Lecture 5

Statisticians use the word experiment to describe any process that generates a set of data. A simple
example of a statistical experiment is the tossing of a coin. In this experiment, there are only two possible
outcomes, heads or tails.
We are particularly interested in the observations obtained by repeating the experiment several times. In most
cases, the outcomes will depend on chance and, therefore, cannot be predicted with certainty. Even when a coin is
tossed repeatedly, we cannot be certain that a given toss will result in a head. However, we know the entire set of
possibilities for each toss.

Random Experiment: An experiment whose results can’t be predicted with certainty (or that can result in
different outcomes, even though it is repeated in the same manner every time), is called a
random experiment.
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample space of the
experiment. The sample space is denoted as S.

sample point: Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample space, or simply a
sample point. If the sample space has a finite number of elements, we may list the members separated by commas
and enclosed in braces.
Thus, the sample space S, of possible outcomes when a coin is flipped, may be written S = {H, T}, where H and T
correspond to heads and tails, respectively.

Example 5.1: Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are interested in the number that shows on the top
face, the sample space is S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
If we are interested only in whether the number is even or odd, the sample space is simply S2 = {even, odd}.
This illustrates the fact that more than one sample space can be used to describe the outcomes of an experiment.

Sample spaces can also be described graphically with tree diagrams. When a sample space can be constructed in
several steps or stages, we can represent each of the n1 ways of completing the first step as a branch of a tree. Each
of the ways of completing the second step can be represented as n2 branches starting from the ends of the original
branches, and so forth.

Example 5.2: An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then

flipping it a second time if a head occurs. If a tail
occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed once. To
list the elements of the sample space providing the
most information, we construct the tree diagram of
the opposite figure. The various paths along the
branches of the tree give the distinct sample points.
Starting with the top left branch and moving to the
right along the first path, we get the sample point
HH, indicating the possibility that heads occurs on
two successive flips of the coin. Likewise, the
sample point T3 indicates the possibility that the
coin will show a tail followed by a 3 on the toss of
the die. By proceeding along all paths, we see that
the sample space is S = {HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}.
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Example 5.3: Suppose that three items are selected at random
from a manufacturing process. Each item is
inspected and classified defective, D, or
nondefective, N. To list the elements of the
sample space providing the most information,
we construct the tree diagram of the following
figure. Now, the various paths along the
branches of the tree give the distinct sample
points. Starting with the first path, we get the
sample point DDD, indicating the possibility
that all three items inspected are defective. As
we proceed along the other paths, we see that the
sample space is S = {DDD, DDN, DND, DNN,
NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}.

Sample spaces with a large or infinite number of sample points are best described by a statement or rule method.

For example, if the possible outcomes of an experiment are the set of cities in the world with a population over 1
million, our sample space is written S = {x | x is a city with a population over 1 million.” Similarly, if S is the set of
all points (x, y) on the boundary or the interior of a circle of radius 2 with center at the origin, we write the rule S =
{(x, y) | x2 + y2 ≤ 4}.

Whether we describe the sample space by the rule method or by listing the elements will depend on the specific
problem at hand. The rule method has practical advantages, particularly for many experiments where listing
becomes a tedious chore.
Consider the situation of Example 5.3 in which items from a manufacturing process are either D, defective, or N,
nondefective. There are many important statistical procedures called sampling plans that determine whether or not
a “lot” of items is considered satisfactory. One such plan involves sampling until k defectives are observed.
Suppose the experiment is to sample items randomly until one defective item is observed. The sample space for
this case is S = {D,ND,NND,NNND, . . . }.

Event: An event is a subset of the sample space of a random experiment.

Example 5.4: Given the sample space S = {t | t ≥ 0}, where t is the life in years of a certain electronic component,
then the event A that the component fails before the end of the fifth year is the subset A = {t | 0 ≤ t
< 5}.
It is conceivable that an event may be a subset that includes the entire sample space S or a subset of S called the
null set and denoted by the symbol φ, which contains no elements at all. For instance, if we let A be the event of
detecting a microscopic organism by the naked eye in a biological experiment, then A = φ.
Also, if B = {x | x is an even factor of 7}, then B must be the null set, since the only possible factors of 7 are the
odd numbers 1 and 7.

We can also be interested in describing new events from combinations of existing events.
Because events are subsets, we can use basic set operations such as complements, intersections, and unions to form
other events of interest. Some of the basic set operations are summarized here in terms of events:

1. The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all elements of S that are not in A. We
denote the complement of A by the symbol A′ or AC.

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Example 5.5: Let R be the event that a red card is selected from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, and let S be
the entire deck. Then R′ is the event that the card selected from the deck is not a red card but a
black card.

Example 5.6: Consider the sample space

S = {book, paper, cell phone, mp3, stationery, laptop}.
Let A = {book, stationery, laptop, paper}. Then the complement of A is A′ = {cell phone, mp3}.

