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Exercises Chapter 3

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Exercise Chapter 3:- Estimating the Lifetime Distribution Function

1. A chef specialising in the manufacture of fluffy meringues uses a Whiskmatic


disposable electric kitchen implement. The Whiskmatic is rather unreliable and often
breaks down, so the chef is in the habit of replacing the implement in use at a given
time, shortly before an important social function or after making the 1,000th fluffy
meringue with that implement.

The following times until mechanical failure (no asterisk) or replacement whilst working
in order (asterisk) were observed (measured in days of use): 17, 13, 15*,7*,21, 18*,
5, 18, 6*, 22, 19*, 15, 4, 11, 14*, 18, 10, 10, 8*, 17.

(i) State the values of n,m,k, tj, dj, and nj for these data, assuming the censoring
occurs just after the failures were observed.
(ii) Calculate the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the Whiskmatic survival function
~
(iii) Using Greenwood’s formula, estimate var[ 𝑆 (16)].
(iv) Calculate the Nelson-Aalen estimate of the cumulative hazard function using
the given data values.
~
(v) Use the given data values to estimate Var[ Λ 16].

2. A clinical trial is being carried out to test the effectiveness of a new drug. Sixty patients
were involved in the trial, which followed them for 2 years from the start of their
treatment. The following data show the period in complete months from the start of
treatment to the end of observation for those patients who died or withdrew from the
trial before the end of the 2-year period.

Deaths : 8,10,10,16,20
Withdrawals : 2,6,9,16,18,22,22

(i) Calculate the Kaplen-Meier estimate of the survival function.


(ii) Construct an approximate 95% confidence interval for the probability that a
patient survives for at least 18 months after the start of the drug treatment.
3. Arif worked as a risk manager in a food processing company. One of his main tasks is
to look at the lifetime of processed food produced. He decided to observe the
production of 15 processed foods for 10 days to find the survival function. The results
are as follows:

Day Number of Affected Food


1 No food affected
2 1 affected
3 No food affected
4 3 affected
5 No food affected
6 2 affected
7 1 affected
8 No food affected
9 2 affected
10 No food affected

(i) Calculate the Kaplen-Meier and Nelson Aalen estimates of the survival function
of the processed food for 10 days.
(ii) Compare the graph for each survival function and give your comment.

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