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Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration in the Xiangjiang River Basin

from 2000 to 2020

Article in Hydrology Research · July 2023

DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.143

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 © 2023 The Authors Hydrology Research Vol 54 No 8, 924 doi: 10.2166/nh.2023.143

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration in the Xiangjiang River Basin from 2000 to

2020

Suxun Lia,b, Chang Fengb,* and Liu Yangb

a
School of Earth Science and Resources, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
b
College of Geography and Tourism, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421002, China
*Corresponding author. E-mail: fengchang8802@163.com

ABSTRACT

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a crucial parameter in the process of the hydrological cycle. It is vital for water resource management in the Xiang-
jiang River Basin (XRB) within Hunan Province of China to explore the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of ET. Based on MOD16,
this study revealed the characteristics of spatiotemporal patterns of ET in the XRB from 2000 to 2020. We first applied land use data and
change rate for overall trend analysis on ET. Then, we obtained migration routes of ET through standard deviation ellipse (SDE). Furthermore,
we demonstrated the effects of monsoon and urban expansion on ET change. The results showed: (1) while the ET of artificial surfaces
decreased the change rate in most regions of the XRB was 8.83%, indicating that the overall trend of ET in the XRB was increasing. (2) At
10-year intervals, the SDE center of ET all migrated in a clockwise direction. (3) The correlation between precipitation and ET is more obvious
than that between temperature and ET. (4) With the influence of monsoon on precipitation in East Asia, the changes in precipitation are con-
sistent with the ET change.

Key words: driving factors, evapotranspiration, MODIS, spatiotemporal patterns, standard deviation ellipse, Xiangjiang River Basin

HIGHLIGHTS

• Revealing the spatiotemporal characteristics of evapotranspiration (ET) in a river basin with the typical East Asian monsoon climate.
• Using the standard deviation ellipse method to access the spatiotemporal migration routes of ET, which provides a new insight for ET map-
ping.
• Demonstrating the implications of the monsoon and urban expansion on ET changes.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY 4.0), which permits copying, adaptation and
redistribution, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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 Hydrology Research Vol 54 No 8, 925

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

1. INTRODUCTION
Evapotranspiration (ET) is defined as the actual amount of water that is separated from land surfaces including vegetation
and the ground due to the process of evaporation–transpiration (Venturini et al. 2012). While ET plays an important role
in the hydrological cycle and the water and energy balance in land surface–atmosphere systems (Batra et al. 2006), it becomes
an indicator of global climate change, meteorological factor prediction and agricultural irrigation management (Huo et al.
2013). Therefore, it is of great significance to better understand mechanisms in spatiotemporal patterns of ET for the manage-
ment of water resources and the restoration of the ecological environment.
Before the rise of remote sensing technology, the conventional methods of estimating ET are based on meteorological daily
data, which are limited to small regions or specific land use for short intervals (Brutsaert & Stricker 1979; Granger & Gray
1990). In the last four decades, several models have been developed for measuring ET and analyzing its distribution charac-
teristics in larger spatial and temporal scales. These methods can be categorized as follows: (1) empirical methods that use site
relationships among different factors (Priestley & Taylor 1972; Granger & Gray 1989). (2) Indirect methods that are usually
physically based and involve several factors (Boone et al. 2000). (3) Residual methods that measure ET as the residual of the
surface energy balance, including Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) (Bastiaanssen et al. 1998) and Sur-
face Energy Balance System (SEBS) (Su 1988). Moreover, a method based on the new parameter F, which is a dimensionless
coefficient varying from 0 to 1 and can be approximated as the ratio of ET to potential ET, was proposed to compute ET with
remotely sensed data and no site-specific relationships (Venturini et al. 2008).
In recent years, though many researchers focus on estimating ET through observations and performing satisfied precision,
ET studies that are based on limited observation sites have limitations when the research area is larger than a field or the
study period is over several years. Thus, deriving ET from the remote sensing data has gradually become a main direction.
Since various remote sensing data have different spatial and temporal resolutions, studies based on remotely sensed analysis
have examined the spatiotemporal patterns of ET on different scales, ranging from continent to regional levels. On the con-
tinent scale, the products of MODIS (Mu et al. 2007) are widely used in the research of ET, such as East Asia (Hwang & Choi
2013), conterminous United States (Velpuri et al. 2013) and Siberia (Shi et al. 2022). Some experts use other remote sensing
data for ET mapping like Landsat (Yang et al. 2017; Tan et al. 2019) or ERA5 (Fan et al. 2022; Li et al. 2022b). However,

