A02 Bca
A02 Bca
A02 Bca
Benefits
Safety
Reduced Highway Fatalities and Crashes $6.6 $13.6
Detour Safety Savings $1.6 $3.3
Sub-Total Safety Benefits $8.2 $16.9
Economic Vitality
Residual Value $247.8 $342.0
Travel Time Savings (US 70 Report) $213.3 $443.9
Truck Vehicle Operating Savings $47.2 $98.2
Fiber Benefits $61.2 $128.5
Autonomous Vehicles Benefit $43.6 $316.1
Reliability Savings from ICM $231.8 $495.8
Detour Travel Time Savings $2.3 $4.8
Detour Truck Operating Savings $0.5 $1.1
Sub-Total Economic Vitality $847.6 $1,830.5
Environmental
Emissions Savings (auto) $0.4 $0.9
Emissions Savings (truck) $2.3 $4.9
Sub-Total Environmental $2.8 $5.8
O&M Costs -$84.9 -$174.5
Net O&M -$84.9 -$174.5
Total Benefits $773.7 $1,678.7
Economic Vitality
Value of Personal Time, 2016$ $13.60
Value of Business Time, 2016$ $25.40
Value of Time All Purposes, 2016$ $14.10
Value of Time Truck, 2016$ $27.20
Value of Personal Time, 2017$ $13.85
Value of Business Time, 2017$ $25.87
Value of Time All Purposes, 2017$ $14.36
Value of Time Truck, 2017$ $27.70
Truck operating savings per hour (2014$) $46.23
Truck operating savings per hour (2017$) $48.20
Average Trip Length on I-95, 2009 45.10
Average Trip Length on I-95, 2040 No Build 44.06
Reliability savings 4%
Environmental
VOC Value of Emissions (2016$) per metric ton $1,872
NOx Value of Emissions (2016$) per metric ton $7,377
PM Value of Emissions (2016$) per metric ton $337,459
SOx Value of Emissions (2016$) per metric ton $43,600
VOC Value of Emissions (2017$) per metric ton $1,906
NOx Value of Emissions (2017$) per metric ton $7,512
PM Value of Emissions (2017$) per metric ton $343,654
SOx Value of Emissions (2017$) per metric ton $44,400
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, VOC, 2013-2024 0.6
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, Nox, 2013-2024 0.91
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, PM25, 2013-2024 0.01
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, CO2, 2013-2024 532
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, VOC, 2025-2034 0.27
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, Nox, 2025-2034 0.28
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, PM25, 2025-2034 0.01
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, CO2, 2025-2034 434
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, VOC, 2035- 0.21
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, Nox, 2035- 0.2
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, PM25, 2035- 0.01
Passenger Car Emission Rates per Mile, CO2, 2035- 397
Passenger Car Gasoline Consumption Per mile 0.04149
LDGV Emissions Rates g/hr VOC 2.683
LDGV Emissions Rates g/hr NOX 3.515
Truck Emissions Rate g per hour VOC (average of 8a and 8b trucks) 3.868
Truck Emissions Rate g per hour Nox (average of 8a and 8b trucks) 39.0515
Truck Emissions Rate g per hour PM2.5 (average of 8a and 8b trucks) 1.092
Truck Emissions Rate g per hour PM10 (average of 8a and 8b trucks) 1.187
Safety
AIS 0 (2016$) per vehicle $4,252
AIS 1 (2016$) $28,800
AIS 2(2016$) $451,200
AIS 3(2016$) $1,008,000
AIS 4(2016$) $2,553,600
AIS 5(2016$) $5,692,800
AIS 6(2016$) $9,600,000
AIS 0 (2017$) per vehicle $4,330
AIS 1 (2017$) $29,329
AIS 2 (2017$) $459,483
AIS 3 (2017$) $1,026,505
AIS 4 (2017$) $2,600,480
AIS 5 (2017$) $5,797,311
AIS 6 (2017$) $9,776,242
C - possible injury (2016$) $63,900
B - non-incapacitating injury (2016$) $125,000
A - incapacitating (2016$) $459,100
K - killed (2016$) $9,600,000
C - possible injury (2017$) $65,073
B - non-incapacitating injury (2017$) $127,295
A - incapacitating (2017$) $467,528
K - killed (2017$) $9,776,242
Source
https://connect.ncdot.gov/resources/State-Mapping/Documents/NCDOT2016InterstateFreewayReport.pdf
US 70 Corridor Economic Assessment
NCDOT https://nc01920485.schoolwires.net/cms/lib/NC01920485/Centricity/Domain/16/US 70 Corridor 2014-2016 Crash Dat
based on 2016 and 2040 AADT as shown above
Assumption
North Carolina I-95 Economic Assessment Study, Task 4 Travel Demand Modeling, 2013
North Carolina I-95 Economic Assessment Study, Task 4 Travel Demand Modeling, 2013
Statewide Travel Demand Model
Statewide Travel Demand Model
NCDOT
ance, driver benefits, and insurance. Excludes driver time (valued in travel time savings)
ing_Results_Report__FHWA-JPO-12-037_.pdf
-tractor trailer rigs ranging from 33,001 lbs to >60,000 lbs
-tractor trailer rigs ranging from 33,001 lbs to >60,000 lbs
-tractor trailer rigs ranging from 33,001 lbs to >60,000 lbs
-tractor trailer rigs ranging from 33,001 lbs to >60,000 lbs
US 70 based on CS 70 Economic Assessment Study
Truck
Auto Annual
Vehicles AADT Annual VHT Annual
Hours Saved
Hours Saved
Construction
Year Fiber ICM Detour Routing DSRC
Costs
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 $76,396,363
2020 $74,531,091
2021 $27,091,182
2022 $27,091,182
2023 $27,090,182
2024 $0
2025 $27,500,000
2026 $0
