Cebu Institute of Technology - University

Department of industrial engineering

MODULE 3
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
ONE SAMPLE
Prepared by: Engr. Kristan Ian D. Cabaña
 OUTLINE

• Hypothesis Testing Methodology

• Tests on the Mean of a Normal Distribution, Variance Known
• Tests on the Mean of a Normal Distribution, Variance
Unknown
• Tests on the Variance and Standard Deviation of a Normal
Distribution
• Tests on Population Proportion
 INTRODUCTION TO
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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HYPOTHESIS TESTING

A hypothesis test is a process that uses sample statistics to test a

claim about the value of a population parameter.
If a manufacturer of rechargeable batteries claims that the batteries they produce
are good for an average of at least 1,000 charges, a sample would be taken to test
this claim.

A verbal statement, or claim, about a population parameter is called a

statistical hypothesis.
To test the average of 1000 hours, a pair of hypotheses are stated – one that
represents the claim and the other, its complement. When one of these
hypotheses is false, the other must be true.
 THE NULL AND
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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STARTING A HYPOTHESIS
“H subzero” or “H naught”
A null hypothesis H0 is a statistical hypothesis that contains a statement
of equality such as £, =, or ³.
“H sub-a”
An alternative hypothesis Ha is the complement of the null hypothesis.
It is a statement that must be true if H0 is false and contains a
statement of inequality such as >, ¹, or <.

To write the null and alternative hypotheses, translate the claim made
about the population parameter from a verbal statement to a
mathematical statement.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE #1

Write the claim as a mathematical sentence. State the null and

alternative hypotheses and identify which represents the claim.
A manufacturer claims that its rechargeable batteries have an
average life of at least 1,000 charges.
µ ³ 1000
H0: µ ³ 1000 (Claim) Condition of
equality
Ha: µ < 1000
Complement of the
null hypothesis
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE #2

Write the claim as a mathematical sentence. State the null and

alternative hypotheses and identify which represents the claim.
Statesville college claims that 94% of their graduates find
employment within six months of graduation.
p = 0.94
H0: p = 0.94 (Claim) Condition of
equality
Ha: p ¹ 0.94
Complement of the
null hypothesis
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE #3

State the null and alternative hypotheses and identify which

represents the claim.
A company has stated that their straw machine makes straws that
are 4mm diameter. A worker believes that the machine no longer
makes straws of this size and samples 100 straws to perform a
hypothesis test with 99% confidence.

H0: µ = 4mm (Claim) The mean diameter of the straws is 4mm.

Ha: µ ≠ 4mm The mean diameter of the straws is not 4mm.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE #3

State the null and alternative hypotheses and identify which

represents the claim.

Doctors believe that the average teen sleeps on average no longer

than 10 hours per day. A researcher believes that teens on average
sleep longer.

H0: µ ≤ 10 hours (Claim) The average time teen sleeps is no longer

than 10 hours.

Ha: µ > 10 hours The average time teen sleeps is longer than
10 hours.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE #3

State the null and alternative hypotheses and identify which

represents the claim.

The school board claims that at least 60% of students bring a phone
to school. A teacher believes this number is too high and randomly
samples 25 students to test at a level of significance of 0.02.

H0: p ≥ 60% (Claim) The proportion of students who brings a

phone to school is at least 60%.

Ha: p < 60% The proportion of students who does not

bring a phone to school is less than 60%.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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KEY POINTS

• The null hypothesis H0 represents the status quo or the current belief in a situation.
• The alternative hypothesis H1 is the opposite of the null hypothesis and represents a
research claim or specific inference you would like to prove.
• If you reject the null hypothesis, you have statistical proof that the alternative
hypothesis is correct.
• If you do not reject the null hypothesis, then you have failed to prove the alternative
hypothesis. The failure to prove the alternative hypothesis, however, does not mean
that that you have proven the null hypothesis.
• The null hypothesis H0 always refers to a specified value of the population parameter
(such as µ), not a sample statistic (such as X).
• The statement of the null hypothesis always contains an equal sign regarding the
specified value of the population parameter.
• The statement of the alternative hypothesis never contains an equal sign regarding
the specified value of the population parameter.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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KEY POINTS

