cannot easily be taken back, Israel's Arab partners post-Hamas Gaza? Israel cannot occupy the enclave permanent-
heaped blame upon the Jewish state. Jordan immediately can- ly. That idea was rightly abandoned in 2005. An international
celled a summit between Mr Biden and Arab leaders that had commitment is therefore needed. Because it is not clear who
been the best hope for regional diplomacy. Egypt is more re- would join this, Mr Biden should start building a coalition now.
solved than ever to keep temporary refugees out of the Sinai, The more Israel shows the Arab world that it is serious about
partly for fear of being seen to abet Israel in what Palestinians protecting civilians and planning for the day after, the more
worry is a plan to empty Gaza permanently. likely Arab leaders are to play their part.
This is a lamentable failure of leadership, with profound re- This is a tall order. Much can and will go wrong. Ordinary Ar-
gional and global implications. Most Arab governments loathe abs' ingrained anti-Zionism will gnaw at their leaders' willing-
Hamas and its backer, Iran. Countries like the United Arab Emir- ness to help. But the alternative is the decay that feeds scavenger
ates and Saudí Arabia need stability and benefit from good rela- states like Iran and Russia. Mr Biden is the only leader who can
tions with Israel. However, they are so wary of testing their citi- pull things back together. If he fails, and the securi ty of the Mid-
zens' anger with the truth about the rocket's origin that they dle East crumbles, it will be a catastrophe for America, too. •
12 Leaders The Economist October zist 2023

American politics

Speaking of goat rodeos

How House Republicans could yet, surprisingly, further the national interest

HE VIEW of the world from the White House end of Penn- the House has had a temporary speaker, Patrick McHenry of
T sylvania Avenue looks like this: Hamas has attacked Israel,
one of Arnerica's closest allies. The biggest war in Europe since
N orth Carolina. The hitherto obscure Mr Me Henry has yet to re-
ceive the memo about his party being the tribunes of working-
1945 is raging, and Ukraine needs American support to prevent it class Americans, and has never been seen in public without a
from being swallowed by Vladimir Putin. Taiwan also needs bow-tie on. Yet Mr McHenry may also, by a bizarre sequence of
help. Anda government shutdown is looming. Meanwhile at the events, now find himself in a position to change the fate of more
other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, the world looks like a lot of than one country.
men in suits arguing about who should be in charge of the meet- Both parties are keen to support Israel. There is also majority
ing. House Republicans have spent two weeks squabbling about support in the House for continuing to arm Ukraine and fund
who should be speaker, Congress is paralysed. the American government. But the Republicans who run the
It has been a poorly timed piece of self-indulgence. Fortu- House have long refused to allow bills to come to a vote unless
nately, there is a chance of a reprieve. That could mean a Con- they enjoy the support of a majority of Republican lawmakers.
gress that works slightly better, at least temporarily, plus a fresh So matters of great importance have been left to fester.
package of military support for Israel and for One possible (and indeed plausible) sol-
Ukraine (and perhaps for Taiwan too). The gov- ution is that support for Israel is packaged to-
ernment may even stay open. gether with support for Ukraine and Taiwan,
To recap, on October 3rd Kevin McCarthy, the sorne more money for border security anda bill
House s peaker, was sacked by a small faction of to keep the governmen t funded un til this time
Republicans led by Matt Gaetz, an elaborately next year (see United States section).
coiffured nepo-politician who seemed to be The principies of good governance suggest
acting out of personal animus. With Mr McCar- these matters should be considered one by one.
thy gone, Steve Scalise, an affable congressman The dealrnaking required to get them through
from Louisiana who has spent a decade climbing the Republican the House, however, suggests lumping them together. Given the
leadership ladder, tried his luck. He was rejected by the House necessary authority, Mr McHenry could shepherd such a bill
Republican caucus, too. through with support from Democrats. And, because he <loes not
Then Jim J ordan, a congressman from Ohio who is known for officially have the job of speaker, he cannot easily be removed by
his dogged support of Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the his own side, as Mr McCarthy was.
election of 2020 and his delight in shutting down the govern- Sorne combination of Republicans and Democrats should
ment at every opportunity, put himself forward for the position. grant Mr McHenry the authority, at least for now, to bring bills to
This would have been like placing the most unco-operative the floor. All it would take is a simple majority. For pragmatic Re-
member of a team in charge of running it, in the hope that the re- publicans who are fed up with being at the merey of their party's
sult would be less disruption. Mr Jordan was rejected as well. least constructive lawmakers, it is an opportunity to break the
The Republicans have such a thin majority in the House that logjam. They should take it. Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine need
once the regicide has begun, i t is hard to end the bloodletting. American help. America needs a Congress that can consider leg-
While this abdication of responsibility has been under way, islation. Right now it has urgent work to do. •

Poland

Populists can be beaten

A victory for the rule of law in the heart of Europe
no NOT get much to cheer them up these days, but Following a run of successes for illiberal populists-in Hun-
L
IBERALS
the news from Warsaw this week qualifies. Confounding gary and Italy last year, and in Turkey in May, not to mention a
fears that many disenchanted voters might simply stay at home, sharp recent rise in popularity for Germany's AfD-the result is a
Po les turned out in record numbers on October 15th to vote down relief. To understand why it is such good news, consider what
the populist-nationalist Law and Justice (Pis) party that has run would have happened if Pis had managed to stay on.
the country for the past eight years. They gave what looks like a Four more years of Pis would have meant three kinds of prob-
solid mandate for government toan opposition alliance headed lems. First, Pis would have continued its creeping capture of the
by Donald Tusk, a former prime minister and a former head of country's supposedly independent institutions, such as the ju-
the European Council to boot (see Europe section). The alliance diciary. It has installed its own hand-picked judges in senior po-
won 248 seats in the 460-member Sejm, or lower house of parlia- sitions, in particular taking over all 15 slots in Poland's Constitu-
ment, and 66 of 100 seats in the Senate, the weaker upper house. tional Tribunal, the country's most important court since it can jj-
 The Economist October zist 2023 Leaders 13

� strike down laws it deems unconstitutional, as well as in a coun- Much can still go wrong. The opposition agreed to forma gov-
cil that vets all lowerjudges. Ithas turned state broadcasters into ernment if it won, but there is no guarantee that this will pro-
megaphones for Pis propaganda. It has deployed its people to ceed smoothly; the alliance consists of nine parties whose agen-
lead state-run industrial enterprises, such as Orlen, an oil com- das run from radical-left to centre-right. Andas prime minister,
pany, which conveniently slashed the price of fuel ahead of the Mr Tusk will encounter many obstacles, starting with the presi-
election. It has been building a patronage system, whereby even dent, Andrzej Duda, who though nominally independent is a Pis
humble government jobs in towns it controls depend on sup- ally. Mr Duda can veto all legislation, and the opposition will not
porting, or at least not criticising, the ruling party. have the votes to override him. Mr Tusk will also bump up
There would, second, have been reason to fear a continuation against the Pis-stacl<ed Constitutional Tribunal; its judges are
and perhaps a deepening of ris's illiberal domestic agenda. Its appointed for nine-year terms. Short of changing the constitu-
judges have made abortion illegal except in cases of rape or in- tion, there will be no easy way to get rid of them; so Mr Tusk may
cest orto protect the life or health of the mother, and it started find his bills struck down. Winkling out ris's judges from lower
rewriting textbooks to make them more "patriotic", courts will be tricky too, and would invite the same criticisms
Third, a re-emboldened Pis would have continued in its com- that liberals used to make of Pis.
bative stance towards the EU, where it often teams up with Vik- Mr Tusk will be able to count on goodwill from Europe, but
tor Orbari's government in Hungary, a populist alliance that was this is no panacea. Sorne €35bn ($37bn) of covid-recovery funds
strengthened by the recent return to power of Robert Pico in Slo- owed to Poland, and even more from the regular budget, are
vakia. The central Europeans have been hostile to schemes to blocked because of the row over the rule of law; the European
share responsibility for dealing with illegal migration, and have Commission would be happy to unblock it, but first the Poles
backed each other in disputes with Brussels over the rule of law, must meet the conditions it has laid down. These obstacles are
which the populists tend to flout. Most alarming, given its hith- exactly why creeping authoritarianism, Pis- or Orban-style, is so
erto excellent record of supporting Ukraine, the Pis government dangerous. Turning it around will be hard. But at least a start can
has recently started to play politics with the war, blocking the now be made. And opposition parties around Europe and the
import of grain from its neighbour in defiance of EU rules. world can see that populists can be beaten. •

America's banks

A brush with Basel

Plans to stuff banks with more capital are imperfect but necessary

MERICA SPENT more than a decade trying to make its banks The new proposal lowers the asset threshold to Sioobn, requir-
A safer, only for several of them to collapse suddenly earlier ing banks of SVB's size to value accurately at least sorne of their
this year. So it is no surprise that regulators are trying once again bonds. As a result many will have to build up capital, which
to shore up the system. Their latest proposals would on average should help prevent a repeat of the debacle.
increase by 16o/o the amount of high-quality equity capital banks Por the biggest banks, the argument is less clear-cut. They did
would need to fund their operations, among a litany of other not suffer during the spring crisis, and instead hoovered up de-
changes designed to bring Arnerica's rules in line with prin- posits that fled from smaller institutions. They are considerably
ciples agreed globally. If the package+dubbed the "Basel 3 end- better capitalised than they were a decade ago. And because
garne" -is implemented, banks, which have been reporting their depositors remain loyal even if they do n't pay much inter-
their profits over the past week, will have to spend years build- est, higher rates have served mainly to boost their profits by rais-
ing up their safety buffers.
Bankers are furious. "What person in what - Russell 3000 index
ing the amount they can charge on loans. In
earnings reports released since October 13th
ivory tower thinks that is a rational thing to Jan 3rd 2023=100 JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup all re-
120
do?" asked Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan corded rising net interest margins in the third
Chase, of one of the rule changes last month. 100
quarter of 2023, fitting a pattern whereby the
Sorne of the industry's complaints about the de- larger the bank, the more likely it has been to
tails are reasonable. Overall, however, the in- 80 benefit from higher interest rates.
creased safety brought about by more capital is J F M A M J JASO Capital also comes with downsides. It is a
worth the costs. more expensive means of funding loans than
The benefits of the reformare most obvious for the type of debt or deposits, and sorne of those costs get passed on to bor-
bank that has been vulnerable this year. Silicon Valley Bank rowers. Sorne of the new rules might make financia! intermedi-
(svn), which had $212bn in assets, collapsed in March having ation in important markets harder. If regulators neglect shadier
suffered enormous losses on its bond portfolio as interest rates parts of the financia! system, activity could migrate there to es-
rose. As a bank with assets of less than $7oobn, it was exempt cape their scrutiny. Mr Dimon is right that sorne of the new
from having to mark its bond portfolio to market when calculat- edicts are poorly designed.
ing its safety buffer, even if those bonds were categorised as Yet the move towards bigger safety buffers is nonetheless de-
holdings that may be sold (rather than held until they mature). sirable. The big banks did not collapse in the spring, but it is they
Only when depositors fled from SVB, forcing it to sell bonds ata whose failure would cause an economic catastrophe-and,
loss, was its capital cushion revealed to be an accounting fiction. probably, land taxpayers with the biggest bail-out costs. By one ��
14 Leaders The Economist October zist 2023

� estima te the global financia! crisis of 2007-09 cost every Amer- banks are enduring a profit squeeze, because they are having to
ican $70,000 in income over their lifetimes. So painful are bank- pay more interest to retain depositors, or now depend on short-
ing crashes that studies which attempt to weigh the costs and term borrowing at the prevailing high rate of interest. Use of a
benefits of capital often call for a much fatter cushion than supposedly temporary emergency lending programme at the
would be in place even if the Basel 3 endgame is implemented. Federal Reserve, for example, has crept up over the summer. The
It is no surprise that bankers object to more capital, which is facility has outstanding balances of $109bn.
rather like being forced to buy insurance against unlikely Bond portfolios also continue to shrink in value. By the end
events. But society as a whole benefits enorrnously when that of J11ly, banks' unrealised securities losses were worth $558bn;
insurance is in place. The strength of America's economy means since then, long-term bonds have sold off further as investors
that now is a good time to try to make the system safer, beca use have bet on interest rates staying higher for longer, reducing the
building safety buffers is harder than maintaining them. chance of a reprieve. Por many banks the best path to viability
Even if the proposals are enacted, America's banking woes will be to find another institution willing to gobble them up. The
are far from over. The simplest way to build capital is to retain system that emerges will be more concentrated. Regulators are
profits rather than pay them out in dividends. Yet many small right to seek to make it less fragile, too. •

Al and health

Polishing the crown jewels

How to make Britain's National Health Service AI-ready

T THE HEART of Britain's publicly funded health-care system NHS, and possible riches for developers, but in the long run
A lies a contradiction. The National Health Service generates
and holds vast swathes of data on Britons' health, organised 11s-
would benefit the service and its patients. And if used outside
Britain, it might mean more revenue overall.
ing NHS numbers assigned to every person in its care. The sys- Comparability of data is also vital. Though everyone has an
tem enables world-leading studies, like the RECOVERY trial dur- NHS number, scans are often gathered and stored in different
ing the pandemic, which discovered treatments for covid-iq. ways in different places, rnaking it harder to create large datasets
You might suppose it to be a treasure trove for artificial-intelli- for machine learning. The NHS is poised to announce the winner
gence (AI) developers eager to bring their models to bear on im- of a contract to link up disparate datasets. This will help, but
proving human health. Yet if you put this to a developer theywill more is needed. Por example, scans of the same type should be
roll their eyes and tell you why all is notas rosy as it seems. carried out in ways similar enough to allow Al to detect signals
That is beca use the kinds of tabular data that inform clinical of health rather than differences in the scanning process.
trials-who took which drug, what the outcome was-are not The final pillar is consent. Though everyone wins if everyone
the same as those most useful for training machine-learning lets their data be fed to computers, Britons should be allowed to
models, such as scans or genomes, which hold more informa- opt out. Politicians must persuade people of the benefits of vast
tion about a patient. Much of this sort of NHS data is a mess, or- datasets in which everyone-young or old, black or white-is
ganised in ways which serve doctors treating represented. They must also reassure them that
patients, but not Al developers hoping to feed it their data will be anonymised, and not used to
to computers. Making it suitable for those mod- their detriment, for instance by insurers.
els is a task wi th which the N HS has not yet The NHS has no time to waste. The rewards
come to grips. It is often easier for those seek- on offer are better, earlier diagnosis of disease,
ing to organise these richer data to start from anda more productive, efficient system. That is
scratch, as with a vast data-collection exercise sorely needed when waiting lists are long and
now under way (see Britain section). funds squeezed. The NHS's position as a world
To open up the nns's data riches to Al, its leader in data-heavy trials faces a stiff threat
managers and political masters should turn to three principles: from health systems in other places, which are digitising rapid-
cleanliness, comparability and consent. Cleanliness starts with ly. Abu Dhabi, for example, is considering feeding health-care
hosting rich data in cloud-computing environments where the data into foundation models, and may open up its trained mod-
data are easier for Al developers to wrangle. Hospitals and clin- els to the world. Consumer technology-smartphones, watches
ics also need greater incentives to prepare their datasets forma- and devices connected to them-is fast improving its capacity to
chines. Most of the NHs's successful Al projects so far have relied peer inside the human body. It may one day begin to rival the
on the drive of dedicated, intellectually curious doctors who scanning capacity of the NHS, usurping it as the easiest and
have had to fight the system rather than be helped by it. Forging cheapest channel for the provision of algorithmic health care.
stronger links between the NHS and universities-and giving The economy stands to gain, too. NHS data could be the basis
PhD students easier access to datasets-is another good idea. of a thriving export industry, licensing Al tools to health-care
A more open approach to licensing intellectual property systems around the world. But if it <loes not clean up its digital
would also help. Too often, the NHS demands fees and terms so act, Britain will become a taker of new health technology, justas
steep and strict that they deter developers. It should see the big it has become a taker of American digital services like online
picture and accept smaller fees, to incentivise the building of search and social media. That would be a missed opportunity,
clean datasets. That will mean less money proportionally for the and the beginning ofthe end of the data primacy of the NHS. •
Executive focus 15

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Member of the Board and Director of

Resolution Policy Development and
Coordination

Single Resolution Board

Brussels

COM/2023/20096

Jhe role
You will be part ofthe senior management in a key organisation in the Banking Un ion,
and have the opportunity to make a significant contribution to promoting financia!
stability in the EU. You will be responsible for helping to shape the policies and
methodologies for bank resolution activities in a dynamic and growing agency. As
well as taking part in the SRB decision-making bodies and acting as a voting member,
you will lead and manage the policy coordination and development directorate with
approximately 70 staff members.

Aboutyou
You are a successful manager with proven experience in leading large
multidisciplinary teams and in motivating staff to perform to a high level. You have
in-depth knowledge of the banking and financia! sector, as well as knowledge of the
EU institutions and decision-making processes. You are highly experienced in one or
more of the following domains: policy setting and coordination in the regulation of
the financia! sector, and banking in particular or resolution of financia! institutions
or supervrsion.

About us
The Single Resolution Board (SRB) is the central resolution authority within the
Banking Union. lts mission is to ensure an orderly resolution of failing banks with
minimum impact on the real economy and the financia! systems of the participating
Member States and beyond. The SRB focuses on resolution planning and enhancing
bank resolvability.

The European Commission conducts the selection process. For the detailed job
description and how to apply, please visit the Official Journal of the EU:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=OJ:C 202300086

The closing time and date for the submission of applications for this call is
6 November 2023, 12.00 noon Brussels time.
16
Letters The Economist October zist 2023

to the less well off, who are there is always space for new Nobel for someone much more
Unleash the MHRA more Iikely to own non-com- entrants who are part of esoteric. Today, a writer like
The Society of Chemical pliant vehicles. Low-traffic the solution. Stephen King, whose work
Industry's recommendations neighbourhoods, where roads SID EFROMOVICH permeates our society in books
for the British life-science are blocked off or pedestri- Co-founder and CEO and also in movies and televi-
ind ustry are broadly welcome, anised, are popular with resi- Generation Pledge sion, will never be considered
and I hope that sorne of the dents, bu t they have aroused Millburn, New Jersey for a Nobel even though l1e has
more sensible ones will be significant ire in places like shaped American li terature
adopted by the government to Oxford, where they simply and culture.
support the industry's success make it difficult to get around. Live longer, in poverty Having your work actually
in the long run. Bu t nowhere Driving everywhere at Successive governments and read by the public should not
does sharon Todd, the society's zornph might save a few lives, businesses are failing to plan be a disqualification. It would
chief execu tive, nor the report, but why stop there? Even more for demographic change. We be nice if the Nobel prize-
mention one of the most crit- lives would be saved by reduc- are not prepared for the aged to givers did not act like an eru-
ica! and, at least historically, ing the limit still further, or live to 100, let alone 120 (Tech- dite faculty committee show-
globally competitive pieces of banishing cars altogether. nology Quarterly, September ing off its arcane knowledge
infrastructure that Britain has Sorne sort of balance would joth). Short-term reactive and instead took an author's
to drive forward innovation seem wise. And I don't agree policymaking has contributed impact into consideration.
(By Invitation, October 7tl1). that motorists are coddled. to workforce shortages, eco- THADHALL
That is Britain's progressive They fork out hugely for gov- nomic stagnation anda health Pittsburgh
and responsive Medicines and ernment fuel duties and road and care system failing to meet
Healthcare products Reg- taxes. Trains, by contrast, are our changing needs.
ulatory Agency (MHRA). massively subsidised. Future generations may not Brevity is the soul of wit
Right here and now, the JEREMY HI Cl(S only be bored-not least if they J ohnson (September joth)
biotech industry in Britain is London continue to be pushed out of reiterated the common advice
squealing under the signif- the employment rnarket soon for effective writing: keep
icant erosion of this crucial after they hit 50-they are also syntax simple, use short and
organisation's capacity to 'Er indoors likely to spend longer living in active sentences, with com-
engage with innovators, and in When it comes to the domi- poverty and with ill health. mon words, be brisk and clear.
providing essential ad vice and nance of invisible spouses, Innovations in biotech are one Yet writing is not only a tool
feedback. This is stifling pro- Rebecca, the unseen character thing, but finding solutions to for communication but an art
gress on world-beating med- in Daphne du Maurier's novel, the financial, heal th, housing, form that crea tes possibilities
icinal products and services pales against Mrs Mainwaring transport and leisure needs of for sophisticated expression.
that could transform patients' in "Dad's Arrny" (Back Story, our ageing society is the chal- Instead of complex sonnets,
lives globally, and support a September zjrd). lenge we must address first. Shakespeare might simply
growing British innovation MARI( I<NIGHT DAVID SINCLAIR have written "'I love you" and
ind ustry. A startu p that can't sevenoaks, J(ent Chief execu tive "Relationship: need to talk."
get MHRA advice will have an International Longevity Centre The English language and ali of
even harder time raising London i ts users would be vastly
funds, especially in the pre- Wealth and well-being impoverished if he had wri tten
sent constrained environment. The wealth-rnanagement You made no mention of two so effectively.
The government would be industry narrowly defines fictional examples of immor- PAGE NELSON
well advised to act very, very itself as one of only protecting tality gone right, Connor and Charlottesville, Virginia
quickly to address this serious capital ("Tl1e $1ootrn prize", Duncan MacLeod, the
risk to Britain's leading status September 9tl1). My organisa- Highlanders. Never-ending life Brevity is important in exams,
in this industry which, regard- tion, which asks people to is really only appropriate for too. I am reminded of an old
less of Ms Todd's noble propos- donate at least 1oo/o of their thrifty Scots who will use their Oxford essay question: "Was
als, could be set back by a inheritance to effective causes time to deal in antiques, Hegel a good philosopher? Be
decade or more. within the first five years of philosophise and occasionally brief", One smug student
SIMON GOLDMAN inheriting, interacts each day save us mortals from our wrote, simply, "Yes".
Cambridge, Cambridgeshire wíth ultra-high-net-wealth own mistakes. When the paper carne back,
families around the world. I<YLE MCCOY the examiner had given ita
We've observed a rising senti- Middleton, Wisconsin high mark but scribbled a
Road rage ment of dissatisfaction with comment in the margin: "This
Rishi sunak is misguided in wealth managers. was a good, brief answer. But a
his attempt to woo irritated With over $13otrn under Reward the bestsellers better, briefer answer would
British drivers, you say ("The management it is appalling It seems the goal of the Nobel have been No."
war on the war on motorists", that there are still gaps in prize in literature is to reward SAM WILLIAMS
October 7th). I am no supporter funding to solve climate authors whose works are not London
of the prime minister but I change, prevent pandemics widely read ("Prestigious,
think he has a point. The ultra- and much more. N ot only do lucrative and bonkers", Octo-
low emission zone, which banks not recognise this, they ber 14 th). By contrast, the Letters are welcome and should be
charges certain polluting cars actively fund the problem by science N obels are given to addressed to the Editor at
The Economist, TheAdelphi Building,
to drive in certain areas, made keeping dirty industries, like scientists whose work have 1-11 John Adam Street, London wc2N 6HT
sense in inner London bu t the coal, thriving. Clients can hada great impact in their Email: letters@economist.com
difference is marginal in outer easily move their money. If field. Charles Dickens would More letters are available at:
Economist.com/letters
London, and at significant cost wealth managers don't change have been passed over for a
 17

No place for a war tions among Palestinians that appeared to

bear out its account. Palestinian rockets
are built in makeshíft workshops in Gaza
to Iranian designs. Mid-air malfunctions
are common: the IDF claims that of over
7,000 rockets fired at Israel since October
7tl1, at least 450 have fallen within Gaza. Is-
rael points out that the images of the explo-
JERUSALEM
sion's aftermath show a charred car park at
As Israel's invasion of Gaza nears, the obstacles grow more daunting
the centre of the hospital compound, and
first time in more than 40 years, president. His presence was intended both lots of damage to adjacent buildings, but
F
OR THE
the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have to show support for Israel and to try to bro- no crater or structural devastation of the
called up their entire armoured corps, ker sorne sort of agreement to help Pales- sort that would be expected from the mu-
thought to number more than 1,000 tanks. tinian civilians trapped in Gaza. nitions it uses in air strikes.
Fully 360,000 reservists have also been As it happened, just as Mr Biden was Mr Biden backed Israel's version of
mustered, including a civil-defence force boarding Air Force One on October 17tl1 to events. American officials cited their own
of 20,000 people. The additional manpow- head to the region, a deadly explosion infra-red satellite data and intercepts as
er is intended to bolster the IDF's full-time racked a hospital in Gaza. The territory's evidence. But the tragedy nonetheless
personnel, of roughly 170,000. Although health ministry said that hundreds of peo- scotched hís hopes of reaching a sweeping
sorne of these troops are deployed along Is- ple had been killed. Hamas blamed bomb- deal wi th Arab leaders to get aid into Gaza
rael's northern border, to ward off a poten- ing by the IDF. Israel said a rocket fired by and at least sorne civilians out, despite Is-
tial attack from Lebanon by the militants of another Palestinian militant group, Islam- rael's blockade of the territory.
Hizbullah, more are massing in the south, ic [ihad, had malfunctioned and fallen on
near the Gaza Strip. Israel is poised to begin the hospital compound. Timing is ali
what is expected to be its biggest military Analysis of images and video footage by Any agreement depends on the acquies-
operation since the invasion of Lebanon in independent researchers suggested that Is- cence of Egypt, with which Gaza has a short
1982. Its leaders have said thcy are deter- rael's explanation was more plausible. The border and where deliveries of food and
mined to destroy Ramas, the militant IDF also released tracking data on rocket medica! equipment are piling up. But the
group that controls Gaza, in retaliation for launches and intercepted communica- carnage at the Ahli Arab hospital caused
its bloodthirsty rampage across southern such outrage in the Arab world that Jordan
Israel on October zth. quickly cancelled a summit where Mr Bi-
7 Also in this section
As The Economist went to press, no as- den was to meet Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi,
sault had materialised. The most obvious 20 Graphicdetail: Mappingdestruction Egypt's president, and Mahmoud Abbas,
reason for the dela y was the brief visit to Is- the leader of the Palestinian Au thority (PA).
21 Gaza's long-term future
rael on october isth ofJoe Biden, America's "There is no point in doing anything at ��
18 Briefing Israel and Gaza The Economist October zist 2023

� this time other than stopping this war," ing more accurate ones than Hamas can other slice of Palestinian territory, with
said Ayman Safadi, J ordan's foreign minis- deploy, which would severely tax Israel's roughly 2.7m inhabitants. The 40°/o of it
ter. In the end the best Mr Biden could do missile-defence systems. that Israel does not administer directly are
was secure an Israeli pledge not to obstruct The possibility of war with Hizbullah is in the hands of the PA. But Mr Abbas is
aid deliveries and an Egyptian one to let 20 looking likelier by the day, say Israeli in- weak and unpopular. After the tragedy at
trucks a day into Gaza. He also announced siders. Although Hizbullah might prefer the Ahli Arab hospital widespread protests
that America itself would provide $1oom not to invite Israeli retaliation against Leb- broke out against his government. The
in aid to ease the Palestinians' plight. anon, which is gripped by a dire economic IDF's fear is not so much of a third front, in
The tragedy at the hospital underlined slump, it ultimately answers to its Iranian the form of a popular uprising against Isra-
the slow progress of Israel's effort to en- paymasters, not ordinary Lebanese. On Oc- el, so muchas chaos that requires the pres-
courage Palestinian civilians to move to tober 16tl1 Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, ence of more Israeli troops. There is also
the southern part of the Gaza Strip to es- Iran's foreign minister, made an ominous the constant threat of violence between
cape the brunt of the looming battle. The warning: "The possibility of pre-emptive Palestinians and the almost 700,000 Israe-
IDF says that only 600,000 or so of the 1.1m action ... is expected in the coming hours," li settlers in the West Bank and the eastern
residents of northern Gaza have heeded its he told Iranian state television. The same part of J erusalem.
call. By delaying a wide-ranging deal on day lsrael's government issued an unprec- A final reason for Israel to delay its of-
h urna ni tarian aid or safe zones where ci- edented order to evacua te 28 Israeli villag- fensive was an effort to free at least sorne of
vilians can take shelter, the explosion at es within zkm of the border with Lebanon. the Israelí hostages captured on October
Ahli Arab will have set back efforts to per- On October rzth the IDF killed four people zth. The IDF believes that Hamas, Islamic
suade the holdouts, As it is, more Gazans attempting to cross a security fence. Jihad and other grou ps hold 203 of thern.
have already been killed just by Israel's Sorne ministers and defence officials Israeli spies have been trying to gather in-
bombing campaign since October 7tl1 than have suggested that it may be better for Is- telligence about where they are being held.
in any previous conflict involving the terri- rael to attack Hizbullah pre-emptively,
tory (see next story). Inevitably, a ground rather than wait for another surprise at- Discussions disrupted
assault will lead to far more deaths. tack, this time from the north. Israel's war Quier talks to secure the release of hostag-
Southern Gaza has become extremely cabinet, which includes both Binyamin es had been under way. Qatar, which hosts
overcrowded, with no organised provision Netanyahu, the prime minister, and va- Hamas's political leadership and has
of food or shelter for arrivals from the rious political rivals, including former strong tiesto the group, had been acting as
north. Hamas has told Gazans to stay pu t. generals, seems inclined to wai t while a go-between. But those diploma tic efforts
What is more, Israeli bombing continues sending more troops to the border. appeared to collapse on October rzth after
in sou thern Gaza as well, wi th reports of Israel may also be waiting for more the tragedy at the Ahli Arab hospital. Most
refugees from the north being killed in air American firepower to arrive in the region. Arab states, including those who had pre-
strikes. A common refrain among Gazans A flotilla led by an aircraft-carrier is alrea- viously appeared sornewhat sympathetic
is that nowhere in the territory is safe, and dy in the eastern Mediterranean. Another to Israel, such as the United Arab Emirates,
that they might as well stay in the relative is en rou te. These forces are in tended to de- blamed the IDF for the disaster, despite Is-
comfort of their homes. ter Iran, Hizbullah and other Iran-aligned rael's detailed disavowal of responsibility.
Another worry for lsrael's generals is militias in Iraq, syria and Yemen from en- That both rnakes it much harder for Israel
the risk of a war on two fronts. Iran, an ally tering the war, or attacking American in- to build diplomatic support for a ground
of Hamas, was caught by surprise on Octo- terests in the Gulf. The American ships' air- war and gives it less reason to delay, now
ber 7tl1, according to people familiar with defence systems may also be able to pro- that Mr Biden has left the region.
the situation. But it has since urged Hiz- vide Israel with additional warning of mis- Israeli commanders, at any rate, are get-
bullah, a big militant group in Lebanon, to sile strikes, if nota degree of protection. ting itchy feet. The IDF began mustering
enter the fray. Hizbullah has an arsenal of Another potential disruption to Israel's withín hours of the atrocities of October
sorne 150,000 rockets and missiles, includ- preparations for war is the West Bank, the 7th. Its forces have been largely in place for
almost a week.'We really should get going
this weekend," says a colonel. "You can
main tain this level of readiness for two
weeks at the most."
The invasion, when it comes, will be
hard-fought and bloody. Israel's leaders
have loudly and repeatedlypromised to de-
stroy Hamas's military capabilities for
good and end its is-year rule. That means a
campaign of a different order from previ-
ous incursions into Gaza, in 2009 and
2014, which aimed merely to dirninish Ha-
mas's military capacity and were followed
by a gradual return to the status quo.
But the Gaza Strip is a difficult place to
fight, for severa! reasons. First, it is full of
dense cities, composed of tightly packed
apartment blocks. Such places will limit
the invaders' lines of sight and hamper
their communications, with the tall build-
ings impeding radio signals. Civilians
could be anywhere, and there will be end-
less places for Harnas's fighters to hide.
There are 995 more What is more, Hamas has built a sool<m ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 Briefing Israel and Gaza 19

The war in Iraq was inglorious, too, and

far bloodier. Once again, American forces
quickly took the capital, Baghdad, in April
2003. President George W. Bush strutted on
the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln,
an aircraft-carrier, under the sign: "Mis-
sion Accornplished". In fact, the country
was about to slip into civil war. American
forces captured Saddarn Hussein, íraq's
dictator, but soon faced bloody insurgen-
cies by both Sunni and shia rnilitias. All
told, Arnerica lost sorne 4,500 service
rnernbers, not to rnention sorne 300,000
Iraqis who died, rnost of thern civilians.

History lessons
Israel's own history offers similar warn-
ings. In 1982, arnid a series of attacks by the
Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO),
the nationalist urnbrella group, gunrnen
shot and wounded Israel's arnbassador in
London. The Israeli governrnent took the
Forty years later, militias in Lebanon rema in a threat killing as a casus belli to invade Lebanon
and disrnantle the PLO, even though it was
� network of tunnels under Gaza-a territory for sorne rnilitary purpose and proportion- attributed to rnilitants frorn a rival, the Abu
only aokm long and iokm wide. The inten- ate "in relation to the concrete and direct Nidal grou p. Israeli forces besieged the PLO
tion was in part to undercut Israel's tech- rnilitary advantage anticipated". In other in west Beirut, forcing its leader, Yasser
nological advantage in seeing and striking words, Israel can legally justify the deaths Arafat, and thousands of fighters, to sail
frorn the air. Even the most sophisticated of civilians as long as they are killed in the into exile. Israel's Christian ally, Bachir Ge-
drones cannot provide rnuch inforrnation crossfire in operations that did not use dis- mayel, was elected Lebanon's presiden t.
about what is happening underground. proportionate force. Then it all fell apart. Gernayel was
Troops entering the tunnels cannot navi- Whatever international law rnight say, blown up. In sight of Israeli forces, his Pha-
gate by GPS or cornrnunicate by radio. however, as civilian casualties rnount, so langist fighters exacted revenge by killing
In its invasion of Gaza in 2014 the IDF will pressure on Israel to withdraw and ac- Palestinians in the Sabra and Chatila refu-
struggled to deal with such tunnels. It has cept a ceasefire. Its previous invasions of gee carnps. An Israeli cornrnission of in-
since invested heavily in subterranean Gaza, in 2009 and 2014, were quite brief. In quiry found Ariel Sharon, Israel's defence
warfare, setting up special units for the both cases, the IDF rernained on the rninister, indirectly responsible. Within a
task and constructing a sirnulacrurn of Ha- ground for about is days. Thatwould notbe year, under pressure frorn anti-war prot-
rnas tunnels for training. It has developed nearly enough time to achieve Israel's stat- ests, Menachern Begin, the prime rninister,
various technical rneans to hunt for thern, ed goals this time around. It took Iraqi announced his resignation.
including sorne rnodelled on the under- troops nine rnonths of house-to-house One effect of the Lebanese irnbroglio
ground surveys conducted by the oil in- cornbat to subdue Mosul. was that the PLO was replaced by Hizbul-
dustry, as well as rnethods based on old- That points to perhaps the biggest chal- lah, a more formidable, Shia mili tia, which
fashioned intelligence=looking for spots lenge for Israeli forces in Gaza: not getting succeeded in pushing Israel out of Leba-
where rnilitants' mobile-phone signals bogged down. America's invasions of Af- non in 2000. Another irnpact was on Pales-
suddenly disappear, for instance. Even so, ghanistan and Iraq after the terrorist at- tinians within the Israeli-occupied West
finding and dernolishing the tunnel net- tacks of 9/11 and Israel's war in Lebanon in Bank and Gaza Strip. Their first intifada, or
work will be the work of rnonths, if not 1982 (the last time ali those tanks were de- "shaking off", a stone-throwing uprising
years, and certainly nota few days. ployed) provide cau tionary tales. that started in 1987, set the stage for the Os-
A second concern is the presence of so America's "global war on terror" started lo accords between Israel and the PLO of
rnany Palestinian civilians. Arnerican-led triurnphantly. Just two rnonths after al- 1993. Arafat rnade a triurnphant return to
assaults on cities during the Iraq war and Qaeda's attacks on America in Septernber Gaza the following year.
the Iraqi-led, Western-backed capture of 2001, Arnerican-led forces were in control Harnas emerged as the rnain force of
Mosul frorn Islarnic State in 2016-17, were of Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. The violent rejectionisrn and did rnuch to de-
painstakingly planned and conducted Taliban governrnent was gone. Al-Qaeda stroy the Oslo accords. It torced Israel out
with the benefit of copious intelligence. was hounded. Its leader, Osarna bin Laden, of Gaza in 2005 and won the Palestinian
Large nurnbers of civilians died nonethe- was tracked to Pakistán and killed in 2011. legislative elections in 2006. The following
less-perhaps as rnany as 10,000 in the bat- But the Taliban fought a growing insurgen- year it pushed out the PA.
tle for Mosul alone. cy. Having lost more than 2,400 rnilitary For Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf
In theory, international hurnanitarian personnel, Arnerica left in 2021. The Af- States Institute, an American think-tank,
law, which governs the cond uct of arrnies ghan governrnent collapsed alrnost irnrne- the lessons are clear. Terrorist and insur-
once they are waging a war, dernands that diately and the Taliban returned to power. gent groups, he argues, resort to spectacu-
soldiers distinguish between cornbatants lar violence to provoke an irrational re-
and rnilitary objects on the one hand and sponse. "They know that the harrn that
civilians and civilian objects on the other. f) Read more they can do to the dorninant power is lirn-
Targeting those on purpose is always ille- ited," he says. "They understand that the
gal. But an attack that kills civilians-even For more coverage on Israel and Gaza visit harrn that the dorninant power can do to it-
lots of thern-can be legal if it is necessary economist.com/israel-hamas self is infinitely greater." •
20 Briefing Israel and Gaza The Economist October zist 2023

� Mapping the scale of destruction and bloodshed in Gaza

..
Detected damage, Oct 7th-12th 2023 -- ---- ----, -, Population density, 2020
--- ---··----------- .
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been levelled I
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have been damaged • ,' ��
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by the strikes
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Sources: European Cornmission, European Space Agency¡ OpenStreetMap¡ UN¡ The Economist

Graphic detail flies over Gaza at least three times every 12 nificant areas of its north may have been
days, and creates an image by bouncing damaged or destroyed. The city of Beit Ha-
Destruction microwaves off the Earth's surface and noun appears to be the worst hit. Sources
measuring the "echo" when they return. on the ground confirm that the Al-Sousi
in Gaza By comparing images taken before the and Ahmed Yassin mosques=whích our
war began with the la test image from Octo- analysis highlighted as damaged-vhave
ber izth, we identified areas with dramatic been levelled. Overall, our estimates sug-
changes in signal, a hallmark of damage. gest that n.ooo buildings in Gaza are alrea-
At least 4.3% of the enclave's buildings
We verified the method's accuracy by ap- dy damaged or destroyed.
appear to have been destroyed
plying it to data from the Ukrainian city of Gaza's population is particularly vul-
Gazans the dull boom of an air Mariupol in the spring of 2022, and com- nerable to air strikes. Around 2.2m people
F
OR MOST
strike is a familiar sound. The current paring it with human-ceded assessments. live in the sliver of land-vaokrn (25 miles)
barrage-which began after Hamas, a Pal- Our method is not perfect. Not all damage long and iokm wide-that rnakes up the
estinian militant group, murdered more can be detected from above. As a result, our strip. All border crossings are closed. In
than 1,400 Israelis on 7th October-is the numbers, if anything, may be too low. sorne refugee camps as many as 400 peo-
beginning of the fifth war since Israeli Our analysis of Gaza revealed that sig- ple live in each roo-rnetre square. Hun-
troops withdrew from the area in 2005. dreds of thousands have already been dis-
But nothing could have prepared the Total deaths, by day reported 2,866 placed. By merging our damage map with
people of Gaza for the scale of destruction First ten days fine-grained population data, our analysis
this time around. The Israeli Air Force suggests at least 92,000 will have no home
claims to have dropped nearly 6,000 lsraeli Palestinian to return to when the fighting stops. This is
bombs on the narrow strip of land in the about three times our number for roughly
first week of the war-more than the yearly the same point of the 2021 war.
2023 war
rate of American forces in their operation ----1,300 Israel says the strikes have killed hun-
against Islamic State in 2014-17. Our analy- dreds of terrorists and destroyed Hamas
sis of satellite images suggests that in this command centres. The Ministry of Health
741
short space of time at least 4.3o/o of the en- Otherwars, in Gaza reports around 3,500 Palestinian
claves' buildings have been destroyed. 2008-21 257 lives lost, more than in any other Israel-Ga-
To assess the damage caused by the ·--,:-= ' 1 1 .-. 1
za conflagration. With bombs still falling,
strikes we analysed freely available data and Israel expected to launch a ground at-
=

1 5 10 1 5 10
from Sentinel-i, a European satellite. It Day of war rack, this number is sure to rise. •
 The Economist October zist 2023 Briefing Israel and Gaza 21

