# We want to predict the fair price of a used car

# # First we will import the dataset/dataframe

# Data can be in different format - url,xlsx, csv , json etc
#First we will import libraries
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
# numpy is used for arrays and vectorized computations
# Pandas is used for data manipulation, data wrangling, cleaning and
preprocessing
filename = "https://cf-courses-data.s3.us.cloud-object-
storage.appdomain.cloud/IBMDeveloperSkillsNetwork-DA0101EN-
SkillsNetwork/labs/Data%20files/auto.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(filename,header=None)
df
# Here we defined the url as filename and dataframe as df . We omitted the
header as none
# Then we called the csv file using panda and called df
# The dataset has 205 rows/records with 26 col/attributes

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 \
0 3 ? alfa-romero gas std two convertible rwd front
1 3 ? alfa-romero gas std two convertible rwd front
2 1 ? alfa-romero gas std two hatchback rwd front
3 2 164 audi gas std four sedan fwd front
4 2 164 audi gas std four sedan 4wd front
.. .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
200 -1 95 volvo gas std four sedan rwd front
201 -1 95 volvo gas turbo four sedan rwd front
202 -1 95 volvo gas std four sedan rwd front
203 -1 95 volvo diesel turbo four sedan rwd front
204 -1 95 volvo gas turbo four sedan rwd front

9 ... 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
0 88.6 ... 130 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000 21 27 13495
1 88.6 ... 130 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000 21 27 16500
2 94.5 ... 152 mpfi 2.68 3.47 9.0 154 5000 19 26 16500
3 99.8 ... 109 mpfi 3.19 3.40 10.0 102 5500 24 30 13950
4 99.4 ... 136 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.0 115 5500 18 22 17450
.. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. .. ...
200 109.1 ... 141 mpfi 3.78 3.15 9.5 114 5400 23 28 16845
201 109.1 ... 141 mpfi 3.78 3.15 8.7 160 5300 19 25 19045
202 109.1 ... 173 mpfi 3.58 2.87 8.8 134 5500 18 23 21485
203 109.1 ... 145 idi 3.01 3.40 23.0 106 4800 26 27 22470
204 109.1 ... 141 mpfi 3.78 3.15 9.5 114 5400 19 25 22625

[205 rows x 26 columns]

# For first five records

print ("The first five recods are")
df.head(5)
# print has to be in lower case
#For tail is df.tail(5)
# Here we can see there are some missing values as ?

The first five recods are

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ...
\
0 3 ? alfa-romero gas std two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
1 3 ? alfa-romero gas std two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
2 1 ? alfa-romero gas std two hatchback rwd front 94.5 ...
3 2 164 audi gas std four sedan fwd front 99.8 ...
4 2 164 audi gas std four sedan 4wd front 99.4 ...

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
0 130 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000 21 27 13495
1 130 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000 21 27 16500
2 152 mpfi 2.68 3.47 9.0 154 5000 19 26 16500
3 109 mpfi 3.19 3.40 10.0 102 5500 24 30 13950
4 136 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.0 115 5500 18 22 17450

[5 rows x 26 columns]

# Here we do not have a header. So we have to create one

#Firstly, we create a list "headers" that include all column names in order.
# Then, we use df.columns = headers to replace the headers by the list we
created.
# create headers list

headers = ["symboling","normalized-losses","make","fuel-type","aspiration",
"num-of-doors","body-style",
"drive-wheels","engine-location","wheel-base",
"length","width","height","curb-weight","engine-type",
"num-of-cylinders", "engine-size","fuel-
system","bore","stroke","compression-ratio","horsepower",
"peak-rpm","city-mpg","highway-mpg","price"]
print("headers\n", headers)

headers
['symboling', 'normalized-losses', 'make', 'fuel-type', 'aspiration', 'num-
of-doors', 'body-style', 'drive-wheels', 'engine-location', 'wheel-base',
'length', 'width', 'height', 'curb-weight', 'engine-type', 'num-of-
cylinders', 'engine-size', 'fuel-system', 'bore', 'stroke', 'compression-
ratio', 'horsepower', 'peak-rpm', 'city-mpg', 'highway-mpg', 'price']

# Then, we use df.columns = headers to replace the headers by the list we

created.
df.columns = headers
df
# It has missing data, categorial data mpg instead of kmL
 symboling normalized-losses make fuel-type aspiration \
0 3 ? alfa-romero gas std
1 3 ? alfa-romero gas std
2 1 ? alfa-romero gas std
3 2 164 audi gas std
4 2 164 audi gas std
.. ... ... ... ... ...
200 -1 95 volvo gas std
201 -1 95 volvo gas turbo
202 -1 95 volvo gas std
203 -1 95 volvo diesel turbo
204 -1 95 volvo gas turbo

num-of-doors body-style drive-wheels engine-location wheel-base ...

\
0 two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
1 two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
2 two hatchback rwd front 94.5 ...
3 four sedan fwd front 99.8 ...
4 four sedan 4wd front 99.4 ...
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
200 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...
201 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...
202 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...
203 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...
204 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...

engine-size fuel-system bore stroke compression-ratio horsepower \

0 130 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111
1 130 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111
2 152 mpfi 2.68 3.47 9.0 154
3 109 mpfi 3.19 3.40 10.0 102
4 136 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.0 115
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
200 141 mpfi 3.78 3.15 9.5 114
201 141 mpfi 3.78 3.15 8.7 160
202 173 mpfi 3.58 2.87 8.8 134
203 145 idi 3.01 3.40 23.0 106
204 141 mpfi 3.78 3.15 9.5 114

peak-rpm city-mpg highway-mpg price

0 5000 21 27 13495
1 5000 21 27 16500
2 5000 19 26 16500
3 5500 24 30 13950
4 5500 18 22 17450
.. ... ... ... ...
200 5400 23 28 16845
201 5300 19 25 19045
202 5500 18 23 21485
203 4800 26 27 22470
204 5400 19 25 22625

[205 rows x 26 columns]

# Save this file/dataset : df. to_csv/excel/json/sql("name.csv")

df.to_csv("automobile.csv",index=False)

# Basic Analysis
df.shape
# The df has 205 records with 26 attributes

(205, 26)

df.describe ()
# describe will only work on numeric data

symboling wheel-base length width height \

count 205.000000 205.000000 205.000000 205.000000 205.000000
mean 0.834146 98.756585 174.049268 65.907805 53.724878
std 1.245307 6.021776 12.337289 2.145204 2.443522
min -2.000000 86.600000 141.100000 60.300000 47.800000
25% 0.000000 94.500000 166.300000 64.100000 52.000000
50% 1.000000 97.000000 173.200000 65.500000 54.100000
75% 2.000000 102.400000 183.100000 66.900000 55.500000
max 3.000000 120.900000 208.100000 72.300000 59.800000

curb-weight engine-size compression-ratio city-mpg highway-mpg

count 205.000000 205.000000 205.000000 205.000000 205.000000
mean 2555.565854 126.907317 10.142537 25.219512 30.751220
std 520.680204 41.642693 3.972040 6.542142 6.886443
min 1488.000000 61.000000 7.000000 13.000000 16.000000
25% 2145.000000 97.000000 8.600000 19.000000 25.000000
50% 2414.000000 120.000000 9.000000 24.000000 30.000000
75% 2935.000000 141.000000 9.400000 30.000000 34.000000
max 4066.000000 326.000000 23.000000 49.000000 54.000000

# To get all description

df.describe (include='all')

symboling normalized-losses make fuel-type aspiration \

count 205.000000 205 205 205 205
unique NaN 52 22 2 2
top NaN ? toyota gas std
freq NaN 41 32 185 168
mean 0.834146 NaN NaN NaN NaN
std 1.245307 NaN NaN NaN NaN
min -2.000000 NaN NaN NaN NaN
25% 0.000000 NaN NaN NaN NaN
50% 1.000000 NaN NaN NaN NaN
75% 2.000000 NaN NaN NaN NaN
max 3.000000 NaN NaN NaN NaN

num-of-doors body-style drive-wheels engine-location wheel-base ...

\
count 205 205 205 205 205.000000 ...
unique 3 5 3 2 NaN ...
top four sedan fwd front NaN ...
freq 114 96 120 202 NaN ...
mean NaN NaN NaN NaN 98.756585 ...
std NaN NaN NaN NaN 6.021776 ...
min NaN NaN NaN NaN 86.600000 ...
25% NaN NaN NaN NaN 94.500000 ...
50% NaN NaN NaN NaN 97.000000 ...
75% NaN NaN NaN NaN 102.400000 ...
max NaN NaN NaN NaN 120.900000 ...

engine-size fuel-system bore stroke compression-ratio horsepower

\
count 205.000000 205 205 205 205.000000 205
unique NaN 8 39 37 NaN 60
top NaN mpfi 3.62 3.40 NaN 68
freq NaN 94 23 20 NaN 19
mean 126.907317 NaN NaN NaN 10.142537 NaN
std 41.642693 NaN NaN NaN 3.972040 NaN
min 61.000000 NaN NaN NaN 7.000000 NaN
25% 97.000000 NaN NaN NaN 8.600000 NaN
50% 120.000000 NaN NaN NaN 9.000000 NaN
75% 141.000000 NaN NaN NaN 9.400000 NaN
max 326.000000 NaN NaN NaN 23.000000 NaN

peak-rpm city-mpg highway-mpg price

count 205 205.000000 205.000000 205
unique 24 NaN NaN 187
top 5500 NaN NaN ?
freq 37 NaN NaN 4
mean NaN 25.219512 30.751220 NaN
std NaN 6.542142 6.886443 NaN
min NaN 13.000000 16.000000 NaN
25% NaN 19.000000 25.000000 NaN
50% NaN 24.000000 30.000000 NaN
75% NaN 30.000000 34.000000 NaN
max NaN 49.000000 54.000000 NaN

[11 rows x 26 columns]

# Basic insight of data

print (df.dtypes)
# This will return the types of data we have. Look carefully if anything does
not make sense
# If needed change the type
symboling int64
normalized-losses object
make object
fuel-type object
aspiration object
num-of-doors object
body-style object
drive-wheels object
engine-location object
wheel-base float64
length float64
width float64
height float64
curb-weight int64
engine-type object
num-of-cylinders object
engine-size int64
fuel-system object
bore object
stroke object
compression-ratio float64
horsepower object
peak-rpm object
city-mpg int64
highway-mpg int64
price object
dtype: object

# Another way to check the dataset is

df.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 205 entries, 0 to 204
Data columns (total 26 columns):
# Column Non-Null Count Dtype
--- ------ -------------- -----
0 symboling 205 non-null int64
1 normalized-losses 205 non-null object
2 make 205 non-null object
3 fuel-type 205 non-null object
4 aspiration 205 non-null object
5 num-of-doors 205 non-null object
6 body-style 205 non-null object
7 drive-wheels 205 non-null object
8 engine-location 205 non-null object
9 wheel-base 205 non-null float64
10 length 205 non-null float64
11 width 205 non-null float64
12 height 205 non-null float64
13 curb-weight 205 non-null int64
 14 engine-type 205 non-null object
15 num-of-cylinders 205 non-null object
16 engine-size 205 non-null int64
17 fuel-system 205 non-null object
18 bore 205 non-null object
19 stroke 205 non-null object
20 compression-ratio 205 non-null float64
21 horsepower 205 non-null object
22 peak-rpm 205 non-null object
23 city-mpg 205 non-null int64
24 highway-mpg 205 non-null int64
25 price 205 non-null object
dtypes: float64(5), int64(5), object(16)
memory usage: 41.8+ KB

# Change data type

# Identify missing values

# Handling missing value
#Correct data format

# Handling missing data

# Replace all ? to NaN. This is python missing default.
# For this we have to import numpy
df.replace("?", np.nan, inplace = True)
df.head(5)
# Here we will replace ? to NaN
# True stands for miising value< False stands for not missing value

symboling normalized-losses make fuel-type aspiration num-of-doors

\
0 3 NaN alfa-romero gas std two
1 3 NaN alfa-romero gas std two
2 1 NaN alfa-romero gas std two
3 2 164 audi gas std four
4 2 164 audi gas std four

body-style drive-wheels engine-location wheel-base ... engine-size \

0 convertible rwd front 88.6 ... 130
1 convertible rwd front 88.6 ... 130
2 hatchback rwd front 94.5 ... 152
3 sedan fwd front 99.8 ... 109
4 sedan 4wd front 99.4 ... 136

fuel-system bore stroke compression-ratio horsepower peak-rpm city-mpg

\
0 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000 21
1 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000 21
2 mpfi 2.68 3.47 9.0 154 5000 19
3 mpfi 3.19 3.40 10.0 102 5500 24
4 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.0 115 5500 18
 highway-mpg price
0 27 13495
1 27 16500
2 26 16500
3 30 13950
4 22 17450

[5 rows x 26 columns]

# Evaluating for Missing Data

# There are two methods to detect missing data:
# missing_data = df.isnull()
#missing_data = df.isnotnull()

#Count missing values in each column

for column in missing_data.columns.values.tolist():
print(column)
print (missing_data[column].value_counts())
print("")