2027 $176,100,000 $10,000,000 $6,710,000 $250,000 $2,080,000
1 2028
2 2029
3 2030
4 2031
5 2032
6 2033
7 2034
8 2035
9 2036
10 2037
11 2038
12 2039
13 2040
14 2041
15 2042
16 2043
17 2044
18 2045
19 2046
20 2047
Total $435,800,000 $10,000,000 $6,710,000 $250,000 $2,080,000
I-95
Construction
Year Fiber ICM Detour Routing DSRC
Costs
2015
2016
2017
2018 $6,480,000
2019 $9,000,000
2020 $22,500,000
2021 $22,500,000
2022 $0
2023 $0
2024 $42,800,000
2025 $0
2026 $94,896,948
2027 $199,103,052 $14,000,000 $9,625,000 $750,000 $3,260,000
1 2028
2 2029
3 2030
4 2031
5 2032
6 2033
7 2034
8 2035
9 2036
10 2037
11 2038
12 2039
13 2040
14 2041
15 2042
16 2043
17 2044
18 2045
19 2046
20 2047
Total $397,280,000 $14,000,000 $9,625,000 $750,000 $3,260,000
O&M Costs
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$76,396,363 $66,727,542 $72,010,900
$74,531,091 $60,839,572 $68,206,507
$27,091,182 $20,667,733 $24,070,164
$27,091,182 $19,315,638 $23,369,091
$27,090,182 $18,051,332 $22,687,601
$0 $0 $0
$27,500,000 $16,005,250 $21,708,754
$0 $0 $0
$195,140,000 $99,199,281 $145,202,487
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $7,156,000 $50,000 $100,000
$454,840,000 $300,806,348 $377,255,503 $143,120,000 $1,000,000 $2,000,000
O&M Costs
Total Capital Discounted Discounted Capital Highway O&M
Fiber ITS
Costs Capital Total (7%) Total (3%) and R&R
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$6,480,000 $6,056,075 $6,291,262
$9,000,000 $7,860,949 $8,483,363
$22,500,000 $18,366,702 $20,590,687
$22,500,000 $17,165,142 $19,990,959
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$42,800,000 $26,653,689 $34,800,317
$0 $0 $0
$94,896,948 $51,617,652 $72,730,609
$226,738,052 $115,262,128 $168,714,405
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$0 $0 $0 $8,303,000 $50,000 $100,000
$424,915,000 $242,982,337 $331,601,601 $166,060,000 $1,000,000 $2,000,000
Discounted O&M Discounted O&M
O&M Total
Total (7%) Total (3%)
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$7,306,000 $3,471,028 $5,278,010
$7,306,000 $3,243,951 $5,124,281
$7,306,000 $3,031,730 $4,975,030
$7,306,000 $2,833,393 $4,830,127
$7,306,000 $2,648,031 $4,689,443
$7,306,000 $2,474,795 $4,552,858
$7,306,000 $2,312,892 $4,420,250
$7,306,000 $2,161,582 $4,291,505
$7,306,000 $2,020,170 $4,166,510
$7,306,000 $1,888,009 $4,045,155
$7,306,000 $1,764,495 $3,927,335
$7,306,000 $1,649,060 $3,812,947
$7,306,000 $1,541,178 $3,701,890
$7,306,000 $1,440,353 $3,594,068
$7,306,000 $1,346,124 $3,489,386
$7,306,000 $1,258,060 $3,387,754
$7,306,000 $1,175,757 $3,289,081
$7,306,000 $1,098,839 $3,193,283
$7,306,000 $1,026,952 $3,100,275
$7,306,000 $959,768 $3,009,975
$146,120,000 $39,346,168 $80,879,163
Discounted O&M Discounted O&M
O&M Total
Total (7%) Total (3%)
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$8,453,000 $4,015,959 $6,106,627
$8,453,000 $3,753,233 $5,928,764
$8,453,000 $3,507,694 $5,756,082
$8,453,000 $3,278,219 $5,588,429
$8,453,000 $3,063,756 $5,425,659
$8,453,000 $2,863,324 $5,267,630
$8,453,000 $2,676,003 $5,114,204
$8,453,000 $2,500,938 $4,965,247
$8,453,000 $2,337,325 $4,820,628
$8,453,000 $2,184,416 $4,680,221
$8,453,000 $2,041,510 $4,543,904
$8,453,000 $1,907,953 $4,411,557
$8,453,000 $1,783,134 $4,283,065
$8,453,000 $1,666,480 $4,158,316
$8,453,000 $1,557,458 $4,037,200
$8,453,000 $1,455,569 $3,919,612
$8,453,000 $1,360,344 $3,805,448
$8,453,000 $1,271,350 $3,694,610
$8,453,000 $1,188,177 $3,587,000
$8,453,000 $1,110,446 $3,482,524
$169,060,000 $45,523,290 $93,576,726
STIP # STIP Page "Ask" Cost Estimate "Match" Cost Estimate
216,800,000
B SR 1002 (LONG BRANCH R 700,000 42,100,000
Improve interchanges at
SR 1808 (Jonesboro
Road – Exit 75)
AND 14,580,000 1,080,000
SR 1709 (Hodges Chapel
Road – Exit 77)
Improve interchanges at
SR 1793 (Pope Road –
Exit 72)
31,320,000 4,320,000
AND
US 421 (Exit 73)
Improve interchanges at
SR 1811 (Bud Hawkins
Road – Exit 70)
14,580,000 1,080,000
AND
SR 1001 (Long Branch
Road – Exit 71)
Schedule
Construction Cost Utilities Right-of-Way Construction
112,103,052
13,500,000
2019 (4500)
2020 (4500)
2018 (1080) 2021 (4500)
27,000,000
2020 (13500)
2018 (4320) 2021 (13500)
13,500,000
2019 (4500)
2020 (4500)
2018 (1080) 2021 (4500)
Federal CE
Federal CE
Federal CE
Total
6,480,000
9,000,000
22,500,000
22,500,000
0
0
42,800,000
0
94,896,948
199,103,052
STIP # STIP Page "Ask" Cost Estimate "Match" Cost Estimate
Upgrade US 70 to
freeway standard from
the proposed West
Thurman Road/East
Thurman Road 131,900,000 1,100,000 28,500,000
Interchange (STIP
Project R-5777B) to the
Havelock Bypass (STIP
Project R-1015)
TABERNA WAY.
CONVERT AT-GRADE
52,200,000 3,300,000 26,700,000
INTERSECTION TO
INTERCHANGE.
WEST THURMAN
ROAD/EAST THURMAN
ROAD. CONVERT AT- 51,700,000 3,000,000 24,500,000
GRADE INTERSECTION
TO INTERCHANGE
SR 1124 (GRANTHAM
ROAD) TO NEUSE RIVER
180,000,000 2,727,272 68,181,819
BRIDGE. UPGRADE
ROADWAY TO FREEWAY.
