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Week 2 Computing Probabilities

The document discusses probability concepts including sample space, events, simple probability, probability involving sequences of events, and probability of compound events. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities of various events using formulas and rules of probability. Understanding basic probability concepts is important for making informed decisions in daily life situations.

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Week 2 Computing Probabilities

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GOOD AFTERNOON

GRADE 11-COMMITMENT
Welcome to Statistics and Probability
Class
January 13, 2022
Objectives:
At the end of the lesson, the students are
expected to:

1. Identify sample space and determine the

probability of an event using classical or
empirical probability.

2. Determine the probability of compound

events using the addition rules and
multiplication rules.

3. Find the conditional probability of an event.

REVIEW:
● What is COMBINATION?
● What is PERMUTATION?
What is PROBABILITY?
Sample Space and Events
A sample space, also called an outcome space, is simply the set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment.
An event refers to a subset of the sample space.
Note: Sample spaces and events are sets and they should be written using braces; thus,
they are written in roster form.

Example:
1. Supposes two different coins are tossed at random.

Possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH, and TT

Sample Space: S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Sample Space and Events
A sample space, also called an outcome space, is simply the set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment.
An event refers to a subset of the sample space.
Note: Sample spaces and events are sets and they should be written using braces; thus,
they are written in roster form.

Example:
2. A book is to be selected from five books on a shelf.
The books consist of algebra, geometry, statistics,
history, and physics books.
Sample Space: B = {algebra, geometry, statistics, history,
physics}
Event: “that a math book is chosen”
M = {algebra, geometry, statistics}
Sample Space and Events
Example:
3. Two fair dice are rolled and the outcome is recorded. Write a set for the following events:
(a) sum of 5 and (b) doubles.
Possible Outcomes: 6 × 6 = 36 outcomes
Sample Space:

Event A : “sum of 5”
F = {(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)}

Event B: “doubles”
D = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}
Sample Space and Events
Example:
4. Two fair dice are rolled and the outcome is recorded. Write a set for the following events:
(a) sum of 8 and (b) sum is divisible by 3.
Possible Outcomes: 6 × 6 = 36 outcomes
Sample Space:

Event A : sum of 8
E = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3),(6,2)}

Event B: sum is divisible by 3

G = {(1, 2), (1, 5), (2,1), (2, 4), (3, 3), (3, 6), (4, 2), (4,5), (5,1), (5,4), (6,3), (6,6)}
Simple Probability

NOTE: Event is a subset of the sample space

Simple Probability
Observations:
1. The probability of an event is always a value between and
including 0 and 1.
➢ A probability of 0 means that the event is
impossible to happen.
➢ A probability of 1 means that the event is certain to
happen.
➢ The event is less likely to happen when the
probability is close to 0 and is more likely to happen
when the probability is close to 1.
2. The probability that an event will happen and the
probability that it will not, give a sum of 1, or in symbols,
P(E) + P(E‘) = 1. Therefore, P(E‘) = 1 − P(E) . This is called
the complement rule of probability.
Simple Probability
Examples
1. If you flip two coins, what is the probability that “both heads” will appear?
Sample Space: S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Solution:

This can also be written as 0.25 or 25%

2. A pair of dice is thrown, what is the probability of getting a sum that is prime?
Sample Space:

Event: P = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 4), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 3), (2, 5), (3, 2), (3, 4), (4, 1), (4, 3), (5,
2), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 5)}
Simple Probability
Examples
2. A pair of dice is thrown, what is the probability of getting a sum that is prime?
Sample Space:

Event: P = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 4), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 3), (2, 5), (3, 2), (3, 4), (4, 1), (4, 3), (5,
2), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 5)}

Solution:
Simple Probability
Examples
3. In a standard deck of card, what is the probability of picking a black jack at random?
Sample Space: 52 deck of cards
Event: E = {jack of spades, jack of clubs}
Solution:

4. Moira collects stamps from different countries. She has 10 different stamps from
China, 5 from Thailand, 3 from France, 6 from USA, and 1 from Venezuela. Her sister
Lindsay borrows one stamp for a school assignment. What is the probability that the
stamp Lindsay borrows is from Thailand?
Sample Space: 10 + 5 + 3 + 6 + 1 = 25
Event: 5 from Thailand
Simple Probability
Examples
5. Jess has a bag with 6 red, 4 blue, and 8 green marbles. What is the probability that a
marble chosen at random is not red?
Sample Space: 6 + 4 + 8 = 18
Event: 6 red marbles
Probability: 6/18 or 1/3

