Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • Statistics 3 - Probability

    Uploaded by

    أمجد هاتف منفي جفال
    31 views31 pages
    This document discusses key concepts in probability. It defines probability as the chance of an event occurring and describes probability experiments like coin flips or card draws. It discusses classical probability which assumes outcomes are equally likely versus empirical probability which relies on actual experience. It presents rules for probabilities like they cannot be negative or over 1. It also covers complementary events, Venn diagrams, the law of large numbers, and subjective probability which uses educated guesses.

    Original Description:

    Original Title

    Statistics 3 _ Probability

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    This document discusses key concepts in probability. It defines probability as the chance of an event occurring and describes probability experiments like coin flips or card draws. It discusses classical probability which assumes outcomes are equally likely versus empirical probability which relies on actual experience. It presents rules for probabilities like they cannot be negative or over 1. It also covers complementary events, Venn diagrams, the law of large numbers, and subjective probability which uses educated guesses.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    31 views31 pages

    Statistics 3 - Probability

    Uploaded by

    أمجد هاتف منفي جفال
    This document discusses key concepts in probability. It defines probability as the chance of an event occurring and describes probability experiments like coin flips or card draws. It discusses classical probability which assumes outcomes are equally likely versus empirical probability which relies on actual experience. It presents rules for probabilities like they cannot be negative or over 1. It also covers complementary events, Venn diagrams, the law of large numbers, and subjective probability which uses educated guesses.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 31

    Lecture Three

    Probability
    Probability

    Probability as a general concept can be defined as the


    chance of an event occurring.
    Probability
    Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card
    from a deck are called probability experiments.
    Probability
    Probability
    Probability
    Probability
    Tree Diagram
    Probability
    Rounding Rule for Probabilities
     Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or—where
    appropriate—percentages.
     If you ask, “What is the probability of getting a head when a coin
    is tossed?” typical responses can be any of the following three.
    “One-half, 1/2”
    “Point five, 0.5”
    “Fifty percent, 50%”
     These answers are all equivalent.
     Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or
    rounded to two or three decimal places.
     When the probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, it
    is permissible to round the decimal to the first nonzero digit after
    the point.
     For example, 0.0000587 would be 0.00006.
     If decimals are converted to percentages to express
    probabilities, move the decimal point two places to the right and
    add a percent sign.
    Probability Rules

    Rule 1 states that probabilities cannot be negative or greater than 1.

    In other words, if P(E) = 1, then the event E is certain to occur.


    Example:
    Example:
    Complementary Event
    Example:
    Example:
    Venn Diagram
    The difference between classical and empirical probability is
    that classical probability assumes that certain outcomes are
    equally likely (such as the outcomes when a die is rolled),
    while empirical probability relies on actual experience to
    determine the likelihood of outcomes.
    Example:
    Example:
    Law of Large Numbers
     When a coin is tossed one time, it is common knowledge that
    the probability of getting a head is 1/2. But what happens when
    the coin is tossed 50 times? Will it come up heads 25 times? Not
    all the time. You should expect about 25 heads if the coin is fair.
    But due to chance variation, 25 heads will not occur most of the
    time.
     If the empirical probability of getting a head is computed by
    using a small number of trials, it is usually not exactly 1/2.
    However, as the number of trials increases, the empirical
    probability of getting a head will approach the theoretical
    probability of 1/2, if in fact the coin is fair (i.e., balanced). This
    phenomenon is an example of the law of large numbers.
    Subjective Probability
     Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an
    educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact
    information.
     In subjective probability, a person or group makes an educated
    guess at the chance that an event will occur.
     This guess is based on the person’s experience and evaluation of a
    solution.
     A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a
    30% chance the patient will need an operation.
     A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability that an
    earthquake will occur in a certain area.
     These are only a few examples of how subjective probability is
    used in everyday life.
     All three types of probability (classical, empirical, and subjective)
    are used to solve a variety of problems in business, engineering,
    and other fields.
    Thank you

    You might also like