UPGRADE TO
INTERSTATE STANDARDS 20,000,000
FROM EASTERN END OF
US 70 KINSTON BYPASS
TO US 17 EAST OF NEW
BERN.
Schedule
Construction Cost Utilities Right-of-Way Construction
102,300,000
2019 (1110)
2019 (13350) 2020 (5272)
22,200,000 2019 (3300)
2020 (13350) 2021 (5273)
2022 (5273)
2023 (5272)
2027 (24200)
2019
2019 2020
109,090,909 2019
2020 2021
2022
2023
20,000,000
2027
N/A
CE III (2018)
CE III (2018)
CE III (2018)
Total
76,396,363
74,531,091
27,091,182
27,091,182
27,090,182
0
27,500,000
0
176,100,000
R&R with
Current O&M Current R&R for O&M with Upgrade
Current Total Upgrade for
for Segment Segment for Segment
Segment
US 70 $ 73,472,000 $ 32,989,000 $ 106,461,000 $ 74,176,000 $ 39,441,000
Excel Sources:
I-42 Maintenance Cost Model V3 - End of R-5777B to Havelock Bypass upgraded
I-42 Maintenance Cost Model V3 - End of R-5777B to Havelock Bypass Existing
Incremental
Upgrade Total
Change
$ 113,617,000 $ 7,156,000
O&M with R&R with
Current O&M Current R&R
STIP # Current Total Upgrade for Upgrade for Upgrade Total
for Segment for Segment
Segment Segment
I-95 $ 21,294,000 $ 9,472,000 $ 30,766,000 $ 22,617,000 $ 16,452,000 $ 39,069,000
Excel Sources:
I-95 Maintenance Cost I-95 Exit 65 to Exit 81 improved
I-95 Maintenance Cost I-95 Exit 65 to Exit 81 existing
Incremental
Change
$ 8,303,000
Autonomous Vehicles Benefit
"Autonomous Cars Self-Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm", Morgan Stanley, November 6, 2013, pp48-52
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/Nov2013MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-CARS%EF
Paper Assumptions
V2V Costs 2013$
Per car for ~half of the cars (near-term) (2013$) $ 10,000
Per car for ~half of the cars (long-term) (2013$) $ 2,000
Cars on the road 250,000,000
Benefits
I-95 Economy/US Economy 0.04%
US70 Economy/US Economy 0.01%
2013$M
Annual Benefits to the US Economy: Base Case $ 1,300,000
Annual Benefits to the I-95 Economy: Base Case $ 457
Annual Benefits to the US70 Economy: Base Case $ 129
I-95 Costs
Vehicles Vehicles
2028 87,833
2029 91,055
2030 94,396
2031 97,859
2032 101,450
2033 105,172
2034 109,030
2035 113,030
2036 117,177
2037 121,476
2038 125,933
2039 130,554
2040 135,344
2041 140,309
2042 145,457
2043 150,794
2044 156,326
2045 162,061
2046 168,007
2047 174,171
Total
US70 Costs
Vehicles Vehicles
2028 24,739
2029 25,139
2030 25,547
2031 25,960
2032 26,381
2033 26,808
2034 27,243
2035 27,684
2036 28,132
2037 28,588
2038 29,051
2039 29,522
2040 30,000
2041 30,486
2042 30,980
2043 31,482
2044 31,992
2045 32,510
2046 33,036
2047 33,572
2048 34,115
Total 612,967
ey, November 6, 2013, pp48-52
TANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-CARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM.pdf
2017$ Costs:
$ 10,617 · Assumed $10k per car for half of the cars in the near term
$ 2,123 · Assumed $2k per car for half of the cars long-term
· 250M cars on the road
· No costs were assumed for infrastructure (V2I) or maintenance
$ 1,433,345,843,498 · $1.35T for cost of turnover (net of new car cost), $2013 undiscounted = (45%*250M*$10
$ 1,433,346
Benefits:
· Benefits include fuel savings, accident savings, productivity gain, and fuel and productivity
· Based on the source above which cites annual benefits of $1.3T in 2013$ (see pg 48/109)
2017$M · High starts at 1% of the annual benefits in 2028, reaching 90% by 2048. Total $12.9T undi
$ 1,380,259 · Low starts at 0% of the annual benefits in 2028 reaching 40% by 2048. Total $4.2T undisco
$ 485 · Assumes the nation can get 100% of the benefits without 100% of the vehicles.