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NameError Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-29-7f92af5bf2bd> in <module>
1 #Count missing values in each column
----> 2 for column in missing_data.columns.values.tolist():
3 print(column)
4 print (missing_data[column].value_counts())
5 print("")

NameError: name 'missing_data' is not defined

Based on the summary above, each column has 205 rows of data, seven columns containing
missing data:
"normalized-losses": 41 missing data "num-of-doors": 2 missing data "bore": 4 missing data
"stroke" : 4 missing data "horsepower": 2 missing data "peak-rpm": 2 missing data "price":
4 missing data we do not want to replace the value of price as it is the dependent variable
but we can drop the records with null value

How to deal with missing data?

drop data
a. drop the whole row
b. drop the whole column

replace data
a. replace it by mean- for numeric data
b. replace it by frequency- for categorical data
c. replace it based on other functions
Repalce by mean columns-- normalized-losses(41), stroke (4), bore(4), horsepower(2),
peak-rpm(2) Repalce by frequency -- num of doors (2),
# Calculate the avg of the column
avg_norm_loss = df["normalized-losses"].astype("float").mean(axis=0)
print("Average of normalized-losses:", avg_norm_loss)
# first we defined avg function then print

Average of normalized-losses: 122.0

#Replace "NaN" by mean value in "normalized-losses" column

df["normalized-losses"].replace(np.nan, avg_norm_loss, inplace=True)

avg_stroke = df["stroke"].astype("float").mean(axis=0)
print("Average of stroke:", avg_stroke)
df["stroke"].replace(np.nan, avg_stroke, inplace=True)

Average of stroke: 3.2554228855721337

avg_bore=df['bore'].astype('float').mean(axis=0)
print("Average of bore:", avg_bore)
df["bore"].replace(np.nan, avg_bore, inplace=True)

Average of bore: 3.3297512437810957

avg_horsepower = df['horsepower'].astype('float').mean(axis=0)
print("Average horsepower:", avg_horsepower)
df['horsepower'].replace(np.nan, avg_horsepower, inplace=True)

Average horsepower: 104.25615763546799

avg_peakrpm=df['peak-rpm'].astype('float').mean(axis=0)
print("Average peak rpm:", avg_peakrpm)
df['peak-rpm'].replace(np.nan, avg_peakrpm, inplace=True)

Average peak rpm: 5125.369458128079

# To replace the number of doors we need to find the frequency/mode

# First we do value counts
df['num-of-doors'].value_counts()
# four doors are more frequent

four 114
two 89
Name: num-of-doors, dtype: int64

#We can also use the ".idxmax()" method to calculate for us the most common
type automatically:
df['num-of-doors'].value_counts().idxmax()

'four'
#replace the missing 'num-of-doors' values by the most frequent
df["num-of-doors"].replace(np.nan, "four", inplace=True)

#Finally, let's drop all rows that do not have price data:
# simply drop whole row with NaN in "price" column
df.dropna(subset=["price"], axis=0, inplace=True)
# axis=0 for row, axis =1 for dropping the column

# reset index, because we droped two rows

df.reset_index(drop=True, inplace=True)

df.head(7)
# Now we got data with no missing values

symboling normalized-losses make fuel-type aspiration num-of-doors

\
0 3 122 alfa-romero gas std two
1 3 122 alfa-romero gas std two
2 1 122 alfa-romero gas std two
3 2 164 audi gas std four
4 2 164 audi gas std four
5 2 122 audi gas std two
6 1 158 audi gas std four

body-style drive-wheels engine-location wheel-base ... engine-size \

0 convertible rwd front 88.6 ... 130
1 convertible rwd front 88.6 ... 130
2 hatchback rwd front 94.5 ... 152
3 sedan fwd front 99.8 ... 109
4 sedan 4wd front 99.4 ... 136
5 sedan fwd front 99.8 ... 136
6 sedan fwd front 105.8 ... 136

fuel-system bore stroke compression-ratio horsepower peak-rpm city-mpg

\
0 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000 21
1 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000 21
2 mpfi 2.68 3.47 9.0 154 5000 19
3 mpfi 3.19 3.40 10.0 102 5500 24
4 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.0 115 5500 18
5 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.5 110 5500 19
6 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.5 110 5500 19

highway-mpg price
0 27 13495
1 27 16500
2 26 16500
3 30 13950
4 22 17450
5 25 15250
6 25 17710

[7 rows x 26 columns]

Data Formatting
Correct data format In Pandas, we use
.dtype() to check the data type
.astype() to change the data type
# First see the data types
df.dtypes

symboling int64
normalized-losses object
make object
fuel-type object
aspiration object
num-of-doors object
body-style object
drive-wheels object
engine-location object
wheel-base float64
length float64
width float64
height float64
curb-weight int64
engine-type object
num-of-cylinders object
engine-size int64
fuel-system object
bore object
stroke object
compression-ratio float64
horsepower object
peak-rpm object
city-mpg int64
highway-mpg int64
price object
dtype: object

As we can see above, some columns are not of the correct data type. Numerical variables
should have type 'float' or 'int', and variables with strings such as categories should have
type 'object'. For example, 'bore' and 'stroke' variables are numerical values that describe
the engines, so we should expect them to be of the type 'float' or 'int'; however, they are
shown as type 'object'. We have to convert data types into a proper format for each column
using the "astype()" method.
df[["bore", "stroke"]] = df[["bore", "stroke"]].astype("float")
df[["normalized-losses"]] = df[["normalized-losses"]].astype("int")
df[["price"]] = df[["price"]].astype("float")
df[["peak-rpm"]] = df[["peak-rpm"]].astype("float")

df.dtypes
# Now everything is in correct format

symboling int64
normalized-losses int32
make object
fuel-type object
aspiration object
num-of-doors object
body-style object
drive-wheels object
engine-location object
wheel-base float64
length float64
width float64
height float64
curb-weight int64
engine-type object
num-of-cylinders object
engine-size int64
fuel-system object
bore float64
stroke float64
compression-ratio float64
horsepower object
peak-rpm float64
city-mpg int64
highway-mpg int64
price float64
dtype: object

df.head()

symboling normalized-losses make fuel-type aspiration \

0 3 122 alfa-romero gas std
1 3 122 alfa-romero gas std
2 1 122 alfa-romero gas std
3 2 164 audi gas std
4 2 164 audi gas std

num-of-doors body-style drive-wheels engine-location wheel-base ... \

0 two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
1 two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
2 two hatchback rwd front 94.5 ...
3 four sedan fwd front 99.8 ...
4 four sedan 4wd front 99.4 ...
 engine-size fuel-system bore stroke compression-ratio horsepower \
0 130 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111
1 130 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111
2 152 mpfi 2.68 3.47 9.0 154
3 109 mpfi 3.19 3.40 10.0 102
4 136 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.0 115

peak-rpm city-mpg highway-mpg price

0 5000.0 21 27 13495.0
1 5000.0 21 27 16500.0
2 5000.0 19 26 16500.0
3 5500.0 24 30 13950.0
4 5500.0 18 22 17450.0

[5 rows x 26 columns]

Data Standardization :
Data is usually collected from different agencies with different formats. Standardization is
the process of transforming data into a common format which allows the researcher to
make the meaningful comparison. Example: NY, newyork to NY. In this case we will convert
Transform mpg to L/100km: The formula for unit conversion is
L/100km = 235 / mpg
# Convert mpg to L/100km by mathematical operation (235 divided by mpg)
df['city-L/100km'] = 235/df["city-mpg"]

# check your transformed data

df.head()
# That added a new column as city lkm. we can drop the whole col if we want

symboling normalized-losses make fuel-type aspiration \

0 3 122 alfa-romero gas std
1 3 122 alfa-romero gas std
2 1 122 alfa-romero gas std
3 2 164 audi gas std
4 2 164 audi gas std

num-of-doors body-style drive-wheels engine-location wheel-base ... \

0 two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
1 two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
2 two hatchback rwd front 94.5 ...
3 four sedan fwd front 99.8 ...
4 four sedan 4wd front 99.4 ...

fuel-system bore stroke compression-ratio horsepower peak-rpm city-mpg

\
0 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000.0 21
1 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000.0 21
2 mpfi 2.68 3.47 9.0 154 5000.0 19
3 mpfi 3.19 3.40 10.0 102 5500.0 24
4 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.0 115 5500.0 18

highway-mpg price city-L/100km

0 27 13495.0 11.190476
1 27 16500.0 11.190476
2 26 16500.0 12.368421
3 30 13950.0 9.791667
4 22 17450.0 13.055556

[5 rows x 27 columns]

Data Normalization
Why normalization?
Normalization is the process of transforming values of several variables into a similar
range. Typical normalizations include scaling the variable so the variable average is 0,
scaling the variable so the variance is 1, or scaling variable so the variable values range
from 0 to 1
Example
To demonstrate normalization, let's say we want to scale the columns "length", "width" and
"height"
Target:would like to Normalize those variables so their value ranges from 0 to 1.
Approach: replace original value by (original value)/(maximum value)
# replace (original value) by (original value)/(maximum value)
df['length'] = df['length']/df['length'].max()
df['width'] = df['width']/df['width'].max()
df['height'] = df['height']/df['height'].max()

# show the scaled columns

df[["length","width","height"]].head(10)

length width height

0 0.811148 0.890278 0.816054
1 0.811148 0.890278 0.816054
2 0.822681 0.909722 0.876254
3 0.848630 0.919444 0.908027
4 0.848630 0.922222 0.908027
5 0.851994 0.920833 0.887960
6 0.925997 0.991667 0.931438
7 0.925997 0.991667 0.931438
8 0.925997 0.991667 0.934783
9 0.849592 0.900000 0.908027
df

symboling normalized-losses make fuel-type aspiration \

0 3 122 alfa-romero gas std
1 3 122 alfa-romero gas std
2 1 122 alfa-romero gas std
3 2 164 audi gas std
4 2 164 audi gas std
.. ... ... ... ... ...
196 -1 95 volvo gas std
197 -1 95 volvo gas turbo
198 -1 95 volvo gas std
199 -1 95 volvo diesel turbo
200 -1 95 volvo gas turbo

num-of-doors body-style drive-wheels engine-location wheel-base ...

\
0 two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
1 two convertible rwd front 88.6 ...
2 two hatchback rwd front 94.5 ...
3 four sedan fwd front 99.8 ...
4 four sedan 4wd front 99.4 ...
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
196 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...
197 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...
198 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...
199 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...
200 four sedan rwd front 109.1 ...

fuel-system bore stroke compression-ratio horsepower peak-rpm \

0 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000.0
1 mpfi 3.47 2.68 9.0 111 5000.0
2 mpfi 2.68 3.47 9.0 154 5000.0
3 mpfi 3.19 3.40 10.0 102 5500.0
4 mpfi 3.19 3.40 8.0 115 5500.0
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
196 mpfi 3.78 3.15 9.5 114 5400.0
197 mpfi 3.78 3.15 8.7 160 5300.0
198 mpfi 3.58 2.87 8.8 134 5500.0
199 idi 3.01 3.40 23.0 106 4800.0
200 mpfi 3.78 3.15 9.5 114 5400.0

city-mpg highway-mpg price city-L/100km

0 21 27 13495.0 11.190476
1 21 27 16500.0 11.190476
2 19 26 16500.0 12.368421
3 24 30 13950.0 9.791667
4 18 22 17450.0 13.055556
.. ... ... ... ...
196 23 28 16845.0 10.217391
197 19 25 19045.0 12.368421
198 18 23 21485.0 13.055556
199 26 27 22470.0 9.038462
200 19 25 22625.0 12.368421

[201 rows x 27 columns]

Binning
Why binning?
Binning is a process of transforming continuous numerical variables into discrete
categorical 'bins', for grouped analysis. In our dataset, "horsepower" is a real valued
variable ranging from 48 to 288, it has 57 unique values. What if we only care about the
price difference between cars with high horsepower, medium horsepower, and little
horsepower (3 types)? Can we rearrange them into three ‘bins' to simplify analysis?
We will use the Pandas method 'cut' to segment the 'horsepower' column into 3 bins
# Since we are binning hp we have to convert the type to int from object
df["horsepower"]=df["horsepower"].astype(int, copy=True)

# We want to see the distribution after we applied binning. So we import

matplotlib
%matplotlib inline
import matplotlib as plt
from matplotlib import pyplot
plt.pyplot.hist(df["horsepower"])
# we got the histragram of hp distribution

(array([44., 45., 48., 24., 14., 16., 5., 4., 0., 1.]),
array([ 48. , 69.4, 90.8, 112.2, 133.6, 155. , 176.4, 197.8, 219.2,
240.6, 262. ]),
<BarContainer object of 10 artists>)
# But we are missing the labeling
# set x/y labels and plot title
plt.pyplot.xlabel("horsepower")
plt.pyplot.ylabel("count")
plt.pyplot.title("horsepower bins")
#
plt.pyplot.hist(df["horsepower"])

(array([44., 45., 48., 24., 14., 16., 5., 4., 0., 1.]),
array([ 48. , 69.4, 90.8, 112.2, 133.6, 155. , 176.4, 197.8, 219.2,
240.6, 262. ]),
<BarContainer object of 10 artists>)
# We want 3 equal size bandwith for binning
#We would like 3 bins of equal size bandwidth so we use numpy's
linspace(start_value, end_value, numbers_generated function.

