TOPIC: -

WEATHER ANALYSIS AND WEATHERFORECASTING.

PAPER NAME: - ADVANCED CLIMATOLOGY

SUBJECT: - GEOGRAPHY
SEMESTER: - M.A –II
PAPER CODE: - (GEO-201)
UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY,
DR. SHYMA PRASAD MUKHERJEE UNIVERSITY, RANCHI.
 WEATHER ANALYSIS AND WEATHERFORECASTING.

INTRODUCTION: -
In this course so far, you have studied about the atmospheric processes in general as well
as few extreme weather events. You are also well acquainted with classification of climates
given by some of the leading scholars. You have also learned about the processes that have
brought about a change in climate. In this module, you will study about the processes of
recording weather data which leads to forecasting of weather. Today weather prediction has
become the need of the hour. Almost all sections of society need weather forecasts directly or
indirectly, whether they are general public, administrators, farmers, businessmen or
industrialists etc. This module will take you to the journey of weather forecasting since ancient
times to the modern era when satellite remote sensing and GIS have brought about a revolution
in weather forecasting methods and techniques. You will be introduced to different procedures
and tools used in weather forecasting as well different types of weather forecasting.
DEFINITION AND MEANING: -

Weather forecasting simply means prediction of atmospheric conditions like air

temperature, humidity, sky conditions, air pressure and general circulation of the atmosphere of a
particular place or a region using scientific tools and technological knowledge. In other words, it
is a way of predicting the atmospheric conditions before they actually happen and is
supplemented by a variety of statistical and empirical techniques. The weather prediction or
forecast is done at different temporal levels like daily, weekly, monthly etc. depending upon
different sources of information. It requires a lot of high level research work in atmospheric
sciences.

As already mentioned, now-a-days there is an increasing demand of weather forecast data for
different sections of the society. For example, if tourists plan a trip to a destination for a week,
they will require a complete weather forecast for that duration, so as to plan accordingly. This
would also enable them to take necessary precautions well in advance. Similarly, fishermen also
need forecast but their need varies in different temporal ranges of forecast, ranging from only a
few hours to a few days depending upon the time they go for fishing. If they come back within a
day, they would need forecast of few hours. If their crew go for fishing for few days, then in that
case they need forecast for that many days. Sports events also depend a lot on weather. The
success of any major outdoor game or tournament depends on favourable weather conditions and
of course weather forecast. Weather forecasting is highly required for all farming activities right
from sowing to applying fertilizer, need for irrigation and harvesting of crops. It also helps in the
storage and transportation of crops.

So in a way we can say that weather forecasting is a product of science that impacts us in all
walks of life.

HISTOGENESIS OF WEATHER FORECASTING: -

In module 32, related to Progress in Climatology, you have already studied that even in
ancient times much before the advent of modern tools and satellite technology, weather
forecasting was prevalent in the society. Please refer to that section as it is related to the
histogenesis of weather forecasting. However, we discuss that in brief here.

During ancient times, much of the forecasting was done in a crude manner by just looking at the
sky and general atmospheric conditions, like sky colour, wind direction, cloud colour and its
cover, lightening, thunder etc. Behaviour of some animals and birds were also marked as an
indication of change in weather conditions. Certain folklores were also in use during early
periods of history as a method of weather forecasting.
Systematic weather data recording started with the invention of instruments like thermometer by
Galileo in 1593 and barometer by Torricelli in 1686. You must be knowing that thermometer is
used for measuring air temperature while barometer is used for air pressure. The invention of
telegraph in the year 1840 further helped in the collection and propagation of weather data and
reports to each and every part of the world. Then with the advent of radiotelegraphy it became
easier to collect climatic data. Then came the air-craft sounding technique which further
revolutionised the method of weather data collection. Then with the help of radar technology, it
became possible to determine upper winds with greater accuracy as well as track tropical
cyclones, thunderstorms and other extreme weather events.

The first meteorological satellite, TIROS 1 was launched by United States in 1960. You have
also studied that there are two types of weather satellites, namely sun synchronous and
geosynchronous satellites. Also the invention of high speed electronic computers also
revolutionized the method of analyzing climatic data. It helped to solve various complex
mathematical problems with ease which is very important in various weather predicting models.