We now consider certain operations with events that will result in the formation of new events. These new
events will be subsets of the same sample space as the given events. Suppose that A and B are two events
associated with an experiment. In other words, A and B are subsets of the same sample space S. For example, in the
tossing of a die we might let A be the event that an even number occurs and B the event that a number greater than
3 shows. Then the subsets A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {4, 5, 6} are subsets of the same sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6}.
Note that both A and B will occur on a given toss if the outcome is an element of the subset {4, 6}, which is just
the intersection of A and B.

2. The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ∩ B, is the event containing all elements
that are common to A and B.

Example 5.7: Let E be the event that a person selected at random in a classroom is majoring in engineering, and
let F be the event that the person is female. Then E ∩ F is the event of all female engineering
students in the classroom.

Example 5.8: Let V = {a, e, i, o, u} and C = {l, r, s, t}; then it follows that V ∩ C = φ. That is, V and C have no
elements in common and, therefore, cannot both simultaneously occur.

For certain statistical experiments it is by no means unusual to define two events, A and B, that cannot both occur
simultaneously. The events A and B are then said to be mutually exclusive. Stated more formally, we have the
following definition:

Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if A ∩ B = φ, that is, if A
and B have no elements in common.

3. The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ⋃B, is the event containing all the elements
that belong to A or B or both.

Example 5.9: Let A = {a, b, c} and B = {b, c, d, e}; then A ⋃ B = {a, b, c, d, e}.

Example 5.10: Let P be the event that an employee selected at random from an oil drilling company smokes
cigarettes. Let Q be the event that the employee selected drinks alcoholic beverages. Then the
event P ⋃ Q is the set of all employees who either drink or smoke or do both.

Example 5.11: If M = {x | 3 < x < 9} and N = {y | 5 < y < 12}, then

M ⋃ N = {z | 3 < z < 12}.

PHM111s - Probability and Statistics

The relationship between events and the corresponding
sample space can be illustrated graphically by means of
Venn diagrams. In a Venn diagram we let the sample
space be a rectangle and represent events by circles drawn
inside the rectangle. Thus, in the opposite figure, we see
that
A ∩ B = regions 1 and 2,
B ∩ C = regions 1 and 3,
A ⋃ C = regions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7,
B′ ∩ A = regions 4 and 7,
A ∩ B ∩ C = region 1,
(A ⋃ B) ∩ C ′ = regions 2, 6, and 7,
and so forth.

In opposite figure, we see that events A, B, and C are all

subsets of the sample space S. It is also clear that event B
is a subset of event A; event B ∩ C has no elements and
hence B and C are mutually exclusive; event A ∩ C has at
least one element; and event A ⋃ B = A. the figure might,
therefore, depict a situation where we select a card at
random from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards and
observe whether the following events occur:
A: the card is red,
B: the card is the jack, queen, or king of diamonds,
C: the card is an ace.
Clearly, the event A ∩ C consists of only the two red aces.
Several results that follow from the foregoing definitions,
which may easily be verified by means of Venn diagrams,
are as follows:
1. A ∩ φ = φ.
2. A ⋃ φ = A.
3. A ∩ A′ = φ.
4. A ⋃ A′ = S.
5. S ′ = φ.
6. ϕ ′ = S.
7. ( A′ )′ = A.
8. ( A  B )′ = A′ ⋃ B′ .
9. ( A  B )′ = A′ ∩ B′ .

PHM111s - Probability and Statistics

Counting Sample Points

Rule 1: If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these ways a second operation can be
performed in n2 ways, then the two operations can be performed together in n1n2 ways.

Example 5.12: How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of dice is thrown once?
Solution: The first die can land face-up in any one of n1 = 6 ways. For each of these 6 ways, the second die can
also land face-up in n2 = 6 ways. Therefore, the pair of dice can land in n1n2 = (6)(6) = 36 possible
ways.

Example 5.13: How many ways are there to choose a male student out of three students (Ashraf – Mohamed –
Hassan) and a female student out of two students (Samar – Mona)?
Solution: Since the number of ways of choosing a male student out of three students (n1) = 3 ways and the
number of ways of choosing a female student out of two students (n2) = 2 ways, then the number of
ways of choosing is n1n2 = (3)(2) = 6 ways.
The answer can be verified by constructing tree diagram and counting the various paths along the
branches:
There will be n1 = 3 branches corresponding to the different male students, and then there will be n2 = 2
branches extending from each of these 3 branches to represent the different female students. This tree
diagram yields the n1n2 = 6 choices given by the paths along the branches, as illustrated in the figure.

Male students Female students Choices

Ashraf, Samar

Ashraf, Mona

Mohamed, Samar
Mohamed
Mohamed, Mona

Hassan, Samar

Hassan, Mona

Rule 2: If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be performed
in n2 ways, and for each of the first two a third operation can be performed in n3 ways, and so forth, then
the sequence of k operations can be performed in n1n2n3 · · · nk ways.