Since we want to include the minimum value of horsepower we want to set

start_value=min(df["horsepower"]).
Since we want to include the maximum value of horsepower we want to set
end_value=max(df["horsepower"]).
Since we are building 3 bins of equal length, there should be 4 dividers, so
numbers_generated=4.
We build a bin array, with a minimum value to a maximum value, with bandwidth
calculated above. The bins will be values used to determine when one bin ends and another
begins.
bins = np.linspace(min(df["horsepower"]), max(df["horsepower"]), 4)
bins

array([ 48. , 119.33333333, 190.66666667, 262. ])

We need to set group names bins = np.linspace(min(df["horsepower"]),

max(df["horsepower"]), 4) bins
#We apply the function "cut" the determine what each value of "df['horsepower']" belongs
to.
df['horsepower-binned'] = pd.cut(df['horsepower'], bins, labels=group_names,
include_lowest=True ) df[['horsepower','horsepower-binned']].head()
#Lets see the number of vehicles in each bin. df["horsepower-binned"].value_counts()
#Lets plot the distribution of each bin. %matplotlib inline import matplotlib as plt from
matplotlib import pyplot pyplot.bar(group_names, df["horsepower-
binned"].value_counts())
#set x/y labels and plot title plt.pyplot.xlabel("horsepower") plt.pyplot.ylabel("count")
plt.pyplot.title("horsepower bins")
%matplotlib inline
import matplotlib as plt
from matplotlib import pyplot

# draw historgram of attribute "horsepower" with bins = 3

plt.pyplot.hist(df["horsepower"], bins = 3)

# set x/y labels and plot title

plt.pyplot.xlabel("horsepower")
plt.pyplot.ylabel("count")
plt.pyplot.title("horsepower bins")

Text(0.5, 1.0, 'horsepower bins')

### Dummy(Indicator) variable

What is an indicator variable?
An indicator variable (or dummy variable) is a numerical variable used to label categories.
They are called 'dummies' because the numbers themselves don't have inherent meaning.
Why we use indicator variables?
So we can use categorical variables for regression analysis in the later modules.
Example
We see the column "fuel-type" has two unique values, "gas" or "diesel". Regression doesn't
understand words, only numbers. To use this attribute in regression analysis, we convert
"fuel-type" into indicator variables.
We will use the panda's method 'get_dummies' to assign numerical values to different
categories of fuel type.
df.columns

Index(['symboling', 'normalized-losses', 'make', 'fuel-type', 'aspiration',

'num-of-doors', 'body-style', 'drive-wheels', 'engine-location',
'wheel-base', 'length', 'width', 'height', 'curb-weight', 'engine-
type',
'num-of-cylinders', 'engine-size', 'fuel-system', 'bore', 'stroke',
'compression-ratio', 'horsepower', 'peak-rpm', 'city-mpg',
'highway-mpg', 'price', 'city-L/100km'],
dtype='object')

#get indicator variables and assign it to data frame "dummy_variable_1"

dummy_variable_1 = pd.get_dummies(df["fuel-type"])
dummy_variable_1.head()
#change column names for clarity
dummy_variable_1.rename(columns={'gas':'fuel-type-gas', 'diesel':'fuel-type-
diesel'}, inplace=True)
dummy_variable_1.head()

fuel-type-diesel fuel-type-gas
0 0 1
1 0 1
2 0 1
3 0 1
4 0 1

# As we two columns we can concat/merge and delete the original column

# merge data frame "df" and "dummy_variable_1"
df = pd.concat([df, dummy_variable_1], axis=1)

# drop original column "fuel-type" from "df"

df.drop("fuel-type", axis = 1, inplace=True)
# get indicator variables of aspiration and assign it to data frame
"dummy_variable_2"
dummy_variable_2 = pd.get_dummies(df['aspiration'])

# change column names for clarity

dummy_variable_2.rename(columns={'std':'aspiration-std', 'turbo':
'aspiration-turbo'}, inplace=True)

# show first 5 instances of data frame "dummy_variable_1"

dummy_variable_2.head()

aspiration-std aspiration-turbo
0 1 0
1 1 0
2 1 0
3 1 0
4 1 0

# merge the new dataframe to the original datafram

df = pd.concat([df, dummy_variable_2], axis=1)

# drop original column "aspiration" from "df"

df.drop('aspiration', axis = 1, inplace=True)

df.head()

symboling normalized-losses make num-of-doors body-style \

0 3 122 alfa-romero two convertible
1 3 122 alfa-romero two convertible
2 1 122 alfa-romero two hatchback
3 2 164 audi four sedan
4 2 164 audi four sedan

drive-wheels engine-location wheel-base length width ... \

0 rwd front 88.6 0.811148 0.890278 ...
1 rwd front 88.6 0.811148 0.890278 ...
2 rwd front 94.5 0.822681 0.909722 ...
3 fwd front 99.8 0.848630 0.919444 ...
4 4wd front 99.4 0.848630 0.922222 ...

horsepower peak-rpm city-mpg highway-mpg price city-L/100km \

0 111 5000.0 21 27 13495.0 11.190476
1 111 5000.0 21 27 16500.0 11.190476
2 154 5000.0 19 26 16500.0 12.368421
3 102 5500.0 24 30 13950.0 9.791667
4 115 5500.0 18 22 17450.0 13.055556

fuel-type-diesel fuel-type-gas aspiration-std aspiration-turbo

0 0 1 1 0
1 0 1 1 0
2 0 1 1 0
3 0 1 1 0
4 0 1 1 0

[5 rows x 29 columns]

df.columns

Index(['symboling', 'normalized-losses', 'make', 'num-of-doors', 'body-

style',
'drive-wheels', 'engine-location', 'wheel-base', 'length', 'width',
'height', 'curb-weight', 'engine-type', 'num-of-cylinders',
'engine-size', 'fuel-system', 'bore', 'stroke', 'compression-ratio',
'horsepower', 'peak-rpm', 'city-mpg', 'highway-mpg', 'price',
'city-L/100km', 'fuel-type-diesel', 'fuel-type-gas', 'aspiration-std',
'aspiration-turbo'],
dtype='object')

#Save the new csv

df.to_csv('clean_df.csv')

Descriptive Statistical Analysis of clean dataset

df.describe (include='all')
# To see all summary

symboling normalized-losses make num-of-doors body-style \

count 201.000000 201.00000 201 201 201
unique NaN NaN 22 2 5
top NaN NaN toyota four sedan
freq NaN NaN 32 115 94
mean 0.840796 122.00000 NaN NaN NaN
std 1.254802 31.99625 NaN NaN NaN
min -2.000000 65.00000 NaN NaN NaN
25% 0.000000 101.00000 NaN NaN NaN
50% 1.000000 122.00000 NaN NaN NaN
75% 2.000000 137.00000 NaN NaN NaN
max 3.000000 256.00000 NaN NaN NaN

drive-wheels engine-location wheel-base length width ...

\
count 201 201 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 ...
unique 3 2 NaN NaN NaN ...
top fwd front NaN NaN NaN ...
freq 118 198 NaN NaN NaN ...
mean NaN NaN 98.797015 0.837102 0.915126 ...
std NaN NaN 6.066366 0.059213 0.029187 ...
min NaN NaN 86.600000 0.678039 0.837500 ...
25% NaN NaN 94.500000 0.801538 0.890278 ...
50% NaN NaN 97.000000 0.832292 0.909722 ...
75% NaN NaN 102.400000 0.881788 0.925000 ...
max NaN NaN 120.900000 1.000000 1.000000 ...
 horsepower peak-rpm city-mpg highway-mpg price \
count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
unique NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
top NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
freq NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
mean 103.402985 5117.665368 25.179104 30.686567 13207.129353
std 37.365650 478.113805 6.423220 6.815150 7947.066342
min 48.000000 4150.000000 13.000000 16.000000 5118.000000
25% 70.000000 4800.000000 19.000000 25.000000 7775.000000
50% 95.000000 5125.369458 24.000000 30.000000 10295.000000
75% 116.000000 5500.000000 30.000000 34.000000 16500.000000
max 262.000000 6600.000000 49.000000 54.000000 45400.000000

city-L/100km fuel-type-diesel fuel-type-gas aspiration-std \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
unique NaN NaN NaN NaN
top NaN NaN NaN NaN
freq NaN NaN NaN NaN
mean 9.944145 0.099502 0.900498 0.820896
std 2.534599 0.300083 0.300083 0.384397
min 4.795918 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
25% 7.833333 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
50% 9.791667 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
75% 12.368421 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
max 18.076923 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000

aspiration-turbo
count 201.000000
unique NaN
top NaN
freq NaN
mean 0.179104
std 0.384397
min 0.000000
25% 0.000000
50% 0.000000
75% 0.000000
max 1.000000

[11 rows x 29 columns]

df.describe()
# Summary of numeric variables

symboling normalized-losses wheel-base length width \

count 201.000000 201.00000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
mean 0.840796 122.00000 98.797015 0.837102 0.915126
std 1.254802 31.99625 6.066366 0.059213 0.029187
min -2.000000 65.00000 86.600000 0.678039 0.837500
25% 0.000000 101.00000 94.500000 0.801538 0.890278
50% 1.000000 122.00000 97.000000 0.832292 0.909722
75% 2.000000 137.00000 102.400000 0.881788 0.925000
max 3.000000 256.00000 120.900000 1.000000 1.000000

height curb-weight engine-size bore stroke ... \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 ...
mean 0.899108 2555.666667 126.875622 3.330692 3.256874 ...
std 0.040933 517.296727 41.546834 0.268072 0.316048 ...
min 0.799331 1488.000000 61.000000 2.540000 2.070000 ...
25% 0.869565 2169.000000 98.000000 3.150000 3.110000 ...
50% 0.904682 2414.000000 120.000000 3.310000 3.290000 ...
75% 0.928094 2926.000000 141.000000 3.580000 3.410000 ...
max 1.000000 4066.000000 326.000000 3.940000 4.170000 ...

horsepower peak-rpm city-mpg highway-mpg price \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
mean 103.402985 5117.665368 25.179104 30.686567 13207.129353
std 37.365650 478.113805 6.423220 6.815150 7947.066342
min 48.000000 4150.000000 13.000000 16.000000 5118.000000
25% 70.000000 4800.000000 19.000000 25.000000 7775.000000
50% 95.000000 5125.369458 24.000000 30.000000 10295.000000
75% 116.000000 5500.000000 30.000000 34.000000 16500.000000
max 262.000000 6600.000000 49.000000 54.000000 45400.000000

city-L/100km fuel-type-diesel fuel-type-gas aspiration-std \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
mean 9.944145 0.099502 0.900498 0.820896
std 2.534599 0.300083 0.300083 0.384397
min 4.795918 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
25% 7.833333 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
50% 9.791667 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
75% 12.368421 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
max 18.076923 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000

aspiration-turbo
count 201.000000
mean 0.179104
std 0.384397
min 0.000000
25% 0.000000
50% 0.000000
75% 0.000000
max 1.000000

[8 rows x 21 columns]

df.describe(include=['object'])
#Summary of categorial variables
 make num-of-doors body-style drive-wheels engine-location \
count 201 201 201 201 201
unique 22 2 5 3 2
top toyota four sedan fwd front
freq 32 115 94 118 198

engine-type num-of-cylinders fuel-system

count 201 201 201
unique 6 7 8
top ohc four mpfi
freq 145 157 92

Value Counts
Value-counts is a good way of understanding how many units of each
characteristic/variable we have. Don’t forget the method "value_counts" only works on
Pandas series, not Pandas Dataframes. As a result, we only include one bracket "df['drive-
wheels']" not two brackets "df[['drive-wheels']]".
df['drive-wheels'].value_counts()

fwd 118
rwd 75
4wd 8
Name: drive-wheels, dtype: int64

# We can convert the series to a Dataframe as follows :

df['drive-wheels'].value_counts().to_frame()

drive-wheels
fwd 118
rwd 75
4wd 8

# Let's repeat the above steps but save the results to the dataframe
#"drive_wheels_counts" and rename the column 'drive-wheels' to
'value_counts'.

# drive_wheels_counts as variable
drive_wheels_counts = df['drive-wheels'].value_counts().to_frame()
drive_wheels_counts.rename(columns={'drive-wheels': 'value_counts'},
inplace=True)
drive_wheels_counts.index.name = 'drive-wheels'
drive_wheels_counts.head(10)

value_counts
drive-wheels
fwd 118
rwd 75
4wd 8
drive wheels counts can be a good predictor as it is distributed almost evenly except for the
4wd
# engine-location as variable
engine_loc_counts = df['engine-location'].value_counts().to_frame()
engine_loc_counts.rename(columns={'engine-location': 'value_counts'},
inplace=True)
engine_loc_counts.index.name = 'engine-location'
engine_loc_counts.head(10)

value_counts
engine-location
front 198
rear 3

Examining the value counts of the engine location would not be a good predictor variable
for the price. This is because we only have three cars with a rear engine and 198 with an
engine in the front, this result is skewed. Thus, we are not able to draw any conclusions
about the engine location.

