ALL Notes Economics Latest
ALL Notes Economics Latest
ALL Notes Economics Latest
Engineering Economics
Sushil Rijal
me.sushilrijal
@gmail.com
Economics
• Economics is science of wealth. – Adam Smith
• Economics is on one side study of wealth; and on the
other side a study of human welfare based on
wealth. - Marshall
• Economics is the social science that examines how
people choose to use limited or scarce resources in
attempting to satisfy unlimited wants. –N. Gregory
Mankiw
• Economics is a science which studies human
behavior as a relationship between ends and scarce
means which have alternative uses. – Lionell Robbins
Engineering Economics
• Engineering economics is the application of
economic techniques to the evaluation of design
and engineering alternatives. – Dr. John M.Watts
• The analysis of events and transaction that affects the cash position
of company is termed as cash flow.
• Cash flow is the net amount of cash and cash-equivalents being
transferred into and out of a business.
• Positive cash flow/ Cash inflows indicates that a company is adding
to its cash reserves.
• Negative cash flow/ Cash outflows indicates cash outgoing from the
firm or project.
Cash Flow Diagram The Picture should show
the following
1. A time interval divided
into appropriate no of
periods
2. All Cash flow
3. Interest rate
1 2 3
i%
P (Investment)
MAJOR PRINCIPLES OF ENGINEERING ECONOMICS
How we take decisions?
•I = ?
Comparison of Simple and Compound
Interest , P= $1000, i=8%. N =3 years
Nominal Interest rate and Effective Interest
rate
• Interest rate 10% compounded Semiannually (nominal
interest rate)
• Interest rate semiannually = 10%/2
• = 5%
If P =1000
Find Accumulated Amount after
1 year?
Nominal interest rate ?
• In general, interest charged or earned on the principal amount is
quoted as ' i % compounded annually or i % per year’.
• Very often, the interest period or time between successive
compounding, is less than year
• For example, if the interest rate is 6% per six month, it is customary
to quote this rate as '12% compounded semi-annually.
• The basic annual interest rate, 12% in this case, is known as
nominal interest rate and denoted by 'r'.
Effective Interest rate
• The actual or exact rate of interest rate earned on the principal during
one year is known as effective interest rate and dented by 'i’.
Some problems
Question1: Suppose that you invest $1,000 for 1 year at
18% compounded monthly. How much interest would you
earn?
Question 2:
Suppose your savings account pays 9% interest
compounded quarterly. If you deposit $10,000 for one
year, how much would you have at the end of the year ?
Cont…
Practice problem
THANK YOU !!
Basic Methodologies of
Engineering Economics Analysis
and Risk Analysis
Sushil Rijal
MARR (Minimum Acceptable/Attractive Rate of Return)
• MARR is that interest rate at which an investor can accept to earn or borrow money easily.
MARR is determined by top management from policy level. So, it may be different from time
to time and firm to firm.
MARR is determined by taking into numerous considerations. They are:
• The amount of money available for investment, and the source and cost of these funds (i.e.
equity funds and borrowed funds).
• The number of good projects available for investment and their purpose
• The amount of perceived risk that is associated with investment opportunities
• The type of organization involved (i.e., government, public utility, or competitive industry).
• MARR gov < MARR public < MARR private
Methods of Engineering Economic
Analysis
Pay Back Period Method
• Payback period is defined as the number of years required to
recover the initial investment.
• It focus on liquidity i.e. how fast an initial investment can be
recovered (easy recovery). It is not measure of profitability.
• It does not consider cash flows of entire life of project. i.e. ignores
cash flow information after payback period.
• Initial Investment = 10,000. Annual cash inflow = 5,000. Annual cash outflow
= 3,000. Standard Payback Period = 4 years
AW = R - E - CR
where R = Annual equivalents receipts or savings, E = annual equivalent expenses,
CR = Capital Recovery Cost.
• If CR = R - E
i.e. Capital to be recovered per year = net annual cash flow. No gain/No loss.
If CR < R - E
i.e. Capital to be recovered per year < net annual cash flow. There is gain.
If CR > R - E
i.e. Capital to be recovered per year > net annual cash flow. There is loss.
