CRIME PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS USING MACHINE LEARNING

at

Sathyabama Institute of Science and Technology

(Deemed to be University)

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of

Bachelor of Engineering Degree in Computer Science and Engineering

By

K.VENKATA NAGA SAI

(Reg.No.38110252)
K.SAI TARUN KUMAR
(Reg.No. 38110278)

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

SCHOOL OF COMPUTING

SATHYABAMA INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY JEPPIAAR NAGAR,

RAJIV GANDHI SALAI,CHENNAI – 600119, TAMIL NADU

MARCH 2022

1
 SATHYABAMA
INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

(DEEMED TO BE UNIVERSITY)

Accredited with Grade “A” by NAAC

(Established under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956)
JEPPIAAR NAGAR, RAJIV GANDHI SALAI, CHENNAI– 600119
www.sathyabamauniversity.ac.in

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE

This to certify that this Project Report is the bonafide work of K.VENKATA
NAGA SAI (Reg. No: 38110252) and K.SAI TARUN KUMAR(Reg.No: 38110278) who
carried out the project entitled ―CRIME PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS USING
MACHINE LEARNING ‖ under my supervision from December 2021 to March 2022.

Internal Guide
Dr.A.Christy.. M.C.A.,Ph.D.,.

Head of the Department

Submitted for Viva voce Examination held on_______________________________

Internal Examiner External Examiner

2
 DECLARATION

I, K.VENKATA NAGA SAI hereby declare that the project report entitled ―CRIME
PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS USING MACHINE LEARNING” was done by me under
the guidance of Dr.A.Christy is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for
the award of Bachelor of Engineering Degree in Computer Science and Engineering.

DATE: 31/03/2022

PLACE: Chennai SIGNATURE OF THE CANDIDATE

3
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I am pleased to acknowledge my sincere thanks to the Board of Management of

Sathyabama for their kind encouragement in doing this project and for completing it
successfully. I am grateful to them.

I convey my thanks to Dr. T. Sasikala M.E., Ph.D, Dean, School of Computing,

Dr. L. Lakshmanan, M.E., Ph.D., and Dr. S. Vigneshwari, M.E., Ph.D. Heads of the
Department of Computer Science and Engineering for providing me necessary
support and details at the right time during the progressive reviews.

I would like to express my sincere and deep sense of gratitude to my Project Guide
Dr.A.Christy for his valuable guidance, suggestions and constant encouragement
paved the way for the successful completion of my project work.

I wish to express my thanks to all Teaching and Non-teaching staff members of the
Department of Computer Science and Engineering who were helpful in many ways
for the completion of the project.

4
 ABSTRACT

Crime analysis and prediction is a systematic approach for identifying the crime. This
system can predict regions which have high probability for crime occurrences and
visualize crime prone areas. Using the concept of data mining we can extract previously
unknown, useful information from unstructured data. The extraction of new information
is predicted using the existing datasets. Crimes are treacherous and common social
problems faced worldwide. Crimes affect the quality of life, economic growth and
reputation of a nation. With the aim of securing the society from crimes, there is a need
for advanced systems and new approaches for improving the crime analytics for
protecting their communities. Propose a system which can analyze, detect, and predict
various crime probability in a given region.Explains various types of criminal analysis
and crime prediction using several data mining techniques.

