7.

1 A catchment of area 120 ha has a time of concentration of 30 min and runoff coefficient of
0.3. If a storm of duration 45 min results in 3.0 cm of rain over the catchment estimate the
resulting peak flow rate
Given:
A = 120 ha
Time of concentration = 30min
Runoff Coefficient = 0.3
Required:
If a storm of duration 45 min results in 3.0 cm of rain over the catchment estimate the resulting
peak flow rate
Solution:

Catchment area

A = 120 ha =

7.2 Information on the 50-year storm is given below.

A culvert has to drain 200 ha of land with a maximum length of travel of 1.25 km. The general
slope of the catchment is 0.001 and its runoff coefficient is 0.20. Estimate the peak flow by the
rational method for designing the culvert for a 50-year flood
Given:

Culvert drain = 200 ha

Length = 1.25km
Slope = 0.001
Runoff coefficient = 0.20
T = 50 years
Required:
Peak flow =?
Solution:

From the data maximum intensity of rainfall of 50 years return period and of duration 67.45 min
is by interpolation.

7.3 A basin is divided by 1-h isochrones into four sub-areas of size 200, 250, 350 and 170
hectares from the upstream end of the outlet respectively. A rainfall event of 5-h duration with
intensities of 1.7 cm/h for the first 2 h and 1.25 cm/h for the next 3 h occurs uniformly over the
basin. Assuming a constant runoff coefficient of 0.5, estimate the peak rate of runoff.
Required: Peak rate at runoff =?
Solution:
The contributions of the runoff would be as follows:
1st hour: 1.7 cm/h rain on A
2nd hour: 1.7 cm/h rain on B and A
3rd hour: 1.7 cm/h rain on C and B; and 1.25 cm/h rain on A
4th hour: 1.7 cm/h rain on D and C; and 1.25 cm/hr. rain on B and A
5th hour: 1.7 cm/h rain on D; and 1.25 cm/h rain on C, B and A
The discharge at the end of vatious intervals are calculated by the Rational formula.
 At the end Total Q (
of

1h 4.014 4.014
2h 4.014 8.264 12.278
3h 2.951 8.264 4.903 17.118
4h 2.951 6.076 5.903 4.722 19.652
5h 2.951 6.076 4.34 4.722 18.089

Peak rate of runoff is and occurs at the end of 4tn hour.

7.4 An urban catchment of area 3.0 km2nconsists of 52% of paved areas, 20% parks, 18%
multi-unit residential area. The remaining land use can be classified as light industrial area. The
catchment is essentially flat and has sandy soil. If the time of concentration is 50 minutes,
estimate the peak flow due to a design storm of depth 85 mm in 50 minutes.
Given:
Area = 52% 20% 18% 10%
Concentration = 0.85 0.075 0.70 0.65
Required: Peak flow
Solution:

Weighted C =
7.5 In estimating the peak discharge of a river at a location X the catchment area was divided
into four parts A, B, C and D. The time of concentration and area for different parts are
as follows:

Records of a rainstorm lasting for four hours as observed and the runoff factors during different
hours are as follows:

Calculate the maximum flow to be expected at X in m3/s assuming a constant base flow of 42.5
m3/s.
Required: Maximum Flows =?
Solution:
The peak flow from the areas:
Contributions of the various sub-areas at different times:
Time(h) Average Runoff Total Q
Intensity fator, C
of (Ord. Of
Rainfall DRH)

(mm/h)
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 25 0.5 20.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.84
2 50 0.7 58.35 26.04 0.00 0.00 84.38
3 50 0.8 66.68 72.91 34.73 0.00 174.31
4 23.5 0.85 33.30 83.32 97.23 41.66 255.51
5 41.61 111.12 116.66 269.38
6 55.49 133.32 188.81
7 66.58 66.58
8 0

Total peak flow = DRH peak + Base flow

occurs at the end of the 5th hour from the start of the storm.