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many studies did not consider the annual and seasonal change of ET, which is more available on the regional scale. MODIS
data are often employed in studying the pattern of spatial–temporal change on ET in smaller regions, including the US Mid-
west (Basso et al. 2021), North China Plain (Mo et al. 2011), Poyang Lake Basin (Wu et al. 2013), Liaohe River Delta wetland
(Liu et al. 2020) and agro-pastoral ecotone in Northwest China (Li et al. 2019). Currently, studies in China mainly focus on
river basins of arid and semiarid climates, while studies on the area of subtropical monsoon climate are relatively insufficient.
The Xiangjiang River Basin within Hunan Province of China (XRB) represents a region with a typical East Asian subtropical
humid monsoon climate. While increasing trends in the summer extreme rainfall and streamflow can be observed in the
upper and middle XRB (Du et al. 2019), some researchers estimated that water resources and green water storage (mainly
composed of ET) in the XRB will decrease by applying a distributed hydrological model (Feng et al. 2021). Therefore, under-
standing the characteristics of ET changes over a long period is helpful for water assessments in the XRB and other regions
with similar climates.
Trend analysis is significant to understand mechanisms of spatiotemporal variation in ET in current research. The Mann–
Kendall test, simple linear regression and multivariate regression are widely applied for trend analysis in long time series with
observed data (Shan et al. 2015; Zhang et al. 2015), remote-sensed image (Yang et al. 2017; Wang et al. 2022) or assimilation
data (Lu et al. 2019; Dang et al. 2020; Zhang et al. 2020). The research on factors that have impacts on ET spatiotemporal
change is also abundant. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that ratio of transpiration (T) and total ET has increased under
climate change (Wang et al. 2013). The soil moisture fluctuation signals, which derive from soil water storage through the
calculation of the integral, can be used to indicate ET due to the interaction between soil and the atmosphere system
(Wang et al. 2021). Some experts investigate the divergence of potential and actual ET (ETr) by exploring the influence of
meteorological, hydrological and botanical factors on ET (Liu et al. 2021). Although these studies have disclosed many fea-
tures of spatial and temporal variation in ET, there are several problems that need to be further investigated: (1) how to map
the pattern of spatial–temporal change in ET and (2) how to measure the effects of natural and human factors.
In response to these problems, we studied the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of ET from a new perspective. This
study will emphasize the process of seasonal shift and annual change of ET in long series by calculating the center of the
standard deviational ellipse and applying it as the center of ET. The specific objectives of this study are as follows: (1) to ana-
lyze the spatiotemporal change of ET over the XRB from 2000 to 2020; (2) to assess the shift of ET center by utilizing the
standard deviational ellipse; (3) to obtain the relationships between meteorological factors and ET and (4) to explore the
impacts of natural and human factors on the shifting of ET center. The workflow of our study is given below (Figure 1).

2. STUDY AREA AND DATA

2.1. Study area
The XRB is around 24.7°–28.8° North latitude and 110.9°–114.2° East longitude (Figure 2). The XRB is a first-grade tributary
on the south bank of the middle Yangtze, originating from Guangxi Province and flowing through nine cities (Xiang et al.
2011). The whole drainage area is 85,965 km2, with a 916 km total river length. The terrain is dominated by mountains
and plains, and the elevation is between
9 and 2,032 m. While the XRB has become one of the most developed regions
in the middle of the Yangtze River Basin, Chang-Zhu-Tan (CZT) urban agglomeration, including three cities of Changsha,
Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, plays the most significant role in the development of the XRB (Tan et al. 2014). Therefore, improving
the ecological environment quality and resource utilization efficiency of the CZT could promote the economic development
of Hunan Province (Fu et al. 2013).
The XRB is characterized by a subtropical monsoon climate of East Asia, and the average annual per capita water resources
has resulted in the value of 2,158 m3 which is relatively high in China. Nevertheless, urban expansion has directly resulted in
negative impacts on maintaining natural and artificial wetlands (Zhang & Zeng 2018). Thus, the worsening ecological
environment is the main threat to the sustainable development of the XRB (Peng et al. 2022). Moreover, against the back-
ground of global warming, extreme weather events such as high temperatures, torrential rain, floods, and droughts have
shown an increasing trend in the XRB (Luo et al. 2008).

