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POPULATION BIOLOGY CONCEPTS

Topic 1: Population Ecology and Carrying Capacity
Population ecology is the study of populations in relation to the environment, including
environmental influences on population density and distribution, age structure, and population
size.
- A population is a group of individuals of a single species that live in the same general
area.
- Members of a population rely on the same resources, are influenced by similar
environmental factors, and have a high likelihood of interacting with and breeding with
one another.
- Populations can evolve through natural selection acting on heritable variations among
individuals and changing the frequencies of various traits over time.
Characteristics of Population Ecology
Ecologists use various terms when understanding and discussing populations of organisms. A
population is all of one kind of species residing in a particular location. Population size
represents the total number of individuals in a habitat. Population density refers to how many
individuals reside in particular area.
Population Size is represented by the letter N, and it equals the total number of individuals in a
population. The larger a population is, the greater its generic variation and therefore its potential
for long-term survival. Increased population size can, however, lead to other issues, such as
overuse of resources leading to a population crash.
Population Density refers to the number of individuals in a particular area. A low-density area
would have more organisms spread out. High-density areas would have more individuals living
closer together, leading to greater resource competition.
Population Dispersion: Yields helpful information about how species interact with each other.
Researchers can learn more about populations by studying the way they are distributed or
dispersed.
Population distribution describes how individuals of a species are spread out, whether they live
in close proximity to each other or far apart, or clustered into groups.
- Uniform dispersion refers to organisms that live in a specific territory. One example
would be penguins. Penguins live in territories, and within those territories the birds
space themselves out relatively uniformly.
- Random dispersion refers to the spread of individuals such as wind-dispersed seeds,
which fall randomly after traveling.
- Clustered or clumped dispersion refers to a straight drop of seeds to the ground, rather
than being carried, or to groups of animals living together, such as herds or schools.
Schools of fish exhibit this manner of dispersion.
Two important characteristics of any population are density and the spacing of individuals.
- Every population has a specific size and specific geographical boundaries.
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- The density of a population is measured as the number of individuals per unit area or
volume.
- The dispersion of a population is the pattern of spacing among individuals within the
geographic boundaries.
WHAT ABOUT THESE TWO CRUCIAL CHARACTERISTICS?
- Measuring density of populations is a difficult task.
- Demography is the study of factors that affect population density and dispersion
patterns.
- Life history traits are products of natural selection
- Life histories are highly diverse, but they exhibit patterns in their variability.
What factors contribute to the evolution of semelparity versus iteroparity? In other words,
how much does an individual gain in reproductive success through one pattern versus the
other?
The critical factor is survival rate of the offspring. When the survival of offspring is low, as in
highly variable or unpredictable environments, big-bang reproduction (semelparity) is favored.
Repeated reproduction (iteroparity) is favored in dependable environments where competition
for resources is intense. In such environments, a few, well-provisioned offspring have a better
chance of surviving to reproductive age.
- Limited resources mandate trade-offs between investment in reproduction and
survival.
- The exponential model describes population growth in an idealized, unlimited
environment
- Change in population size = Births during - Deaths during time interval
Using mathematical notation, we can express this relationship more concisely: If N
represents population size, and t represents time, then δN is the change is population size
and, t is the time interval. We can rewrite the verbal equation as:
δN/δt = B - D where B is the number of births and D is the number of deaths.
We can convert this simple model into one in which births and deaths are expressed as the
average number of births and deaths per individual during the specified time period.
- Now we will revise the population growth equation, using per capita birth and death
rates: δN/δt = bN – Mn
- Using the per capita rate of increase, we rewrite the equation for change in population
size as:
δN/δt = rN
- Ecologists use differential calculus to express population growth as growth rate at a
particular instant in time:
dN/dt = rN
- The equation for exponential population growth is:
dN/dt = rmaxN
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The logistic growth model includes the concept of carrying capacity