Israel and Palestine reaucrats in Gaza to stop working. Hamas

hired tens of thousands of su pporters to
When the shooting stops fill the civil service instead, while the PA
continued to pay its workers to sit at home.
Keeping that bureaucracy would mean
working with around 40,000 people hired
for their ideological loyalty to Hamas; dis-
missing it would repeat the mistake of
RAMALLAH
America's "de-Baathiñcation" programme
Israel has only unpalatable options for Gaza's long-term future
in Iraq, which threw legions of angry, un-
HE PUBLIC statements Joe Biden made The first is that Mahmoud Abbas, the Pales- employed men on the streets.
T during his lightning visit to Israel on
October isth <lid not suggest many misgiv-
tinian president, is loth to do it. "I don't
think anybody can be that stupid and think
A fourth option would be to cobble to-
gether sorne sort of alternate administra-
ings about Israel's impending invasion of he cango back to Gaza on the back of an Is- tion, composed of local notables working
the Gaza Strip. In private, however, the raelí tank," says Ghassan al-Khatib, a for- closely with Israel and Egypt. Israel relied
American president's advisers hoped to mer Palestinian minister. on that sort of arrangement until the 199os,
press Israel's leaders on an urgent ques- Even if Mr Abbas were able to take pow- before the PA began to take over civil func-
tion: what should happen after the war? er that way, he may not want to. Yasser Ara- tions in the occu pied territories.
Israeli officials say they are focused on fat, the previous president of the PA and There has been talk of trying to enlist
toppling Hamas from power, in retribution longtime figurehead for Palestinian na- Muharnmad Dahlan, a former PA security
for the massacre it committed in southern tionalism, had a fondness for Gaza; l1e chief who grew u pin Gaza, to take the reins
Israel on October 7th. "Gaza will no longer lived there for a time after being allowed to after Hamas. But Mr Dahlan has spent the
be a threat for Israel," says Eli Cohen, the return to Palestine in 1994. People close to past decade in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the
foreign minister. "We will not agree that Mr Abbas say that he, in contrast, views Ga- United Arab Emirates (UAE). He has fallen
Hamas will have any power in Gaza." Even za as a hostile place. out with the PA; in 2016 a Palestinian court
after the risks of ñghtíng in such a densely Gaza would almost certainly be hostile convicted him of corru ption. There is also
populated place were illustrated by a dead- to Palestinian police sent to secure it. The bad blood between him and families in Ga-
ly blast on October rzth at Gaza's Ahli Arab PA employs around 60,000 people in its se- za: he led the figh ting against Ha mas in
hospital, which Israel blamed on an errant curity services, which have authority in 2007. "I think that's an illusion," says Mi-
Palestinian rocket, Israel's stated war aims roughly a third of the West Bank (see map chael Milstein, a reserve colonel in the Is-
have not changed. on next page). It cannot control even that raelí arrny and an analyst at the Moshe
limited area: parts of Je nin and Nablus, cit- Dayan Centre, a think-tank in Tel Aviv. "I'm
Four-way stop ies in the northern West Bank, are so res- not even sure he'd want to come back. He'd
But Israel's post-war plans remain uncer- ti ve that the PA's forces dare not patrol be worried people would want hirn dead."
tain. It has four main options, all bad ones. them lest they be attacked, Morale is low. If The case of Mr Dahlan points to a larger
First is a prolonged occu pation of Gaza, Palestinian police returned to Gaza, they problem. The Palestinians have been di-
like the one it undertook from 1967 to 2005. would be a target for the remnants of Ha- vided for almost two decades. The split is
Israelí troops would have to secure the en- mas, Islamic Jihad and other militants. Ha- Iargely their fault: though Hamas and PA
clave and, in the absence of a Palestinian mas and the PA fought a bloody civil war in leaders meet every couple of years to pay
government, might have to oversee basic Gaza after Hamas won parliamentary elec- lip service to reconciliation, neither party
services as well. tions in 2006. Hamas eventually prevailed wants to compromise. But the schism has
This might please a segment of Israel's and ejected the PA from the strip in 2007. also been exacerbated by the divide-and-
religious right, which still fumes about the Nor is security the only question. After rule policy of Binyamin Netanyahu, the Is-
withdrawal in 2005 of all Israelí soldiers Hamas carne to power, Mr Abbas told bu- raelí prime minister, who thought ita use-j+
and settlers from Gaza as the abandon-
ment of a sliver of the biblical homeland of
the J ews. But no one else wants to see Gaza
reoccupied, given the heavy financia! bur-
den and the likelihood of endless bad press
anda steady trickle of casualties. Mr Biden
warned on ocrober ijth that a lasting occu-
pation would be a "big mistake" Most Is-
raelí strategists agree.
The second option is to wage a war that
decapitates Hamas and then leave the ter-
ritory. This is arguably the worst way for-
ward. Sorne of Hamas's leaders and sup-
porters would probably emerge to recon-
sti tu te the gro u p. Even if they <lid not,
sorne other undesirable force would take
its place. The Middle East has a history of
radical groups taking advantage of ungov-
erned spaces.
The best outcome, from Israel's per-
spective, would be the return of the Pales-
tinian Authority (PA), which governs parts
of the West Bank in co-ordination with Is-
rael. But that path is littered with obstacles. Not the set-up Israel is looking for
22 Briefing Israel and Gaza The Economist October zist 2023

� ful tool to stymie the Palestinian dream of a transition towards a Palestinian state. If majority of Israelís want to obliterate Ha-
an independent state. "Netanyahu had a there's no poli ti cal horizon, then the whole mas, not reward i t.
flawed strategy of keeping Hamas ali ve and PA becomes irrelevant," Two other questions will shape Gaza's
kicking," says Ehud Barak, a former Israelí Israelís contend that the PA has under- future. One is what role Arab states will
prime minister. mined itself through rampant graft. Bil- play. In prívate conversations over the past
Both Hamas and the PA rule their state- lions of dollars in foreign aid have been si- week, severa! Arab officials floated the idea
lets as one-party authoritarian regimes. In phoned off over the past three decades to of a foreign peacekeeping force for the en-
2021 Nizar Banat, a critic of Mr Abbas, was buy plush villas in Jordan and topad bank clave-but most quickly added that their
beaten to death by Palestinian police at his accounts in Europe. Asked to name the country was not eager to participa te.
home in Hebron. Those who oppose Ha- main problems in Palestinian society, Egypt is not popular in Gaza, both be-
mas in Gaza risk torture and execution. more people cite their own government's cause it l1as joined Israel in blockading the
Most Palestinians choose to keep silent, corruption (25%) than Israel's continued territory and because of its prior history as
shunning politics and focusing on their occupation (19%). Gaza's ruler from 1948 to 1967. The UAE
day-to-day struggles. There is blame enough to share. The re- would be hesitant to play a big role. "We
The most recent poll from the Palestin- sult, though, is that Fatah is probably irre- don't act solo," says an Emirati diplomat.
ian Centre for Policy and Survey Research deemable in the eyes of most Palestinians, The same is probably true of Saudí Arabia.
(PCPSR) found that 65o/o of Gazans would a liberation movement turned ossified and Israel would probably veto any role for
vote for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Ha- decadent. In recent years even sorne Israe- Qatar, one of the countries with the most
mas, in a head-to-head presidential race lís had begun to wonder if Hamas could be- influence in Gaza. For years the emirate
against Mr Abbas (who would lose the West co mean interlocutor, following the same has helped stabilise Gaza's economy wi tl1
Bank as well). Hamas would win 44 % of path Fatah did decades earlier, from viol- Israel's blessing, distributing up to $3om a
the vote in Gaza in a parliamentary ballot, ent militants to pliable bureaucrats. month in welfare payments, salaries for
whereas Fatah, Mr Abbas's faction, would Not only had Hamas appeared focused civil servants and free fuel. But its support
take just 28%. on trying to improve Gaza's economy, for Hamas-some of the group's leaders
sorne of its leaders also seemed amenable live there-will now make it suspect. "The
Between a rock and a crock to a two-state solution. That would have whole strategy of Israel during the last de-
At first glance this would suggest end uring been a rernarkable shift for a group whose cade was to trust Qatar," says Mr Milstein.
support for Hamas. But such polis offer chárter used to call for Israel's destruction. "One of the lessons we should learn from
only a binary choice between militants and Last year Bassem Naim, a member of the this war is that we should not give Qatar
incompetents. Fully 80º/o of Palestinians group's political leadership in Gaza, told any more involvernent."
want Mr Abbas to resign. Hours after the your correspondent that it was willing to Although Arab states do not want to se-
hospital explosion there were protests in accept "a state on 1967 borders", Ghazi Ha- cure Gaza, they may be willing to help re-
cities across the West Bank, where demon- mad, another political official, said mucl1 build it. After the last big war, in 2014, do-
strators chanted: "The people demand the the same ayear earlier. nors pledged $3.5bn for reconstruction
downfall of the presiden t." He is 87 and has Such thoughts now seem naive. Mr Mil- (though by the end of 2016 they had dis-
no clear successor. None of his would-be stein was one of the few prominentisraelis bursed just 51% of that). The bill will be
replacements inspires much enthusiasm, who warned, well before the massacre, that even bigger this time (see Finance section).
In a hypothetical race between Mr Hani- Harnas's apparent pragmatism was just a The other question is what happens to
yeh and Muhammad Shtayyeh, the PA's ruse. His view, vindicated by awful events, the PA. Half of Palestinians tell pollsters it
colourless prime minister, the former is now anear-universal one in Israel. Even should be dissolved. Doing so would de-
would win by a 45-point margin in Gaza if Hamas were willing to take part in peace prive many of thern of an income (the PA is
and 21 points in the West Bank. Agaín, this talks, an angry, grieving Israelí public the largest employer in the West Bank) and
is less a testament to Mr Haniyeh's popu- would not be a willing partner: the vast probably lead to more violence. But it
larity than to Mr Shtayyeh's lack of it: a poll would also raise the costs of lsrael's occu-
in 2019, after his first 100 days in office, 25 km pation and, perhaps, force Palestine's long-
found that 53% of Palestinians did not even term future back onto Israel's political
know he was the prime minister. agenda after two decades in which it was
o
Open-ended questions yield more tell- rarely discussed. "It's the only card he has
Nablus
ing results. When the PCPSR asked Pales- • left," says a former confidant of Mr Abbas .
tinians to name their preferred successor West There is no lasting solution for Gaza
Tel Aviv •
to Mr Abbas, a plurality said they did not Bank .......
o alone. Despite the long schism, Palestin-
know, The second most popular answer, in Ramallah ::o
Mediterranean Sea I•
o ians there still see thernselves as part of a
)>
both the West Bank and Gaza, was Marwan }
z larger polity. Anyway, the strip is too small
Barghouti, a member ofFatah serving mul- Jerusalem --ar: ¡
and bereft of natural resources to thrive by
tiple life sentences in an Israelí prison for Municipal itself. Its economy depends on Israel's:
boundary
orchestrating terrorist attacks in which Is- Hebron everything from strawberry farms to furni-
raelí civilians were killed. Severa! of the Gaza
• Dead ture factories relies on exports to its
Sea
other top choices, such as Mr Dahlan and Strip wealthier neighbour, Whoever takes con-
Khaled Meshal, a former Hamas leader, do trol, Gaza will be neither stable nor prospe-
not even live in the Palestinian territories. ISRAEL rous asan isolated statelet.
Exiles, prisoners-or no one: Palestin- The only way to bring enduring quiet to
ian political life is moribund. Palestinians Gaza is through a broader settlement of the
blame this sorry situation on Israel, argu- West Bank, a reas of control, 2023 Israeli-Palestinian conflict. If the prospect
ing that the lack of meaningful peace talks of a negotiated sol u tion evapora tes com-
• Palestinian Palestinian/lsraeli Israelí
has deprived the PA of its raison d'étre. "I Jewish settlements (including planned expansion)
pletely, warns Mr Khatib, "with it, moder-
think Mr Abbas will be the last Palestinian ate leadership will vanish." Israel can de-
Israelí separation barrier - Built - Planned
president," says Mr Khatib. "The whole capitate Hamas. But it is far less clear that
Sou rce: OCHA
idea of the Palestinian Authority is that it's anything better will take its place. •
 23

Mental health cratic governor, Gavin Newsom, called the

bilis "a paradigm shift" and a message to
From tents to hospitals voters that policymakers intend to clean
up the streets. California's new laws also
exemplify two broad shifts in mental
health care in America: the building of
more beds for patients suffering from
OAKLAND
mental illness and drug addiction, and an
American states are wrestling with how to treat severe mental illness.
expansion of involuntary treatment.
California wants to lead the way
First, consider the billions that Ameri-
HEN AISLINN BIRD is not treating pa- This hazardous combination of drug use, can states are pouring into facilities to
W tients at her health clinic in down-
town Oaldand, she goes to see thern where
mental illness and the physical hardship of
sleeping rough l1as increased horneless
treat and house mentally ill people. One
bill Mr Newsom signed into law will puta
they live: in homeless encampments. deaths in big cities across the country. $6.4bn bond measure to help build more
Many of them sleep in tents under train Sorne 2,200 horneless people died in LA than 10,000 treatment beds and housing
tracks or highway overpasses. "If a big County in 2021, an increase of 7oo/o from units on the ballot for Californians to vote
truck comes by or if the ... train goes by, I 2019. The daily tragedies playing out on on in March. When asked what happens if
have to stop the interview because then I America's streets are also changing the pol- Californians do not go for it, Mr Newsom
can't hear my patients," she says. "It's hard itics of homelessness in liberal states-and told The Economist that he cannot imagine
to create a therapeutic environment out nowhere more than in California. it failing. His message to voters is "Vote no
here," Dr Bird is part of a growing group of A slate of reforms signed into law last if you believe in the status quo." Kathy Ho-
psychiatrists practising street medicine. week in California is meant to tacl<le this chul, the governor of N ew York, set aside
Her teams frequent encampments around problem. Standing at a podium that read $1bn in her 2024 budget for psychiatric
oakland, offering homeless people every- "Treatrnent not tents", California's Demo- hospital beds and longer-term housing.
thing from regular check-ups to treatment The Texas legislature allocated sorne $2bn
for mental illness and drug addiction. over the next two years to build and main-
7 Also in this section
More than a quarter of homeless Cali- tain mental-health hospitals.
fornians recently surveyed by the Univer- 24 The House speaker mess It is rare that Texas and California agree.
sity of California in San Francisco said they But three things have raised the profile of
25 Michael Flynn's flying circus
had been hospitalised for mental illness. mental health among Americans of ali
Two-thirds said they were currently strug- 26 Roe, your own way stripes: the anxiety and isolation many felt
gling with a mental-health condition, during the covid-is pandemic; the destruc-
26 A proper pint
ranging from anxiety to hallucinations. tion opioids have wrought; and the visible
One third of respondents said they regular- 27 Teaching teachers to shoot suffering of unsheltered homeless people
ly use methamphetamine, which can with mental illness. The need is also im-
28 Lexington: Why Biden abides
cause psychosis akin to schizophrenia. mense. The number of psychiatric beds per ��
24 United States The Economist October zist 2023

� person in America is low compared with policymakers stress that involuntary treat- House Republican, gave up. But Mr Jordan
much of the OECD, a club mostly of rich ment should remain a last resort. Their tell short during a full House vote on Octo-
countries. America has less than half as hope is that the expansion of beds makes it ber rzth. He lost even more support in the
many beds per personas France. more likely that people suffering from second round of voting. The top job always
Mr N ewsom describes his overhaul as mental illness get the level of care they seemed an odd fit for a conservative fire-
fulfilling a promise made by then-gover- need, and avoid languishing in jail or hos- brand like Mr Jordan. A former Republican
nor Ronald Reagan in the 196os to replace pital for want of a safe alternative. speaker once called him a "legislative ter-
overcrowded, often abusive state-run in- The neglect that California showed its rorist", and after nearly 17 years on Capital
stitutions with smaller, local facilities. Yet most vulnerable when the institutions Hill the Ohioan had yet to be the primary
after Reagan, rightly, closed the asylums were closed is a prime example of good in- sponsor of a bill that became law.
and expanded patients' rights, he failed to tentions gone wrong. Decades later, Mr Perhaps Mr Jordan will find a way. He
fund community care. When Reagan be- Newsom hopes California can provide had not dropped out by the time this issue
came president, the country followed Cali- America with a model for how to fix things. was published, though many House Re-
fornia down this road. Butblaming Reagan He refers to the restof his termas "the great pu blicans were already looking elsewhere.
ignores the nearly 50 years of inaction implementation", His focus on beds ech- Sorne Iawrnakers even began weighing a
since he left Sacramento, the state capital. oes those who spend the most time among more quixotic measure: empowering the
"The failure of successive state govern- homeless and mentally ill Californians. interim speaker.
ments to uphold the community funding When asked whatwould make herjob easi- Patrick McHenry became speaker pro
promise is one of the main reasons people er, Dr Bird laughs. Without any hesitation, tempore on October 3rd after being hand-
are suffering so badly today," says Darrell she answers: "More housing." • picked by the recently removed Kevin Mc-
Steinberg, the current mayor of Sacramen- Carthy. The ten-term congressman from
to and an advocate for reform. North Carolina embraced a limited role in
The other striking feature in California House Republicans his unprecedented position and did little
is the expansion of involuntary treatment. more than oversee the election of a new
Mr Newsom signed a law on October ioth, Hail McHenry speaker. Butwith no end to the Republican
SB 43, that loosens the criteria for people to impasse in sight and critica! legislative
be placed in a mental-health conservator- deadlines approaching, talk of expanding
ship, in which a person appointed by the Mr Mclíenry's power has grown louder.
state directs their care. Its passage follows To do so, the House would have to pass a
WASHINGTON, DC
the creation last year of CARE Court, a pro- simple resolution giving Mr McHenry
The House of Representatives still
gramme that allows health workers, police more authority, "That would basically just
needs a speaker
and family members to enroll people with empower McHenry to be able to do things
psychosis in court-mandated treatment. OHN MCCAIN, the late senator from Ari- like bring bills to the floor and conduct
Alex Barnard of New York University, who
is tracking state laws that expand forced
J zona, liked to joke that the approval rat-
ing for America's Congress had fallen so
sorne basic business of the House," says
Molly Reynolds of the Brookings Institu-
treatment, finds that reforms are clustered low that legislators could expect support tion, a think-tank. This is nota permanent
in coastal Democratic states such as Cali- only from "paid staffers and blood rela- solution and his expanded powers would
fornia, Oregon and Washington that are tives" McCain's old line seemed closer to almost certainly come with an expiry date.
reckoning with very visible displays of reality than hyperbole as the House began But members in both parties could find
mental illness among horneless people. its third week without a speaker. Yet, un- sornething to like with this short-terrn fix.
Growing anger from voters helps ex- likely as it seems, good legislation still has Mr Mct.arthy lost his job after negotiat-
plain why Democratic politicians in liberal a chance to pass despite the House Repub- ing a temporary extension of government
states are grasping for policies usually as- licans' dysfunction. funding. Mr McHenry, not long for the job,
sociated with law-and-order Republicans. Jim Jordan, a hard-right Ohio congress- could oversee the passage of a long-term
Civil liberties and disability rights groups man, became speaker-designare on Octo- funding bill=something the permanent
are figh ting the poli ti cal tide. They argue ber ijth after Steve Scalise, the number two speaker should then be grate ful for, even if
that SB 43 and CARE Court infringe on pa- he votes against the legislation. Many Re-
tients' freedoms and bodily autonomy. publicans, however, would balk at giving
Disability Rights California, a non-profit, up what they consider one of their main
worries that the laws will unfairly target points of leverage against the White House
black Californians, who are disproportion- and Democrat-controlled Sena te.
ately represented among the state's home- Strong bipartisan majorities in Con-
less population, and will traumatise peo- gress also support more aid for Israel and
ple. They have a point. The evidence for the Ukraine, but a growing anti-Ukraine bloc
efficacy of involuntary treatment is mixed. has held up supportwhile remaining assis-
"They're simply wrong," Mr Newsom tance dwindles to dangerously low levels.
says of the civil-rights groups. "Look Tl1e Wl1ite House reportedly plans to ask
what's happening on the streets. It's night Congress for sioobn to fund a mix of secu-
of the living dead in the Tenderloin in San rity priorities, including money for Israel
Francisco ... and people are dying." He sug- and Ukraine, potentially to last until the
gests that the extreme libertarianism dis- 2024 presidential election.
played on the streets is an embarrassing "It's time to end the Republican civil
abdication of state responsibility. To the war, and in order to do that all options are
governor and his allies, these new laws on the table," Hakeern J effries, leader of the
representa move towards the centre and a House Democrats, told Politico. Other
recommitment to a social contract. To his Democrats expressed an openness to ele-
opponents, they reek of state overreach. vating Mr McHenry for the purpose of
Even while trumpeting the new laws, Pro the temporary speaker avoiding a shutdown or passing bipartisan ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 Un ited States 25

� legislation. John Boehner and Newt Ging- mostly obscure speakers get about 15 min- lens. Forces of good and demonic evil are
rich, former Republican speakers, have en- utes each to stoke one menace or another, constantly struggling. (A third of evangeli-
dorsed the idea, as have sorne moderates for 15 hours straight. The tour is a stew of cals hold this worldview strongly, accord-
still in Congress. Dave J ayee, leader of a apocalyptic sermonising, QAnon and elec- ing to surveys by Paul Djupe of Denison
centrist faction, said that "by empowering tion denialism. University in Ohio.)
Patrick McHenry as speaker pro tempore The point, if there is one, is to over- The disposition dovetails with and pro-
we can take care of our ally Israel until a whelm=or as Steve Bannon, a banker- pels lots of conspiracies. That is not new:
new speaker is elected." turned-provocateur once described the in 1991 Pat Robertson, a Baptist televange-
Various procedural gimmícks could way that disinformation operates, to list, published "The New World order", a
slow the process. Mr McHenry, perhaps "flood the zone with shit" A former mar- bestseller about how a cabal of elites was
fearing a potential primary challenge, keting manager for a hotel chain who bills bent on creating a totalitarian govern-
might oppose the scheme himself. But, herself as a "geopolitical expert" talked of ment. Apocalyptic trapes figure heavily in
reckons Matt Glassman of Georgetown Iranians posing as Venezuelan asylum- QAnon, which is more popular among
University, "if a majority is hellbent on em- seekers to infiltrate and attack America white evangelicals than just about any
powering McHenry, they will be able to do ("We will be the next Israel"). Someone other religious group.
it." The past month has been one of sur- pitched precious metals as an alternative Politicians long ignored conspiracists.
prises, generally unpleasant. Maybe the to central-bank digital currencies: the idea They tended to vote at lower rates: why par-
biggest of all would be all this chaos ending being that the government can turn off ticipa te if you think the game is rigged? In
with sorne responsible governance, even if your money should you misbehave, so put surveys after the 2012 election, Joseph Us-
it proves short-lived. • it in gold or sil ver. "There are lots of threats cinski of the University of Miami found a
out there=-I could talk for three hoursl" ex- self-reported turnout gap of 23 percentage
claimed another speaker as her 15 minutes points between people with low and high
End times of blame ran out. predispositions to conspiracy.
Michael Barkun, a political scientist at During his campaign Mr Trump legiti-
Michael Flynn's Syracuse University, wrote of the princi- mised the latter group by suggesting,
ples underlying conspiracism: nothing among other nonsense, that Barack Obama
flying circos happens by accident, nothing is as it had been born abroad and that Hillary
seems, and everything is linked. Connect Clinton had taken bribes from Russia. In
the dots and a hidden, malevolent scherne surveys by Mr Uscinski after the 2016 elec-
TRUMP NATIONAL DORAL, MIAMI
emerges. Such thinking is correlated with tion, the gap closed. It is not so much that
Part of Donald Trump's base thinks he
feelings of powerlessness and anxiety. Mr Trump persuaded lots of people to turn
is fighting a spiritual war
Conspiracy theories are perversely reas- conspiratorial, reckons Adarn Enders of
N A HOTEL ballroom owned by Donald suring, then: events become ordered rath- the University of Louisville. Surveys of
I Trump, barely an hour into a two-day
conspiracist talkathon, your correspon-
er than randorn. Educated, establishment
types are the dupes. There may be evil at
sucl1 thinking are pretty stable over time.
Rather Mr Trump activated existing beliefs
dent lost the plot. It happened amid calls work, but it can be resisted. A woman on a and connected them to politics.
for the audience to quit being "weak-kneed cigarette break told your correspondent as Not that doom-mongering is exciting
wussies" and "join Team Jesus", and warn- much: "We know everything. Every lie all the time, even among the most die-hard
ings about child traffickers and poisonous known to man was revealed to us alrea- conspiracists at the Reáwaken tour. As a
vaccines. What really did it, though, was an dy...The government is a mafia." pastor read from the Book of Revelation
invitation to approach the stage to be Talk of a spiritual war suffuses such and described how to identify the coming
healed by a self-styled prophet resembling events. That makes sense: those evangeli- Antichrist, the crowd thinned and flagged.
Ozzy Osbourne. cal Christians who believe in the end- Phones carne out. Sorne played Candy
La ter one of Mr Trump's sons took to the times-when Jesus will return to Earth, Crush, others shopped online. "Are you ali
podium. Worship music played: severa! battle the Antichrist and save the faithful- awake?" carne a call from the stage. Then
hundred hands went up in prayer. Some- often see the world through a Manichean more pleadingly: "Are we doing alright?" •
one blew a shofar, a trumpet used in [ewish
rituals that is popular among sorne charis-
matic Christians. Was this a Trump rally, a
religious revival or a gabfest about how
globalists had spread covid-is to suspend
civil liberties? Was it all of those things?
The man selling tickets over the phone-at
a recommended price of $250, or pay what
you wish-had offered just two instruc-
tions. No masks allowed and please leave
guns in the car.
The event was part of the Rexwaken
America tour, a roadshow helmed by Mi-
chael Flynn and born of protests over lock-
downs and election "theft", (Mr Flynn
served as Mr Trurnp's first national securi-
ty adviser, was prosecuted for lying to the
FBI, then pardoned by his ex-boss.) This
was the zist incarnation of the event and
the second at Mr Trump's hotel in Miami;
previous stops around the country have
largely been at megachurches. Dozens of Flynn's fancies
26 United States The Economist October zist 2023

Abortion laws

Roe, your own way The empire strikes back

CHICAGO

Americans are discovering the joy of a true pint of beer

COLUMBUS, OHIO
TTHE BARS of the United Centre, a beers sold in individual cans in conve-
Ohio's ballot initiative is the latest test
of how to talk about abortion A sports arena on the near west side of
Chicago, the default drink available is
nience stores, up from less than 10º/o six
years ago. Though most beer sold in
decora ti ve gourds Modelo, a Mexican lager that in May shops is still in izoz six-packs, and in
N
ESTLED BETWEEN
and halloween ornaments on su bur- became America's best-selling beer. But a isoz measures (an American "pint") in
ban Columbus lawns, signs encourage popular alternative is a craft beer sold in bars, the true British pint l1as crowded
Ohioans to vote to "protect parents' rights". cans from a fridge behind the bar, called out other heftier-sized brews, at least
Leaflets declare that mums and dads have "Tropical Beer Hug". Adorned with a when it comes to craft beers. Besides
"too much to lose". Only the flyer's reverse picture of a cartoon bear wearing sun- convenience stores, the format is becom-
reveals the threat: nota woke curriculum glasses, the marketing is memorable. But ing ubiquitous at America's music festi-
or ideas around gender, bu t abortion. to your British correspondent, the more vals, sports events and other places
On November 7th Ohio will become the striking part is the size of the cans. Each where customers have to pick upa drink
latest state to vote on adding a right toan one contains 19.2 us customary fluid and carry i taro un d.
abortion to its state constitution. Current- ounces of beer. That is 568ml in metric Why would Americans be turning to
ly abortion is accessible up to around via- measures. But more importantly, it is 20 proper pints? T.J. Annerino of Goose
bility-but only while a six-week ban is lit- Imperial fluid ounces, known in Britain, Island, the Chicago-based craft brewery
igated in the courts. Six other states have Ireland and a few other former British that sells the Tropical Beer Hug, says that
voted on abortion since the Supreme Court territories as "one pint" the initial motivation carne from conve-
overturned Roe v Wade last year. In each, In the past five years or so, the 19.2oz nience stores. But demand has been
voters have opted to protect access, includ- can of beer has soared in popularity "phenomenal", He speculates that 19.2oz
ing in conservative states like Kansas and across America. According to data ana- sells because it is large enough that
Kentucky, More states are expected to vote lysed by Molson Coors, a big brewing drinkers do not need to return to the bar
next year, possibly including Arizona, firm, pint cans now make up 92°/o of craft (or fridge) too soon, without being so
Florida and Missouri. This has given rise to large as to get warm and stale in one's
a cottage industry of pollsters and políticos hand, Hence the success at gigs and
who travel from state to state with each sports events. Andrew McGuire of Mol-
ballot initiative. Ohio is the latest testing son Coors argues that the size is ideal for
ground, as anti-abortion campaigners try people who want to try a new beer along-
to break their losing streak. side a familiar six-pack. Many new can-
Rather than sepia-toned images of new- ning machines tend to include the size as
borns, teenagers and parents' rights are the a default, which means it is easy for
focus of the campaign. Anti-abortion ad- brewers to produce without extra cost.
vocates argue that language in the pro- Beer-ind ustry types gene rally refuse
posed amendrnent is so broad that it could to admit any direct inspiration from
invalidate Ohio's law requiring parents' British measures. "19.2oz cansare widely
permission for underage abortions. That popular within the United States, and
seems a stretch, but the anti-abortion cam- have been for a while," sniffs Melody
paign is trying to actívate fears around pa- Gregson, at American Canning, which
rental rights that have electrified school- sells both tins and the machines to fill
board meetings across the country. thern. None calls the measure a pint;
More familiar anti-abortion arguments sorne insist on calling ita "stovepipe"
get second billing. Adverts with local But perhaps they just need to drink a few.
mums and unsettling music state that the As James Joyce, a novelist, once wrote,
proposed amendment, which would re- "the sacred pint alone can unbind the
turn the regime to sornething like the sta- 19.2 customary fluid o unces tangue." Chin chin.
tus quo under Roe, would be too "extreme
for Ohio" They raise the spectre of late-
term abortions, which are rare but unpop- the amendment. "That's not actually true." have made passing the abortion amend-
ular. The campaign avoids mention of the But perhaps the biggest difference is the ment harder. That vote failed, buoying
six-week ban, which was in place for sever- strength of the Republican Party in Ohio. abortion-rights advocates.
a! weeks last year. Many state offices are controlled by Repub- The popular governor, Mike DeWine, is
The cam paign also claims to have licans who have fought the abortion campaigning against the amendment. But
learned lessons from losses in other states. amendment. Dave Yost, the attorney-gen- he has also joined a group of Republicans
Its strategists say it began preparing earlier eral, has released a legal analysis of the urging moderation on abortion. If the
and is trying to build a diverse coalition, amendment that echoed many of the cam- amendment fails, he wants to "find a place
which includes black pastors. "There's a paign tall<ing points. The Ohio Ballot where a majority of Ohioans can, in fact,
misrepresentation of the pro-life commu- Board, which has a Republican majority, agree." Still, like Donald Trump, the former
nity that it's an old white guywho is telling rewrote the summary on the ballot to re- president, who said that a six-week ban "is
a woman what to do," says Brian Williams, place the word "fetus" with "unborn child" a terrible thing", Mr DeWine has avoided
a pastor at a predominantly black church Earlier this year, the state assembly pro- saying what a compromise could look like,
in Columbus, who is campaigning against posed ts own referend um which would
í or how it could pass. •
 The Economist October zist 2023 Un ited States 27

Shooti ng school charged through the halls. With only sec-

onds to respond, the teachers slammed
Algebra and pistols doors, took cover behind whatever they
could find and fired their paintball rounds
at the intruders as they entered.
"If someone comes in your classroom,
shoot 'im," said Sheriff Smith to the train-
ees minutes before the scenario began. "If
SPANISH FORK, UTAH
someone else steps into your classroom,
Teachers are learning how to properly carry guns into their classrooms
well, shoot them too." The scenario was ov-
golden-coloured earth Smith says that officers found weapons er in a few seconds, but many of the teach-
N
ESTLED AMONG
and desert scrub, the Thistle Gun stored in desk drawers and inside purses ers were breathless for minutes after. "I'm
Range, an hour's drive south of Salt Lake where pupils could easily find them. "They shaking," said Rachel Walker, a testing ad-
City, gives off "wild-west" vibes. Add the didn't have any training, any policies, any ministrator. "You get adose of adrenalinl"
wind softly blowing through thigh-high procedure in place to govern how they use It is unlikely that a teacher in a class-
weeds, the sound of gunshots ringing that weapon, which I think is a recipe for room will face an armed intruder, but every
through the canyon and six-foot-tall depu- disaster," he says. So when he became sher- teacher carrying a concealed weapon must
ties from the Utah County sheríff's depart- iff of Utah County a few years after the be prepared every day to keep their weapon
ment wearing cowboy hats, and it is easy to hoax, he created the teachers' academy. out of sight and out of pupils' hands. For
see why your correspondent felt immersed rne 20-hour-long course over six ses- women, carrying a concealed weapon can
in a western. Only this was no rodeo. It was sions provides instruction on much more be tricky. They are usually smaller and
a live range day for teachers and other than just shooting guns. It covers emer- curvier than men, which makes concealing
school staff learning how to shoot. gency medica! techniques, self defence, a weapon at the hip harder. They also tend
Since 2019 sheríff Mike Smith of Utah tactical de-escalation, mindfulness and to wear tighter clothing, sometimes with-
County and his colleagues have taught more. Then the shooting happens. One out suitable pockets. Teachers of younger
teachers how to defend themselves against class is s pent in a simulator where the pu pils must be particularly careful, as li ttle
active shooters, That includes learning teachers practise responding to an active- children tend to give waist-level hugs.
how to safely carry and use a concealed shooter situation. The last day of the Gun manufacturers have started cater-
weapon inside schools. In the state of course involves a live range day during ing to women, says Depu ty Beth Gerber to
Utah, school staff can carry a concealed which the teachers finally get to shoot l1er trainees, now at their final station for
weapon if they have a permit, but this li- their loaded guns. the day. Her friend carries her gun in a bra
censing process is not enough, says Sheriff Those in the most recent cohort spent holster called the "flashbang" It nestles the
Smith. "You don't actually have to go shoot the live range day rotating between four weapon underneath her ample bosom, she
a gun and show that you can proficiently stations over five hours. Most of the time says. To retrieve it, she lifts up her shirt
hit a target in a classroom setting." Teach- was devoted to perfecting shooting tech- (flash), then grabs the gun (bang).
ers are also not trained how to respond to nique with live rounds on lifeless targets, With or without proper training, teach-
an active shooter or carry a weapon in a but one heart-thumping station looked ers across the country are carrying guns
school. His class aims to do that. like a scene from a Jason Statharn film. It into schools. About 30 states allow teach-
Sheriff Smith realised he had a problem took place in a multi-room training facility ers and administrative staff to carry fire-
several years ago when he and more than used to train SWAT teams in many scenari- arms on school grounds. sheriff Smith says
200 officers responded toan active-shoot- os, including those involving shooters in that teachers leave his course thinking
er situation ata school. It was a hoax, but schools. The teachers, this time armed more critically about this, especially after
he was still disturbed by what he saw. Be- with paintball guns, were stationed inside going through the practice scenarios and
cause of Utah's law on carrying concealed the rooms. Armed aggressors, played by of- accidentally putting a bullet where one
weapons in school buildings, sorne of the ficers using blank rounds while dressed in should not have gone. "I think I would like
teachers that day were armed. Sheriff dark protective gear from head to waist, to get my conceal-carry [permit], but I
don't think I would take it to school," says
Russell LeMon, a high-school history
teacher and military veteran, on his final
training day. "That scares me a little bit.
Too much liability."
Protecting schoolchildren from gun vi-
olence is difficult. America is the only
country where people are outnumbered by
civilian guns. According to EdWeel<, a news
organisation that covers education, there
have been 33 school shootings with inju-
ries or fatalities so far this year.
"It's asad reality that our teachers have
to worry about somebody coming into
their school to kill them," says Sheriff
Smith. Sorne gun advocates say the only
thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a
good guywith a gun. These teachers are liv-
ing that slogan. "These are normal, every-
day, average people. These aren't 'gun
nuts'," he says. "They want to do what they
What it has come to can to keep their kids safe." •
28 United States The Economist October zist 2023

Lexington Why Biden abides

His approach to backinq Israel is facing its most severe test

Mr Biden has followed his own playbook. In May 2021, when
Hamas barraged Israel with rockets from Gaza, he <lid not call for
restraint or a ceasefire, as past presidents probably would have.
Rather than try to box in Mr Netanyahu publicly, a step that could
backfire, he voiced support for Israeli air strikes, while in phone
calls over eleven days he questioned the prime minister abou t his
strategy, to show him he had no clear endgame, according to "The
Last Politician", a new book on the Biden presidency by Franl<lin
Foer. On the fourth call, as Mr Netanyahu continued insisting the
Israeli operation was not done, the president told him time was
up. "Hey man, we're out of runway here," Mr Biden said, according
to Mr Foer. "It's over." Mr N etanyahu agreed to a ceasefire.
Michael Oren, who as Israel's ambassador in Washington dur-
ing most of the Obama years relied on Vice-President Biden to be
his point of contact, says Mr Biden's connection with Mr Netanya-
hu is less about chemistry than history=theír own shared past,
and Israel's, Mr Biden "remernbers the six-day war, he remembers
the '73 war," Mr Oren says. "There's a saying, 'He has Israel in his
heart.' irs very personal with him."
That is less and less true generally of Democrats, who have
their own divisions over foreign policy. Sorne on the party's be-
nighted leftist fringe celebrated the massacre of Israeli civilians,
OE BIDEN has a temper. He vents it sometimes on aides when he and members of the growing anti-Israel faction of House Demo-
J is unhappy with their work, and occasionally even on voters
who have the nerve to criticise him. But when it comes to building
crats began almost immediately calling for a ceasefire. Mr Biden
recognised this would be notjust a political impossibility for Isra-
relatioriships to achieve his goals over the long term, whether el, but a strategic and moral one.
with a wayward legislator oran oppositional foreign leader, Mr Bi- Yet while Mr Bid en l1as been forthright that Israel has not justa
den has long demonstrated unusual patience and forbearance. right but "a duty" to defend itself, he has also been deft in urging
So it was in 2010 when, as Barack Obarna's vice-president, he restraint. In a speech three days after the Hamas assault, he said he
landed in Israel only to be blindsided by an announcement from and Mr N etanyahu had discussed "how dernocracies like Israel
the government of Binyarnin Netanyahu that, contrary to the and the United States are stronger and more secure when we act
wishes of the Americans, it intended to expand jewish settle- according to the rule of law." The American president had not de-
ments in East Jerusalem. This seemed a deliberate humiliation, manded anything, in other words; the two leaders had instead re-
and sorne of President Obama's aides thought Mr Biden should committed themselves to a shared value.
turn around and head home in protest. But Mr Biden l1ad begun
developing a relationship with Mr Netanyahu in the 198os, when Palestinians have politics, too
l1e arrived in Washington to serve at the Israelí embassy, and the Now comes the hard part, of course. Gazans are already suffering
vice-president had his own ideas of how to manage matters. and dying under Israeli siege and bombardment, anda ground in-
Mr Biden issued a statement criticising the move, then put to- vasion will cause far more agony, as Hamas hopes. (Gazan civil-
gether a joint working group with Mr Netanyahu to contain the ians may be prisoners of Israel, but they are also hostages of Ha-
fallout. Then he and his wife Jill went to dinner with the Netanya- mas.) And an invasion will increase the chance of a wider war. Mr
hus. According to Mr Netanyahu's own grateful account, Mr Biden Biden's judgment and ability to influence Mr Netanyahu are in for
spoke that night about deeply personal matters, about how hard it asevere test.
had been to overcome the deaths of his first wife and their daugh- And just as, once this crisis eases, Mr Netanyahu will face a
ter in a car crash. Mr Biden later gave the prime minister a photo- reckoning for Israel's failures of intelligence and operations, Mr
graph, scrawling a message on it that might serve asan epigram for Biden's Middle East policy deserves scrutiny. His decision to ease
much of the us-Israel relationship: "Bibi. I don't agree with a pressure on Iran and his attempt ata benign neglect of the Israel-
damn thing you say, bu t I love ya." Palestine conflict have ended in violence, albeit violence that has
Since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th, Americans have been a long time coming.
got the steady leadership most of them voted for in 2020, and they One can draw a line to this war in Gaza from the moment in
have been reminded of the pettiness and volatility they rejected. 2006 when Condoleezza Rice, then secretaryof state, glanced up at
Donald Trump, who has not forgiven Mr Netanyahu for congratu- the television news from her elliptical trainer and learned, to her
lating Mr Biden on winning in 2020, lashed out at the prime min- shock, that Hamas had won elections in Gaza that she had been
ister, while Republicans in the House struggled to show they could promoting as spreading democracy in the Middle East. "I thought,
govern themselves, let alone a country. As Republicans bickered 'Well, that's not right," Ms Rice later tolda biographer, Elisabeth
over who would be speaker, their foreign-policy message became Bumiller. Four successive American administrations have paid
increasingly muddled, if not contradictory-critical of Mr Biden too little attention to the miseries of Palestinian life and the reali-
for endangering America by not helpíng Israel stand u p to the ties of Palestinian poli tics. They have failed to bu ttress Palestinian
menace of Iran, yet also critica! of Mr Biden for endangering institutions and reform-minded Palestinian leaders. A true friend
America by helping Europe stand up to the menace of Russia. of Israel would not make that rnistake again. •
 29