5
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER NO TITLE PAGE NO

Abstract 5

List of Figures 8

List of Tables 6

List of Abbreviation 9

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Outline of theProject 10

1.2 Objective 10

2 LITERATURE SURVEY

3 AIM AND SCOPE OF THE

PROJECT

3.1 Existing System 15

3.2 Proposed System 15

4 METHODOLOGY

4.1 Introduction To ML 17

4.2 Training The Data 17

4.2.1 Supervised Learning 18

4.2.2 Unsupervised Learning 18

4.3 Methods in Supervised 18

Learning

4.3.1 Classification 19

4.3.2 Regression 20

6
 4.4 System Architecture 20

4.5 KNN(K-Nearest Neighbors) 21

4.6 Decision Tree 22

4.7 Random Forest 22

4.8 Datasets 23

4.9 Data Manipulation 23

Packages

4.9.1 Pandas 23

4.9.2 Numpy 23

4.10 Modal Building Package 24

4.10.1 Scikit-Learn 24

4.10.2 Scikit-Plot 25

4.10.3 Matplotlib‘s Pyplot 25

4.11 Module Descriptions 26

4.12 Python 27

4.13 Data Mining 32

5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 37

6 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE 38

WORK

7 APPENDICES

A)Source Code 41

B) Screenshots 46
C) Publication With 51
Plagiarism Report

7
 LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE NO FIGURE NAME PAGE NO

4.1 Classification vs Regression 17

4.2 System Architecture 19

4.3 K-Nearest neighbors 19

4.4 Decision Tree 20

4.5 Random Forest 21

4.6 Activity Diagram 34

8
 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ABBREVIATION EXPANSION

CSS CASCADING STYLE SHEET

HTML HYPER TEXT MARKUP LANGUAGE

HTTP HYPERTEXT TRANSFER PROTOCOL

KNN K-NEAREST NEIGHBORS

URL UNIFORM RESOURCE LOCATOR

WWW WORLD WIDE WEB

9
 CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

1.1 OUTLINE OF THE PROJECT

Day by day crime data rate is increasing because the modern technologies and hi-tech
methods are helps the criminals to achieving the illegal activities .according to Crime
Record Bureau crimes like burglary, arson etc have been increased while crimes like
murder, sex, abuse, gang rap etc have been increased.crime data will be collected from
various blogs, news and websites. The huge data is used as a record for creating a
crime report database. The knowledge which is acquired from the data mining
techniques will help in reducing crimes as it helps in finding the culprits faster and also
the areas that are most affected by crime .

1.2 OBJECTIVE

This system gives the most trending technology-based skills used at the present. To
help police to detect the crime type based on location. Provides the user with the
technology he is saving a life and saves a lot of time. Html (Hypertext Markup
Language) and CSS (Cascading Style Sheet) are two of the core technologies for
building Web pages.

HTML provides the structure of the page, CSS the (virtual and aural) layout for a variety
of devices. Along with graphics and scripting HTML and CSS are the basis of building
Web pages and Web Applications. HTML gives authors the means to : Publish online
documents with headings, text, tables, lists, photos. Retrieve online information via
hypertext links, at the click of a button. Design forms for conducting transactions with
remote services, for use in searching for information etc. Include spreadsheets, video
10
clips, Sound clips and other applications directly in their documents. Flask is the most
popular framework of python for web development. It is free, open source and server-
side(the code is executed on the server).

Machine learning is a process that is widely used for prediction. N number of algorithms
are available in various libraries which can be used for prediction. In this article, we are
going to build a prediction model on historic data using different machine learning
algorithms and classifiers, plot the results and calculate the accuracy of the model on
the testing data. Building/Training a model using various algorithms on a large dataset
is one part of the data. But using these models within different applications is the
second part of deploying machine learning in the real world.To put it to use in order to
predict the new data, we have to deploy it over the internet so that the outside world can
use it. In this article, we will talk about how we have trained a machine learning model,
created a web application on it using Flask.

11
 CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE SURVEY

12
13
14
 CHAPTER 3
AIM AND SCOPE OF THE PROJECT

3.1 EXISTING SYSTEM

Data mining in the study and analysis of criminology can be categorized into main
areas, crime control and crime suppression. De Bruin et. al. introduced a framework for
crime trends using a new distance measure for comparing all individuals based on their
profiles and then clustering them accordingly. Manish Gupta et. al. highlights the
existing systems used by Indian police as e-governance initiatives and also proposes an
interactive query based interface as crime analysis tool to assist police in their activities.
He proposed an interface which is used to extract useful information from the vast crime
database maintained by National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB) and find crime hot
spots using crime data mining techniques such as clustering etc. The effectiveness of
the proposed interface has been illustrated on Indian crime records. Sutapat Thiprungsri
examines the application of cluster analysis in the accounting domain, particularly
discrepancy detection in audit. The purpose of his study is to examine the use of
clustering technology to automate fraud filtering during an audit. He used cluster
analysis to help auditors focus their efforts when evaluating group life insurance claims.

3.2 PROPOSED SYSTEM

In this project, we will be using the technique of machine learning and data science for
crime prediction of crime data sets. The crime data is extracted from the official portal of
police. It consists of crime information like location description, type of crime, date, time,
latitude, longitude. Before training the model data preprocessing will be done following
this feature selection and scaling will be done so that the accuracy obtained will be high.
The K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) classification and various other algorithms (Decision

15
Tree and Random Forest) will be tested for crime and propose one with better query-
based use for training. Visualization of the dataset will be done in terms of graphical
representation of many cases, for example at which time the crime rates are high or at
which month the criminal activities are high. The sole purpose of this project is to give a
just idea of how machine learning can be used by law enforcement agencies to detect,
predict andinolve crimes at a much faster rate and thus reduce the crime rate. This can
be used in other states or countries depending upon the availability of the dataset.

16
 CHAPTER 4

METHODOLOGY

4.1 INTRODUCTION TO MACHINE LEARNING

A comparative study was carried out between violent crime patterns from the
Communities and Crime Unnormalized Dataset versus actual crime statistical data
using the open source data mining software Waikato Environment for Knowledge
Analysis (WEKA). Three algorithms, namely, linear regression, additive regression, and
decision stump, were implemented using the same finite set of features on communities
and actual crime datasets. Test samples were randomly selected. The linear regression
algorithm could handle randomness to a certain extent in the test samples and thus
proved to be the best among all three selected algorithms. The scope of the project was
to prove the efficiency and accuracy of ML algorithms in predicting violent crime
patterns and other applications, such as determining criminal hotspots, creating criminal
profiles, and learning criminal trends.