NULL HYPOTHESIS
The goal of the researcher is to “disprove or
nullify” the Null Hypothesis through testing
a new claim (Alternative Hypothesis) hence
why its named that way.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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REGIONS OF REJECTION AND NON-REJECTION

The region of rejection consists of the values of the test statistic that are
unlikely to occur if the null hypothesis is true. These values are more
likely to occur if the null hypothesis is false. Therefore, if a value of the
test statistic falls into this rejection region, you reject the null hypothesis
because that value is unlikely if the null hypothesis is true.

Critical Value divides the nonrejection region from the rejection region.
The size of the rejection region is directly related to the risks involved in
using only a sample evidence to make decisions about a population
parameter.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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TYPES OF ERRORS

No matter which hypothesis represents the claim, always begin

the hypothesis test assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

At the end of the test, one of two decisions will be made:

1. reject the null hypothesis, or
2. fail to reject the null hypothesis.
A TYPE I ERROR occurs if the null hypothesis is rejected when it is true and
should not be rejected. The probability of a type I error occurring is α.
A TYPE II ERROR occurs if the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is false
and should be rejected. The probability of a type II error occurring is β .
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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TYPES OF ERRORS

Level of Significance (α). It is the maximum allowable probability of committing a Type I error.
Confidence Coefficient (1 – α). It is the complement of the probability of a Type I error. When
multiplied by 100%, the confidence coefficient yields the confidence level that was studied when
constructing confidence intervals.
Power of a Test (1 – β). It is the complement of the probability of a Type II error. It is the probability
that you will reject the null hypothesis when in fact it is false and should be rejected.
 H0: The man is not capable of pregnancy. H0: The woman is pregnant.

Null Hypothesis is True Null Hypothesis is False

Reject Null Hypothesis Type I Error (False Positive) Correct! (True Positive)
Do not reject null hypothesis Correct! (True Negative) Type II Error (False Negative)
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Statesville college claims that 94% of their graduates find employment
within six months of graduation. What will a type I or type II error be?
H0: p = 0.94 (Claim)
Ha: p ¹ 0.94
A type I error is rejecting the null when it is true.
The population proportion is actually 0.94, but is
rejected. (We believe it is not 0.94.)
A type II error is failing to reject the null when it is false.
The population proportion is not 0.94, but is not rejected.
(We believe it is 0.94.)
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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STATISTICAL TESTS
After stating the null and alternative hypotheses and specifying the
level of significance, a random sample is taken from the population
and sample statistics are calculated.
The statistic that is compared with the parameter in the null
hypothesis is called the test statistic.
Population Test Standardized test
parameter statistic statistic
µ x z (n ³ 30)
t (n < 30)
p p̂ z
s2 s2 X2
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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P-VALUES

If the null hypothesis is true, a P-value (or probability value) of a

hypothesis test is the probability of obtaining a sample statistic
with a value as extreme or more extreme than the one
determined from the sample data.

The P-value of a hypothesis test depends on the nature of the

test.

There are three types of hypothesis tests – a left-, right-, or two-

tailed test. The type of test depends on the region of the
sampling distribution that favors a rejection of H0. This region is
indicated by the alternative hypothesis.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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TYPES OF HYPOTHESIS TESTS

1. If the alternative hypothesis contains the less-than inequality
symbol (<), the hypothesis test is a left-tailed test.

H0 : µ ³ k
Ha : µ < k

P is the area to
the left of the
test statistic.

z
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Test
statistic
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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TYPES OF HYPOTHESIS TESTS

2. If the alternative hypothesis contains the greater-than symbol (>),

the hypothesis test is a right-tailed test.