$ 137
Costs
Baseline
Adoption Curve Cost Discounted 7% Discounted 3%
Ramp-up
14% $135,220,145 $64,242,117 $97,685,910 1%
18% $34,447,472 $15,295,089 $24,160,763 2%
21% $36,793,134 $15,267,843 $25,054,334 4%
24% $39,264,547 $15,227,468 $25,958,491 6%
27% $41,867,780 $15,174,810 $26,873,335 8%
30% $44,609,180 $15,110,673 $27,798,966 10%
33% $47,495,381 $15,035,821 $28,735,487 13%
36% $50,533,318 $14,950,985 $29,682,998 16%
39% $53,730,239 $14,856,859 $30,641,604 20%
45% $96,431,444 $24,919,718 $53,391,753 23%
49% $15,198,548 $3,670,648 $8,169,969 25%
53% $16,157,534 $3,646,968 $8,432,496 30%
57% $17,166,429 $3,621,205 $8,698,088 35%
61% $18,227,605 $3,593,511 $8,966,774 40%
65% $19,343,541 $3,564,032 $9,238,583 46%
70% $20,516,826 $3,532,905 $9,513,544 49%
74% $21,750,166 $3,500,262 $9,791,687 53%
78% $23,046,389 $3,466,228 $10,073,041 57%
82% $24,408,448 $3,430,920 $10,357,636 62%
86% $25,839,431 $3,394,452 $10,645,503 66%
10 782,047,558 245,502,514 463,870,962 6
Assumes nation can get to 100%
Costs
Baseline
Adoption Curve Cost Discounted 7% Discounted 3%
Ramp-up
14% $38,085,612 $18,094,200 $27,513,856 1%
18% $8,757,836 $3,888,584 $6,142,570 2%
21% $9,031,579 $3,747,784 $6,150,066 4%
24% $9,311,894 $3,611,313 $6,156,259 6%
27% $9,598,920 $3,479,090 $6,161,181 8%
30% $9,892,801 $3,351,034 $6,164,867 10%
33% $10,193,685 $3,227,060 $6,167,347 13%
36% $10,501,721 $3,107,080 $6,168,654 16%
39% $10,817,062 $2,991,008 $6,168,819 20%
45% $20,397,539 $5,271,112 $11,293,623 23%
49% $2,966,181 $716,372 $1,594,469 25%
53% $3,055,112 $689,579 $1,594,440 30%
57% $3,146,145 $663,669 $1,594,126 35%
61% $3,239,325 $638,622 $1,593,533 40%
65% $3,334,700 $614,416 $1,592,671 46%
70% $3,432,314 $591,029 $1,591,546 49%
74% $3,532,215 $568,441 $1,590,165 53%
78% $3,634,452 $546,630 $1,588,535 57%
82% $3,739,075 $525,575 $1,586,663 62%
86% $3,846,134 $505,256 $1,584,556 66%
90% $3,955,680 $485,651 $1,582,221 70%
11 $174,469,980 $57,313,505 $105,580,167 6
discounted = (45%*250M*$10K)+(45%*250M*$2k)
Benefits
Low Ramp- High Ramp- Discounted Discounted
Low Benefits Average Benefits
up up 7% 3%
0% 1% $0 $0 $0 $2,424,637
1% 2% $2,424,637 $1,076,568 $1,700,592 $6,061,593
1% 3% $4,849,274 $2,012,276 $3,302,120 $9,698,548
2% 5% $7,273,911 $2,820,948 $4,808,912 $15,760,141
3% 8% $13,335,504 $4,833,400 $8,559,553 $26,064,849
4% 15% $19,397,097 $6,570,468 $12,087,629 $46,068,105
6% 21% $29,095,645 $9,210,936 $17,603,344 $65,465,201
7% 29% $33,944,919 $10,043,077 $19,939,062 $87,286,935
8% 36% $38,794,193 $10,726,918 $22,123,786 $106,684,032
10% 45% $48,492,742 $12,531,446 $26,849,255 $133,355,040
11% 50% $53,342,016 $12,882,795 $28,673,962 $147,902,862
13% 52% $63,040,564 $14,229,085 $32,900,398 $157,601,410
16% 55% $77,588,387 $16,367,028 $39,313,395 $172,149,233
20% 60% $96,985,483 $19,120,360 $47,710,431 $193,970,967
25% 65% $121,231,854 $22,336,869 $57,901,009 $218,217,338
27% 70% $130,930,403 $22,545,625 $60,711,737 $235,189,797
31% 75% $150,327,499 $24,192,260 $67,675,795 $257,011,531
34% 80% $164,875,322 $24,797,613 $72,063,170 $276,408,628
36% 85% $174,573,870 $24,538,595 $74,079,787 $293,381,087
38% 87% $184,272,418 $24,207,336 $75,917,797 $303,079,636
3 8 1,414,775,739 265,043,603 673,921,734 $2,753,781,568
sumes nation can get to 100% of benefits without 100% of the vehicles
Benefits
Low Ramp- High Ramp- Discounted Discounted
Low Benefits Average Benefits
up up 7% 3%
0% 1% $0 $0 $0 $2,424,637
1% 2% $682,914 $303,222 $478,982 $5,190,731
1% 3% $1,365,829 $566,770 $930,063 $7,956,826
2% 5% $2,048,743 $794,538 $1,354,461 $13,147,557
3% 8% $3,756,029 $1,361,358 $2,410,852 $21,275,111
4% 15% $5,463,315 $1,850,614 $3,404,558 $39,101,214
6% 21% $8,194,973 $2,594,319 $4,958,093 $55,014,865
7% 29% $9,560,802 $2,828,696 $5,615,963 $75,094,876
8% 36% $10,926,631 $3,021,304 $6,231,305 $92,750,250
10% 45% $13,658,288 $3,529,561 $7,562,263 $115,937,813
11% 50% $15,024,117 $3,628,521 $8,076,203 $128,743,913
13% 52% $17,755,775 $4,007,712 $9,266,606 $134,959,016
16% 55% $21,853,261 $4,609,877 $11,072,867 $144,281,670
20% 60% $27,316,577 $5,385,371 $13,437,946 $159,136,513
25% 65% $34,145,721 $6,291,321 $16,308,186 $174,674,271
27% 70% $36,877,379 $6,350,118 $17,099,846 $188,163,285
31% 75% $42,340,694 $6,813,903 $19,061,317 $203,018,128
34% 80% $46,438,180 $6,984,405 $20,297,049 $217,190,057
36% 85% $49,169,838 $6,911,451 $20,865,042 $230,679,071
38% 87% $51,901,496 $6,818,150 $21,382,729 $236,894,174
40% 90% $54,633,153 $6,707,477 $21,852,559 $245,533,914
3 9 $1,608,746,705 $81,358,688 $211,666,890 $2,491,167,895