Solution:
Simple Probability
Examples
6. A four-digit number is formed using the digits 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, and 9. What is the
probability that the number formed is even?
Sample Space: 6 x 6 x 6 x 6 = 1296
Event: 6 x 6 x 6 x 2 = 432

Solution:
Simple Probability
Examples
7. Marie has 8 books including books on geometry, chemistry, biology, history, English,
algebra, statistics, and Filipino. What is the probability that her math books (geometry,
algebra, and statistics) are located at the rightmost part of the shelf but not necessarily
in that order?
3P3 = the number of ways of arranging the rightmost books (math books)
5P5 = the number of ways of arranging the leftmost books (other 5 books)

Sample Space: Arrangement of books without restrictions (8P8 = 8! = 40 320 elements)

Event: 3P3 × 5P5 = 3! × 5! = 720
Solution:
Simple Probability
Examples
8. Mrs. Balao is randomly choosing 3 students for a team who will compete in a math quiz
bee, and there are 5 girls and 8 boys to choose from. What is the probability of having a
team made up of 2 girls and a boy?
Sample Space: No gender restrictions

Event:

Solution:

This may also be written as 0.2797 or 27.97%

Probability Involving a Sequence of Events

9 . A coin is tossed and then, a die is rolled. What is the probability of getting a head
followed by a 4?
P(A) = event of getting a head from tossing a coin
P (B) = event of getting a 4 from rolling a die

Solution:
Probability Involving a Sequence of Events
10 . A pair of dice is rolled thrice. What is the probability of getting doubles in the three
rolls?
Sample Space: 36 elements
Event A : P(A)= First roll; A = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}
= 6/36 = 1/6
Event B : P(B)= Second roll; B = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}
= 6/36 = 1/6
Event C : P(C)= Third roll; C = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}
= 6/36 = 1/6
Solution:
Probability Involving a Sequence of Events
11 . Suppose a football player has a 65% chance of making a goal that he can keep each
time he tries to make a goal. What is the probability that he makes a goal the first three
times he tries to but not on the fourth try?
Event A : The probability that the player makes a goal is 65% or 0.65
Event B : Using the complement rule, the probability that he does not make a goal is
1 − 0.65 or 0.35.
Solution:

The probability is 0.0961 or 9.61%.

Probability Involving a Sequence of Events

12 . Josiah draws 2 cards at random from a standard deck of 52 cards without

replacement. What is the probability of getting 2 ace cards?

The probability is approximately 0.45%.

Probability Involving a Sequence of Events
12 . Gabriel has a candy box containing 9 chocolate candies and 12 lollipops. If he chooses
2 of them at random, what is the probability that he gets 2 lollipops?
Event A: Probability of getting the first lollipop
P(A)= 12/21
= 4/7
Event B: Probability of getting the second lollipop
P(B) = 11/20
Solution:
Probability of Compound Events

13. A card is drawn at random from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability that
the card drawn is an ace or a king?
Event A: Probability of getting an ace card

Event B: Probability of getting a King card

Solution:
Probability of Compound Events
14. A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum is 5 or 6?
Event A: Probability “sum of 5”
A = {(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)}
P(A) = 4/36
Event B: Probability “sum of 6”
B = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}
P(B) = 5/36
Solution:
Probability of Compound Events

15. If a card is selected at random from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability
that the card drawn is a red card or a face card?
BIG IDEAS
● Basic understanding of the concepts of probability is
important in your daily life. Having an idea that certain
events are happening or not happening influences your
decision and the course of action you will take. For
example, recognizing the probability of you getting a low
score in a test will push you to spend a sufficient amount
of time reviewing your lessons.

● Like any other topic in mathematics, careful and accurate

implementation of a formula is crucial to computing the
correct answer or solution to the given word problems
involving probability. A simple error in the earlier steps of
the solution greatly affects the quality of the solution.
This reflects the adage which is popularly heard in
computer education classes—“garbage in, garbage out”.