When considering WEKA , the integration of a new graphical interface called

Knowledge Flow is possible, which can be used as a substitute for Internet Explorer. IT
provides a more concentrated view of data mining in association with the process
orientation, in which individual learning components (represented by java beans) are
used graphically to show a certain flow of information. The authors then describe
another graphical interface called an experimenter, which as the name suggests, is
designed to compare the performance of multiple learning schemes on multiple data
sets.

4.2 TRAINING THE DATA

17
There are basically two widely-used types of training that can be done to create a
model:
i. Supervised Learning
ii. Un-supervised Learning

4.2.1 SUPERVISED LEARNING

Supervised learning is the machine learning task of learning a function that maps an
input to an output based on example input-output pairs. It infers a function from labeled
training data consisting of a set of training examples. In supervised learning, each
example is a pair consisting of an input object (typically a vector) and a desired output
value (also called the supervisory signal). A supervised learning algorithm analyzes the
training data and produces an inferred function, which can be used for mapping new
examples. An optimal scenario will allow for the algorithm to correctly determine the
class labels for unseen instances. This requires the learning algorithm to generalize
from the training data to unseen situations in a "reasonable" way.

4.2.2 UNSUPERVISED LEARNING

Unsupervised machine learning is the machine learning task of inferring a function that
describes the structure of "unlabeled" data (i.e., data that has not been classified or
categorized). Since the examples given to the learning algorithm are unlabeled, there is
no straightforward way to evaluate the accuracy of the structure that is produced by the
algorithm—one feature that distinguishes unsupervised learning from supervised
learning and reinforcement learning.The type of training used in this model is
SUPERVISED LEARNING.

4.3 METHODS IN SUPERVISED LEARNING

Supervised Learning mainly consists of two methods,

● Classification

18
 ● Regression

Fig 4.1 Classification vs Regression

4.3.1 CLASSIFICATION

In machine learning, classification(Fig 4.1) is the problem of identifying to which of a set

of categories (sub-populations) a new observation belongs, on the basis of a training set
of data containing observations (or instances) whose category membership is known.
Examples are assigning a given email to the "spam" or "non-spam" class,and assigning
a diagnosis to a given patient based on observed characteristics of the patient (gender,
blood pressure, presence or absence of certain symptoms, etc.). Classification(Fig 4.1)
is an example of pattern recognition. An algorithm that implements classification(Fig
4.1), especially in a concrete implementation, is known as a classifier. The
corresponding unsupervised procedure is known as clustering, and involves grouping
data into categories based on some measure of inherent similarity or distance.

19
4.3.2 REGRESSION
Regression(Fig 4.1) analysis estimates the conditional expectation of the dependent
variable given the independent variables – that is, the average value of the dependent
variable when the independent variables are fixed. Less commonly, the focus is on a
quantile, or other location parameter of the conditional distribution of the dependent
variable given the independent variables. In all cases, a function of the independent
variables called the regression(Fig 4.1) function is to be estimated. Regression(Fig 4.1)
analysis is widely used for prediction and forecasting. It is also used to understand
which among the independent variables are related to the dependent variable, and to
explore the forms of these relationships. In restricted circumstances, regression(Fig 4.1)
analysis can be used to infer causal relationships between the independent and
dependent variables. However, this can lead to illusions or false relationships, so
caution is advisable; for example, correlation does not prove causation. The type used
in this model is CLASSIFICATION(Fig 4.1) and so, more focus will be given on it.

4.4 SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE

The system architectural design(Fig 4.2) is the design process for identifying the
subsystems making up the system and framework for subsystem control and
communication. The goal of the architectural design is to establish the overall structure
of the software system.

20
 Fig 4.2 System Architecture

4.5 KNN (K-Nearest neighbors) A powerful classification algorithm used in pattern

recognition K nearest neighbors(Fig 4.3) stores all available cases and classifies new
cases based on a similarity measure (e.g distance function).One of the top data mining
algorithms used today. A non-parametric lazy learning algorithm (An Instance based
Learning method). KNN: Classification Approach ● An object (a new instance) is
classified by a majority vote for its neighbor classes. ● The object is assigned to the
most common class amongst its K nearest neighbors(Fig 4.3). measured by distance
function).

Fig 4.3 K-Nearest neighbors

21
4.6 DECISION TREE

As the name says all about it, it is a tree which helps us by assisting us in decision
making. Used for both classification and regression, it is a very basic and important
predictive learning algorithm.
• It is different from others because it works intuitively i.e., taking decisions one-by-one.
• Non-parametric: Fast and efficient.
• It consists of nodes which have parent-child relationship

Fig 4.4 Decision Tree

Decision tree(Fig 4.4) considers the most important variable using some fancy criterion
and splits the dataset based on it. It is done to reach a stage where we have
homogenous subsets that are giving predictions with utmost surety.