Discounted
Discounted 3% High Benefits Discounted 7% Discounted 3%
7%
$1,151,928 $1,751,609 $4,849,274 $2,303,855 $3,503,219
$2,691,420 $4,251,479 $9,698,548 $4,306,271 $6,802,367
$4,024,553 $6,604,239 $14,547,823 $6,036,829 $9,906,359
$6,112,054 $10,419,310 $24,246,371 $9,403,161 $16,029,707
$9,447,101 $16,730,035 $38,794,193 $14,060,801 $24,900,516
$15,604,861 $28,708,120 $72,739,113 $24,639,254 $45,328,610
$20,724,606 $39,607,523 $101,834,758 $32,238,276 $61,611,703
$25,825,054 $51,271,875 $140,628,951 $41,607,032 $82,604,687
$29,499,024 $60,840,413 $174,573,870 $48,271,130 $99,557,039
$34,461,476 $73,835,452 $218,217,338 $56,391,507 $120,821,649
$35,720,477 $79,505,076 $242,463,708 $58,558,159 $130,336,191
$35,572,713 $82,250,994 $252,162,257 $56,916,341 $131,601,591
$36,314,344 $87,226,596 $266,710,079 $56,261,660 $135,139,796
$38,240,720 $95,420,862 $290,956,450 $57,361,081 $143,131,294
$40,206,365 $104,221,816 $315,202,821 $58,075,861 $150,542,623
$40,498,623 $109,056,269 $339,449,192 $58,451,621 $157,400,800
$41,360,960 $115,703,778 $363,695,563 $58,529,660 $163,731,762
$41,572,469 $120,811,786 $387,941,933 $58,347,325 $169,560,401
$41,238,472 $124,495,197 $412,188,304 $57,938,349 $174,910,608
$39,814,698 $124,864,797 $421,886,853 $55,422,060 $173,811,797
$540,081,918 $1,337,577,226 $4,092,787,398 $815,120,233 $2,001,232,719
Discounted
Discounted 3% High Benefits Discounted 7% Discounted 3%
7%
$1,151,928 $1,751,609 $4,849,274 $2,303,855 $3,503,219
$2,304,747 $3,640,675 $9,698,548 $4,306,271 $6,802,367
$3,301,800 $5,418,211 $14,547,823 $6,036,829 $9,906,359
$5,098,849 $8,692,084 $24,246,371 $9,403,161 $16,029,707
$7,711,079 $13,655,684 $38,794,193 $14,060,801 $24,900,516
$13,244,934 $24,366,584 $72,739,113 $24,639,254 $45,328,610
$17,416,297 $33,284,898 $101,834,758 $32,238,276 $61,611,703
$22,217,864 $44,110,325 $140,628,951 $41,607,032 $82,604,687
$25,646,217 $52,894,172 $174,573,870 $48,271,130 $99,557,039
$29,960,534 $64,191,956 $218,217,338 $56,391,507 $120,821,649
$31,093,340 $69,206,197 $242,463,708 $58,558,159 $130,336,191
$30,462,027 $70,434,098 $252,162,257 $56,916,341 $131,601,591
$30,435,769 $73,106,332 $266,710,079 $56,261,660 $135,139,796
$31,373,226 $78,284,620 $290,956,450 $57,361,081 $143,131,294
$32,183,591 $83,425,405 $315,202,821 $58,075,861 $150,542,623
$32,400,870 $87,250,323 $339,449,192 $58,451,621 $157,400,800
$32,671,782 $91,396,539 $363,695,563 $58,529,660 $163,731,762
$32,665,865 $94,928,725 $387,941,933 $58,347,325 $169,560,401
$32,424,900 $97,887,825 $412,188,304 $57,938,349 $174,910,608
$31,120,105 $97,597,263 $421,886,853 $55,422,060 $173,811,797
$30,144,937 $98,210,409 $436,434,675 $53,582,397 $174,568,260
$475,030,661 $1,193,733,934 $4,529,222,073 $868,702,630 $2,175,800,979
Residual Value
Industrial buildings 31
Mobile offices/17/ 16
Office buildings/17/ 36
Commercial warehouses/17/ 40
Other commercial buildings/17/ 34
Religious buildings 48
Educational buildings 48
Hospital and institutional buildings 48
Hotels and motels/18/ 32
Amusement and recreational buildings/18/ 30
All other nonfarm buildings/18/,/19/ 38
Railroad replacement track/19//20/ 38
Other railroad structures/19//20/ 54
Telecommunications/20/ 40
Railroad equipment* 50
Highways and streets 60
Conservation and development 60
Sewer systems 60
Water systems 60
Military facilities 50
Other 60
Source: BEA Rate of Depreciation, Service Lives, Declining-Balance Rates, and Hulten-Wykoff Categories
http://www.bea.gov/scb/account_articles/national/wlth2594/tableC.htm
Bridge structures 75
Source: USDOT Bridge Preservation guide, Maintaining a State of Good Repair Using Cost Effective Investment Stra
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiv-8XR8
Total
2017 $
ROW does not depreciate $203,686,687
Total
Remaining Value
Highway $ 329,543,446
Utilities $ 6,132,988
Subtotal $ 335,676,434
Total Value Remaining after 2042 $ 539,363,121
Discounted at 3% $ 341,980,933
Discounted at 7% $ 247,783,532
US70
Remaining Value
Highway $ 148,155,151
Utilities $ 5,401,212
Subtotal $ 153,556,363
+ Right of Way undiscounted Total Value Remaining after 2047 $ 301,438,182
+ Right of Way undiscounted Discounted at 3% $ 211,145,007
+ Right of Way undiscounted Discounted at 7% $ 168,054,076
I-95
Remaining Value
Highway $ 181,388,294
Utilities $ 731,776
Subtotal $ 182,120,070
+ Right of Way undiscounted Total Value Remaining after $ 237,924,938 + Right of Way undiscounted
+ Right of Way undiscounted Discounted at 3% $ 130,835,926 + Right of Way undiscounted