2.2. MODIS ET data

We used MOD16 ET data obtained from NASA (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/) to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of ET.
MOD16 ET datasets are available at 500 m grid cells and mask out land surfaces including water bodies, built-up areas and
barren lands. According to the research area, we used 500 m, annual datasets to analyze the whole trend and driving factors

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Figure 1 | The chart of workflow.

of ET over the period of 2000–2020. Then we accessed 500 m, 8-day datasets to discuss the seasonal spatiotemporal pattern of
ET. To validate remote sensing ET, the statistical data of the Hunan Provincial Water Resources Bulletin were applied to obtain
the actual ET (E) based on the water balance formula (see Section 3.7). The MOD16 ET data were processed to map the annual
ET distribution of the XRB in the past 20 years and then compared with E calculated by the water balance equation (Table 1).
The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) was 137 mm and the Mean Relative Error (MRE) was 21%. The relative errors in some
years are higher than the Mean Relative Error (MRE). These errors are mainly caused by the occurrence of extreme weather,
which increases the error in ET that is estimated by the water balance equation but not due to the remote sensing data itself
(Yang et al. 2015). Hence, the accuracy of MOD16 ET data is acceptable for this study on the XRB.

2.3. Observation data

Datasets of meteorological stations were accessed from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (http://cdc.
cma.gov.cn/). The data series were dated from 2000 to 2020, and 25 observation stations were extracted to cover the XRB.
The observed air temperature and precipitation were used to detect the potential driving forces of the ET spatiotemporal
changes in the XRB. This study removed the outliers and replaced them with the values of adjacent years. Through the spatial
interpolation method, the temperature and precipitation are converted to raster data with a spatial resolution of 500 m, which
is convenient for correlation analysis with MOD16 ET data.

2.4. Globeland30 data

We obtained the remote sensing land cover data of Globeland30 (http://www.globeland30.org/) with 30 m pixels in 2000 and
2020. Details of land cover type information are below (Table 2).

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Figure 2 | Location of the study area with elevation.

The row and column numbers of Globeland30 data are N49_20, N49_25 and N50_25, which were used to detect land
cover changes (Figure 3). On a scale of 1:500,000, the area of the artificial surface in the north of the XRB has increased sig-
nificantly in 21 years, since the MOD16 ET datasets have no values in the water body, and Globeland30 provides limited
information with only several pixels of bare land and wetland in the study area. We applied cultivated land, forest land, grass-
land and artificial surface to calculate the ET changes in the XRB.

2.5. Other auxiliary data

STRMDEM data (http://www.gscloud.cn/) with a pixel scale of 90 m are used for generating the boundary and water system
of the XRB in ArcGIS.

3. METHOD
3.1. Standard deviation ellipse analysis
The standard deviation ellipse (SDE) is a statistical method for measuring the concentration of unit locations on a ‘spot map’
(Lefever 1926). The SDE is based on the spatial average center of a set of discrete points, and the standard distance is
measured through other points around the average center. Firstly, the average center of geographical elements (population,
Net Primary Productivity (NPP), Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5)) was defined. Then, the standard deviations in X and Y direc-
tions are calculated, respectively, and the major and minor axes of the ellipse are obtained. Therefore, SDE can be applied to
indicate the distribution density of geographical units studied, and the major axis indicates the major orientation (Gong 2002).
Some researchers use the SDE to understand the development degree and the direction of urbanization (Xiang et al. 2022),
detect the trends of main land use types (Chen & Chen 2009) and even describe spatial patterns of motor vehicle crashes

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Table 1 | Assessment accuracy of MOD16 ET data

Year E (mm) MOD16 ET (mm) Absolute error (mm) Relative error (%)