- Typically, resources are limited. As population density increases, each individual has
access to an increasingly smaller share of available resources. Ultimately, there is a limit
to the number of individuals that can occupy a habitat. Ecologists define carrying
capacity (K) as the maximum stable population size that a particular environment can
support. Carrying capacity is not fixed but varies over space and time with the abundance
of limiting resources. Energy limitation often determines carrying capacity, although
other factors, such as shelters, refuges from predators, soil nutrients, water, and suitable
nesting sites can be limiting. If individuals cannot obtain sufficient resources to
reproduce, the per capita birth rate b will decline. If they cannot find and consume
enough energy to maintain themselves, the per capita death rate m may increase. A
decrease in b or an increase in m results in a lower per capita rate of increase r. We can
modify our mathematical model to incorporate changes in growth rate as the population
size nears the carrying capacity. In the logistic population growth model, the per capita
rate of increase declines as carrying capacity is reached. Mathematically, we start with
the equation for exponential growth, adding an expression that reduces the rate of
increase as N increases. If the maximum sustainable population size (carrying capacity) is
K, then K? N is the number of additional individuals the environment can accommodate
and (K? N)/K is the fraction of K that is still available for population growth.By
multiplying the intrinsic rate of increase rmax by (K ? N)/K, we modify the growth rate
of the population as N increases.
dN/dt = rmaxN((K ? N)/K)
- When N is small compared to K, the term (K? N)/K is large, and the per capita rate of
increase is close to the intrinsic rate of increase. When N is large and approaches K,
resources are limiting. In this case, the term (K? N)/K is small and so is the rate of
population growth. Population growth is greatest when the population is approximately
half of the carrying capacity. At this population size, there are many reproducing
individuals, and the per capita rate of increase remains relatively high. The logistic model
of population growth produces a sigmoid (S-shaped) growth curve when N is plotted over
time. New individuals are added to the population most rapidly at intermediate
population sizes, when there is not only a breeding population of substantial size, but also
lots of available space and other resources in the population. Population growth rate
slows dramatically as N approaches K. How well does the logistic model fit the growth of
real populations? The growth of laboratory populations of some organisms fits an S-
shaped curve fairly well.
- These populations are grown in a constant environment without predators or competitors.
Some of the assumptions built into the logistic model do not apply to all populations. The
logistic model assumes that populations adjust instantaneously and approach the carrying
capacity smoothly. In most natural populations, there is a lag time before the negative
effects of increasing population are realized. Populations may overshoot their carrying
capacity before settling down to a relatively stable density. Some populations fluctuate
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greatly, making it difficult to define the carrying capacity. The logistic model assumes
that regardless of population density, an individual added to the population has the same
negative effect on population growth rate.
- Some populations show an Allee effect, in which individuals may have a more difficult
time surviving or reproducing if the population is too small. Animals may not be able to
find mates in the breeding season at small population sizes. A plant may be protected in a
clump of individuals but vulnerable to excessive wind if it stands alone. The logistic
population growth model provides a basis from which we can consider how real
populations grow and can construct more complex models. The model is useful in
conservation biology for estimating how rapidly a particular population might increase in
numbers after it has been reduced to a small size, or for estimating sustainable harvest
rates for fish or wildlife populations.
- The logistic model predicts different per capita growth rates for populations of low or
high density relative to carrying capacity of the environment. At high densities, each
individual has few resources available, and the population grows slowly. At low
densities, per capita resources are abundant, and the population can grow rapidly.
Different life history features are favored under each condition. At high population
density, selection favors adaptations that enable organisms to survive and reproduce with
few resources. Competitive ability and efficient use of resources should be favored in
populations that are at or near their carrying capacity. These are traits associated with
iteroparity. At low population density, adaptations that promote rapid reproduction, such
as the production of numerous, small offspring, should be favored. These are traits
associated with semelparity.
- Ecologists have attempted to connect these differences in favored traits at different
population densities with the logistic model of population growth. Selection for life
history traits that are sensitive to population density is known as K-selection, or density-
dependent selection. K-selection tends to maximize population size and operates in
populations living at a density near K. Selection for life history traits that maximize
reproductive success at low densities is known as r-selection, or density-independent
selection. r-selection tends to maximize r, the rate of increase, and occurs in
environments in which population densities fluctuate well below K, or when individuals
face little competition.
- Laboratory experiments suggest that different populations of the same species may show
a different balance of K-selected and r-selected traits, depending on conditions. Many
ecologists claim that the concepts of r- and K-selection oversimplify the variation seen in
natural populations. Populations are regulated by a complex interaction of biotic and
abiotic influences.
