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    Portfolio Management: Lecturer: Th.S. Le Phuoc Thanh (NCS)

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    Eli Zabeth
    This document provides an overview of portfolio management and investment concepts. It discusses key topics such as: - Why individuals invest and definitions of investment and rate of return. - Methods of measuring historical and expected rates of return, including holding period return, arithmetic and geometric means. - Factors that determine required rates of return, such as time value of money, inflation, and risk. - Different types of risk including business, financial, liquidity, exchange rate, and country risk. - Relationship between risk and return as depicted by the security market line. - How changes in market conditions and inflation can impact the security market line.

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Portfolio Management: Lecturer: Th.S. Le Phuoc Thanh (NCS)

    Uploaded by

    Eli Zabeth
    71 views47 pages
    This document provides an overview of portfolio management and investment concepts. It discusses key topics such as: - Why individuals invest and definitions of investment and rate of return. - Methods of measuring historical and expected rates of return, including holding period return, arithmetic and geometric means. - Factors that determine required rates of return, such as time value of money, inflation, and risk. - Different types of risk including business, financial, liquidity, exchange rate, and country risk. - Relationship between risk and return as depicted by the security market line. - How changes in market conditions and inflation can impact the security market line.

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    Lec1-ch01

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    This document provides an overview of portfolio management and investment concepts. It discusses key topics such as: - Why individuals invest and definitions of investment and rate of return. - Methods of measuring historical and expected rates of return, including holding period return, arithmetic and geometric means. - Factors that determine required rates of return, such as time value of money, inflation, and risk. - Different types of risk including business, financial, liquidity, exchange rate, and country risk. - Relationship between risk and return as depicted by the security market line. - How changes in market conditions and inflation can impact the security market line.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    71 views47 pages

    Portfolio Management: Lecturer: Th.S. Le Phuoc Thanh (NCS)

    Uploaded by

    Eli Zabeth
    This document provides an overview of portfolio management and investment concepts. It discusses key topics such as: - Why individuals invest and definitions of investment and rate of return. - Methods of measuring historical and expected rates of return, including holding period return, arithmetic and geometric means. - Factors that determine required rates of return, such as time value of money, inflation, and risk. - Different types of risk including business, financial, liquidity, exchange rate, and country risk. - Relationship between risk and return as depicted by the security market line. - How changes in market conditions and inflation can impact the security market line.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 47
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    The key takeaways are that individuals invest to trade off present consumption for future consumption, and that various factors like risk, inflation, and opportunity costs contribute to determining the rates of return required by investors.

    Some factors that contribute to the rates of return that investors require on alternative investments include the cost of money in terms of production opportunity, risk, consumption, and expected inflation.

    Individuals measure the rate of return on an investment by considering the pure rate of interest as the exchange rate between future and present consumption, as well as factors like inflation, risk, and time value of money.

    Portfolio Management

    Lecturer: Th.S. Le Phuoc Thanh (NCS)

    Chapter 1 The Investment Setting


    Questions to be answered: Why do individuals invest ? What is an investment ? How do we measure the rate of return on an investment ? How do investors measure risk related to alternative investments ?

    Chapter 1 The Investment Setting


    What factors contribute to the rates of return that investors require on alternative investments ? Cost of money (production opportunity, risk, consumption, expected inflation) What macroeconomic and microeconomic factors contribute to changes in the required rate of return for individual investments and investments in general ?

    Why Do Individuals Invest ?


    By saving money (instead of spending it), individuals tradeoff present consumption for a larger future consumption.

    How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ?


    The pure rate of interest is the exchange rate between future consumption and present consumption. Market forces determine this rate.

    $1.00 + 4% = $1.04

    How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ?


    Peoples willingness to pay the difference for borrowing today and their desire to receive a surplus on their savings give rise to an interest rate referred to as the pure time value of money.

    How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ?