Numerical
• The initial investment is Rs. 25,000, and salvage value is 10% of the initial investment
at the end of its useful life 10 years. Annual revenue and expenses are Rs 14,000 and
Rs. 10,000 respectively. Evaluate the investment proposal by EW (FW/PW/AW)
methods. MARR = 10%.
Rationale for the EW Method
EW=0 → Project’s inflows are “exactly sufficient to repay
the invested capital and provide the required rate of
return.”
• Choose between mutually exclusive projects on basis of higher Worth/
Value( Future Worth/ Present Worth / Annual worth )
18
Rate of Return
Rate of Return Method
• If the return on investment is expressed in terms of rate of
return or percentage, even common layman can readily
understand.
• In this method, the interest is found out that equates the
equivalent worth of an all cash inflows (receipts or
savings) and cash outflows (investment and expenditure).
• In other word IRR is the interest rate at which given cash
flow becomes zero. IRR can be found out by any of EW
(PW or FW or AW) Method.
• Once IRR is computed, it is compared with MARR.
If IRR ≥ MARR, Accept the project,
If IRR < MARR, Rejected the project
NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV)
• Net present value (NPV) is the difference between the present value
of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows over a period
of time.
• Net Present Value (NPV) is the value of all future cash flows (positive and
negative) over the entire life of an investment discounted to the present.
• NPV analysis is a form of intrinsic valuation and is used extensively
across finance and accounting for determining the value of a business,
investment security, capital project, new venture, cost reduction program,
and anything that involves cash flow.
NPV=TVECF−TVIC
where:
TVECF=Today’s value of the expected cash flows
TVIC=Today’s value of invested cash
-1000
PV(1)
PV(2)
PV(3)
PV(4)
NPV = $0.00
Disadvantages of IRR
• The IRR method assumes that the recovered funds, if not consumed at the end of the year,
are reinvested at IRR rather than at MARR. Greater the IRR, at much higher rate of return, it
may not be practically possible to reinvest net cash proceeds from the project within the firm.
• IRR may not be uniquely defined. There is possibility of multiple rate of return, in case of non-
simple investment (i.e. cash flow stream of a project has more than one changes in sign).
• Find the IRR for the following cashflow:
EOY 0 1 2
Cashflow -1,600 +10,000 -10,000
Disadvantages of IRR
• When choosing among mutually exclusive projects, IRR may be
misleading:
External Rate of Return (ERR) or Modified IRR
• The ERR method takes into account the external reinvestment rate (Ԑ) at which net cash flows
generated (or required) by the project over its life can be reinvested (or borrowed) outside the
firm.
• (∑ PW of negative net cash flows at Ԑ%) * (1+ERR)^N = (∑ FW of positive net cash flows at Ԑ%).
•
Since, ERR (35.91%) > MARR (30%),
Accept the project.
Benefit/ Cost Ratio (BCR)
• Benefit Cost Relation is a special tool of cost Benefit analysis (CBA) and it is used to evaluate
public sector projects, although it can be extended to any private sector projects.
• B/C ratio can be defined as the ratio of the equivalent worth of benefits to the equivalent
worth of costs.
For PSc, we focus on PV only
Also compare the projects with both type of Pay back periods
if Standard payback is 4 years
Rate of Return Method and BCR Method
Steps for Incremental Analysis
Rate of Return Method and BCR Method
Capitalized worth and Externalities
• Capitalized worth is the present worth of an alternative for overall study period.
• CW method is introduced as a special case of PW criterion when revenue and expenses
occur over an infinite length of time.
• Perpetuity: Infinite annuity is called perpetuity.
• CW(i%) = A/I
Externalities
• An externality is referred to as an external effect, is a special class of goods which is not
deliberately created by project sponsor but is an incidental outcome of legitimate
economic activity.
Positive /Negative externalities:
• The approach road built by a company may improve the transport of that area.
• Nearly constructed airport will increase the sound level of surrounding
Some Qns
1. Benefit cost ratio is the ratio of
• A) PVB/PVC B) PVC/PVB c) FVB/FVC d) FVC/FVB
2. the average cost incurred in supplying a particular benefit over the
entire life time of the project is
A) project cost b) Lifecycle cost
c) Maintenance cost d) none
3. Find the effective interest rate if 10% is compounded 3 times per year
• A) 10.11 b) 10.22 c)10.33 d)10.44
4. Find the effective interest rate if 12% is compounded quarterly
• A) 12.22 b) 12.33 c)12.44 d)12.55
Compound rate: Rate used to calculate Future value of Present cash
flow.