7.6 A catchment area has a time of concentration of 20 minutes and an area of 20 ha. Estimate
the peak discharge corresponding to return period of 25 yrs. Assume a runoff coefficient of 0.25.
The intensity-duration-frequency for the storm in the area can be expressed by i = KTx / (D +
a)n , where i = intensity in cm/h, T = retum period in years, and D = duration of storm in hours,
with coefficients K = 6.93, x = 0.189, a = 0.50, n = 0.878.
Given:

Area A=20 ha =

T = 25 years
Duration D = time of concentration = 20 min = 0.333h
Required:
Runoff coefficient =?
Solution:

7.7 A 100 ha watershed has the following characteristics:

i. Maximum length of travel of water in the catchment = 3500 m
ii. Difference in elevation between the most remote point on the catchment and the outlet = 65m
iii. Land use/cover details:

The maximum intensity-duration-frequency relationship for the watershed is given by

where i = intensity in cm/h, T = Return period in years and D = duration of rainfall in hours.
Estimate the 25-year peak runoff from the watershed that can be expected at the outlet of the
watershed.
Required:
Peak flow=?
Solution:
Equivalent runoff coefficient

Area A = 100ha =
Time of concentration

L = 3500m and

Peak flow

7.8 A rectangular paved area 150 m × 450 m has a longitudinal drain along one of its longer
edges. The time of concentration for the area is estimated to be 30 minutes and consists of 25
minutes for over land flow across the pavement to the drain and 5 minutes for the maximum
time from the upstream end of the drain to the outlet at the other end. (a) Construct the
isochrones at 5 minutes interval for this area. (b) A rainfall of 7 cm/h occurs on this plot for D
minutes and stops abruptly. Assuming a runoff coefficient of 0.8 sketch idealized outflow
hydrographs for D = 5 and 40 minutes
Required:
(a) Construct the isochrones
(b) Plot the rainfall
Solution:
(a.)
Location A B C D

min 0 5 30 25
Time travel

(b.)
For 5 - min rain, area contributing to flow at 5 min:

is reached in 5 min

is reached in 10 mins

remains constant up to 20 min. Then onwards decrease to reach zero at

t = total + duration of rain = 30 min

Idealized Hydrograph
(b-1)
DRH for 5-- min Rainfall
For 30 min rain:

The entire are contributes to the peak runoff of .the peak occurs at 30 min, he peaks

will remain constant till t = 40 min and the onwards decreases for another = 30 min to reach
zero at t = 70 min.
Idealized Hydrograph

(b-2) DRH for 40 min Rainfall - min

7.9 A rectangular parking lot is 150 m wide and 300 m long. The time of overland flow
across the pavement to the longitudinal gutter along the center is 20 minutes and the
estimated total time of concentration to the downstream end of the gutter is 25 minutes.
The coefficient of runoff is 0.92. If a rainfall of intensity 6 cm/h falls on the lot for 10
minutes and stops abruptly determine the peak rate of flow.
Given:
parking lot is 150mX300 m
Coefficient runoff- 0.92
D = 10 min
Required:
Peak rate flow =?
Solution:

Maximum area having = 10 min

A=

7.10 A flood of 4000 m3 /s in a certain river has a return period of 40 years. (a) What is
its probability of exceedance? (b) What is the probability that a flood of 4000 m3 /s or
greater magnitude may occur in the next 20 years? (c) What is the probability of
occurrence of a flood of magnitude less than 4000 m3 /s
Given:

Required:
(a) Probability of exceedance
(b) Probability of greater magnitude may occur
(c) Occurrence of a flood of magnitude
Solution:
(a)

(b)
For an occurrence of at least once in 20 years
(C)

7.11 Complete the following:

(a) Probability of a 10-year flood occurring at least once in the next 5 years is
__________
(b) Probability that a flood of magnitude equal to or greater than the 20-year flood will
not occur in the next 20 years is __________
(c) Probability of a flood equal to or greater than a 50-year flood occurring next year is
__________
(d) Probability of a flood equal to or greater than a 50-year flood occurring three times in
the next 10 years is __________
(e) Probability of a flood equal to or greater than a 50-year flood occurring at least once
in next 50 years is __________

Solution:
(a)

(b)
For an occurrence of at least once in 20 years

(c)

(d)
r=3
n = 10

7.12 A table showing the variation of the frequency factor K in the Gumbel’s extreme
value distribution with the sample size N and return period T is often given in books.
The following is an incomplete listing of K for T = 1000 years. Complete the table.