H0 : µ £ k
Ha : µ > k

P is the area to
the right of the
test statistic.

z
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Test
statistic
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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TYPES OF HYPOTHESIS TESTS

3. If the alternative hypothesis contains the not-equal-to symbol (¹),
the hypothesis test is a two-tailed test. In a two-tailed test, each
tail has an area of P.
H0 : µ = k
Ha : µ ¹ k
P is twice the
P is twice the area to the right
area to the left of the positive
of the negative test statistic.
test statistic.

z
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Test Test
statistic statistic
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

For each claim, state H0 and Ha. Then determine whether the
hypothesis test is a left-tailed, right-tailed, or two-tailed test.

a.) A cigarette manufacturer claims that less than one-eighth of the

US adult population smokes cigarettes.
H0: p ³ 0.125
Ha: p < 0.125 (Claim) Left-tailed test
b.) A local telephone company claims that the average length of
a phone call is 8 minutes.
H0: µ = 8 (Claim)
H a: µ ¹ 8 Two-tailed test
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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MAKING DECISION
Decision Rule Based on P-value
To use a P-value to make a conclusion in a hypothesis test, compare the
P-value with a.
1. If P £ a, then reject H0.
2. If P > a, then fail to reject H0.

Claim
Decision Claim is H0 Claim is Ha
There is enough evidence to There is enough evidence to
Reject H0 reject the claim. support the claim.
There is not enough evidence There is not enough evidence
Do not reject H0 to reject the claim. to support the claim.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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STEPS FOR HYPOTHESIS TESTING

1. State the claim mathematically and verbally. Identify the null and
alternative hypotheses.
2. Specify the level of significance, type of test and sample size.
3. Select the appropriate test statistic and identify the critical value.
4. Determine the rejection region. Create a sketch of the distribution
model.
5. Calculate the standardized test statistic. Add it to your sketch.
6. State the statistical decision.
7. State the managerial conclusion.
TESTS ON THE MEAN OF A
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
VARIANCE IS KNOWN
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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Z-TEST FOR THE MEAN

The z-test for the mean is a statistical test for a population mean. The
z-test can be used when the population is normal and variance is
known, or for any population when the sample size n is at least 30.
& and the standardized test
The sample statistic is the sample mean 𝑿
statistic is z.

𝑋# − 𝜇 𝜎
𝑍=𝜎 𝜎"! =
' 𝑛 𝑛
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

A manufacturer claims that its rechargeable

batteries are good for an average of more than 1,000
charges. A random sample of 100 batteries has a
mean life of 1002 charges and a standard deviation
of 14. Is there enough evidence to support this claim
at 0.01 level of significance?
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 1: State the null and alternative hypotheses.
H0: µ ≤ 1000 charges
(The rechargeable batteries have a mean life of at most 1000 charges.)
Ha: µ > 1000 charges
(The rechargeable batteries have a mean life of more than 1000 charges.)

STEP 2: Choose the level of significance, type of test, and sample size.
Level of significance, α = 0.01 ; Right-Tailed Test; n = 100 batteries
STEP 3: Identify the critical value of the test statistic.
Test Statistic, 𝑍! = +2.33
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 4: Determine the rejection region.

The rejection region is to the right

of the Test Statistic, Z.
P-value = 1 – 0.923641 = 0.0764
z
0 Z = 1.43

STEP 5: Calculate the standardized test statistic.

𝑋( = 1002 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑠 (
)*+ -../*-...
𝜎 = 14 𝑍!"#!$#"%&' = ! = #$ = 1.4286
𝑛 = 100 𝑏𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 , " , #%%
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 6: State the Decision Rule.

Using the standardized and critical values of the test statistic.

|𝑍!"#!$#"%&' | ≥ |𝑍!()%)!"# | : Reject H0
|𝑍!"#!$#"%&' | < |𝑍!()%)!"# | : Do not reject H0
|𝑍! = 1.43| < |𝑍% = 2.33| : Do not reject H0

Using the P-value.

𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 ≤ 𝛼 : Reject H0
𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 > 𝛼 : Do not reject H0
𝑃 = 0.0764 > 𝛼 = 0.01 : Do not reject H0
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

STEP 7: State the managerial decision.

At the 1% level of significance, there is no enough evidence to support

the claim that the rechargeable battery has an average life greater than
1000 charges.
TESTS ON THE MEAN OF A
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
VARIANCE IS UNKNOWN
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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t-TEST FOR THE MEAN

The t-test for the mean is a statistical test for a population mean. The
t-test can be used when the population is normal and variance is
unknown, or for any population when the sample size n is less than 30.
& and the standardized test
The sample statistic is the sample mean 𝑿
statistic is t.

𝑋# − 𝜇
𝑡= 𝑠
' 𝑛
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

A local telephone company claims that the average

length of a phone call is 8 minutes. In a random
sample of 18 phone calls, the sample mean was
7.8 minutes and the standard deviation was
0.5 minutes. Is there enough evidence to support
this claim at α = 0.05?
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 1: State the null and alternative hypotheses.
H0: µ = 8 minutes
(The mean length of a phone call is 8 minutes.)
Ha: µ ¹ 8 minutes
(The mean length of a phone call is not 8 minutes.)

STEP 2: Choose the level of significance, type of test, and sample size.
Level of significance, α = 0.05 ; Two-Tailed Test; n = 18 phone calls
STEP 3: Identify the critical value of the test statistic.
Degree of Freedom, df = 18 – 1 = 17; Test Statistic, 𝑡!⁄" = ± 2.110
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 4: Determine the rejection region.

Rejection Region Rejection Region

z
t = -2.110 0 t = +2.110

STEP 5: Calculate the standardized test statistic.

𝑋( = 7.8 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑠 (
)*+ 0.2*2
𝑠 = 0.5 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑡!"#!$#"%&' = & = %.( = −1.6971
𝑛 = 18 𝑝ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 , " , #)
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 6: State the Decision Rule.

Using the standardized and critical values of the test statistic.

|𝑡!"#!$#"%&' | ≥ |𝑡!()%)!"# | : Reject H0
|𝑡!"#!$#"%&' | < |𝑡!()%)!"# | : Do not reject H0
|𝑡! = −1.6971| < |𝑡% = ±2.110| : Do not reject H0

Using the P-value.

𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 ≤ 𝛼 : Reject H0
𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 > 𝛼 : Do not reject H0
𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 > 𝛼 = 0.05 : Do not reject H0
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

STEP 7: State the managerial decision.

At the 5% level of significance, there is no enough evidence to reject

the claim that the average length of a phone call is 8 minutes.
TESTS ON THE VARIANCE AND
STANDARD DEVIATION OF A
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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Chi-Squared TEST FOR THE

VARIANCE & STANDARD DEVIATION

The chi-squared test for the variance and standard deviation is a

statistical test for a population variance or standard deviation.

The sample statistic is the sample variance and sample standard

deviation, 𝑆 # 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆 and the standardized test statistic is 𝑋 #.

#
#
(𝑛 − 1)𝑠
𝑋 =
𝜎#
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

An automated filling machine is used to fill bottles with

liquid detergent. A random sample of 20 bottles results in a
sample variance of fill volume of s2 = 0.0153 (fluid ounces)2.
If the variance of fill volume exceeds 0.01 (fluid ounces)2, an
unacceptable proportion of bottles will be underfilled or
overfilled. Is there evidence in the sample data to suggest
that the manufacturer has a problem with underfilled or
overfilled bottles? Use α = 0.05 and assume that fill volume
has a normal distribution.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 1: State the null and alternative hypotheses.
H0: 𝝈𝟐 ≤ 0.01
(The variance of fill volume is at most 0.01.)
Ha: 𝝈𝟐 > 0.01
(The variance of fill volume is greater than 0.01.)