4.7 RANDOM FOREST

Random Forests(Fig 4.5) is a very popular ensemble learning method which builds a

22
number of classifiers on the training data and combines all their outputs to make the

best predictions on the test data. Thus, the Random Forests(Fig 4.5) algorithm is a

variance minimizing algorithm that uses randomness when making split decisions to

help avoid overfitting on the training data. A random forests(Fig 4.5) classifier is an

ensemble classifier, which aggregates a family of classifiers h(x|θ1),h(x|θ2),..h(x|θk).

Each member of the family, h(x|θ), is a classification tree and k is the number of trees

chosen from a model random vector. Also, each θk is a randomly chosen parameter

vector. If D(x,y) denotes the training dataset, each classification tree in the ensemble is

built using a different subset Dθk(x,y) ⊂ D(x,y) of the training dataset.

Fig 4.5 Random Forest

Thus, h(x|θk) is the kth classification tree which uses a subset of features xθk ⊂ x to

build a classification model. Each tree then works like regular decision trees: it partitions

the data based on the value of a particular feature (which is selected randomly from the

subset), until the data is fully partitioned, or the maximum allowed depth is reached. The

final output y is obtained by aggregating the results thus: where I denote the indicator

function.

23
4.8 DATASETS

The dataset used for this experiment is real and authentic. The dataset is acquired from
UCI machine learning repository website. The title of the dataset is ‗Crime and
Communities‘. It is prepared using real data from socio-economic data from the 1990
US Census, law

enforcement data from the 1990 US LEMAS survey, and crime data from the 1995 FBI
UCR. This dataset contains a total number of 9 attributes and 1994 instances. All data
provided in this dataset is numeric and normalized. Crime dataset Dimensions: 9 x 2091
Attributes: 9 Names of attributes: timestamp, act379, act13, act279, act323, act363,
act302, latitude, longitude.

4.9 DATA MANIPULATION PACKAGES

4.9.1 Pandas

Pandas is a Python package providing fast, flexible, and expressive data structures
designed to make working with structured (tabular, multidimensional, potentially
heterogeneous) and time series data both easy and intuitive. It aims to be the
fundamental high-level building block for doing practical, real world data analysis in
Python. Additionally, it has the broader goal of becoming the most powerful and flexible
open-source data analysis / manipulation tool available in any language. It is already
well on its way toward this goal.

4.9.2 NumPy

NumPy is a library for Python, adding support for large, multidimensional arrays and
matrices, along with a large collection of high-level mathematical functions to operate on
these arrays. NumPy is an open-source software and has many contributors. In
comparison, MATLAB boasts a large number of additional toolboxes, notably Simulink,
whereas NumPy is intrinsically integrated with Python, a more modern and complete
programming language. Moreover, complementary Python packages are available;
24
SciPy is a library that adds more MATLAB-like functionality and Matplotlib is a plotting
package that provides MATLAB-like plotting functionality.

4.10 MODAL BUILDING PACKAGE

4.10.1 Scikit-learn

Scikit-learn (formerly scikits. learn) is a free software machine learning library for the
Python programming language. It features various classification, regression and
clustering algorithms including support vector machines(svm), random forest, gradient
boosting, k means and DBSCAN, and is designed to interoperate with the Python
numerical and scientific libraries NumPy and SciPy. It has been built on top of NumPy,
SciPy and matplotlib.

4.10.2 Scikit-plot

Scikit-plot is the result of an unartistic data scientist‘s dreadful realization that

visualization is one of the most crucial components in the data science process, not just
a mere afterthought. Gaining insights is simply a lot easier when you‘re looking at a
colored heatmap of a confusion matrix complete with class labels rather than a single-
line dump of numbers enclosed in brackets. Besides, if you ever need to present your
results to someone 15 (virtually any time anybody hires you to do data science), you
show them visualizations, not a bunch of numbers in Excel.All in all, it is an intuitive
library used to add plotting functionality to a scikit-learn object.

4.10.3 Matplotlib’s pyplot

Matplotlib is a Python 2D plotting library which produces publication quality figures in a

25
variety of hardcopy formats and interactive environments across platforms. Matplotlib
can be used in Python scripts, the Python and IPython shells, the Jupyter notebook,
web application servers, and four graphical user interface toolkits.

It provides an object-oriented API for embedding plots into applications using general-
purpose GUI toolkits like Tkinter, wxPython, Qt or GTK.matplotlib. Pyplot provides a
MATLAB-like plotting framework pylab combines pyplot with NumPy into a single
namespace. This is convenient for interactive work, but for programming it is
recommended that the namespaces be kept separate.

4.11 MODULE DESCRIPTIONS

4.11.1 Data collection Module

Crime dataset from kaggle is used in CSV format.

4.11.2 Data Preprocessing Module

10k entries are present in the dataset. The null values are removed using df =
df.dropna() where df is the data frame. The categorical attributes (Location, Block,
Crime Type, Community Area) are converted into numeric using Label Encoder. The
date attribute is splitted into new attributes like month and hour which can be used as
features for the model.