Solution:

N T K

35 1000 6.907255 0.5402 1.1285 5.6421

45 1000 6.907255 0.5463 1.1519 5.5221
55 1000 6.907255 0.5504 1.1681 5.4420
60 1000 6.907255 0.5521 1.1747 5.4100
65 1000 6.907255 0.5535 1.1803 5.3832

7.13 The following table gives the observed annual flood values in the river Krishna at
Karad Estimate the flood peaks with return periods of 50, 100 and 1000 years by using:
(a) Gumbel’s extreme value distribution, (b) log-Pearson type III distribution, and (c)
log-normal distribution.
Annual Flood Discharge in the river Krishna at Karad

Required:
Flood Peaks using
(a) Gumbel’s extreme value distribution
(b) (b) log-Pearson type III distribution
(c) (c) log-normal distribution.
Solution:
(a)
N = 13 years

For N = 13 years
 and

Values of

T years K

50 3.901939 3.404813 5763

100 4.600149 4.105054 6392
1000 6.907255 6.41887 8471

(c) Log Person Type 3: The value of z - variate

Year Flood x

1963 3210 3.5065

1964 4000 3.6021
1965 1250 3.0969
1966 3300 3.5185
1967 2480 3.3945
1968 1780 3.2504
1969 1860 3.2695
190 4130 3.6160
1971 3110 3.4928
1972 2320 3.3655
1973 2480 3.3945
1974 3405 3.5321
1975 1820 3.2601

= Coeff, of skew = - 0.0375.

 T years 50 100 1000

2.034 2.299 3.038

0.3163 0.3575 0.4725

3.7240 3.7652 3.8800

5296 5823 7588

(c)
Log - Norma Distribution

and

T years 50 100 1000

2.054 2.326 3.090

0.3194 0.3617 0.4806

3.7271 3.7674 3.8882

5334 5880 7730

7.14 A hydraulic structure on a stream has been designed for a discharge of 350 m3 /s.
If the available flood data on the stream is for 20 years and the mean and standard
deviation for annual flood series are 121 and 60 m3 /s respectively, calculate the return
period for the design flood by using Gumbel’s method.
Given:

N = 20 years, ,

Required:
Return period for the design flood by using Gumbel’s method.
Solution:
For N = 20 years
350 = 121 + 60 K

T = 98 years
Hence a return period of the design flood is 100 years

7.15 For a data of maximum-recorded annual floods of a river the mean and the
standard deviation are 4200 m3 /s and 1705 m3 /s respectively. Using Gumbel’s
extreme value distribution, estimate the return period of a design flood of 9500 m3 /s.
Assume an infinite sample size
Given:

Required:

Estimate the return period of a design flood

Solution:

9500 = 4200 + K(1705)

Hence

Also,
7.16 For a river, the estimated flood peaks by using log-normal distribution are as
follows:

What flood discharge in this river will have a return period of 1000 years?
The variation of frequency factor with the return period in log-normal distribution is as
follows:

Required:
Flood Discharge =?
Solution:

Where and are constant for the given data series.

For T = 1000 years

7.17 The flood data of a river was analyzed for the prediction of extreme values by Log
Pearson Type III distribution. Using the variate z = log Q, where Q = flood discharge in
the river, it was found that z = 2.510, sz = 0.162 and coefficient of skew Cs = 0.70. (a)
Estimate the flood discharges with return periods of 50, 100, 200 and 1000 years in this
river. (b) What would be the corresponding flood discharge if log-normal distribution was
used?
Given: z̄ = 2.510 m3/s
σz = 0.162 m3/s
Cs = 0.70
Required: Estimate the flood discharges with return periods of 50, 100, 200 and 1000 years and
flood discharge if log-normal distribution was used.
Solution:
a.) Using Log-Pearson Type III distribution
Time(years) Kz Kz σz zT xt(m3/s)
50 2.407 0.3899 2.8999 794
100 2.824 0.4575 2.9675 928
200 3.223 0.5221 3.032 1077
1000 4.105 0.6506 3.175 1496

b.) Using Log-Normal Distribution, Cs = 0

Time(years) Kz Kz σz zT xt(m3/s)
50 2.054 0.3327 2.8427 696
100 2.326 0.3768 2.8868 771
200 2.576 0.4173 2.9273 846
1000 3.090 0.5006 3.0106 1025