A momentous election had a GDP per person higher than that of

Germany, Italy or France. Millions of Euro-
Can Argentina's next president pean migrants flocked to work on its fertile
lands. "uicne comme un Argentin" became a
fix the economy? colloquialism to describe obscene wealth
by a landowning aristocracy. Today the
phrase is a joke. Germany's GDP per person
is now quadruple Argentina's. Neighbour-
BUENOS AIRES
ing Chile's is almost a third higher,
Javier Milei still leads the polis. But the country needs more than dollarisation
According to the World Bank between
HERE ARE four types of countries in the and swap the local currency, the peso, for 1950 and 2016, the country experienced 14
T world: developed, undeveloped, Japan
and Argentina. Decades after the Nobel-
the dallar. His coalition, Freedom Advanc-
es, was created only in 2021. Ms Bullrich
recessions, defined as one or more consec-
utive years of negative growth (it has since
prize-winning economist Simon Kuznets also wants to balance the budget by cutting had another two). Over this period, for eve-
is said to have coined this phrase in the spending, beef up central-bank indepen- ry two years of growth, Argentina has had
197os, Argentina still stands out for its ex- dence and have a d ual-currency system in one year of recession, a record more typical
ceptional record for high annual inflation, which both the dallar and the peso would of war-torn oil states (see chart 2). Reces-
which currently stands ata massive 138o/o. be accepted. sions not only happen frequently, but are
Could that be about to change? On October The third candidate is Sergio Massa, the deep. In an average slump, Argentina's GDP
zznd Argentines will vote in a presidential country's current economy minister, who, contracts 3.5% per year. The result is that it
election. For the first time in decades, two though part of a Ieft-wing Peronist admin- is almost impossible to maintain econom-
of the three leading candidates are offering istration, is considered more centrist and ic growth. According to Martín Rapetti of
free-rnarket solutions to the country's has good relations with the IMF. If on Octo- Equilibria, a consultancy in Buenos Aires,
many problems. ber zznd no candidate obtains either 45% Argentina's real GDP per person was rough-
Those two candidates are Javier Milei, a of the vote or 40% with a ten-percentage- ly the same in 2020 as it was in 1974.
libertarian who is leading the polls, and Pa- point lead over the runner-up, a run-off Argentina has defaulted nine times on
tricia Bullrich, a centre-right former secu- will ensue in N ovember. its sovereign debt since it became inde-
rity minister who is the candidate for To- Argentina's decline has been gradual pendent in 1816, including three times
gether for Change, the main centre-right and mostly self-inflicted. A century ago it since 2000. This has led it to be shut out of
coalition (see chart 1 on next page). Mr Mi- international capital markets. Administra-
lei, who wields a chainsaw to symbolise tions have either forced the central bank to
7 Also in this section
his approach to the state, has promised to print money to finance the deficit, or taken
slash public spending by 15% of GDP (it is 32 Bernardo Arévalo battles on out debt with multilateral lenders to keep
currently around 40% of GDP), scrap most spending going. Since 1956, when it joined
32 Sanctions lifted on Venezuela
taxes, privatise state-owned companies the IMF, Argentina has been involved in 22 ��
30 The Americas The Economist October zist 2023

� bail-out programmes. It now owes the

fund $43bn.
greenbacks. They are thought to hold at
least $25obn in offshore accounts or under
-
Two steps forward, one back
The country's economic problems have the mattress, the equivalent of more than a GDP growth, ratio of negative years to positive*
mostly been caused by its politics. Since third of GDP. 1950-2023
1930 Argentina has had six military coups, Unsurprisingly, confidence in govern- O 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
which have impeded the regular function- ment is ata 20-year low. Corruption is ram-
Libya
ing of the courts and the legislature. Even pan t. In December the powerful vice-presi-
in democracy, institutions have been un- dent, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who Argentina
dermined. Populist presidents have fired was president between 2007 and 2015, was Syria
central-bank chiefs at will and expropriat- sentenced to six years injail for defrauding Iraq
ed dozens of prívate companies. Between the state of $1bn (she denies wrongdoing Chad
2007 and 2014, when a particularly left- and has appealed against the decision). In Congo
wing strand of Peronism was in power, the September, Martín Insaurralde, the chief of Sudan
government published bogus inflation sta- staff for the governor of Buenos Aires prov-
Venezuela
tistics and fined economists who divulged ince, the country's most populous state,
*Countries with full data records from 1950-2023
their own estimates, which were often was tagged in photos taken by an escort of Source: The Conference Board
more than double the official one. the two of them on a yacht, He and his ex-
The current Peronist government has wife are being investigated on suspicion
created or increased at least 27 taxes, often that they evaded taxes and laundered u p to try's fortunes around for a decade. Today,
by decree. At least seven new exchange $1oom into property, which they deny. talk of cutting public spending is not turn-
rates have been invented under this ad- More than half the population is esti- ing off voters but attracting new ones. "The
ministration. In the run-up to the election, mated to get sorne form of government political rhetoric has changed, people's ex-
Mr Massa abolished income taxes for 99°/o welfare. Many of these handouts are ineffi- pectations have changed," says Fernando
of registered workers, increased wages for cient. A programme introduced in 2020 Marull, a consultant in Buenos Aires.
public employees and handed out a bonus which aims to bring casual workers into Mr Marull also notes that certain sec-
in pesos worth $100 (converted at the offi- the formal market reaches almost 1.3m tors-such as mining, oil and gas and
cial exchange rate) for pensioners. people-yet only around 15,000, or 1.2º/o of tech=are booming. The country has one of
Populism has contaminated trade, too. recipients, have so far found formal jobs. the world's biggest reserves of lithium.
Successive Peronist adrninistrations have According to the In ter-American Develop- Rystad Energy, a consultancy, estimates
cut the country off from international ment Bank, administrative inefficiencies that oil output in Argentina will more than
commerce in order to protect workers and mean that Argentina's government loses double to im barreis per day by 2030. Even
keep domestic prices down. Trade as a per- an amount worth over 7°/o of GDP ayear be- in dollar terms the local stock market has
centage of GDP is just 33o/o, among the cause of leaks in welfare transfers, waste- risen by almost 75% over the last year.
world's lowest (it is 84 % in Mexico and ful public procurement and waste in em-
64 % in Chile). Such governments have also ployee remuneration. This is more than Get the chainsaw!
bashed the country's main export sector, any other country in Latín America. Yet positive headwinds may not be enough
agriculture, as an oligarchy, and sought to Though inefficient, these welfare pay- to save Argentina. 'Argentina's principal
hobble it by imposing export restrictions ments continue because they are essential problem is political," says Mr Rapetti. An
on farrn produce. Exports of soya, the to the way politics functions. Middlemen addiction to charisrnatic leaders who co-
country's main product, are taxed at 33°/o. known as punteros, who are in charge of opt state institutions rather than build po-
Ali of this means that most Argentines distributing social handouts, also make litical consensus has made it impossible to
prefer to do things off the books. Banks, sure their recipients vote for the right par- implement good policies and maintain
which in the past have effectively confis- ty. In September one puntero was arrested them over time. Other countries in Latin
cated savings under government orders, in Buenos Aires province while he was America have managed to stabilise their
are avoided. Domestic credit to the priva te withdrawing money with 48 different deb- economies by creating independent cen-
sector is only 11% of GDP, compared with it cards that belonged to local legislators. tral banks, targeting inflation and getting
83% in Chile. Nobody trusts the local cur- Police suspect he was acting on behalf of their fiscal accounts in order. All this led to
rency. Though the country has had five dif- poli ticians to buy votes. Argentina's feder- stable currencies. It is unlikely that a simi-
ferent currencies in as many decades, Ar- al structure also encourages clientelism, as lar combination of policies could be imple-
gentines have long preferred to save in presidents jockey for the support of the mented quickly in Argentina, because of
country's 23 powerful governors. years of distortions and handouts, Painful
-
Javier's to lose?
Such potential skulduggery has benefit-
ed Mr Milei, who gained fame by railing
economic policies are also likely to lead to
massive protests.
Argentina, voting intention in general election, 0/o against politicians as a "caste" who steal In the presidential primaries for this
50
from hard-working folk. His team is most- election, candidates who advocated broad
ly made up of political novices, though coalitions as the basis for macroeconomic
Juntos por el Cambio 40 sorne are well-regarded economists. stabilisation fared badly. Instead, voters
(Centre-right) The rise of the libertarían has raised plumped for Mr Milei, whose radical dol-
30 hopes among sorne analysts. Ramiro Blaz- larisation proposal could be a quick fix for
Unión por quez of BancTrust, an investment bank inflation, but will not solve the country's
la Patria (Peronist) 20 which focuses on Latin American debt, underlying decay. Mr Milei's party is not
����
thinks that the fact that two of the leading expected to get a majority in Congress.
•
La Libertad Avanza* 10 candidates are proposing free-market poli- That could result in legislative gridlock.
(Right-wing) Primary cies is a good sign. He points out that, last Optimists believe that if the economic cri-
elections o time Argentina went through a similar sis gets bad enough, politicians from other
2021 22 23
economic crisis in 1989, which included parties would eventually line up behind
Source: National polis *Led by Javier Milei
hyperinflation, it ushered in a liberal gov- him. GivenArgentina's track record, voters
ernment that managed to turn the coun- should not hold their breath. •
 •
01 rove

•
cancercare 1n
•
enea
.... ' ' ' .......
Supported by kY BeiGene

Cancer is a leading cause of death globally, families, but more broadly for societies
contributing to more than one in six deaths, and economies. Economist I mpact's report
and incidence is expected to rise by 50°/o 'The Future of Cancer Care: Health-System
by 2040 as popu lations age. The situation is Sustainability in Latin America", supported
even more acute in Lati n Ame rica, where the by BeiGene, explores the growing cancer
share of the population aged 65 years and burden in the region, the challenges this
older will more than double in the next three presents, and potential policy actions and
decades. That will have the knock-on effect of interventions that could help countries
increasing cancer incidence by an average of improve access, system sustainability and
64°/o across nine of the region's most populous patient outcomes.
countries-ranging from an increase of 42°/o in
The countries of Latin America are diverse,
Argentina to 98º/o in Guatemala.
as are their health-care systems, so a ene-
In Brazil alone, the projected 68°/o increase size-fits-all solution is unlikely to deliver the
would mean about irn newly diagnosed best outcomes. However, sorne common
cancer patients needing care each year- approaches, such as bridging the equity
which would significantly impact its health gap in the private and public health sectors,
system. This huge influx of additional a n d i nvesti ng in hea lth-wo rkforce capa city-
patients will force countries to reconsider bu i l di ng, can help countries mitigate
how they prioritise resources in arder to cancer incidence and increase access to
sustainably deliver high-quality cancer sustainable cancer care.
treatment, while maintaining care across
Find out more about what countries in
their wider health systems.
Latin America can do to reduce the impact
How countries adapt to this challenge has of cancer on patients, health systems and
implications notjust for patients and their society at: econ.st/LATAM
32 The Americas The Economist October zist 2023

Guatemala tober iath an appeals court quashed the The <leal, which was overseen by N orway's
conviction of José Rubén Zamora, a promi- government, was entitled a "partial agree-
Democratic display nent investigative journalist who was sen- ment", It initially appeared to be under-
tenced in June to six years on trumped-up whelming, albeit with sorne concessions.
charges of money-laundering. (But it also The document finally cleared the path for
ordered a retrial.) the opposition to hold its primary elec-
The continuous challenges are hurting tions, scheduled for October zznd. The op-
Semilla. Formed by a group of urban aca- position will be allowed to choose its can-
GUATEMALA CITY
demics, the party ran its first round on didate "according to its interna! rules." An
Bernardo Arévalo battles on
$20,000. It did not even have money to do approximate date was agreed for presiden-
ORE THAN two weeks after protests interna! polling. The party has no experi- tial elections. These will be held in the sec-
M began outside a drab government
building in the capital of Guatemala, hun-
ence of holding power. It will hold only 23
of 160 seats in Congress.
ond half of 2024.
Just getting Mr Maduro to agree to these
dreds of demonstrators are still in place. Still, Mr Arévalo should be able to make small democratic steps had taken months
Amid flags and the noise of vuvuzelas, the his mark. Alejandro Giammattei, the out- of mostly secret negotiations. The day after
crowd camped outside the public prosecu- going president, has strengthened the the <leal was signed it finally emerged just
tor's office in Guatemala City calls for the powers of the presidency. "Cuatemala's how he was cajoled. On october isth. Presi-
resignation of a list of officials, starting public administration is so bad that even dent Joe Biden's administration an-
with María Consuelo Porras, the public using a few executive powers he could nounced that, with immediate effect, it
prosecu tor. They are not alone. Since Octo- drastically improve it," reckons Daniel would lift most of the restrictions placed
ber znd hundreds of Guatemalans have Haering Keenan of the Universidad Fran- on Venezuela's energy, gold and financia!
been blocking roads across the country, cisco Marroquín in Guatemala City. And sectors. The state oil company Petróleos de
protesting against those who appear to be the battle for Mr Arévalo has sparked a de- Venezuela SA (PDVSA), which has been un-
undermining democracy in the Central sire to protect democracy more generally. der sanctions since 2019, will be able to sell
American country. As Esteban Toe Tzay, an indigenous leader oil to whoever it chooses, with the excep-
Ms Porras, who has been put under who was at the protests, put it: "This is the tion of Russia. Sorne Venezuelan bonds
sanctions by the United States for corrup- feeling of the Guatemalan people." • can be traded by American entities again.
tion (which she denies), is at the forefront The turnaround represents a signifi-
of a select group trying to stop the transfer cant financia! boost for Mr Maduro's gov-
of presidential power to Bernardo Arévalo. ernment, particularly the change of rules
Since his landslide win in elections in Au- for PDVSA. For the last four years i t has been
gust, on an anti-corruption platform, Mr bypassing sanctions by selling oil on the
Arévalo has become a syrnbol of hope in a black rnarket, for as much as a 40°/o dis-
country and region where democratic count. "I think this could almost double
backsliding has become the norm. Maduro's revenues from oil: he will be re-
Initially "the pact of the corrupt", as ceiving a much lower discount, and ex-
Guatemalans refer to a small elite drawn porting more," says Francisco Monaldi, at
from the ranks of the political, mili tary and Rice University in Houston, Texas. Mr Ma-
judicial spheres, claimed, without evi- duro was certainly jubilant when he ap-
dence, that the elections were fraudulent peared on state television. "It is a world
and forced the ballot boxes to be reopened. consensus that sanctions against Venezue-
The result stayed the same. Then they tried la be lifted ," he gushed.
to suggest that Semilla (Seed), Mr Arévalo's But the wily dictator has more to do if
party, was fraudulently formed and should he really wants to come in from the cold.
be dissolved. That case is continuing. Antony Blinken, America's secretary of
Most reckon these attempts to stop Mr state, said that the Biden administration
Arévalo from being sworn in on January has given Mr Maduro only until the end of
iath will fail. Although sorne Guatemalans November to start releasing political pris-
are fed up with the roadblocks, the peace- Venezuela oners and any "wrorigfully detained"
ful protests are putting pressure on the Americans. On October 19th five Venezue-
elite, as are many foreign governments. Blowout lans-journalists and politicians who had
Keeping Mr Arévalo from power would risk been imprisoned for years-were set free.
a widespread uprising. "The most sacred Another, more difficult, request for the
thing in a democratic country is the vote," regime to comply with involves the oppo-
says Alida Vicente, a lawyer and elected sition primary election, on October zznd.
member of an indigenous administration The ele ar favouri te to win is Maria Corina
CARACAS
in Palín, in the south, who travelled to the Machado, a conservative. She has already
President J oe Biden lifts sanctions
capital to join the protest. been banned from holding office. Mr Blin-
On October isth Guatemala's interior ICOLÁS MADURO, Venezuela's autocrat- ken made clear that, also by the end of No-
minister resigned, after a group of 50 peo-
ple wielding guns, wooden planks and
N ic president, has managed to stay in
power by undermining his country's
vember, Mr Maduro's government must
"define a specific timeline and process for
stones killed a protester while trying to democratic politics. So few held out much the expedited reinstatement of all candi-
disperse a protest. Many businesspeople hope when, on October rzth, members of dates". He warned that "failure to abide by
are su pporting Mr Arévalo, either beca use his government and the opposition jetted the terms of this arrangement will lead the
they are keeri to be close to those in power to Barbados to strike a <leal in order to set United States to reverse steps we have tak-
or for fear of American sanctions if they do out how free and fair presidential elections en". Mr Maduro has a poor track record of
otherwise. The courts are divided. While could be held in 2024. keeping his part of a bargain. Now he is
the case against Semilla continues, on Oc- Such cynicism seemed well founded. about to be tested. •
 33

. , ...

Japanese geography of Zeami Motokiyo, Noh's pre-eminent

playwright, who was exiled to the island in
Islands of the Rising Sun the early 15tl1 century. Those farther afield,
including the Nansei, the Ogasawara and
the islets around Hokkaido, are relatively
recent additions. Incorporating thern
played a "crucial role in the Japanese na-
tion-building process" of the mid-to-late
THE OGASAWARA, RISHIRI, SADO AND YONAGUNI
19tl1 century, says Ishihara Shun of Meiji
Remote outposts underpin japan's maritime power, but face mounting pressures
Gakuin University in Tokyo. Their strategic

F
ROM AFAR, the Japanese archipelago ap- Sado, off the northern coast of Honshu, or value carne to the fore during the second
pears to consist of just a few islands. Rishiri, near Hokkaido, dernographic world war, when Iwo To, a speck in the Oga-
Zoom in and more come into view, dotting change is hollowing out communities. Cli- sawara, became the site of a terrible, leg-
the map like the ink splatters of a calligra- ma te change threatens the already fragile endary battle. (Iwo Jima, its widely known
phy brush. Japan has around 14,000 is- supply chains of places like the Ogasawara, anglicised name, resulted from a Japanese
lands, sorne 400 of which are inhabited. a group of islands halfway to Guam, which military mispronunciation.)
These often-remote abades, known as ti­ rely on ferries to connect thern to the After the war, the rito u struggled to l<eep
tou, define the country's borders. Though mainland. In the Nansei, the islands that up as Japan boomed. (The Nansei and the
small, and sometimes tiny, together they stretch between Taiwan and Kyush u, resi- Ogasawara remained under American oc-
shape Japan's identity as an ocean nation dents are rnaking flight plans in case of a cupation for decades.) Many in Tokyo con-
and underpin its maritime power. war with China. sidered them an encumbrance. But percep-
The ritou are often overlooked. Fewer Remate islands closer to the mainlands tions changed as international maritime
than 1o/o of [apan's 125m peo ple live outside have been Japanese for centuries. Visitors law evolved. In 1982, the United Nations
its five main islands, Honshu, Kyushu, Shi- to Sado can find dozens of thatched-roof Convention on the Law of the Sea granted
koku, Hokkaido and Okinawa. Remate is- Noh theatres, a testament to the influence states exclusive rights over marine re-
lands make up about 2% of [apan's land sources extending 200 nautical miles
mass. Yet they account for half of the exclu- (37ol<m) beyond their territorial waters.
7 Also in this section
sive economic zone (EEZ) which helps Ja- That "changed the shape of the nation" and
pan punch above its weight at sea: it is the 34 India and free lave helped Japan become a "maritime great
world's 62nd-largest country yet has the power", says Iwashita Akihiro of Hokkaido
35 Gay rights in India
sixth-largest marine area (see map on next University. The ritou conferred it with vast
page). The combined coastlines of the ti­ 35 Race in Australasia fishing waters and undersea resources.
tou, 20% of japan's total, are longer than Marine riches draw China's attention.
36 Australia's coal habit
the whole of Brazil's. They are also store- Oil and gas reserves are one reason that it
houses of cultural and biological diversity. 36 South Korean chipmakers covets a group of uninhabited islands in
Yet these quietly consequential islands the East China Sea that Japan controls and
37 Banyan: lndia-Pakistan cricket
face mounting pressures. On islands like calls the Senkaku (China claims them and ��
34 Asia The Economist October zist 2023

� calls them the Diaoyu). Deposits of rare- local markets=some 70°/o of the ritou have Remoteness is not in and of itself a
earth minerals, perhaps equivalent to hun- fewer than 500 inhabitants. death sentence. Take the Ogasawara, the
dreds of years' worth of global demand, Many islands hope simply to arrest the most remote of all the inhabited ritou, ac-
have been discovered in hard-to-extract slide. On Sado, the population of 49,000 is cessible only by a ferry that takes 24 hours
mud on the sea floor near Minamitorishi- projected to drop to 19,000 by 2060; the lo- to travel one way. The population has been
ma, which belongs to the Ogasawara; Chi- cal government's goal is to keep the decline stable for years; if anything, housing is in
nese research ships have been spotted sur- to 30,000. Government subsidies aim to scarce su pply. The internet keeps islanders
veying the sea floor nearby. On distant Chi- encourage migration to the island. But connected to modern services; what can-
chijima, the main island of the Ogasawara, they are u p against powerful social forces not be found in the small handful of shops
locals recall with horror a night in 2014 that are pushing young peo ple away. "They can be ordered from Amazon. Tropical
when hundreds of large Chinese fishing hear from their parents and grandparents weather, stunning vistas and an open-
boats descended on the island to harvest that there's no point in staying, that you minded community attract many new-
its coral. "The fact that China is interfering should leave, go make it in Tokyo," laments comers. For many of them, living so far off
in these areas is a testament to their value," Watanabe Kazuya, a local official. the map has its own wonderful appeal. •
says Itokazu Kenichi, the mayor ofYonagu-
ni. China's threats to nearby Taiwan have
also spurredJapan to reinforce defences on
sorne remote islands in the south-west.
Yet the biggest challenge for most ritou Playing it safe during Navratri
is asevere version of one that much of Ja-
MUMBAI
pan faces: shrinking, ageing populations.
Social-media influencers are battling to educate young lndians about sex
"They cling to the memory of their golden
age," says Saito Jun, an author who has vis-
ited hundreds of islands. The population
of remote islands shrank by nearly 6oo/o be-
T HIS WEEI< marks the start of Navratri,
a Hindu festival spanning nine nights
that honours the goddess Durga. In
Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra and Rajasthan have all
banned sex education in schools=with
tween 1955 and 2010 (excluding those occu- western India, men and women cele- predictable results. According to a survey
pied by America). By contrast, japan's over- brants will re-enact the fight between published in 2021, 78% of young men had
all population began declining only in good and evil by clanking wooden sticks had unprotected sex with their last
2008. On the joo-odd inhabited ritou not and swaying in circles together to loud partner. The incidence of venere al dis-
linked to the mainland by bridge, 37% of music. Sorne go further. Navratri's em- ease among adolescents is growing.
the population was over 65 years old in phasis u pon heady mingling between the This is a chronic failing. Social-media
2020, compared with 29% nationally. If sexes l1as long been associated with free influencers such as Tanaya Narendra, an
they were a prefecture, it would have been love. The Hindu nationalist government ernbryologist with 1.1m followers on
one of the most aged in the country. These of Gujarat once attributed a rise in abor- Instagram, are at least trying to fill the
trends worry security-conscious officials. tions in the state to the festival. Condom gap. "I aman ordinary girl from a small
"It's important that people live there=it sales are reported to soar ahead of it. town in Uttar Pradesh. So people are not
serves to patrol the borders," says Tsuka- "We stock u p a few weeks beforehand intimidated by me," she explains. A study
moto Kuniyoshi of the rernote-islands de- and sell 30-40% more than usual during among teenage girls in northern India
partment at the infrastructure ministry. Navratri", says Mahendra Kumavat last year found a higher understanding of
Decades of state-backed investments of I<&s Pharmacy in the Gujarati city of sex, birth control and pregnancy among
have sought to make remote-island life Ahmedabad. The growing scale of the social-media users than non-users. If
more attractive. Yet health care remains far festivities, as India gets richer, is creating they want to play with love this Navratri,
more precarious even than in rural areas opportunities for surreptitious cou pling. they are likelier to do so safely.
on the mainland, acknowledges Kosaka Reduced family sizes have meanwhile
Katsuya, a town-hall official on Rishiri. Lo- made parents less able to rely on one of
cals there must trek to bigger islands to their offspring to police libidinous teens.
give birth; helicopters evacua te those who Sorne go so far as to hire detectives in-
need emergency surgery. Many remote is- stead. "On two occasions we do great
lands do not have high schools, and sorne business: one is Valentine's Day and
are losing elementary and middle schools. another is Navratri", says Lalit Raval, a
Complex logistics mean higher prices for former air force officer, who runs a priv-
consumers. Businesses struggle with tiny ate detective agency in Gujarat.
Sorne condom sellers are seizing the
- RUSSIA Territorial
waters
opportunity. In 2021Nyl<aa, an e-com-
merce outfit, slashed prices of condoms
0-12 and lubes as part of a "Navratri sale". A
Rishiri-' nautical
CHINA miles few years earlier Manforce, an Indian
Hdkft�ido
• Exclusive condom maker, ran hoardings featuring
N. KOREA Economic a former porn star called Sunny Leone
,
Zone
S. KOREA 12-200 with the slogan, "This Navratri, play, but
Tsushirna-« nautical with lovc'' The signs were castigated by
Ea.st Ky({Jhu Shikoku miles
Chine
Hindu activist groups and taken down.
I

Senkaku/ Seo ·�· JAPAN India's rulers are generally averse to

Diaoyu Is. �q; Ogasawara Is.
,: -, �1> (0k. Chichijimf talking about sex. Condom advertise-
. 1nawa r" Minami- ments deemed explicitby the govern-
TAIWAN. "--Yonaguni lwo To torishima
ment were subsequently banished from
750km
daytime television across the country. Let the festivities begin
 The Economist October zist 2023 Asia 35

Gay rights in India These naysayers (sorne of them indige-

nous) objected to special rules for any
Don't rely on the group. The opposition campaigns also saw
"an awful lot of race-baiting", notes Mr
courts O'Sullivan. Maori leaders complained in
September of "dog whistling and outright
DELHI
public displays of racism from political
candidates", Australians displayed "con-
The Supreme Court refuses to legalise
tempt for us", said an Aboriginal academic,
same-sex marnage
•
Marcia Langton, after the referendum. De-
HE MOOD in India's gay community was cades-long reconciliation efforts are in ru-
T hopeful on October rzth as the Supreme
Court in Delhi began to deliver its verdict
ins, she and other activists say.
Yet many Australians see the verdict
on a raft of petitions asking it to allow differently. It "doesn't indicate that Austra-
same-sex couples to marry. Yet it soon be- lians are unsyrnpathetic" to Aboriginal
came clear that the five judges would not people, argues Greg Melleuish of the Uni-
recognise gay unions. Instead they sided versity of Wollongong, bu t that "they did
with the government's view that changing not think this was the way to solve their
the institution of marriage was a job for problems." Aussies are always reluctant to
Parliament rather than the court. change their constitution; only eight of 45
The verdict is a bitter setback for gay referendums on doing so have succeeded.
rights. It is a victory for India's Hindu- And no-campaigners could cite particular
nationalist government, which considers reasons for caution in this case. Important
same-sex marriage an "urban elitist" idea lndigenous relations details of the Voice were unclear, they not-
at odds with Indian culture. It also casts a ed, including the issue of how its members
shadow o ver the Su preme Court's record of No special would be elected and held accountable.
advancing personal rights and social pro- Had the government of Anthony Albanese
gress despite conservative opposition. measures been more willing to negotiate on such is-
The petitioners argued that marriage sues, the centre-right parties might have
was a fundamental right guaranteed by In- been persuaded to back i t.
dia's constitution, which should therefore The debate is in a sense starker in N ew
SYDNEY
be available to all. To make it so, they asked Zealand, because it has made far more pro-
Has Australasia lurched right on race?
the court to tinker with the Special Mar- gress on relations with indigenous people.
riage Act, which governs unions between in Australasia have It had been almost two decades since race
I
NDIGENOUS PEOPLE
people from different faiths or countries hada tough month. In a referendum on was a big electoral issue there. In contrast
(Indian personal laws being Iargely reli- October iath Australian voters rejected to Australia, New Zealand's 19tl1-century
gion-based, with different rules for people their Labor governrnent's proposal to es- colonists signed a treaty with Maorí lead-
of different faiths). If the act referred to tablish an indigenous advisory body, or ers, recognising Maorí rights. Though they
"spouses" rather than husband and wife, "Voice to Parliarnent", On the same day were flouted, this provided a legal basis,
they said, it would cover same-sex cou ples. New Zealanders elected the most conser- way back in 1970, for N ew Zealand to inves-
There was reason to think the court vative governing coalition since the adop- tiga te and provide redress. It has reached
would be sympathetic. D. Y. Chandrachud, tion of proportional representation in settlements with almost 90 Maorí tribes,
the chief justice, is an outspoken advocate 1993. The new prime minister, Chris Luxon, or iwi, offering apologies and compensa-
of liberal values. Many of the court's recent pledges to scrap policies designed to boost tion of NZ$2.6bn (si.ébn). The process has
decisions have challenged prevailing con- Maori influence in politics. Have the two had bipartisan support for decades-yet
servative attitudes to sex and relationships countries moved right on race? now faces scru tiny. ACT N ew Zealand 's
in India and expanded rights against fierce Australians certainly moved against the leader, David Seymour, wants a referen-
government opposition. In 2014 the court "Voice'. which was meant to give Aborigi- dum on the extent of its powers. "No one
recognised a third gender; in 2018 it decri- nal people more say in policymaking, Polis should be treated differently based on who
minalised gay sex. A ruling in 2017 over- last year suggested two-thirds would ap- their ancestors were," he says.
turned the law that made adultery a crimi- prove the necessary constitutional amend- The final make-up of New Zealand's co-
nal offence, emphasising the sexual auton- ments. Yet over 6oo/o voted "no", rejecting alition will not emerge until N ovember.
omy of women within a marriage. the proposal in every state. Similarly, in But Mr Luxon is already expected to axe a
Mr Chandrachud rejected the govern- dismissing their Labour government, N ew new Maori Health Authority, intended to
rnent's censorious depiction of same-sex Zealanders rejected its schemes to pro- give tribes more power over health policy
marriage and recommended sorne recog- mote the Maorí language and hazy plans to and close a seven-year life-expectancy gap.
nition for same-sex unions in hís minority "co-govern" with tribes. The country's He will also scrap un popular plans to share
opinion. Even so, he and the other judges right-wing minor parties, ACT New Zealand management of water infrastructure
agreed with the government that it was u p and New Zealand First, called these "divi- with iwi. Whether he might end sorne of
to the legislature to make appropriate sive race-based policies" Both increased his predecessor's more cosmetic mea-
changes to the laws that regulate marriage. their vote. Results are still coming in, but sures, such as pushing civil servants to
That was a cop-out. There will be no law Mr Luxon's centre-right National Party speak Maorí, is unclear-but many Labour
to recognise same-sex marriage under the may need both minnows for a majority. supporters would not mind if he did. "La-
ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. Even if the Critics on both sides of the Tasman had bour brought the race issue to the forefront
opposition wins the election in 2024, the same complaint, that "indigenous poli- because they moved ata pace that is not in
which is unlikely, it will not be a priority. cies risk dividing the nation along racial line with the pu blic," says Sir J ohn Key, a
The court's decision precludes most future lines", notes Dominic O'Sullivan of Charles former conservative prime minister. Much
attempts at legal challenge. • Sturt University in New South Wales. the same happened in Australia. •
36 Asia The Economist October zist 2023

Australian energy er such as hydro. Meanwhile, investment South Korea's chip industry
in green energy is flagging.
Lucky but sooty That is partly d ue to years of stop-start Chipping away
climate policy, which tied up parliament
and toppled three Australian prime minis-
ters. Between 2013 and 2022, conservative
governments tore up a carbon price
SYDNEY SEOUL
scheme created by Labor and resisted
Australia's energy transition Sorne good news for South Korea's
emissions cuts. "The problems we face
is in trouble besieged chípmakers
now are a legacy of that dysfunction," ar-

H UGE OPEN-CUT coal mines carve up the

HunterValley in New South Wales. For
decades the fuel extracted from thern has
gues Kane Thornton of the Clean Energy
Council, a renewables association. Austra-
lia still lacks an overarching policy to sup-
I
T HAS BEEN an anxious year for Samsung
Electronics and SI< Hynix, South Korea's
leading chiprnakers. Last October America
been hauled by train to nearby power sta- port its renewable targets, relying instead restricted exports of advanced chipmaking
tions, keeping lights on across south-east- on a tangle of state and federal incentives. equipment to China in an attempt to crip-
ern Australia. But their turbines are wind- Power lines are another problem. The ple its ability to procure or produce chips
ing down. One ageing coal plant shu t in national grid may need io.oookm of new for weapons systems. The South Korean
April. Three others in New Soutl1 Wales are cables to link up solar and wind farms. The firms, which rely on China as both a manu-
due to close within a decade. The state is federal government has allocated A$2obn facturing base and market, received ayear-
jettisoning coal so fast it is attempting an ($13bn) in low-cost debt to draw invest- long exemption, but fretted about what
"industrial revolution in 15 years", said its ment. But Australia's size makes the pro- might happen after it expires.
energy minister, Penny Sharpe. ject hard and NIMBY-ist farmers are fight- On October gth their minds were put
Australia, the world's second biggest ing it. Sorne protested in tractors at Victo- somewhat at ease. South Korea's govern-
coal exporter, is finally trying to clean up ria's parliament in August, waving signs ment announced that, thanks to "close co-
its power sector, its biggest source of saying "don't fight the hand that feeds operation" with America, the waivers
greenhouse-gas emissions. It still relies on you '' Landowners are a "11 uman toll" in a would become indefinite. Yet the unpre-
coal for 57o/o of electricity generation and "reckless race to renewables", said David dictability of the Sino-American tech war
emits more from burning it, per person, Littleproud of the rural National Party. (see Business section) and China's at-
than any other G20 country. But its states The hold-ups leave state governments tempts to bolster domestic rnanufacturers
and centre-left federal government little choice but to prop up coal plants. "I mean South Korea's most important indus-
have set targets to slash emissions to net don't think anyone appreciated how diffi- try may still have to look beyond China.
zero by 2050 or earlier. The Labor prime cult this would be," says Tony Wood of the Chips made up sorne 19% of South Ko-
minister, Anthony Albanese, aims to get Grattan Institute, a think-tank, He argues rea's total exports in 2022, more than any
82o/o of electricity from renewables by for a policy to boost renewables invest- other product. Memory chips, which store
2030. That is ambitious-and the transi- ments, for example by putting a price on information, make up almost 60º/o of that
tion is already running into problems. carbon emitted from coal plants, or mak- total, and South Korean companies control
The most pressing is that Australia has ing retailers buy more clean power. "We about the same percentage of the global
deployed enough cheap renewables to un- need levels of co-ordination between the market. Factories in China are key to this
dercut its ageing coal plants, but not to re- states, industry and government that we dominance. Samsung manufactures 40%
place thern. Clean power generation, most- haven't seen since wartime", he says. In- of its NAND chips in the country, while SI<
ly from wind and solar, has more than dou- deed it is hard to match Australia's ambi- makes 20% of its NAND chips and 40% of
bled in a decade, to 37% of the total. One in tions on the energy transition with its pro- its DRAM chips there. China is a big market
three Aussie households has installed PV gress. It will not become a renewables su- for both, accounting for 16% and 44 % of
panels on its roof-more, per person, than perpower if it cannot l<eep the lights on. • their respective sales in 2021. So the ex-
any other nation. By comparison, Austra- emption is hugely valuable; it allows the
lia's coal plants are old, expensive to main- firms to l<eep sending spare parts to their
tain and power firms are hastening their factories in China.
closure. Over half the 15 stations on the Chey Tae-won, the head of SI< Group,
eastern seaboard are dueto shut by 2035. has said it is "not possible to give up the
That could leave a bíg generation gap. Chinese market" Yet even with the exemp-
State governments which share responsi- tion it may be harder to make chips there.
bility for energy with the commonwealth, The details of the extended regime are not
are stepping in to prop up ailing coal plants public, but if they constrain the use of spe-
to avert blackouts. On September 5tl1 the cific types of equipment it might be diffi-
Labor government of New South Wales cult for south Korean companies to up-
said it would negotiate to keep its biggest grade their factories beyond a certain
coal power station, Eraring, open beyond point. Japanese and Dutch export restric-
2025, which is when its owner, Origin En- tions on semiconductor technology used
ergy, wants to close it. Victoria, another La- by Samsung and SI< Hynix remain in place.
bor-held state, is paying two power compa- And if companies want to receive tax in-
nies not to close their stations early. centives offered by America's CHIPS Act, a
Australia's bounteous renewables re- law designed to encourage semiconductor
sources should help it adjust. It is as rich in manufacturers to set up shop in America,
sun and wind as fossil fuels. Yet the task is they may be constrained by limits it puts
daunting. The federal government esti- on the expansion of prod uction in China.
mates that to meet its targets, Australia Chinese demand for South Korean
must install around 44GW of renewables, chips is also uncertain. China's sluggish
plus batteries and reliable sources of pow- Kicking coal into the long grass economic recovery from the pandemic, ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 Asia 37

� and the stockpiles of chips that semicon- helpful market conditions, China's indus- South Korea. If America makes another
ductor firms have built upas a result, mean trial policy and its advancing chip industry such move to hamstring China's semicon-
South Korean exports of semiconductors mean export levels are unlikely to recover. ductor development, Samsung and SI<
to China are down this year. And China has The unpredictability of the Sino-Ameri- could again face being collateral damage.
been pumping money into its own semi- can tech war crea tes further risk, South Ko- For these reasons, both firms will prob-
conductor industry. As a result YMTC, Chi- rean officials like to say the row highligh ts ably try to reduce their dependence on Chi-
na's memory-making champion, has sur- the relative closeness of America and na as a manufacturing location. Both are
vived being cut off from global chiprnaking South Korea. It also reveals America's ten- already looking to open more facilities in
tool supply chains by American export dency to design industrial policy without America and South Korea, Manufacturing
controls. It is dueto complete a new facto- consulting allies. Its roll-out last August of costs are higher there than in China, de-
ry this year, relying on Chinese machine the Inflation Reduction Act, which incen- spi te the inducements both countries are
tools instead of foreign ones. Almost 56°/o tivises EV and battery manufacturers to re- offering chipmakers. Tl1at is the new reali-
of South Korean semiconductor firms sur- route supply chains away from China and ty chiprnakers, and ultimately their cus-
veyed bythe Bank of Korea inJune said un- towards America, was a particular shock to tomers, will increasingly face. •