2001 621 728 106 17

2002 767 722 45 5
2004 766 716 49 6
2005 587 752 165 28
2006 650 766 115 17
2007 600 734 133 22
2008 615 714 98 15
2009 585 803 217 37
2010 718 780 62 8
2011 537 771 234 43
2012 735 811 76 10
2013 586 853 266 45
2014 626 778 151 24
2015 738 841 103 13
2016 625 893 268 42
2018 730 898 168 23
2020 769 843 74 9
Mean 662 788 137 21

Table 2 | Classification scheme of Globeland30 land cover data

Land cover type Code Description

Cultivated land 10 Paddy fields, irrigated upland, rainfed upland, vegetable land and other economic cropland
Forest 20 Deciduous forest, evergreen forest, mixed forest and sparse woodland
Grass land 30 The prairies, meadow steppes, alpine grasslands, desert steppes and lawns
Wetland 50 Inland marsh, lake marsh, river floodplain wetland and forest/shrub wetland
Water bodies 60 River, lake, reservoir and pit-pond
Artificial surfaces 80 All kinds of habitation in urban and rural areas and industrial and mining areas
Bare land 90 Desert, sand, gravel ground, bare rocks, saline and alkaline lands

(Levine et al. 1995). Others applied SDE to demonstrate the annual moving trace of PM2.5 (Peng et al. 2016) or spatial
dynamics of NPP (Li et al. 2022a). In this study, the spatial migration route of ET in the XRB was performed by calculating
SDE and defining its center as the ET center. Thus, we can describe an abstract spatial pattern of annual and seasonal ET
changes, whereas this trace cannot be demonstrated on the pixel level. The formulas for calculating the standard deviation
of the half-axis to the ellipse are as below:

vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
uP
un  cos u
(Yi
Y) sin u)2
u ((Xi
X)
pffiffiffiti¼1
sx ¼ 2 (1)
N
vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
uP
un  sin u
(Yi
Y) sin u)2
u ((Xi
X)
pffiffiffiti¼1
sy ¼ 2 (2)
N

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Figure 3 | Land cover of the XRB in 2000 and 2020.

3.2. Spatial interpolation analysis

This study used the kriging method and inverse distance weighting (IDW) method to interpolate meteorological station data.
The kriging interpolation method can better reflect the changes of variables in large areas and has been widely used in the
interpolation of temperature and elevation, but it also has certain limitations (Li et al. 2013). In our study area, the terrain
characteristics are complicated for a river basin with a relatively large area. However, when the elevation difference between
the mountain and the plain is too large, we find that the kriging method will show poor accuracy after spatial interpolation
with limited observations (24 national meteorology sites for our study). Instead, the IDW method is more suitable for precipi-
tation interpolation in areas with fewer meteorological stations (He et al. 2005). Thus, the IDW method was applied for
spatial interpolation analysis in our study.

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3.3. Standard deviation analysis

The standard deviation (STD) and the mean method are often used to measure the dispersion from the mean value. The for-
mula is as follows:
vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
u n
u1 X
STD ¼ t
2
(ET
ETi ) (3)
n i¼1

3.4. Trend analysis

The changing trend of ET was represented through a linear slope analysis in MATLAB. The slope is the annual change rate of
ET in the XRB from 2000 to 2020, ETi is the mean value of the year i, and n is the length of the study period, which is 21 years.
The tendency of ET change can be determined by:
P
n P
n Pn
n i  ETi
i ETi
i¼1 i¼1 i
Slope ¼  2 (4)
P
n P
n
n i2
i
i¼1 i¼1

3.5. Correlation analysis

The Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to test the correlation between ET and impact factors. The correlation
coefficient (r) is between [
1, 1]. The r can be described as follows:

P
n
(Xi
X)(Yi
Y)
i¼1
r¼ sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
ffi (5)
Pn 2P n 2
(Xi
X) (Yi
Y)
i¼1 i¼1

3.6. Relative rate of change

The relative change rate (RCR) can reflect the temporal change intensity of meteorological parameters. The RCR can be esti-
mated as follows:

ETn
ETn
1
RCR (%) ¼  100 (6)
ETn

3.7. Water balance equation

For the water balance of the catchment, there is a relationship between the water balance parameters, which can be defined
as the water balance equation. The decisive input variable is precipitation, which is transformed in the hydrological system
into the output variable evaporation, runoff and soil water. Since variables other than precipitation are often difficult to
measure directly, changes in soil water can be ignored in the annual scale (Everson 2001).
Accordingly, the water balance equation can be described as follows:

P
E¼Q (7)

4. RESULT
4.1. Overall spatial–temporal pattern of ET
4.1.1. Spatial distribution characteristics
To reveal the characteristics of the spatial distribution of ET, we extracted ET in the XRB with MOD16 data from 2000 to
2020 through the mean method, then calculated the STD value of each pixel to compare the stability of ET distribution

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on the pixel level. According to the obtained statistics, the ET shows a higher value in the east than the west and a lower value
in the north than in the south (Figure 4(a)). Except for the impact of latitude, this trend is mainly affected by land cover types
in the XRB (Figure 3).
The overall flow direction of the XRB is from south to north. The south of the XRB is higher in elevation, and the woodland
and shrubs account for a large proportion. By contrast, the north of the XRB has a lower elevation and is greatly affected by
the CZT urban agglomeration, which is the engine of economic development in Hunan Province. As a result, more land con-
struction leads to lower annual ET in the north of the basin. Similarly, the central part of the basin centered on Hengyang, the
second largest city in Hunan, also showed low values of ET. Due to the higher vegetation coverage, the eastern part of the
XRB performs a high ET value.
The STD is used to check the stability of ET distribution in the study period (Figure 4(b)). Overall, the STD of ET was low in
most of the areas. The low-value part of ET corresponds to the low-value part of STD, indicating that these areas have rela-
tively stable low values in 21 years. The STD is relatively large in some areas with higher ET values, indicating that the
stability of ET is low. The annual spatial distribution of ET in the XRB from 2000 to 2020 is shown in Figure 5.
The maximum, mean, minimum and fluctuation ranges of annual ET in cultivated land, forest land, grassland and artificial
surface were obtained through the Globeland30 data. In 2000, the fluctuation of forest ET was the largest, ranging from 444 to
1,239 mm (Figure 6(a)).
In addition, the outliers of ET in the forest were the most, indicating that the degree of dispersion of the data was large. The
fluctuation of artificial surfaces was the smallest from 530 to 1,028 mm, and the outliers were the least, indicating that the
degree of dispersion is relatively small. From the maximum value on each pixel, the ET of different land covers in 2000
was forest land . agricultural land . grassland . artificial surface in descending order. From the mean value, the ET under
different land covers was grassland . artificial surface . forest land . agricultural land in descending order.

Figure 4 | Annual mean ET and STD distribution of the XRB from 2000 to 2020.

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Figure 5 | Spatial distribution of ET in the study area from 2000 to 2020.

In 2020, the fluctuation range of forest ET is still the largest, which is between 495 and 1,509 mm (Figure 6(b)). The range
of artificial surface ET is still the smallest, which is between 477 and 1,438 mm. These are both increased comparably to that
of 21 years ago. From the maximum value and the mean value in 2020, the ET of each land cover is in the order of forest
land . grassland . agricultural land . artificial surface. The ET of forest, grassland, and agricultural land increased by 144,
90, and 51 mm, respectively, while the ET of artificial surfaces decreased by 82 mm (Table 3).
In addition, since the MOD16 data define ET in some built-ups and waterbodies as null value, these areas are not con-
sidered (instead of setting them as 0 mm) in spatial analysis for the study, and thus, ET of the XRB is generally high in
statistics.

4.1.2. Trend analysis on years

The annual mean ET of the XRB fluctuated between 714 and 898 mm (Figure 7). We take 2010 as a dividing point in the past
21 years for a whole trend analysis of ET. In the first 12 years, the ET of most years is lower than the annual mean ET.

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Figure 6 | Range of annual mean ET under different land covers.

Table 3 | Spatial changes of ET in different land covers

Land use type Mean ET in 2000 Mean ET in 2020 Value of change

Forest 737 881 144

Grass land 755 845 90
Cultivated land 728 779 51
Artificial surfaces 753 670
83

Figure 7 | Annual variation of ET in the XRB.