7.18 The frequency analysis of flood data of a river by using Log Pearson Type III
distribution yielded the following data:
Given: Coefficient of Skewness = 0.4

Given the following data regarding the variation of the frequency factor K with the return
period T for Cs = 0.4, estimate the flood magnitude in the river with a return period of
1000 yrs.

Required: Flood magnitude in the river with a return period of 1000 years
Solution:
Time(years) Q Zt = log Q Kz
50 10000 4.00000 2.261
200 15000 4.17609 2.949
𝑧𝑡 = 𝑧 + 𝐾𝑧σ𝑧

4. 17609 = 𝑧 + 2. 949 σ𝑧

4. 00000 = 𝑧 + 2. 261 σ𝑧

0. 17609 = 0. 688σ𝑧

σ𝑧 = 0. 25595

𝑍 = 4. 000 − (2. 261)(0. 25595)

= 3. 4213
When 𝑇 = 1000 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠, 𝐾𝑧 = 3. 670

𝑧𝑡 = 3. 4213 + (3. 670 𝑥 0. 25595)

= 4. 36064
3
𝑚
𝑄 = 𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑧𝑡 = 22943 𝑠
which is 22950 m3/s
7.19 A river has 40 years of annual flood flow record. The discharge values are in m3 /s.
The logarithms to base 10 of these discharge values show a mean value of 3.2736,
standard deviation of 0.3037 and a coefficient of skewness of 0.07. Calculate the
50-year return period annual flood discharge by,
(a) Log-normal distribution, and
(b) Log-Pearson type III distribution
Given: Cs = 0
Kz = 2.054
Required: z50 using Log-Normal Distribution and Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution
Solution:
a). Using Log-Normal Distribution
𝑍50 = 3. 2736 + (2. 054 𝑥 0. 3037)

= 3. 8974
𝑄50 = 𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑔 therefore z50 = 7896 m3/s

(b) Log-Pearson type III distribution

Cs = 0.07 and Kz = 2.091
𝑍50 = 3. 2736 + (2. 091 𝑥 0. 3037)

= 3. 90864
𝑄50 = 𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑔 therefore z50 = 8103 m3/s

7.20 The following data give flood-data statistics of two rivers in UP

Given:

Required: Estimate the 100- and 1000-year floods for these two rivers by using
Gumbel’s Method and the 95% confidential intervals for the predicted values?
Solution: River Ganga
T yT KT xT 𝑏 =
2
1 + 1. 3𝐾 + 1. 1𝐾
𝑏σ𝑛−1 𝑥1/2 = 𝑥𝑡 ±𝑓(𝑐)𝑠𝑒
𝑠𝑒 =
𝑁
 100 4.6000 3.362 16359 4.2195 1298 x1 = 18903, x2 =
25767
1000 6.9073 5.2815 22023 6.2088 1910 x1 = 13413, x2 =
18214

River Yamuna
T yT KT xT 𝑏 =
2
1 + 1. 3𝐾 + 1. 1𝐾
𝑏σ𝑛−1 𝑥1/2 = 𝑥𝑡 ±𝑓(𝑐)𝑠𝑒
𝑠𝑒 =
𝑁

100 4.6000 3.4735 17298 4.3344 1982 x1 = 21182, x2 =

29656
1000 6.9073 5.4488 23935 6.3829 2919 x1 = 13413, x2 =
18214

7.21 For a river, the estimated flood peaks for two return periods by the use of Gumbel’s
method are as follows
Given:

Required: Q1000 =?