PROCEDURES OF WEATHER FORECASTING: -

Today weather forecasting has become very scientific and involves some well-defined
steps like recording, collecting, transmitting, compilation, plotting, analyzing and then the final
forecasting of the weather related information. Let us get acquainted with them in brief.

Recording of weather data like temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, precipitation
etc. is done with the help of several instruments and tools in weather and meteorological stations.
These stations are located around the world be it land or water surface. These recordings are
done at different times of the day, especially during the four times, that is, 6 a.m., 6 p.m., 12 a.m.
and 12 p.m. Satellite imageries are also studied to record weather related information.

Collection of weather related information and data is done through various weather recording
centres and stations scattered at different places around the world. These centres are distributed
in various landscapes, that is, mountains, plains, plateaus as well as water areas in the oceans and
seas. They collect meteorological, climatological, hydrological and oceanographic data from
over 15 satellites, 100 moored buoys, 600 drifting buoys, 3000 aircraft, 7300 ships and some
10,000 land-based observation stations which are a part of World Meteorological Organisation
(WMO).

Transmission of weather related data is done after the recording and collection. World
Meteorological Organisation is a scientific body of United Nations established in 1950 and
having 191 member countries with a huge network of observatories and stations as mentioned
above. WMO coordinates with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of its
member countries through which weather related data is shared internationally through the
World Weather Watch. There are three major collection centres of WMO where the information
from local and regional centres are transmitted. They are located at Washington D.C. in USA,
Melbourne in Australia and Moscow in Russia. This enables in the dissemination of daily
weather forecasts and early and reliable warnings of high-impact weather and climate events.

After the processes of recording, collection and transmission of data comes the work of
compilation and analysis of data which is done by climatological experts. Computers are used in
the final analysis work and various models are in use by the experts which we would learn in the
coming subsections. Lastly after the analysis, final interpretation is done which is in the form of
weather forecast.

TOOLS IN WEATHER FORECASTING: -

You are already familiar with several instruments that are used to collect weather related
data. These instruments are thermometers, barometers, hygrometers, rain gauge etc. that
measures weather variables locally. With the advent of satellite climatology, it has been possible
to get weather related information for a relatively larger area and also measure upper air weather
conditions. So radiosondes, satellites, radars, etc. help in collection of upper atmospheric data.
Let us learn about the other instrument in brief here.

Radiosondes are instrument that are carried aloft by a balloon as shown in Figure 1 and has
radio transmitting capabilities. It is a combination of two words "radio" which is for the onboard
radio transmitter and "sonde", which means messenger from old English. It contains sensors
capable of making direct in-situ measurements of pressure, temperature and wet bulb
temperature upto an altitude of approximately 30 km. The observed data is transmitted
immediately to the ground station by a radio transmitter located within the instrument package.
The ground based antenna tracks the motions of the radiosonde and measurements are taken.

Rawinsondes are similar to radiosondes but they provide wind speed and direction at various
altitudes based on radar tracking. This is because the balloon is filled with hydrogen and is
released with a metal target to reflect radar signals. So apart from ascending, the balloon also
drifts horizontally as per wind speed.
 Fig. 1: Radiosonde.

Both aeroplanes and satellites are used for taking pictures of the earth’s atmosphere at different
levels. Aeroplanes provide aerial photos of cloud covers at probably lower altitudes. Satellites
on the other hand are of two types basically geostationary and polar orbital satellites that are
important for taking imageries and recording atmospheric data. You have already read about
them in module 32 of this course. You may recall that geosynchronous satellites because of the
extremely high altitudes (about 36,000 km) are capable of taking imageries of a relatively larger
area compared to the polar satellites. Polar satellites on account of their low altitudes (about 800
km) are capable of recording minute atmospheric details of relatively smaller area like cloud
cover, water vapour etc.

There are two types of sensors attached with satellites. One is the sounding sensor and another is
the imaging sensor. An example of sounding sensor is AVHRR (Advanced Very High
Resolution Radiometer) that provides useful information about thermal conditions of the
atmosphere, cloud cover, water vapour etc. They are attached with polar satellites. On the other
hand, the imaging sensors are attached with high altitude geosynchronous or geostationary
satellites and provide information about thermal conditions and humidity conditions of the
atmosphere. They are also capable of taking pictures about physical and cultural landscape of the
region.