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However, in the next 9 years, the ET of most years is higher than the annual mean ET. Hence, ET demonstrates a completely
different distribution in the corresponding time period and shows an increase after 2012.
From 2000 to 2011, the RCR of ET in 2003 and 2009 is significantly high, which was mainly related to the occurrence of
drought. In fact, 2003 was the year when Hunan Province was hit hard by natural disasters. Compared with insect disasters
and floods, the drought was the most serious and the degree of drought was rare (http://tjj.hunan.gov.cn/tjfx/jmxx/2004tjxx/
201507/). As a consequence, with more solar radiation and less cloud and precipitation, the ET in the XRB increased signifi-
cantly when compared with previous years.
From 2012 to 2020, the ET in other years was above the annual mean ET, except for ET in 2014, which was lower than the
annual mean ET. Accordingly, it is worth considering that climate change is also a potential factor affecting ET in the basin.
The Hunan Climate Change Monitoring Bulletin announced ‘The average temperature in Hunan Province increased by 0.16 °C
every ten years from 1961 to 2014. Especially in 2014, more than 100 extreme heavy precipitation events occurred in Hunan.’
Evidence is mounting that climate change will affect small- to medium-scale regions. Thus, the relatively low ET value in 2014
may be related to the extreme weather under climate change.
Through the linear regression method and the significance test, the trend and significance of ET in the XRB from 2000 to
2020 were mapped (Figure 8). While the p-value of most regions in the XRB is lower than 0.01, the mean Slope was 8.83% of
the area with a p-value of lower than 0.05, indicating that the overall trend of ET in the XRB was increasing. According to the
range of Slope (
16 to 48%), while 0% indicates no change, the trend of ET over the study period was divided into six grades
from obvious increase to obvious decrease with intervals (Tao et al. 2021): obvious decrease (upper value is 
8.0%), rela-
tively obvious decrease (upper value is 
4.0%), slight decrease (upper value is 0%), slight increase (upper value is 8.0%),
relatively obvious increase (upper value is 16.0%) and obvious increase (upper value is 48.0%). The areas with a significant
decrease in ET are mainly distributed around cities and water bodies, and the areas with a significant increase in ET are
mainly in the mountains with high vegetation coverage. The north of the basin (actually the CZT urban agglomeration)
shows the most obvious decrease in ET. Starting from the north of the basin to surrounding areas, ET showed a changing
trend from obvious or relatively obvious decrease, slight decrease and slight increase to relatively obvious or obvious increase.

Figure 8 | Change rate of ET in the XRB during 2000–2020.

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4.2. Spatial-temporal migration route of ET center based on the SDE

At a decade interval, the center of seasonal ET and migration route were obtained through SDE (Figure 9). We take the ET
center of spring 2000 as a starting point and that of winter 2020 as the end. Three annular sub-paths are formed, representing
the center migration of seasonal ET in 2000, 2010 and 2020. In each year, the center of seasonal ET migrated in a clockwise
direction, forming a circular trajectory with a NE–SW direction on its long axis. This is related to the advance and retreat of
the East Asian monsoon.
The overall characteristics are as follows. In 2000, the migration magnitude of the ET center was the smallest in the north–
south direction (26.66°N–26.72°N). In 2010, the migration path of the seasonal ET center shifted to the NW, most notably in
summer (26.73°N–26.78°N). In 2020, the migration path has the largest north–south span (26.64°N–26.74°N), while the east-
west span is the smallest (112.63°E–112.66°E). Compared with the same period in 2000 and 2010, the center of ET in the XRB
obviously migrates north in spring and summer and migrates south in autumn and winter in 2020. Moreover, the magnitudes
of ET center migration were significantly reduced along the latitude.
The migration tracks in 2000, 2010 and 2020 have similarities (Figures 10–12). In each year, the seasonal ET center moves
to the NE from spring to summer, then moves to the SE from summer to autumn (except in 2010) and moves to the SW from
autumn to winter. The moving path in 2010 was different, which is mainly reflected in the SW movement of the ET center
from summer to autumn.