Solution: 𝑥𝑇 = 𝑥 + 𝐾𝑇σ𝑛−1

435 = 𝑥 + 𝐾100σ𝑛−1

395 = 𝑥 + 𝐾50σ𝑛−1 = 40

𝑦𝑇−𝑦 𝑛
𝐾= 𝑠𝑛

100
𝑦100 = − [ln 𝑙𝑛 . 𝑙𝑛 99
] = 4. 6001

50
𝑦50 = − [ln 𝑙𝑛 . 𝑙𝑛 49
] = 3. 9019

4.6001 – 3.9019 = 0.6982

4.6001 – 3.9019
𝑠𝑛
σ𝑛−1 = 40

When T = 1000 year,

6.9073− 𝑦𝑛
𝐾1000 = 𝑆𝑛
 6.9073− 𝑦𝑛 2.3072
𝐾1000 − 𝐾100 = 𝑆𝑛
= 𝑆𝑛

2.3072
𝑄1000 − 435 = 𝑆𝑛
σ𝑛−1 = 2. 3072 𝑥 57. 29 = 132

𝑄1000 = 567 m3/s

7.22 Using 30 years data and Gumbel’s method, the flood magnitudes, for return periods
of 100 and 50 years for a river are found to be 1200 and 1060 m3 /s respectively. (a)
Determine the mean and standard deviation of the data used, and (b) Estimate the
magnitude of a flood with a return period of 500 years.
Given: N = 30 years
Return periods of 100 years = 1200 m3/s
Return periods of 50 years = 1060 m3/s
Required: σ𝑛−1 = ?

𝑥= ?
𝑥500 = ?

Solution:

a.) 𝑥𝑇 = 𝑥 + 𝐾𝑇σ𝑛−1

1200 = 𝑥 + 𝐾100σ𝑛−1

1060 = 𝑥 + 𝐾50σ𝑛−1

(𝐾100 − 𝐾50)σ𝑛−1 = 140

𝑦𝑇−𝑦 𝑛
𝐾= 𝑠𝑛
100
𝑦100 = − ⎡𝑙𝑛. 𝑙𝑛 99 ⎤ = 4. 6001
⎣ ⎦
50
𝑦50 = − ⎡𝑙𝑛. 𝑙𝑛 49 ⎤ = 3. 9019
⎣ ⎦
4.6001−0.532
𝐾100 = 1.1124
= 3. 6533
3.9019−0.5362
𝐾50 = 1.1124
= 3. 0257
(3. 6533 − 3. 0257)σ𝑛−1 = 140
140
σ𝑛−1 = 0.6276
= 223 m3/s
1200 = 𝑥 + (3. 6533)(223)
𝑥 = 385 m3/s
 6.2136−0.5362
b.) 𝐾500 = 1.1124
= 5. 1034
𝑥500 = 385 + (5. 1034)(223) = 1523 m3/s

7.23 The ordinates of a mass curve of rainfall from a severe storm in a catchment is
given. Ordinates of a 12-h unit hydrograph applicable to the catchment are also given.
Using the given mass curve, develop a design storm to estimate the design flood for the
catchment. Taking the f index as 0.15 cm/h, estimate the resulting flood hydrograph.
Assume the base flow to be 50 m3 /s
Given: Ø index = 0.15 cm/h = 1.8 cm per 12-hour interval

Required: Design Storm and Flood Hydrograph Calculation

Time(h) Cumulative 6-h UH 12-h First Design Infiltration(cm Rainfall
Rainfall(cm) ordinate increment(cm) arrangement Sequence in 12 hrs.) excess
of
Design
storm
(cm)
0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0
12 10.2 32 10.2 3.5 1.8 1.7
24 30.5 96 20.3 2.0 10.2 1.8 8.4
36 34.0 130 3.5 20.3 20.3 1.8 18.5
48 36.0 126 2.0 10.2 2.0 1.8 0.2
60 98 3.5
72 75
84 50
96 30
108 15
120 7
132 0
Solution: Design Storm Calculations