Radars (Radio Detection and Ranging) are active remote sensing systems operating at
microwave wavelengths. You have already studied about active and passive remote sensing
system. The primary advantage of active remote sensing system or radar is that, it can take
imageries during any time, whether it is daylight or night or in any weather condition whether it
is cloudy or precipitating in the form of rain or snowfall. The basic principle underlying a radar
is that the sensor in this transmits a microwave (radio) signal towards a target object and detects
the backscattered radiation. The strength of the backscattered signal is measured to discriminate
between different targets and the time delay between the transmitted and reflected signals
determines the distance (or range) of the target object from the radar. There are different modes
of operation of the radar, that is constant wave mode which is continuous and pulsed mode
which transmits electromagnetic waves in short pulses. Refer to Figure 2 to get a clear picture of
Radar.

Fig. 2: Fundamentals of Radar.

Now let us get acquainted with different types of weather forecasting based on different time
scales.

TYPES OF WEATHER FORECASTING: -

As mentioned above, weather forecasting is done for different temporal scales which has
different uses and have different parameters for accuracy. So on the basis of different time scales,
there are four types of weather forecasting. They are listed below:

i. Long Range Weather Forecast

ii. Medium Range Weather Forecast
iii. Short Range Weather Forecast
iv. Nowcast
LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST: -

Long range forecast as the name suggests is done for a longer temporal range. These are
not forecasts in true sense but are given in the form of statements or estimates for the period
ranging from a fortnight, month, season or even a year. As these are given in the form of
statements and is for a longer period, the level of accuracy is definitely lesser compared to
the shorter ranges of weather forecasting. Such forecasts give due consideration to the
departures of temperature and pressure and other atmospheric conditions from normal
atmospheric conditions for a particular season or period of time. These departures are seen
from an average of past observations regarding the different elements of weather or
atmospheric conditions. Long range forecasts are considered important if the forecaster
believes that the forecasting is accurate and his level of confidence is high. For instance, if a
forecaster says that it would rain next Monday with a 90% level of confidence, then it is
considered important. Similarly, long range forecasts are given for a season, like for
predicting the success or failure of monsoons in case of India. These are based on several
parameters like Southern Oscillation, El Nino, or both, that is ENSO (El Nino and Southern
Oscillation). You must have watched on television news channels regarding predictions for
the success of forthcoming monsoons by climatic experts very often.

MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST: -

Medium range weather forecasting is given for the time interval ranging between 3 days to
3 weeks. These have greater accuracy compared to long range weather forecast but have
lesser accuracy in comparison to short range weather forecasts. Like long range weather
forecasts they are also given considering the mean weather conditions for the extended period
based on past and present weather conditions. This is important for various weather sensitive
activities such as farming operations, flood forecasting, water resource management, sports,
transport etc. Medium-range forecasts were impossible before the advent of satellites remote
sensing for climatological purposes. Global forecasting models developed at the U.S. National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF), and the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) became the
standard during the 1980s for making medium-range forecasting a reality. India
Meteorological Department (IMD) has operational mandate to provide day to day forecasts on
short to medium range for various user specific application such as, public weather services,
aviation, agriculture, hydrology, disaster management etc.

SHORT RANGE WEATHER FORECAST: -

Short range forecast is made for the time period ranging from few hours to a day or even
72 hours. The purpose of short-range weather forecasting today is to provide various users
with the information on anticipated weather conditions for forthcoming two or three days. It
covers areas of a few million square kilometers. The prime objective is to take necessary
precautions
 beforehand so as to reduce the inconvenience or damage caused by adverse weather
conditions. Short range weather forecasting has a high level of accuracy compared to the two
types discussed above and is based on maps, weather charts, satellite imageries or any change
in atmospheric conditions over a particular location. About 80-90% accuracy is seen in
forecasts that is done for smaller duration, say 12 hours. These have greater application in
day-to-day activities, for example in aviation, transport, tourism, sports, health, adventure
activities and for managing the disasters. This is because such forecasts are weather specific
and predict specific weather phenomenon like fog, thunderstorms, cyclones, dust storms,
hailstorms etc. and the information is transmitted in the form of weather report through both
print (newspapers) and electronic media (radio or television channels) to the people.