4.3. Correlation analysis on meteorological factors

Based on meteorological station data, the distribution of annual average temperature (T ) and precipitation (P) was obtained
through the kriging interpolation method (Figure 13).
In the study period, T showed a decreasing trend from SE to NW, which corresponded with the decreasing trend of solar
radiation from low latitude to high latitude. The high-value area of T is distributed in the south, and the low-value area is
located in the NW. Since the summer monsoon is blocked by the Nanling Mountains, P decreases in the north of the
basin, and the area with a low P value extended from NW to the south. The center and south of the basin are higher in P
(greater than 1,500 mm). On the contrary, the NW is a low-value area in P (between 1,344 and 1,395 mm). Thus, T and P
in the northwest are lower, and the ET is also low in these areas.

Figure 9 | Migration route of seasonal ET center based on standard deviation ellipse.

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Figure 10 | Migration track of seasonal ET center in 2000.

Figure 11 | Migration track of seasonal ET center in 2010.

Figure 12 | Migration track of seasonal ET center in 2020.

For correlation analysis, 10,000 random sample points were selected from meteorological factors and ET (Figures 14
and 15). According to the scatter map, the correlation between P and ET from 2000 to 2020 is relatively obvious, and
scatter points are concentrated near the 1:1 line. In 2000 and 2010, the correlation of P and ET was higher when P was
in the range of 1,400–1,600 mm. If the P is greater than 1,800 mm, the correlation between P and ET will gradually
decrease.

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Figure 13 | Spatial distribution of meteorology factors in the XRB.

Figure 14 | Scatter map of correlation between precipitation and ET.

In 2020, the scatter density is smaller and the scatter is closer to the 1:1 line than that of other years. Since the range of T is
small, a scale factor of 100 is used to enlarge it. The correlation scatter between T and ET is mainly concentrated around 18 °C.
T and ET perform greater correlation in the range of 17.5–18.5 °C. Moreover, the change in the scatter density distribution
indirectly shows an increase in both P and T from 2000 to 2020.

5. DISCUSSION
5.1. Effect of monsoon on precipitation
The climate in China is characterized by complex East Asia monsoon systems. The wind direction changes are most typical in
February and August when spring and summer monsoons become prevailing. A southerly monsoon prevailed in August and
daily precipitation were higher than 6 mm in most areas. In February, a northerly monsoon prevailed and regions of rainfall

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Figure 15 | Scatter map of correlation between temperature and ET.

retreated with a change in the wind direction. These areas were concentrated in southern China, and the daily precipitation
was less than 4 mm (Wang et al. 2017). Considering the monsoon directly affects the trend of precipitation in East Asia, which
indirectly leads to the variation of the spatiotemporal pattern in ET, this study provided the monthly wind field map based on
10 m wind speed from ERA5 (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/) monthly averaged data on single levels in 2020 to explore
how the direction change of monsoon affects precipitation (Figure 16).
In terms of temporal changes, the wind direction is not obvious in March, and the wind field is in a relatively stable state. In
June, the summer monsoon significantly turns southerly, so that the rainfall regions are pushed northward. In September, the
wind direction was shifted again to form a northerly wind, and the wind field became stable. In December, the northerly wind

Figure 16 | Climatological single-level winds (arrows) in 2020.

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speed increased, and the rainfall region showed an obvious southward shift compared to that of summer. These spatiotem-
poral changes of precipitation are consistent with the ET change in 2020.