Discount rate: Rate used to calculate present value of series of
future cash flow. Inverse of compound rate
Accounting Rate of return
(does not consider time value of money)
• ARR = Average Income/ Average Investment
• ARR> MARR
Sensitivity Analysis
• Determining how sensitive
our NPV analysis is.
• Can be called Spider plot
• If used for infinite period, it
is called Monte Carlo
Simulation
Some Definitions
Cost Terminologies
Fixed cost:
• Cost which are associated with fixed factors of production like land, plant, building, equipment
etc.
• It remains constant in the production process for certain level of output capacity.
Variable cost:
• Cost which are associated with variable factors of production and vary with change in level of
output like labour, raw materials, fuel etc.
Total cost/ Sum cost: Sum of fixed and variable cost
Sunk cost:
• All the past cost which cannot be recovered when a firm leave from an industry.
• Cost of engineering design, wages, decoration, depreciation, registration, license etc.
Breakeven Analysis
• Break even quantity
= Fixed costs / (Sales price per unit –
Variable cost per unit)
• Total Revenue = Total cost
• Revenue sufficient to cover all expense
• Organization is neither in gain nor in loss.
Other: Export = Import; Supply = Demand;
Cost of two products being equal
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources
/knowledge/modeling/break-even-analysis/
Decision tree Analysis
COST, RISK ANAlYSIS
,RATIO & Others
SUSHIL RIJAL
Capitalized worth and Externalities
• Capitalized worth is the present worth of an alternative for overall study period.
• CW method is introduced as a special case of PW criterion when revenue and expenses occur
over an infinite length of time.
• Perpetuity: Infinite annuity is called perpetuity.
CW(i%) = A/I
Externalities
• An externality is referred to as an external effect, is a special class of goods which is not
deliberately created by project sponsor but is an incidental outcome of legitimate economic
activity.
Positive /Negative externalities:
• The approach road built by a company may improve the transport of that area.
• Nearly constructed airport will increase the sound level of surrounding
Some Qns
1. Benefit cost ratio is the ratio of
A) PVB/PVC B) PVC/PVB c) FVB/FVC d) FVC/FVB
2. the average cost incurred in supplying a particular benefit over the entire life time of the
project is
A) project cost b) Lifecycle cost
c) Maintenance cost d) none
3. Find the effective interest rate if 10% is compounded 3 times per year
A) 10.11 b) 10.22 c)10.33 d)10.44
4. Find the effective interest rate if 12% is compounded quarterly
A) 12.22 b) 12.33 c)12.44 d)12.55
Compound rate: Rate used to calculate Future value of Present cash flow.
Discount rate: Rate used to calculate present value of series of future cash flow. Inverse of
compound rate
Accounting Rate of return
(does not consider time value of money)
ARR = Average Income/ Average Investment
ARR> MARR
Sensitivity Analysis
• Determining how sensitive
our NPV analysis is.
• Can be called Spider plot
• If used for infinite period, it
is called Monte Carlo
Simulation
Some Definitions
Cost Terminologies
Fixed cost:
• Cost which are associated with fixed factors of production like land, plant, building, equipment etc.
• It remains constant in the production process for certain level of output capacity.
Variable cost:
• Cost which are associated with variable factors of production and vary with change in level of
output like labour, raw materials, fuel etc.
Total cost/ Sum cost: Sum of fixed and variable cost
Sunk cost:
• All the past cost which cannot be recovered when a firm leave from an industry.
• Cost of engineering design, wages, decoration, depreciation, registration, license etc.
Breakeven Analysis
• Break even quantity
= Fixed costs / (Sales price per unit –
Variable cost per unit)
• Total Revenue = Total cost
• Revenue sufficient to cover all expense
• Organization is neither in gain nor in loss.
