DB Slides
DB Slides
DB Slides
Global Automotive
Conference
Ford Motor Company | January 16, 2018
Important Notice Regarding This Presentation
• This presentation includes our preliminary view of 2017 results. Our actual results could differ
materially from the preliminary results included in this presentation. We will provide additional detail
on 2017 results in our earnings presentation on January 24, 2018. Our Annual Report on Form 10-K,
which will be filed in February, will include our audited financial results.
• This presentation also includes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on
expectations, forecasts, and assumptions by our management and involve a number of risks,
uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those
stated. For a discussion of these risks, uncertainties, and other factors, please see the “Cautionary Note
on Forward-Looking Statements” at the end of this presentation and “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our
Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, as updated by subsequent Quarterly
Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K.
2
Bob Shanks
Chief Financial Officer
3
We are focused on improving our recent performance
4
And working to win in a future of
Smart Vehicles in a Smart World
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Our priorities
1. Rapidly improving our fitness to lower costs, release capital and finance growth
6
In 2017 we delivered solid results, in line with guidance
$
Company Company Adjusted Adjusted Automotive Segment Automotive Segment
Revenue Pre-Tax Results* EPS* EPS Operating Margin Operating Cash Flow
(GAAP) (Non-GAAP) (Non-GAAP) (GAAP) (GAAP) (GAAP)
* Shareholder distributions divided by net income excluding pension and OPEB reimbursement gains and losses and tax-only specials 8
In 2018, we will change how we report to improve
transparency and better align with industry convention
Preliminary 2017 Results – Prior (Bils) Preliminary 2017 Results – New (Bils)
9
U.S. tax reform is expected to have a beneficial impact
on Ford
Tax Reform Element Preliminary Results / Expected Outcome
10
For 2018, we expect external factors to be mixed
2017 2018 Change
Industry Volume (Mils.)
Global 94.6 ~ 97 Higher
U.S. 17.5 Low 17s Slightly Lower
Brazil 2.2 Mid 2s Higher
Europe 20.9 Low 21s Slightly Higher
China 27.8 Mid 28s Slightly Higher
11
Our Company outlook for adjusted EPS in 2018 is lower
than 2017 due to external headwinds
Company Operating
Company Revenue Adjusted EPS* Cash Flow**
(GAAP) (Non-GAAP) (Non-GAAP)
Preliminary
Available At
2017 FY $156.8B $1.78
4Q Earnings
Result
$11.6 7.8%
$11.3 7.5%
$10.6 6.7%
$10.6 6.9%
6.1%
$9.6
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We are improving our fitness and making strategic
choices for today, tomorrow and the long term
FAR
NEAR
NOW
NOW
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Jim Farley
President, Global Markets
Fitness
Partnerships
Portfolio Reset
Electrified Vehicles
Autonomous Vehicles
Fitness
Partnerships
Portfolio Reset
Electrified Vehicles
Autonomous Vehicles
What do we mean by fitness?
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Simplicity through complexity reduction
Complexity Reduction at the vehicle level and part level drive near term improvements
including lower inventories, faster product turns and lower logistics costs
IT incremental investment will drive more efficiency and eliminate legacy systems
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Efficiency through best-in-class approach
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Fitness
Partnerships
Portfolio Reset
Electrified Vehicles
Autonomous Vehicles
Partnerships strengthen our competitive position
Recently announced 22
Fitness
Partnerships
Portfolio Reset
Electrified Vehicles
Autonomous Vehicles
We continue to evolve, building on our strengths while
addressing market challenges
• Strategic choices
• Marketing reset and brand plan
• Cost reset
• Product – play-to-win profitably
• 100% connectivity in the U.S. by 2019;
90% globally by 2020
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Shifting product portfolio to leverage our strengths
North America 25
• Leadership in trucks, vans launches by 2019
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Shifting product portfolio to leverage our strengths
27 Europe
launches by 2019
26
Shifting product portfolio to leverage our strengths
Asia Pacific 24
launches by 2019
29%
• Ranger growth plan in Australia, refresh rate by 2019
27
Fitness
Partnerships
Portfolio Reset
Electrified Vehicles
Autonomous Vehicles
EV strategy plays to our strengths, builds on our brands,
leverages scale and innovates across the value chain
Ionity
Mustang Hybrid Fast Charging
Infrastructure
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We will spend over $11 billion on electrification by 2022
China
Original Revised 2015 - 2022 • BEVs and hybrids from our CAF and
Investment Investment JMC JVs
2015 - 2020
• Value BEVs from our Zotye JV
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By 2022, we will have a significant BEV and electrified
lineup
• Dedicated BEV platforms
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Full Battery • Includes our trucks and vans
Electric Vehicles
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Fitness
Partnerships
Portfolio Reset
Electrified Vehicles
Autonomous Vehicles
Our approach to AVs is focused on combining scalable,
human-centered foundational technology with
innovative, robust business models
Strong software talent
AV Software
Strategic investments in enabling technologies (e.g., LiDAR)
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We are building our AV business in multiple cities in
preparation for a 2021 production launch
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Timeline – building an AV business
2018
Partnership Platform 2019 - 2020
Expand business model and
2021
•
user experience pilots with Partnership Platform
strategic partners • Diversify partner network
including small businesses
Launch Cities 1 & 2
• Establish terminal operations Launch Cities
for fleet management • Expand footprint to
additional cities
Technology Development Scale production
• Grow prototype test fleet Technology Development
deployment