5.2. Effect of urban expansion

Regarding the influence of human factors, this study takes Hengyang, the largest city in the middle of the XRB, as an
example to analyze the characteristics of artificial surface land (AL) expansion and ET center migration in the XRB
(Figure 17). In 2010, the area of AL expansion in the middle of the XRB was small. Conversely, the AL increased signifi-
cantly in 2020. It can be further inferred that compared with 2000–2010, urban expansion in 2010–2020 has a greater
impact on the migration of ET center. In fact, the area of AL expansion in the north of the basin is larger than that in
the south and middle (see Figure 2). Due to the encroachment of natural vegetation in the process of AL expansion,
ET in these areas was directly reduced. Consequently, the ET center of 2020 may shift to the south of the basin with a
higher vegetation coverage.
Comparing the migration paths of ET center at 10-year intervals from 2000 to 2020, the migration mainly occurred in the
middle of the XRB. On the whole trend, starting from spring, the three centers of ET move to the NE–SE–SW direction with
the change of seasons. ET center with the highest latitude appeared in the summer of 2010, and the one with the lowest lati-
tude appeared in the winter of 2020. On annual changes from 2000 to 2020, the spring ET center moves along the SW–NE
direction, and the moving distance is larger in 2010–2020 than in 2000–2010. Summer ET center may shift along the NW–SW
direction. Autumn ET center moves in the NW–SE direction. Then all migrated to the SE in winter. Apparently, all the ET
center of 2020 migrated to the south of XRB in each season compared with 2000, except for spring. This finding verifies the
previous conjecture.
Furthermore, areas with a higher vegetation coverage tend to have higher ET values. Compared with the south of the basin,
the urban expansion area in the north and middle is larger, and a decrease in the vegetation coverage accounts for the
reduction in ET. Thus, it can be further deduced that the decline in ET over the 21 years in the north of the XRB was
more significant. In order to verify this speculation, this study takes the cities of each river that reached the Xiangjiang
River as centers and then draws the profile line to select sample points (Figure 18).
The mean and difference values of ET along the upper, middle and lower reaches are extracted in 2000 and 2020
(Figure 19). In general, the value of ET decreases almost instantly from mountains to cities with a smaller vegetation coverage.
According to this trend, ET is higher in the area between cities, and the highest value of ET occurs in the upper reach of the

Figure 17 | Migration of ET and expansion of artificial surfaces in 2020.

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Figure 18 | Sampling points in the XRB.

Figure 19 | ET change of sampling points between 2000 and 2020.

river. Over 21 years, the value of change is above zero in different reaches of the river, indicating an increase in ET. The high-
est value of the change is in the upper reach, while the trend of increase is most obvious. Conversely, the ET value decreases
near the centers of the city, which is related to the vegetation decrease and AL area expansion in 2020.

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6. CONCLUSION
This study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of ET in the Xiangjiang River Basin from 2000 to 2020 based on a long
sequence of MOD16 ET data. The effects of monsoon and urban expansion in ET are also examined. The main conclusions
are summarized below.
1. From 2000 to 2020, the overall spatial–temporal pattern of ET shows a spatial trend of increase in the forest, grassland and
agricultural land, while the ET of artificial surfaces decreased. ET in the XRB also demonstrates an overall trend of obvious
increase based on the change rate, especially after 2012 on the annual analysis.
2. According to the migration route of the ET center in 21 years, the center of seasonal ET all migrated in a clockwise direc-
tion each year, forming a circular trajectory with a NE–SW direction on its long axis. The magnitudes of ET center
migration were significantly reduced along the latitude in 2020.
3. For correlation analysis on meteorological factors, T and P in the northwest show a low value and the ET is also low in
these areas. The correlation between P and ET from 2000 to 2020 is more obvious than that between T and ET. P and ET
show higher correlation when P is around 1,500 mm. T and ET perform a greater correlation with T in the range of 17.5–
18.5 °C.
4. Through the monthly wind field of East Asia in 2020, the spring and summer monsoons become prevailing in February and
August, respectively. With the direct effects of monsoon on precipitation, the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation are
consistent with those of ET in 2020. Moreover, while vegetation cover declined under urbanization, the seasonal ET center
shows a southward migration in 21 years, except for spring.
Since the zonal vegetation in the XRB is mainly subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest, the changes are not obvious
throughout the year, so the impact of vegetation on ET is not further analyzed here. With the wind field changing in East
Asia under global warming and the promotion of urbanization in China, spatial and temporal distribution on ET will
change correspondingly in the XRB. That is why the seasonal ET center of spring in 2020 should be investigated. The
study provided insights for mapping spatiotemporal patterns of ET in the XRB, which are useful for monitoring drought, esti-
mating water use, and indicating climate change.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors give special thanks to editors and teachers whose comments helped improve the paper.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTION
All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were per-
formed by S.L., C.F. and L.Y. The first draft of the manuscript was written by S.L. and all authors commented on previous
versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

FUNDING
This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42001024 and
41901026), the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China (Grant Nos. 2021JJ40011 and 2022JJ40015) and
the Scientific Research Project of Hunan Provincial Department of Education, China (Grant Nos. 21B0625 and 21B0646).

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

Data cannot be made publicly available; readers should contact the corresponding author for details.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare there is no conflict.

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First received 26 December 2022; accepted in revised form 10 July 2023. Available online 19 July 2023

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