Other: Export = Import; Supply = Demand;
Cost of two products being equal
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources
/knowledge/modeling/break-even-analysis/
Decision tree Analysis
COST
Q. The benefit that is forgone by engaging the resource in a chosen activity instead of engaging
the same resource in forgone activity is known as:
A)Marginal cost, B)Opportunity cost,
C) Incremental cost D) Life cycle cost
Marginal Cost: The cost of producing one more unit of good
Opportunity cost: Opportunity costs represent the potential benefits an individual, investor, or
business misses out on when choosing one alternative over another
Element of cost
Cont…
➢Material; the substance from which a product is made is known as material.
It may be in a raw or a manufacture state.
➢Labour; For conversion of material into finish goods, human effort is needed
and such human effort is called labour.
➢Expenses; these include cost of special design, drawing, layout, cost of
purchase or hire of tools and plants for a particular job and maintenance of
such tools and equipment etc.
➢Types of cost
➢Direct cost; Direct costs are those costs that can be identified specifically with a
particular project, or that can be directly assigned to such activities relatively
easily with a high degree of accuracy.
➢Indirect cost; Indirect Costs are those that are incurred for common or joint
objectives and therefore cannot be identified readily and specifically with a
particular project.
Classification of cost
Q. What is defined as the reduction or fall of the value of an asset due to constant use and
passage of time? Depletion, Inflation, Depreciation, Deflation
Some Definitions
Any assets will have following cost components:
i) Capital recovery cost – Earning back of the initial funds.
ii) Average operating and maintenance cost
iii) Total cost
The point where the total cost is minimum is called economic life of machine.
Economic life is the period of time that results in the minimum equivalent uniform annual cost of owning and
operating an asset.
Life cycle cost: Sum of all expenditure associated with the project during its entire service life.
i) First cost: Land, Design and development, Building, Machine and installation, Training and special tooling,
Supporting equipment, computer and transportation, Manufacturing and fabrication cost etc.
ii) Operating and Maintenance cost: Labour, Material, Overhead, Transportation etc.
iii) Disposal cost: Labour for removal, Material, Transportation for disposal.
Marginal cost/ Incremental cost: Marginal cost is the change in the total cost that arises when the quantity produced is
incremented by one unit; that is, it is the cost of producing one more unit of a good.
Marginal revenue: The change in total revenue due to one extra unit of quantity sold.
Some Definitions
Salvage Value:
It is the estimated value of the property at the end of its useful life or recovery period. It is the expected selling
price of a property when the asset can no longer be used productively by its owner.
Market value:
The amount that will be paid by a willing buyer to a willing seller for a property where each has equal
advantage and it is under no compulsion to buy or sell.
Scrap value/Residual value/Break-up value:
Scrap value is the worth of a physical asset's individual components when the asset itself is deemed no longer
usable.
The main difference between scrap and salvage is that a salvage vehicle has the potential to be
repaired and then returned to the road. Whereas a scrap vehicle cannot be returned to the road and
will be crushed and sold for materials.
Cash cost and Book cost: Cost that involves payment of cash from is called cash cost. Cost
that doesn’t involve cash transaction but is reflected in the accounting system is called book
cost or non-cash cost. Eg. Depreciation charge of equipment.
Job (Specific order) Costing:Job costing refers to calculating the cost of a special contract,
work order where work is performed as per client’s or customer’s instruction or specification.
• Eg. Building construction, Furniture etc.
Process costing: It refers to costing of one or more processes involved while converting a
raw material to finished output.
• This method is used where it is not possible to trace the items of prime cost to a particular
order, because its identity is lost.
• Eg. Chemical plant, Oil refining, dairy etc.
•Uniqueness of product. Job costing is used for unique products, and process costing is used
for standardized products.
•Size of job. Job costing is used for very small production runs, and process costing is used for
large production runs.
Cont..
Job costing Process costing
Capital:
• Factors of production
• Term for describing wealth.
• Man-made factor that contribute to the production of goods and services.
• Non-human ingredients that contribute to the production of goods and services including land,
buildings, raw and semi-finished materials, finished product, inventories etc.
Assets = Liabilities + Owner's Equity (Capital)
When a business is put up, its resources (assets) come from two sources: contributions by owners (capital) and those acquired
from creditors or lenders (liabilities).