Flood Hydrograph Calculation

Time(h) 12-h UH 1.7 cm 8.4 cm 18.5 0.2 cm Baseflow(m3/s Flood
ordinate Design Design cm Design ) Hydrograph
(m3 Storm Storm Design Storm Ordinate(m3/s
/s) Excess Excess Storm Excess )
Rainfall Rainfall Excess Rainfall
Rainfall
0 0 0 50 50
12 32 54.4 0 1 50 104
24 96 163.2 268.8 0 50 482
36 130 221 806.4 592 0 50 1669
48 126 214.2 1092 1776 6.4 50 3139
60 98 166.6 1058 2405 19.2 50 3699
72 75 127.5 823.2 2331 26 50 3358
84 50 85 630 1813 25.2 50 2603
96 30 51 420 1388 19.6 50 1928
108 15 25.5 252 925 15 50 1268
120 7 11.9 126 555 10 50 753
132 0 0 58.5 277.5 6 50 392
144 0 129.5 3 50 183
156 0 1.4 50 51
168 0 50 50

7.24 A 6-hour unit hydrograph is in the form of a triangle with a peak of 50 m3 /s at 24

hours from start. The base is 54 hours. The ordinates of a mass curve of rainfall from a
severe storm in the catchment is as below:
Given: peak of 50 m3/s at 24 hours
Base = 54 hours
Ø index = = 0.10 cm/h
base flow = 20 m3/s.

Required: Design Storm and Flood Hydrograph Calculation

Solution: Design Storm Calculation
Time(h) Cumulative 6-h UH 12-h First Design Infiltration(cm Rainfall
Rainfall(cm) ordinate increment(cm) arrangement Sequence in 12 hrs) excess
(m3 of
/s) Design
storm
(cm)
0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0
6 5.0 12.5 5.0 2.6 0.6 2.0
12 12.0 25 7.0 3.0 5.0 0.6 4.4
18 15.0 37.5 3.0 7.0 7.0 0.6 6.4
24 17.6 50 2.6 5.0 3.0 0.6 2.4
30 40 2.6
36 30
42 20
48 10
54 0

Time(h) 6-h UH 2.0 4.4 6.4 2.4 Baseflow(m3/s Flood

ordinate Design Design Design Design ) Hydrograph
(m3 Storm Storm Storm Storm Ordinate(m3/s
/s) Excess Excess Excess Excess )
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall
0 0 0 20 20
6 12.5 25 0 20 45
12 25 50 55 0 20 125
18 37.5 75 110 80 0 20 285
24 50 100 165 160 30 20 475
30 40 80 220 240 60 20 620
36 30 60 176 320 90 20 666
42 20 40 132 256 120 20 568
48 10 20 88 192 96 20 416
54 0 0 44 128 72 20 264
60 0 0 64 48 20 132
66 0 0 0 24 20 44
72 0 0 0 20 20
Flood Hydrograph Calculation

7.25 A water-resources project has an expected life of 20 years. (a) For an acceptable
risk of 5% against the design flood, what design return period is to be adopted? (b) If
the above return period is adopted and the life of the structure can be enhanced to 50
years, what is the new risk value?
Given: 𝑅1 = 0. 05

20 years
50 years
Required: T =?

𝑅= ?
1 𝑛
Solution: a. 𝑅1 = 1 − (1 − 𝑇
)

1 20
0. 05 = 1 − (1 − 𝑇
)

1 20
0. 95 = 1 − (1 − 𝑇
)

T = 390 years
 1 50
b. 𝑅2 = 1 − 1 − ( )
390
= 0. 12

𝑅1 = 12%

7.26 A factory is proposed to be located on the edge of the 50-year flood plain of a river.
If the design life of the factory is 25 years, what is the reliability that it will not be flooded
during its design life?
Given: T = 50
n = 25

Required: Re =?
1 25
(
Solution: 𝑅𝑒 = 1 − 50) =

7.27 A spillway has a design life of 20 years. Estimate the required return period of a
flood if the acceptable risk of failure of the spillway is 10% (a) in any year, and (b) over
its design life.
Given: t = 20 years

𝑅1 = 10%

Required: T in a year =?
T in a over its design life =?
1 𝑛
Solution: 𝑅1 = 1 − (1 − 𝑇
)