4.11.3 Feature selection Module

Features selection is done which can be used to build the model. The attributes used for
feature selection are Block, Location, District, Community area, X coordinate , Y
coordinate, Latitude , Longitude, Hour and month.

4.11.4 Building and Training Model

After feature selection location and month attribute are used for training. The dataset is
divided into pairs of xtrain ,train and xtest, y test. The algorithm model is imported from
sklearn. Building models is done using models. Fit (xtrain, ytrain).

26
4.11.5 Prediction Module

After the model is built using the above process, prediction is done using
model.predict(xtest). The accuracy is calculated using accuracy_score imported from
metrics - metrics.accuracy_score (ytest, predicted).

4.11.6 Visualization Module

Using matplotlib library from sklearn. Analysis of the crime dataset is done by plotting
various graphs.

4.12 Python

Python is an interpreted high-level general-purpose programming language. Its design

philosophy emphasizes code readability with its use of significant indentation. Its
language constructs as well as its object-oriented approach aim to help programmers
write clear, logical code for small and large-scale projects. Python is dynamically-typed
and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms, including
structured (particularly, procedural), object-oriented and functional programming. It is
often described as a "batteries included" language due to its comprehensive standard
library. Guido van Rossum began working on Python in the late 1980s, as a successor
to the ABC programming language, and first released it in 1991 as Python 0.9.0. Python
2.0 was released in 2000 and introduced new features, such as list comprehensions
and a garbage collection system using reference counting. Python 3.0 was released in
2008 and was a major revision of the language that is not completely backward-
compatible. Python 2 was discontinued with version 2.7.18 in 2020. Python consistently
ranks as one of the most popular programming languages.

4.12.1. GETTING PYTHON

The most up-to-date and current source code, binaries, documentation, news, etc., is
available on the official website of Python https://www.python.org.

Windows Installation

Here are the steps to install Python on a Windows machine.

27
 ● Open a Web browser and go to https://www.python.org/downloads/.
● Follow the link for the Windows installer python-XYZ.msi file where XYZ is the
version you need to install.
● To use this installer python-XYZ.msi, the Windows system must support
Microsoft Installer 2.0. Save the installer file to your local machine and then run it
to find out if your machine supports MSI.
● Run the downloaded file. This brings up the Python install wizard, which is really
easy to use. Just accept the default settings, wait until the install is finished, and
you are done.

The Python language has many similarities to Perl, C, and Java. However, there are
some definite differences between the languages.

4.12.2. Flask Framework

Flask is a web application framework written in Python. Armin Ronacher, who leads an
international group of Python enthusiasts named Pocco, develops it. Flask is based on
the Werkzeug WSGI toolkit and Jinja2 template engine. Both are Pocco project Http
protocol is the foundation of data communication on the world wide web. Different
methods of data retrieval from specified URLs are defined in this protocol.

The following table summarizes different http methods −

Sr.No Methods & Description

28
 GET
1
Sends data in unencrypted form to the server. Most common method.

HEAD
2
Same as GET, but without response body

POST
3
Used to send HTML form data to server. Data received by POST method is
not cached by server.

PUT
4
Replaces all current representations of the target resource with the
uploaded content.

DELETE
5
Removes all current representations of the target resource given by a URL

By default, the Flask route responds to the GET requests. However, this preference
can be altered by providing methods argument to route() decorator.

In order to demonstrate the use of POST method in URL routing, first let us create an
HTML form and use the POST method to send form data to a URL.

Save the following script as login.html

<html>

<body>
29
<formaction="http://localhost:5000/login"method="post">

<p>Enter Name:</p>

<p><inputtype="text"name="nm"/></p>

<p><inputtype="submit"value="submit"/></p>

</form>

</body>

</html>

Now enter the following script in Python shell.

from flask importFlask, redirect,url_for, request

app=Flask(__name__)

@app.route('/success/<name>')

define success(name):

return'welcome %s'% name

@app.route('/login',methods=['POST','GET'])

def login():

if request.method=='POST':

user=request.form['nm']

return redirect(url_for('success',name= user))

else:

user=request.args.get('nm')

return redirect(url_for('success',name= user))

if __name__ =='__main__':

app.run(debug =True)

30
After the development server starts running, open login.html in the browser, enter
name in the text field and click Submit.

Form data is POSTed to the URL in action clause of form tag.

http://localhost/login is mapped to the login() function. Since the server has received

data by POST method, value of ‘nm’ parameter obtained from the form data is obtained

by −

user = request.form['nm']
It is passed to ‗/success‘ URL as variable part. The browser displays a welcome
message in the window.

Change the method parameter to ‘GET’ in login.html and open it again in the browser.

The data received on the server is by the GET method. The value of ‘nm’ parameter is

now obtained by −

31
User = request.args.get(‗nm‘)
Here, args is a dictionary object containing a list of pairs of form parameters and its
corresponding value. The value corresponding to ‗nm‘ parameter is passed on to
‗/success‘ URL as before.