Why do all populations eventually strop growing? What environmental factors stop a
population from growing? Why do some populations show radical fluctuations in size over
time, while others remain relatively stable?
- These questions have practical applications at the core of management programs for
agricultural pests or endangered species. The first step to answering these questions is to
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examine the effects of increased population density on rates of birth, death, immigration,
and emigration. Density-dependent factors have an increased effect on a population as
population density increases. This is a type of negative feedback. Density-independent
factors are unrelated to population density.
Negative feedback prevents unlimited population growth.
Three main hypotheses have been proposed to explain the lynx/hare cycles.
1. The cycles may be caused by food shortage during winter.
2. The cycles may be due to predator-prey interactions.
3. The cycles may be affected by a combination of food resource limitation and excessive
predation.
Human population growth has slowed after centuries of exponential increase
- The concepts of population dynamics can be applied to the specific case of the human
population. It is unlikely that any other population of large animals has ever sustained so
much population growth for so long. The human population increased relatively slowly
until about 1650 when approximately 500 million people inhabited Earth. The Plague
took a large number of lives. Since then, human population numbers have doubled three
times. The global population now numbers more than 6 billion people, and is increasing
by about 73 million each year, or 201,000 people each day. Population ecologists predict
a population of 7.3–8.4 billion people on Earth by the year 2025. Although the global
population is still growing, the rate of growth began to slow approximately. 40 years ago.
The rate of increase in the global population peaked at 2.19% in 1962. By 2003, it had
declined to 1.16%. Current models project a decline in overall growth rate to just over
0.4% by 2050. Human population growth has departed from true exponential growth,
which assumes a constant rate. The declines are the result of fundamental changes in
population dynamics due to diseases and voluntary population control. To maintain
population stability, a regional human population can exist in one of 2 configurations:
Zero population growth = High birth rates - High death rates.
Zero population growth = Low birth rates - Low death rates.
- The movement from the first toward the second state is called the demographic transition.
After 1950, mortality rates declined rapidly in most developing countries. Birth rates
have declined in a more variable manner. In the developed nations, populations are near
equilibrium, with reproductive rates near the replacement level. In many developed
nations, the reproductive rates are in fact below replacement level. These populations will
eventually decline if there is no immigration and no change in birth rate. Most population
growth is concentrated in developing countries, where 80% of the world’s people live. A
unique feature of human population growth is the ability to control it with family
planning and voluntary contraception. Reduced family size is the key to the demographic
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transition. Delayed marriage and reproduction help to decrease population growth rates
and move a society toward zero population growth.
- However, there is disagreement among world leaders as to how much support should be
provided for global family planning efforts. One important demographic variable is a
country’s age structure. Age structure is shown as a pyramid showing the percentage of
the population at each age. Age structure differs greatly from nation to nation. Age
structure diagrams can predict a population’s growth trends and can point to future social
conditions. Infant mortality, the number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births, and life
expectancy at birth, the predicted average length of life at birth, also vary widely among
different human populations. These differences reflect the quality of life faced by
children at birth.
The following points highlight the two main types of population growth curves.
The types are: 1. J – Shaped Curve 2. S – Shaped or Sigmoid Curve.
Type # 1. J – Shaped Curve:
In the case of J-shaped growth form, the population grows exponentially, and after attaining the
peak value, the population may abruptly crash. This increase in population is continued till large
amount of food materials exist in the habitat.
After some time, due to increase in population size, food supply in the habitat becomes limited
which ultimately results in decrease in population size. For example, many insect populations
show explosive increase in numbers during the rainy season, followed by their disappearance at
the end of the season. The following equation exhibits J-shaped growth:
dN/dt = rN
Here dN/dt represents rate of change in population size, r is biotic potential and N stands for
population size.
Type # 2. S – Shaped or Sigmoid Curve:
When a few organisms are introduced in an area, the population increase is very slow in the
beginning, i.e., positive acceleration phase or lag phase, in the middle phase, the population
increase becomes very rapid, i.e., logarithmic phase, and finally in the last phase the population
increase is slowed down, i.e., negative acceleration phase, until an equilibrium is attained around
which the population size fluctuates according to variability of environment.
The level beyond which no major increase can occur is referred to as saturation level or carrying
capacity (K). In the last phase the new organisms are almost equal to the number of dying
individuals and thus there is no more increase in population size.
The S-shaped sigmoid growth form is represented by the following equation:
dN/dt = rN (K – N/K) = rN (1 – N/K)
where, dN/dt is the rate of change in population size,
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r is biotic potential
N is population size,
K – N/K or 1 – (N/K) is for environmental resistance.