The fund invested by the owner in the business or the net amount claimable by the owner from the
business is known as the Capital or Owner's Equity or Net Worth
Some Definitions
Asset: Tangible assets vs Non tangible assets
Tangible asset
Fixed assets: Physical or infrastructure assets which are not intended for resale in the normal course of
business and provide benefit over a long period of time to the business. Ex. Land and Building, Equipment,
Furniture, Vehicles etc.
Current asset: The assets which are in the form of cash or can be converted into cash within a year. Ex.
Cash in hand, cash in bank, bill receivable, inventories, marketable securities, accrued income etc.
Non tangible : Goodwill, Trademark, copyrights
Liabilities: Liabilities are borrowed debts and payable obligation of organization.
• Long term Liabilities: Raised for more than one year. Bond/Debenture, Bank loan etc.
• Current (Short term) Liabilities: To be repaid within one year. Bill payable, advance income etc. A liability
is considered current if it is due within 12 months after the end of the balance sheet date
Utility : Satisfaction that the consumer derived from the good and service consumed. Measure
of satisfaction
Sunk cost: Capital already invested that for some reason cannot be retrieved. Expense which
has happened in the past. No relevance to alternatives being considered.
Law of Diminishing..
Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility:
According to Marshall: The additional benefit which a person
derives from an increase of his stock of a thing diminishes with the
growth of the stock that he already has.
Law of Diminishing Returns:
It states that when more and more units of variable input are
applied to a given quantity of fixed inputs, the total output may
initially increase and then will be constant and it will eventually
decrease.
Market and Law of Demand
A market is a group of buyers and sellers of a particular good or service.
The buyers as a group determine the demand for the product, and the
sellers as a group determine the supply of the product.
The quantity demanded of any good is the amount of the good that
buyers are willing and able to purchase.
Law of demand:
Other things being equal, when the price of a good rises, the quantity
demanded of the good falls, and when the price falls, the quantity
demanded rises.
demand schedule : a table that shows the relationship between the
price of a good and the quantity demanded
Demand curve & Schedule
Law of Supply
Other things being equal, when the price of a good rises, the quantity supplied of the
good also rises, and when the price falls, the quantity supplied falls as well.
Equilibrium of Supply and Demand
Shifts in
Price of commodity
Demand/ Factors affecting Qd
Income of Consumer
Price of related goods
Change in Taste
Weather
Future Expectations
Nos of Buyers
Shifts vs movement
Elasticity
Elasticity is a measure of how much buyers and sellers respond to changes in market conditions
a measure of how much
the quantity demanded
of a good responds to a
change in the price of
that good, computed as
the percentage change
in quantity demanded
divided by the percentage
change in price.
Necessities??
THANK YOU !!
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/
finance/financial-ratios/
Engineering Economics
MCQ
Collection by Sushil Rijal
questions
• In a cash-flow diagram:
(A) Time 0 is considered to be the present
(B) Time 1 is considered to be the end of time period 1
(C) A vertical arrow pointing up indicates a positive cash flow
(D) All of these
Cost that are not borne by the parties to the economic….. Are called
externalities..
a) Gain b)transaction c)transfer d)loss
• In the process of selecting public project the criterial usually adopted
are
a) Economic evaluation b) financial evaluation c) both
• The benefit cost ratio is
A. Directly proportional to discount rate
B. Inversely proportional to discount rate
C. No any relation with discount rate
D. All of the above
• Q. If one has deposited Rs. 10,000 in bank and pay Rs 11025 after one year,
the interest rate could be…
A10% compounded semiannually
B 10.25% annually
C Both of above
D None of above
Q. Which of the following is not direct cost for the project
a) Wages of labor b) cost of materials c) insurance costs d) sub contract cost
• Q. The numerical value of MARR is
A. Equal to IRR
B. Less than IRR
C. Greater than IRR
D. All of the above
• Q. IRR should be…
A. Less than borrowing rate
B. More than borrowing rate
C. Equal to borrowing rate
D. All of the above
Qn. In case of construction industry, the cost of material is normally
• A) more than cost of labour
• B) equal to
• C) less than
2.The difference between actual cost of the project with
standard/targeted cost is called…..
3. For selection of any project the NPV should be…
Thank you