4.13 DATA MINING

4.13.1 An Exploration of Crime Prediction Using Data Mining on Open Data

The increase in crime data recording coupled with data analytics resulted in the growth
of research approaches aimed at extracting knowledge from crime records to better
understand criminal behavior and ultimately prevent future crimes. While many of these
approaches make use of clustering and association rule mining techniques, there are
fewer approaches focusing on predictive models of crime. In this paper, we explore
models for predicting the frequency of several types of crimes by LSOA code (Lower
Layer Super Output Areas — an administrative system of areas used by the UK police)
and the frequency of antisocial behavior crimes. Three algorithms are used from
different categories of approaches: instance-based learning, regression and decision
trees. The data are from the UK police and contain over 600,000 records before
preprocessing. The results, looking at predictive performance as well as processing
time, indicate that decision trees (M5P algorithm) can be used to reliably predict crime
frequency in general as well as anti-social behavior frequency.

4.13.2 Crime Analysis and Prediction Using Data Mining

Crime analysis and prevention is a systematic approach for identifying and analyzing
patterns and trends in crime. Our system can predict regions which have high
probability for crime occurrence and can visualize crime prone areas. With the
increasing advent of computerized systems, crime data analysts can help the Law
enforcement officers to speed up the process of solving crimes. Using the concept of
data mining we can extract previously unknown, useful information from unstructured

32
data. Here we have an approach between computer science and criminal justice to
develop a data mining procedure that can help solve crimes faster. Instead of focusing
on causes of crime occurrence like criminal background of offenders, political enmity etc
we are focusing mainly on crime factors of each day.

4.13.3 Crime Detection Techniques Using data Mining and K-Means

Crimes will somehow influence organizations and institutions when they occur
frequently in a society. Thus, it seems necessary to study reasons, factors and relations
between occurrences of different crimes and finding the most appropriate ways to
control and avoid more crimes. The main objective of this paper is to classify clustered
crimes based on occurrence frequency during different years. Data mining is used
extensively in terms of analysis, investigation and discovery of patterns for occurrence
of different crimes. We applied a theoretical model based on data mining techniques
such as clustering and classification to real crime dataset recorded by police in England
and Wales within 1990 to 2011. We assigned weights to the features in order to improve
the quality of the model and remove low value of them. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) is
used for optimizing Outlier Detection operator parameters using the RapidMiner tool.

4.13.4 Survey on crime analysis and prediction using data mining techniques

Data Mining is the procedure which includes evaluating and examining large pre-
existing databases in order to generate new information which may be essential to the
organization. The extraction of new information is predicted using the existing datasets.
Many approaches for analysis and prediction in data mining had been performed. But,
few efforts have been made in the criminology field. Many few have taken efforts for
compare the information all these approaches produce. The police stations and other
similar criminal justice agencies hold many large databases of information which can be
used to predict or analyze the criminal movements and criminal activity involvement in
the society. The criminals can also be predicted based on the crime data. The main aim
33
of this work is to perform a survey on the supervised learning and unsupervised learning
techniques that has been applied towards criminal identification. This paper presents
the survey on Crime analysis and crime prediction using several Data Mining
techniques.

4.13.5 Crime Pattern Analysis, Visualizations And Prediction Using Data Mining

Crime against women these days has become problem of every nation around the
globe. Many countries are trying to curb this problem. Prevents are taken to reduce the
increasing number of cases of crime against women. A huge amount of data is
generated every year on the basis of reporting of crime. This data can prove very useful
in analyzing and predicting crime and help us prevent the crime to some extent. Crime
analysis is an area of vital importance in the police department. Study of crime data can
help us analyze crime patterns, inter-related clues and important hidden relations
between the crimes. That is why data mining can be a great aid to analyze, visualize
and predict crime using a crime data set. Classification and correlation of data set
makes it easy to understand similarities & dissimilarities amongst the data objects. We
group data objects using clustering techniques. Dataset is classified on the basis of
some predefined condition. Here grouping is done according to various types of crimes
against women taking place in different states and cities of India. Crime mapping will
help the administration to plan strategies for prevention of crime, further using data
mining techniques data can be predicted and visualized in various form in order to
provide better understanding of crime patterns.

4.13.5 Crime Analysis And prediction using Data Mining Techniques

Crime analysis and prevention is a systematic approach for identifying and analyzing
patterns and trends in crime. Our system can predict regions which have high
probability for crime occurrence and can visualize crime prone areas. With the
increasing advent of computerized systems, crime data analysts can help Law
enforcement officers to speed up the process of solving crimes. Using the concept of
data mining we can extract previously unknown, useful information from unstructured
data. Here we have an approach between computer science and criminal justice to
34
develop a data mining procedure that can help solve crimes faster. Instead of focusing
on causes of crime occurrence like the criminal background of the offender, political
enmity, etc we are focusing mainly on crime factors of each day.

