Performance Highlights: Neutral
Performance Highlights: Neutral
Performance Highlights: Neutral
HCC
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit 2QFY12 828.6 93.7 (40.5) 2QFY11 884.6 113.3 12.1 % chg (yoy) (6.3) (17.3) 1QFY12 1,057.9 137.9 2.9 % chg (qoq) (21.7) (32.1) -
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 1,601 1.3 67/26 1,362,726 1 16,786 5,050 HCNS.BO HCC@IN
`26 -
For 2QFY2012, HCCs numbers came in much lower than our and street expectations. As of 2QFY2012, the companys total outstanding order book stands at `16,175cr (excluding L1 orders of `2,077cr), with no order inflow during the quarter. Owing to HCCs poor performance in 2QFY2012 and given the headwinds faced by the infrastructure sector, we are revising our estimates downwards for FY2012 and FY2013. Further, owing to concerns such as uncertainty on Lavasa project, slowdown in order inflow, high debt and stretched working capital, we remain Neutral on the stock. Abysmal performance on all fronts: On the top-line front, HCCs revenue declined by 6.3% yoy to `828.6cr (`884.6cr), against our estimate of `946.5cr, due to slowdown in execution. EBITDAM came in at 11.3% (12.8%), a dip of 150bp yoy and lower than our estimate of 13.2% on account of commodity price pressures and fixed overheads not covered by lower revenue. On the earnings front, HCC reported a loss of `40.5cr vs. profit of `12.1cr in 2QFY2011, against our estimated loss of `7.4cr. Shocking performance on the bottom-line front was due to lower revenues, compression on EBITDA margin front and higher interest cost (`107.4cr, 60.2%/15.2% yoy/qoq jump). Outlook and valuation: On the valuations front, at current levels, the stock trades at 41.0x PE and 1.2x P/BV on FY2013E standalone basis. We have valued HCC on an SOTP basis with a fair value of `44/share by assigning 6x FY2013E earnings (standalone). The companys real estate venture has been valued on NAV basis and its BOT assets have been valued by giving a 30% discount to P/E deal. Our fair value implies an upside of 65.3% from current levels, but we continue to maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock, owing to concerns mentioned above. Further, in the infrastructure space, we believe there are better bets than HCC such as L&T and Sadbhav.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 39.9 11.5 24.6 24.1
3m
1yr
FY2010
3,644 10.0 81 7.2 12.2 1.3 19.7 1.1 6.5 8.6 1.1 8.9
FY2011
4,093 12.3 71 (12.8) 13.2 1.2 22.6 1.1 4.7 8.3 1.2 9.0
FY2012E
4,152 1.4 (58) 12.4 (1.0) 1.1 (3.9) 6.2 1.4 11.5
FY2013E
4,633 11.6 39 12.6 0.6 41.0 1.2 2.8 7.0 1.2 9.2
Shailesh Kanani
022-39357800 Ext:6829 shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext:6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 828.6 734.9 93.7 11.3 107.4 41.4 (3.0) (58.1) (17.6) (40.5) (4.9) (0.7)
2QFY11 884.6 771.3 113.3 12.8 67.1 35.9 6.1 16.5 4.3 12.1 1.4 0.2
1QFY12 1,057.9 920.0 137.9 13.0 93.3 39.2 0.7 6.2 3.3 2.9 0.3 0.0
1HFY12 1,886.5 1,654.9 231.6 12.3 200.7 80.6 (2.3) (52.0) (14.3) (37.7) (2.0) (0.6)
1HFY11 1,879.9 1,640.9 239.0 12.7 124.8 70.5 9.2 52.9 12.4 40.5 2.2 0.7
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
Projects update
For Dhule-Palasner project, management is confident of achieving completion in 3QFY2012 six months before the scheduled completion date. The three BOT road projects in West Bengal are progressing well and are on schedule to achieve completion during July-August 2013. As per management, HCC Concessions will report revenue of ~`187cr and ~`537cr in FY2013 and FY2014, respectively. On the Kishanganga project, 20-30% completion has been achieved as on 2QFY2012.