+ Right of Way undiscounted Discounted at 7% $ 79,729,457 + Right of Way undiscounted
US 70
Pollutant Emissions Rates per VMT (grams/hr) Reduced Pollutants per Year (tons)
Reduced Auto
Year
Hours VOC NOx VOC NOx
I-95
Pollutant Emissions Rates per VMT (grams/hr) Reduced Pollutants per Year (tons)
Reduced Auto
Year
Hours VOC NOx VOC NOx
Discounted
Emissions 3%
$14,866
$14,948
$15,031
$15,115
$15,198
$15,283
$15,368
$15,453
$15,539
$15,625
$15,712
$15,799
$15,886
$15,989
$16,093
$16,198
$16,303
$16,409
$16,515
$16,623
$313,953
Reduced Truck Emissions
US 70
Pollutant Emissions Rates per VMT (grams/hr) Reduced Pollutant
Reduced Truck
Year
Hours VOC NOx PM25 PM10 VOC
I-95
Pollutant Emissions Rates per VMT (grams/hr) Reduced Pollutant
Reduced Truck
Year
Hours VOC NOx PM25 PM10 VOC
US 70 7%
Discounted
Total Truck
Annual Truck Freight
Year Operating Costs
Hours Saved Operating
Saved
Savings
2028 168,567 $8,125,291 $3,860,267
2029 170,269 $8,207,365 $3,644,168
2030 171,989 $8,290,268 $3,440,166
2031 173,727 $8,374,008 $3,247,585
2032 175,481 $8,458,594 $3,065,784
2033 177,254 $8,544,034 $2,894,160
2034 179,044 $8,630,337 $2,732,144
2035 180,853 $8,717,513 $2,579,197
2036 182,680 $8,805,568 $2,434,813
2037 184,525 $8,894,513 $2,298,511
2038 186,389 $8,984,357 $2,169,840
2039 188,272 $9,075,108 $2,048,371
2040 190,173 $9,166,776 $1,933,703
2041 192,094 $9,259,370 $1,825,453
2042 194,035 $9,352,899 $1,723,264
2043 195,995 $9,447,372 $1,626,795
2044 197,974 $9,542,800 $1,535,726
2045 199,974 $9,639,192 $1,449,756
2046 201,974 $9,735,584 $1,368,461
2047 203,994 $9,832,940 $1,291,725
Total 3,715,262 $179,083,889 $47,169,889
3%
Discounted Freight
Operating Savings
$5,869,883
$5,756,481
$5,645,269
$5,536,206
$5,429,249
$5,324,360
$5,221,496
$5,120,620
$5,021,693
$4,924,676
$4,829,535
$4,736,231
$4,644,730
$4,554,996
$4,466,996
$4,380,697
$4,296,064
$4,213,067
$4,131,260
$4,051,041
$98,154,550
Detour Savings
Injured -
Severity O - No
Unknown injury
Accidents by Type Per 100,000,000 VM AIS 0 0.21538 0.92534
AIS 1 0.62728 0.07257
Fatalities AIS 2 0.104 0.00198
Injured pe AIS 3 0.03858 0.00008
Crashes AIS 4 0.00442 0
Source: 2015 BTS Motor Vehicle Safety AIS 5 0.01034 0.00003
http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_17.htm
TIGER 2016 BCA Resource Guide:
https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/BCA%20Resource%20Guide%
Reduced Reduced
Year Fatalities MAIS 5 MAIS 4 MAIS 3 MAIS 2
Injuries Crashes
Discounted at
3%
$63,748
$62,894
$62,051
$61,219
$60,399
$59,590
$58,791
$58,004
$57,227
$56,460
$55,703
$54,957
$54,221
$53,494
$52,777
$52,070
$51,372
$50,684
$50,005
$49,335
$1,125,001
d by MAIS
Discounted Discounted
MAIS 1 PDO Total Crash Costs at Crash Costs at
7% 3%
$18,466 $8,705 $260,873 $123,939 $188,460
$18,765 $8,846 $265,099 $117,707 $185,935
$19,069 $8,989 $269,393 $111,789 $183,444
$19,378 $9,135 $273,757 $106,168 $180,986
$19,691 $9,283 $278,192 $100,829 $178,561
$20,010 $9,433 $282,698 $95,760 $176,168
$20,335 $9,586 $287,278 $90,945 $173,808
$20,664 $9,741 $291,931 $86,372 $171,479
$20,999 $9,899 $296,660 $82,029 $169,181
$21,339 $10,060 $301,466 $77,904 $166,914
$21,684 $10,223 $306,349 $73,987 $164,678
$22,036 $10,388 $311,312 $70,267 $162,471
$22,393 $10,556 $316,355 $66,734 $160,294
$22,755 $10,727 $321,479 $63,379 $158,147
$23,124 $10,901 $326,687 $60,192 $156,028
$23,499 $11,078 $331,979 $57,165 $153,937
$23,879 $11,257 $337,357 $54,291 $151,874
$24,266 $11,440 $342,822 $51,561 $149,839
$24,659 $11,625 $348,375 $48,969 $147,832
$25,059 $11,813 $354,018 $46,506 $145,851
432,069 203,686 6,104,080 1,586,493 3,325,887
Willingness to Pay for Fiber
WTP $10.37 assumed per household to increase up to at least 4Mbps
Assumed willing to pay once per year
Includes only counties directly along I-95 or US 70
https://www.colorado.edu/economics/gradplacement/PetersonJMP.pdf
I-95 7% 3%
Discounted Fiber Discounted
Year Households WTP
Savings Fiber Savings
2010 374,838 $3,887,070 $6,241,785 $4,780,606
2011 387,614 $4,019,554 $6,032,267 $4,799,558
2012 400,825 $4,156,554 $5,829,782 $4,818,585
2013 414,486 $4,298,223 $5,634,094 $4,837,688
2014 428,613 $4,444,721 $5,444,975 $4,856,867
2015 443,222 $4,596,212 $5,262,203 $4,876,121
2016 458,328 $4,752,866 $5,085,567 $4,895,452
2017 473,950 $4,914,860 $4,914,860 $4,914,860
2018 490,104 $5,082,375 $4,749,883 $4,934,344
2019 506,808 $5,255,599 $4,590,444 $4,953,906
2020 524,082 $5,434,727 $4,436,356 $4,973,545
2021 541,944 $5,619,961 $4,287,441 $4,993,262
2022 560,415 $5,811,508 $4,143,525 $5,013,058