    If the future payment will be diminished in value because of inflation, then the investor will demand an interest rate higher than the pure time value of money to also cover the expected inflation expense.

    How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ?


    If the future payment from the investment is not certain, the investor will demand an interest rate that exceeds the pure time value of money plus the inflation rate to provide a risk premium to cover the investment risk.

    Defining an Investment
    A current commitment of $ for a period of time in order to derive future payments that will compensate for:
    the time the funds are committed the expected rate of inflation uncertainty of future flow of funds.

    Measures of Historical Rates of Return


    Holding Period Return
    1.1

    Ending Value of Investment HPR = Beginning Value of Investment $220 = = 1.10 $200

    Measures of Historical Rates of Return


    1.2

    Holding Period Yield HPY = HPR - 1 1.10 - 1 = 0.10 = 10%

    Measures of Historical Rates of Return


    Annual Holding Period Return Annual HPR = HPR 1/n
    where n = number of years investment is held

    Annual Holding Period Yield Annual HPY = Annual HPR - 1

    Measures of Historical Rates of Return


    1.4

    Arithmetic Mean
    where : AM = HPY/n

    HPY = the sum of annual

    holding period yields

    Measures of Historical Rates of Return


    1.5

    Geometric Mean
    GM = [ HPR ] where :
    1 n

    = the product of the annual


    holding period returns as follows :

    (HPR 1 ) (HPR 2 )K (HPR n )

    A Portfolio of Investments
    The mean historical rate of return for a portfolio of investments is measured as the weighted average of the HPYs for the individual investments in the portfolio.

    Computation of Holding Exhibit 1.1 Period Yield for a Portfolio


    # Stock Shares A 100,000 B 200,000 C 500,000 Total Begin Price $ 10 $ 20 $ 30 Beginning Ending Ending Market Mkt. Value Price Mkt. Value HPR HPY Wt. $ 1,000,000 $ 12 $ 1,200,000 1.20 20% 0.05 $ 4,000,000 $ 21 $ 4,200,000 1.05 5% 0.20 $ 15,000,000 $ 33 $ 16,500,000 1.10 10% 0.75 $ 20,000,000 $ 21,900,000 $ 21,900,000 $ 20,000,000 -1 = 1.095 Wtd. HPY 0.010 0.010 0.075 0.095

    HPR =

    HPY =

    1.095

    = =

    0.095 9.5%

    Expected Rates of Return


    Risk is uncertainty that an investment will earn its expected rate of return Probability is the likelihood of an outcome

    Expected Rates of Return


    Expected Return = E(R i )
    1.6

    (Probabilit y of Return) (Possible Return)


    i =1

    [(P1 )(R 1 ) + (P2 )(R 2 ) + .... + (Pn R n )

    (P )(R )
    i =1 i i

    Risk Aversion
    The assumption that most investors will choose the least risky alternative, all else being equal and that they will not accept additional risk unless they are compensated in the form of higher return

    Probability Distributions
    Exhibit 1.2

    Risk-free Investment
    1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10% 15%

    Probability Distributions
    Exhibit 1.3

    Risky Investment with 3 Possible Returns


    1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00

    -30%

    -10%

    10%

    30%

    Probability Distributions
    Exhibit 1.4

    Risky investment with ten possible rates of return

    1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 -40% -20% 0%

    20% 40%

    Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return


    Variance( ) =
    (Probability) (Possible Return - Expected Return)2
    i =1 n

    1.7

    (Pi )[R i E(R i )]


    i =1

    Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return


    Standard Deviation is the square root of the variance

    1.8

    Pi [R i - E(R i )]
    i =1

    Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return


    Coefficient of variation (CV) a measure of relative variability that indicates risk per unit of return Standard Deviation of Returns Expected Rate of Returns

    1.9

    E(R)

    Measuring the Risk of Historical Rates of Return

    1.10

    = [HPYi E (HPY)
    2

    2/n

    2 =
    HPY i = E(HPY) = n=

    i =1 variance of the series holding period yield during period I expected value of the HPY that is equal to the arithmetic mean of the series the number of observations