Analyzing Individual Feature Patterns using Visualization

Visualization is very important in data science, and Python visualization packages provide
great freedom.
# To install seaborn we use the pip which is the python package manager
%%capture
! pip install seaborn
# Import visualization packages "Matplotlib" and "Seaborn",
# don't forget about "%matplotlib inline" to plot in a Jupyter notebook.

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

import seaborn as sns
%matplotlib inline

UsageError: Line magic function `%%capture` not found.

How to choose the right visualization method?

When visualizing individual variables, it is important to first understand what type of
variable you are dealing with. This will help us find the right visualization method for that
variable. For example, we can calculate the correlation between variables of type "int64" or
"float64" using the method "corr":
# list the data types for each column
print(df.dtypes)
#For example, we can calculate the correlation between variables of type
"int64" or "float64" using the method "corr":

symboling int64
normalized-losses int32
make object
num-of-doors object
body-style object
drive-wheels object
engine-location object
wheel-base float64
length float64
width float64
height float64
curb-weight int64
engine-type object
num-of-cylinders object
engine-size int64
fuel-system object
bore float64
stroke float64
compression-ratio float64
horsepower int32
peak-rpm float64
city-mpg int64
highway-mpg int64
price float64
city-L/100km float64
fuel-type-diesel uint8
fuel-type-gas uint8
aspiration-std uint8
aspiration-turbo uint8
dtype: object

Correlation and Causation

Correlation: a measure of the extent of interdependence between variables.
Causation: the relationship between cause and effect between two variables.
It is important to know the difference between these two and that correlation does not
imply causation. Determining correlation is much simpler the determining causation as
causation may require independent experimentation.
#### Pearson Correlation
The Pearson Correlation measures the linear dependence between two variables X and Y.
The resulting coefficient is a value between -1 and 1 inclusive, where:
1: Total positive linear correlation.
0: No linear correlation, the two variables most likely do not affect each
other.
-1: Total negative linear correlation.

sometimes we would like to know the significant of the correlation estimate.

# df.corr()- is python default to find corr
# Find the correlation between the following columns: bore,
stroke,compression-ratio , and horsepower.
df[['bore', 'stroke', 'compression-ratio', 'horsepower']].corr()

bore stroke compression-ratio horsepower

bore 1.000000 -0.055390 0.001263 0.566903
stroke -0.055390 1.000000 0.187871 0.098128
compression-ratio 0.001263 0.187871 1.000000 -0.214489
horsepower 0.566903 0.098128 -0.214489 1.000000

Continuous numerical variables visualization- scatterplots

Continuous numerical variables are variables that may contain any value within some
range. Continuous numerical variables can have the type "int64" or "float64". A great way
to visualize these variables is by using scatterplots with fitted lines.
In order to start understanding the (linear) relationship between an individual variable
and the price. We can do this by using "regplot", which plots the scatterplot plus the fitted
regression line for the data.
The coorelation between the dependent and independent variable can be strong/weak;
+ve/-ve ; linear/non linear in nature
# we find the corr between engine size and price
df[["engine-size", "price"]].corr()

engine-size price
engine-size 1.000000 0.872335
price 0.872335 1.000000

The corr between price and engine size is 0.87 which signifies there is a +ve relationship
between them. If engine size increases by 1 unit the price goes up by 0.87 unit, other
factors remaining constant
# Let's find the scatterplot of "engine-size" and "price"

# Engine size as potential predictor variable of price

# First we call regression plot and define x,y
import seaborn as sns
sns.regplot(x="engine-size", y="price", data=df)
# plt.ylim(0,)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='engine-size', ylabel='price'>
Let's look for some more relationships like highway milage, peak rpm, stroke on price
df[['highway-mpg', 'price']].corr()
# As the highway-mpg goes up, the price goes down:
#this indicates an inverse/negative relationship between these two variables.
#Highway mpg could potentially be a predictor of price.

highway-mpg price
highway-mpg 1.000000 -0.704692
price -0.704692 1.000000

The correlation between 'highway-mpg' and 'price' and see it's approximately -0.704
sns.regplot(x="highway-mpg", y="price", data=df)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='highway-mpg', ylabel='price'>
df[['peak-rpm','price']].corr()

peak-rpm price
peak-rpm 1.000000 -0.101616
price -0.101616 1.000000

The correlation between 'peak-rpm' and 'price' and see it's approximately -0.101616
sns.regplot(x="peak-rpm", y="price", data=df)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='peak-rpm', ylabel='price'>
df[["stroke","price"]].corr()

stroke price
stroke 1.000000 0.082269
price 0.082269 1.000000

The correlation is 0.0823, the non-diagonal elements of the table.

sns.regplot(x="stroke", y="price", data=df)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='stroke', ylabel='price'>
P-value:
The P-value is the probability value that the correlation between these two variables is
statistically significant. Normally, we choose a significance level of 0.05, which means that
we are 95% confident that the correlation between the variables is significant.
By convention, when the
p-value is < 0.001: we say there is strong evidence that the correlation is significant.
the p-value is < 0.05: there is moderate evidence that the correlation is significant.
the p-value is < 0.1: there is weak evidence that the correlation is significant.
the p-value is > 0.1: there is no evidence that the correlation is significant.
# We can obtain this information using "stats" module in the "scipy" library.

from scipy import stats

# Let us find the correlation between wheel-base and price

df[["wheel-base","price"]].corr()

wheel-base price
wheel-base 1.000000 0.584642
price 0.584642 1.000000

The correlation is 0.58, means there is a positive (weak) relationship between wheel-base
and price.
# Visualization
sns.regplot(x="wheel-base", y="price", data=df)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='wheel-base', ylabel='price'>

# Let's calculate the Pearson Correlation Coefficient and P-value of 'wheel-

base' and 'price'.
pearson_coef, p_value = stats.pearsonr(df['wheel-base'], df['price'])
print("The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is", pearson_coef, " with a P-
value of P =", p_value)

The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is 0.5846418222655083 with a P-value of

P = 8.076488270732873e-20

Conclusion: Since the p-value is < 0.001, the correlation between wheel-base and price is
statistically significant, although the linear relationship isn't extremely strong (~0.585)
# Horsepower vs Price
pearson_coef, p_value = stats.pearsonr(df['horsepower'], df['price'])
print("The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is", pearson_coef, " with a P-
value of P = ", p_value)

The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is 0.8096068016571052 with a P-value of

P = 6.273536270650862e-48

Since the p-value is < 0.001, the correlation between horsepower and price is statistically
significant, and the linear relationship is quite strong (~0.809, close to 1)
# Length vs Price
pearson_coef, p_value = stats.pearsonr(df['length'], df['price'])
print("The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is", pearson_coef, " with a P-
value of P = ", p_value)

The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is 0.6906283804483644 with a P-value of

P = 8.016477466158188e-30

Since the p-value is < 0.001, the correlation between length and price is statistically
significant, and the linear relationship is moderately strong (~0.691).
# Width vs Price
pearson_coef, p_value = stats.pearsonr(df['width'], df['price'])
print("The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is", pearson_coef, " with a P-
value of P =", p_value )

The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is 0.7512653440522674 with a P-value of

P = 9.200335510481516e-38

Since the p-value is < 0.001, the correlation between width and price is statistically
significant, and the linear relationship is quite strong (~0.751).
# Curb-weight vs Price
pearson_coef, p_value = stats.pearsonr(df['curb-weight'], df['price'])
print( "The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is", pearson_coef, " with a P-
value of P = ", p_value)

The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is 0.8344145257702849 with a P-value of

P = 2.1895772388933803e-53

Since the p-value is < 0.001, the correlation between curb-weight and price is statistically
significant, and the linear relationship is quite strong (~0.834).
# Engine-size vs Price
pearson_coef, p_value = stats.pearsonr(df['engine-size'], df['price'])
print("The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is", pearson_coef, " with a P-
value of P =", p_value)

The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is 0.8723351674455185 with a P-value of

P = 9.265491622198389e-64

Since the p-value is < 0.001, the correlation between engine-size and price is statistically
significant, and the linear relationship is very strong (~0.872).
# Bore vs Price
pearson_coef, p_value = stats.pearsonr(df['bore'], df['price'])
print("The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is", pearson_coef, " with a P-
value of P = ", p_value )

The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is 0.5431553832626606 with a P-value of

P = 8.049189483935032e-17

Since the p-value is <0.001, the correlation between bore and price is statistically
significant, but the linear relationship is only moderate (~0.521).
# City-mpg vs Price
pearson_coef, p_value = stats.pearsonr(df['city-mpg'], df['price'])
print("The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is", pearson_coef, " with a P-
value of P = ", p_value)

The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is -0.6865710067844681 with a P-value of

P = 2.3211320655673773e-29

Since the p-value is < 0.001, the correlation between city-mpg and price is statistically
significant, and the coefficient of ~ -0.687 shows that the relationship is negative and
moderately strong.
# Highway-mpg vs Price
pearson_coef, p_value = stats.pearsonr(df['highway-mpg'], df['price'])
print( "The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is", pearson_coef, " with a P-
value of P = ", p_value )

The Pearson Correlation Coefficient is -0.7046922650589533 with a P-value of

P = 1.7495471144474617e-31

Since the p-value is < 0.001, the correlation between highway-mpg and price is statistically
significant, and the coefficient of ~ -0.705 shows that the relationship is negative and
moderately strong.

Categorical variables visualization - boxplot

These are variables that describe a 'characteristic' of a data unit, and are selected from a
small group of categories. The categorical variables can have the type "object" or "int64". A
good way to visualize categorical variables is by using boxplots.
# Let's look at the relationship between "body-style" and "price".
sns.boxplot(x="body-style", y="price", data=df)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='body-style', ylabel='price'>
We see that the distributions of price between the different body-style categories have a
significant overlap, and so body-style would not be a good predictor of price
#Let's examine engine "engine-location" and "price":
sns.boxplot(x="engine-location", y="price", data=df)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='engine-location', ylabel='price'>
Here we see that the distribution of price between these two engine-location categories,
front and rear, are distinct enough to take engine-location as a potential good predictor of
price.
# Let's examine "drive-wheels" and "price"
sns.boxplot(x="drive-wheels", y="price", data=df)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='drive-wheels', ylabel='price'>

Here we see that the distribution of price between the different drive-wheels categories
differs; as such drive-wheels could potentially be a predictor of price.

Basics of Grouping
The "groupby" method groups data by different categories. The data is grouped based on
one or several variables and analysis is performed on the individual groups.
For example, let's group by the variable "drive-wheels". We see that there are 3 different
categories of drive wheels.
df['drive-wheels'].unique()

array(['rwd', 'fwd', '4wd'], dtype=object)

#If we want to know, on average, which type of drive wheel is most valuable,
# we can group "drive-wheels" and then average them.
# grouping results
df_group_one = df[['drive-wheels','body-style','price']]
# Here We selected the columns 'drive-wheels', 'body-style' and 'price',
# then assign it to the variable "df_group_one"
# grouping results (drive wheels only)
df_group_one = df_group_one.groupby(['drive-wheels'],as_index=False).mean()
df_group_one

drive-wheels price
0 4wd 10241.000000
1 fwd 9244.779661
2 rwd 19757.613333

From our data, it seems rear-wheel drive vehicles are, on average, the most expensive,
while 4-wheel and front-wheel are approximately the same in price.
# grouping results (body style only)
# df_group_one = df_group_one.groupby(['price'],as_index=False).mean()
# df_group_one
# Not working

#grouping results
df_gptest2 = df[['body-style','price']]
grouped_test_bodystyle = df_gptest2.groupby(['body-style'],as_index=
False).mean()
grouped_test_bodystyle

body-style price
0 convertible 21890.500000
1 hardtop 22208.500000
2 hatchback 9957.441176
3 sedan 14459.755319
4 wagon 12371.960000

# grouping results
df_gptest = df[['drive-wheels','body-style','price']]
grouped_test1 = df_gptest.groupby(['drive-wheels','body-
style'],as_index=False).mean()
grouped_test1

drive-wheels body-style price

0 4wd hatchback 7603.000000
1 4wd sedan 12647.333333
2 4wd wagon 9095.750000
3 fwd convertible 11595.000000
4 fwd hardtop 8249.000000
5 fwd hatchback 8396.387755
6 fwd sedan 9811.800000
7 fwd wagon 9997.333333
8 rwd convertible 23949.600000
9 rwd hardtop 24202.714286
10 rwd hatchback 14337.777778
11 rwd sedan 21711.833333
12 rwd wagon 16994.222222
Here rwd and hatchback type cars are expensive.
This grouped data is much easier to visualize when it is made into a pivot table. A pivot
table is like an Excel spreadsheet, with one variable along the column and another along
the row. We can convert the dataframe to a pivot table using the method "pivot " to create a
pivot table from the groups.
#In this case, we will leave the drive-wheel variable as the rows of the
table,
# and pivot body-style to become the columns of the table:
grouped_pivot = grouped_test1.pivot(index='drive-wheels',columns='body-
style')
grouped_pivot

price \
body-style convertible hardtop hatchback sedan
drive-wheels
4wd NaN NaN 7603.000000 12647.333333
fwd 11595.0 8249.000000 8396.387755 9811.800000
rwd 23949.6 24202.714286 14337.777778 21711.833333

body-style wagon
drive-wheels
4wd 9095.750000
fwd 9997.333333
rwd 16994.222222

Often, we won't have data for some of the pivot cells. We can fill these missing cells with the
value 0, but any other value could potentially be used as well. It should be mentioned that
missing data is quite a complex subject and is an entire course on its own
#fill missing values with 0
grouped_pivot = grouped_pivot.fillna(0)
grouped_pivot

price \
body-style convertible hardtop hatchback sedan
drive-wheels
4wd 0.0 0.000000 7603.000000 12647.333333
fwd 11595.0 8249.000000 8396.387755 9811.800000
rwd 23949.6 24202.714286 14337.777778 21711.833333

body-style wagon
drive-wheels
4wd 9095.750000
fwd 9997.333333
rwd 16994.222222
heat map
The heatmap plots the target variable (price) proportional to colour with respect to the
variables 'drive-wheel' and 'body-style' in the vertical and horizontal axis respectively. This
allows us to visualize how the price is related to 'drive-wheel' and 'body-style'.
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline
#use the grouped results
plt.pcolor(grouped_pivot, cmap='RdBu')
plt.colorbar()
plt.show()

#The default labels convey no useful information to us. Let's change that:
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
im = ax.pcolor(grouped_pivot, cmap='RdBu')

#label names
row_labels = grouped_pivot.columns.levels[1]
col_labels = grouped_pivot.index

#move ticks and labels to the center

ax.set_xticks(np.arange(grouped_pivot.shape[1]) + 0.5, minor=False)
ax.set_yticks(np.arange(grouped_pivot.shape[0]) + 0.5, minor=False)

#insert labels
ax.set_xticklabels(row_labels, minor=False)
ax.set_yticklabels(col_labels, minor=False)

#rotate label if too long

plt.xticks(rotation=90)

fig.colorbar(im)
plt.show()

ANOVA: Analysis of Variance ????