Figure 1: Population Growth Curves. A. J-Shaped; B. S-Shaped (Sigmoid) curve. K stands for carrying capacity.

LIMITING FACTORS
Density-dependent population regulation: When population ecologists discuss the growth of a
population, it is through the lens of factors that are density-dependent or density-independent.
Density-dependent population regulation describes a scenario in which a population’s density
affects its growth rate and mortality. Density-dependent regulation tends to be more biotic.
For example, competition within and between species for resources, diseases, predation and
waste buildup all represent density-dependent factors. The density of available prey would also
affect the population of predators, causing them to move or potentially starve.
Density-independent population regulation: In contrast, density-independent population
regulation refers to natural (physical or chemical) factors that affect mortality rates. In other
words, mortality is influenced without density being taken into account.
These factors tend to be catastrophic, such as natural disasters (e.g., wildfires and earthquakes).
Pollution, however, is a manmade density-independent factor that affects many species. Climate
crisis is another example.
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Topic 2: Human Population Dynamics

Human population trends are centrally important to environmental science because they help to
determine the environmental impact of human activities. Rising populations put increasing
demands on natural resources such as land, water, and energy supplies. As human communities
use more resources, they generate contaminants, such as air and water pollution and greenhouse
gas emissions, along with increasing quantities of waste.
Population interacts with several other factors to determine a society’s environmental impact.
One widely cited formula is the “I = PAT” equation, proposed by Paul R. Ehrlich and John P.
Holdren in 1974.
Environmental Impact = Population x Affluence (or consumption) x Technology
For generations people have tried to estimate Earth’s carrying capacity, or the maximum
population that it can support on a continuing basis. This is a slippery undertaking. Estimates of
human carrying capacity over the past four centuries have varied from less than one billion
people to more than one trillion, depending on how the authors defined carrying capacity. Some
studies cast the issue solely in terms of food production, others as the availability of a broader set
of resources.
In fact, the question depends on assumptions about human preferences. What standard of living
is seen as acceptable, and what levels of risk and variability in living conditions will people
tolerate? Many of these issues are not just matters of what humans want; rather, they intersect
with physical limits, such as total arable land or the amount of energy available to do work. In
such instances nature sets bounds on human choices (footnote 2).
Measuring Earth’s carrying capacity at the global level obscures the fact that resources are not
allocated equally around the world. In some areas such as the Sahel in West Africa (the transition
zone between the Sahara Desert and more humid woodlands to the south), population growth is
putting heavy stresses on a fragile environment, so food needs are outstripping food production.
Demography, the science of human population (or more specifically, the study of population
structure and processes), draws together research from a number of disciplines, including
economics, sociology, geography, public health, and genetics. In addition to the environmental
impacts of population growth, population science also considers questions such as:
• How does population growth or decline influence economic and social well-
being?
• Does population growth enhance or diminish economic growth?
• What impact does population growth have on poverty?
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• Do specific aspects of population growth, such as age structure or sex imbalance,

have bigger impacts on economic development and environmental quality than
other aspects?
• What are the social and economic implications of population redistribution,
through, for example, rural to urban or international migration?
This unit discusses basic population dynamics, including birth and death rates and factors that
influence demographic change. It then summarizes the history of world population growth and
projections through mid-century, with a focus on rising urbanization and the aging of the global
population. Next, we examine the environmental, economic, and institutional implications of
population growth and some actions that governments can take to maximize benefits from
population growth and limit harmful impacts. Finally, we consider whether nations’
demographic patterns are becoming more similar, in spite of their different historic, cultural, and
economic legacies, taking note of some regions that do not fit this general pattern.
2.1 Mathematics of Population Growth
Population experts can make demographic predictions with more confidence than many other
social scientists. Several basic truths apply to the demographics of all human societies:
• Everyone who is alive one year from now will be one year older at that time than
s/he is today.
• Ages 15 to 49 are humans’ prime childbearing years, biologically speaking
(although resource constraints and social and political factors shape childbearing
decisions differently from one country to another).
• Human mortality is relatively high among infants, children, and adults over age
60, and relatively low at other parts of the life cycle.
Putting these observations together, population analysts can develop a reasonably accurate map
of how a society’s population size, births, deaths, and age structure are likely to evolve in the
next several decades.
Birth and death rates are the most important determinants of population growth; in some
countries, net migration is also important in this regard. To calculate population growth rates,
demographers take the difference between births and deaths in a given time period, add the net
number of migrants (which for the world as a whole is 0), and divide that number by the total
population. For example, there are now about 136 million births and 58 million deaths
worldwide annually, adding a net of 78 million new inhabitants to a global population of 6.7
billion, a growth rate of nearly 1.2 percent.
Until the mid-19th century birth rates were only slightly higher than death rates, so the human
population grew very slowly. The industrial era changed many factors that affected birth and
death rates, and in doing so, it triggered a dramatic expansion of the world’s population.
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This phased reduction in death and birth rates is a process called the demographic transition,
which alters population growth rates in several stages.