2023 579,516 $6,009,583 $4,004,439 $5,032,932
2024 599,268 $6,214,410 $3,870,022 $5,052,884
2025 619,693 $6,426,218 $3,740,117 $5,072,916
2026 640,814 $6,645,245 $3,614,573 $5,093,027
2027 662,655 $6,871,737 $3,493,243 $5,113,218
2028 685,241 $7,105,949 $3,375,985 $5,133,488
2029 708,596 $7,348,143 $3,262,663 $5,153,840
2030 721,233 $7,479,185 $3,103,596 $5,092,961
2031 734,095 $7,612,564 $2,952,283 $5,032,801
2032 747,186 $7,748,321 $2,808,348 $4,973,352
2033 760,511 $7,886,499 $2,671,430 $4,914,606
2034 774,073 $8,027,142 $2,541,188 $4,856,553
2035 787,878 $8,170,293 $2,417,295 $4,799,186
2036 801,928 $8,315,996 $2,299,442 $4,742,496
2037 816,229 $8,464,298 $2,187,336 $4,686,477
2038 830,785 $8,615,245 $2,080,694 $4,631,119
2039 845,601 $8,768,883 $1,979,252 $4,576,414
2040 860,681 $8,925,262 $1,882,756 $4,522,357
2041 876,030 $9,084,429 $1,790,964 $4,468,937
2042 891,652 $9,246,435 $1,703,648 $4,416,149
2043 907,553 $9,411,329 $1,620,589 $4,363,984
2044 923,738 $9,579,165 $1,541,579 $4,312,435
2045 940,211 $9,749,993 $1,466,421 $4,261,495
2046 956,979 $9,923,868 $1,394,927 $4,211,157
2047 974,045 $10,100,844 $1,326,919 $4,161,414
Total 16,544,247 $171,563,843 $44,407,315 $93,311,221
US 70 7% 3%
Discounted Fiber Discounted
Year Households WTP
Savings Fiber Savings
2010 141,327 $1,465,561 $2,353,371 $1,802,455
2011 146,144 $1,515,512 $2,274,375 $1,809,601
2012 151,125 $1,567,166 $2,198,031 $1,816,775
2013 156,276 $1,620,580 $2,124,250 $1,823,977
2014 161,602 $1,675,815 $2,052,945 $1,831,208
2015 167,110 $1,732,932 $1,984,034 $1,838,468
2016 172,806 $1,791,996 $1,917,436 $1,845,756
2017 178,696 $1,853,074 $1,853,074 $1,853,074
2018 184,786 $1,916,233 $1,790,872 $1,860,420
2019 191,084 $1,981,544 $1,730,757 $1,867,795
2020 197,597 $2,049,082 $1,672,661 $1,875,200
2021 204,332 $2,118,921 $1,616,515 $1,882,634
2022 211,296 $2,191,141 $1,562,253 $1,890,098
2023 218,498 $2,265,823 $1,509,813 $1,897,591
2024 225,945 $2,343,049 $1,459,133 $1,905,114
2025 233,646 $2,422,908 $1,410,155 $1,912,666
2026 241,609 $2,505,489 $1,362,820 $1,920,249
2027 249,844 $2,590,884 $1,317,074 $1,927,861
2028 258,360 $2,679,190 $1,272,864 $1,935,504
2029 267,165 $2,770,506 $1,230,138 $1,943,177
2030 271,930 $2,819,914 $1,170,164 $1,920,224
2031 276,779 $2,870,202 $1,113,114 $1,897,542
2032 281,715 $2,921,387 $1,058,845 $1,875,127
2033 286,739 $2,973,485 $1,007,222 $1,852,978
2034 291,853 $3,026,513 $958,116 $1,831,090
2035 297,057 $3,080,485 $911,404 $1,809,460
2036 302,355 $3,135,421 $866,970 $1,788,087
2037 307,747 $3,191,336 $824,702 $1,766,965
2038 313,235 $3,248,248 $784,494 $1,746,093
2039 318,821 $3,306,175 $746,247 $1,725,468
2040 324,507 $3,365,135 $709,865 $1,705,086
2041 330,294 $3,425,147 $675,256 $1,684,945
2042 336,184 $3,486,228 $642,335 $1,665,042
2043 342,179 $3,548,399 $611,018 $1,645,374
2044 348,282 $3,611,679 $581,229 $1,625,938
2045 354,493 $3,676,088 $552,892 $1,606,732
2046 360,814 $3,741,644 $525,936 $1,587,753
2047 367,249 $3,808,370 $500,295 $1,568,998
Total 6,237,758 $64,685,553 $16,743,106 $35,181,583
5 and not US 70
cert_2016.html
Reduced Crashes
Location Non-
Incapacitating
Fatal incapacitating Possible Injury (C)
Injury (A)
Injury (B)
I-5986A 0.1 0 0.2 0.3
I-5986B 0 0.1 0.5 0.7
I-5877 0 0 0 0
I-5878 0 0 0 0
I-5883 0 0 0 0
Total 0.1 0.1 0.7 1
Source: AECOM Safety Analysis
I-95 Build
Year F A B C
US70
PDO
3.2
7.3
0
0
0
10.5
Value Saved
I-95 Reliability 4%
NB Average Trip
NB Average Trip Reliability Time Segment
Year Time (hours per
Length 2040 Saved AADT
trip)
2028 45 0.6 0 87,833
2029 45 0.6 0 91,055
2030 44 0.6 0 94,396
2031 44 0.6 0 97,859
2032 44 0.6 0 101,450
2033 44 0.6 0 105,172
2034 44 0.6 0 109,030
2035 44 0.6 0 113,030
2036 44 0.6 0 117,177
2037 44 0.6 0 121,476
2038 44 0.6 0 125,933
2039 44 0.6 0 130,554
2040 44 0.6 0 135,344
2041 44 0.6 0 140,309
2042 44 0.6 0 145,457
2043 44 0.6 0 150,794
2044 44 0.6 0 156,326
2045 44 0.6 0 162,061
2046 44 0.6 0 168,007
2047 44 0.6 0 174,171
Total
*note 2009 average trip length held constant to 2015
US70 Reliability 4%
NB Average Trip
NB Average Trip Reliability Time Segment
Year Time (hours per
Length 2040 Saved AADT
trip)
2028 27 0.5 0 24,739
2029 27 0.5 0 25,139
2030 27 0.5 0 25,547
2031 27 0.5 0 25,960
2032 27 0.5 0 26,381
2033 27 0.5 0 26,808
2034 27 0.5 0 27,243
2035 27 0.5 0 27,684
2036 27 0.5 0 28,132
2037 27 0.5 0 28,588
2038 27 0.5 0 29,051
2039 27 0.5 0 29,522
2040 27 0.5 0 30,000
2041 27 0.5 0 30,486
2042 27 0.5 0 30,980
2043 27 0.5 0 31,482
2044 27 0.5 0 31,992
2045 27 0.5 0 32,510
2046 27 0.5 0 33,036