    Determinants of Required Rates of Return


    Time value of money Expected rate of inflation Risk involved

    The Real Risk Free Rate (RRFR)


    Assumes no inflation. Assumes no uncertainty about future cash flows. Influenced by time preference for consumption of income and investment opportunities in the economy

    Adjusting For Inflation


    Real RFR =

    1.12

    (1 + Nominal RFR) 1 (1 + Rate of Inflation)

    Nominal Risk-Free Rate


    Dependent upon
    Conditions in the Capital Markets Expected Rate of Inflation

    Adjusting For Inflation


    Nominal RFR =

    1.11

    (1+Real RFR) x (1+Expected Rate of Inflation) - 1

    Facets of Fundamental Risk


    Business risk Financial risk Liquidity risk Exchange rate risk Country risk

    Business Risk
    Uncertainty of income flows caused by the nature of a firms business Sales volatility and operating leverage determine the level of business risk.

    Financial Risk
    Uncertainty caused by the use of debt financing. Borrowing requires fixed payments which must be paid ahead of payments to stockholders. The use of debt increases uncertainty of stockholder income and causes an increase in the stocks risk premium.

    Liquidity Risk
    Uncertainty is introduced by the secondary market for an investment.
    How long will it take to convert an investment into cash? How certain is the price that will be received?

    Exchange Rate Risk


    Uncertainty of return is introduced by acquiring securities denominated in a currency different from that of the investor. Changes in exchange rates affect the investors return when converting an investment back into the home currency.

    Country Risk
    Political risk is the uncertainty of returns caused by the possibility of a major change in the political or economic environment in a country. Individuals who invest in countries that have unstable political-economic systems must include a country risk-premium when determining their required rate of return

    Risk Premium
    f (Business Risk, Financial Risk, Liquidity Risk, Exchange Rate Risk, Country Risk)

    or
    f (Systematic Market Risk)

    Risk Premium and Portfolio Theory


    The relevant risk measure for an individual asset is its co-movement with the market portfolio Systematic risk relates the variance of the investment to the variance of the market Beta measures this systematic risk of an asset

    Fundamental Risk versus Systematic Risk


    Fundamental risk comprises business risk, financial risk, liquidity risk, exchange rate risk, and country risk Systematic risk refers to the portion of an individual assets total variance attributable to the variability of the total market portfolio

    Relationship Between Risk and Return Exhibit 1.7


    Rateof Return (Expected)

    Low Risk

    Average Risk

    High Risk

    Security Market Line

    RFR

    The slope indicates the required return per unit of risk

    Risk (business risk, etc., or systematic risk-beta)

    Changes in the Required Rate of Return Due to Movements Along the SML
    Expected Rate
    Exhibit 1.8

    Security Market Line

    RFR

    Movements along the curve that reflect changes in the risk of the asset
    Risk (business risk, etc., or systematic risk-beta)

    Changes in the Slope of the SML


    1.13

    RPi = E(Ri)- NRFR


    where: RPi = risk premium for asset i E(Ri) = the expected return for asset i NRFR = the nominal return on a risk-free asset

    Market Portfolio Risk

    1.14

    The market risk premium for the market portfolio (contains all the risky assets in the market) can be computed: RPm = E(Rm)- NRFR where: RPm = risk premium on the market portfolio E(Rm) = expected return on the market portfolio NRFR = expected return on a risk-free asset

    Change in Market Risk Premium


    Exhibit 1.10 Expected Return E(R)

    New SML

    Rm' Rm
    Rm Rm NRFR RFR

    Original SML

    Risk

    Capital Market Conditions, Expected Inflation, and the SML


    Exhibit 1.11 Expected Return Rate of Return

    New SML Original SML RFR' NRFR


    NRFR RFR

    Risk

    THANK YOU

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