The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is a statistical method used to test whether there are
significant differences between the means of two or more groups. ANOVA returns two
parameters:
F-test score: ANOVA assumes the means of all groups are the same, calculates how much
the actual means deviate from the assumption, and reports it as the F-test score. A larger
score means there is a larger difference between the means.
P-value: P-value tells how statistically significant is our calculated score value.
If our price variable is strongly correlated with the variable we are analyzing, expect
ANOVA to return a sizeable F-test score and a small p-value. For more information :
https://www.reneshbedre.com/blog/anova.html
Since ANOVA analyzes the difference between different groups of the same variable, the
groupby function will come in handy. Because the ANOVA algorithm averages the data
automatically, we do not need to take the average before hand.
# Let's see if different types 'drive-wheels' impact 'price', we group the
data.
grouped_test2=df_gptest[['drive-wheels', 'price']].groupby(['drive-wheels'])
grouped_test2.head(2)
df_gptest
grouped_test2.get_group('4wd')['price']
# ANOVA
f_val, p_val = stats.f_oneway(grouped_test2.get_group('fwd')['price'],
grouped_test2.get_group('rwd')['price'],
grouped_test2.get_group('4wd')['price'])

print( "ANOVA results: F=", f_val, ", P =", p_val)

ANOVA results: F= 67.95406500780399 , P = 3.3945443577151245e-23

f_val, p_val = stats.f_oneway(grouped_test2.get_group('fwd')['price'],

grouped_test2.get_group('rwd')['price'])

print( "ANOVA results: F=", f_val, ", P =", p_val )

ANOVA results: F= 130.5533160959111 , P = 2.2355306355677845e-23

f_val, p_val = stats.f_oneway(grouped_test2.get_group('4wd')['price'],

grouped_test2.get_group('rwd')['price'])

print( "ANOVA results: F=", f_val, ", P =", p_val)

ANOVA results: F= 8.580681368924756 , P = 0.004411492211225333

Conclusion : Important Variables

We now have a better idea of what our data looks like and which variables are important to
take into account when predicting the car price. We have narrowed it down to the
following variables:
Continuous numerical variables:
Length
Width
Curb-weight
Engine-size
Horsepower
City-mpg
Highway-mpg
Wheel-base
Bore

Categorical variables:
Drive-wheels

As we now move into building machine learning models to automate our analysis, feeding
the model with variables that meaningfully affect our target variable will improve our
model's prediction performance.
Model Development
In this section, we will develop several models that will predict the price of the car using
the variables or features. This is just an estimate but should give us an objective idea of
how much the car should cost.
Model/Estimator is a mathmatical equation to predict a given value from one/more given
values.
Some questions we want to ask in this module
do I know if the dealer is offering fair value for my trade-in?
do I know if I put a fair value on my car?

Data Analytics, we often use Model Development to help us predict future observations
from the data we have.
A Model will help us understand the exact relationship between different variables and
how these variables are used to predict the result. There are many ways to
estimate/predict the outcome. Here we will use
1. Linear regression- simple/multiple
2. Polynomial regression and pipelines
3. Model using decision tree
# Import libraries

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# load data and store in dataframe df:

# Our dataset is already loades and cleaned

Linear Regression
One example of a Data Model that we will be using is Simple Linear Regression.
Simple Linear Regression is a method to help us understand the relationship between two
variables:
The predictor/independent variable (X)
The response/dependent variable (that we want to predict)(Y)

The result of Linear Regression is a linear function that predicts the response (dependent)
variable as a function of the predictor (independent) variable.
𝑌:Dependent (𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒) X:Independent (𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟) 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠
Linear function: 𝑌ℎ𝑎𝑡=𝑎+𝑏𝑋
a refers to the intercept of the regression line0, in other words: the value
of Y when X is 0
b refers to the slope of the regression line, in other words: the value with
which Y changes when X increases by 1 unit

# Steps
# Set of points-->fit the model-->parameters--->regress--->estimator

# import library
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

#Create the linear regression object

# We will find out how highway mpg can predict price of the car using simple
LR
lm = LinearRegression()
lm
# Let us define the variables
X = df[['highway-mpg']]
Y = df['price']
# Fit/train the model
lm.fit(X,Y)
# Predict the output
Yhat = lm.predict(X)
Yhat[0:5]
# That returns an array of five predicted prices

array([16236.50464347, 16236.50464347, 17058.23802179, 13771.3045085 ,

20345.17153508])

# Value of intercept(b0) and coefficient(b1)

lm.intercept_

38423.305858157386

lm.coef_

array([-821.73337832])

The final estimated linear model is price = 38423.31 - 821.73 x highway-mpg The
relationship sifnifies
1. The value of price is 38423 when the mpg is 0
2. The value of price decreases by 821 unit when mpg increases by 1 unit
# Let us practice few more models
# Price and engine size
lm1 = LinearRegression()
lm1
X = df[['engine-size']]
Y = df['price']
lm1.fit(X,Y)
# Slope
lm1.coef_
# Intercept
lm1.intercept_
print ( "The slope of the model is", lm1.coef_, " with intercept ",
lm1.intercept_ )

The slope of the model is [166.86001569] with intercept -7963.338906281046

The final estimated linear model is price = -7963.33 + 166.87 x engine-size

Multiple Linear Regression

We want to predict car price using more than one variable. We can use Multiple Linear
Regression. The equation is given by 𝑌ℎ𝑎𝑡=b0+𝑏1𝑋1+𝑏2𝑋2+𝑏3𝑋3+𝑏4𝑋4 From the previous
section we know that other good predictors of price could be:
Horsepower
Curb-weight
Engine-size
Highway-mpg

Let's develop a model using these variables as the predictor variables.

# Practice 1
# Define all independent variable as z
Z = df[[ 'curb-weight', 'engine-size', 'highway-mpg']]
# Fit the linear model using the four above-mentioned variables
lm.fit(Z, df['price'])
# Intercept(b0) and coeficient(b1..b4)
lm.intercept_
lm.coef_
print ( "The slope/coefficient of the model is", lm.coef_, " with intercept
", lm.intercept_ )

The slope/coefficient of the model is [ 3.89932261 111.9726602 -

122.58282166] with intercept -7203.19437901468

The Final Model is Price = -15678.742628061467 + 52.65851272 x horsepower +

4.69878948 x curb-weight + 81.95906216 x engine-size +33.58258185 x highway-mpg
#Pratice 2 lm2=LinearRegression lm2 X = df['normalized-losses' , 'highway-mpg'] # we can
use Z as well Y = df['price'] lm2.fit[X,Y]
# we can define the way above or below
lm2 = LinearRegression()
lm2.fit(df[['normalized-losses' , 'highway-mpg']],df['price'])
lm.intercept_
lm.coef_
print ( "The slope/coefficient of the model is", lm2.coef_, " with intercept
", lm2.intercept_ )
The slope/coefficient of the model is [ 1.49789586 -820.45434016] with
intercept 38201.313272457286

The Final Model is Price = 38201.313272457286 + 1.49789586 x normalized-losses -

820.45434016 x highway-mpg

Model Evaluation using Visualization

Now that we've developed some models, how do we evaluate our models and how do we
choose the best one? One way to do this is by using visualization.
1. Regression Plot
When it comes to simple linear regression, an excellent way to visualize the fit of our model
is by using regression plots.
This plot will show a combination of a scattered data points (a scatter plot), as well as the
fitted linear regression line going through the data. This will give us a reasonable estimate
of the relationship between the two variables, the strength of the correlation, as well as the
direction (positive or negative correlation).
# we have aleady built a predictor LR model before
#Practice 1
#Let's visualize highway-mpg as potential predictor variable of price
# import the visualization package: seaborn
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline
width = 12
height = 10
plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))
sns.regplot(x="highway-mpg", y="price", data=df)
plt.ylim(0,)

(0.0, 48170.301416875096)
We can see from this plot that price is negatively correlated to highway-mpg, since the
regression slope is negative. One thing to keep in mind when looking at a regression plot is
to pay attention to how scattered the data points are around the regression line. This will
give you a good indication of the variance of the data, and whether a linear model would be
the best fit or not. If the data is too far off from the line, this linear model might not be the
best model for this data. In this case, it semms the data points are too scattered around 25
mpg and two many outlier points as well
# Pracice 2
# Let's compare this plot to the regression plot of "peak-rpm".
plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))
sns.regplot(x="peak-rpm", y="price", data=df)
plt.ylim(0,)

(0.0, 47414.1)
Comparing the regression plot of "peak-rpm" and "highway-mpg" we see that the points for
"highway-mpg" are much closer to the generated line and on the average decrease. The
points for "peak-rpm" have more spread around the predicted line, and it is much harder to
determine if the points are decreasing or increasing as the "highway-mpg" increases.
The variable "highway-mpg" has a stronger correlation with "price", it is approximate -
0.704692 compared to "peak-rpm" which is approximate -0.101616. You can verify it using
the following command:
df[["peak-rpm","highway-mpg","price"]].corr()

peak-rpm highway-mpg price

peak-rpm 1.000000 -0.058598 -0.101616
highway-mpg -0.058598 1.000000 -0.704692
price -0.101616 -0.704692 1.000000

Residual Plot for simple LR

A good way to visualize the variance of the data is to use a residual plot.
What is a residual?
The difference between the observed value (y) and the predicted value (Yhat) is called the
residual (e). When we look at a regression plot, the residual is the distance from the data
point to the fitted regression line.
So what is a residual plot?
A residual plot is a graph that shows the residuals on the vertical y-axis and the
independent variable on the horizontal x-axis.
What do we pay attention to when looking at a residual plot?
We look at the spread of the residuals:
• If the points in a residual plot are randomly spread out around the x-axis, then a
linear model is appropriate for the data. Why is that? Randomly spread out residuals
means that the variance is constant, and thus the linear model is a good fit for this
data.
# Let us check the residual plot of highway-mapg and price
width = 12
height = 10
plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))
sns.residplot(df['highway-mpg'], df['price'])
plt.show()

C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\_decorators.py:36:
FutureWarning: Pass the following variables as keyword args: x, y. From
version 0.12, the only valid positional argument will be `data`, and passing
other arguments without an explicit keyword will result in an error or
misinterpretation.
warnings.warn(
 • We can see from this residual plot that the residuals are not randomly spread
around the x-axis, which leads us to believe that maybe a non-linear model is more
appropriate for this data.