Cricl<et and geopolitics

In cricket and otherwise, India is leaving its rivalry with Pakistan behind
N THE BUILD-UP to India's World Cup struggling. Three decades of jihadist vio- explain why polis show Indian public
I clash wi th Pakistán in Ahmedabad on
October 14tl1, Indian news anchors spoke
lence have made foreign sports teams
afraid to visit Pakistán, giving it near-
sentiment towards Pakistán growing
more hostile, even as the country fades
of "the greatest rivalry". For once they pariah status. By banning Pakistanis from from view. India's ruling Bharatiya [anata
were not exaggerating. Cricket con tests its lucrative domestic tournaments, India Party, which has risen by peddling fear of
between the South Asian giants have has compounded the problem. The team Muslims, has encouraged this. Its sup-
been their main interaction off the bat- trounced in Ahmedabad had no star ap- porters are the most hostile of all.
tlefield for three-quarters of a century. proaching the stature of Mr Khan (a great All these changes were evident at the
Into thern each has poured subcontinen- cricket captain, though an awful prime ma tch in Ahmeda bad-the sixth India-
tal volumes of love and hate, nationalist minister, who is now in prison). Pakistán clash your columnist has wit-
chest-beating, aching for peace, addic- Pakistan's relative decline has changed nessed on the subcontinent and by far
tion to the fray-and the wholehearted the bilateral relationship. Contemptuous the most depressing. The first encoun-
commitment of two great and fascinat- of its neighbour, and now globally mind- ters were d uring an uplifting Indian tour
ingly contrasting cricket cultures. Even ed, India has downgraded it. The days of of Pakistán in 2004, part of a promising
for cricket ignoramuses, India-Pakistán expanded transport links and people-to- peace process. India's cricketers and
bouts are an essential window onto people exchanges, generally for cricket thousands of Indian fans were ernbraced
South Asian politics and culture. What, games, are over. Indian diplomats spend by Pakistaní crowds as long-lost cousins.
then, to make of the Ahmedabad match, more time on Bangladesh than Pakistan-> By contrast, there were no Pakistaní fans
which was attended by Banyan and end- never mind China and America, the great in Ahmedabad, because India had re-
ed in an easy Indian victory? powers India increasingly counts itself fused to give them visas. And the Indian
Mostly that the rivalry has become among. "No one is thinking about Paki- fans Banyan spoke with expressed only
extremely lopsided, in cricket as other- stan," says an official in Delhi. Save in one disdain for their neighbours. Asked what
wise. India's win was its eighth on the regard: India's fear of Pakistaní terrorism. they knew of Pakistanis, three students
trot over Pakistán in World Cups. And it That most divisive facet of the relation- from Mumbai said only "terrorism",
was significantly crushing. The con test ship has become more dominant as "Everyone hates thern," a middle-aged
was held in the recently opened Na- others, including economic ties and cul- man, listening in from the row in front,
rendra Modi Cricket Sta di um, the cricket tural affinity, have fallen away. This helps volunteered. Meanwhile, the crowd
world's biggest, and attended by over screamed abuse at the visiting players.
100,000 raucously partisan Indian fans. After one, Mohammad Rizwan, was
It was an illustration of the demographic dismissed, jubilant Indians chanted a
and economic heft powering India's rise Hindu victory cry, "Jai Shri Ram", at him.
in cricket and beyond. Pakistan's players, India-Pakistán cricket has been
only a couple of whom had visited India charged in the past. But never has the
before, visiblywilted in the arena. hostility seemed so unidirectional and
This denotes a big change. In the detached from geopolitical reality. The
decades after British India's bloody parti- security threat to India from Pakistán.
tion, Pakistán outperformed India off though real, is diminished. The potential
and on the field. Its G D P per head was benefits of co-operation between the
5oo/o more than India's in 1970. Its crick- world's most populous country and,
eters, led by dashing fast-bowlers such as soon enough, its third-most populous
Imran Khan, beat India's much more are growing as environmental and pop-
often than they lost to them. But Indians ulation pressures bite. Yet the prospects
are now much richer than Pakistanis, of realising them, in cricket and other-
and their crickerers among the world's wise, have never looked more remote.
wealthiest and best, while Pakistan's are Pakistán is unable and India unwilling.
Chinese feminism was from the internet that China's #MeToo
movement emerged in 2018. Women ac-
Standingup cused prominent professors, businessmen
and television personalities of sexual as-
sault, and in sorne cases launched law-
suits. But most of these failed, and accus-
ers were sometimes sued for defamation.
One of the most high-profile #MeToo
NEW YORK
cases was brought by a woman named
As China cracks down on feminists, its women build a movement abroad
Zhou Xiaoxuan who had accused Zhu Jun,
wo CHINESE women sit on the stage of about sexual harassment or immigrant a television presenter, of forcibly kissing
T a basement comedy club in Manhattan.
They wear matching blazers and speak
hardships: and even accounts of detention
and abuse by Chinese police. Most of their
her when she was an intern. Mr Zhu denies
the accusation; Chinese courts dismissed
highly formal Mandarin, just like present- stories are funny. Many are bittersweet. the case in 2021. Ms Zhou and her su ppor-
ers on Chinese state television. But their These are not good times for Chinese ters were censored online, while national-
"news cornmentary" is acid. Chinese who consider thernselves feminists. In the ists were permitted to spread videos call-
you ths who have recently been making early 201os wornen's rights activists were ing #MeToo a plot to destabilise China.
nuisance phone calls to Japan-in protest able to mount frequent public protests in That same year Huang Xueqin, one of the
at the release of waste water from the China. They occupied men's toilets and first Chinese journalists to report on #Me-
wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant-have marched through the streets in red-stained Too cases, was arrested and charged wi th
shown "cornmendable spirit" insists one wedding dresses to protest gender inequal- "inciting subversion of state power",
of the newsreaders, to a guffawing crowd. ity and domestic violence. Activity of this As it cracks down on feminists the
Despite having "no jobs or incomes" these sort ended abruptly in 2015. That year five Communist Party has also ramped up pro-
nationalistic youngsters have "spent their prominent feminists were detained just motion of traditional gender roles. Xi Jinp-
own money on long-distance calls" before International Wornen's Day, for ing, China's leader, has called for a reviva!
The pair are performers at a Chinese planning a campaign against sexual ha- of Confucian ideas that encourage women
feminist stand-up show called "Nvziz- rassment on public transport. to be good wives and mothers, and to teach
huyi" (a play on words that can be read ei- In the aftermath of those arrests, Chi- their families to love the country. Since he
ther as "Wornen's Ideas" or "Good Ideas"). It nese feminism largely moved online. It carne to power, China has restricted access
is part of a new, irreverent form of diaspora to divorce by implementing a jo-day man-
activism led by young Chinese women. datory "cooling-off period", banned ef-
Each month "Nvzizhuyi" invites Chinese ­­¿ Also in this section feminate men from appearing on televi-
citizens, mostly women, onto the stage in sion, and encouraged regional govern-
39 Trainingforeign engineers
NewYork to say things that they could nev- ments to experiment with schemes that
er u tter in public back home. Their rou- 40 Hong Kong's sprawling mansions might prompt people to procrea te.
tines incorporate stories about coming out All this has silenced many feminist ac-
41 Chaguan:TheghostofZheng He
to their conservative parents; complaints tivists or forced them to flee overseas. Sev- ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 China 39

� eral of the people who are involved in the ment and discrimination at work, A care- there is no organiser. There are just indi-
New York comedy nights have seen the fully managed consultation on the amend- vid uals who disagree with you." Chines e
sharp end of the party's paranoia. One of ment drew more than 700,000 comments women who object to Mr Xi's big push for
the event's organisers, Liang Xiaowen, left online, making it one of the most widely- family valu es have been showing their dis-
China in 2016 bu t remained active in femi- discussed legal changes in recent years. pleasure by simply opting out. Many are
nist groups until 2021, when her WeChat Reproductive rights have also grabbed the delaying or rejecting marriage and child-
and Weibo accounts were shut down. A public's attention. A woman who sued a birth. China had 6.8m marriages in 2022,
state-run tabloid accused Ms Liang of re- hospital for the right to freeze her eggs-il- roughly half the number in 2013. China's
ceiving payments from abroad to help legal for unmarried women in China=re- population shrank last year for the first
America foment unrest in China. (China's cently sparked a debate aboutwidening ac- time in six decades.
propagandists have been doubling down cess to in vitro fertilisation. The people who run "Nvzizhuyi" have
on their claim tha t feminism is a tool of Women in China will continue to de- no delusions that they can transform Chi-
"hostile foreign forces"; the Communist mand better treatment, says Ms Li, even if nese politics from afar. "If you fantasise
Youth League has called radical feminism a they cannot band together in action. The about sorne kind of overnight, earth-shak-
"poisonous online turnour" that provokes feminist movement will just become ing change, it's not really possible," says Ms
"gender antagonisrn") increasingly "decentralised and individ- Liang. Their goal, instead, is to "quietly
Li Maizi, one of the "Feminist Five" de- ualised", she thinks. "The government keep sorne seeds alive" within the space
tained in the crackdown in 2015, decided to feels very helpless about this: they think they have created abroad, she says. One day
leave China last year, not long after police there must be an organiser. But in this era, they may bring those seeds back home. •
carne into her apartment and arrested her
flatmate for putting up posters protesting
against draconian covid lockdowns. Ms Li Global influence
had been under heavy surveillance and had
also lost her social media accounts; she felt Training days
voiceless and powerless. "This was my bot-
tom line: ifl cannot do anyuseful activities
in mainland China, írs time to leave."
For the feminists who have found their
way to New York, comed y is one way to re-
build their movement. The stage at the
China is educating engineers around the world
"Nvzizhuyi" open-mic night in early Octo-
ber was decorated with slogans, including
one calling Mr Xi a "dictator" and "#notmy-
president", The event serves two purposes,
e HINESE OFFICIALS often talk of the Belt
and Road Initiative, a global infrastruc-
ture building spree, in hyperbolic terms.
2016 China has set up sorne 27 vocational
colleges in two dozen countries, mostly
poorer ones. These "Luban Workshops"
says Ms Liang. She argues that years of On october rzth and 18th Xi Jinping, China's (named after a fabled carpenter from the
choosing to censor oneself online and in leader, hosted a big summit in Beijing to fifth century BC) have trained thousands of
public-as many Cl1inese are forced to- celebra te the tenth anniversary of what the students in fields including artificial intel-
eventually leads to self-censored thinking. government Iikes to call the "project of the ligence, electric vehicles, railway opera-
Participating in stand-up is an antidote, of century" (see Chaguan). Lately this hype tions and robotics. One of the newest
sorts. And it is important to hold the events has rnasked an awkward reality. Since 2020 workshops opened on September ath at
in Chinese, says Ms Liang, because it is the China has scaled back the scheme as gov- Meru University of Science and Technolo-
language they were censored in. It is very ernments have found it harder to repay gy in Kenya.
easy to be funny when talking about poli- Chinese infrastructure loans. The purpose is not charity. Luban work-
tics, she adds, because China's version of it Yet in recent years one part of the pro- shops promote technology and standards
has become so absurd. ject l1as stood out as a quiet success. Since that China wants to export to developing
The show also aims to encourage more countries. Gear for the new workshop in
people to get involved in feminist activ- Kenya will come from Huawei, a Chinese
ism. Momo, in her twenties, says she telecoms giant America would like to see
sought out independent reporting about excluded from its allies' mobile networks,
the crackdowns on Xinjiang and Hong for fear its kit could assist Chinese spying.
Kong when she was still living in China, Huawei (which denies America's allega-
and also followed many online feminist tions) helped build Kenya's mobile net-
groups before theywere censored. But only work and is now working with its biggest
after coming to America as a graduate stu- telecoms provider to roll out SG services.
dent in 2021 did she finally meet like- The workshops also help assuage wor-
minded Chinese women in person. Momo ries about the Belt and Road. Participating
was shocked when she attended her first governments sometimes complain that
open mic last year and heard someone on the companies which win its infrastruc-
the stage say, "I love to have sex." She felt a ture projects rely too much on labour and
twinge of concern when the speakers start- supplies from China. Severa! Luban work-
ed joking about politics, but also a thrill. shops now provide training directly relat-
Within a few months she was on stage ed to Belt and Road projects. One in Djibou-
making her own jokes. ti has trained employees of a new rail line
Wornen's rights in China have made to Ethiopia. That $4bn railway was built
sorne progress despite the shrinking space and financed by China bu t struggled to
for organising. In 2022 the government make a profit after opening in 2018.
amended a wornen's protection law to add The Luban programme has echoes of
stronger language against sexual harass- lt all fits together China's earlier drive to expand its influ- ��
40 China The Economist October zist 2023

� ence by opening more than 500 "Confuci us Property tensions go up without the proper permits.
Institutes" to teach Mandarin in universi- Liber Research Community, an NGO, iden-
ties around the world. Yet so far it has There goes the tifies sorne 170 homes in eight rich neigh-
avoided the controversies that have bourhoods that it believes have spread into
dogged those institu tes, many of which neighbourhood more space than they are entitled to. In
closed after being accused of promoting sorne cases, it says, the overspill covers a
propaganda and stifling dissent. This is in larger area than the official plot.
HONG KONG
part because the Luban workshops focus The landslip in Redhill has bolstered
A landslip in Hong Kong fuels
on technical skills and in part because Chi- old complaints about lax and partial polic-
resentment of the rich
na has spent more time consulting host ing of rules. In theory rigging u p unautho-
governments before setting them up. "Un- HE MILLIONAIRES of Redhill Peninsula, rised structures or encroaching on public
like Confucius Institutes, Luban work-
shops are actually different in each coun-
T a posh coastal community in Hong
Kong, are a little poorer than they were.
spaces can land homeowners injail. But on
sorne occasions authorities permit thern to
try, beca use of the different skills that are Last month a supertyphoon named Saola start paying the government rent for the
demanded by host countries," says Niva brought the city rainfalls heavier than any additional land, reckons Liber. When prop-
Yau of the Atlantic Council, an American this century. At Redhill, a big chunk of sod- erty owners are forced to reverse alter-
think-tank. She sees thern as evidence that den earth slipped into the sea. Though the ations or retreat from government-owned
China is responding to criticism of Belt landslip mostly spared surrounding hous- land, appeals can hold things up for years.
and Road without abandoning core goals, es, it exposed basements that had been d ug Hong Kong's government says it han-
such as exporting its technology, without permission and that may have dles things as well as possible, given its re-
The workshops compete with training contributed to the collapse. Prompted by sources. Last year it sent out more than
that America, Japan and other rich coun- journalists, the government began an in- 16,000 orders to rectify "illegal structures"
tries offer countries in the global south. vestigation, which is still going on. By Oc- and brought 3,600-plus prosecutions. Crit-
Germany, for example, has given more tober 6th it had found a dozen houses in ics say it is meek when taking on the rich.
than 100 countries guidance on how to co- the area that broke rules in sorne way. Activists say the government enforces the
PY its famed system of vocational educa- Hong Kong's systems of planning often laws selectively and sometimes uses thern
tion. The Luban workshops are unusual, look dysfunctional. One guess is that as to hassle people it links with the pro-de-
though, in providing equipment as well as many as one in four properties in the terri- mocracy movement. Mount Zero, an inde-
teaching, and in having their own brand. tory have been altered or extended without pendent bookshop, was recently told by
When the Luban programme began it the right permissions. Canopies on flat government inspectors that its front step
was led by the local government in Tianjin, roofs create room for recreation. Externa! was illegally occupying public land.
a big city near Beijing that was known for balconies are walled in. And landlords Things may be coming to a head. Chi-
technical training (local authorities have have been chopping their buildings into na's leaders worry about Hong Kong's
been encouraged to support and profit ever-smaller, "subdivided" apartments. cramped housing. They think property
from Belt and Road). The first workshop Ten years ago a government report said prices helped stir up big protests in 2019.
(pictured on previous page) opened in that widespread disregard for planning Local media, though much cowed since the
Thailand in 2016; it used equipment sent rules and building regulations could introduction in 2020 of a noxious nation-
by a Tianjin chernical company. Por a time "cause injuries and fatalities" al-security law, increasingly report on vio-
Luban workshops cropped up in rich coun- The liberties taken by Hong Kong's rich- lations of planning. Climate change is in-
tries as well as poor ones. Between 2018 est residents are often the largest-and, creasing the severity of wet and wild
and 2020 a workshop at Crawley College, given the cramped quarters most Hong weather; this raises the risk that shoddy ex-
near London, taught Chinese cuisine; one Kongers put u p wíth, the ones that most of- tensions or overloaded hillsides will col-
in Portugal still offers training in electrical ten cause a stir. Gardens and swimming lapse. Ríght now Redhill is "under the spot-
automation and industrial robots. The pro- pools sometimes s prawl beyond a proper- light", says Brian Wong of Líber. But he
gramme was not always restricted to Belt ty's registered boundaries. Three-story ex- thinks there are similar risks elsewhere. •
and Road participants: India (a sceptic) has
a Luban workshop in Chennai.
More recently, however, the pro-
gramme a ppears to have been co-opted by
China's central government. It has grown
to involve training providers and compa-
nies from outside Tianjin, and been linked
more explicitly to Mr Xi's foreign policy. In
2018 Mr Xi pledged to open ten workshops
in Africa; a dozen have since opened there.
In May he promised leaders of Central
Asian countries that China would set up
more workshops in their region (the first
opened in Tajikistan last December).
It remains to be seen how long China
will subsidise Luban workshops, and how
far they will live up to their promise. Sorne
are questionable, such as one in war-torn
Mali that teaches traditional Chinese
medicine. But for the moment they repre-
sent a refreshing example of China's gov-
ernment listening to critics-and learning
from its mistakes. • What líes beneath
 The Economist October zist 2023 China 41

Chaguan Xi Iinping's China wants to be loved

warships, guns, horses or swords," l1e declared. "Rather, they are

remembered as friendly emissaries leading camel caravans and
sailing ships loaded with goods." Without mentioning the con-
flicts raging in the Middle East and Ukraine, Mr Xi contrasted this
Chinese focus on trade and development with the selfishness of
world powers that are bent on "ideological confrontation". He an-

, nounced a Global Initiative for Artificial Intelligence Governance.

Though global in name, this promotes a very Chinese worldview.
It would defer to the laws (and censors) of sovereign states, and
prohibit America's current export controls on chips that enable Ar.
In a volatile world, Mr Xi said, the BRI is "on the right side of histo-
' ry". He added a rebuke for countries that practise "econornic coer-
cion" Foreign leaders in the hall were poli te enough not to snigger
or gasp, though China routinely uses trade as a weapon.
As ever in China, much of this propaganda is aimed at domes-
tic audiences. Chinese state media offe red blanket coverage of the
forum, asserting that over 140 countries sent representatives.
They did not mention that just 21 heads of state and government
turned up, fewer than attended the first and second forums, held
in 2017 and 2019-not least because few Western governments
wished to share a stage with President Vladimir Putin of Russia,
Mr Xi's guest of honour. Only one leader from the European Union
''VERY FEW CHINESE" know about the ruthless side of Zheng attended, the Krernlin-friendly Víktor Orban of Hungary,
He, the Ming-dynasty explorer and eunuch admiral, a schol- Mr Putin gave a speech directly after Mr Xi's, To a striking ex-
ar once observed to Chaguan, unexpectedly, over tea in a Beijing tent it reflected his growing dependence on China. As a result of
courtyard house. Pouring fresh cups, the scholar=-a member of Western sanctions imposed after his invasion of Ukraine, China is
China's national-security establishment-warmed to his theme. now the largest buyer of Russian energy, and Chinese exports to
In China, he explained, Zheng He is seen as a 15tl1-century "Santa Russia have soared. Thanking his "dear friend" Mr Xi for the invi-
Claus", leading his fleet to Africa, Arabia and Asia to hand out por- tation to Beijing, Mr Putin played dutiful cheerleader for the BRI.
celain and silks on behalf of his mighty, far-off emperor. But in Sounding at times like his own transport minister, Mr Pu tin reeled
such places as Sri Lanka, Zheng He is remembered as a terror, who off lists of BRI-compatible railway lines and logistics corridors
punished local rulers for defying his imperial writ and shipped that Russia plans to build. He praised the opening last year of a
sorne of thern back to China as captives. The Chinese public is bridge across the Amur riverbetween China and Russia, not men-
"blissfully ignorant" about that history, sighed the scholar, blam- tioning that Russian officials dragged their feet on that project for
ing his country's desire "to be loved". years befare rushing to finish it once the Ukraine war broke out.
Much the same desire suffused the Third Belt and Road Forum, Forgetting Russia's long-standing wariness of Chinese investment
held in Beijing on October rzth and 18tl1. The forum commemorat- in the Arctic, he invited "interested states" to take part in the de-
ed the first ten years of the Bel t and Road Initiative (B RI), a lending velopment of a Northern Sea Route opening upas sea ice retreats.
and infrastructure scheme that has seen China build dams, bridg-
es, ports and more on four continents. In part, the opening speech Putin as a character witness
by Xi Jinping, the Communist Party chief, was a guide to how the In interviews with Chinese state media, Mr Putin offered still
B RI is changing. Wi th China's growth slowing, and many existing more praise. When offering economic opportunities to other
BRI projects mired in debt, there is less emphasis now on billion- countries, Mr Xi's China never imposes or enforces its will, he
dollar loans and on pouring concrete, and more on promoting said. This, he averred, makes the BRI different from policies
Chinese standards and technologies, notably in green and digital pushed by countries with a heavy colonial legacy. Once more, that
infrastructure, and on "small yet smart" grassroots projects. In language echoes Chinese talking points. China's white paper casts
larger part, though, Mr Xi's speech was a call for China to be loved. the BRI's model of development as a challenge to "the exploitative
Addressing foreign dignitaries in the Great Hall of the People, colonialism of the past", It is the spirit of the Belt and Road to ad-
Mr Xi made a case for Chinese exceptionalism. He presented his vocate equality, it argues, in contrast to those who push "the supe-
country as a peace-loving giant, guided by the centuries-old spirit riority of Western civilisation",
of the sílk Road. In this telling, China's Silk Road spirit is not a Attacks on Western arrogance resonate with many developing
charitable impulse, but sornething more dependable: namely, a countries. If the BRI offers useful technologies, skills or invest-
pragmatic pursuit of prosperity via mutually profitable trade. ments, many governments will take that deal. Sorne countries
Though Mr Xi did not mention Zheng He by name, his govern- support China's proposals for global governance, especially if that
rnent's white paper on the BRI, published on the forum's eve, cites means fewer questions about their political systems, or human
the navigator asan inspiration, hailing his seven maritime expe- rights. But those leaders in the Great Hall of the People are not
ditions that "boosted trade along the maritime silk routes". dupes. Por one thing, many remember their history, and how Chi-
The admiral's ghost hung over the speech as Mr Xi repeated one nese naval fleets and armies brought their countries much more
of his favouri te claims abo u t China's past. "The pioneers of the an- than trade over the centuries. Mr Xi's China is taken seriously, es-
cient silk routes won their place in history notas conquerors with pecially by its neighbours. Love has nothing to do with it. •
42

Liberia and Sierra Leone recurring violence. What can Africa and
the world learn from these two countries?
Escaping the conflict trap First, long conflicts rarely end in deci-
si ve military victories, so diplomacy and
negotiations are needed. The wars in Libe-
ria and Sierra Leone both ended in agree-
ments, signed under heavy diplornatic
pressure, that tried to tackle the root caus-
DAKAR
es of the violence. In Sierra Leone, sorne
Liberia and Sierra Leone show the possibilities-and limits-of recovery
fighting resumed after the agreement until
HE ELECTION on October ioth in Liberia Liberia and neighbouring Sierra Leone, a small British military intervention
T (pictured) may have seemed a sleepy
affair, But it was far more rernarkable than
where another bloody civil war ended in
2002, are poor, troubled countries with ro-
pushed the rebels towards a version of the
deal they had already signed.
it appears. Just 20 years ago the west Afri- py democracies. Yet both are in much bet- Another lesson for peacebuilders is
can country was emerging from two devas- ter shape than 20 years ago. The level of ex- how to disarm combatants. Sorne 180,000
tating bouts of civil war in which drug-ad- treme poverty has plummeted. Both coun- fighters handed in their guns across the
dled commanders forced child soldiers to tries were resilient enough to remain two countries, but unlike in other con-
kill their parents, among other atrocities. stable through an Ebola crisis in 2014-16. flicts, they were not integrated wholesale
The war killed perhaps 250,000 people- Since the wars, power has changed hands into the regular army. This was sensible,
roughly a twelfth of the population. peacefully between rival parties once in Li- argues a forthcoming book by two experts:
As wi th every poll sin ce the war, this beria and twice in Sierra Leone. Alan Doss, who was the UN's top person in
election took place amid sorne fears of vio- No post-war president in either country post-war Liberia and befare that its num-
lence and a few deadly clashes. Yet on the has sought to flout constitutional term ber two in Sierra Leone, and David
day the voting was calm, helped by a pledge limits, as has happened in severa! other Harris of Bradford University. In Liberia
by all political parties to ensure a peaceful countries in west Africa. Unusually, nei- the army was disbanded. Sierra Leone's
election. After a tight race there will be a ther country has fallen back into war, was restructured and downsized. The se-
run-off between the incumbent, George whereas many other poor ones-from nior ranks were depoliticised. Liberia even
Weah, once a famous footballer, and Jo- Cameroon and Congo to Somalia and Su- hada foreigner in charge of its new armed
seph Boakai, a former vice-president. dan-have been stuck in a "conflict trap" of forces. Now 61o/o of Liberians say that they
Though sorne worry that violence may yet trust the army, up from 46% in 2012, ac-
erupt if the result in the next round is cording to Afrobarometer, a pollster.
7 Also in this section
close, it has so far been the fourth generally Much of this was possible thanks to ro-
peaceful and broadly fair presidential elec- 43 The ruin of Khartoum bust support from ou tsiders. Nigeria, the
tion since the civil war, and the first since regional hegemon, was "hellbent on end-
44 savlngzoo.ooo lives ayear
UN peacekeepers left in 2018. ing the war" recalls Gyude Moore, a former ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 M id die East & A frica 43

� post-war cabinet minister in Liberia. "Even crepancies were found between the official says, echoes to the sound of gunfire and
long after the war ended, Nigeria still re- count and a parallel sample-based one shelling "every day and every night".
mained really, really involved," America conducted by civil-society groups. The op- The first shots of Sudan's civil war were
and Britain also played an important part, position has since boycotted parliament. fired in Khartoum, where the two rival
ensuring that UN peacekeeping missions "They could have gone to court: they warlords had their headquarters. On one
were sent, and pushing through sweeping didn't," retorts Mr Sengeh. The opposition side is sudan's de facto president, General
debt relief and a fourfold increase in aid says the courts are not im partial. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who leads the Su-
per person. Still, optimism is growing that the cri- danese Armed Forces (SAF). On the other is
Liberia and Sierra Leone also had inter- sis will be resolved. Mediators from ECO- the leader of the RSF, Muhammad Hamdan
nationally respected leaders after the con- WAS, the African Union and the Common- Dagalo, better known as Hemedti. Since
flict. President Ellen J ohnson Sirleaf in Li- wealth have once again returned to Sierra then the fighting has spread far beyond the
beria and President Ahmed Tejan Kabbah Leone. on october isth they began talks be- capital's barracks. In West Darfur, the RSF
in Sierra Leone won broadly credible elec- tween the rival parties. and allied Arab militias are waging a geno-
tions. Ms J ohnson Sirleaf had worked for Thus the final lesson is that good things cidal campaign against the Masalit, a black
the UN and the World Bank, from which take time and unrelenting effort to come to African ethnic group. Nationwide, sorne
her finance minister was directly second- fruition. For hungry, hopeful people in 9,000 civilians have reportedly been
ed. Mr Kabbah was a former UN official. Be- countries trying to emerge from conflict in killed, though this is probably a massive
cause both presidents abided by term lim- Africa-and for their foreign helpers who underestimate. More than 5.6m have been
its, they gave their rivals a strong incentive may be distracted by other crises in places driven from their homes.
to stay in poli tics rather than resume figh t- such as Ukraine and the Middle East=that Though the fighting has spread, Sudan
ing, note the two authors. is perhaps the hardest lesson of all. • is unusual in the degree to which the cen-
Sierra Leone and Liberia also faced up to tre of its war is the country's capital. Ever
the atrocities of the wars, at least to sorne since British imperialists founded the
degree. Both held Tru th and Reconciliation Sudan and its capital modern city on the banks of the Nile, pow-
Commissions (TRCs), which heard from er and wealth in Sudan have been concen-
both victims and perpetrators. "The TRC is Africa's Aleppo trated in Khartoum. The RSF, whose rank-
critical," says David Sengeh, the chief min- and-file are mostly drawn from far-flung
ister (prime minister) of Sierra Leone. Its and downtrodden regions, are now exact-
recommendations are a guide "to rnake ing their revenge. "The RS F believe they
sure you don't go there [back to conflict] ." cannot create a state in their own image
Balancing truth, reconciliation and jus- unless they violently destroy the old one,"
After six months of civil war, little
tice is tough. Sierra Leone established a argues Kholood Khair of Confluence Advi-
remains of Khartoum
special court and successfully prosecu ted sory, a Sudanese think-tank. In recent
sorne perpetrators. But sorne criticised the OHAMMED HUSSAIN, a merchant, is a weeks, RSF fighters are alleged to have
cost of $3oom. In Liberia Ms Johnson Sir-
leaf controversially ignored the rnc's rec-
M refugee in his own city. A few months
after civil war broke out in Khartoum's
burnt land-registration records and taken
over whole residential neighbourhoods.
ommendation to establish a court, partly streets in April, l1e tried to take his sick fa- "Every house is occupied," says another Su-
out of fears it could rekindle conflict. Yet ther to hospital. But the roads were blocked danese analyst. "The city is theirs."
demands from victims and activists to do by soldiers from the Rapid Support Forces Though the RSF controls most of down-
so have since grown louder. (RSF), a rebellious paramilitary group that town Khartoum, including districts that
Alas, not ali the lessons can be applied is trying to seize control of the country. Un- host the presidential palace and other gov-
elsewhere. Conflict is easier to end for a ble to get medica! help, his father died. ernment mínístries, the SAF remains holed
good when it is not about imposing a par- Last month, fighters from the RSF seized up in severa! well-fortified bases in the city
ticular vision on society, say Messrs Doss Mr Hussairi's home, robbing him and centre. It also controls the air base at Wadi
and Harris. In Sierra Leone and Liberia the threatening to kill him. He fled to relatives Saidna, to the north. For months the RSF
fight was primarily about power and re- in another part of the city. Khartoum, l1e has been trying to overrun these redou bts
sources, though this was often refracted of the army. The SAF has responded with a
through ethnic divisions, rather than ide- combination of air strikes, including by
ology, religion or secession. This made it armed drones, and the occasional raid on
easier to get leaders to do deals. Jihadism residential districts and warehouses used
in the Sahel and secessionist fighting in by the RSF, says Nathaniel Raymond, a
Cameroon do not lend themselves so easily conflict monitor atYale University. Mr Bur-
to compromise. han, who fled from the army headquarters
Law and order may simply be easier to in August, now runs what is becoming a de
sustain in small countries. The Economic facto capital in Port Sudan, on the Red Sea.
Community of West African States (Eco- Since the civil war began six months
WAS), a regional club, could do a lot in Libe- ago, more than half the capital's popula-
ria. "It can't do the same in Mali," says Mr tion has fled. "Everyone I know has left
Moore. And peace has lasted because peo- now," says Waleed Adam, who escaped in
ple had suffered so grievously that they July after RSF troops raided his apartment.
said "never agaín", argues Mohamed Ibn Most of those who have remained are too
Chambas, a Ghanaian who was the head of old or too infirm to leave. Many are also too
the executive arm of ECOWAS at the time. poor. Civilians who try to get out risk being
The path from war toan enduring peace robbed or torced to pay bribes to go
is long. In Liberia the last UN peacekeepers through armed checkpoints. "If you forget
left only after a deployment of 15 years. And your ID card for any reason the RSF arrest
obstacles still abound. Sierra Leone's elec- you," says another recent escapee.
tion in June sparked controversy after dis- King of the rubble Many parts of the city are, in effect, un-��
44 Middle East & Africa The Economist October zist 2023

� der siege. Aid agencies can barely operate drawing the joker from a pack of cards.
and medica! care hardly exists. In August Even here, there is cause for hope. Suc-
an airstrike hit one of the city's largest hos- cessive governments have made maternal
pi tals. "Nowhere is safe," says Mustafa Mo- health a priority, training more midwives
duay, a teacher who has stayed put. and monitoring deaths closely. Since 2010
Many of the capital's historie land- a donor-backed initiative has made health
marks as well its factories have been care free for pregnant and breast-feeding
ground to d ust. "old Khartoum has been women. It works imperfectly, and under-
effectively demolished," says Magdi el-Gi- paid staff still ask for a contribution from
zouli of the Rift Valley Institute, a think- patients. But the scheme helps explain
tank. The presidential palace was hit by an why 83o/o of births now happen in clinics,
airstrike in May. The iconic Greater Nile Pe- compared with 50% before fees were abol-
troleum Operating Company Tower, one of íshed. Mortality, though still high, l1as
the capital's tallest buildings and a symbol dropped below the African average.
of the regime of the former dictator, Ornar Women in poor countries die because
al-Bashir, was set alight last month. Khar- they are slow to seek care, slow to reach
toum, says Mr Raymond, faces the fate of hospital, and slow to be treated. Lives can
Dresden, a historie German city destroyed be saved by spotting warning signs early.
by Allied air raids in the second world war. Sierra Leone is having trials for a blood-
Whichever side conquers the capital will pressure monitor, known as CRADLE,
be left ruling over little more than ruins. • which uses a simple traffic-Iight system. If More joy, less sorrow
the device flashes red, a patient should be
referred for emergency treatment. Maria- Another way to reduce maternal deaths
Health ma Momoh, a midwife and public-health is to empower women. When they have
specialist, says it lets workers with even control over their fertility, they have fewer
No miracles basic training rnake fast decisions. babies and at wider intervals, which reduc-
Another innovation, used in severa! es the risk of complications. Governments
required other African countries, is a plastic drape can help by boosting access to contracep-
that is placed beneath the woman during tives. In Senegal improved supply chains
delivery. By noting how much blood l1as Ied to fewer shortages of pills and implants
KEN EMA
collected, health workers can quickly as- in public health centres, notes Gloria Ikile-
How to save the lives of 200,000
sess danger. A recent trial in Kenya, Nige- zi of Exemplars in Global Health, which
mothers a year
ria, Tanzania and South Africa combined studies good practice. When wornen's
REVENTING MATERNAL deaths is not the use of a calibrated drape with a bundle health is a priority they are also more likely
P difficult, says Hannah Saidu, who man-
ages a maternity unit in Sierra Leone, so
of treatments, such as oxytocic drugs and
uterine massage. Severe bleeding was 60%
to receive treatments like iron supple-
ments, which reduce the risk of severe
long as "you have skilled midwives, and lower in trial hospitals. bleeding in childbirth.
you know what to do". If that is obvious, it Innovation only works when there are One recent study estimates that when
still bears repeating. About 200,000 wom- robust health systems to support it. One countries introduce quotas for women in
en in sub-Saharan Africa die in childbirth reason that Nigeria tares so badly is that parliament, maternal mortality falls by 7-
every year, largely from bleeding, hyper- only half of births there are attended by 12% as reproductive-health services im-
tensive disorders and infection. The World skilled staff. In Rwanda, which has a sys- prove. As important are the conversations
Health organisatíon estimates that there tem of community-based health insur- that happen around the cooking stove or
are 545 deaths in the region for every anee, almost every birth is. Ethiopia has the water pump. In Sierra Leone, unwed
100,000 live births, arate four times higher mobilised a "health development arrny" of pregnant teenagers are often thrown out
than in south Asia and 90 times higher volunteers to encourage women to attend by their families and are afraid to visit clin-
than in western Europe. health centres. In many countries, the ics, says Mangenda Kamara of Lifeline Ne-
The rate in Africa has fallen by a third growth of cities is bringing women closer hemiah Projects, a grassroots organisa-
since 2000, but still has a way to go. There to hospitals, where they get better care tion. She is pioneering a scherne that pairs
has been barely any progress in Nigeria, than in rudimentary rural clinics. girls with an older mentor, who encourag-
the continent's most populous country, es thern to go for antena tal check-u ps and
where a woman has a 1 in 19 chance of dying
in childbirth over her lifetime. By contrast,
-
Saved lives
goes with them to hospital during labour.
More than 250 girls have been mentored;
mortality has fallen by three-quarters in Maternal deaths per 100,000 live births none (in that small sample) has died.
Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Rwanda 2,000 Cheap innovation, stronger health sys-
and Sierra Leone (see chart). Those num- tems and wornen's empowerment are
bers point toan encouraging truth: coun- achievable anywhere. But globally, pro-
tries do not have to wait until they are rich 1,500 gress is slowing. There has not been quite
to start saving wornen's lives. the same focus on maternal mortality as
Nigeria
Consider Sierra Leone, which was once, 1,000 there has been on diseases like AIDS and
alongside South Sudan, the worst place in malaria, says Rasa Izadnegahdar of the Bill
Ethiopia
the world to give birth. Health clinics still & Melinda Gates Foundation, a philan-
regularly run short of drugs. Blood sup- :...,, 500 thropic outfit. Innovation has therefore
plies are so limited that patients muster Mozambique spread more slowly than need be. The UN
their own donations from relatives; one o has a goal of reducing maternal mortality
doctor describes giving his own blood be- 1

2000
1 1 1 1 1

05
1 1 1 1 1

10
1 1 1

15
1 1 1

20
worldwide to 70 deaths per 100,000 live
fore operating on a patient. A wornan's life- births by 2030. On current trends that tar-
Source:WHO
time risk of maternal death is the same as get will be missed. •
 45

7 Also in this section

46 Beefing up Ukraine's defence
47 Alexei Navalny's latest punishment

•
•
• • 47 Meloni and Le Pen
- •
48 The EU's troubled electricity market
• "" . � • • •
•
•
49 Charlemagne: Adrift over Gaza
• • •

. '• • • •• • • f

•
• •
•

Poland to govern together, a majority of 248 out of

the 460 seats in the Sejm, the lower house
Tusk's triumph of parliament. Pis l1as just 194, and no
other party so far wants to join them.
The opposition was jubilant. For eight
years it had been shut out, not just from
government but by r-ís's takeover of state
institutions. "Poland won, democracy
WARSAW
won," declared Donald Tusk, the former
A pro-European liberal unseats the hard right
prime minister and ex-president of the
POLLS closed at 9pm on October er since 2015, carne first. But it took just European Council who leads xo. He will al-
T
HE
15th, but those still queueing were al- 35.4 % of the vote, down from 43.6% in most certainly return to office.
lowed to cast their votes, so at one polling 2019. The main opposition alliance, the Pis deployed the state media and state-
station near Wroclaw balloting continued centrist Civic Coalition (xo), got 30.7%. An- owned companies, both stuffed with ero-
until almost jam. A pizzeria delivered 300 other centrist outfit, Third Way, drew nies, to blitz the country with propaganda.
free pies to those standing ou tside. "Better 14.4 %, well above expectations. Lewica That gave ita "clear advantage", according
to wait tour hours than tour years," a voter (The Left), an alliance of leftists and social to a report by the Organisation for Security
there told Gazeta Wyborcza, a newspaper. democrats, managed 8.6%. The hard-right and Co-operation in Europe, a watchdog.
Many had worried that the vicious cam- Confederation party won 7.2%. That gave But it was not enough. The post-election
paign would discourage voters from show- I<O, Third Way and Lewica, which promised rally at ris's headquarters in Warsaw was a��
ing up. Instead turnout reached 74 o/o, Po-
land's highest rate ever=higher even than
in the election in 1989 that brought an end
-
The retu rn of the Donald
to communism. Poland, parliamentary election results, number of seats and 0/o share of vote
Indeed, this election may have been Po-
land's most important since 1989. Rule-of-
law advocates said it was the last chance to
2 23
º The Left PO/Civic Coalition Third Way PiS/United Right Confederation

stop the country's right-wing populist gov- Seats 65 194 mJ

ernment from seizing control of the Share 8.6 30.7 14.4 35.4 7.2 3.7
courts, filling the state with apparatchiks
and wrecking Poland's standing in the EU. Others 1
2019 The Left PO/Civic Coalition Polish Coalition PiS/United Right Confederation
The voters gave the opposition a surpris-
ingly decisive victory. That augurs a Seats 30 235 1
change of direction for Poland and a big Share 12.6 27.4 8.6 43.6 6.8 1.0
setback for Europe's hard right.
Source: Polish interior ministry
The Law and Justice (Pis) party, in pow-
46 Europe The Economist October zist 2023