• Deploy self-driving vehicles on
partner networks with
customers
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Questions & Answers
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Cautionary Note On Forward-Looking Statements
Statements included or incorporated by reference herein may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are based on expectations, forecasts,
and assumptions by our management and involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those stated, including, without limitation:
• Decline in industry sales volume, particularly in the United States, Europe, or China, due to financial crisis, recession, geopolitical events, or other factors;
• Lower-than-anticipated market acceptance of Ford’s new or existing products or services, or failure to achieve expected growth;
• Market shift away from sales of larger, more profitable vehicles beyond Ford’s current planning assumption, particularly in the United States;
• Continued or increased price competition resulting from industry excess capacity, currency fluctuations, or other factors;
• Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates;
• Adverse effects resulting from economic, geopolitical, protectionist trade policies, or other events;
• Work stoppages at Ford or supplier facilities or other limitations on production (whether as a result of labor disputes, natural or man-made disasters, tight credit markets or other financial distress, production constraints or difficulties, or other
factors);
• Single-source supply of components or materials;
• Labor or other constraints on Ford’s ability to maintain competitive cost structure;
• Substantial pension and other postretirement liabilities impairing liquidity or financial condition;
• Worse-than-assumed economic and demographic experience for pension and other postretirement benefit plans (e.g., discount rates or investment returns);
• Restriction on use of tax attributes from tax law “ownership change;”
• The discovery of defects in vehicles resulting in delays in new model launches, recall campaigns, or increased warranty costs;
• Increased safety, emissions, fuel economy, or other regulations resulting in higher costs, cash expenditures, and/or sales restrictions;
• Unusual or significant litigation, governmental investigations, or adverse publicity arising out of alleged defects in products, perceived environmental impacts, or otherwise;
• Adverse effects on results from a decrease in or cessation or claw back of government incentives related to investments;
• Cybersecurity risks to operational systems, security systems, or infrastructure owned by Ford, Ford Credit, or a third party vendor or supplier;
• Failure of financial institutions to fulfill commitments under committed credit and liquidity facilities;
• Inability of Ford Credit to access debt, securitization, or derivative markets around the world at competitive rates or in sufficient amounts, due to credit rating downgrades, market volatility, market disruption, regulatory requirements, or other
factors;
• Higher-than-expected credit losses, lower-than-anticipated residual values, or higher-than-expected return volumes for leased vehicles;
• Increased competition from banks, financial institutions, or other third parties seeking to increase their share of financing Ford vehicles; and
• New or increased credit regulations, consumer or data protection regulations, or other regulations resulting in higher costs and/or additional financing restrictions.
We cannot be certain that any expectation, forecast, or assumption made in preparing forward-looking statements will prove accurate, or that any projection will be realized. It is to be expected that there may be differences between projected and
actual results. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of their initial issuance, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future
events, or otherwise. For additional discussion, see "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, as updated by subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K.
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Appendix
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2018 Financial Reporting Change Questions
Why is Ford changing its financial reporting? Why is AV moving from Automotive to Mobility?
• Provide more transparency for our business including Mobility • AV will involve connectivity and business models more closely
• Focus more on operating results of the business aligned with our Mobility Segment than the Automotive
• Align with analyst models and reporting by other OEMs Segment
What will be included for SEC operating segment disclosures? Where will EV be reported?
• Ford will have three operating segments: Automotive, Mobility, • EV will continue to be reported within Automotive
and Ford Credit Why change reporting from PBT to EBIT ?
Why break-out Mobility? Why Now? • EBIT provides more focus on operating results and better aligns
• To provide transparency for the Mobility Segment, which was with modeling by analysts
created in 2016 and continued to develop through 2017. What is the difference between prior reporting of Financial
Although Mobility will continue to develop going forward, the Services and the new reporting for Ford Credit?
structure is sufficiently developed to report as a segment • Previously, Financial Services included Ford Credit and interest
When will Mobility show a profit? on legacy debt from prior Financial Services businesses. Going
• Initially, we expect Mobility to be loss making as we invest for forward, the interest expense on legacy debt will be combined
the future. We are in a transition period as the technology and with Automotive debt and reported as Interest on Debt
business models mature. We expect to generate attractive Where is Ford Credit revenue (interest income) and interest
returns in the future expense reported?
• Ford Credit interest income and interest expense are integral to
business operations for that segment and are included in the
Ford Credit Segment
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A1
U.S. Tax Reform Questions
2017 Impact 2018 Impact
What is expected operating tax rate for 2017? What is Ford’s expected operating tax rate for 2018?