Distribution Plot for MLR

How do we visualize a model for Multiple Linear Regression? This gets a bit more
complicated because you can't visualize it with regression or residual plot.
One way to look at the fit of the model is by looking at the distribution plot: We can look at
the distribution of the fitted values that result from the model and compare it to the
distribution of the actual values.
# Here Z = df[[ 'curb-weight', 'engine-size', 'highway-mpg']]
Y_hat = lm.predict(Z)
plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))

ax1 = sns.distplot(df['price'], hist=False, color="r", label="Actual Value")

sns.distplot(Y_hat, hist=False, color="b", label="Fitted Values" , ax=ax1)

plt.title('Actual vs Fitted Values for Price')

plt.xlabel('Price (in dollars)')
plt.ylabel('Proportion of Cars')

plt.legend()
plt.show()
plt.close()

C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2551:
FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a
future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-
level function with similar flexibility) or `kdeplot` (an axes-level function
for kernel density plots).
warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)
C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2551:
FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a
future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-
level function with similar flexibility) or `kdeplot` (an axes-level function
for kernel density plots).
warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)

We can see that the fitted values are reasonably close to the actual values, since the two
distributions overlap a bit. However, there is definitely some room for improvement.
Polynomial Regression and Pipelines
• Polynomial regression is a particular case of the general linear regression model or
multiple linear regression models.
We get non-linear relationships by squaring or setting higher-order terms of the predictor
variables.
There are different orders of polynomial regression:
Quadratic - 2nd order
• 𝑌ℎ𝑎𝑡=𝑎+𝑏1𝑋+𝑏2𝑋2 Cubic - 3rd order
• 𝑌ℎ𝑎𝑡=𝑎+𝑏1𝑋+𝑏2𝑋2+𝑏3𝑋3 Higher order:
• 𝑌=𝑎+𝑏1𝑋+𝑏2𝑋2+𝑏3𝑋3....
We saw earlier that a linear model did not provide the best fit while using highway-mpg as
the predictor variable. Let's see if we can try fitting a polynomial model to the data instead.
# We will use the following function to plot the data:

def PlotPolly(model, independent_variable, dependent_variabble, Name):

x_new = np.linspace(15, 55, 100)
y_new = model(x_new)

plt.plot(independent_variable, dependent_variabble, '.', x_new, y_new, '-

')
plt.title('Polynomial Fit with Matplotlib for Price ~ HighwayMPG')
ax = plt.gca()
ax.set_facecolor((0.898, 0.898, 0.898))
fig = plt.gcf()
plt.xlabel(Name)
plt.ylabel('Price of Cars')

plt.show()
plt.close()

# Lets get the variables (Single vaiant)

x = df['highway-mpg']
y = df['price']
# Let's fit the polynomial using the function polyfit, then use the function
poly1d to display the polynomial function.
# Here we use a polynomial of the 3rd order (cubic)
f = np.polyfit(x, y, 3) # 3 for 3rd degree
p = np.poly1d(f)
print(p)

3 2
-1.557 x + 204.8 x - 8965 x + 1.379e+05
# Let's plot the function
PlotPolly(p, x, y, 'highway-mpg')

np.polyfit(x, y, 3)

array([-1.55663829e+00, 2.04754306e+02, -8.96543312e+03, 1.37923594e+05])

We can already see from plotting that this polynomial model performs better than the
linear model. This is because the generated polynomial function "hits" more of the data
points.
# Let us check for 5th degree
f = np.polyfit(x, y, 5)
p = np.poly1d(f)
PlotPolly(p, x, y, 'highway-mpg')
# Here we can see 5th order fits the data more
# Check for 11th order
f = np.polyfit(x, y, 11)
p = np.poly1d(f)
PlotPolly(p, x, y, 'highway-mpg')
The higher order we go the better it fits. But sometimes it can get overfitted or even
underfitted. We will discuss this isuues later

multivariate polynomial function

# import the module
from sklearn.preprocessing import PolynomialFeatures
#We create a PolynomialFeatures object of degree 2
pr=PolynomialFeatures(degree=2)
pr
# Fit the model and transform
Z_pr=pr.fit_transform(Z)

Z.shape # the original data has 201 samples with thrree features

(201, 3)

Z_pr.shape # after the transformation, there 201 samples and 10 features

(201, 10)

#### Data Pipeline Data Pipelines simplify the steps of processing the data. We use the
module Pipeline to create a pipeline. We also use StandardScaler as a step in our pipeline.
from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
#We create the pipeline, by creating a list of tuples including the name of
the model
# or estimator and its corresponding constructor.
Input=[('scale',StandardScaler()), ('polynomial',
PolynomialFeatures(include_bias=False)), ('model',LinearRegression())]
#we input the list as an argument to the pipeline constructor
pipe=Pipeline(Input)
pipe
# We can normalize the data, perform a transform and fit the model
simultaneously.
pipe.fit(Z,y)
# Similarly, we can normalize the data, perform a transform and produce a
prediction simultaneously
ypipe=pipe.predict(Z)
ypipe[0:4]

array([14027.83226625, 14027.83226625, 17028.85829254, 10153.70615236])

• So first crated the pipeline, transformed the function to fit the model and then
predicted the model
# Let us practice with 10 predictes value of the model
Input=[('scale',StandardScaler()),('model',LinearRegression())]

pipe=Pipeline(Input)
pipe.fit(Z,y)

ypipe=pipe.predict(Z)
ypipe[0:10]

array([13978.98928016, 13978.98928016, 17637.28434484, 10437.05787959,

16339.95239087, 14736.11865758, 16050.19037813, 16479.11586556,
17046.87725777, 10673.8287526 ])

Quantitative Measures for In-Sample Evaluation

When evaluating our models, not only do we want to visualize the results, but we also want
a quantitative measure to determine how accurate the model is.
Two very important measures that are often used in Statistics to determine the accuracy of
a model are:
R^2 / R-squared
Mean Squared Error (MSE)

• R-squared
R squared, also known as the coefficient of determination, is a measure to indicate how
close the data is to the fitted regression line.
The value of the R-squared is the percentage of variation of the response variable (y) that is
explained by a linear model.
• Mean Squared Error (MSE)
The Mean Squared Error measures the average of the squares of errors, that is, the
difference between actual value (y) and the estimated value (ŷ).
• Measures for simple linear regeession using highway mpg
# R^2
#highway_mpg_fit
X = df[['highway-mpg']]
Y = df['price']
lm.fit(X, Y)
# Find the R^2
print('The R-square is: ', lm.score(X, Y))

The R-square is: 0.4965911884339175

We can say that ~ 49.659% of the variation of the price is explained by this simple linear
model "highway-mpg". R square close to 1 is agood fit.
# MSE
# Import Libraries
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
mse = mean_squared_error(df['price'], Yhat)
print('The mean square error of price and predicted value is: ', mse)
The mean square error of price and predicted value is: 31635042.944639895

# Predict the estimator

Yhat=lm.predict(X)
print('The output of the first four predicted value is: ', Yhat[0:4])

The output of the first four predicted value is: [16236.50464347

16236.50464347 17058.23802179 13771.3045085 ]

• Measures for MLR- Multiple Linear Regression

#Let's calculate the R^2
# fit the model
lm.fit(Z, df['price'])
# Find the R^2
print('The R-square is: ', lm.score(Z, df['price']))

The R-square is: 0.7965223866823608

We can say that ~ 80.896 % of the variation of price is explained by this multiple linear
regression "multi_fit".
# Let's calculate the MSE
Y_predict_multifit = lm.predict(Z)
print('The mean square error of price and predicted value using multifit is:
', \
mean_squared_error(df['price'], Y_predict_multifit))

The mean square error of price and predicted value using multifit is:
12786870.010381931

• Measures for polynomial fit

# Let's calculate the R^2
#let’s import the function r2_score from the module metrics as we are using a
different function
from sklearn.metrics import r2_score
#We apply the function to get the value of r^2
r_squared = r2_score(y, p(x))
print('The R-square value is: ', r_squared)

The R-square value is: 0.7023769092452208

We can say that ~ 67.419 % of the variation of price is explained by this polynomial fit
#We can also calculate the MSE:
mean_squared_error(df['price'], p(x))

18703127.639051963

Prediction and Decision Making

• Prediction
In the previous section, we trained the model using the method fit. Now we will use the
method predict to produce a prediction. Lets import pyplot for plotting; we will also be
using some functions from numpy.
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np

%matplotlib inline

# Create a new input

new_input=np.arange(1, 100, 1).reshape(-1, 1)

# Fit the model

lm.fit(X, Y)
lm

# Produce a prediction
yhat=lm.predict(new_input)
yhat[0:5]

array([37601.57247984, 36779.83910151, 35958.10572319, 35136.37234487,

34314.63896655])

# we can plot the data

plt.plot(new_input, yhat)
plt.show()
plt.close()
Decision Making: Determining a Good Model Fit
Now that we have visualized the different models, and generated the R-squared and MSE
values for the fits, how do we determine a good model fit?
What is a good R-squared value?

When comparing models, the model with the higher R-squared value is a better fit for the
data.
What is a good MSE?

When comparing models, the model with the smallest MSE value is a better fit for the data.
Let's take a look at the values for the different models.
Simple Linear Regression: Using Highway-mpg as a Predictor Variable of Price.
R-squared: 0.49659118843391759
MSE: 3.16 x10^7

Multiple Linear Regression: Using Horsepower, Curb-weight, Engine-size, and Highway-

mpg as Predictor Variables of Price.
R-squared: 0.80896354913783497
MSE: 1.2 x10^7

Polynomial Fit: Using Highway-mpg as a Predictor Variable of Price.

R-squared: 0.6741946663906514
MSE: 2.05 x 10^7

Simple Linear Regression model (SLR) vs Multiple Linear Regression model (MLR)
Usually, the more variables you have, the better your model is at predicting, but this is not
always true. Sometimes you may not have enough data, you may run into numerical
problems, or many of the variables may not be useful and or even act as noise. As a result,
you should always check the MSE and R^2.
So to be able to compare the results of the MLR vs SLR models, we look at a combination of
both the R-squared and MSE to make the best conclusion about the fit of the model.
MSE : The MSE of SLR is 3.16x10^7 while MLR has an MSE of 1.2 x10^7. The MSE
of MLR is much smaller.
R-squared: In this case, we can also see that there is a big difference
between the R-squared of the SLR and the R-squared of the MLR. The R-squared
for the SLR (~0.497) is very small compared to the R-squared for the MLR
(~0.809).

This R-squared in combination with the MSE show that MLR seems like the better model fit
in this case, compared to SLR. Simple Linear Model (SLR) vs Polynomial Fit
MSE: We can see that Polynomial Fit brought down the MSE, since this MSE is
smaller than the one from the SLR.
R-squared: The R-squared for the Polyfit is larger than the R-squared for the
SLR, so the Polynomial Fit also brought up the R-squared quite a bit.

Since the Polynomial Fit resulted in a lower MSE and a higher R-squared, we can conclude
that this was a better fit model than the simple linear regression for predicting Price with
Highway-mpg as a predictor variable. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) vs Polynomial Fit
MSE: The MSE for the MLR is smaller than the MSE for the Polynomial Fit.
R-squared: The R-squared for the MLR is also much larger than for the
Polynomial Fit.

• Comparing these three models, we conclude that the MLR model is the best model to
be able to predict price from our dataset. This result makes sense, since we have 27
variables in total, and we know that more than one of those variables are potential
predictors of the final car price.

Model Evaluation and Refinement

We already have clean data, we have some predicted models.
• Functions for ploting data %%capture ! pip install ipywidgets
from ipywidgets import interact, interactive, fixed, interact_manual
def DistributionPlot(RedFunction, BlueFunction, RedName, BlueName, Title): width = 12
height = 10 plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))
ax1 = sns.distplot(RedFunction, hist=False, color="r", label=RedName)
ax2 = sns.distplot(BlueFunction, hist=False, color="b", label=BlueName,
ax=ax1)

plt.title(Title)
plt.xlabel('Price (in dollars)')
plt.ylabel('Proportion of Cars')

plt.show()
plt.close()

def PollyPlot(xtrain, xtest, y_train, y_test, lr,poly_transform):

width = 12
height = 10
plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))

#training data
#testing data
# lr: linear regression object
#poly_transform: polynomial transformation object

xmax=max([xtrain.values.max(), xtest.values.max()])

xmin=min([xtrain.values.min(), xtest.values.min()])

x=np.arange(xmin, xmax, 0.1)

plt.plot(xtrain, y_train, 'ro', label='Training Data')

plt.plot(xtest, y_test, 'go', label='Test Data')
plt.plot(x, lr.predict(poly_transform.fit_transform(x.reshape(-1, 1))),
label='Predicted Function')
plt.ylim([-10000, 60000])
plt.ylabel('Price')
plt.legend()

%%capture
! pip install ipywidgets
# For interactive interface
from ipywidgets import interact, interactive, fixed, interact_manual

# Functions for plotting

def DistributionPlot(RedFunction, BlueFunction, RedName, BlueName, Title):
width = 12
height = 10
plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))

ax1 = sns.distplot(RedFunction, hist=False, color="r", label=RedName)

ax2 = sns.distplot(BlueFunction, hist=False, color="b", label=BlueName,
ax=ax1)

plt.title(Title)
plt.xlabel('Price (in dollars)')
plt.ylabel('Proportion of Cars')

plt.show()
plt.close()

# Define PollyPlot
def PollyPlot(xtrain, xtest, y_train, y_test, lr,poly_transform):
width = 12
height = 10
plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))

#training data
#testing data
# lr: linear regression object
#poly_transform: polynomial transformation object
 xmax=max([xtrain.values.max(), xtest.values.max()])

xmin=min([xtrain.values.min(), xtest.values.min()])

x=np.arange(xmin, xmax, 0.1)

plt.plot(xtrain, y_train, 'ro', label='Training Data')

plt.plot(xtest, y_test, 'go', label='Test Data')
plt.plot(x, lr.predict(poly_transform.fit_transform(x.reshape(-1, 1))),
label='Predicted Function')
plt.ylim([-10000, 60000])
plt.ylabel('Price')
plt.legend()