� shadow of those in earlier years. Its leader, vetoed by Mr Duda or blocked by the Pis- ously corrupt company-in wartime.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, grimly acknowledged controlled constitutional tribunal. Mr Smetanin, a design engineer who
it might not be able to form a coalition. Mr Tusk has promised to unlock €35bn rose from the shop floor to the director's
Days la ter the party still seemed to be in de- ($37bn) in post-covid aid that the European office, is on one level uniquely qualified
nial. "Evil has temporarily won," said Mar- Union has withheld over r ís's meddling for the unenviable job. At the start of the
ek suskí, a Pis MP. Another, Ryszard Ter- with the courts. Pales who expect Mr war in February 2022 he was to be found in
lecki, warned that his fraction would not Tusk's years in Brussels to smooth the way his native Kharkiv, 35l<m from the Russian
be "an easy, gentle and pliant opposition". may be disappointed. Meeting sorne EU border, as the director of its famed but fad-
When Pis swept to power in 2015, i t was conditions will be easy, but one crucial re- ed tank factory. He lived in the factory
Mr Tusk's party that was seen as corrupt form has been blocked bythe constitution- through the terrifying first weeks, as
and out of touch. By contrast, Pis had its al court. The European Commission will bombs fell through its roofs, while a group
ear to the gro un d. It wooed Po les wi th gen- try to stick to its requirements, to refute of key workers continued production in
erous child benefits and infrastructure in- the charge PIS always made: that its cut-off breaks between the shelling. Every defence
vestments, especially in the country's of Poland is about politics, not the rule of contract was eventually fulfilled. "If the
poorer east. But the party's obsession with law. "It's not that just because they have a mortars or artillery were landing near,
control of state institutions and its con- different prime minister, we will say all the you'd wait half an hour befare starting
stant infighting gradually left it sealed in- problems are gone," says a commission of- again," he recalls.
side its own media bubble. Its vicious elec- ficial. Still, the promise of a firmly pro-EU But there are questions about the pos-
toral campaign, which blasted Mr Tusk for prime minister in Warsaw is a sea change sibility, and even the desirability, of turn-
l1is partly German ancestry and Brussels for Poland-and for Europe. • ing around an umbrella organisation built
connections, appealed only to its core on corru ption and favour from its very ear-
voters. Pis also attacked Confederation, its ly days. When the Soviet Union broke up in
only potential coalition partner. Many Ukraine's arms industry 1991, Ukraine inherited one of the world's
Confederation supporters switched to largest military complexes: shipbuilding,
rnírc Way, according to Marcin Palade, a From corruption tanks, aviation, missiles. Over the next two
pollster=thus aiding the opposition. years Ukraine created three agencies that,
By con trast, the opposition's broad to production with the help of poor and corrupt officers,
spread of parties drew in newvoters. So did siphoned off whatever they could on the
clevertactics. Lukasz Litewka, a new MP for black markets, Ukraine stopped making
KYIV
the Left, was given the lowest position on ammunition. Factories stood idle. The
How a 31-year-old hopes to fix
his party's regional list, but won nearly most advanced products were refashioned
Ul<raine's state-owned defence giant
twice as many votes as the party leader for the export market.
after he used his electoral posters to adver- N MARCH Ul(RAINE abruptly rebooted its In 1996, with the government clase to
tise dogs up for adoption ata local shelter,
Social-media campaigns helped raise turn-
I defence-industry team. Oleksandr Ka-
myshin, a hyperactive manager with a re-
bankruptcy, the three agencies were taken
over by a new enterprise with close con-
out among those aged 18-29 to a rernark- formist pedigree, was appointed to head a nections to Russia's security services. (The
able 69o/o, according toan exit poll bylpsos, beefed-u p stra tegic-ind ustries ministry. two countries' defence industries were
up from 46% in 2019. Pis carne last among He has previously turned around the rail- then closely integrated.) A successor struc-
these voters. The opposition's upbeat cam- ways and has the confidence of the presi- ture carne into existence in 2010. The new
paign in the final weeks went down well dent's inner circle. Still more surprising is company, Ukroboronprom, was supposed
with voters tired of polarisation. the recent appointment of Herman Smeta- to be about synergy, but in reality it was
It may be sorne time befare Mr Tusk nin, a little-known jr-year-old. to run the about personal enrichment. "Ukroboron-
gets to form a coalition. The president, state defence consortium popularly prom was dead at birth," says a source who
Andrzej Duda, comes from Pis, and may known as Ukroboronprorn. He is to sort worked in the company at the time.
give that party a (futile) first shot. That out the sprawling, inefficient and notori- When war carne in 2014, and full-scale
could delay the transition until mid-De- invasion in 2022, Ukroboronprorn mobil-
cember. Negotiations will not be easy: the ised but struggled. There were notable suc-
opposition's three groupings are made up cesses, though, Perhaps half a dozen of
of nine sharply different parties. After the what were overa hundred operating units
election Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Karnysz, were still able to produce competitive pro-
who leads an agrarian party within Third ducts. The Pavlohrad chemical plant, for
Way, said he opposes including "ideologi- instance, delivered gunpowder, a com-
cal issues" (such as liberalising abortion) modity most in demand in any war. The
in the coalition agreement. Anna Maria Zu- Luch Design Bureau in Kyiv produced Stug-
kowska, a Left MP, said that in that case na anti-tank guided missiles that l1elped
"farrner issues" would be treated similarly. stop Russia's march on Kyiv, and the Nep-
Once it forms a government, the oppo- tune cruise missiles that famously sank
sition has pledged to undo r is's efforts to Russia's Black Sea flagship, the Mosl<va.
turn Poland into a copy of Viktor Orban's But it has been private enterprise, inde-
Hungary. This will be hard. Returning in- pendent of state-owned Ukroboronprom,
dependence to the state media and state- that has set the pace in this war. strike
owned companies will require removing drones, the new addition to a conflict that
the cronies whom Pis has installed, which otherwise often resembles the first world
could degenera te into its own form of ero- war, are almost all produced privately. The
nyism. Re-establishing an independentju- new drone entrepreneurs believe it is they
diciary will mean undoing r ís's politicisa- who now represent the new face of Ukrai-
tion of the body that nominates judges. nian defence innovation. "I see it as my
That will need legislation, which could be Can Smetanin turn it around? mission to resurrect previous glories," says ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 Europe 47

� Vitaliy Kolesnichenko, the director of Air- his supporters and to haunt Vladimir Pu-
Logix, a Kyiv-based drone developer. tin, whose thugs tried to poison him in
Making Ukroboronprom exciting, well 2020 and then subjected him to torturous
paid but less loss-rnaking is one of the co- conditions in jail when he returned to Rus-
nundrums facing Mr Smetanin. He says his sia the following year after being treated in
focus is on keeping things simple: increas- Germany. Mr Navalny's rare appearances in
ing production, restructuring the business courts (mostly via video link) have turned
and tackling corruption. There is already into political speeches, and visits by his
progress on the first, he reports. Shell pro- lawyers have kept him in touch with the
duction is up by anything between iooss to outside world. "His voice from behind bars
1,000% in the few months he l1as been in sounded unbearably loud for Putin," Leo-
charge, depending on the precise type. nid Volkov, Mr Navalny's chief of staff,
Weapon production in every category is in- wrote on X (formerly Twitter) from Vilnius,
creasing, despite constant Russian attacks. Lithuania's capital.
Reform of the governing structure will in- So Mr Putin decided to turn down the
troduce new subholding clusters of com- volume, and to deprive Mr Navalny of his
panies, which will be organised around last channel of communication. On Octo-
specialisation: armoured vehicles, avia- ber 13tl1 three of Mr Navalny's lawyers-Va-
tion, shipbuilding and so on. The 34 of 66 dim Kobzev, Alexei Liptser and Igor Sergu-
units still organised as state companies nin-were arrested and accused of "partic-
will soon be turned into limited-liability i pa tion in an extremist community"; that
companies or joint-stock companies with is, of passing Mr Navalny's words to the
su pervisory boards. Appointments of fac- outside world. Olga Mikhailova, another of Europe's populists
tory directors, a major source of corruption his lawyers, had left the country by the
in the past, will henceforth be done by an time l1er offices were raided. Greater danger
independent commission. Mr Navalny learned the news from a
A candid ministerial insider suggests journalist during one of his appeal hear-
that public-private partnership may be the ings. "I don't understand what's going on.
only hope for Ukroboronprom and its team My lawyer is not here, All the other lawyers
PARIS
of young reformers. "Can you turn around are not l1ere. Nobody is allowed to visit me.
Marine Le Pen poses a greater threat
so-odd underfunded, corrupt factories? I I am isolated and cut off from any informa-
to Europe than Giorgia Meloni
don't think so. But can you use thern as tion," he told the judge. Even the radio in
platforms for private development? May- his cell has been turned off, he said, to HEN GIORGIA MELONI took overas It-
be." A high-level government source agrees
that Mr Smetanin will find the job of rescu-
plunge hirn into complete silence. Shortly
after that, news carne that Mr Navalny's
W aly's prime minister in October 2022,
Europe's liberals trembled. Her party, the
ing Ukraine's slumbering defence giant fifth lawyer, who was supposed to attend Brothers of Italy, has roots in post-war neo-
hard going. "Logically, he has no hope. Bu t the appeal hearing, had fled the country. fascism, and her electoral pitch, promising
we do live in a country called Ukraine, so The practice of jailing not only dissi- a clampdown on illegal immigration,
he does have a chance." • dents but also their lawyers has been tried promised uncompromisingly hard-right
and tested in Belarus, but is relatively new politics. Ayearon, the pragmatic Ms Mel-
in Russia. Sorne 200 Russian defence law- oni has not turned out to be the disruptive
Russia yers have signed a peti tion denouncing the force sorne feared. Which rnakes centrists
climate of fear in which they operate, and in neighbouring France worry that this
Alexei Navalny calling for a strike. Two volunteers have could help Marine Le Pen.
now come forward to help Mr Navalny. France is not due to hold a presidential
loses bis lawyers Having no legal representation and no vote until 2027. Bu t Ms Le Pen has twice
contact with the outside world makes Mr made it to the run-off, each time to be beat-
Navalny especially vulnerable, as he has en by Emmanuel Macron. The constitution
been awaiting a transfer to one of Russia's forbids him from standing for a third con-
Vladimir Putin's latest attack
toughest prisons for a year. ("I feel like a secutive term. Already, between 2017 and
on his enemy
tired rock star on the verge of depression. 2022, Ms Le Pen increased her run-off vote
LEXEI NAVALNY, Russia's best-known I've reached the top of the charts and from 34 % to 41°/o. Under France's central-
A opposition leader, has been in captivi-
ty for more than 1,000 days, and in solitary
thcrc's nothing more to strive for," he joked
when he heard of his transfer order.)
ised presidency, the possibility of a Le Pen
victory raises particular concern.
confinement for 224 of them. He was de- All this is part of the Kremlin's prepara- Ms Meloni and Ms Le Pen share more
nied medica! treatment when ill, has been tion for next March's presidential election, than hard-right rhetoric. Like Ms Meloni,
refused visits by his family for more than a which is sure to be farcical. Mr Pu tin will Ms Le Pen has tried to distance her party,
year and is not allowed to make telephone aim to demonstrate total political control now called National Rally (RN), from the
calls. Yet Mr Navalny, ever stoical, has de- and to keep his opponents demoralised. A thuggish discourse of its former self: in her
scribed his imprisonment not as martyr- few hours after losing his lawyers, Mr Na- case, the National Front. Unsavoury char-
dom, bu tas a nuisance anda challenge that valny somehow managed to convey that by acters still move in her circle. Bu t Ms Le
needs to be overcome. January 15th he will produce his strategy Pen has promoted the more respectable-
The challenges continue to mount. In for how best to tackle Mr Putin's election, Iooking among them, notably Jordan Bar-
August Mr Navalnywas sentenced toan ad- though i t is not clear how he will now be della, a zs-year-old Euro-deputy who now
ditional 19 years in prison for "extrernism'' able to communicate it. "Prison exists only runs her party. She has also ditched sorne
on top of the eleven-and-a-half years he in your mind," Mr Navalny wrote in one of of the party's most Eurosceptic positions,
was already serving for "fraud", But even his early posts. If so, he remains the freest including a past promise to take France out
then he continued to communicate with man in Russia. • of the euro, which proved un popular. ��
48 Europe The Economist October zist 2023

� Ms Le Pen has worked hard to normalise ruling coalition. On September rzth Ms Le budget rules and energy policies.
the party too. Her suit-wearing deputies Pen was guest of honour at his party's an- The visi t seemed to go well. The tandem
heckle far less than do members of the nual jamboree in Lombardy, a stronghold. even made progress on perhaps the most
other main parliamentary opposition bloc, Launching her party's campaign for next tricky dossier, a reform of the EU electricity
NUPES, a left-wing alliance. The party june's elections to the European Parlia- market that is meant to ease the burden of
wants to show that it is not there just to ment there, she vowed to "put Europe back price spikes for European households and
rant and block, but is ready=Iíke Ms Mel- in its place". Polis suggest the RN will beat businesses and to bolster Europe's com-
oni in Rome-to govern. Mr Macron's centrists into second place. peti ti veness against America and China.
The chief reason to think that Ms Le Pen It could be that, as Ms Meloni runs into Yet behind the scenes France and Germany
poses a far greater threat is geopolitical. Ms domestic difficulty, particularly over eco- continued to argue. That went on until the
Meloni is no friend of Russia's Vladimir nomic management, this will rub off on Ms very day of a meeting of EU energy minis-
Putin. Ms Le Pen's party, by contrast, took a Le Pen too. On immigration, argues Domi- ters on October rzth. And even though they
€9m loan from a Kremlin-linked bank nique Reynié, head of Fondapol, a think- managed to strike a compromise, there is
(which i t has just paid back). During her tank, "Meloni demonstrates the impotence plenty of bad blood. Paris sees the deal as a
presidential campaign in 2022 Ms Le Pen of populists." The number of migrants ar- French victory; the Germans insist that
briefly used a photo of her next to Mr Putin riving in Italy has surged on her watch. For their views largely prevailed.
in a flyer, pu blished befo re he sent the now, though, Ms Meloni is also showing The core of the row is over how EU
tanks into Ukraine. Although she de- that the populist right can run a big Euro- members can subsidise their industries in
nounced the invasion, ata parliamentary pean country. That is enough to make the face of the hefty increases in energy
hearing in May this year Ms Le Pen contin- French centrists shudder. • prices that followed Russia's invasion of
ued to defend the referéndum held in Cri- Ukraine. France wants to extend to all its 56
mea after Russia annexed the Ukrainian nuclear power plants instruments called
territory in 2014. EU energy market "contracts for difference" ( cfn). These are
Moreover, in office Ms Meloni has been guarantees issued by the government that
a firm backer of NATO, and of arming Uk- High tension oblige it to stump up for the difference if
raine. Ms Le Pen, on the other hand, not market prices turn out lower than an
only wants to pull France out of NATO's in- agreed "strike price", but let it pocket the
tegrated military command. She has also extra if the market price is higher. Berlin
argued against the alliance's expansion wants cfns to be an incentive for invest-
BERLIN
evento Sweden and Finland, let alone Uk- ment in renewable energy that should be
Paris and Berlin compromise on
raine. She thinks "Russian paranoia" abou t applied only to new plants. It worries that
reform of the electricity market
NATO on its borders should be "taken into their use for France's nuclear fleet will de-
account", lifting an argument straight from HEN EMMANUEL MACRON and Olaf ter investment in renewables.
the Moscow script, and has cri ticised
France for sending heavy weaponry to Uk-
W Scholz met for a cou ple of days of
talks along with their top ministers in
The compromise struck in the small
hours of October rsth says that govern-
raine. Ms Meloni, says an RN official disap- Hamburg earlier this month, the French ments can apply cfns to investments
provingly, is "very Atlanticist". president and the German chancellor tried aimed at "substantially" upgrading exist-
Ms Meloni has so far played by EU rules, to presenta united front. They munched ing plants to increase their capacity or to
but Ms Le Pen still vows to overturn them. Fiscnbrotchen (fish sandwiches) with their prolong their lifetime. But any revenue
Her scherne is to lean on like-minded gov- wives and took a tour of Hamburg harbour. gleaned must not distort competition and
ernments-in Hungary and Slovakia, The two-day meeting was meant to reset trade in the interna! market. It should
though not for much longer in Poland-to the most important bilateral relationship therefore go to consumers, and to ind ustry
transform the EU from within into an "allí- within the EU, one that had beco me only under tight restrictions.
ance of nations", She wants to hold a refer- increasingly troubled owing to a host of ac- "This was absolutely nota German cru-
endum to amend the Prench constitution rimonious disagreements on defence, EU sade against nuclear energy," says Sven
in arder to entrench its "superiority" over Giegold, a state secretary at Germany's
EU law. And she vows to reduce France's economy ministry. Germany's opposition
contribution to the EU budget. If others do to the Prench proposal was sim ply to en-
not co-operate, insists Jean-Philippe Tan- sure a leve! playing field. By extending eros
guy, an RN deputy who helped run Ms Le to its entire nuclear fleet, France hoped
Pen's presidential campaign, "we would that a low strike price fixed with EDF, the
force their hand", for instance by refusing state-owned electricity firm, would allow
to pay. Anything of the sort would begin to the government to pocket the extra rev-
pull the EU apart. enue from high market prices that it could
such is the talk. Whether a French pres- then pass back to ind ustry. This would give
ident could enact such changes is another French industry an unfair advantage.
matter. Even were Ms Le Pen to win the The compromise will still need to go
presidency, her party would not by itself through the EU parliament. Moreover, lots
secure a parliamentary majority. Any con- of the detail is unresolved. The mutual irri-
stitutional change has to be approved ei- tation is unlikely to subside in the coming
ther by referendum or by a three-fifths ma- months. "Both countries are increasingly
jority in a joint sitting of both houses. Par- committed to an energy strategy that is
liament also has to approve any nomina- viewed by the other as doomed to fail,"
tion to the Constitutional Council. writes Shahin Vallée of the German Coun-
A good measure of Ms Le Pen's distance cil on Foreign Relations. France will con-
from Ms Meloni is the fact that her real ally tinue to double down on nuclear energy;
in Italy is not the prime minister but Mat- Germany instead is betting the country's
teo Salvini, a more populist member of the The electron wars energy future on its renewables. •
 The Economist October zist 2023 Europe 49

Charlemagne Back to cacophony

The eti's incoherent response to the crisis in Israel has exposed the limits of its geopolitical heft
cians have instead looked within: a virtual meeting of 27 national
leaders was arranged on October rzth to get everyone on the same
page, which was not Mrs von der Leyen's, A fraught personal rela-
tionship between her and Charles Michel, who as European Coun-
cil president chairs meetings of EU leaders, used to be the stuff of
the Brussels cocktail circuit. Now it looks as if it made the bloc
(( even more impotent than it might otherwise have been.
The episode is damaging for Mrs von der Leyen, who since the
war in Ukraine had been the face of a more forceful, geopolitical
Europe. Her influence-and that of the EU-seemed to extend be-
yond Ukraine, A speech she gave in March calling for a "de-risk-
ing" rather than a "decoupling" of economic relations with China
had set a new tone in the relationship there; she has worked close-
ly with America, too. N ew buzz phrases like "strategic autonorny"
and "Tearn Europe" had hinted at the bloc playing its full part in
geopolitics, a third power in a bipolar world.
But in trying to project a similarly forceful EU in the Middle
East, the unity that underpinned Europe's previous efforts was
lacking. Sorne countries in Europe, notably Mrs von der Leyen's
native Germany, align instinctively with Israel, and emphasise its
right to defend itself. But others, such as Spain and Ireland, are
more closely attuned to the plight of Palestinians, and warn of an

N
OTHING SCREAMS "great power" like an aircraft-carrier. And so impending humanitarian disaster. Many simply felt the dispute
on October ioth Thierry Breton, the European commissioner was beyond the paygrade of the EU's central institutions. Ukraine
hailing from France, raised the idea of the EU availing i tself of such united the continent: European leaders jointly visited Kyiv after
a seafaring airbase. Alas, even before the merits of a floating jet- the city beat bacl< Russian attackers last year. This latest crisis di-
launcher for a bloc with neither navy nor air force could be consi- vides it. This week the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, travelled to
dered, the EU's geopolitical ambitions fared as poorly as a plane Israel alone. France's Emmanuel Macron is considering a later tri p.
lurching off the deck and into the drink. In the days around Mr Mrs von der Leyen might have sensed that conflict in the Mid-
Breton's flight of fancy, a fumbled response to the terrorist attacks dle East was always going to be uniquely polarising. Israel is both
in Israel on October 7th left Europe looking muddled. A union that close enough for Europe tocare about-its scientists benefit from
had found its foreign-policy voice over Ukraine has rediscovered EU funding schemes, Israelí football teams play in European com-
its penchant for cacophony. A bout of chaotic diplomacy and in- petitions and its crooners participate in the Eurovision Song Con-
terna! squabbling has set back the cause of a "geopolitical EU" to test-yet too remote for a conflagration there to feel directly
match China and America. threatening. Every EU country has its own relationship with the
Europe's response to the crisis started off badly and got steadily region, coloured by their Muslim and J ewish populations. Most
worse. Beyond the usual lighting-up of buildings in the colours of fear a spillover of the violence onto their own streets. Anti-Semi tic
whichever country is mourning its dead, the first reaction of note incidents in Europe have flared since the Ramas strike: France and
to come out of Europe was the announcement that the EU would Belgium have both endured terrorist attacks. Otl1ers fret that a re-
suspend ali development aid to Palestinians-a serious move, gional conflagration could result in a new wave of migration to
considering the bloc is their largest donor. The policy was re- Europe, as happened after wars in syria and Afghanistan.
versed the very same day amid rising concerns in national capitals
about the living conditions of innocent Gazans caught up in the Eyeless in Gaza
fighting. Later in the week, on October ijth, the cornmission's Divided or otherwise, it is unlikely Europe would have had much
boss, Ursula von der Leyen, travelled to Israel. The message she de- sway on Israel's response to being attacked. But its impotence is
livered there was dutifully sympathetic. But national capitals starting to look serial. The EU for years painted itself as a mediator
fumed that she had failed to emphasise their concern that any re- in a territorial dispute pitting Azerbaijan against Armenia, yet
sponse from the Israelí side needs to keep within the boundaries could do little but meekly protest when Azerbaijan turfed tens of
of international law. Government after government briefed that thousands of Armenians out of a disputed enclave last month. A
she was speaking not for the EU, merely for herself. As the furo re deal with Tunisia to help cut migration across the Mediterranean
mounted, Mrs von der Leyen's team speedily announced that the has floundered: Tunisia returned €6om ($63m) the EU had paid it
EU's humanitarian aid to Gaza was to be tripled. to seal the agreement. Even closer to home, disorder reigns as Kos-
The war in Ukraine had given the EU a measure of geopolitical ovo and Serbia keep tussling despite entreaties from Brussels.
swagger. In the face of war, the club had found new means to be The ru's fans hoped that its impressive response to Russia's in-
relevant, for example by paying for arms to be sent to hit back at vasion of Ukraine had exorcised a set of demons which have long
Russian invaders. That kind of unified resolve now looks like a haunted it: that it is a construct perfectly adept at standardising
one-off. Attempts at forging a cohercnt response to a crisis just be- phone chargers and making farmers rich, but one that scarcely
yond its shores have been caught up in bickering between nation- matters when it comes to high poli tics. A fortnight of disunion has
al capitals and even between different EU institutions in Brussels. made the EU look as plodding as ever: a club that does not shape
Far from projecting power to the outside world, European poli ti- geopolitics so muchas endure its effects. •
so

7 Also in this section

51 Collating NHS patients' data

52 Bagehot: Tory rationing
7 Read more at: Economist.com/Britain
The troubled SNP gathers

Perky manufacturing

A land rush for vineyards

The state of Dartmoor

The NHS keeping many alive who would, without it,

be dead. But not being dead is not the same
From sickness service as being healthily alive: an average Briton
may reach only 60 or so in good fettle (see
to health service chart on next page). As Raghib Ali, the chief
medica! officer of Our Future Health (and
its volunteer number one), says: "What we
have ... is not really a National Health Ser-
WATFORD
vice but a national sickness service."
The world's largest health-research study wants to save lives-and the NHS
It was never meant to be like this, When
OLUNTEER NUMBER ONE rolled up his queues forming. The plan is to recruit sm in 1943 Winston Churchill promised Brit-
V sleeve on July 12tl1 last year. Volunteer
two pu t out an arm to give blood the same
people-almost as many as there are in
Norway-and get thern weighed, mea-
ain a health service "from the cradle to the
grave" no one dreamt that Britons would
day. Volunteer 100 stepped onto the scales sured, quizzed, genotyped, phenotyped. spend so long with one foot in that grave,
on August jrd. A tape measure was slipped Then to putthe data to work to seewho gets or cost so muchas they stood there. On the
around the waist of volunteer i.ooo on Sep- sick, with what, and when, and why=and contrary: it was thought that the NHS
tember joth. Then things sped up: volun- if intervening early can help, The aim is would get cheaper over time as Britons-
teer 100,000 gave blood this March. The simple. To save them-and the NHS. Be- laid in their cradles by NHS midwives, for-
roll is now growing so fast-by thousands cause as Sir John Bell, regius professor of tified by NHS vaccinations-would gaze
every day-that putting a precise number medicine at Oxford University and the through their newly issued NHS spectacles
in print is pointless: by the time you read study's chair, says, the NHS is "not sustain- to a bright, healthy future. The nns's very
this it will be out of date. By the end of this able in its current form", existence, wrote William Beveridge, its ar-
year this research study-called Our Fu ture The NHS has two main problems. The chitect, would lead to "a reduction in the
Health-will be Britain's largest of its kmd. first is that it works badly. The second is number of cases requiring it", It was, one
By the end of next year, the world's. that it works well. Its failings-waiting politician later said, "a miscalculation of
Across Britain, the study is unfurling. lists, queuing ambulances, costs invari- sublime dimensions".
In Liverpool and in London, in Manchester ably labelled "spiralling"-are well known. In its first year the NHS promptly ran
and Grimsby and Oxford, in dreary super- Its successes are harder to see-bu t are twice over budget, not helped by those NHS
market car parks, mobile vans are drawing there in those same lists, queues and costs. specs, of which twice as many pairs (8m)
up, cubicle curtains being drawn back and For all exist, in part, because the NHS is were handed out as had been expected. ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 Britain 51

� Aneurin Bevan, the father of the NHS,

grumbled that "cascades of medicine [are]
-
Three score years and then
lar software doctors have diagnosed cancer
patients quicker when their scans, pre-
pouring down British throats-and they're Britain, disability-free life expectancy at birth scriptions and appointments are collated
not even bringing the bottles back." It has By region, 2018-20, years in one place. When one hospital trust com-
not got cheaper: the budget for NHS Eng- • Female • Male
bined data to monitor barriers to dis-
land is f169bn ($205bn) this year. Its prog- charges, the number of long stays fell by
� 56 58 60 62 64 66
nosis is "hopeless, actually", says Sir J ohn. London over a third. Opportunities go far beyond
People tend to use the verb "collapse" to de- helping doctors see more patients. Artifi-
South East
scribe the end of the NHS. It will not. It will cial intelligence trained on large datasets
do something worse: it will ebb. Those who East of England spots patterns human eyes never could.
can afford to leave, will. Those who can't South West The covid-is response proved the bene-
will stay and queue and suffer. "our NHS" fits of joining up data. With the help of Pa-
East Midlands
will, almost imperceptibly, become "Their lantir Technologies, an American firm,
NHs". And Bevan's dream will be lost. West Midlands real-time insights gleaned from combined
To save it Britain must do no less than Scotland datasets enabled officials to dispatch ven-
"pivot the way we deliver health care", says North West
tilators and personal protective equipment
Sir John. The NHS must stop mainly treat- to where they were most needed, and to de-
ing people who are manifestly very sick Wales sign vaccination campaigns targeting the
and get them when they still, ostensibly, Yorkshire and the Humber most vulnerable. Because software engi-
seem well. Which is why, on a rainy Friday North East neers were linking data rather than build-
afternoon, Dr Ali, slight, clever, softly spo- Source: ONS
ing a central repository, data stores could
ken, is standing in an unprepossessing be built and refined more quickly, This
Tesco car park in Watford outside a yellow marked a departure from previous clunky,
van. On it is the Our Future Health logo- tests and, if necessary, treatment. costly, failed NHS data projects.
and the NHS one. (The study is a public- It will not be perfect: inevitably there The FDP was intended to be the latest it-
private partnership: one-third of its f239m will be false positives and consequent eration of covid-era ingenuity. Instead it
budget is funded by government, two- anxiety. It remains to be seen whether the appears to be running on the same old
thirds by life-sciences companies.) Inside, NHS-a cantankerous, intransigent 75- scripts. Poor communication meant that
people wait as a fine drizzle falls. year-old patient-will accept its medicine. until recently sorne NHS trusts' own data
The unprepossessing air of this study- Dr Ali is optimistic: "lt's quite hard to see chiefs were unsure of what the FDP was
all those car parl<s-is not accidental. The how the study could fail," And in Watford meant to do. As pressures have mounted
life-expectancy gap between Britain's rich- and in Grimsby and in Manchester, volun- on front-line services, "digital transforma-
est and poorest local authorities is ten teers queue, and roll up their sleeves. Sorne tion" has again been deprioritised. Hospi-
years. Yet the gap in expectancy of life to help the NHS. Sorne to help thernselves. tals still spend f234m ($285m) a year on
without ill health is 20. And those at the Sorne to help both. Because we are all in storing paper records, according to the
bottom of such ranges tend not to volun- this together. Por now. • Times Health Commission.
teer for medica! studies. Dr Ali is obsessed The procurement process has also
by ensuring that they do. Which is why raised the antennae of privacy activists.
those yellow vans are drawing up in the car Health data They would always have twitched at the
parks of Tesco, Asda, Lidl and Morrisons. front-runner for the f48om contract: Pa-
"Not Waitrose." Medica! trials don't need Joining up the bots lantir, which has combined data for the
more Waitrose shoppers. CIA. (Comments by the firrn's co-founder,
As the rain falls, Dr Ali welcomes volun- Peter Thiel, likening Britons' affection for
teers in. The NHs's size is its great weak- the NHS to Stockholm syndrome, only add
ness-it is unwieldy and all but impossible to activists' misgivings.) To the suspicious,
to reform-but also its strength. rne RE- the fact that the firm ini tially handled the
An imperfect but necessary attempt
COVERY trial, which found that a cheap ste- nns's covid analytics for a mere f1 has the
to bring together patients' data
roid cut covid deaths by a third, yielded a feel of a stitch-up. Since data will be used
result within 100 days. Sir Martín Landray, EING IN HOSPITAL is rarely fun. But for direct patient care in the FDP, people
a professor of epidemiology at Oxford who
ran RECOVERY and now runs Protas, a not-
B sorne things in the National Health Ser-
vice (NHS) contrive to add to patients'
cannot opt out of sharing it. Though it will
be anonymised, this risks eroding trust in
for-profit founded to improve clinical pains. When IT systems cannot talk to each what the NHS does with data.
trials tackling common conditions, says other, the sick must drive themselves dizzy No surprise then that the winner of the
that in its breadth (almost 7om people) and repeating their medica! histories in every contract, dueto be revealed in September,
Iength of coverage (from cradle to grave) new interaction. Withou t good systems to is yet to be announced. Bu t even if the FDP
the NHS is "almost unique ...The opportuni- manage data, operating rooms often lie does goes ahead, after myriad delays, sorne
ties are really enorrnous." empty despite endless demand. such sna- wonder if it will ultimately prove obsolete.
Our Future Health is trying to make the fus are not only maddening, but harmful. The contract lasts seven years, which risks
most of them. Each volunteer will genera te Each delay to treatment compounds back- lockíng the NHS into the software. The FDP
hundreds of data points for researchers logs exacerbated by strikes and the co- is likely to be outpaced by projects that
immediately; billions when their genomes vid-ts pandemic, pushing the NHS waiting share data beyond the NHS, and can adapt
are sequenced. That data will be married to list in England to a record 7.75m cases. more nimbly to innovation.
their NHS data; AI will be used to crunch Such inefficiencies are not inevitable. That doesn't mean it shouldn't go
the lot. Then the work will begin: volun- Many can be reduced by stitching together ahead. Trusts will still be free to pursue
teers will (if they wish) be told what condi- disparate datasets across the NHS, as an their own plans. But for the nns's laggards
tions they are at risk of and, for certain upcoming project, the Federated Data Plat- the project should be the start, not the end,
conditions (sorne cancers, diabetes, heart form, or FDP, should do. Its boring name of joining up data. In these difficult times,
disease) be put on NHS pathways, for more belies big ambitions. In pilots using simi- the NHS needs all the help it can get. •
52 Britain The Economist October zist 2023

Bagehot Caught short

How rationing became the fashion under the Tories

Eioobn (sizobn) high-speed railway, the prime minister painted it
as redistribution. In fact it was rationing. Money saved could be
spent on other schernes, he argued. Given Britain's record in
building infrastructure, it is faír to assume few will materialise.
The result will be that trains remain congested and further pres-
sure is heaped on roads. Since politicians fear pricing roads prop-
erly to manage demand, expect more traffic jams. Ultimately, gov-
ernment policy is for people to travel less.
Sometimes rationing makes for subtle savings. Cutting bene-
fits for, say, children with special needs would be cruel and un-
popular. Making them hard to get attracts less attention. Profes-
sional email-slingers may not be daunted by a 39-page application
to unlock four figures' worth of benefits; others may struggle
without help. Often, what looks like government generosity is in
fact more rationing. Amida glut of green measures, Mr Sunak in-
creased the subsidy for installing a heat pump to f 7,500 from
f.5,000. At the same time, the government <lid not increase fund-
ing for the programme. Fewer people will benefit.
The effects of rationing are most pernicious in housing, A dis-
cretionary planning system, with building approved or denied by
planners and politicians, inevitably leads to shortages of homes in
the manner Kornai would recognise, argues Anthony Breach of
HEN WANDSWORTH PRISON opened in south-west London in Centre for Cities, a think-tank. In 2020, the Conservatives prom-
W 1851, its Victorian architects thought it was fit for 1,000 in-
mates. Today it hosts 1,600. The conditions are worse than
ised to loasen the system. Backbench MPS scu ppered it: the minis-
ter responsible was ejected. Strict rationing remains even where
Dickensian: cells designed for one in the 19tl1 century now house the government has tried to remove it.
two, or more. Vermin are rife. A recent report labelled the prison Where sorne rationing is supposed to happen, such as in health
"overcrowded" and "squalid", care, shortages have reached new highs. In the National Health
Wandsworth is the norm rather than the exception. A prison Service in England, waiting lists stand at nearly 8m cases, in a
estate with a capacity of 88,782-even allowing for Wandsworth- country of 56m people. Those in the queue are the lucky ones.
style overcrowding-holds 88,225. Judges, realising they had no- Each morning across Britain, patients are forced to calla GP at 8am
where to send rogues, delayed sentencing. On October 16th the on the dot if they want an appointment. In 2005, SirTony Blair was
Conservative government reversed-engineered a solution: letting berated on the asc's "Question Time" by angry guests annoyed be-
criminals out early and sending fewer of thern to jail. cause GPs only offered appointments inconveniently soon. Now,
For a party elected to hang 'ern and flog 'ern, or at least lock 'ern only inconsistent rationing-and grumpy receptionists= keep
up, this is a rernarkable shift. Prisons are overcrowded in part be- acu te care from being overwhelmed.
ca use Conservative politicians have demanded longer sentences.
At the same time, the government refused to build enough new Completely irrational
prisons. The 20,000 extra places promised by the mid-zozos will When Kornai explained his theory to an audience of Maoists in
not arrive until 2030 at the earliest. And so the government finds Kolkata in 1975, they reacted with horror. Better to suffer shortage
itself rationing prison places instead. than iniquity, ran their logic. Voters in Kenilworth have similar in-
Such rationing is in vogue. Prisons are simply the most absurd stincts. Allowing the market to police access to services makes
example of a tactic increasingly deployed by the governmen t. Britons feel icky, Charging to see a GP is politically forbidden: eight
From health care to welfare via heat-pump subsidies and plan- in ten voters oppose the idea. Whenever road-pricing is men-
ning, erratic rationing has become the norm. Politicians are not tioned, cri tics are quick to label ita "poll tax on wheels'. The Tories
willing to increase taxes enough to cover the real costs of the ser- are allergic to the high taxes required for a European-sized state
vices voters demand. Nor are voters willing to pay them. And nei- but no longer have the cojones to support market-based solutions.
ther side is willing to forgo the dream of comprehensive services Rationing is the miserable compromise.
on the cheap. The results are shortages, which can be managed Forcing Britons to queue, cajole receptionists or go without the
only by queues, unpredictable rationing and ministerial diktat. services they are owed is no way to run a country. The fix for Brit-
It is a familiar problem. [anos Kornai, a Hungarian economist, ain is the same as it was for the eastern bloc. "The lasting solution
examined how Soviet economies failed to supply enough of the to misery líes in reforming production, not distribution," wrote
things people wanted. When things running out was the "normal Kornai. "Rationing systems that spread misery equally may as-
state for the system, notan unusual event" itwas a "shortage econ- suage feelings of injustice for a while, but they will not solve any-
orny". In Britain, mercifully, capitalism thrives in the prívate sec- thing." Britain's public services must become more efficient. Mak-
tor. Su perrnarket shelves are full and a brand new BMW is yours, if ing them so will not be cheap, but it beats the alternatives. Britons
you can afford it. When it comes to government services it is an- must either pay more for those services, expect less or face up to a
other story. Shortages reign. Where the Russians built a shortage fu ture of erratic provision, in which stamina, persistence and luck
economy, the Tories have created a shortage state. trump need-and people who would otherwise be in HMP Wands-
When Rishi Sunak cancelled the Manchester leg of HS2, a worth are wandering in the streets. •
 53

• •
:>

Business and geopolitics In practice, their policies are not always

aligned with Uncle sam's. The result could
Control shift be a mesh of rules that, once in place,
would impose costs on technology compa-
nies without doing much to bolster na-
tional security in the way that the regimes'
architects envisioned.
This is not the first time that the demo-
SINGAPORE AND TAIPEI
cratic world has attempted to stem the flow
America's allies are the boles in its export-control fence
of technology to undemocratic adversar-
MERICA MAI<ES no bones about want- definite waivers to install equipment that ies. After the second world war 17 coun-
A ing to stop China, its autocratic rival
for geopolitical supremacy, from getting
falls under these restrictions in their fac-
tories in China. Four days later TSMC, Tai-
tries, led by America, established the Co-
ordinating Committee for Multilateral Ex-
hold of advanced technology. On October wan's chipmaking champion, also re- port Controls to limit exports of strategic
rzth American officials extended restric- ceived a dispensation. The carve-outs were resources and technologies to the Commu-
tions on sales to the country of advanced secured (and announced) by governments nist bloc. The body was disbanded in 1994,
microchips used in training artificial-in- in Seoul and Taipei, which are keen to pro- once the Soviet threat was no more.
telligence (Ar) models. This is the latest set tect their domestic firms' vast commercial America's efforts to co-ordinate sorne
of export controls designed to prevent cut- interests in China. They also shine a light of its anti-Chinese restrictions have so far
ting-edge tcch that America helped create, on the knotty nature of the American-led been much more piecemeal. The closest
meaning most of it these days, from mak- global export-control regime. President J oe Biden's administration has
ing its way to the Chinese mainland. It also American sanctions' global pretensions come to co-ordination is an opaque agree-
seeks to close a loophole, which allowed depend on the co-operation of allies. In ment sealed in January with Japan and the
Chinese firms' foreign subsidiaries to pro- principle, democratic governments in Asia Netherlands. This was important to Amer-
cure chips that their parents were barred and Europe are similarly wary of China, ica because Dutch and Japanese compa-
from purchasing, and are devising their own export controls. nies, such as ASML and Tokyo Electron, re-
The loophole is almost certainly not the spectively, are the sole manufacturers of
last one that will need closing. Just this sophisticated chipmaking tools without
month America itself created room for a 7 Also in this section which it is almost impossible to produce
few more. Last year it imposed sweeping the most advanced semiconductors. In Ju-
54 Bartleby: Luck and career success
restrictions that cut off people and firms in ly Iapan's government introduced rules
China from many advanced technologies 55 Meet I ndia's mega-wealthy limiting the exports of advanced chip tech-
of American origin, including types of cut- nology. Its Dutch counterpart followed suit
56 CanontakesonASML
ting-edge chips, the software to design in September.
them and the tools to manufacture them. 56 Oil supermajors' trading bets Look closer, though, and the nu ts and
On October 9th it granted two South Kore- bolts of the three countries' export con-
58 Schumpeter: Are CEOs overpaid?
an chipmakers, Samsung and SI< Hynix, in- trols vary considerably. The Bureau of In-��
54 Business The Economist October zist 2023

� dustry and Security (BIS), America's ex- Various national regimes diverge in European Union. For now individual EU
port-control agency, publishes an "entíty other meaningful ways. American allies in members retain discretion over export
list" of thousands of companies, including Europe and Asia have not sough t to copy controls related to their national security.
plenty of Chinese ones, that are barred the extensive, extraterritorial reach of But given the bloc's single market in goods,
from being sold certain types of technolo- American sanctions. As a result, Asían and which lets technology flow across borders
gy. Japan has no such public entity list. In- European companies that wish to continue unimpeded, Eurocrats in Brussels want a
stead, it has announced a list of 23 specific selling technology to Chinese customers greater say.
types of product which require an export can in theory establish subsidiaries in On October jrd the European Commis-
licence. The Japanese government has as- places without strict export controls (at sion presented a list of areas deemed criti-
siduously avoided mentioning China spe- least as long as these firms do not rely on ca! to the bloc's economic security. It
cifically, for fear of sparking the ire of a big American inputs). would like the ability to impose EU-wide
trading partner. The Netherlands' controls, The situation in Europe is complicated export controls in these areas, which in-
too, are "country-neutral" and applied to a further by the division of responsibilities elude advanced chips, quantum comput-
handful of p rod ucts. between national governments and the ing and artificial intelligence. It is unclear ��

Fortune tells

The role of luck in careers, companies and compensation

UCI< PLAYS a big and often unacknowl- tioners believe that luck affects the out- talent and hard work. Although sorne
L edged part in career success, starting
in the womb. Warren Buffett has talked
come of exploration projects. The authors'
analysis of 50 years of drilling on the
have argued that entrepreneurs are sim-
ply people fortunate enough to have a
of winning the "ovarían lottery" by being Norwegian Continental Shelf concluded large appetite for risk, skill does matter.
born in America when he was, and being that the differences in success rates be- A paper from 2006 by Paul Gompers of
wired in a way that pays off in a market tween individual firms were random. Harvard University and his co-authors
economy. Good looks are associated with There is a long-running debate about showed that founders of one successful
higher pay and a greater chance of being whether Iuck affects executives' pay. A company have a higher chance of suc-
called to interview in hiring processes. recent paper by Martina Andreani and ceeding in their next venture than en-
Your experience of discrimination will Lakshmanan Shivakumar of London trepreneurs who previously failed. Better
reflect your circumstances of birth. Business School and Atif Ellahie of the technology and greater expertise reduce
The early way-stations in a career are University of Utah suggests that it does. the role of chance: the average success
often rnarked by chance: a particularly The academics looked at the impact of a rates in oil exploration, for example,
encouraging boss, say, oran assignment big corporate-tax cut in America in 2017, have gone u p over time.
that leads you off in an unexpected bu t an event which resulted in large one-off But if luck <loes play a more important
defining direction. Luck can affect the tax gains and losses for firms that were role in outcomes than is often acknowl-
pathways of the most rational-minded based on past transactions and that could edged, what <loes that mean? For individ-
professions. A paper published in 2022 not be attributed to managers' skills. They uals, it suggests you should increase the
by Qi Ge of Vassar College and Stephen found that larger windfall gains led to chances that chance will work in your
Wu of Hamilton College found that higher pay for CEOs of less scrutinised favour. Partners at Y Combinator, a start-
economists wíth harder-to-pronounce firms; tax losses did not seem to affect up accelerator, encourage founders to
names, including within ethnic groups, their earnings. Lucky things. apply to their programmes by talking
were less likely to be placed into academ- Justas sorne people blindly believe that about increasing the "surface area of
íc jobs or get tenure-track positions. merit determines success, so it is possible luck": putting yourself in situations
Names can work against economists to get too hung up on the role of chance. where you may be rejected is a way of
in other ways. Another study, by Liran CEOS may well be rewarded for luck bu t giving luck more opportunity to strike.
Einav of Stanford University and Leeat slogging to the top of companies involves An awareness of the role that luck
Yariv, now of Princeton University, found plays ought to affect the behaviour of
that faculty with earlier surname initials managers, too. Portfolio thinking reduc-
were more likely to receive tenure at top es the role of luck: Messrs Milkov and
departments, an effect they put down to Navidi rnake the point that the probabil-
the fact that authors of economics papers ity of striking it lucky in oil exploration
tend to be listed alphabetically. goes up if firms complete numerous
Performing well can be dueto luck, independent wells. If luck can mean a
not talent. In financia! markets, asset bad decision has a good result, or vice
managers who shine in one period often versa, managers should learn to assess
lose their lustre in the next. The rise of the success of an initiative on the basis of
passive investing reflects the fact that process as well as outcome.
few stockpickers are able persistently to And if the difference between skill
outperform the overall market. The and luck becomes discernible over time,
history of the oil industry is shot through then reward people on consistency of
with stories of unexpected discoveries. A performance, not one-off highs. Mr
recent paper by Alexei Milkov and Wil- Buffett might have hada slice of luck at
liam Navidi of the Colorado School of the outset, but a lifetime of investing
Mines found that goo/o of industry practi- success suggests he has maximised it.
 The Economist October zist 2023 Business 55

� how long it will take the 27 EU members to lndian plutocracy and health care. Alkern Laboratories, a
reach the consensus required to grant the maker of generic drugs, helped elevate 11
commission such powers-if it can be Wealth people onto the list, the most of any com-
reached at all. pany. Asian Paints lifted ten, Tube Invest-
Things get blurrier still when it comes distribution ments of India, which expanded from pro-
to enforcing the rules. In most countries ducing bicycle parts to various other com-
the bureaucratic capacity to police export- ponents, eight, and Pidilite Industries, a
MUMBAI
control regimes is limited. America's BIS, maker of adhesives, seven.
A new survey of the ultra-rich provides
widely considered to be better endowed The demography and geography of In-
a window into a changing economy
than similar agencies in other countries, dian wealth is broadening, too. The 20-

I
has fewer than 600 em ployees and an an- NDIAN PLUTOCRACY can seem set in year-old founder of Zepto, a delivery firm,
nual budget of just over $2oom-a modest stone. The top two spots in the annual makes an appearance, as does, for the first
figure given the outñt's global remit. Its rich list compiled by Hurun, which tracks time, the 94-year-old founder of Precision
Asian and European counterparts must such things, invariably go to the Ambani Wires India, a maker of electrical cabling.
make do wi th far less. and Adani clans. This year is no different. Most of India's rich still hail from Mumbai
The relevant agencies often lack the ex- Mukesh Ambani carne in first, with a for- (328), Delhi (199) and Bangalore (100), In-
pertise to assess exporters' req uests for ali- tune of $98bn. He displaced Gautam Ada- dia's commercial, political and tech capi-
cence to sell products abroad. That re- ni, a rival industrialist and last year's win- tals, respectively. But 21 other cities made
quires an understanding of how a particu- ner, whose riches clocked in at $58bn. Peer the cut this year, bringing the total number
lar piece of equipment could be used. It is lower down the ranking, though, and the of places plutocrats call home to 95.
almost impossible to tell how such equip- story is one of change. And although plenty of rich lndians are
ment will actually be employed once it ar- First, the ranks of India's ultra-wealthy still based abroad, most of the new money
rives in China. This year the BIS set aside a are growing. Hurun's lastest list identifies is at home. Most of it is also the product of
relatively piddling sum of $6m for inspec- 1,319 fortunes of $12om or more (its bench- the real economy rather than of financia!
tions to be conducted abroad-and little if mark for inclusion). rnar is 216 more than engineering. Only one private-equity bar-
any of this is likely to be spent on the Chi- last year. The main sources of affluence are on made the list=Manish l(ejriwal, foun-
nese mainland, where American inspec- not wha t you might consider the tradition- der of Kedaara Capital, and his family is
tors are not exactly welcorned with open al routes to riches, such as industry, fi- worth $36om. The biggest rewards in India
arms. Many of the srs's poorer cousins in nance and information technology. In- still accrue to the builders rather than to
other countries depend wholly on the ex- stead they are consumer goods, materials the moneyrnen. •
porting businesses themselves to deter-
mine the actual end-use of their products,
something the companies cannot know for
-
Crore principals
sure either, India, Hurun rich list*, August 30th 2023
The result is a mishmash of opaque
rules and fitful enforcement actions. Top ten members Wealth by sector, $bn Number on rich list
Manufacturers of sensitive technologies
Rank, name Wealth t, $bn o 100 200 300
are left guessing about what business they
(1) Mukesh Ambani 98.0 305
can and cannot do with Chinese firms.
Four Taiwanese firms=Cica-Huntek 248
(2) Gautam Adani 57.5
Chemical Technology Taiwan, L&I< Engi- 165
(3) Cyrus Poonawalla 33.8
neering, Topeo Scientific and United Inte- 7
(4) Shiv Nadar 27.7
grated Services-recently found thern- lnformation technology 96
selves under investigation by Taiwan's (5) Gopichand Hinduja 21.4 Financials 107
government after reports surfaced that (6) Dilip Shanghvi 19.9 Energy 11
they were involved in building a new net- lndustrials 140

•e
(7) LN Mittal 19.7
work of chip factories in China. The tour Real estate 52
companies ali deny that they have broken (8) Radhakishan Damani 17.4
Consumer staples 84
I
••
any sanctions. (9) Kumar Mangalam Birla 15.2
Capital goods 71
Lack of co-ordination may also explain
(1 O) Niraj Bajaj 14.6 I Communication services 33
why the system is not keeping high tech
out of China as in tended. In South Korea,
SI< Hynix is looking into how sorne of its Wealth by age group, $bn Number on rich list Wealth by state, $bn
older memory chips ended up in the latest
smartphone made by Huawei. SI< Hynix
2 91 552 597 77
denies doing business with the Chinese te-
lecoms giant. The Huawei smartphone in 800
question, the Mate 60 Pro, also sported ad-
600
vanced microprocessors furnished by
SMIC, China's biggest chip manufacturer. 400 ,___:...._ Maharashtra
Both Huawei and SMIC feature on the srs's Gujarat 525
entity list and were thought incapable of 200 126
such chipmaking feats. Export comptrol-
lers in America and its allies are still trying 0.4 o
to work out how exactly the two companies 25 and 26-45 46-65 66 and Unknown
5 1O 50 100
under o ver
pulled them off. This is unlikely to be the
*Wealth above 1,000 erare rupees ($120m) tshared with family
_1-1-1
last China-related surprise they have to Sources: Hurun India¡ The Economist
f- Overseas 169 No entries
contend with. •
56 Business The Economist October zist 2023

Chipmaking highly standardised in order to minimise by America's export controls from buying
the share of chips that turn out faulty. ASML's EUV machines, since they all rely on
Lithography Since ASML has long been the only game in bits and bobs of American origin (see earli-
town for cutting-edge chips, that standar- er article). It has also struggled to develop
les so ns disation means that fabs are being de- lithography machines of its own. The cur-
signed around its machines, which are the rent American restrictions do not, how-
size of a double-decker bus. The fabs that ever, explicitly cover nanoimprint tech-
chipmakers are currently busy putting up nology. That leaves Canon free to sell it to
Canon tries to crack ASML's dominance
around the world will not suddenly switch customers across the Sea of Japan-at least
of circuit-etching tools
to nanoimprint lithography. It may take for the time being and perhaps for longer.

P URVEYORS OF CHIPMAI(ING tools sel-

dom attract attention. Yet many inves-
tors' heads turned on October ijth, when
five years for Canon's tools to be used in
mass production, thinks Gaurav Gupta of
Gartner, a research firm, and only once
It is unclear whether the Japanese firrn's
machines include enough American
know-how to ever fall under America's an-
Canon unveiled a new piece of kit. It is easy they have proved themselves. ti-Chinese strictures. Probably no necks
to see why. The Japanese company, which One place where Canon could make craned more at Canon's announcement
makes optical equipment, claims that its headway more quickly is China. Since 2019 than those of national-security hawks in
"nanoimprint" lithography machine can Chinese companies have been prevented Washington and Beijing. •
etch the very smallest transistors used in
the most advanced microchips. Such feats
have hitherto been the preserve of ASML, a
Dutch manufacturer of lithographic tools.
Canon hopes to eat further into ASML's
business by eventually cranking out two-
nanometre chips.
The possibility of breaking ASML's
stranglehold on the supply chain for cut-
ting-edge chips is intriguing. The firm has
long enjoyed the biggest monopoly in the
concentrated semiconductor industry. The
world's three biggest chip manufactur- l

ers-Intel, Samsung and TSMC-depend

entirely on its extreme-ultraviolet (EUV)
technology to produce the cutting-edge
microprocessors that go into smartphones
and the powerful data-centre servers on
whích the computing cloud lives.
ASML's EUV rigs use high-powered la-
sers to etch electrical blueprints onto cir-
cular silicon discs. Canon's alternative, by
contrast, directly stamps chip designs on Big oil
such wafers using a patterned mould. In
theory, this allows it to make more detailed Spread bets
patterns. And because it involves fewer
steps and avoids the need for expensive la-
sers and supersmooth mirrors, it could be
much cheaper than EUV lithography.
ASML's share price dipped by more than 2o/o
and Canon's rose by nearly as much on the
The energy supermajors are beefing up their trading arms
nanoimprint news.
In practice, Canon has its work cut out. N THE195os the oil market was in the gift ously. Russia's war in Ukraine, geopolitical
Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis, a semicon-
ductor-research firm, points out that na-
I of the "Seven Sisters", These giant West-
ern firms controlled 85% of global crude
tensions between the West and China, and
fitful global efforts to arrest climate change
noimprint lithography is prone to defects reserves, as well as the entire production are all injecting volatility into oil markets
beca use of the precision required to align process, from the well to the pump. They (see chart 1 next page). Gross profits of
wafers and moulds. The technique is also fixed prices and divvied u p markets be- commodity traders, which thrive in uncer-
not yet effective in dealing with complex tween themselves. Trading oil outside of tain times, increased 60% in 2022, to
chip designs, including for processors the clan was virtually impossible. By the $115bn, according to Oliver Wyman, a con-
used in artificial-intelligence models, that 197os that dominance was cracked wide sultancy. Yet this time it is not the upstarts
involve many layers of chemical deposits. open. Arab oil embargoes, nationalisation that have been muscling in. It is the de-
Mr Patel predicts that Canon's tool will be of oil production in the Persian Gulf and scendants of thc Seven Sisters and their
used for making parts of memory chips, the arrival of buccaneering trading houses fellow oil giants, which see trading as an
which have fewer layers, rather than for such as Glencore, Vitol and Trafigura saw ever-bigger part of their future.
advanced "logic" chips, which process in- the Sisters lose their sway. By 1979, the in- The companies do not like to talk about
formation rather than store it. dependent traders were responsible for this part of their business. Their traders'
Even if Canon can overcome all these trading two-fifths of the worlds oil. profits are hidden away in other parts of
technical hurdles, chipmakers may be loth The world is in turmoil again-and not the organisation. Chief executives bat
to replace their EUV kit with its machines. only because the conflict between Israel away prying questions. Opening the books,
Chip fabrication plants (fabs for short) are and Ramas is at risk of escalating danger- they say, risks giving away too much infor- ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 Business 57

� mation to competitors. But conversations

with analysts and industry insiders paint a
-
Trade finance
Gulf's powerful producers away from
America and its allies. All that is creating
picture of large and sophisticated opera- Gross profits from energy trading*, $bn vast arbitrage opportunities for traders.
tions-and ones that are growing, both in 12 Another reason to expect persistent vo-
size and in sophistication. latility is clima te change. A combination of
Shell
In February ExxonMobil, America's 10 increasing temperatures, rising sea levels
mightiest supermajor, which abandoned and extreme weatherwill disrupt supply of
8
large-scale trading two decades ago, an- fossil fuels with greater regularity. In 2021 a
nounced it was giving it another go. The 6 cold sna p in Texas knocked out el ose to
Gulf countries' state-run oil giants are 40°/o of oil production inAmerica for about
game, too: Saudi Arameo, Abu Dhabi Na- 4 two weeks. Around 3oo/o of oil and gas re-
tional Oil Company and QatarEnergy are serves around the world are ata "high rísk"
2
expanding their trading desks in a bid to of similar climate disruption, according to
keep up with the supermajors. But it is o Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy.
Europe's oil giants whose trading ambi- 2019 20 21 22 23 Then there is the energy transition,
tions are the mostvaulting. Source: Bernstein *Semi-annual
which is meant to avert even worse clima te
BP, shel! and TotalEnergies have been extremes. In the long run, a greener energy
silently expanding their trading desks system will in all likelihood be less volatile
since the early zocos, says Jorge Léon of The superrnajors' trading desks are like- than today's fossil-fuel-based one. It will
Rystad Energy, a consultancy. In the first ly to stay busy for a whíle, because the be more distributed and thus less concen-
half of 2023 trading generated a combined world's energy markets look unlikely to trated in the hands of a few producers in
$2obn of gross profit for the three compa- calm down. As Saad Rahim of Trafigura unstable parts of the world. But the path
nies, estimates Bernstein, a research firm. pu ts it, "We are moving away from a world from now to a climate-friendlier future is
Thatwas two-thirds more than in the same of commodity cycles to a world of com- riven with uncertainty.
period in 2019 (see chart 2), and one-fifrh of modity spikes," And such a world is the Sorne governments and activist share-
their total gross earnings, up from one- trader's dream. holders are pressing oil companies, espe-
seventh fouryears ago. OliverWyman esti- One reason for the heightened volatility cially in Europe, to reduce their fossil-fuel
mates that the headcount of traders at the is intensifying geopolitical strife. The con- wagers. Rystad Energy reckons that partly
world's largest private-sector oil ñrrns flict between Israel and the Palestinians is as a result, global investment in oil and gas
swelled by 46°/o between 2016 and 2022. just the latest example. Another is the war production will reach $54obn this year,
Most of that is attributable to Europe's big in Ukraine. When last year Russia stopped down by 35°/o from its peak in 2014. De-
three. Each of these traders also generates pumping its gas west after the EU imposed mand for oil, meanwhile, continues to rise.
one and a half times more profi t than sev- sanctions on it in the wake of its aggres- "That crea tes stress in the system," says Ro-
en years ago. sion, demand for liquefied natural gas land Rechtsteiner of Mcl(insey.
Today BP employs 3,000 traders world- (LNG) rocketed. The European superma-
wide. Shell's traders are also thought to jors' trading arms were among those rush- Future traders
number thousands and TotalEnergies' per- ing to fill the gap, making a fortune in the This presents opportunities for traders,
haps 800. That is almost certainly more process. They raked in a combined $15bn and not just in oil. Mr Rechtsteiner notes
than the (equally coy) independent traders from trading LNG last year, accounting for that heavy investment in renewables with-
such as Trafigura and Vitol, whose head around two-fifths of their trading profits, out a simultaneous increase in transmis-
counts are, respectively, estimated at according to Bernstein. sion capacity also causes bottlenecks. In
around 1,200 and 450 (judging by the dis- This could be just the beginning. A re- Britain, Italy and Spain more thamso-gíga-
closed number of employees who are cent report from Mckinsey, a consultancy, watts' -worth of wind and solar power,
shareholders in the firms). It is probably models a scenario in which regional trade equivalent to 83% of the three countries'
no coincidence that BP's head of trading, blocs for hydrocarbons emerge. Russian total existing renewables capacity, cannot
Caro! Howle, is a frontrunner for the Brit- fuel would flow east to China, India and come online because their grids cannot
ish cornpany's top job, recently vacated by Turkey rather than west to Europe. At the handle it, says BloombergNEF, a research
Bernard Looney. same time, China is trying to prise the firm. Traders cannot build grids, but they
can help ease gridlock by helping channel
-
Crude awakening
resources to their most profitable use.
Europe's three oil supermajors are al-
Brent crude, $ per barrel, 2022 prices ready dealing in electric power and carbon
credits, as well as a lot more gas, which as
US recessions 200
the least grubby of fossil fuels is consi-
lranian Dotcom Covid-19
revolution bubble pandemic
dered essential to the energy transition.
begins Last year they had twice as many traders
150
transacting such things than they did in
Arab oil First Gulf 2016. Ernst Frankl of Oliver Wyman esti-
boycott war mates that gross profits they generated
100
rose from $6bn to $3obn over that period.
Other green commodities may come next.
50 David Knipe, a former head of trading at BP
Global
now at Bain, a consultancy, expects sorne
financia! of the majors to start trading lithium, a
. .
CrlSIS
o metal used in battery-rnaking. If the hydro-
1963 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20 23 gen economy takes off, as many oil giants
Sources: World Bank, Refinitiv Datastream: NBER
hope, that will offer another thing not just
to produce, but also to buy and sell. •
58 Business The Economist October zist 2023

Schumpeter How much is too much?

The soaring pay of America's bosses is again under fue

Amy Borrus of the Council of Institu tional Investors, which repre-
sents pension funds and other asset managers. Ordinary Ameri-
cans, though, are furious. A survey in 2019 by David Larcker and
Brian Tayan of Stanford University found that 86% of them
thought bosses were overpaid. Is it time, then, to rein in CEO pay?
One consideration is what the benchmark should be. caos are
far from the only group rolling in cash, notes Alex Edmans of the
London Business School. Last year LeBron James made $127m
throwing halls in hoops and endorsing shoes. Tom Cruise pocket-
ed $1oom for acting in "Top Gun: Maverick", Such celebrities do
not seem obviously worthier than bosses steering colossal corpo-
rations responsible for many billions of dollars of capital and tens
or even hundreds of thousands of jobs.
And bosses' pay looks like chump change when compared with
the scale of their companies. The total compensation of s&P 500
esos last year was equal to 0.5% of net profit of the index's firms,
and 0.03% of their combined market value. Investors seem to be-
lieve a good boss is worth many times that, On October 12tl1 Dallar
General, an American discount retailer, announced its previous
boss would return to the helm after lacklustre results under his
successor. Its share price jumped by 9°/o the next day. As cornpa-
nies have grown bigger-the average s&P 500 firm last year gener-
''WE'RE FED up with falling behind," declared Sl1awn Fain, the ated more than twice the revenues it did in 1990, after inflation-
boss of America's United Auto Workers (UAW), last month and more global, the CEO's job has also become harder, argues Ste-
after the union began a campaign of intermittent strikes at Ford, ven Kaplan of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
General Motors (GM) and Stellantis, America's "big three" carrnak- Judging by the European experience, paying bosses less is not
ers. A month in, the two sides are still at loggerheads. Jim Farley, obviously a good idea. The earnings gap between American and
Ford's chief executive, has argued that the 36o/o pay rise over tour European bosses is partly the result of less competition for execu-
years demanded by the striking workers would cripple his busi- tives in Europe, which has fewer big firms. It also reflects a more
ness. The UAW has countered that the average pay of the big three's egalitarian attitude to pay that has not translated into better per-
CEOs is 40% higher than it was in 2019, compared with 6°/o for the formance. Europe's firms exhibit lower sales growth, profitability
uniori's members, which is well below inflation. Last year Mr Far- and shareholder returns, and its workers are less productive. All
ley raked in $21m in pay, Carlos Tavares, his counterpart at Stellan- that contributes to the continent's sluggish economic growth,
tis, $25m and Mary Barra of GM, $29m. The average full-time UAW Earlier this year Julia Hoggett, head of the London Stock Ex-
member made less than $60,000. (Exor, the biggest shareholder in change, warned that Britain's companies risked being hamstrung
Stellantis, part-owns The Economist's parent company.) by their inability to attract executive talent. Last year Laxman Na-
America's bosses are certainly well compensated. After lan- rasimhan quadru pled his pay by abandoning the top job at Reckitt
guishing in the zocos, median pay for CEOs of big companies in Benckiser, a London-listed consumer-goods company, to run Star-
the s&P 500 index has climbed by isss overthe past decade, adjust- bucks, an American coffee chain. In Japan, where CEO pay is even
ing for inflation, twice the rise in the median full-time wage in lower than in Europe, companies like Toyota have started beefing
America. The typical s&P 500 boss earned more than $14m last up compensation packages with stock-based incentives.
year, according to figures from Myí.ogro, a data provider. That is
around 250 times as much as the average worker. It is also more Greed is good. Right?
than bosses earn in Britain (where chiefs of FTSE 100 firms took All this sounds like a compelling argument in favour of letting
home just shy of $5m), let alone in France and Germany (where American CEOS off the hook for their rich rewards. In practice,
CEOs are paid still less). Sorne American corporate chieftains rake though, shareholders should watch for two things. For one, the
in many times that. In 2022 Sundar Pichai of Alphabet, a tech titan, American market for CEOS is far from perfectly efficient. Many
received a $218m stock award, following a similar-sized bounty in bosses loom large over their boardrooms, and may cow notionally
2019. In 2021 David Zaslav of Warner Bros Discovery, a media giant, independent remuneration committees. Two in five s&P 500 CEOs
received stock options worth an estimated $203m (subject to hit- also chair their boards. A recent survey of American company di-
ting certain performance hurdles). rectors by rwc, a consultancy, showed that one in two thought ex-
Investors, for their part, do not seem overly bothered. Last year ecutives were overpaid. Any reservations they may harbour, and
only 4 o/o of s&P 500 companies failed to win majority support in express in the comfort of an anonymous survey, dissipate when
(non-binding) "say on pay" votes, according to Meridian, an exec- confronted with a flesh-and-blood chairman.
utive-compensation adviser. As Lucian Bebchuk of Harvard Law A more immediate concern is that paying vast sums to bosses
School explains, America's big institutional investors pay little at- when times are tough for common folk can have unwanted conse-
tention to the market-wide level of compensation, focusing in- quences, if it emboldens employees to make demands that their
stead on what share of a cso's pay is tied to the ñrm's performance, companies cannot afford. This risks happening in Detroit, which
and on how much they earn relative to other bosses. American must compete globally with lower-cost carrnakers. The free mar-
esos' pay is "so stratospheric we have become numb to it", says ket for CEOs, in other words, is also subject to political economy. •
 59

The financial conflict estinian economy still depends on hand-

outs. On the eve of the war, the average Is-
War by other means raeli was 15 times richer than the average
Palestinian. Only a third of West Bankers
have access to a sewage system; sorne 1oo/o
manage without a water supply. West
Bankers have been allowed to work in low-
skilled jobs in Israel, but have been subject
ISTANBUL
to tight restrictions on their movement.
In its fight against Ramas, Israel uses economic weapons as well as military ones
In Gaza, things have been even worse.
N LESS THAN a fortnight, sorne 3,500 Ga- means possible, which requires using eco- Growth in GDP per person in the West Bank
I zans have been killed, 12,000 injured and
more than a million displaced-on whose
nomic as well as military weapons.
Averting a humanitarian catastrophe is
averaged 2.8º/o a year from 2007 to 2022.
The average Gazan became poorer d uring
behalf America and the UN are attempting made ali the more difficult by the miser- the same period, with the local economy
to open a passage into Egypt. Entire neigh- able pre-war state of the Palestinian econ- shrinking by 2.5% ayear. The territory has
bourhoods in the strip have been bombed omy. Israel, Gaza and the West Bank share a operated under a near total blockade from
to dust. Cut off from food, water and med- single market, governed by a deal that the Israel since Hamas took power in 2007. Un-
ica! supplies, the UN warned on October UN brokered in 1994. The idea behind the til recently, it was supplied with electricity
16th that Gaza's 2.3m people were on "the agreement was that Palestinians would by Israel, but received only a third of the
verge of an abyss", Since Israel's strikes be- work in Israel and that Israeli capital would amount it sought. Each of the three wars
gan, war has drained nearly every source of flood into Gaza and the West Bank, where fought between the two sides-in 2008,
economic life from the territory. rich returns were waiting. In reality, Israeli 2014 and 2021-cost Gaza the equivalent of
For the better part of two decades, Gaza restrictions remained in place and the Pal- at least ayear of GDP.
has relied on su pport from international If there is nothing for an economy to
donors for its financia! survival. On Octo- generate, it is not just growth that suffers.
7 Also in this section
ber isth Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's Unemployment is rife. More than half of
prime minister, said that his country 60 Will China escape deflation? the Gazan adult population were living be-
would allow a modest amount of food and lowthe IMF's poverty line in 2021. There are
61 The threat from hidden bad loa ns
medicine across Egypt's border into the few ways to make money. One way used to
territory, which would be the first supplies 62 Thorny questions for Binance be dealing imports and exports through
let in since Hamas launched its brutal at- tunnels under Gaza's southern border, but
63 Buttonwood: Farewell to Dr Copper
rack against Israel on October 7th. Israel's Egypt cleared out most after a bust-up with
allies, including America, are pushing for 64 Free-market economics and the law Hamas in 2014. Another way is to rebuild
more to be admitted. Yet at the same time, what war destroys. One of Gaza's main
65 Freeexchange:Takingon bigtech
Israel wants to suffocate Hamas by any businesses is construction, which grew by��
60 Finance & economics The Economist October zist 2023

-
Bad and worse
business spending. As charities run so
many of the strip's schools and hospitals,
and the PA keeps the lights on, Hamas is
GDP per person, 2015 prices, Ql 2000=100 a ble to spend lavishly elsewhere.
200 It finances its spending with an adroit
tax system. Though Gaza gets no imports
150 from Israel, it does get them from Egypt,
100
from which trade had recen tly increased,
and the West Bank, Ha mas taxes food and
Gaza
i i
50 fuel crossing the Egyptian border; picks up
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2000 05 10 15 20 23 16.5% of the value of products from baby

food to jeans; charges three shekels ($0.75)
per kilo of fish caught by fishermen: and
Unemployment rate, ºlo
50 levies income tax. Altogether economists
Gaza 40 reckon that Hamas may take in somewhere
30 in the region of i.sbn shekels ayear.
West Bank 20 Other sources of finance are already in
nz
10 lsrael's sights. Gaza's various Islamist
o groups receive maybe $1oom ayear from
2002 05 10 15 20 22 Iran, according to America's best guess.
Hamas also receives individual donations
Sou rce: Haver Ana lytics
from the Gulf and the West, sorne of which
are furtively transferred across borders us-
• 2oo/o last year. It will presumably grow by ing cryptocurrencies. Israel and its allies Property woes
more once this round of war ends. have already come down hard on these
Others cobble together incomes from a sources of finance where possible, freezing Still in the mire
range of outside sources. Sorne 70,000 Ga- accounts in Istanbul and London.
zans remain on the payroll of the Palestin- Will aid to Gaza end up strengthening
ian Authority (PA), even though its officials the position of Hamas? In the past, Israel
who run the West Bank were kicked out of has been wary of multilateral organisa-
HONG KONG
Gaza by Hamas in 2007, and none of thern tions working in the strip. Other govern-
The Chinese economy may be growing
actually goes to work. Qatar deposits ments have found that links between char-
faster, but serious problems remain
cash-some siom a month-into the bank ities and Hamas are rare, however. In Gaza,
accounts of thousands more locals. The PA
pays Gaza's electricity bills, which Israel
subtracts from the tax it collects on behalf
few believe rumours that Hamas taxes aid.
So grirn is the situation that "a few bits of
fuel getting lost is worth it", argues the boss
e HIN.AS EMERGENCE from its covid-io
controls was mean t to be the biggest
economic event of the year. Instead, the re-
of the PA in the West Bank. The UN educates of a think-tank in Gaza. opening has turned into one of the biggest
300,000 Gazan children: a network of hos- Israelí polícyrnakers also face dilem- disappointments. In a recent survey by
pitals it runs with charities provides the mas in the West Bank. Just a few thousand Bank of America, fund managers in Asia
territory with basic health care. Gazans work in Israel; in contrast, a quar- expressed their "fatigue and frustration"
ter of the West Bank's labour force works wí th China's weak growth and the lack of a
The strip's assets over the border or in [ewish settlements. concerted government response.
Another organisation on which Gazans de- Israel does allow exports and imports On the face of it, economic data re-
pend is Hamas, whose administrative through the West Bank=the duties on leased on October 18th should cheer them
branch runs the strip's government. Since which make up around two-thirds of the up. The figures showed that China's econ-
it took power, Hamas has expanded the PA's budget. These taxes are collected by Is- omy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter,
public payroll from roughly 20,000 to rael and occasionally held up for months at compared with ayear earlier-faster than
50,000 civil servants. Last year its spend- a time before being transferred. Sorne Is- expected. And its growth compared with
ing contributed o.8o/o to GDP growth, com- raelí officials reportedly want to cut such the previous quarter was stronger still:
pared with 0.3% from all household and payments, either to redirect money to- 5.3% at an annualised rate. The economy ••
wards Gazan reconstruction or in the
-
Opposite of autarky
hopes of stopping payments to Gazan farn-
ilies. Other Israelí officials insist that the
-
Deflated
Palestinian territories, government PA needs more, not less, funding in order to China, G DP price deflator
revenue and spending as ºlo of GDP keep a fragile peace. 0 change on ayear earlier
/o
30 In sorne ways, the choices facing Israelí 9
politicians are exaggerated versions of
25 ones that they have faced in the past. When
Donor aid 6
20 Israel wanted to contain Hamas, it made no
Non-tax sense to help the group collect taxes. Now
Domestic 15 that Israel wants to destroy Hamas, it 3
tax makes no sense in military terms to allow
10
Customs supplies into Gaza. Yet if it restricts the o
revenues*
5 flow of supplies even more harshly, a hu-
o manitarian disasterwill ensue. On October -3
2016 17 18 19 20 21 22 rzth Gaza's health ministry begged for gen- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 •
2009 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Sources: Haver Analytics; IMF *Collected by Israel
erators. Without them, it said, hospitals
Sources: Haver Analytics; The Economíst
were about to shut down. •
 The Economist October zist 2023 Finance & economics 61

� should now have little trouble meeting the Thus fatigue and frustration should not growth target in sight, policymakers may
government's growth target of "around give way to complacency. At the IMF's an- now be tempted to wai t and see how the re-
5°/o" for this year. UBS, a bank, raised its nual meeting, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, covery evolves before pursuing further
forecast for 2023 from 4.8o/o to 5.2%. the fund's chief economist, called for stimulus. In the tace of a hostile America
The source of the growth was also en- "forceful action" from China's government and turbulent geopolitics, it appears keen
couraging. Consumption contributed al- to restructure struggling property develop- to keep its fiscal powder dry.
most 95°/o of it, noted Sheng Laiyun of Chi- ers, contain financia! dangers and rede- Still, it is hard to see how deflation
na's National Bureau of Statistics. There ploy fiscal measures to help households. strengthens China's position. The IMF now
are signs that the country's beleaguered The government has taken sorne steps. thinks that China's prices, as measured by
households may be coming out of their It has allowed a growing number of local its GDP deflator, will fall this year com-
shells. Demand for longer-term loans is governments to issue "refinancing bonds", pared with last. Combined with the yuan's
growing; the saving rate, adjusted for the whích will help clear late payments to sup- weakness, G DP could shrink in do llar
season, tell below 30% of disposable in- pliers and replace the more expensive debt terms. Indeed, China's economy will gain
come for the first time since the pandemic, owed by local-government financing vehi- little ground on America's in the next five
according to Yi Xiong of Deutsche Bank, eles, The authorities seem keen to prevent years, according to the fund (see chart 2).
One reason for this may be improve- any of these vehicles from defaulting. The contrast with the IMF's April fore-
ments in the job market. Urban unemploy- But preserving financia! stability is not cast is stark. In the space of six months, the
ment tell to 5% in September from 5.2°/o in the same as reviving growth. The govern- fund has shorn off more than $15trn, in to-
the previous month and the average work- ment's efforts to stimulate demand have so day's dollars, from China's cumulative GDP
week lengthened. Household debt burdens far been both piecerneal and grudging. Its for the years from 2023 to 2028. Few econo-
have also eased a little. Chinese policymak- fear of doing too mucl1 seems to ou tweigh mies can match China's scale. And that in-
ers have instructed banks to cut the inter- its fear of doing too little. With the official eludes the scale of its disappointments. •
est rate on outstanding mortgages in line
with the lower rates available for new ones.
On October 13tl1 the central bank an- Financial threats
nounced that the interest rate on existing
mortgages, worth zi.ztrn yuan ($3trn), l1ad The hangover worsens
been lowered by 0.73 percentage points,
which should free up over ioobn yuan of
spending power ayear.
But the good news for households was
not matched by good news for houses. The
SHANGHAI
property rnarket remains dangerously
China's banks may be loaded up with hidden bad loans
weak, The amount of residential floor
space sold by property developers in Sep- HEN JINZHOU BANI(, in north-east- it is possible that a large portion of Jin-
tember was 21 % below that sold last year.
Increasingly, China's developers must ac-
W ern China, showed signs of distress
at the start of the year, state media suggest-
zhou's lending book is unrecognised bad
debt. The bank has said almost nothing
tually finish buildings before they can sell ed that a billionaire named Li Hejun might about its condition since earlier this year.
thern. Completed buildings accounted for be to blame. Mr Li, a solar-panel tycoon, If hidden bad debts such as these lurk at
almost a quarter of sales in September, was once China's richest man. His firm was Jinzhou Bank, they may lurk elsewhere,
compared with less than 13% in 2021. known to have tigh t Iinks to the bank. And too. This is worrying, for Chinese finance
The threat of deflation lingers, too. Chi- it was not long after word spread that he is already in a mess. Local governments are
na's annual nominal growth, which in- had been arrested that [inzhou Bank sus- struggling to repay lenders at least 65trn
eludes inflation, was 3.5% in the third pended trading in its shares and told inves- yuan ($9trn) in off-balance-sheet debts.
quarter, lower than the real, inflation-ad- tors it would restructure its operations. Many of the country's big property devel-
justed figure. This suggests that prices of Oddly, the bank's finances look to have opers have already defaulted on offshore
goods and services fell by almost 1.4 %, the been in good shape, The firm's overall bad- bonds and owe trillions of yuan-worth of
second drop in a row (see chart on previous debt level was low in the first half of 2022, unbuilt homes to local residents. China's
page), which makes the currentperiod Chi- the last period for which detailed informa- largest wealth-rnanagement firms have
na's worst deflationary spell since 2009. tion is available. Although one concerning started to default on payments owed to in-
figure sticks out-more than 50% of its vestors. Given that the type of hidden debts
-
Second thoughts
personal-business loans had become non-
performing-this type of loan comprised
possibly on [inzhou's balance-sheet have
so far received little attention, the bank's
China's G DP relative to America's, 0/o just iss of its total. Srnall- and micro-enter- troubles ought to come as a warning.
At market exchange rates prise loans, which make up about half of Problems with loans to the smallest
90 the bank's loan book, appeared normal, firms began with covíd-io. As China shut
April 2023 forecast
with only 3% having gone sour. down, the central bank put a moratorium
80 But was this the whole story? In theory, on the repayment of loans for small- and
there is no meaningful distinction be- micro-enterprises until June 2020 in order
70
tween personal-business loans and small- to halt a wave of defaults. After less than
Actual October 2023 60 and micro-enterprise loans, says Jason three months, officials estimated that
forecast Bedford, a veteran banking analyst. The 7oobn yuan in payments had been de-
50
two types are used in similar ways and ferred. The moratorium has been extended
40 should offer similar risk. In practice, several times since then, with officials cit-
though, there is a crucial difference: small- ing the continued impact of covid. No esti-
2010 15 20 25 28 and micro-enterprise loans remain co- ma te for the total amount of unpaid loans
Source: IMF
vered by a covid-era moratorium allowing exists and banks will not be required to
banks to avoid recognising bad debts. Thus disclose them publicly until next year. ��
62 Finance & economics The Economist October zist 2023

� The moratorium has also coincided wunderkind, and cz was his shadowy foil.
with another state initiative. In order to Keen to avoid being pinned down by na-
stimulate the economy, the central govern- tional laws, his exchange was based "no-
ment has leant on banks to extend loans to where", Binance had long been under in-
the smallest firms, and to do so at the low- vestigation for possible money-laundering
est possible interest rates. Although such and criminal-sanctions violations by
policies have been attempted for years, America's justice department. cz had in-
banks have been resistant, preferring to vested in FTX befare the two turned on
lend to the large, often state-owned com- each other. Then SBF publicly goaded cz
panies with which they have relationships about his legal problems, anda tweet by cz
already. This time the policy has worked, probably helped set off the run on FTX.
however. A crackdown on the banking in- Now, with FTX out of the picture and
dustry, culminating in the arrest of the SBF on trial, charged with various kinds of
president of one of China's largest com- fraud, which he denies, cz looks a lot like
mercial banks last year, has made bosses the last man standing in crypto. Binance
more willing to follow official edicts. utterly dominates crypto trading (see
As a result, at the beginning of the year chart). A whopping 40-50% of it by volume
about 28o/o of all loans in China had been takes place on the platform. The big ques-
given to small- and micro-enterprises, up tion, which cz discussed in an interview
from 24 % at the end of 2019. Many of these with The Economist in Bahrain on October
loans represent simply the renewal of old- nth, is how Binance will now evolve.
er, unpaid debts. It is well known that Por as long as crypto exchanges have ex-
small firms struggled during the pandem- isted, financial laws have been ill-suited to
ic. Despite this, there has hardly been an Crypto's future them. Given the nature of the assets that
uptick in non-performing loans, notes Ali- are traded, they are in effect hybrids of ex-
cia Garcia Herrero of Natixis, a bank. Rivals crushed changes, brokers and settlement firms. If
Another result has been what sorne crypto exchanges were largely unregulated
view as a catastrophic mispricing of assets. that was at least partly because few laws
Small firms are usually judged to pose the had been wri tten to govern thern.
greatest risks, but loans to small- and mi- But, in the wake of FTX's collapse, the
ZALLAQ
cro-enterprises have nevertheless been situation is starting to change. Legislators
After rrx's implosion, will Binance
provided at rock-bottorn interest rates. and regulators around the world are rush-
come over to the light side?
Banks have offered them at an average of ing to pen new laws or crack down on the
4 % annual interest, down from 6% or so in ''THE LUI<E SI<YWALI<ER and the Darth ind ustry. This l1as two big implications for
2019. To make matters worse, a recent Vader of crypto." That is how Michael exchanges. First, regulators want to make
surge in long-term deposits, which are re- Lewis, author of "Going Infinite", a recent sure that they are not mishandling or im-
munerated at higher rates, means banks' book about the rise and fall of Sam Bank- properly using customer funds, as FTX did.
margins have been sq ueezed even tigh ter. man-Fried, founder of FTX, a now-bank- Second, they want to ensure that exchang-
Only a few lenders have hinted at the rupt crypto exchange, is supposed to have es are not facilitating financia! crimes.
amount of loans they have deferred. Min- described the intense rivalry between his cz insists that customers can trust his
sheng Bank, one of China's largest, said in subject and Changpeng Zhao (pictured), exchange. "There are so many ways" Bi-
its mid-term report last year that it had the boss of Binance, a rival firm. nance is structured differently to FTX, he
provided 212bn yuan in renewed loans and Until Mr Bankman-Fried's exchange says. rnc firm has met heavy redemption
deferred payments in the previous six collapsed with an $8bn hole in its balance- requests from clients, including in choppy
months, equivalent to 9º/0 or so of its entire sheet, the analogy seemed apt. The two rnarkets. He points out that the Securities
corporate loan book. Since then, it l1as de- men controlled the two largest crypto ex- and Exchange Commission (ssc), Ameri-
clined to make similar disclosures. The changes in the world. Both were known by ca's financia! regulator, spent a long time
central bank is providing funds to banks, acronyms: "sBF" and "cz". Young, talented investigating Binance for this kind of mis-
which can be used to support specific parts and seemingly in favour of playing nice cond uct. The regulator could provide "zero
of the economy. In a recent report it said with regulators, SBF was something of a evidence" that Binance was commingling
that it had handed out z.ztrn yuan in loans user funds, says cz, "which actually helps
for small firms in the first half of this year.
Any loan moratorium comes with a
-
CZ-peasy
us to prove that we don't do it." Other com-
plaints by the SEC, including that the com-
gamble: that a period of forgiveness will al- Eight biggest centralised crypto exchanges pany issued securities without a licence,
low struggling companies to get back on by trading volume, June 2023, $bn are still to be heard in court.
their feet after a shock. The initial decision o 50 100 150 200 250 Yet it is the second requirement that
may have saved tens of thousands of firms might turn out to be trickier for Binance. In
Binan ce
and even a few banks from going under. December Reuters, a news service, report-
N ow the fate of the pile of debt-however Upbit ed that prosecutors at America's justice de-
big it may be-depends on China's eco- OKX partment were split on whether or not to
nomic fortunes over the coming months. Coinbase charge the firm with money-laundering or
Although the purchasing-managers' index sanctions violations. According to Bloom-
Bybit
for manufacturers shows that the outlook berg, another news service, Binance with-
for large companies has improved slightly, Kucoin drew its application to become a licensed
the one for small and medium-sized com- Bitget exchange in Singapore in 2021, where it
panies has continued to contraer. The eco- MEXC was based at the time, in part owing to its
nomic hangover from the covid era has lin- Sou rce: Coi nGecko
inability to comply with strict anti-money
gered. It could now be about to intensify. • laundering rules. The SEC quotes evidence ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 Finance & economics 63