Figure 3: The Demographic Transition

2.2 Determinants of Demographic Change

What factors drive population growth rates?
FERTILITY: One major indicator and determinant of demographic change is fertility, which
demographers express as the total fertility rate, the number of births that can be expected to
occur to a typical woman in a given society during her childbearing years. Fertility is a function
of a woman’s fecundity (her physiological ability to conceive and bear children and of social,
cultural, economic, and health factors that influence reproductive choices in the country in
question. The most important non-physical factors influencing a country’s total fertility rate
include relationship status (the fraction of women who are married or in a relationship that
exposes them to the possibility of becoming pregnant); use of contraception; the fraction of
women who are infecund —for example, because they are breastfeeding a child; and the
prevalence of induced abortion.
Fertility levels are lower in developed countries than in developing nations because more women
in developed countries work outside of the home and tend to marry later and to use contraception
and abortion to delay or prevent childbearing. Nevertheless, fertility rates in nearly all countries
have been falling since the 1950s. Most of the exceptions are in Central and Western Africa.
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Figure 4: Total Fertility Rate

© 2004. United Nations. World Population Prospects.

MORTALITY: It is the second major variable that shapes population trends. A population’s
age structure is an important factor influencing its death rate. Death rates are highest among
infants, young children, and the elderly, so societies with many elderly people are likely to
have more deaths per 1,000 people than those where most citizens are young adults.
Developed countries with good medical services have more people in older age brackets than
developing countries, so the developed societies can have higher death rates even though they
are healthier places to live overall.
To assess longevity in a society, demographers calculate life expectancy—the age that a
newborn would, on average, live to, assuming she were subject to a particular set of age-specific
mortality rates—usually those prevailing in a particular year. The probability that a child will die
at a given age drops through childhood and adolescence after she passes through the vulnerable
early years, then starts to rise gradually in mid-life.
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Life expectancy is trending upward around the world, but a substantial gap remains between
developing and developed countries.

Figure 6: Life Expectancy

© 2004. United Nations. World Population Prospects.

What factors raise life expectancy?

1. Health-related Issues
2. Creating Public Health Infrastructure
3. Migration

2.3 World Population Growth Through History

Human population has grown very slowly for most of its existence on earth. Scientists currently
estimate that modern human beings (Homo sapiens) evolved roughly 130,000 to 160,000 years
ago. Many threats, from diseases to climate fluctuations, kept life expectancy short and death
rates high in pre-industrial society, so it took until 1804 for the human population to reach one
billion. From that point forward, however, population growth accelerated very quickly (Table 1).

Table 1. World population milestones.

WORLD POPULATION YEAR TIME TO ADD 1 BILLION

REACHED
1 billion 1804
2 billion 1927 123 years
3 billion 1960 33 years
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4 billion 1974 14 years