• The operating tax rate for 2017 is about 15%, consistent with prior guidance • Expected 2018FY tax rate is about 15% with an ongoing rate of about 18%
Will Ford incur a one-time charge for deferred taxes and repatriation of Will Ford be subject to the Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (“BEAT”)?
earnings? • Uncertain, but we expect we could mitigate any impact through restructuring
• No; we do not expect the impact to be material for 2017 with a modest tax Will Ford be negatively impacted by limits on deductions of net interest
charge for mandatory repatriation and modest tax benefit for setting expense?
deferred taxes to the new rate • No. Ford (with Ford Credit) has net interest income, not net interest expense
Won’t Ford have a large write-down of deferred tax assets? Will tax reform reduce Ford’s cash taxes?
• No. A substantial part of Ford’s net deferred tax assets (net of liabilities) are • Ford’s carryover tax credits provide a significant tax shield that will last many
research tax credit and foreign tax credit carryovers that are retained dollar- years at the lower 21% tax rate. Ford will not see reduced cash taxes in the
for-dollar under the new law and do not have to be written down. The near term
remainder of Ford’s U.S. deferred taxes net to a small deferred liability that Will employees be given pay increase or bonuses as a result of tax reform?
will produce a modest benefit when reset at 21%
• No. Bonuses will continue to be tied to Company performance for key metrics.
Will some of Ford’s tax credit carryovers expire unused at a 21% tax rate? Will Cash flow benefits are longer term due to the availability of carryover tax
Ford record a valuation allowance against these credits? credits
• Our analysis is still in progress but we expect to be able to use all available tax Will Ford bring a lot of cash back to the U.S.?
credits before they expire
• No significant remittance is expected; 90% of Automotive Cash is held by
Do you expect a large profit and cash impact for mandatory repatriation of consolidated entities domiciled in the U.S.
previously untaxed non-U.S. earnings?
Will tax reform impact Ford Credit distributions to Auto?
• No. We expect a modest tax liability that will be offset with tax credit
• A lower tax rate on net deferred tax liabilities for leasing will support a higher
carryovers
distribution
What are implications of lower tax rate on Ford’s dividend to shareholders?
• We target a distribution payout of 40%-50% of prior-year net income,
excluding pension and OPEB remeasurement gains / losses and tax-only
special items. The lower tax rate will have a favorable effect on net income
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A2
Company Net Income Reconciliation To
Adjusted Pre-Tax Profit
(Bils) Memo:
FY Preliminary
2015 2016 Prelim. 2017 4Q 2017
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A3
Company Earnings Per Share Reconciliation To
Adjusted Earnings Per Share
Memo:
FY Preliminary
2015 2016 Prelim. 2017 4Q 2017
Diluted After-Tax Results (Bils)
Diluted after-tax results (GAAP) $ 7.4 $ 4.6 $ 7.8 $ 2.6
Less: Impact of pre-tax and tax special items (0.3) (2.5) 0.7 1.0
Adjusted net income – diluted (Non-GAAP) $ 7.7 $ 7.1 $ 7.1 $ 1.6
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A4
Company Effective Tax Rate Reconciliation To
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate
Memo:
FY Preliminary
2015 2016 Prelim. 2017 4Q 2017
Pre-Tax Results (Bils)
Income before income taxes (GAAP) $ 10.3 $ 6.8 $ 8.1 $ 1.9
Less: Impact of special items (0.5) (3.6) (0.3) 0.2
Adjusted pre-tax profit (Non-GAAP) $ 10.8 $ 10.4 $ 8.4 $ 1.7
Taxes (Bils)
Provision for income taxes (GAAP) $ (2.9) $ (2.2) $ (0.3) $ 0.7
Less: Impact of special items 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
Adjusted provision for income taxes (Non-GAAP) $ (3.1) $ (3.3) $ (1.3) $ (0.2)
44
A5
Company Net Income Reconciliation To
Adjusted EBIT
(Bils) Memo:
FY Preliminary
2015 2016 Prelim. 2017 4Q 2017
45
A6
Automotive Operating Margin Reconciliation To
Company EBIT Margin
Memo:
FY Preliminary
2015 2016 Prelim. 2017 4Q 2017
EBIT (Bils)
Automotive segment $ 10.0 $ 10.1 $ 8.1 $ 1.6
All other activities 1.6 1.3 1.6 0.4
Total Company $ 11.6 $ 11.3 $ 9.6 $ 2.0
Revenue (Bils)
Automotive segment $ 140.6 $ 141.5 $ 145.7 $ 38.5
All other activities 9.0 10.3 11.1 2.8
Total Company $ 149.6 $ 151.8 $ 156.8 $ 41.3
Margins (Pct)
Automotive Operating Margin* 7.1% 7.1% 5.5% 4.3%
Company EBIT Margin 7.8% 7.5% 6.1% 4.9%
$
Company Company Adjusted Adjusted Automotive Segment Automotive Segment
Revenue Pre-Tax Results* EPS* EPS Operating Margin Operating Cash Flow
(GAAP) (Non-GAAP) (Non-GAAP) (GAAP) (GAAP) (GAAP)