1 1
a.) 0. 10 = 1 − (1 − 𝑇
)
T = 10 years
1 20
b.) 0. 10 = 1 − (1 − 𝑇
)
T = 190 years

7.28 Show that if the life of a project n has a very large value, the risk of failure is 0.632
when the design period is equal to the life of the project, n
Given: risk of failure = 0.632
Required: Show that if the life of a project n has a very large value, the risk of failure is 0.632
1 𝑛
Solution: 𝑅1 = 1 − (1 − 𝑛
)

𝑛 𝑛(𝑛−1) 2 𝑛(𝑛−1)(𝑛−2) 3
(1 − 𝑥) = 1 − 𝑛𝑥 + 2!
𝑥 − 3!
𝑥 + Λ

1 𝑛
(1 − ) 𝑛
=1−
𝑛
𝑛
+
𝑛(𝑛−1)
2!.𝑛
2 𝑥 −
2 𝑛(𝑛−1)(𝑛−2)
3
3!.𝑛
3
𝑥 + Λ

1 1 1 3𝑛−2 1
=1−1+ 2!
− 2!𝑛
− 3!
+ 2 − 4!
Λ
3!.𝑛

1 𝑛
(1 − ) 𝑛
=1 − 1 +
1
2!
−
1
3!
+
1
4!
Λ =𝑒
−𝑙

−1 −1
𝑅1 = 1 − 𝑒 = 1 − (2. 71828) = 1 − 03678 = 0. 6322

7.29 The regression analysis of a 30-year flood data at a point on a river yielded sample
mean of 1200 m3 /s and standard deviation of 650 m3 /s. For what discharge would you
design the structure to provide 95% assurance that the structure would not fail in the
next 50 years? Use Gumbel’s method. The value of the mean and standard deviation of
the reduced variate for N = 30 are 0.53622 and 1.11238 respectively.
3
Given: 𝑥 = 1200 𝑚 /𝑠
3
σ𝑛−1 = 650 𝑚 /𝑠

𝑅𝑒 = 0. 95

Required: 𝑥𝑇 = ?

1 50
Solution: 𝑅𝑒 = 1 − (1 − 𝑇
)
1
1
1− 𝑇
= (0. 95) 50 = 0. 9989746

𝑇 = 975 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠

𝑥𝑇 = 𝑥 + 𝐾σ𝑛−1

𝑦𝑇−0.53622
𝐾= 1.11238

975
𝑦𝑇 = − [𝑙𝑛. ln 𝑙𝑛 975−1
]
 = 6. 881925
𝐾 = 5. 7046
𝑥𝑇 = 1200 + (5. 7046)𝑥650

= 4908 m3/s

7.30 Analysis of the annual flood peak data of river Damodar at Rhondia, covering a
period of 21 years yielded a mean of 8520 m3 /s and a standard deviation of 3900 m3
/s. A proposed water control project on this river near this location is to have an
expected life of 40 years. Policy decision of the project allows an acceptable reliability of
85%. (a) Using Gumbel’s method recommend the flood discharge for this project. (b) If a
safety factor for flood magnitude of 1.3 is desired, what discharge is to be adored? What
would be the corresponding safety margin?
3
Given: 𝑥 = 8520 𝑚 /𝑠
3
σ𝑛−1 = 3900 𝑚 /𝑠

𝑁 = 21 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
𝑛 = 40 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
𝑅𝑒 = 0. 85

𝑇 = 247 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
Required: 𝑥𝑇 =?

Caf =?
safety margin =?
1 40
Solution: 0. 85 = 1 − (1 − 𝑇
)

𝑇 = 247 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠

N = 21 years is 𝑦𝑛 = 0. 5252 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑛 = 1. 0696

247
𝑦𝑇 = − [𝑙𝑛. ln 𝑙𝑛 246
] = 5. 50736

5.50736−0.5252
𝐾= 1.0696
= 4. 657966

𝑥𝑇 = 8520 + (4. 657966)𝑥3900 =

𝐶𝑎𝑓 = 1. 3 𝑥 26700 =

𝑆𝑎𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑦 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 = 34710 − 26700 =