Example 5.14: Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of chips from two brands, a
hard drive from four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle from five local stores. How
many different ways can Sam order the parts?
Solution: Since n1 = 2, n2 = 4, n3 = 3, and n4 = 5, there are nl × n2 × n3 × n4 = 2× 4 × 3 × 5 = 120 different ways
to order the parts.
PHM111s - Probability and Statistics
Example 5.15: How many even four-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, and 9 if each digit
can be used only once?
Solution: Since the number must be even, we have only n1 = 3 choices for the units position. However, for a four-
digit number the thousands position cannot be 0. Hence, we consider the units position in two parts, 0
or not 0.
• If the units position is 0 (i.e., n1 = 1), we have n2 = 5 choices for the thousands position, n3 = 4 for the
hundreds position, and n4 = 3 for the tens position. Therefore, in this case we have a total of
n1n2n3n4 = (1)(5)(4)(3) = 60
even four-digit numbers.
• On the other hand, if the units position is not 0 (i.e., n1 = 2), we have n2 = 4 choices for the thousands
position, n3 = 4 for the hundreds position, and n4 = 3 for the tens position. In this situation, there are a total
of
n1n2n3n4 = (2)(4)(4)(3) = 96
even four-digit numbers.
Since the above two cases are mutually exclusive, the total number of even four-digit numbers can be calculated as
60 + 96 = 156.

Permutations:

Definition: A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.

Consider the three letters a, b, and c. The possible permutations are abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, and cba. Thus, we see
that there are 6 distinct arrangements. Using Rule 2, we could arrive at the answer 6 without actually listing the
different orders by the following arguments: There are n1 = 3 choices for the first position.
No matter which letter is chosen, there are always n2 = 2 choices for the second position. No matter which two
letters are chosen for the first two positions, there is only n3 = 1 choice for the last position, giving a total of
n1n2n3 = (3)(2)(1) = 6 permutations
by Rule 2. In general, n distinct objects can be arranged in
n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · (3)(2)(1) ways.

Theorem: The number of permutations of n objects is n!.

The number of permutations of the four letters a, b, c, and d will be 4! = 24.

Now consider the number of permutations that are possible by taking two letters at a time from four. These would
be ab, ac, ad, ba, bc, bd, ca, cb, cd, da, db, and dc. Using Rule 1 again, we have two positions to fill, with n1 = 4
choices for the first and then n2 = 3 choices for the second, for a total of
n1n2 = (4)(3) = 12
permutations. In general, n distinct objects taken r at a time can be arranged in
n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · (n − r + 1)
ways. We represent this product by the symbol
n!
n
Pr =
(n − r )!
Theorem: The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is
n!
n
Pr =
(n − r )!

PHM111s - Probability and Statistics

Example 5.16: How many ways can three letters be formed from the four letters a, b, c, and d?
Solution: The total number of ways is
4! 4!
4
P= = = (4)(3)(2)(1)
= 24 .
(4 − 3)! 1!
3

Example 5.17: Ten students have appeared in a test in which the top three will get a prize. How many possible
ways are there to get the prize winners?

Solution: We need to choose and arrange 3 persons out of 10. Hence, the number of possible ways will be
10! 10!
P3
=
10
= = (10)(9)(8)
= 720
(10 − 3)! 7!

Combinations:
Now consider the number of permutations that are possible by taking two letters at a time from four. These would
be ab, ac, ad, ba, bc, bd, ca, cb, cd, da, db, and dc.
From the previous data, we notice that selecting ab is different from selecting ba and so on…
If we want to select from the previous disregarding the order, the all possible choices are: ab, ac, ad, bc, bd and cd
and each choice of these choices is called “Combination”

Theorem: The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

 n n!
n
Cr ≡   = .
r
  r !( n − r )!

Example 5.18: A young boy asks his mother to get 5 Game-Boy cartridges from his collection of 10 arcade and 5
sports games. How many ways are there that his mother can get 3 arcade and 2 sports games?

Solution: The number of ways of selecting 3 cartridges from 10 is

 10  10!
 3  = 120
=
  3!(10 − 3)!
The number of ways of selecting 2 cartridges from 5 is
 5 5!
= 2  = 10
  2!(5 − 2)!
Using the multiplication rule (Rule 1) with n1 = 120 and n2 = 10, we have (120)(10) = 1200 ways.

Example 5.19: How many ways can three letters be formed from the four letters a, b, c, and d disregarding the
order?

Solution: The total number of ways is

 4 4! 4!
C3 =
=
4
 = = (4) .
 3  3!(4 − 3)! 3!1!
Example 5.20: From a group of 5 women and 7 men, how many different committees consisting of 2 women and
3 men can be formed?

PHM111s - Probability and Statistics

  5 5!
C2 =
Solution: There are =
5
 = 10 possible groups of 2 women, and
 2 2!(5 − 2)!
 7 7!
=
7
C3 =  = 35 possible groups of 3 men, it follows from the basic principle that there
 3  3!(7 − 3)!
 5  7 
are    = 350 possible committees consisting of 2 women and 3 men.
 2  3 
.

PHM111s - Probability and Statistics