� from a former employee, who admitted zen "the small number of accounts" solic- in addition to such policies, a full licence
that the company thought it was an "unli- i ting donations in support of Hamas, to means that authorities look at "your wallet
censed securities exchange" and "did not comply with international sanctions laws. infrastructure, your security, your custom-
want to be regulated, ever" The test for the firm now will be in er support policies, your refund policy.
cz dismisses this as "priva te chat by an Europe. America is cracking down on cryp- They look at your whole business."
ex-employee", and adds it "was not the to, and is unlikely to pass new laws soon. A crypto exchange can no longer argue
right thing by far". He notes that Binance is By contrast, European legislators have that it cannot comply with national rules
"the most licensed crypto firm in the written a "Markets in Crypto-Assets" or because they do not exist. Failing to meet
world", with permission to operate in 18 "MicA" frarnework, which entered into Europe's standards would revea! that Bi-
countries across Asia, Europe and the Mid- force in June. Exchanges can keep operat- nance does notwant, or is unable, to follow
dle East (its American arm operares in 44 ing under existing licences until 2026, un- even clear laws. In "Star Wars", Yoda warns
states). Binance now appears to be playing less refused under MiCA, which will re- Luke Skywalker that it is easier to amass or
nice with various authorities. A spokesper- quire strong policies against money-laun- wield power by turning to the Dark Side. It
son confirms that in recent days it has fro- dering and terrorist financing. cz says that, is harder to operate in the light. •

The red metal no longer tells investors much about the global economy

D OCTORS ARE famously reluctant to

hang up their stethoscopes. But a
time comes in the career of every medie
solar-energy capacitythis year, according
to Goldman Sachs, a bank, almost double
the amount it installed last year. And
their copper-light predecessors. In
Europe sales of new petrol-powered cars
will be banned from 2035.
when their skills fade, and a gentle push methods for storing energy require the The squeeze on su pplies will there-
is the best thing for them-and their metal, too. Pumped-storage hydropower is fore be historie, meaning that sky-high
patients. The same applies for the meta- one example. This involves moving water copper prices will no longer be indicative
phorical physicians of the financia! from one reservoir to another, either to of optimism on the part of industrial
world, whose ability to diagnose the hoard excess energy from wind and solar machinery-rnakers, construction firms,
market's health changes over time. Now power orto release it. China airead y l1as electronics manufacturers and the like.
the end may be nigh for the most illustri- 30% of the world's hydropower-storage Instead, rising demand for copper will
ous of ali such physicians: Dr Copper. capacity, at 50GW. Another 89GW of capac- increasingly reflecta desire among poli-
Copper, a metal crucial to the con- ity is being built, which will require vast ticians for more environmentally friend-
struction of ali manner of fi ttings, pipes amounts of copper. ly energy, and sometimes also a reduced
and wires, has earned its níckname on Other countries are also spending big dependence on imports.
Wall Street owing to its role as a bell- on the green transition, and putting in In normal times, building an electri-
wether for the health of global industry. place legislation that will increase appe- cal network from scratch would at least
A surge in copper prices is taken asan tite for the metal. s&P Global, a financial- be a signal of greater economic activity to
early sign of an economic upswing; a big data firm, suggests that demand forre- come. However, the energy transition is
drop is a portent of recession, or at the fined copper will almost double by 2035, intended to replace existing activity,
very least a manufacturing downturn. to 49m tonnes. Batteries, energy transmis- rather than add to it. In the case of energy
So what is going on at the moment? sion, solar cells, transport-all need the infrastructure, China's new solar in-
Manufacturing looks peaky. Global in- metal. An electric car contains over 50 vestment this year can generate 150
dustrial output is up by just 0.5°/o year on kilograms of the stuff, more than twice the gigawatt-hours of energy when working
year, well below the average of 2.6o/o over amount used in a conventional vehicle. at full pelt, which is equivalent to almost
the past two decades, and the rich world Across the world new rules, in tended to 90,000 barreis of oil per hour. That is
is in an industrial recession. A wobble of reduce emissions, will steer consumers energy which China now does not need
a similar scale in 2015 sent copper prices towards electric vehicles and away from to purchase from overseas prod ucers.
plunging by about a quarter. Yet so far The result may well be good for the plan-
this year they are down by only 6%. et, but it will not have much effect on
Futures maturing in 2025 are flat, and aggregate economic activity.
those maturing in 2026 are upa bit. With so much of the growth in de-
The breakdown in the usual rules of mand for copper locked in, and proceed-
thumb is most stríking in China, which ing in large part according to legal diktat,
consumes over half of the world's annual the metal's price will over time say less
copper su pply. Its strícken housing and less about the state of the global
market might have led you to think the economy, and more and more about the
metal was doomed. After ali, investment state of the energy transition. Copper
in property, once a kcy driver of copper prices will still be worth watching, then,
demand, is down by 9% year on year. albeit for different reasons. Investors
Curiously, though, Chinese demand for wanting a hint about the state of the
the metal is up by around 10% this year. global economy will be replaced by
The explanation for this lies in the policyrnakers wanting a sense of how
radical shifts that are under way in the their green policies are faring. Dr Cop-
energy system. China will install around per's retirement may be asad moment,
150 gigawatts (GW) of copper-intensive but it is not the end of the story.
64 Finance & economics The Economist October zist 2023

Political economy de-Silanes, used data from more than 100

countries to tease out the impact of legal
Not so civil anymore origins on the regulation of startups, the
stringency of labour protections and the
efficiency of contract enforcement. "What
we found is that regulation was consistent-
ly less onerous and contract enforcement
consistently more efficient in common-
law jurisdictions," says Mr Shleifer. The
How free-market economics has reshaped legal systems around the world
difference was sharpest in the barriers fac-
HE LEGAL system that operates in the foundation for an economy than central ing entrepreneurs. The number of forms to
T United Arab Emirates (UAE)-lil<e that
in many countries across the Gulf-is a
planning. A decentralised judiciary has ac-
cess to "local knowledge't=-the subtleties
fill out and business days needed to pro-
cess an application, and the cost of admin-
blend of French civil and Islamic Sharia and idiosyncrasies of actual legal cases- istrative fees, were all higher under civil-
law. Bu t this summer Dubai announced that a centralised legislature does not. This law jurisdictions. In 2001 Paul Mahoney of
that it was exploring the introduction of is analogous to the way in which the butch- the University of Virginia analysed data
English common law to 26 free-trade er, the brewer and the baker are better from across the world and found that, in
zones. These are jurisdictions that are ex- placed to know what goods to produce, in the three decades to 1992, GDP per person
empt from local taxes and customs duties, what quantities and at what market price had grown 0.7 percentage points a year
and have their own independent legal sys- than a collection of well-meaning bureau- slower in civil-law countries than in their
tems and courts. The region is increasingly crats. A legal system based on judicial pre- common-law counterparts.
dotted by such common-law islands, re- cedent allows judges to adapt the body of These findings were influential, partic-
flecting the belief that the Anglosphere's law to real-world circumstances. ularly at multilateral institutions. The
legal tradition is better for business. World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index
Such an idea can be traced back to Frie- Common sense was shaped by the legal-origins theory, In-
drich Hayek. Fifty years ago this month, The arguments pu t forward by Hayek deed, Mr Djankov jointly founded and ran
the Nobel-prize-winning economist and mostly concerned the law's ability to pro- the initiative from 2003. In the decade and
philosopher published the first volume of tect individual liberty, but they apply to its a half to 2020, more than 400 studies using
his magnum opus, "Law, Legislation and ability to promote economic growth, too. data from the index were published. Lead-
Liberty". In it, he argued that the common- Twenty-five years ago, in a Iandrnark study ers including Prance's Emmanuel Macron,
law approach is more amenable to freedom in the Journal of Political Economy, Andrei Germany's Angela Merkel and [apan's Abe
than its civil-law counterpart. La ter, in the Shleifer, Rafael La Porta and Florencia Lo- Shinzo made rising up the rankings a goal.
199os, Hayek's ideas inspired the "legal- pez-de-Silanes, then at Harvard University, The resultwas a wave of reform in civil-law
origins theory", which made both an em- as well as Robert Vishny of the University countries, which tended to rank lower. As
pirical and theoretical case that common of Chicago, used data from 49 countries to Mr Djankov notes, there was "a dramatic
law is better for the economy. The theory show that investors' rights are better pro- in ternational convergence in rules and
has been as influential as it has been con- tected in common-law countries. The pa- regulation to the common-law standard".
troversial, leading to sweeping reforms in per gave credence to Hayek's ideas and set Has this produced a surge in economic
civil-law countries around the world. off a flurry of research into the relationship growth? Perhaps not. More recent studies
The common-law tradition emerged in between legal origins and the economy. have splashed cold water on the legal-ori-
England. Under its strictures, the judiciary In three subsequent papers, Simeon gins theory, says Holger Spamann of Har-
is bound by precedent: principles estab- Djankov, a World Bank economist, working vard University. Ones that control for a
lished by judges in previous cases are bind- with Messrs Shleifer, La Porta and Lopez- wider array of confounding factors have
ing for future ones. This establishes case found that a country's legal tradition does
law on an equal footing with legislation. In have an effect on its economic prospects,
contrast, the civil-law tradition traces back but one that is not nearly as strong as the
to the Code Napoléon, a legal system that original studies implied. Moreover, sorne
was setup in France under Napoleon Bona- economists argue that legal traditions act
parte, which restricted both the indepen- as a proxy, indirectly capturing the impact
dence and the discretion of the judiciary, of entirely different inheritances, such as
subordinating it to the legislature. those relating to colonial legacies or cul-
England's approach was transplanted tural attitudes. Under this reading, moving
across the globe by the British empire and from a civil-law approach to a common-
underpins the legal systems of 80 or so law one is unlikely to be worth the signifi-
countries, including America. The Code cant hassle for places like Dubai.
Napoléon was transplanted across Europe Yet such a switch may nevertheless
by French occupations during the Napole- have been worth it in an earlier era, albeit
onic Wars and was introduced around the for the wrong reasons. Before it was dis-
world by the French empire. China, Japan, continued in 2021, when World Bank staff
South Korea and Taiwan all based their were alleged to have fiddled data partly in
modern legal systems on Germany's ap- response to pressure from China, the Ease
proach, which is also based on civil law. In of Doing Business Index made civil-law
total, civil-law traditions underpin the le- countries seem like a less attractive desti-
gal systems of abou t 150 countries today, nation for foreign investors. For a time,
including around 30 mixed systems. then, the legal-origins theory may have be-
Hayek argued that common law is a bet- come self-fulfilling-leading to faster eco-
ter basis for a legal system than civil law for nomic growth simply because it was sup-
similar reasons that markets are a better A I ittle less French posed to lead to faster economic growth. •
 The Economist October zist 2023 Finance & economics 65

Free exchange Internet monopoly

nant search engine has a larger expected ad revenue from an extra

user. The twist is that if a smaller competitor happened to grow, it
would be willing to pay more for additional users, thus bidding up
how much Google would have to pay-and explaining why Google
may be willing to pay large sums to prevent rivals from gaining a
foothold. Yet it is easier to use a different search engine on an
iPhone than it was to download a new browser on Windows. And
Microsoft's dominance in operating systems seems to have been
greater than Google's is in search. So the case is not airtight.
The case againstAmazon is stronger. Luigi Zingales of the Uni-
versity of Chicago thinks that if the alleged facts are found to hold,
the FTC should win. Sellers complain that Amazon penalises them
for offering cheaper prices on other platforms by downranking
products or removing thern from the "Buy Box", which allows in-
stant purchases. Anti trust scholars call practices that force sellers
to behave similarly across platforms "rnost-favoured-nation"
(MFN) treatment, and they have come under growing scrutiny. In
the past Amazon has had explicit MFN contracts with sellers.
The problern, according to the FTC, is that Amazon has raised
the cost of doing business on its platform. It charges sellers afee
for selling, one for using its logistics services and more for adver-
tising. Sellers say that it is next to impossible to qualify for the Buy
NTI-MONOPOLY CASES have been known to reshape corporate Box without paying for logistics, and that buying ads has become a
A America. In 1984 AT&T's telephone network was found to have
excluded competing firms. The company was controversially bro-
must because search results are increasingly cluttered with them.
Although the exact figures are redacted, regulators allege that Am-
ken up in a move that ultimately led to a boom in innovation azon now collects a larger share of sales on its rnarketplace as fees
among its rivals. Meanwhile, a case against Microsoft in 1998 may than it did a decade ago. In a competitive market, Amazon's cost
have kept the <loor open for Google's subsequent rise. Microsoft hikes and restrictions on pricing more cheaply elsewhere would
had bundled together its Internet Explorer browser with its Win- cause sellers to leave the platform. And in fact, sorne large retail-
dows operating system, and made other browsers more difficult to ers, like Nike, have done so. But Amazon's market share in e-com-
install. Sorne business historians think the case, by stopping this merce has grown (it currently stands at 40-50% in America), sug-
practice, made life easier for new browsers. It may also have dis- gesting most sellers feel that the platforrn is too important to qui t.
tracted Microsoft from developing its own search engine. Amazon denies all this. As with Google, there is a chance that
Today, two big cases could redefine the limits of monopolies in the case becomes a debate about how dominant the firm really is
the internet age. On September 12tl1 America's Department of Jus- (Amazon argues that it is dwarfed by the multitude of brick-and-
tice (DoJ) began its courtbattle against Google overthe firrn's deals mortar stores). American retail is efficient and broadly consumer-
to obtain default status on phones and browsers. On September friendly=hardly the sign of an industry in need of repair. Amazon
26tl1 the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), chaired by Lina Khan, also says that if a seller can offer a lower price on another platform,
sued Amazon for allegedly penalising third-party sellers that of- it should do so on its site, too. One can imagine a seller thinking
fered lower prices on other si tes, among other harmful practices. that Amazon Prime customers are rich and price insensitive, and
In both cases, the government thinks the tech giants are so domi- therefore charging more on Amazon than other platforms.
nant that their attempts to preserve market power are suspect.
This raises a question: what counts as anticompetitive? Ready for a remedy
Historically, practices that might be ignored for a startup have But if that is the case, Amazon has plenty of options available, says
not been tolerated in a dominant firm. J ohn Rockefeller's Standard Piona Scott Morton, formerly of the DOJ. Imagine, for example,
Oíl was broken up in 1911, in part for striking deals with railroads that Amazon thinks that the seller of a particular ítem is charging
that made it impossible for other oil firms to compete. Antitrust too much. It is free to prioritise other sellers of that ítem in its
historians still debate the extent to which these deals were abu- search results. If it cannot find any on its platform, it can recruit
sive-after all, Standard Oil benefited from economies of scale and one from outside. If it still cannot find one, then perhaps Amazon
bulk orders commonly receive discounts. But its size and bargain- is simply an expensive platform on which to do business.
ing power led to scrutiny. Befare the firm's break-up, it had cor- In this final case, a possible solution is a so-called behavioural
nered 9oo/o of oíl refineries. Microsoft's bundling was found to be remedy, in which Amazon is made to stop penalising sellers that
problematic because it had over 90% of the market for operating offer lower prices elsewhere. In Europe, where Amazon has also
systems on personal compu ters. In both cases, the courts believed faced scrutiny, the company has made severa! concessions, in-
that dominant firms had made life too difficult for newcomers. cluding treating ali sellers the same when granting access to the
Today's cases have echoes of those past. Start with Google. It much sought-after Buy Box. Ms Khan of the FTC has said she <loes
pays more than siobn to Apple and other companies to be the de- not like remedies that only target the behaviour of cornpanies,
fault search engine on their platforms. The DOJ argues this creates since they are at best short-terrn fixes when set against more dras-
a barrier to entry for competitors. Beca use having lots of data lets a tic measures, like breaking them up. Sometimes, however, noth-
search engine show users more tailored advertisements, a domi- ing more is needed than a slap on the wrist. •
 • •
•
•
Since its beginning in 1999, PNM, or PT Permodalan Nasional Madani, has strived to serve lndonesia's population by utilising their
specialised skills and services for the greater good. The local state-owned financia! institution provides lending programmes, business
coaching, and business support to underprivileged entrepreneurs who run micro, small and medium enterprises. Today, PNM is the largest
micro-lending firm in the world and still focuses on providing financia! and intellectual support to small businesses. Their most successful
programmes target specific demographics, such as female business owners, and have inaugurated an invigorated era of women-led
entrepreneu rs far and wide throughout Indonesia.
In the mid-1990s, Indonesia was going through a financia! crisis
that shook the country's economy. When compared to the US Dallar,
the weakened lndonesian Rupiah led to skv-high prices of essential
commodities and widespread bankruptcy. The lndonesian gov-
ernment identified that one of the critica! issues concerning the
country's socioeconomic status was extreme poverty, and helping to
create an ecosystem of micro, small and medium enterprises was
believed to be the answer to help the underprivileged. PNM was
created in this context to support lndonesian entrepreneurs by
offering economic and intellectual tools. The lending firm has grown
and adapted throughout the years to engage in extensive social,
political, and economic issues to become a solution to the poverty
problem and to lead Indonesia towards a betterfuture.
PNM has successfully implemented a world-class financia!
inclusion programme for over 14 million lndonesians spread over
17,000 islands. Their success could be analysed from various angles,
but ultimately it comes down to dissecting their unique operations
and innovative strategies. The financia! institute has worked tire-
lessly to expand its operational reach to provide access to financia!
services for the publ ic to foster sustainable economic empowerment Indonesia is an archipelago nation, presenting particular
and deliver tangible benefits for enhancing the business capacity of geographical challenges when attempting to reach the most remote
its customers and, as a result, the lndonesian economy. Alongside areas and potential customers. By thoughtfully placing PNM offrces
Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Pegadaian, PNM has become a solution around the country, the company has the potential to play a crucial
for accessing financia! services and providing digital literacy, such role in transformingthe social environments where they are located.
as using e-commerce and social media through various business In lndonesian local cultures, word of mouth is the best and most
training programs. reliable way to spread the news about the next best thing. PNM
AII of PNM's initiatives have resulted from extensive in-house understood that to expand their business, they would need to be on
research and development efforts. Through extensive analysation, the ground in these local markets. The company placed Account
PNM studied pre-existing ministerial demographic informa- Officers in strategic areas and took a traditional route when working
tion and noticed that with or attracting new clients by partaking in door-to-door visits or
female customers engaging in communityevents.
NUMBER OF CUSTOMER PNM MEKAAR
Vi 11 2016- 2023 and female-run busi- PNM's goal is to continue to assist clients through microlending
, ,6� nesses were some- and education via financia! literacy and other related methods of
13,
times left out of the empowerment to increase the quantity and quality of income
11 financia! system and generation. The institution is firmly committed to helping the gov-
that there were no ernment in various connected programmes to alleviate extreme
7,
specific policies or poverty, widespread literacy that support the customers' business
,, programmes to in-
c lude them. The
and other programmes initiatives such as access to clean water and
sanitation to enhance customers welfare. As of May 2023, PNM has
2.3
enormous potential provided services to micro, small and medium enterprises in Indo-
º· for women entre- nesia through 4,539 service offices in 35 out of 38 provinces and 431
2016 2017 201 2019 2020 20ZI 2022 ZOZJ """' preneurs in Indone- cities, and with their word-of-rnouth community and innovative
sia was facing chal- programmes, they'II keep growinguntil they've reached their goals.
lenges due to traditional cultural oversights. Thanks to PNM, the
Mekaar programme was finally created in 2015 to clase the gender
gap. The Mekaar programme provides services for underprivileged
female micro and small business owners, whether they begin from Find out more at pnm.co.id
scratch or are looking to build on their already established
enterprise.
With regards to the strategy, PNM decided to play an active role
within their local communities by participating in activities address-
ing three crucial pillars: reducing extreme poverty even in remate
1

a reas, local socioeconomic growth, and building women's capacity in Permodalan Nasional Madani
leadership roles.
 67

Al archaeology by side. For classicists, this is heady stuff.

The villa in question is thought to have be-
Unrolled at last longed to Lucius Calpurnius Piso, the fa-
ther-in-law of Julius Caesar. The ability to
read its well-stocked library could signifi-
cantly expand the number of texts that
have survived from antiquity. Already
there is excited speculation about forgot-
ten plays, new works of philosophy=or
Artificial intelligence could help unearth a trove of lost classical texts
even lost Homeric poems.
HE OBJECT known as P.Herc.Paris.3 res- Luke Farritor, a computer-science student Efforts to read the scrolls began in the
T embles a dark grey lump of charcoal,
about the size and shape of a banana. That
at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln,
earning him a $40,000 prize. Mr Farritor
175os, when the villa was rediscovered. At-
tempts to unpick them with knives caused
explains i ts nickname: Banana Boy. It is in built on work by Casey Handmer, a former thern to disintegrate. Recognising their
fact a papyrus scroll, found in the ruins of a NASA physicist, whose examination of x- fragility, Antonio Piaggio, a conservator
villa in the Roman town of Herculaneum, ray images of Banana Boy's charred layers from the Vatican, built amachine in 1754 to
in Campania. Along with hundreds of identified a characteristic "crackle pattern" unroll thern slowly, using weíghts on
other scrolls in the villa's library, itwas car- indicating the presence of ink, strings. Even then, the unrolled scrolls fell
bonised when scorching gases engulfed to pieces. And the resulting fragments
the town during the same eruption of Scroll up were almost impossible toread: charcoal-
Mount Vesuvius, in 79AD, that also buried The same word was later found by Youssef based ink is hard to see against the shiny
the nearby town of Pompeii. Nader, a robotics student at the Free Uni- black of charred papyrus. But the few char-
Although the scrolls survived, their versity of Berlin. (Dr Handmer and Mr Na- acters that could be read revealed sorne
charring means that unrolling them is al- der both received $10,000 prizes.) Mr Na- scrolls to be philosophical works written
most impossible. N ow, nearly 2,000 years der l1as since produced an image from the in ancient Greek.
later, words from inside Banana Boy have scroll showíng four columns of text, side A quarter of a millennium later, in 1999,
been revealed for the first time, after vol- scientists from Brigham Young University
unteers competing in a prize challenge illuminated sorne of those fragments with
used x-rays and artificial intelligence to do ­­¿ Also in this section infrared light. That created a strong con-
the unrolling virtually. trast between papyrus and ink, making the
69 Spelunking and the climate
The first word to be found, announced writing more legible. Multi-spectral imag-
on October 12tl1, was "porphyras", which 69 The return ofthe bedbug ing in 2008, combining many wavelengths
means "purple" in ancient Greel< (see pie- of light, was even better, revealing previ-
70 Why a coin toss is not fair
ture on next page). It was uncovered by ously unreadable words. Many fragments ��
68 Science & technology The Economist October zist 2023

� turned out to belong to texts wri tten by a soon increased that to over sim. To get the ons the spur of competition means the
Greel< philosopher called Philodemus of ball rolling, an initial challenge was posted equivalent of ten years' worth of research
Gadara. Until then, they had been known on Kaggle, a website that hosts data-sci- has been done in the past three months.
only from mentions in other works. (Cíce- ence contests, to improve the ink-detec- An active community of volunteers is
ro, though, was a fan of his poetry.) tion model developed by Dr Parsons. now applying the new tools to the two
Around 500 scrolls remain unopened. More than 1,200 teams entered. Many scanned scrolls. Mr Friedman thinks there
Given the damage it does, physical unroll- competed in subsequent challenges to im- is a 75°/o chance that someone will claim
ing is no longer attempted. Instead the fo- prove the tools for ink detection and "seg- the grand prize of $700,000, for identify-
cus has shifted towards finding ways to un- mentation", as the process of transforming ing four separate passages of at least 140
wrap them virtually, by using 30 scans of the 30 scans into 20 images of the scroll's characters, by the end of the year. "It's a
the rolled-up scrolls to produce a series of surface is known. Scru tinising segmented race now," he says. "We will be reading en-
legible 20 images. The pioneer of this ap- images from Banana Boy, Dr Handmer real- tire books next year."
proach is W. Brent Seales, a computer sci- ised that the crackle pattern signified the Being able toread Banana Boy would in-
entist at the University of Kentucky, In presence of ink. Mr Farritor used this find- deed just be the beginning. Only a small
2009 he arranged for Banana Boy, andan- ing to fine-tune a machine-learning model fraction of Greek and Roman literature has
other scroll known as Fat Bastard, to be to find more crackles, then used those survived into modern times. Bu t if the
scanned in a computerised tomography crackles to further optimise his model, un- hundreds of other scrolls recovered from
( CT) x-ray machine, of the sort usually used til eventually it revealed legible words. the villa could be scanned and read using
for medica! scans. This prod uced detailed Mr Nader used a different approach, the same tools, i t would drama tically ex-
images of their interna! structures for the starting with "unsupervised pretraining" pand the number of texts from antiquity.
first time. But the ink within the scrolls on the segmented images, asking a mach- Dr Seales says he hopes the Herculaneum
could not be made out. ine-learning system to find whatever pat- scrolls will contain "a completely new, pre-
In 2015 Dr Seales analysed a different terns it could, with no externa! hints. He viously unknown text" Mr Friedman is
carbonised scroll found in 1970 at En-Gedi, tweaked the resulting model using the hoping for one of the lost Homeric epic po-
near the Dead Sea in Israel. It had been winning entries from the Kaggle ink-de- ems in particular.
written using a metal-rich ink, which tection challenge. After seeing Mr Farri- Even more important, ali this might in
stood out strongly from the papyrus in x- tor's early results, he applied this model to turn revive interest in excavating the villa
ray images. (The text turned out to be the the same segment of Banana Boy, and more fully, says Mr Friedman. The existing
Book of Leviticus.) This confirmed that, in found what appeared to be sorne letters. He scrolls were recovered from a single corner
the right circumstances, digitally unroll- then iterated, repeatedly refining his mod- of what scholars believe is a much larger li-
ing a carbonised scroll and reading the el using the found letters. Slowly but surely brary spread across severa! floors. If so, it
contents could indeed be done. its ability to find more letters increased. All might contain thousands of scrolls in
The next step was to combine the exist- the results were assessed by papyrologists Greel< and Latín.
ing approaches into a new one. In 2019 Dr befare the prizes were awarded. One reason that classical texts are so
Seales arranged for Banana Boy, Fat Bastard scarce is that the papyrus upon which they
and four fragments of other scrolls to be Multae manos onus levius reddunt were written does not survive well in
scanned at high resolution using the Dia- No less important than the technology is Europe's temperate, rainy climate. So it is a
mond Light Source in Britain, a particle ac- the way the effort has been organised. It is, delicious irony, notes Dr Seales, that the
celerator that can produce much more po- in effect, the application of the open- carbonisation of the scrolls, which rnakes
werful x-ray light than a CT scanner. He source software-development method, Mr thern so difficult toread, is also what pre-
then paired infrared images of the frag- Friedrnan's area of expertise, to an archae- served thern for posterity-and that frag-
ments, in which the ink can be readily ological puzzle. "It's a unique collaboration ments of scrolls that disintegrated when
seen, with x-ray scans of the same frag- between tech founders and academics to they were unrolled physically would even-
ments in which it cannot. bring the past into the present using the tually provide the key to unrolling the rest
Earlier this year Stephen Parsons, a tools of the future," l1e says. Dr Seales reck- of them virtually. •
graduate student working with Dr Seales,
fed the two sets of images into a machine-
learning model, which used the infrared
scans to teach i tself how to recognise the
faint signs of ink in the x-ray ones. By ap-
plying the resulting model to x-ray images
from the rolled-up scrolls it would be pos-
sible to reveal their contents. At this point,
deciphering the scrolls had, in theory, been
reduced to a very complex software pro-
blem. But that software still needed to be
improved and scaled up.
Enter Nat Friedman, a technology exec-
utive and investor with an interest in an-
cient Rome. Mr Friedman offered to help
fund Dr Seales's work. Overa whisky, they
decided that the best way to accelerate
things was to organise a contest, with priz-
es handed out for completing various
tasks. Mr Friedman and Daniel Gross, an-
other entrepreneur, launched the Vesuvius
Challenge in March, with a prize fund of
$250,000. Other tech-industry donors Purple prose
 The Economist October zist 2023 Science & technology 69

Spelunking and the climate

Theweather
underground
What a Serbian cave can tell you about
the weather 2,500 years ago

I
F YOU LIVE in northern Europe or Nortl1
America, your weather depends partly
on what the northern polar jet stream is up
to.Jet streams are powerful and persistent
winds that snake around the Earth from
west to east, severa! miles above the sur-
face. The meanderings of the northern po-
lar jet stream can bring cold air down from
the Arctic over the American Midwest, or
send waves of Atlan tic storms crashing
into Ireland or Scandinavia.
As with most sorts of weather, scien-
tists suspect that the flow of the jet streams
is being affected by climate change. Data A record, if you know how to look
from the past century and a half suggest
that the northern jet stream has become ment's eigh t pro to ns are joined by ten neu- northern Canada almost as far as the west-
stronger over that time. But a century is not tro ns instead of the usual eight. Water ern coast of Ireland. It is thought to be
all that long in climatic terms, and it is not from the Atlantic has less. By examining caused by the melting of Greenland's ice
entirely clear whether the strengthening is the proportions of that isotope in the sta- sheets and the weakening of the great oce-
a natural phenomenon. lagrnite's layers, the researchers hoped to anic conveyor belts that transport warmer
In a paper published in Geology, Miaofa be able to detect when Serbia had been ex- water from the tropics into the higher
Li at Fujian Normal University and Slobo- posed to more Atlantic storms or more northern latitudes. Perhaps more data,
dan Markovic at University of Novi Sad, in Mediterranean ones, and thus what the jet gleaned from other stalagmites in other
Serbia, shed new light on that question. stream had been doing. caves, might help unravel the mystery. •
Climate scientists routinely examine an- Drs Li and Markovic and their col-
cient air trapped in polar ice to glean in- leagues examined two stalagmites, one
sights into the state of the climate hun- 38omm specimen from Cerjanska and one Evolutionary biology
dreds or even thousands of years ago. The 238mm one from Prekonoska. Using traces
researchers point out that something very of two other elements, uranium and thori- Why bedbugs are
similar can be accornplished by looking at um, they were able to date both stalag-
the chernical makeup of rock formations mites. The one from Cerjanska grew be- everywhere
in a pair of Serbian caves. tween 434BC and 1913, while the one from
As wíth many caves, the floors of both Prekonoska Cave was formed between
Cerjanska Cave and Prekonoska Cave, both 798BC and 404. They then analysed 581
Like bacteria, they have become
in Serbia's south-east, are dotted with thin samples of an oxygen-containing mineral
resistant to chemical attack
spires of rock called stalagmites. These are called calcium carbonate.
formed, very slowly, by water as it drips The researchers conclude that the o ERNEST HEMINGWAY, Paris was a
down from the rock above. Each droplet
carries dissolved minerals. If water drips
North Atlantic jet stream seems to be
stronger today than it has been at any time
T movable feast. To a bedbug, so are Pari-
sians. In videos on social media, the seats
onto the same spot over many years, asta- during the past 2,500 years. And their con- of the city's metro are seen swarming with
lagmite gradually forms as the minerals fidence in their method was boosted when bedbugs, tiny insects no bigger than an ap-
are deposited. Crucially, analysing the they were able to see in the rocks the signa- ple pip, which feed on human blood.
minerals from which the stalagmite is tures of climatic events known to have The health risk from bedbugs is minor:
made can reveal information about the wa- happened from other sources, such as the itchy bites and a small risk of allergies and
ter that made it. Roman Warm Period, which lasted be- secondary infections. As the present panic
The researchers were interested in Ser- tween 300Bc and 200, and the Dark Ages suggests, the bigger impact tends to be psy-
bia specifically beca use of how its location Cold Period, which ran from roughly 300 to chological, says Clive Boase, an entomolo-
affects its weather. The sort of rain the 700. Intriguingly, the data suggest the jet gist and pest-control consultant. Mosqui-
country gets depends on the strength of stream was stronger during cooler periods toes, leeches and other parasites are un-
the northern polar jet stream. When it is and weaker during warmer ones-the op- pleasant, but do not colonise your home. If
blowing strongly, it tends to blow in clouds posite of the trend being seen today. a traveller brings bedbugs back from their
that formed over the Atlantic Ocean. When Why the modern jet stream appears to holidays, they can start an infestation that
it is weak, clouds tend to drift in from the be doing the opposite is not yet clear. The can be very difficult to shift.
Medi terranean instead. researchers raise as one possibility the at- Schadenfreude among the non-French is
Those two bodies of water have unique mospheric influence of something called unwise. The story is not so much one of
chemical signatures. Water from the Medi- the North Atlantic Warming Hole. This is a bad hygiene and dirty trains as i t is another
terranean has more of arare isotope of oxy- persisten! blob of unusually cool water cautionary tale of globalisation, climate
gen known as oxygen-is, in which that ele- that stretches from the Hudson Strait in change and evolutionary biology. Warm ��
70 Science & technology The Economist October zist 2023

� cities provide ideal environments for bed- invulnerable to at least sorne insecticides. pores through which they breathe. Tem-
bugs. Cheap travel helps them spread. And Tha t growing resistance has been peratures above 45ºC are also fatal. Sorne
after decades of widespread use, the chem- boosted by a depleting arsenal of cherni- pest-control firms therefore offer to heat-
ical insecticides used to kill them are los- cals to hurl against them. Fumigants such treat affected furniture in insulated tents,
ing their power. as hydrogen cyanide, sulphur dioxide and or even to roast entire rooms. But such
Bedbugs are resurgent everywhere. A DDT itself are now regarded in most places treatments are expensive.
decade ago New York went through a simi- as too toxic to use. Pyrethroids, which are New insecticides, to which the bugs
lar panic to Paris's today. Figures from the active ingredients in many commer- lack resistance, could probably be invent-
Switzerland's Pest Advisory Service, which cially available insecticide sprays, are saf- ed. But for now at least, says Mr Boase, the
maintains one of the few long-term data- er, but become less effective every year. rnarket does not exist to justify much cor-
sets about the insects, show that in the de- Exterminators are therefore turning to porate research. And since the bugs do not
cade to 2005, bedbug complaints in Zurich other avenues of attack. Diatomaceous spread diseases, public-health bodies have
numbered around 20 ayear. A decade la ter, earth, a white silicate powder, can kill the more pressing priorities. If bedbugs con-
they had sextupled (see chart). Numbers bugs by desiccating them. Polymer sprays tinue to spread, though, those incentives
fell during covid-io lockdowns, but they can trap thern: certain oils can block the could start to shift. •
have risen since. "There won't be a city
without bedbugs," says Mr Boase.
Humans probably acquired bedbugs
with their first addresses. DNA analysis
suggests that the pests are descended from
How to predict a coin toss
parasites that prey on bats, with which hu-
mans shared caves, and on birds, which
Coins are fair. Their tossers, less so
may have nested in early thatched roofs. In
evolutionary terms, that makes bedbugs a EGEND HOLDS that the city of Portland,
comparatively recent affliction. That may
explain the one bit of good news about
L Oregon, was nearly called Boston. A
coin toss in 1845 between Francis Petty-
them. Mosquitoes spread malaria, dengue grove, who hailed from a different Por-
fever and yellow fever. Bu t no human tland, in Maine, and Asa Lovejoy, from
pathogen is known to use bedbugs as a vec- Boston (the one in Massachusetts) even-
tor=-perhaps because there has not been tually decided the matter. But things
time for one to evolve the ability. might have turned out differently, per
The insects thrive in warm environ- Frantisek Bartos, a graduate student at
ments with plenty of dark places to hide. the University of Amsterdam, if people
Cities, and crowded blocks of flats, are ide- were not such wobbly tossers.
al. The bugs shelter in the crannies of fur- Mr Bartos was interested in a predic-
ni ture, in mattress seams or in cracks in tion made by Persi Diaconis, Susan
walls, coming out to feed at night. Warm, Holmes and Richard Montgomery, a
centrally heated homes accelerate their group of American mathematicians. In
life-cycles, making the problem worse-as 2007 the trio analysed the physics of a
does a warming climate. flipping coin and noticed something
The introduction and widespread use intriguing. Besides sending it somer- We'II take any advantage we can get
of insecticides such as DDT in the after- saulting end-over-end, most people
math of the second world war carne close imparta slight rotation to a coin. That mans' apparent inability to throw
to eliminating the bugs from most rich- causes the axis about which the coin is straight. Mr Bartos was not the first
world houses. But that chernical assault ex- flipping to drift while it is in the air, a person to collect statistics on coin tosses.
erted a powerful evolutionary pressure on phenornenon called precession. But he is the first to have done so on a
the insects to develop resistance to the poi- After crunching the numbers, the scale large enough to detect the bias. (A
sons. Just as bacteria have evolved resis- physicists concluded that a coin thrown previous effort of 40,000 tosses, con-
tance to many of the antibiotics once used by a human should exhibit a subtle but ducted by two students at the University
to kill them, modern bedbugs are almost persistent bias. There was about a 51o/o of California, Berkeley, lacked the statis-
chance that a coin would land the same tical power to confirm the theory.)
-
Sleepless nights
way upas it had been prior to being
thrown. If it was heads-up in the throw-
A 50.8°/o chance is only very slightly
different from perfect fairness. But Mr
Zurich, complaints about bedbugs er's hand, in other words, it would be Bartos points out that it is bigger than the
175 slightly more likely to land heads-up too. advantage enjoyed by a casino in most
Or at least, that was the prediction. varieties of blackjack, And in sorne situa-
150 Enter Mr Bartos, and his admirable tions it may matter. In 2019 Sue Cudilla
125 dedication to empiricism. He convinced became mayor of Araceli, a town in the
48 volunteers to perform 350,707 coin Philippines, on the toss of a coin after the
100
tosses, using everything from an Indian election had been declared a dead heat.
75 two-rupee piece to a Swiss two-franc Even more importantly, a coin toss can
coin. His data confirmed what the phys- determine who bowls or bats first in
50
ics had predicted. The coins landed cricket. Professional athletes spend
25 same-side up 50.8% of the time. thousands of dollars and hours of train-
o The statistics revealed that the coins ing in search of marginal gains. Perhaps
1994 2000 05 10 15 22
themselves showed no particular bias. they should look to the loose change in
The determining factor was indeed hu- the umpire's pocket.
Source: Health and Environment Department, City of Zurich
 71