5 billion 1987 13 years
6 billion 1999 12 ears

Major milestones in health and safety

- Improving urban sanitation and waste removal
- Improving the quality of the water supply and expanding access to it
- Forming public health boards to detect illnesses and quarantine the sick
- Researching causes and means of transmission of infectious diseases
- Developing vaccines and antibiotics
- Adopting workplace safety laws and limits on child labor
- Promoting nutrition through steps such as fortifying milk, breads, and cereals with
vitamins.
Why world population growth in the 21st century will be different from previous decades?
- Humans are living longer and having fewer children.
- All population growth will take place in urban areas.
- Fertility rates will continue to decline.
Some observers argue that declining fertility rates in both industrialized and developing
countries will lead to a “birth dearth,” with shrinking populations draining national savings and
reducing tax revenues.
How can societies transition successfully from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and
fertility?
- Promote good health standards
- Expand education
- Opening to international trade
- Support older citizens through retirement
2.4 Population Growth and the Environment
Many people (including national leaders) worry that population growth depletes resources and
can trigger social or economic catastrophe if it is not contained. As discussed in the preceding
section, most of the projected population growth during this century will take place in
developing nations. These countries have faced many challenges in recent decades, including
low levels of education, poor health standards, poverty, scarce housing, natural resource
depletion, wars, and economic and political domination by other countries. In Sub-Saharan
Africa industrial development has stalled and most workers still make a living from subsistence
agriculture.
Countries in this situation generally have devoted less energy to addressing environmental issues
than their wealthier neighbors, so these problems have intensified. Especially in the poorest
countries, therefore, future population growth is likely to make environmental deterioration
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worse (although it does not automatically follow that countries with low population growth rates
will have cleaner environments).
However, the relationship between population and the environment is complex. As noted in
section 1, human societies’ impacts on the environment are a function of three major,
interconnected elements: population size, affluence or consumption, and technology. An
expanded version of the IPAT equation separates technology into two factors: resource-
intensity (how many resources are used to produce each unit of consumption) and waste-
intensity (how much waste each unit of consumption generates), and also considers the
sensitivity of the environment.
Societies’ Environmental Impacts
- We consume resources
- We emit wastes as a product of our consumption activities.
Rising population growth rates in the 1950s spurred worries that developing countries could
deplete their food supplies. Starting with India in 1951, dozens of countries launched family
planning programs with support from international organizations and western governments. As
shown above in Figure 4, total fertility rates in developing countries declined from six children
per woman to three between 1950 and 2000. National programs were particularly effective in
Asia, which accounted for roughly 80 percent of global fertility decline from the 1950s through
2000. It is important to note, however, that this conclusion is controversial. Some researchers
have argued that desired fertility falls as incomes grow—and that family planning has essentially
no independent influence.
These programs sought to speed the demographic transition by convincing citizens that having
large numbers of children was bad for the nation and for individual families. Generally, they
focused on educating married couples about birth control and distributing contraceptives,
but some programs took more coercive approaches. China imposed a limit of one child per
family in 1979, with two children allowed in special cases.
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Topic 3: Population Size and Sustainability

Key Question: WHY POPULATION GROWTH MATTERS FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT?
We are living in an era of unprecedented population growth. Since the middle of the
twentieth century, the world’s population has more than tripled in size, reaching almost 8 billion
people in 2022 (figure 7). Projections by the United Nations suggest that the size of the global
population could grow to almost 11 billion by around 2100. However, the pace of global growth
has slowed considerably since around 1970, and the world’s population is expected to stabilize
by the end of the century.

Figure 7: Global Population Size and Annual Growth Rate: Estimates, 1950-2020, and Projections with
Prediction Intervals, 2020-2100

The unprecedented growth of the global population that has occurred since 1950 is the
result of two trends: on the one hand, the gradual increase in average human longevity due to
widespread improvements in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine, and on the
other hand, the persistence of high levels of fertility in many countries.
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The world’s poorest countries have some of the fastest growing populations: the
population of low-income countries, located mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, is projected almost to
double in size between 2020 and 2050, accounting for most of the global increase expected by
the end of the century.

POPULATION GROWTH IS BOTH A CAUSE AND A SYMPTOM OF SLOW PROGRESS

IN DEVELOPMENT
Sustained, rapid population growth adds to the challenge of achieving social and
economic development and magnifies the scale of the investments and effort required to ensure
that no one is left behind.
Rapid population growth makes it more difficult for low-income and lower-middle-
income countries to afford the increase in public expenditures on a per capita basis that is needed
to eradicate poverty, end hunger and malnutrition, and ensure universal access to health care,
education and other essential services.
Lack of autonomy and opportunity among women and girls can contribute to high
fertility and rapid population growth. Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of
the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, especially targets related to reproductive health,
education and gender equality, requires empowering individuals to make informed choices.
Today, millions of people around the globe, mostly in low-income and lower-middle-
income countries, lack access to the information and services needed to determine whether and
when to have children. In general, women with higher levels of education tend to have greater
autonomy to make these decisions compared to women with no education living in the same
country. Ensuring that individuals, in particular women, have the ability to decide the number of
children that they will have, and the timing of their births can markedly improve well-being and
help to disrupt intergenerational cycles of poverty. Increased access to high-quality reproductive
health-care services, including for safe and effective methods of family planning, could help
reduce fertility and accelerate economic and social development.
A SUSTAINED REDUCTION IN FERTILITY OPENS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH
In addition to driving rapid population growth, continuing high levels of fertility in some
regions have helped to maintain a relatively youthful global age distribution.
From a demographic perspective, a youthful age structure ensures that the global
population will continue to grow even if average fertility drops immediately to the “replacement
level”, at which each generation bears the exact number of children needed to replace itself.
Indeed, fully two thirds of the anticipated increase in global population between 2020 and 2050
will be driven by the momentum of growth embedded in the relatively youthful age distribution
of the world’s population in 2020.
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Figure 8: Contributions Attributable to Four Components of Population Growth from 2020-2050,