Lavasa update
In the latest development on the Lavasa project, the Bombay High Court has directed Government of Maharashtra to take credible action against Lavasa (one of the five pre-conditions set by MoEF) in two weeks. Further, it has directed MOEF to pass a decisive order by November 16, 2011. The court also said that if MoEF fails to pass its final order, it will hear Lavasas petition on merits and pass appropriate orders. Against this background, we believe Lavasa should get clearance for the first phase on November 16, 2011.
2QFY12
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
(4.9)
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
FY2013E Variation (%) (8.2) (20)bp Earlier estimates 5,486 12.6 73.4 Revised estimates 4,633 12.6 39.0 Variation (%) (15.5) (46.8) 4,152 12.4 (57.7)
Revised estimates
On the valuations front, at current levels, the stock trades at 41.0x PE and 1.2x P/BV on FY2013E standalone basis. We have valued HCC on an SOTP basis with a fair value of `44/share by assigning 6x FY2013E earnings (standalone). The companys real estate venture has been valued on NAV basis and its BOT assets have been valued by giving a 30% discount to P/E deal. Our fair value implies an upside of 65.3% from current levels, but we continue to maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock, owing to concerns aforesaid. Further, in the infrastructure space, we believe there are better bets than HCC such as L&T and Sadbhav.
Remarks 6.0x FY2013E earnings NAV Basis 30% Discount to PE deal, valuing it at `1,650cr
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E 3,929 3,083 10,158 3.3 7,616 3,314 14,460 4.4 6,054 3,644 16,870 4.6 3,410 4,093 16,187 4.0 3,871 4,152 15,906 3.8 4,897 4,633 16,169 3.5
(1.0) 0.6
Buy 13,832 15,092 17,683 9,585 10,992 5,755 2,602 5,286 3,272 1,959 4,910 6,689 2,865 6,178 3,587 2,512 6,484 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
- Neutral
- Neutral
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Order book to sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Work. cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage
1.6 4.3 1.8 2.2 5.0 1.5 1.5 5.3 1.6 2.2 6.1 1.3 3.1 8.4 0.8 2.7 6.4 1.1 2.5 230 125 153 2.1 271 1 153 172 2.1 318 1 186 207 2.2 360 229 250 2.0 426 277 318 2.0 408 307 287 9.8 10.8 7.7 9.9 10.6 7.6 8.6 9.0 6.5 8.3 8.6 4.7 6.2 6.4 (3.9) 7.0 7.1 2.8 8.8 0.7 1.2 7.5 6.3 1.5 9.4 9.5 0.8 1.1 8.1 7.7 1.9 8.7 9.0 0.7 1.0 6.0 5.7 1.8 6.7 9.5 0.6 0.9 5.5 6.2 1.8 4.3 8.4 0.8 0.8 5.0 8.4 2.6 (3.9) 8.6 0.7 0.8 4.7 5.7 2.9 1.9 2.9 1.2 2.8 0.8 16.6 3.0 1.3 3.2 0.8 16.6 2.7 1.3 3.2 0.8 25.0 1.2 1.2 3.7 0.9 25.1 (1.0) (1.0) 1.8 0.9 23.1 0.6 0.6 3.7 0.9 22.7 21.9 9.5 1.6 3.0 1.0 8.7 1.1 2.7 21.1 8.4 1.6 3.0 1.1 8.7 1.1 4.4 19.7 8.2 1.1 3.0 1.1 8.9 0.9 4.6 22.6 7.2 1.1 3.4 1.2 9.0 0.9 4.0 14.3 1.1 3.4 1.4 11.5 1.0 3.8 41.0 7.1 1.2 3.4 1.2 9.2 1.0 3.5 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
HCC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
11