STEP 2: Choose the level of significance, type of test, and sample size.
Level of significance, α = 0.05 ; Right-Tailed Test; n= 20 bottles
STEP 3: Identify the critical value of the test statistic.
Degree of Freedom, df = 20 – 1 = 19; Test Statistic, 𝑋 # ! = 30.14
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 4: Determine the rejection region.

Rejection Region

X2
30.14

STEP 5: Calculate the standardized test statistic.

/
𝑠 # = 0.0153
/
(𝑛 − 1)𝑠 (20 − 1)(0.0153)
𝑛 = 20 𝑏𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑋 = /
= = 29.07
𝜎 0.01
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 6: State the Decision Rule.

Using the standardized and critical values of the test statistic.

|𝑋 * !"#!$#"%&' | ≥ |𝑋 * !()%)!"# | : Reject H0
|𝑋 * !"#!$#"%&' | < |𝑋 * !()%)!"# | : Do not reject H0
|𝑋 * ! = 29.07| < |𝑋 * % = 30.14| : Do not reject H0

Using the P-value.

𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 ≤ 𝛼 : Reject H0
𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 > 𝛼 : Do not reject H0
𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 > 𝛼 = 0.05 : Do not reject H0
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

STEP 7: State the managerial decision.

At 0.05 level of significance, there is no strong evidence that the

variance of fill volume exceeds 0.01 (fluid ounces) * . So there is no
strong evidence of a problem with incorrectly filled bottles.
TESTS ON POPULATION
PROPORTION
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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Z-TEST FOR PROPORTION

The z-test for proportion is a statistical test for a population

proportion. The z-test can be used when a binomial distribution is
given such that np > 5 AND nq > 5, and that n is at least 30.

The sample statistic is the sample proportion 𝑝̂ and the standardized

test statistic is z.

𝑝̂ − 𝑝 𝑝𝑞
𝑍= 𝜎%$ =
𝜎%$ 𝑛
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

Statesville college claims that 94% of their graduates

find employment within six months of graduation.
In a sample of 500 randomly selected graduates, 485
of them were employed. Is there enough evidence
to support the college’s claim at 10% level of
significance?
Verify that the products np and nq are at least 5.
np = (500)(0.94) = 470 and nq = (500)(0.06) = 30
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 1: State the null and alternative hypotheses.
H0: p = 0.94
(The population proportion of the graduates that are employed within six
months of graduation is 94%.)
Ha: p ≠ 0.94
(The population proportion of the graduates that are employed within six
months of graduation is not 94%.)
STEP 2: Choose the level of significance, type of test, and sample size.
Level of significance, α = 0.10 ; Two-Tailed Test
STEP 3: Identify the critical value of the test statistic.
Test Statistic, 𝑍∝⁄" = +1.65
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 4: Determine the rejection region.

Rejection Region Rejection Region

z
Z = -1.65 0 Z = +1.65

STEP 5: Calculate the standardized test statistic.

3
4*4 ..60*..67
𝑧!"#!$#"%&' = = = 2.8247
5+
* (%.-$)(%.%/),
(%%
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
STEP 6: State the Decision Rule.

Using the standardized and critical values of the test statistic.

|𝑍!"#!$#"%&' | ≥ |𝑍!()%)!"# | : Reject H0
|𝑍!"#!$#"%&' | < |𝑍!()%)!"# | : Do not reject H0
|𝑍! = 2.8247| > |𝑍% = 1.65| : Reject H0

Using the P-value.

𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 ≤ 𝛼 : Reject H0
𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 > 𝛼 : Do not reject H0
𝑃 = 0.0023 < 𝛼 = 0.10 : Reject H0
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
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ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

STEP 7: State the managerial decision.

At 0.10 level of significance, there is a strong evidence that the

population proportion of the graduates that are employed within six
months of graduation is not equal to 94%.
END OF PRESENTATION