# First we wiil work with numeric data

df=df._get_numeric_data()
df.head(10)

symboling normalized-losses wheel-base length width height \

0 3 122 88.6 0.811148 0.890278 0.816054
1 3 122 88.6 0.811148 0.890278 0.816054
2 1 122 94.5 0.822681 0.909722 0.876254
3 2 164 99.8 0.848630 0.919444 0.908027
4 2 164 99.4 0.848630 0.922222 0.908027
5 2 122 99.8 0.851994 0.920833 0.887960
6 1 158 105.8 0.925997 0.991667 0.931438
7 1 122 105.8 0.925997 0.991667 0.931438
8 1 158 105.8 0.925997 0.991667 0.934783
9 2 192 101.2 0.849592 0.900000 0.908027

curb-weight engine-size bore stroke ... horsepower peak-rpm \

0 2548 130 3.47 2.68 ... 111 5000.0
1 2548 130 3.47 2.68 ... 111 5000.0
2 2823 152 2.68 3.47 ... 154 5000.0
3 2337 109 3.19 3.40 ... 102 5500.0
4 2824 136 3.19 3.40 ... 115 5500.0
5 2507 136 3.19 3.40 ... 110 5500.0
6 2844 136 3.19 3.40 ... 110 5500.0
7 2954 136 3.19 3.40 ... 110 5500.0
8 3086 131 3.13 3.40 ... 140 5500.0
9 2395 108 3.50 2.80 ... 101 5800.0

city-mpg highway-mpg price city-L/100km fuel-type-diesel \

0 21 27 13495.0 11.190476 0
1 21 27 16500.0 11.190476 0
2 19 26 16500.0 12.368421 0
3 24 30 13950.0 9.791667 0
4 18 22 17450.0 13.055556 0
5 19 25 15250.0 12.368421 0
6 19 25 17710.0 12.368421 0
7 19 25 18920.0 12.368421 0
8 17 20 23875.0 13.823529 0
9 23 29 16430.0 10.217391 0

fuel-type-gas aspiration-std aspiration-turbo

0 1 1 0
1 1 1 0
2 1 1 0
3 1 1 0
4 1 1 0
5 1 1 0
6 1 1 0
7 1 1 0
8 1 0 1
9 1 1 0

[10 rows x 21 columns]

Training and Testing

An important step in testing your model is to split your data into training and testing data.
We will place the target data price in a separate dataframe y
y_data = df['price']
# Now we will drop price column as it is the dependent variable
x_data=df.drop('price',axis=1)
# Now we randomly split our data into training and testing data using the
function train_test_split.

# we will import the library

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

x_train, x_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(x_data, y_data,

test_size=0.10, random_state=1)
# we are using 10% data as for testing

print("number of test samples :", x_test.shape[0])

print("number of training samples:",x_train.shape[0])

number of test samples : 21

number of training samples: 180

# Let's import LinearRegression from the module linear_model.

from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
# We create a Linear Regression object
lre=LinearRegression()

# Fit the model

lre.fit(x_train[['highway-mpg']], y_train)
LinearRegression(copy_X=True, fit_intercept=True, n_jobs=None,
normalize=False)

LinearRegression()

# Let's Calculate the R^2 on the test data:

lre.score(x_test[['highway-mpg']], y_test)

-0.02688896960469922

# Let's Calculate the R^2 on the train data:

lre.score(x_train[['highway-mpg']], y_train)

0.5083627320666815

• we can see the R^2 is much smaller using the train data.
# Let us use 40 percent data as test data
x_train1, x_test1, y_train1, y_test1 = train_test_split(x_data, y_data,
test_size=0.4, random_state=0)
lre.fit(x_train1[['highway-mpg']],y_train1)
lre.score(x_test1[['highway-mpg']],y_test1)

0.48301138227946017

lre.score(x_train1[['highway-mpg']], y_train1)

0.4934016641097354

• 40% test data is showing better performance in terms of R^2 values

Cross-validation Score
Sometimes you do not have sufficient testing data; as a result, you may want to perform
Cross-validation. Let's go over several methods that you can use for Cross-validation.
#Lets import model_selection from the module cross_val_score
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score
# We input the object, the feature in this case ' highway-mpg', the target
data (y_data).
# The parameter 'cv' determines the number of folds; in this case 4.
Rcross = cross_val_score(lre, x_data[['highway-mpg']], y_data, cv=4)
#The default scoring is R^2; each element in the array has the average R^2
value in the fold:
Rcross

array([0.56273923, 0.50617506, 0.36024954, 0.123501 ])

# We can calculate the average and standard deviation of our estimate
print("The mean of the folds are", Rcross.mean(), "and the standard deviation
is" , Rcross.std())

The mean of the folds are 0.3881662072564622 and the standard deviation is
0.1697268682335954

# We can use negative squared error as a score by setting the parameter

'scoring' metric to 'neg_mean_squared_error'.???
-1 * cross_val_score(lre,x_data[['highway-mpg']],
y_data,cv=4,scoring='neg_mean_squared_error')

array([39295713.70380161, 44741370.23768637, 31815771.02184274,

16175859.8343302 ])

# Let's practice using 2 folds

Rc=cross_val_score(lre,x_data[['highway-mpg']], y_data,cv=2)
Rc.mean()

0.3689378324027451

• You can also use the function 'cross_val_predict' to predict the output. The function
splits up the data into the specified number of folds, using one fold for testing and
the other folds are used for training.
# import the function
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_predict
yhat = cross_val_predict(lre,x_data[['highway-mpg']], y_data,cv=4)
yhat[0:5]

array([15702.62111965, 15702.62111965, 16477.14151726, 13379.05992683,

19575.22310768])

Overfitting, Underfitting and Model Selection

It turns out that the test data sometimes referred to as the out of sample data is a much
better measure of how well your model performs in the real world. One reason for this is
overfitting; let's go over some examples. It turns out these differences are more apparent in
Multiple Linear Regression and Polynomial Regression so we will explore overfitting in that
context.
# Let's create Multiple linear regression objects and train the model
# using 'horsepower', 'curb-weight', 'engine-size' and 'highway-mpg' as
features
lr = LinearRegression()
lr.fit(x_train[['length', 'curb-weight', 'engine-size', 'highway-mpg']],
y_train)
LinearRegression(copy_X=True, fit_intercept=True, n_jobs=None,
normalize=False)

#Prediction using training data

yhat_train = lr.predict(x_train[['length', 'curb-weight', 'engine-size',
'highway-mpg']])
yhat_train[0:5]

array([ 8148.05174928, 27559.23067675, 15214.01206449, 3663.60302116,

35270.64823603])

# Prediction using test data

yhat_test = lr.predict(x_test[['length', 'curb-weight', 'engine-size',
'highway-mpg']])
yhat_test[0:5]

array([11133.56762442, 5964.2157454 , 12020.48744504, 6995.65093863,

15585.0689409 ])

model evaluation using our training and testing data

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline
import seaborn as sns

# Let's examine the distribution of the predicted values of the training data

plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))

plt.title('Distribution Plot of Predicted Value Using Training Data vs

Training Data Distribution')
plt.xlabel('Price (in dollars)')
plt.ylabel('Proportion of Cars')

ax1 = sns.distplot(df['price'], hist=False, color="r", label="Actual

Values(train)")
sns.distplot(Y_hat, hist=False, color="b", label="Predicted Values(train)" ,
ax=ax1)
plt.legend()
plt.show()
plt.close()

C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2551:
FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a
future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-
level function with similar flexibility) or `kdeplot` (an axes-level function
for kernel density plots).
warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)
C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2551:
FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a
future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-
level function with similar flexibility) or `kdeplot` (an axes-level function
for kernel density plots).
warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)
 • So far the model seems to be doing well in learning from the training dataset. But
what happens when the model encounters new data from the testing dataset? When
the model generates new values from the test data, we see the distribution of the
predicted values is much different from the actual target values.
# Let's examine the distribution of the predicted values of the test data
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline
import seaborn as sns

plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))

Title='Distribution Plot of Predicted Value Using Test Data vs Data

Distribution of Test Data'
DistributionPlot(y_test,yhat_test,"Actual Values (Test)","Predicted Values
(Test)",Title)

# plt.legend()--this command is not working here

plt.show()
plt.close()
print ('the red line is for actual test values and the blue one is the
predicted test values')

# having problem to set the right graps ?????

C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2551:
FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a
future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-
level function with similar flexibility) or `kdeplot` (an axes-level function
for kernel density plots).
warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)
C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2551:
FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a
future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-
level function with similar flexibility) or `kdeplot` (an axes-level function
for kernel density plots).
warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)

<Figure size 864x720 with 0 Axes>

the red line is for actual test values and the blue one is the predicted test
values
 • the red line is for actual test values and the blue one is the predicted test values
• Comparing Figure 1 and Figure 2; it is evident the distribution of the test data in
Figure 1 is much better at fitting the data. This difference in Figure 2 is apparent
where the ranges are from 5000 to 15 000. This is where the distribution shape is
exceptionally different

Overfitting
Overfitting occurs when the model fits the noise, not the underlying process. Therefore
when testing your model using the test-set, your model does not perform as well as it is
modelling noise, not the underlying process that generated the relationship.

Univariate polynomial function fitting- overfitting

# Let's create a degree 5 polynomial model.
# Let's use 55 percent of the data for training and the rest for testing
from sklearn.preprocessing import PolynomialFeatures

x_train, x_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(x_data, y_data,

test_size=0.45, random_state=0)
pr = PolynomialFeatures(degree=5)
x_train_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_train[['highway-mpg']])
x_test_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_test[['highway-mpg']])
pr

PolynomialFeatures(degree=5)

# let's create a linear regression model "poly" and train it

poly = LinearRegression()
poly.fit(x_train_pr, y_train)
yhat = poly.predict(x_test_pr)
yhat[0:5]

array([ 6511.57114501, 8993.37100965, 16751.57368263, 21757.02721221,

18214.09030629])

#Let's take the first five predicted values and compare it to the actual
target
print("Predicted values:", yhat[0:5])
print("True values:", y_test[0:5].values)

Predicted values: [ 6511.57114501 8993.37100965 16751.57368263

21757.02721221
18214.09030629]
True values: [ 6295. 10698. 13860. 13499. 15750.]

# We will use the function "PollyPlot" that we defined at the beginning of

the lab to display
# the training data, testing data, and the predicted function.
PollyPlot(x_train[['highway-mpg']], x_test[['highway-mpg']], y_train, y_test,
poly,pr)
 • The polynomial regression model, red dots represent training data, green dots
represent test data, and the blue line represents the model prediction
• At 5th degree the estimated function appears to track the data very good.
# Let's check for 11th order and then 20th order
pr = PolynomialFeatures(degree=11)
x_train_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_train[['highway-mpg']])
x_test_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_test[['highway-mpg']])
pr

PolynomialFeatures(degree=11)

poly = LinearRegression()
poly.fit(x_train_pr, y_train)
yhat = poly.predict(x_test_pr)
yhat[0:5]
PollyPlot(x_train[['highway-mpg']], x_test[['highway-mpg']], y_train, y_test,
poly,pr)
pr = PolynomialFeatures(degree=20)
x_train_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_train[['highway-mpg']])
x_test_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_test[['highway-mpg']])
pr
poly = LinearRegression()
poly.fit(x_train_pr, y_train)
yhat = poly.predict(x_test_pr)
yhat[0:5]
PollyPlot(x_train[['highway-mpg']], x_test[['highway-mpg']], y_train, y_test,
poly,pr)
 • 11th order does very good but 20th order did not do good around 40-50 mpg. This
is an example of overfitting
# R^2 of the training data
poly.score(x_train_pr, y_train)

0.49596883970465033

# R^2 of the test data

poly.score(x_test_pr, y_test)

0.46760941866758243

• The lower the R^2, the worse the model, a Negative R^2 is a sign of overfitting.
# Interactive interface
def f(order, test_data):
x_train, x_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(x_data, y_data,
test_size=test_data, random_state=0)
pr = PolynomialFeatures(degree=order)
x_train_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_train[['highway-mpg']])
x_test_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_test[['highway-mpg']])
poly = LinearRegression()
poly.fit(x_train_pr,y_train)
PollyPlot(x_train[['highway-mpg']], x_test[['highway-mpg']],
y_train,y_test, poly, pr)
# The following interface allows you to experiment with different polynomial
orders
#and different amounts of data
interact(f, order=(0, 25, 1), test_data=(0.05, 0.95, 0.05))

{"model_id":"36594b54c7ff4384b30aa4842fdf5d2f","version_major":2,"version_min
or":0}

<function __main__.f(order, test_data)>

# Let's see how the R^2 changes on the test data for different order
polynomials and plot the results

Rsqu_test = []

order = [1, 2, 3, 4,5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10, 20]

for n in order:
pr = PolynomialFeatures(degree=n)

x_train_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_train[['highway-mpg']])

x_test_pr = pr.fit_transform(x_test[['highway-mpg']])

lr.fit(x_train_pr, y_train)

Rsqu_test.append(lr.score(x_test_pr, y_test))

plt.plot(order, Rsqu_test)
plt.xlabel('order')
plt.ylabel('R^2')
plt.title('R^2 Using Test Data')
plt.text(3, 0.75, 'Maximum R^2 ')

Text(3, 0.75, 'Maximum R^2 ')

 • We see the R^2 gradually increases until an order 10th polynomial is used. Then the
R^2 dramatically decreases at 11.