NOWCAST: -

Nowcast is a weather forecast for a very short duration and comprises of detailed
description of the current weather along with forecasts obtained by extrapolation usually for a
few hours, say about 0-6 hours. Through nowcast, it becomes possible to forecast even the
minute details of individual storms with reasonable accuracy. In this case, the forecast is
done for a relatively small area like a city and minute weather details are covered with the
help of radar, satellite images and observational data. It is predominantly given as a pre-
warning against any extreme weather event like, cyclone, thunderstorms and tornados which
has the possibility of causing flash floods, lightning strikes and destructive winds. One
important feature of nowcast is that, it provides location-specific forecasts of storms right
from initiation, its growth and movement to final dissipation. This location specific
information helps the local people to cope with any such extreme weather events.
Extrapolating radars are used for nowcasting. Nowcasting systems use the combination of
radar extrapolation techniques along with satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
model products to produce an extended short-period forecast. You will learn about NWP
models in the next section of this module.

Thus, nowcast is helpful in three ways. Firstly, it prevents casualties of the population
vulnerable to these extreme weather events. Secondly, it helps to minimize the loss of
property either public or private in an event of any such weather related disaster. Thirdly, it
also prevents the loss in economy by improving the savings for sectors that could be directly
affected by weather. Besides being used for disaster management, nowcast is also used for
aviation purposes. Here weather related information is given for both terminals, that is, the
source and the destination as well as en-route environmental conditions are also provided.
Nowcast also provides information for marine safety, water and power management, off-
shore oil drilling, construction industry and leisure industry.

So far, you have learnt about different types of weather forecasting. Now, let us get acquainted
with different methods of weather forecasting.
METHODS OF WEATHER FORECASTING:-

There are several different methods used for weather forecasting. The method chosen by
forecasters depends upon their experience, the amount of information available to them and the
level of difficulty posed by the forecast situation. Weather forecasting requires a lot of
atmospheric research and includes numerous mathematical and statistical techniques and models
and is done by professional weather scientists and forecasters as mentioned.

Let us study some of well-defined forecasting methods used by climatologists. They are as
follows:

A. Persistence Method

B. Trends Method

C. Climatology Method

D. Analog Method

E. Numerical Weather Prediction Method

Describe the methods.

PERSISTENCE METHOD: -

This is the simplest of all the methods listed above and as the name suggests it is based on
the phrase “today equals tomorrow”. In this method, it is assumed that the atmospheric
conditions would persist tomorrow like the way it is today. For example, if it is sunny today with
the temperature of 37oC, then tomorrow also, it would be the same if prediction is done as per
this method. This method works best for places where weather conditions do not change much
for a particular season or time. For example, in Southern California during summers predictions
can be made with the help of persistence method as there are very few changes in day-to-day
weather conditions at that time there. It might appear that, this method is generally used for short
range forecasts, but it is more suitable for long range weather forecasts, for example monthly or
seasonal forecasts like a cold and dry month would be followed by another cold and dry month.

TRENDS METHOD: -

This method as the name suggests, is based on certain trends on the basis of which
prediction is made. These trends could be like speed and the direction of winds in a cyclonic
condition which could precisely predict the time when the cyclone would hit a particular place.
For example, if a cyclone is at 1000 km west from a region “X” and is advancing eastwards with
a velocity of 200 km per day, it would hit the place “X” in five days. Trends method is also
applicable for nowcasts if the prediction is made for a few hours. For example, if a thunderstorm
is located about 60 km north-west of a place and is moving in south-easterly direction at the
rate of 30
km/hour, then it would reach the place in just 2 hours’ time. This method is useful if there is
consistency in the speed and direction of a particular weather system.

CLIMATOLOGY METHOD: -

As the name suggests, the climatology method involves the predictions of weather of a
particular place and time by finding out the average weather conditions of that particular place
and time accumulated over many years. For example, if one has to make predictions of weather
conditions of Mumbai for 10th of June, then all weather data recorded in previous years for
Mumbai for June 10, would be taken into consideration. This method works well if the weather
conditions are more or less similar for that particular place for that particular time. If the weather
conditions are erratic at that time, then this method will not work.

ANALOG METHOD: -

This method is based on regularity or periodicity of weather conditions in the past and
belief of recurrence or repetition of similar weather events in future. Analog method thus finds
an analogy of a particular day’s forecast scenario with a day in the past when the weather
scenario looked similar. Take for example; if stormy conditions had developed in an area after a
warm afternoon, then if similar temperature conditions persist in the afternoon, one can predict
the arrival of storm. It is however true that this method is complicated as there is impossibility to
find a perfect analog. Even small differences can lead faulty results and inaccurate predictions.

NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NYP) METHOD: -

Numerical weather prediction method uses the power of computers and complex computer
programmes and equations concerning atmospheric variables like temperature, pressure,
humidity etc. These equations are used by models which are run on supercomputers with the help
of which weather forecasting is done. The equations used for this method has to be very precise,
otherwise when the models are run, the errors multiply and give erroneous results. The errors are
also due to certain gaps in the data received before which forms the basis of equations and are
run in a model. However, it is worth mentioning that despite these flaws, this method is
considered the best of the methods discussed above and gives precise day-to-day weather
forecast. It also requires tremendous expertise and only experienced forecasters use this model to
give precise weather information.

WEATHER FORECASTING IN INDIA: -

IMD was established in 1875 as a National Meteorological Service of the country which
brought all meteorological work in the country under a single authority. It has the prime
objective of taking meteorological observations and act as a governmental agency of forecast
related to certain weather sensitive activities like agriculture, water resource management,
industries, oil exploration, shipping, aviation etc. It has a tremendous role in giving pre-warning
in case of extreme weather events like cyclone, floods, thunderstorms, heat and cold waves etc.
The information is disseminated to the disaster management agencies and general public so as to
prevent the loss of life and property if any such extreme weather condition results. One important
objective of the IMD is also to prevent high end research in meteorology and related fields. It
also detects and finds out the exact location of earthquakes in different parts of the country so as
to aid in some vulnerability assessment of some development projects.

Since the last 140 years, IMD has come a long way right from the telegraph age to the computer
age to current times which is the era of satellites. India boasts of having its own geostationary
satellites for continuous monitoring of atmospheric conditions and making precise weather
predictions. The INSAT series of satellites carrying Very High Resolution Radiometer (VHRR)
have been providing data for generating cloud motion vectors, cloud top temperature, water
vapour content, etc., facilitating rainfall estimation, weather forecasting, genesis of cyclones and
their track prediction. Oceansat-2, launched on September 23, 2009, carries Ocean Color
Monitor (OCM), Ku-band Scatterometer and a Radio Occultation Sounder for Atmospheric
studies (ROSA).

ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) has also designed and developed ground based
observation systems such as, Automatic Weather Station (AWS), Agro-meteorological
(AGROMET) Tower and Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) as well as Vertical Atmospheric
Observations System such as GPS Sonde and Boundary Layer LIDAR (Light Detection and
Ranging) whose short form is BLL. These ground based system would augment the space based
observations and validating the outcomes pertaining to various earth system processes. Refer to
Figure 3 to get an idea of forecast performance in terms of accuracy of IMD with respect to
cyclone Hudhud which came in 2014. The red line represents the forecasted tract while the black
line represents the actual observed track followed by the cyclone. There is a very little difference
between the two, which suggests the high level of accuracy attained by IMD in forecast these
days. In future even higher precision would be obtained.
 Observed
Track
Forecasted

Fig. 3: Forecast Performance of IMD Regarding Cyclone Hudhud.

CONCLUSIONS: -

Weather forecasting is defined as prediction of atmospheric conditions like air

temperature, humidity, sky conditions, air pressure and general circulation of the atmosphere of a
particular place or a region using scientific tools and technological knowledge. During ancient
times, much of the forecasting was done in a crude manner like sky colour, wind direction, cloud
colour and its cover, lightening, thunder, behaviour of some animals and birds, certain folklores
etc. Systematic weather data recording started with the advent of instruments like thermometer,
barometer, telegraph, radiotelegraphy, radar technology and finally satellites namely sun
synchronous and geosynchronous satellites.

Weather forecasting involves some well-defined steps like recording, collecting, transmitting,
compilation, plotting, analyzing and then the final forecasting of the weather related information.
The tools used in weather forecasting are thermometers, barometers, hygrometers, rain gauge,
radiosondes, rawinsondes, aeroplanes, satellites and radars etc.

Weather forecasting is done for different temporal scales which has different uses and have
different parameters for accuracy like long range weather forecast, medium range weather
forecast, short range weather forecast and nowcast.

There are several different methods used for weather forecasting. Some of the well-defined
forecasting methods used by climatologists are persistence method, trends method, climatology
method, analog method, numerical weather prediction method.