4.13.6 Systematic Review of Crime Data Mining

Crime analysis is a methodical approach for identifying and analyzing patterns and
trends in crime. With the increasing origin of computerized systems, crime data analysts
can help the Law enforcement officers to speed up the process of solving crimes. Using
the concept of data mining, we can analyze previously unknown, useful information from
unstructured data. Predictive policing means, using analytical and predictive techniques,
to identify criminals and it has been found to be pretty much effective in doing the same.
Because of the increased crime rate over the years, we will have to handle a huge
amount of crime data stored in warehouses which would be very difficult to be analyzed
manually, and also now a day‘s, criminals are becoming technologically advance, so
there is need to use advanced technologies in order to keep police ahead of them. In
this paper, the main focus is on the review of algorithms and techniques used for
identifying the criminals.

4.13.7 Survey paper on Crime Prediction using Ensemble Approach

Crime is a foremost problem where the top priority has been concerned by individual,
the community and government. This paper investigates a number of data mining
algorithms and ensemble learning which are applied on crime data mining. This survey
paper describes a summary of the methods and techniques which are implemented in
crime data analysis and prediction. Crime forecasting is a way of trying to mining out
and decreasing the upcoming crimes by forecasting the future crime that will occur.
Crime prediction practices historical data and after examining data, predict the
upcoming crime with respect to location, time, day, season and year. In present crime
cases rapidly increase so it is an inspiring task to foresee upcoming crimes closely with
better accuracy. Data mining methods are too important to resolving crime problems
with investigating hidden crime patterns.so the objective of this study could be analyzing
and discussing various methods which are applied on crime prediction and analysis.
35
This paper delivers reasonable investigation of Data mining Techniques and ensemble
classification techniques for discovery and prediction of upcoming crime.

4.14 ACTIVITY DIAGRAM

Activity diagrams(Fig.4.6) are graphical representations of workflows of stepwise

activities and actions with support for choice, iteration and concurrency. In the Unified
Modeling Language, activity diagrams can be used to describe the business and
operational step-by-step workflows of components in a system. An activity diagram
shows the overall flow of control.

Fig. 4.6. Activity Diagram

36
 CHAPTER 5

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This section presents all of the results from the implementations of the KNN ,DECISION
TREE and RANDOM FOREST algorithms. The algorithms were run to predict each of
the following features in the datasets: murders, murdPerPop, rapes, rapesPerPop,
robberies, robbbPerPop, assaults, assaultPerPop, and ViolentCrimesPerPop. Note
that perPop refers to for every 100K of people. The algorithm that gives the lowest error
values for each feature and the highest correlation coefficient is highlighted in the
results present. The application displays the results of the crime type prediction based
on the input crime summary. The middle part of the application displays the results of
the crime type prediction based on the input crime summary. The prediction results
show the probability values for 21 crime types as a bar graph. the types of crimes with
the highest probability values are displayed. Based on the predicted results, field
personnel can quickly identify the type of crime. The predicted CRS is displayed at the
bottom of the application. This prediction result is also displayed in real-time. The
platform can predict crime type and CRS and display the prediction results in real-time;
therefore, field staff, such as police officers, can easily check predictive information
about crimes received through the platform.

37
 CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK

6.1 CONCLUSION

This is focused on building predictive models for crime frequencies per crime type per
month. The crime rates in India are increasing day by day due to many factors such as
increase in poverty, implementation, corruption, etc. The proposed model is very useful
for both the investigating agencies and the police officials in taking necessary steps to
reduce crime. The project helps the crime analysis to analyze these crime networks by
means of various interactive visualizations. Future enhancement of this research work
on training bots to predict the crime prone areas by using machine learning techniques.
Since, machine learning is similar to data mining, advanced concepts of machine
learning can be used for better prediction. The data privacy, reliability, accuracy can be
improved for enhanced prediction.

6.2 FUTURE WORK

Even though the scope of this project was to prove how effective and accurate machine
learning algorithms can be at predicting violent crimes, there are other applications of
data mining in the realm of law enforcement such as determining criminal "hot spots",

38
creating criminal profiles, and learning crime trends. Utilizing these applications of data
mining can be a long and tedious process for law enforcement officials who have to sift
through large volumes of data. However, the precision in which one could infer and
create new knowledge on how to slow down crime is well worth the safety and security
of people.

REFERENCES

[1] Ginger Saltos and Mihaela Coacea, An Exploration of Crime Prediction Using Data
Mining on Open Data, International journal of Information technology & Decision
Making,2017.

[2] Shiju Sathyadevan, Devan M.S, Surya Gangadharan.S, Crime Analysis and
Prediction Using Data Mining, First International Conference on networks & soft
computing (IEEE) 2014.

[3] Khushabu A.Bokde, Tisksha P.Kakade, Dnyaneshwari S. Tumasare, Chetan

G.Wadhai B.E Student, Crime Detection Techniques Using Data Mining and K-Means,
International Journal of Engineering Research & technology (IJERT) ,2018.

[4] H.Benjamin Fredrick David and A.Suruliandi,Survey on crime analysis and prediction
using data mining techniques, ICTACT Journal on Soft computing, 2017.