Multivariate polynomial function fitting- overfitting

pr1=PolynomialFeatures(degree=2)

# define the data

x_train_pr1=pr1.fit_transform(x_train[[ 'curb-weight', 'engine-size',
'highway-mpg']])

x_test_pr1=pr1.fit_transform(x_test[[ 'curb-weight', 'engine-size', 'highway-

mpg']])

# Attributes of the function

x_train_pr1.shape

(180, 10)

# Fit the model

poly1=LinearRegression().fit(x_train_pr1,y_train)

#Predict the model

yhat_test1=poly1.predict(x_test_pr1)

# Use the distribution plot

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline
import seaborn as sns
plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))

plt.title('Distribution Plot of Predicted Value Using Test Data vs Data

Distribution of Test Data')
plt.xlabel('Price (in dollars)')
plt.ylabel('Proportion of Cars')

ax1 = sns.distplot(df['price'], hist=False, color="r", label="Actual

Values(test)")
sns.distplot(Y_hat, hist=False, color="b", label="Predicted Values(test)" ,
ax=ax1)

plt.legend()
plt.show()
plt.close()

C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2551:
FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a
future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-
level function with similar flexibility) or `kdeplot` (an axes-level function
for kernel density plots).
warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)
C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\seaborn\distributions.py:2551:
FutureWarning: `distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in a
future version. Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-
level function with similar flexibility) or `kdeplot` (an axes-level function
for kernel density plots).
warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)
 • The predicted value is higher than actual value for cars where the price 10,000
range. conversely the predicted price is lower than the price cost in the $30,000 to
$40,000 range. As such the model is not as accurate in these ranges.

Ridge regression
Ridge regression is a way to create a parsimonious model when the number of predictor
variables in a set exceeds the number of observations, or when a data set has
multicollinearity (correlations between predictor variables).
• Ridge Regression vs. Least Squares
Least squares regression isn’t defined at all when the number of predictors exceeds the
number of observations; It doesn’t differentiate “important” from “less-important”
predictors in a model, so it includes all of them. This leads to overfitting a model and failure
to find unique solutions. Least squares also has issues dealing with multicollinearity in
data. Ridge regression avoids all of these problems. It works in part because it doesn’t
require unbiased estimators; While least squares produces unbiased estimates, variances
can be so large that they may be wholly inaccurate. Ridge regression adds just enough bias
to make the estimates reasonably reliable approximations to true population values.
 • In this section, we will review Ridge Regression we will see how the parameter Alfa
changes the model. Just a note here our test data will be used as validation data.
# Let's perform a degree two polynomial transformation on our data
pr=PolynomialFeatures(degree=2)
x_train_pr=pr.fit_transform(x_train[[ 'curb-weight', 'engine-size', 'highway-
mpg','normalized-losses','symboling']])
x_test_pr=pr.fit_transform(x_test[[ 'curb-weight', 'engine-size', 'highway-
mpg','normalized-losses','symboling']])

# Let's import Ridge from the module linear models.

from sklearn.linear_model import Ridge

#Let's create a Ridge regression object, setting the regularization parameter

to 0.1
RigeModel=Ridge(alpha=0.1)

# Like regular regression, you can fit the model using the method fit
RigeModel.fit(x_train_pr, y_train)

C:\Users\User\anaconda3\lib\site-packages\sklearn\linear_model\_ridge.py:147:
LinAlgWarning: Ill-conditioned matrix (rcond=6.00252e-17): result may not be
accurate.
return linalg.solve(A, Xy, sym_pos=True,

Ridge(alpha=0.1)

# Obtain the prediction

yhat = RigeModel.predict(x_test_pr)
yhat

array([ 9609.83740231, 6486.90097 , 10579.63194543, 4753.28226337,

15070.51660652, 5928.7930101 , 20051.11730028, 11748.54137231,
18309.5914021 , 5929.05839051, 9083.24287449, 5764.59448332,
15077.35679944, 14737.3585295 , 11765.69387061, 17337.60730096,
7924.43428633, 18879.446122 , 6644.34701621, 9454.91235857,
8514.15247727])

#Let's compare the first five predicted samples to our test set
print('predicted:', yhat[0:5])
print('test set :', y_test[0:5].values)

predicted: [ 9609.83740231 6486.90097 10579.63194543 4753.28226337

15070.51660652]
test set : [ 9549. 6229. 10245. 7295. 9989.]

#We select the value of Alpha that minimizes the test error, for example, we
can use a for loop.
Rsqu_test = []
Rsqu_train = []
dummy1 = []
Alpha = 10 * np.array(range(0,1000))
for alpha in Alpha:
RigeModel = Ridge(alpha=alpha)
RigeModel.fit(x_train_pr, y_train)
Rsqu_test.append(RigeModel.score(x_test_pr, y_test))
Rsqu_train.append(RigeModel.score(x_train_pr, y_train))

# We can plot out the value of R^2 for different Alphas

width = 12
height = 10
plt.figure(figsize=(width, height))

plt.plot(Alpha,Rsqu_test, label='validation data ')

plt.plot(Alpha,Rsqu_train, 'r', label='training Data ')
plt.xlabel('alpha')
plt.ylabel('R^2')
plt.legend()

<matplotlib.legend.Legend at 0x1e8cf9dd550>

• The red line represents the R^2 of the training data.

As Alpha increases the R^2 decreases.
Therefore as Alpha increases the model performs worse on the training data.
 • The blue line represents the R^2 on the validation data.
As the value for Alpha increases the R^2 increases and converges at a point
# Practice Ridge regression when alpha is set to 10 ????
RigeModel = Ridge(alpha=10)
RigeModel.fit(x_train_pr, y_train)
RigeModel.score(x_test_pr, y_test)

0.5710640373206048

Grid search ?????

The term Alfa is a hyperparameter ???, sklearn has the class GridSearchCV to make the
process of finding the best hyperparameter simpler.
#Let's import GridSearchCV from the module model_selection
from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV

#We create a dictionary of parameter values

parameters1= [{'alpha': [0.001,0.1,1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 100000]}]
parameters1

[{'alpha': [0.001, 0.1, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 100000]}]

#Create a ridge regions object

RR=Ridge()
RR

# Create a ridge grid search object

Grid1 = GridSearchCV(RR, parameters1,cv=4)

# Fit the model

Grid1.fit(x_data[[ 'curb-weight', 'engine-size', 'highway-mpg']], y_data)

GridSearchCV(cv=4, estimator=Ridge(),
param_grid=[{'alpha': [0.001, 0.1, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000,
100000,
100000]}])

• The object finds the best parameter values on the validation data. We can obtain the
estimator with the best parameters and assign it to the variable BestRR as follows
BestRR=Grid1.best_estimator_ BestRR
BestRR=Grid1.best_estimator_
BestRR

Ridge(alpha=1000)

BestRR.score(x_test[[ 'curb-weight', 'engine-size', 'highway-mpg']], y_test)

0.6430504126335327
 • Practice : Perform a grid search for the alpha parameter and the normalization
parameter, then find the best values of the parameters
parameters2= [{'alpha': [0.001,0.1,1, 10, 100,
1000,10000,100000,100000],'normalize':[True,False]} ]
Grid2 = GridSearchCV(Ridge(), parameters2,cv=4)
Grid2.fit(x_data[['horsepower', 'curb-weight', 'engine-size', 'highway-
mpg']],y_data)
Grid2.best_estimator_

Ridge(alpha=0.1, normalize=True)

Model prediction with decision tree

import pandas as pd
df.shape

(201, 21)

df.describe()

symboling normalized-losses wheel-base length width \

count 201.000000 201.00000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
mean 0.840796 122.00000 98.797015 0.837102 0.915126
std 1.254802 31.99625 6.066366 0.059213 0.029187
min -2.000000 65.00000 86.600000 0.678039 0.837500
25% 0.000000 101.00000 94.500000 0.801538 0.890278
50% 1.000000 122.00000 97.000000 0.832292 0.909722
75% 2.000000 137.00000 102.400000 0.881788 0.925000
max 3.000000 256.00000 120.900000 1.000000 1.000000

height curb-weight engine-size bore stroke ... \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 ...
mean 0.899108 2555.666667 126.875622 3.330692 3.256874 ...
std 0.040933 517.296727 41.546834 0.268072 0.316048 ...
min 0.799331 1488.000000 61.000000 2.540000 2.070000 ...
25% 0.869565 2169.000000 98.000000 3.150000 3.110000 ...
50% 0.904682 2414.000000 120.000000 3.310000 3.290000 ...
75% 0.928094 2926.000000 141.000000 3.580000 3.410000 ...
max 1.000000 4066.000000 326.000000 3.940000 4.170000 ...

horsepower peak-rpm city-mpg highway-mpg price \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
mean 103.402985 5117.665368 25.179104 30.686567 13207.129353
std 37.365650 478.113805 6.423220 6.815150 7947.066342
min 48.000000 4150.000000 13.000000 16.000000 5118.000000
25% 70.000000 4800.000000 19.000000 25.000000 7775.000000
50% 95.000000 5125.369458 24.000000 30.000000 10295.000000
75% 116.000000 5500.000000 30.000000 34.000000 16500.000000
max 262.000000 6600.000000 49.000000 54.000000 45400.000000

city-L/100km fuel-type-diesel fuel-type-gas aspiration-std \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
mean 9.944145 0.099502 0.900498 0.820896
std 2.534599 0.300083 0.300083 0.384397
min 4.795918 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
25% 7.833333 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
50% 9.791667 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
75% 12.368421 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
max 18.076923 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000

aspiration-turbo
count 201.000000
mean 0.179104
std 0.384397
min 0.000000
25% 0.000000
50% 0.000000
75% 0.000000
max 1.000000

[8 rows x 21 columns]

df.describe(include='all')

symboling normalized-losses wheel-base length width \

count 201.000000 201.00000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
mean 0.840796 122.00000 98.797015 0.837102 0.915126
std 1.254802 31.99625 6.066366 0.059213 0.029187
min -2.000000 65.00000 86.600000 0.678039 0.837500
25% 0.000000 101.00000 94.500000 0.801538 0.890278
50% 1.000000 122.00000 97.000000 0.832292 0.909722
75% 2.000000 137.00000 102.400000 0.881788 0.925000
max 3.000000 256.00000 120.900000 1.000000 1.000000

height curb-weight engine-size bore stroke ... \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 ...
mean 0.899108 2555.666667 126.875622 3.330692 3.256874 ...
std 0.040933 517.296727 41.546834 0.268072 0.316048 ...
min 0.799331 1488.000000 61.000000 2.540000 2.070000 ...
25% 0.869565 2169.000000 98.000000 3.150000 3.110000 ...
50% 0.904682 2414.000000 120.000000 3.310000 3.290000 ...
75% 0.928094 2926.000000 141.000000 3.580000 3.410000 ...
max 1.000000 4066.000000 326.000000 3.940000 4.170000 ...

horsepower peak-rpm city-mpg highway-mpg price \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
mean 103.402985 5117.665368 25.179104 30.686567 13207.129353
std 37.365650 478.113805 6.423220 6.815150 7947.066342
min 48.000000 4150.000000 13.000000 16.000000 5118.000000
25% 70.000000 4800.000000 19.000000 25.000000 7775.000000
50% 95.000000 5125.369458 24.000000 30.000000 10295.000000
75% 116.000000 5500.000000 30.000000 34.000000 16500.000000
max 262.000000 6600.000000 49.000000 54.000000 45400.000000

city-L/100km fuel-type-diesel fuel-type-gas aspiration-std \

count 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000 201.000000
mean 9.944145 0.099502 0.900498 0.820896
std 2.534599 0.300083 0.300083 0.384397
min 4.795918 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
25% 7.833333 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
50% 9.791667 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
75% 12.368421 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000
max 18.076923 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000

aspiration-turbo
count 201.000000
mean 0.179104
std 0.384397
min 0.000000
25% 0.000000
50% 0.000000
75% 0.000000
max 1.000000

[8 rows x 21 columns]

df.values

array([[ 3. , 122. , 88.6, ..., 1. , 1. , 0. ],

[ 3. , 122. , 88.6, ..., 1. , 1. , 0. ],
[ 1. , 122. , 94.5, ..., 1. , 1. , 0. ],
...,
[ -1. , 95. , 109.1, ..., 1. , 1. , 0. ],
[ -1. , 95. , 109.1, ..., 0. , 0. , 1. ],
[ -1. , 95. , 109.1, ..., 1. , 0. , 1. ]])

# The data is already cleaned

# Build a model (decision tree)
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier
model = DecisionTreeClassifier()
# here we are using the decision tree algo to predict. we could also regress

# fit the model

model.fit(X,Y)

DecisionTreeClassifier()

Proprietor: Mustakim Shahriar Fahim

Copyright®

GitHub: https://github.com/fin-mustakim