Political intolerance ("Baracl< Obama is the American politician

I most admire.") He grew u p believing that
Ill liberals "humans matter equally irrespective of the
group to which they belong," His book,
"The Identity Trap", explains why many on
the left abandoned "universalism" He
summarises the "woke" left's logic as fol-
lows: "to ensure that each ethnic, religious
or sexual community enjoys a proportion-
Two new books examine how to cancel "cancel culture"
ate share of income and wealth ... both priv-
In another story, an African-American a te actors and public institutions must
The ldentity Trap. By Yascha Mounk. mother tried to get her seven-year-old into make the way they treat people depend on
Penguin; 416 pages; $32. A/len Lane; [25. a class at school, The principal said no: the grou ps to which they belong,"
The Cancelling of the American Mind. By "That's not the black class." This was nota Most of the people who espouse this
Greg Lukianoff and Rikki Schlott. Simon & scene from the Jim Crow Sou th of the view aspire to improve the world, and
Schuster; 464 pages; $29.99. A/len Lane; [25 195os, but from present-day America, many of the injustices they rail against are
where a growing number of "progressive" real. But the policies they advocate "are
ASCHA MOUNI<'s book contains severa! schools group children by race and teach likely to crea te a society... of warring tribes
Y jolting stories, which encapsulate the
extreme thinking of sorne on the American
thern to think of themselves as "racial be-
ings", all in the name of "antiracism'.
rather than co-operating cornpatriots" The
word "liberal" has long been used in
left. When covid-is vaccines became avail- Mr Mounk, a political scientist atJohns America to mean "left-wing", but many on
able, most countries dispensed them first Hopkins University, is a man of the left. the left now reject basic liberal notions
to health workers and the elderly (who are such as universal values and free
much more vulnerable to the disease than speech. Across the English-speaking world
young people). Yet America's Centres for 7 Also in this section and beyond, they have beco me in toleran t
Disease Control and Prevention urged of those who do not accept their dogma or
72 Whyfilms aregetting longer
states to offer priority to 87m "essential their identity poli tics.
workers", which included package-deliv- 73 Back Story: David Beckham's secret Dismissing "wokeness" as just well-
ery drivers and film crews. Its rationale meaning millennials pushing for social
74 Seekingenlightenment in India
was "racial equity" because old people justice is therefore a mistake, Mr Mounk
were more likely to be white, even though 74 Whatto do with unfinished art argues. N ot enough peo ple understand
such a policy would probably cause thou- that the far left is "moving beyond-or out-
75 Books about Israel and Palestine
sands more deaths. right discarding-the traditional rules and ��
72 Culture The Economist October zist 2023

� norms of dernocracies" He has long been Mr Lukianoff and Ms Schlott offer a cri- not cancellers. Teach them that life is nota
concerned about the authoritarian right tique of the left, pointing out how cancel battle between wholly good and bad peo-
but says it is reasonably well understood culture has eroded academic freedom at ple. Not every "harrn" that someone, some-
( democracy-deniers and all), whereas the universities. But they are equally critica! of where calls out is really harmful. Educat-
intellectual history of the authoritarian the right. They note that sorne of Plorida's ing children about differences, rather than
left is "oddly unexplored territory", new education laws (including one that coddling and insulating thern, is essential.
How did views that are unpopular with bans certain subjects from being taught) "The Cancelling of the American Mind"
the general public become so influential? are "without question unconstitutional". advises companies to foster an intellec-
In Mr Mounk's telling, it starts with group Both books are bold, timely and but- tually diverse workforce. Bosses should
psychology. When Iike-rninded people de- tressed by data. They also offer plausible make clear that a commitment to free
bate political or moral questions, their remedies. The far right can be defeated speech is a condition of employment. And
conclusions become "more radical than only by the right and the far left by the left. universities should scrap political litmus
the beliefs of their individual members" So left-of-centre people who can see what tests for tenure and get back to teaching
he writes. This tendency is compounded is happening should speak up but notvilify students how to debate ideas.
when the group feels under threat, as pro- those who disagree. (Political disagree- The post-liberal right and post-liberal
gressives did during Donald Trump's presi- ment is not moral Iailure, Mr Mounk re- left are much closer to each other than
dency. Dissent is suddenly seen as betray- minds readers.) People should appeal to many people realise. Both are intolerant;
al: hence the fury unleashed on anybody the reasonable majority, he argues, since both prioritise the power of the state over
who violates the group's unwritten and most people are neither "woke" nor individual liberty. They "see each other as
shifting norms. More than three out of five Trumpist. They should not let their indig- mortal enernies", but "feed on each other",
Americans now say they avoid airing their nation turn them into reactionaries. Mr Mounk warns. That is why "everyone
political views for fear of suffering adverse Tl1e advice from Mr Lukianoff and Ms who cares about the survival of free societ-
consequences; only a quarter of college Schlott is more personal: raise kids who are ies should vow to fight both." •
students say they are comfortable discuss-
ing controversia! tapies with their peers.
Students who imbibed what Mr Mounk Film lengths
rather clunkily calls "the identity synthe-
sis" on campus went on "a short march Movie marathons
through the institutions" after they gradu-
ated. Since about 2010 they have carried
their new ideology into the workplace and,
thanks to the power of social media to
create hurricanes of outrage, intimidated
bosses like no previous generation. Young
Why are new films so long?
activists-cum-employees pushed the
American Civil Liberties Union to scrap its ANT TO I<NOW what is coming soon to director Martín Scorsese. At nearly three
iron commitment to free speech and risk-
averse corporate managers to sign off on
W a cinema near you? Probably not an
hour-and-a-half-long movie, as in the old
and a half hours, i ts length is nearly dou ble
that of the average film last year. Even mov-
sorne counter-productive "diversity, equ- days. This year audiences have endured the ie buffs struggle to concéntrate for that
ity and inclusion" training. A slide in a pre- longest instalments yet in the "Indiana long. During the premiere at the Cannes
sentation at Coca-Cola, for example, ex- J ones", "Iohn Wick" and "Mission: Impos- Film Festival in May, sorne viewers dozed
horted employees to "try to be less white", sible" franchises. "Oppenheirner", Chnsto- off. Afterwards there was a mad dash (and
Far from solving the real injustices that pher Nolan's three-hour blockbuster, re- long queue) for the toilets. When did
persist, this way of thinking and talking quired 11 miles (iskm) of film stock for watching a film become such a slog?
threatens to exacerbate them. And instead IMAX showings. The Economist analysed over 100,000
of bracing the country to withstand Mr On October zoth comes "Killers of the feature films released internationally
Trump's influence, it helps him, as Middle Flower Moon" a grisly western from the since the 193os, the start of Hollywood's
America leans right in response to the far golden age, using data from IMDb, a movie
left's excesses. Mr Mounk's answer is a re-
turn to classical liberalism: a rediscovery
-
The long tale
database. The average length of produc-
tions has crept u p by around 24 o/o, from
of universal values and neutral rules, al- Film runtime, hours* one hour and 21 minutes in the 193os to one
lowing people to make common cause Kil!ers of the hour and 47 minutes in 2022 (see chart).
with others of different beliefs and origins. Most popular filrns! F!ower Moon Blockbusters are the worst offenders. For
People should live up to the ideals on 'u 3.5
the ten most-popular titles (measured by
which liberal democracy is based rather Avengers: Endgame how many reviewers rated the films on
than abandoning them because they are so "-o7 3.0
IMDb) average lengths stretched to around
difficult to achíeve, he says. Oppenheimer two and a half hours in 2022, nearly 50%
2.5
While Mr Mounk's message is global, Trend for most
higher than in the 193os.
Greg Lukianoff and Rikki Schlott focus on popular films" Film-makers began churning out pro-
2.0
America. "The Cancelling of the American tracted pictures in the early 196os. Cinema
Mind'' is a cri de coeur for both sides to was booming and auteurs wanted to dis-
1.5
reclaim "free-speech culture". (The authors tinguish their art from television. Epics
work for the Foundation for Individual graced the silver screen, including "Law-
Rights and Expression, a free-speech rence of Arabia" (1962), which surpassed
group.) When two sides cannot even agree 1930 50 70 90 201 O 23 the three-and-a-half hour mark, and "Cleo-
on facts, "it undermines faith in all of the *Excluding films less than 40 minutes in length or with fewer than parra" (1963), which originally exceeded
100 ratings tTop ten in each year by numberof IMDb ratings
institutions we rely on to understand the Sources: IMDb; The Economist
four hours but was later cut down. Back
world," they write. then, audiences enjoyed an intermission ��
 The Economist October zist 2023 Culture 73

David Beckham's guide to celebrity

Modern Jame requires more than justa pretty face

N 2004 THIS columnist visited a school nothing without a plan that you make accuracy. In boyhood matches you see
I near Basra in southern Iraq. The affable
boys seemed to know four words of
early and stick to. It is striking how quick-
ly and clearly Mr Beckharn saw his path
his technique develop: the distinctive
diagonal body shape, windmilling arm
English. Two were obscenities. The other from midfield to endorsements, fashion and touchingly bow-legged gait.
two were "David Beckham", and beyond. "He wanted to be more than a The most old-fashioned virtue of
Not long befare, recounts "Beckham", football player," says Mr Neville, and soon all-hard work=turns out to be grinding-
a new documentary series, the Sun news- he was, hobnobbing with Tom Cruise and ly important. A pushy father is useful in
paper claimed to have found the only Beyoncé. The usual retirement gigs of this regard. "Left foot, right foot, over
person on the planet who hadn't heard of coaching and punditry were not for him. and over and over again," David recalls of
Mr Beckham: a shepherd in Chad. The Like many Bri tish stars he strove to crack Ted Beckharn's drills. If a corner went
four-part series on N etflix is a portal to Ame rica, on and off the fiel d. astray, "he'd kill me." This tough love, he
the flighty years around the turn of the First he conquered Spain, where in says, helped him cope with the abuse
millennium when the footballer was in 2003 Florentino Pérez, president of Real that followed his sending-off at the
his sporting pomp. Watch closely and it Madrid, welcomed him as "a symbol of World Cup of 1998. (An island of dis-
is also, for the ambitious, a handy how-to post-modernity". That suggests his suc- cretion in a sea of self-publicity, Ms
guide to becoming a celebrity and ulti- cess is an artefact of image and marketing: Phipps, the receptionist, declines to
mately a global brand. yet it also rests on old-fashioned qualities discuss the bullets that arrived in the
It helps to be extremely good-looking. that are disappointingly hard to simulate. post.) Sandra, his mum, thinks Ted was
With his dirty-blond mop and impish One is the talent that made his pro file too tough but seems steely herself, dead-
smile, Mr Beckham l1ad a boy-next-door marketable. George Best, a Manchester panning about her personal "hit list"
charrn when he hit TV screens in the United winger of another generation, Fisher Stevens, the director, was in
mid-isoos. Kath Phipps, a long-serving reputedly said that Mr Beckharn couldn't the cast of "Succession", There are echoes
receptionist at Manchester United, his kick with his left foot, head the ball or of that show in the trilling music and
first club, remembers all the knickers tackle, but "apart from that he's ali right," home-video footage of David doing
that were sent to him (Tt's not nice, is it, With his right foot, however, he struck keepie-uppies in the garden. Along with
sending underwear to a boy?"). After corners and free-kicks, and launched access to the family archive Mr Stevens
that, as in a time-lapse photo, the sculpt- passes and crosses, with magical whip and secured big-name interviewees but few
ed sex syrnbol emerges. The tattoos revelations, besides details of Mr Beck-
spread across his torso, up his neck and ham's domestic neat-freakery and his
down his arms; the haircuts become love of beekeeping. A tragic note sounds
jazzier, the stubble better designed. in his split with Sir Alex Ferguson, the
To bank it like Beckham, next find a coach who was his mentor until the
beautiful and famous spouse with an Golden Balls glitz carne between thern.
equal yen for exposure. "It puts the heat And on the main take-home lesson of
factor way up," Anna Wintour, the boss of hard work, "Beckharn" misses a trick.
Vague, says on camera of Mr Beckham's The series opens on the career-defining
romance with Victoria Adams-also day in 1996 when Mr Beckham, then 21,
known as Posh Spice-who nicknamed scored a goal from the halfway line. "I
him Golden Balls. "They were the new looked up, and I thought, 'Why not?" l1e
Charles and Diana," says his friend and says, leaving the impression that a shot
former team-mate Gary Neville, a percep- seen around the world was an act of
tive description of a couple who, like the instinctive genius. In "The Class of '92", a
ill-starred royals, were both lionised and previous documentary, his pal told it
lacerated by the media. differently. "He practised that in train-
But looks and a canny marriage are ing", said Mr Neville, "every single day."

� while the projectionist prepared the reels "Avengers: Endgame" Marvel's three-hour Another explanation for longer films
for the next act. Runtimes of popular films superhero spree, was the highest-grossing has to do with directors' growing clout.
ebbed and flowed over subsequent decades film in 2019. Last year long franchise mov- Wl10 would dare tell the likes of Mr Nolan
(and stretched long in sorne countries, ies made up most of the highest-grossing to trim his masterpieces? Streamers, which
such as India, known for i ts Bollywood sa- films in America. do not have to worry as much about conci-
gas). But they have ballooned since 2018. Anything that lures people off their sion because viewers can pause whenever
Franchises are one driver of this trend. couches to see a film in theatres is good they lil<e, may lure big names with deep
Studios want to squeeze the most out of news for cinemas. But protracted runtimes pockets and promises of crea ti ve freedom.
their costly in tellectual property, bu t they also pose a "fundamental problern", com- "Killers of the Flower Moon" will debut on
are competing with streaming platforms plains Clare Binns, managing director of Apple TV+ after its theatrical run. Netflix
for eyeballs. They hope that a spectacular, Picturehouse, a British cinema grou p and funded and released Mr scorsese's equally
drawn-out "event" movie will tempt audi- film distributor. Long movies can mean long "The Irishman" in 2019, a film that
ences away from the small screen and into forgoing two showings per night, which would have benefited from a decisive edi-
cinemas. This approach has often paid off: hurts ticket sales and profits. tor, Irish or otherwise. •
74 Culture The Economist October zist 2023

with movies in general and Greta Garbo in

particular. Ali are worthy of their own
books, It is to Mr Brown's credit that he
never stoops to mockery or even gentle
irony, despite what must have been con-
siderable temptation.
"Nirvana Express" also tracks renewed
Western interest in Indian spiritualism,
which started with the beatniks in the
195os, peaked with the Beatles arriving in
the Himalayas to meditate with Maharishi
Mahesh Yogi (pictured) and ended with the
dissolution of the Rajneesh Ashram in Ore-
gon. (This was the subject of "Wild Wild
Country" on N etflix, which dramatises the
short-lived but tumultuous commune bet-
ter known for violence, group sex and at-
tempts to poison the local population than
for spirituality.)
The collapse of Rajneesh Ashram,
wri tes Mr Brown, "marked the final pangs
of the Western dream of India as the repos-
Spirituality itory of esoteric wisdom and the promise
of enlightenrnent". It is true that the image
Yogi where of India in the West has changed in recent
years, anda country once associated with
poverty and naked babas is now better
known as an economic giant, a rising geo-
political power andan originator of mod-
ern technology.
Yet India's own conception of itself as
Why seel<ers of enlightenment head for India
an ancient land with spiritual riches to of-
Edwin Arnold was an Oxford-educated fer hurnanity l1as never faded. For evi-
The Nirvana Express. By Mick Brown. editor of the Daily Telegraph who spoke 19 dence, look only to the title that Narendra
Hurst; 400 pages; $34.95 and [25 languages and wrote memoirs, poetry and Modi, the prime minister, bestows on his
history in his spare time. In 1879 he pub- country, and by extension, himself: visti­

F
OR DECADES India has mostly runa cur- lished "The Light of Asia", a 5,300-line nar- waguru, or world teacher. India has never
rent-account deficit, una ble to exportas rative poem about the teachings and life of been short of men who believe themselves
much as the country imports to meet its Buddha. The book went on to sell over im chosen by God to lead the world. •
needs. But in the accounting books of the copies and ignited the first sparks of popu-
heavens, India is a net exporter, on par lar interest in India's religions in the West.
with the Levantas a font of great religions. In 1885 Arnold published "The Song Celes- Unfinished art
Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism and Jain- tial", a translation of the Bhagavad Gita;
ism sprang from its sacred geography. God Mahatrna Gandhi credited it with intro- (Sort of) by
has repeatedly lured spiritual seekers to ducing him to his own religion's most sa-
the su bcontinent-from Xuanzang (a sev- cred text. The two men would go on to be- Sondheim
enth-century Chinese monk who jour- come friends.
neyed to India in search of Buddhist texts) Arnold's Indian analogue was Swami
to Timothy Leary (an American charnpion Vivekananda, a Hindu philosopher who
After artists die, should their work
of LSD). Leary memorably described Vara- electrified the first gathering of the World 's
be completed?
nasi, Hinduism's most sacred place, as the Parliament of Religions in 1893 with his
"the site of a non-stop hippie festival for speeches preaching Hinduism's message art can be arresting. Thinl<
N
ON-FINITO
the last 5, ooo years", of universal acceptance. Arguing that "we of a delicate sculpture protruding
Those seeking to join the piety party Hindus must believe that we are the teach- from a monolith ora swathe of bare canvas
first ventured from Asia, then from Europe ers of the world," he founded spiritual cen- in an otherwise detailed painting. Such
(and especially Britain) during the colonial tres in the West and acquired a devoted artworks give the viewer pause. Did the
era and later, after India's independence in female following. creator intend the effect or simply stop
1947, from America. Indian swamis and gu- Fantastic stories=packed with unlikely halfway through?
rus energetically promoted their teachings figures, strange twists of fate and even the "Here We Are" is one such puzzle. Ste-
to new converts. It is these Western enthu- occasional act of mind-reading-bring phen sondheim, an American composer,
siasts and their Indian idols who are the readers of "Nirvana Express" on an enjoy- had been working on the musical on and
subject of "The Nirvana Express", an en- able journey. Sorne of the colourful charac- off for years alongside David Ives, a play-
lightening new book by Mick Brown, a Brit- ters include Paul Brunton, whose bestsell- wright, and J oe Mantello, a director. In the
ish music journalist with a sideline writing ing "A Search in Secret India", a travelogue- weeks befare his death in 2021, Sondheim
about Asían religion. cum-spíritual-handbook published in 1934 gave a production the go-ahead. But then
The first notable Western figures to take (and still in print), would establish his he said that it was not finished and had no
an interest in Indian religions were not ex- reputation as a sort-of guru figure himself idea when itwould be.
actly long-haired, por-smoking hippies. Sir and Meher Baba, an actual guru obsessed The work will have its premiere on Oc-��
 The Economist October zist 2023 Culture 75

� tober zznd in New York, The press team at achieve an independent state. The book is
the Shed says that it is "very much the com- resonant with personal history and lays
plete show" that sondheim "envisioned, out the barriers that obstructed Palestin-
created and sanctioned", But those who ians' aspirations. It counts the poor deci-
have seen the musical may wonder wheth- sion-rnaking of certain Palestinian leaders
er that is the case. It is peculiar and unlike among its explanations, too.
previous works, such as "Into the Woods".
Inspired by two surrealist films by Luis Ramas. By Beverley Milton-Edwards and
Buñuel, "Here We Are" has a typical Sond- Stephen Farrell. Wiley; 340 pages; $36.95.
heimian premise: a group of friends riven Polity Press; E24.99
with tensions (sexual and otherwise) l1as The militant organisation that rules the
met up. In the first act, they cannot find Gaza Strip first emerged in 1987 during the
somewhere to eat and wander from restau- first Palestinian intifada ("sl1al(ing off", or
rant to restaurant. At a recent preview it uprising). In its first charter Hamas styled
was dreamlike, filled with the kind of com- itself as the "Islarnic Resistance Move-
plex harmonies, witticisms and interna! ment" and declared Israel illegitimate. In
rhymes that Sondheim is known for. 2006 Hamas became the first Islamist
Then, in the second act, the tone shifts. movement to ascend to power in the
The group finally has a meal but then is Middle East by winning an election. The
trapped in the room. The music stops; the authors interviewed hundreds of people
characters struggle to sing. Sondheim over three decades, including the group's
seems to have left at the intermission. Mr leaders, fighters, opponents and victims.
Mantello has said that he carne up with the The lsrael-Palestine conflict This book explains the inception of the
idea, based on the films but that Sondheim "largest, most influential and most deadly
agreed with his assessment that "the ab- Written in blood Islamist organisation" and how it became
sence of music was the score." en trenched in Gaza.
History is littered with Ieft-behind
works-in-progress, Geoffrey Chaucer's pil- The Rise of the Israeli Right. By Col in
grims never made it to their shrine. Gustav Shindler. Cambridge University Press; 440
Klimt died in 1918 before l1e could finish
Six books that shed light on a century pages; $38.99 and E29.99
"The Bride", so sorne figures have the Aus- The righ t first carne to power in Israel
of violence in the Middle East
trian artist's signature look and others are nearly five decades ago, but its current
outlines. In neither case <loes it matter government maybe the most right-wing
much. The stories in "The Canterbury A Peace to End Ali Peace. By David From- in the country's 75-year history, This richly
Tales" stand alone. The gaps left by Klimt kin. Holt, Henry & Company; 688 pages; $26 detailed book analyses with clarity and
can be filled in by the imagination. Tensions in the Middle East are a political insight the political and philosophical
Sorne find the Iack of closure unsatisfy- inheritance of the dissolution of the Otto- ideas that drive the right. The author, who
ing, however, and attempt to finish a piece man empire after the first world war and is a professor at Cambridge, studies im-
on an artist's behalf. Mozart died partway the piecemeal settlements of 1922. This portant thinkers and figures such as Ze'ev
through writing a requiem; it was complet- landrnark book, published in 1989 and Iabotinsky (the founder of the Zionist
ed first by a pupil and later by musicolo- named as a finalist for the Pulitzer prize, Right) and Binyamin Netanyahu (Israel's
gists. (The results have divided listeners.) provides a sweeping account of the period prime minister).
Artificial intelligence is also being used to between 1914 and 1922, ranging from the
fill the silence. When Beethoven died, his Mediterranean to Afghanistan. It astutely It's Easier to Reach Heaven than the
Tenth symphony was just a collection of traces the Allies' motivations for carving End of the Street. By Emma Williams.
sketches, A team from Rutgers University up the Arab world and shows why the Olive Branch Press; 412 pages; $16. Blooms­
trained an Al model on the maestro's work West's imperial vision was doomed to fail. bury; E8.99
and extrapolated a composition. In 2000 the author, a British doctor, ac-
Financia! incentives can push unfin- Enemies and Neighbours. By Ian Blacl<. companied her husband, a UN official, and
ished work to be released without the nec- Atlantic Monthly Press; 608 pages; $30. three small children to Israel. A month
essary caveats. Before Harper Lee died in Allen Lane; E25 later the second Palestinian intifada erupt-
2016, "Go Set a Watchman", an early draft of When, exactly, the Israel-Palestine conflict ed. This moving memoir=which spans
"To Kill a Mockingbird", was initially began is hard to say. Many consider No- three years-documents the events she
passed off as a discrete novel. Others sug- vember z nd 1917 to be the starting-point: witnessed. She gave birth to a fourth child
gest that artists would rather partial or that is the date of the Balfour Declaration, in a hospital in Bethlehem, which was
abandoned pieces stay private. Yet perhaps when the British government vowed to shelled by the Israeli army. A Palestinian
it is worse for the art never to be seen. Jane use its "best endeavours" to create a "na- suicide-bomber blew himself up near her
Austen's "Sanditon" collected dust until tional home" for the J ewish people in children's school, with his head landing at
1925, more than a century after her death. Palestine, a territory it would take from the foot of their teacher.
Although it stops in the middle of a chap- the Ottomans. This balanced book, praised
ter, betrothals still to be secured, the novel by Palestinian and Israeli historians alike, The Economist's journalists have also
contains sorne of Austen's sharpest lines. offers a tour of the past century of conflict. written books about the conflict. Anton La
What about "Here We Are"? Strange Guardia, our diplomatic editor, is the
though it is, fans may still be pleased to The Iron Cage. By Rashid Khalidi, Beacon author of "Holy Land, Unholy War", Gregg
hear it. The first act, at least, proves that Press; 288 pages; $19.95. Oneworld Publica­ Carlstrom, our Middle East correspon-
Sondheim's strengths remained potent. He tions; E34.99 dent, wrote "How Long Will Israel Sur-
was a master of wordplay, ambition and An eminent Palestinian-American histori- vive?". Anshel Pfeffer, our Israel corre-
emotional complexity to the end. • an explains why Palestinians failed to spondent, is the author of "Bibi", •
16 Courses

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wa cJed during the 2023-24 academic year. The oríze
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De aüs bout the prize and the oomrnatton procesa
can be found a nemmers.northwestern.edL1. lndividuals
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Economic & financial indicators The Economist October zist 2023 77

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget I nterest rates Currency units
ºlo change on year ago ºlo change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds cha nge on per $ ºlo cha nge
latest quarter* 2023t la test 2023t ºlo o/o of GDP, 2023t ºlo of GDP, 2023t latest,0lo year ago, bp Oct 18th on year ago
United States 2.4 Q2 2.1 2.0 3.7 Sep 4.1 3.8 Sep -2.9 -5.7 4.9 90.0
China 4.9 Q3 5.3 5.2 nil Sep 0.7 5.0 Sep*§ 1.8 -3.2 2.6 §§ 13.0 7.31 -1.5
Japan 1.6 Q2 4.8 2.0 3.1 Aug 2.9 2.7 Aug 2.9 -5.2 0.8 55.0 150 -0.5
Britain 0.6 Q2 0.8 0.4 6.7 Sep 6.8 4.3 Juntt -2.5 -3.9 4.5 7.0 0.82 7.3
Ca nada 1.1 Q2 -0.2 1.1 3.8 Sep 4.1 5.5 Sep -0.4 -1.4 4.1 75.0 1.37 0.7
Euro area 0.5 Q2 0.5 0.7 4.3 Sep 5.6 6.4 Aug 2.2 -3.4 2.9 63.0 0.95 7.4
Austria -1.3 Q2 -3.0* -0.2 5.7 Sep 7.9 5.3 Aug 2.4 -2.4 3.6 56.0 0.95 7.4
Belgium 0.9 Q2 0.6 1.0 0.7 Sep 2.6 5.5 Aug -0.7 -4.6 3.6 59.0 0.95 7.4
France 1.0 Q2 2.1 0.8 5.7 Sep 5.7 7.3 Aug -1.1 -5.0 3.4 47.0 0.95 7.4
Germany -0.1 Q2 0.1 -0.3 4.3 Sep 6.1 3.0 Aug 5.2 -2.4 2.9 63.0 0.95 7.4
Greece 2.9 Q2 5.1 2.4 2.4 Sep 3.8 10.9 Aug -6.3 -2.1 4.5 -55.0 0.95 7.4
ltaly 0.3 Q2 -1.5 0.9 5.6 Sep 6.3 7.3 Aug 1.0 -5.3 5.0 37.0 0.95 7.4
Netherlands -0.2 Q2 -0.9 0.2 -0.3 Sep 4.5 3.6 Aug 8.2 -1.9 3.3 68.0 0.95 7.4
Spain 2.2 Q2 2.1 2.4 3.3 Sep 3.4 11.5 Aug 1.6 -4.1 3.9 52.0 0.95 7.4
Czech Republic -1.1 02 -0.1 nil 6.9 Sep 10.4 2.6 Aug* -1.1 -3.8 4.8 -101 23.4 6.3
Denmark 0.6 Q2 - 1.4 2.0 0.9 Sep 4.0 2.9 Aug 10.5 1.5 3.2 51.0 7.08 6.6
Norway 0.7 Q2 0.1 1.4 3.3 Sep 5.8 3.5 JuJ# 17.1 10.8 1.4 76.0 11.1 -4.5
Poland -0.6 Q2 -8.5 -0.1 8.2 Sep 11.4 5.0 Aug§ 0.7 -4.8 5.8 -240 4.22 14.9
Russia 4.9 02 na -0.5 6.0 Sep 6.5 3.0 Aug§ 1.8 -3.8 12.3 214 97.5 -36.1
Sweden -0.8 Q2 -3.3 -0.6 6.5 Sep 6.0 7 .7 Aug§ 4.1 -0.3 3.1 92.0 11.0 0.7
Switzerland 0.5 Q2 0.1 0.8 1.7 Sep 2.2 2.1 Sep 6.8 -0.7 1.1 -21.0 0.90 10.0
Turkey 3.8 Q2 14.6 3.1 61 .5 Sep 5 3 .1 9.2 Aug§ -4.4 -5.0 26.3 1,603 28.0 -33.7
Australia 2.1 Q2 1.4 1.6 6.0 Q2 5.6 3.6 Sep 1.7 0.3 4.6 72.0 1.58 0.6
Hong Kong 1.5 Q2 -5.2 2.9 1.7 Aug 1.9 2.8 Aug** 8.4 -1.7 4.4 52.0 7.83 0.3
India 7.8 Q2 11.0 6.5 5.0 Sep 5.7 8.1 Apr -1.3 -5.9 7.3 -8.0 83.3 -1.1
Indonesia 5.2 Q2 na 5.0 2.3 Sep 3.8 5.5 Q1§ 0.7 -2.4 6.8 -59.0 15,730 -1.7
Malaysia 2.9 Q2 na 4.0 2.0 Aug 2.7 3.4 Aug§ 1.8 -5.0 4.1 -33.0 4.74 -0.4
Pakistan 1.7 2023** na 1.7 31.4 Sep 32.2 6.3 2021 -1.7 -7.7 16.0 ttt 322 280 -21.5
Philippines 4.3 Q2 -3.6 4.1 6.1 Sep 5.7 4.8 Q3§ -4.6 -7.0 6.6 -57.0 56.7 3.6
Singapore 0.7 Q3 4.0 1.0 4.0 Aug 4.7 1.9 Q2 18.9 -0.7 3.4 -17.0 1.37 3.6
South Korea 0.9 Q2 2.5 1.3 3.7 Sep 3.3 2.3 Sep§ 1.9 -2.7 4.3 2.0 1,350 5.4
Taiwan 1.4 Q2 5.6 0.8 2.9 Sep 2.2 3.4 Aug 12.5 -0.4 1.3 -49.0 32.3 -1.0
Thailand 1.8 Q2 0.7 2.8 0.3 Sep 1.6 1.0 Aug§ 1.1 -2.7 2.8 -37.0 36.3 5.0
Argentina -4.9 Q2 -10.9 -2.8 138 Sep 129.9 6.2 Q2§ -2.8 -4.2 na na 350 -56.3
Brazil 3.4 Q2 3.7 3.1 5.2 Sep 4.7 7.8 Aug§*-* -1.8 -7.6 11.7 -11.0 5.07 3.9
Chile -1.1 Q2 -1.2 -0.2 5.1 Sep 7.5 9.0 Aug§t.; -4.3 -3.0 6.5 3.0 938 3.8
Colombia 0.3 Q2 -4.1 1.6 11.0 Sep 11.5 9.3 Aug§ -4.0 -4.2 11.7 -240 4,237 11.8
Mexico 3.6 Q2 3.4 3.2 4.5 Sep 5.5 2.7 Aug -1.8 -3.8 1 O.O 13.0 18.3 9.4
Peru -0.5 Q2 1.5 0.1 5.0 Sep 6.5 6.3 Sep§ -1.3 -2.9 7.5 -124 3.86 3.1
Egypt 3.9 01 na 4.0 37.9 Sep 36.8 7.0 Q2§ -2.6 -6.7 na na 30.9 -36.4
Israel 3.4 Q2 3.1 3.1 3.8 Sep 4.4 3.2 Sep 4.5 -2.0 4.3 90.0 4.03 -12.7
Saudi Arabia 8.7 2022 na 0.1 1.7 Sep 2.3 4.9 Q2 3.0 -0.8 na na 3.75 0.3
South Africa 1.6 Q2 2.4 0.5 5.5 Sep 5.7 32.6 Q2§ -1.8 -5.7 10.8 2.0 19.1 -5.0
Source: Haver Analytics. *ºlo change on previous quarter, annual rate. tThe Economist lntelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. +New series. **Year endingJune. ttLatest 3 months. ++3-month moving
average. §§S-year yield. tttoollar-denominated bonds. Note: Euro area consumer prices are harmonised.

Markets Com modities

ºlo change on: ºlo change on:
lndex one Dec 30th index one Dec 30th The Economist commodity-price index ºlo change on
In local currency Oct 18th week 2022 Oct 18th week 2022 2015=100 Oct10th Oct17th* month year
United States S&P 500 4,314.6 -1.4 12.41 Pakistan KSE 49,406.2 1.9 22.2 Dollar lndex
United States NAScomp 13,314.3 -2.5 27.2 Singapore STI 3, 136.6 -1.8 -3.5 All ltems 141.7 144.1 -2.8 -0.1
China Shanghai Comp 3,058.7 -0.7 -1.0 South Korea KOSPI 2,462.6 0.5 10.1 Food 125.6 128.2 -2.9 -7.4
China Shenzhen Comp 1,856.1 -2.7 -6.0 Taiwan TWI 16,440.9 -1.4 16.3 lndustrials
Japan Nikkei 225 32,042.3 0.3 22.8 Thailand SET 1,437.9 -1.2 -13.8 AII 156.7 159.0 -2.8 6.1
Japan Topix 2,295.3 -0.5 21.3 Argentina MERV 798,907.3 11.5 295.3 Non-food agriculturals 114.0 115.4 1.7 -17.8
Britain FTSE 100 7,588.0 -0.4 1.8 Brazil BVSP* 114,059.6 -2.6 3.9 Meta Is 169.3 171.9 -3.6 12.7
Canada S&P TSX 19,450.7 -1.1 0.3 Mexico IPC 49,274.8 -2.1 1.7
Sterling lndex
Euro area EURO STOXX 50 4, 105.9 -2.3 8.2 Egypt EGX30 22, 117.4 12.5 51.5
AII items 176.4 180.6 -1.1 -7.2
France CAC 40 6,966.0 -2.3 7.6 Israel TA-1 25 1,713.4 -1.9 -4.9
Germany DAX* 15,094.9 -2.4 8.4 Saudi Arabia Tadawul 10,714.1 1.3 1.6 Euro lndex
ltaly FTSE/M I B 28, 135.8 -1.0 18.7 South Africa JSE AS 71,968.7 -2.5 -1.5 AII items 148.3 151.1 -1.8 -7.0
Netherlands AEX 729.6 -1.1 5.9 World, dev'd MSCI 2,851.9 -1.6 9.6 Gold
Spain I BEX 35 9,212.7 -1.6 12.0 Emerging markets MSCI 943.1 -1.4 -1.4 $ per oz 1,858.3 1,926.2 -0.4 16.6
Poland WIG 70,474.8 5.1 22.6
Brent
Russia RTS, $ terms 1,051.2 4.6 8.3
$ per barrel 87.7 90.3 -4.5 0.1
Switzerland SM I 10,675.4 -3.3 -0.5 US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries
Turkey BIST 7,842.7 -5.9 42.4 Dec 30th Sources: Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Refinitiv Datastream;
Australia AII Ord. 7,265.7 -0.2 0.6 Basis points la test 2022 Fastmarkets; FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Uve Rice lndex; LME; NZ Wool
Services; Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.
Hong Kong Hang Seng 17,732.5 -0.9 -10.4 lnvestment grade 134 154
India BSE 65,877.0 -0.9 8.3 High-yield 448 502
Indonesia IDX 6,927.9 -0.1 1.1 Sources: Refinitiv Datastream; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed lncome For more countries and additiona I data, visit
Malaysia KLSE 1,446.5 0.7 -3.3 Research. *Total return index. economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators
ª Obituary Ofir Libstein
1 The Economist October zist 2023

Negev, though so near Gaza, was not all Hamas and shooting. It
was a hard case to make. Hamas rockets hit the Iron Dome right
overhead, and pieces fell everywhere; the ground around was full
of improvised bombs. In 2018, youths in Gaza tied incendiary de-
vices to kites and balloons and sent them floating across, where he
watched with sick horror as trees, crops and gardens exploded in
flames. In May 2021 rockets fell on Sha'ar HaN egev for 11 straight
days. Des pite the fact that everyone in Kfar Aza had steel-and-con-
crete safe-rooms in their houses, in 2022 he sent the mothers and
children away to the north. A study had found that most of the lo-
cal chíldren had post-trauma tic stress.
Yet he insisted those scary times were rare. That was just life on
the edge: 5°/o hell, but 95°/o paradise. His main Facebook picture
showed a view of lush, rolling, improbably green hills dotted with
trees. In those fields grew wheat, barley, vines, melons, avocados,
cotton, almonds and olives. The desert soil was watered with a
huge network of irrigation pipes. And that was not all that grew
there. Increasingly he was pinning his hopes on tech startups, and
in the five years l1e had been mayor 40 companies had arrived in
his new enterprise zone. Among the single-storey white houses,
shaded with palms and lively with children (including four boys
of his own), there were now glass-walled offices in which go-
ahead tech types networked and hatched their ideas.
He also looked abroad for help. rne Californian city of San Die-
go twinned itself with Sl1a'ar HaNegev, and the [ewish Federation
there provided seed money for a tech incubator; the Jewish Na-
tional Fund in Australia helped wíth u fortified kindergartens and
Life on the edge an "Innovation Campus". Since 2013 the region's population had
doubled. That spelled better protection, through sheer numbers,
of the western border. He was keeping the land of Israel.
As a l<ibbutznil<, living in I(far Aza or Kfar Neter for most of his
life, his devotion to Israel was total. Bu t he was less a Zionist than a
socialist and communitarian, as the first kibbutz-builders had
Ofir Libstein, mayor of Sha'ar HaNegev, was killed in the
been. Besides, his dreams for the region went far beyond mere de-
Ramas attacks on October 7th, aged 50
fensive hunkering down. His vision was "spatial": if there was
HENEVER HE WALI<ED round his patch of the northern Ne- good in a place, it should benefit the whole diverse human mosaic
W gev, Ofir Libstein fairly buzzed with ideas. Sha'ar HaNegev
was not large, just 180 square kilornetres, three kilornetres from
there. Prosperity had to involve everyone. He was sure that most
Gazans wanted what Israelis did: peace, well-paid jobs, care for
the Gaza Strip, with around 6,000 people living in ten kibbutzim their families. He set out to provide thern.
and one communal farrn. But he had power, as mayor, to make it It was hard to deal directly with Palestinians, since the border
work as well as possible. Sorting out the traffic on the main road, was almost entirely sealed. But in partnership with the Israeli city
for example, by replacing the multiple intersections wíth round- of Sderot, which lay less than a kilornetre from the fence, he
abouts. Encouraging his Facebook followers to eat at local restau- planned an industrial zone called Arazim around the Erez cross-
rants, like Iulie's amazing Chinese in hís own kibbutz, Kfar Aza, ing. This could draw up to 10,000 Gazans to work in Israel every
that were still struggling after covid. And putting all available day. There would also be a training hub for thern, education pro-
buildings to new use. Whenever he saw a disused mess hall, a de- grammes anda medica! centre. He envisaged so many Gazans with
serted factory, even an old cowshed, he wanted to fill thern with a stake in Arazim that they would never think to attack it, or allow
entrepreneurs working on exciting things. Hamas to. That, in his view, was how Israel could properly protect
He was an entrepreneur himself, starting young. When his un- itself. Even l1e admitted that this was quite a stretch, but the resi-
ele ran the kiosk in Kfar Neter he opened a branch at school. When dents of Sha'ar HaNegev did not seem to object. In the regional
his father did wheelchair repairs for the nursing home where his election for mayor in zois=when his rival had been Israel's first
mother worked, he went into a motorised wheelchair business female brigade commander, promising more security-he, known
with him. From there he moved, with relatives, into office equip- mostly for anemones, won with almost zoss of the vote.
ment, then into online coaching, then into agritech, the mainstay That margin, and his ten-year term, inspired him. He could do
of Sl1a'ar HaNegev. The Libstein pot was always bubbling and, al- a lot in all that time. Airead y, for example, he had incorporated the
most always, successfully. poorly treated Bedouin into his anemone festival, and was chair-
His most popular idea, though, was to leverage flowers. In 2007 man of a museum where their culture was celebrated. Perhaps Pal-
he and his wife Vered founded the Darom Adom ("Red south") fes- estinians could become involved in Sha'ar HaNegev in the same
tival to celebrate the anemones which, for a brief few weeks in ear- way, once the two sides had learned to respect each other. Perhaps
ly spring, spread scarlet through the woods and fields. This won- the share of life there that was paradise could rise to 100%.
der drew in visitors from far and wide, but he had noticed that But the factories of Arazim were not yet built when, early in the
there was nothing, besides marvelling, for them to do. So he intro- morning on October zth. swarms of Hamas terrorists broke
duced country lodging, walkíng trails, bike tours, jugglers and ac- through the border fence. The residents of Kfar Aza had already
robats, craft fairs and farrners' markets, more everyyear. The festi- been warned by text not to go outside, but he disobeyed his own
val bloomed and boomed. His Facebook page showed him lying order, answering fire with fire. He rushed out to defend both his
among anemones, smiling broadly in appreciation. kibbutz and his dreams-including those lovely, leveraged anem-
He founded the festival largely to prove that life in Sha'ar Ha- ones that dyed the dry ground red. •
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