[5] Tushar Sonawanev, Shirin Shaikh, Rahul Shinde, Asif Sayyad, Crime Pattern
Analysis, Visualization And Prediction Using Data Mining, Indian Journal of Computer
Science and Engineering (IJCSE), 2015.

[6] RajKumar.S, Sakkarai Pandi.M, Crime Analysis and prediction using data mining
techniques, International Journal of recent trends in engineering & research,2019.

39
[7] Sarpreet kaur, Dr. Williamjeet Singh, Systematic review of crime data mining,
International Journal of Advanced Research in computer science , 2015.

[8] Ayisheshim Almaw, Kalyani Kadam, Survey Paper on Crime Prediction using
Ensemble Approach, International journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics,2018.

[9] Dr .M.Sreedevi, A.Harsha Vardhan Reddy, ch.Venkata Sai Krishna Reddy, Review
on crime Analysis and prediction Using Data Mining Techniques, International Journal
of Innovative Research in Science Engineering and technology ,2018.

[10] K.S.N .Murthy, A.V.S.Pavan kumar, Gangu Dharmaraju, international journal of

engineering, Science and mathematics, 2017.

[11] Deepika k.K, Smitha Vinod, Crime analysis in India using data mining techniques ,
International journal of Engineering and technology, 2018.

[12] Hitesh Kumar Reddy ToppyiReddy, Bhavana Saini, Ginika Mahajan, Crime
Prediction And Monitoring Framework Based on Spatial Analysis, International
Conference on Computational Intelligence Data Science (ICCIDS 2018).

40
 APPENDICES

A. SOURCE CODE

Login.html

<!DOCTYPE html>

<html lang="en">

<head>

<meta charset="utf-8">

<meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport">

<title>login</title>

<meta content="" name="description">

<meta content="" name="keywords">

41
 <!-- Favicons -->

<link href="../static/img/favicon.png" rel="icon">

<link href="../static/img/apple-touch-icon.png" rel="apple-touch-icon">

<!-- Google Fonts -->

<!-- Vendor CSS Files -->

<link href="../static/vendor/bootstraps/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/icofont/icofont.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/animate.css/animate.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/font-awesome/css/font-awesome.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/nivo-slider/css/nivo-slider.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/owl.carousel/assets/owl.carousel.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/venobox/venobox.css" rel="stylesheet">

<!-- Template Main CSS File -->

<link href="../static/css/styles.css" rel="stylesheet">

<!-- =======================================================

* Template Name: eBusiness - v2.2.1

* Template URL: https://bootstrapmade.com/ebusiness-bootstrap-corporate-template/

42
 * Author: BootstrapMade.com

* License: https://bootstrapmade.com/license/

======================================================== -->

</head>

<body data-spy="scroll" data-target="#navbar-example">

<!-- ======= Header ======= -->

<header id="header" class="fixed-top">

<div class="container d-flex">

<div class="logo mr-auto">

<h1 class="text-light"><a href="{{url_for('first')}}"><span></span>CRIME

TYPE</a></h1>

<!-- Uncomment below if you prefer to use an image logo -->

<!-- <a href="index.html"><img src="assets/img/logo.png" alt="" class="img-

fluid"></a>-->

</div>

<nav class="nav-menu d-none d-lg-block">

<ul>

<li class="active"><a href="{{url_for('first')}}">Home</a></li>

<li><a href="{{url_for('login')}}">Login</a></li>
43
</ul>

</nav><!-- .nav-menu -->

</div>

</header><!-- End Header -->

<!-- ======= Slider Section ======= -->

<div class="header-bg page-area">

<div class="home-overly"></div>

<div class="container">

<div class="row">

<div class="col-md-12 col-sm-12 col-xs-12">

<div class="slider-content text-center">

<div class="header-bottom">

<div class="layer2 wow zoomIn" data-wow-duration="1s" data-wow-

delay=".4s">

<h1 class="title2"></h1>

</div>

44
<title>login</title>

<meta content="" name="description">

<meta content="" name="keywords">

<!-- Favicons -->

<link href="../static/img/favicon.png" rel="icon">

<link href="../static/img/apple-touch-icon.png" rel="apple-touch-icon">

<!-- Google Fonts -->

<!-- Vendor CSS Files -->

<link href="../static/vendor/bootstraps/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/icofont/icofont.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/animate.css/animate.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/font-awesome/css/font-awesome.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/nivo-slider/css/nivo-slider.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/owl.carousel/assets/owl.carousel.min.css" rel="stylesheet">

<link href="../static/vendor/venobox/venobox.css" rel="stylesheet">

45
B. SCREENSHOTS

Fig 1 Home page

46
Fig 2 Upload page

Fig 3 Login Page

47
Fig 4 Preview Page

48
Fig 5 Form Filling

49
Fig 6 Prediction Page

50
Fig 7 Analysis page

51
C. PUBLICATION WITH PLAGIARISM REPORT

52
53
54
55
56
57
58