2047 27 0.5 0 33,572
Total
Annual Time Truck Time Auto Time
VOT Truck VOT Auto Value of Time
Saved Saved Saved
$13,044,241 $19,834,940
$12,626,350 $19,945,111
$12,221,837 $20,055,877
$11,830,272 $20,167,241
$11,451,243 $20,279,205
$11,084,347 $20,391,772
$10,729,198 $20,504,947
$10,385,418 $20,618,731
$10,052,645 $20,733,129
$9,730,526 $20,848,142
$9,418,720 $20,963,776
$9,116,898 $21,080,031
$8,824,740 $21,196,913
$8,550,009 $21,334,567
$8,283,831 $21,473,115
$8,025,940 $21,612,563
$7,776,077 $21,752,916
$7,533,993 $21,894,181
$7,299,446 $22,036,364
$7,072,200 $22,179,469
$195,057,931 $418,902,990
7% 3%
$2,866,929 $4,359,424
$2,722,777 $4,301,012
$2,585,872 $4,243,383
$2,455,851 $4,186,526
$2,332,368 $4,130,431
$2,215,094 $4,075,088
$2,103,716 $4,020,486
$1,997,939 $3,966,615
$1,897,480 $3,913,467
$1,802,072 $3,861,030
$1,711,462 $3,809,297
$1,625,407 $3,758,256
$1,543,680 $3,707,899
$1,466,062 $3,658,217
$1,392,346 $3,609,201
$1,322,337 $3,560,842
$1,255,849 $3,513,130
$1,192,703 $3,466,058
$1,132,732 $3,419,616
$1,075,777 $3,373,797
$36,698,453 $76,933,775
Table 10.1—GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND DEFLATORS USED IN THE HISTORICAL TA
(Fiscal Year 2009 = 1.000)
Downloaded 9/7/17
ED IN THE HISTORICAL TABLES: 1940–2022
Non-
Defense
defense
0.1484 0.1433
0.1573 0.1490
0.1616 0.1581
0.1582 0.1585
0.1536 0.1625
0.1432 0.1668
0.1451 0.1643
0.1616 0.1670
0.1773 0.1903
0.1868 0.1985
0.1860 0.1879
0.2003 0.1978
0.2094 0.2098
0.2118 0.2177
0.2099 0.2163
0.2165 0.2126
0.2280 0.2186
0.2409 0.2291
0.2487 0.2367
0.2532 0.2402
0.2552 0.2439
0.2566 0.2462
0.2588 0.2484
0.2632 0.2508
0.2634 0.2542
0.2641 0.2564
0.2662 0.2576
0.2698 0.2615
0.2755 0.2673
0.2858 0.2775
0.3005 0.2930
0.3196 0.3113
0.3448 0.3259
0.3692 0.3396
0.3912 0.3661
0.4234 0.4061
0.4528 0.4331
0.4722 0.4435
0.4913 0.4578
0.5238 0.4806
0.5581 0.5120
0.5996 0.5584
0.6507 0.6090
0.7045 0.6554
0.7410 0.6765
0.7700 0.6939
0.7773 0.7087
0.7686 0.7174
0.7592 0.7263
0.7575 0.7473
0.7698 0.7722
0.7839 0.7921
0.8054 0.8135
0.8179 0.8208
0.8366 0.8332
0.8570 0.8469
0.8788 0.8701
0.8925 0.8779
0.8888 0.8778
0.8887 0.8786
0.8992 0.8846
0.9108 0.9017
0.9115 0.9113
0.9041 0.9107
0.9118 0.9160
0.9250 0.9292
0.9423 0.9484
0.9593 0.9626
0.9744 0.9766
0.9921 0.9956
1.0000 1.0000
1.0052 1.0127
1.0249 1.0361
1.0373 1.0459
1.0413 1.0558
1.0543 1.0762
1.0588 1.0846
1.0596 1.0885
1.0791 1.1085
1.1008 1.1309
1.1229 1.1535
1.1453 1.1765
1.1682 1.2001
1.1916 1.2241
Projected Population Change in North Carolina Counties: 2
Total Population Population Change
County July 2020 Projection July 2030 Projection Numeric Percent
Alamance 167588 190524 22936 13.7
Alexander 38891 39822 931 2.4
Alleghany 11326 11634 308 2.7
Anson 25628 25627 -1 0
Ashe 27186 26853 -333 -1.2
Avery 18083 18083 0 0
Beaufort 47270 46380 -890 -1.9
Bertie 19831 19832 1 0
Bladen 33574 30842 -2732 -8.1
Brunswick 141520 171805 30285 21.4
Buncombe 270935 302284 31349 11.6
Burke 91767 96288 4521 4.9
Cabarrus 217409 258327 40918 18.8
Caldwell 85264 89689 4425 5.2
Camden 10505 10672 167 1.6
Carteret 71652 77380 5728 8
Caswell 23694 23695 1 0
Catawba 158374 163123 4749 3
Chatham 79480 94966 15486 19.5
Cherokee 30967 34330 3363 10.9
Chowan 13944 12778 -1166 -8.4
Clay 11987 13650 1663 13.9
Cleveland 99285 100067 782 0.8
Columbus 56903 56904 1 0
Craven 103899 104085 186 0.2
Cumberland 329709 329760 51 0
Currituck 28118 33158 5040 17.9
Dare 37851 40069 2218 5.9
Davidson 170091 180032 9941 5.8
Davie 44281 49459 5178 11.7
Duplin 59323 58865 -458 -0.8
Durham 320173 366803 46630 14.6
Edgecombe 50730 43645 -7085 -14
Forsyth 383913 423244 39331 10.2
Franklin 69729 80427 10698 15.3
Gaston 224197 240357 16160 7.2
Gates 12057 12096 39 0.3
Natural Increase
Births Deaths Natural Increase Net Migration
16155 16734 -579 16634
2937 4105 -1168 1515
885 1252 -367 587
1594 2593 -999 999
1765 3111 -1346 1126
977 1890 -913 913
3269 5421 -2152 1527
1232 2046 -814 815
2407 3031 -624 -1291
9801 21333 -11532 32730
20298 27110 -6812 28755
6972 9746 -2774 5938
24924 18788 6136 22577
6630 9143 -2513 5694
749 921 -172 195
4741 8425 -3684 7727
1520 2610 -1090 1090
13756 15513 -1757 5081
6342 10109 -3767 14606
2067 4280 -2213 3294
943 1386 -443 -373
825 1624 -799 1961
7931 10357 -2426 2529
4500 5880 -1380 1380
10782 8012 2770 -2746
29131 23693 5438 -5434
2479 2931 -452 3981
2775 3842 -1067 1883
14329 17150 -2821 9775
3622 4967 -1345 4970
5702 4629 1073 -1277
38119 22721 15398 17244
2768 5051 -2283 -2681
38648 32927 5721 21973
6423 7224 -801 8291
20005 21706 -1701 13732