Relative to Population Size in 2020, World and Regions

A youthful population presents an opportunity for accelerated economic growth on a per

capita basis, if countries where the population is growing rapidly achieve a substantial and
sustained decline in the fertility level, leading to an increased concentration of the population in
the working-age range. The increased share of population in the working ages can support an
accelerated rise in income per capita, a phenomenon referred to as the “demographic dividend”.
Investments in education and health and the promotion of full and productive
employment for all, including for women, can greatly expand the positive economic impact of a
favorable age structure created by a sustained decline in fertility. However, many countries that
are ready demographically to benefit from the dividend lag in these critical investments.
CHANGES IN POPULATION TRENDS ALONE WILL DO LITTLE TO RESOLVE
UNSUSTAINABLE PATTERNS OF RESOURCE USE
Environmental damage often arises from economic processes that lead to higher
standards of living for the population, especially when the full social and environmental costs,
such as damage from pollution, are not factored into economic decisions about production and
consumption.
Population growth amplifies such pressures by adding to total economic demand.
However, the countries that have been contributing the most to unsustainable patterns of
production and consumption are generally those where income per capita is high and the
population is growing slowly if at all, not those where income per capita is low and the
population is growing rapidly.
Moving the global economy towards greater sustainability will require a progressive
decoupling of the growth in population and in economic activity from a further intensification of
resource extraction, waste generation and environmental damage. Limiting climate change and
global warming, for example, will require rapid progress in decoupling economic activity from
the current overreliance on fossil fuels.
To end poverty and hunger, achieve the SDGs related to health, education and access to
decent work, and build the capacity to address environmental challenges, the economies of low-
income and lower-middle-income countries need to grow much more rapidly than their
populations, requiring greatly expanded investments in infrastructure as well as increased access
to affordable energy and modern technology in all sectors. Wealthy countries and the
international community can help to ensure that these countries receive the necessary technical
and financial assistance so that their economies can grow using technologies that will minimize
future greenhouse gas emissions.
 18

A path towards a more sustainable future requires demographic foresight, which involves
anticipating the nature and consequences of major population shifts before and while they occur
and adopting forward-looking and proactive planning guided by such analysis. In working to
achieve sustainable patterns of consumption and production and to reduce the impacts of human
activity on the environment, it is important to recognize that plausible future trajectories of world
population lie within a relatively narrow range, especially in the short or medium term. Over the
next 30 or 40 years, a slowdown in global population growth that is substantially faster than
anticipated in the United Nations projections seems highly unlikely. Even though the pace of
global population growth will continue to decline in the coming decades, world population is
likely to be between 20 and 30 per cent larger in 2050 than in 2020.
Achieving sustainability, therefore, will depend critically on humanity’s capacity and
willingness to increase resource efficiency in consumption and production and to decouple
economic growth from damage to the environment, with high-income and upper-middle-income
countries taking responsibility and leading by example.

References:
Campbell/Reece Biology, 7th Edition, Pearson Education, Inc. 52-1. Ecology and
Environment, P.D.Sharma, 10th edition, Rastogi publications. https://course-
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http://www.biologydiscussion.com/population/population-growth/population-
growth-curvesecology/51854
Global Carbon Project (2021). Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2021
(Version 1.0) Dataset. Global Carbon Project. Available at
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Ritchie, Hannah, and others (2021). Our World in Data. CO2 and Greenhouse Gas
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November 2021.
United Nations (2019). World Population Prospects 2019, Online Edition. Available at
https://population.un.org/wpp/. Accessed on 15 October 2020.