UTS Ekonomi 3 Combineppt
UTS Ekonomi 3 Combineppt
UTS Ekonomi 3 Combineppt
GREGORY MANKIW
Principle 8: A Country’s Standard of Living Depends on Its Ability to Produce Goods and Services
• Large differences in living standards: Among countries )Average annual income, 2014: $55,000 (U.S.); $17,000 (Mexico);
$13,000 (China); $6,000 (Nigeria). Over time: In the U.S. incomes have historically grown about 2% per year
• Explanation: differences in productivity
• Productivity: –Quantity of goods and services produced from each unit of labor input -Higher productivity –Growth rate of
nation’s productivity to determines growth rate of its average income.
Principle 10: Society Faces a Short-Run Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment
• Short-run effects of monetary injections: –Stimulates the overall level of spending and the demand for goods and services
–Firms raise prices, hire more workers, produce more goods and services –Lower unemployment
• Short-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation: –Over a period of a year or two, many economic policies push
inflation and unemployment in opposite directions –Key role – analysis of business cycle.
• Business cycle
–Fluctuations in economic activity
–Such as employment and production
MEASURING A NATION’S INCOME
• Microeconomics: Study of how households and firms (• Make decisions • Interact in markets)
• Macroeconomics: Study of economy-wide phenomena (• Including inflation, unemployment, and economic growth)
• The GDP deflator: Ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP times 100 is 100 for the base year. –Measures the current level of
prices relative to the level of prices in the baseyear –Can be used to take inflation out of nominal GDP (“deflate” nominal
GDP)
• Inflation: Economy’s overall price level is rising
• Inflation rate: Percentage change in some measure of the price level from one period to the next
• The GDP data: –Real GDP grows over time (• The real GDP of the U.S. economy in 2015 was more than four times its
1965 level • Growth – average 3% per year since 1965) –Growth is not steady (GDP growth interrupted by recessions)
• Recession: –Two consecutive quarters of falling GDP –Real GDP declines –Lower income –Rising unemployment
–Falling profits – Increased bankruptcies
GDP
• GDP – “the single best measure of the economic well-being of a society”
–Economy’s total income
–Economy’s total expenditure
–Larger GDP (• Good life, better healthcare • Better educational systems)
–Measure our ability to obtain many of the inputs into a worthwhile life
• GDP – not a perfect measure of well- being: –Doesn’t include (Leisure, Value of almost all activity that takes place outside
markets, Quality of the environment) –Nothing about distribution of income
• Rich countries — higher GDP per person: –Better (Life expectancy, Literacy, Internet usage)
• Poor countries — lower GDP per person: –Worse (• Life expectancy • Literacy • Internet usage
• Low GDP per person
–More infants with low birth weight
–Higher rates of infant mortality
–Higher rates of maternal mortality
–Higher rates of child malnutrition
–Less common access to safe drinking water
–Fewer school-age children are actually in School
• Low GDP per person
–Fewer teachers per student
–Fewer televisions
–Fewer telephones
–Fewer paved roads
–Fewer households with electricity
6. Inflation rate : percentage change in the price index from the preceding period
7. Core CPI : measure of the overall cost of consumer goods and services excluding food and energy
8. Producer price index, PPI : measure of the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms, changes in PPI
are often thought to be useful in predicting changes in CPI
A price index such as the CPI: measures the price level and thus determines the size of the inflation correction
The cost of living varies: not only over time, but also over geography
Regional price parities: measure variation in the cost of living from state to state
Regional differences explained by: prices of goods (small part), prices of services (larger part), hosuing services
(persistently large)
2. Indexation
Automatic correction by law or contract of a dollar amount for the effect of inflation, COLA: Cost of living
allowance
Real and Nominal Interest Rates
1. Nominal interest rate: interest rate as usually reported without a correction for the eefcts of inflation
2. Real interest rate: interest rate corrected for the effects of inflation
= nominal interest rate – inflation rate
3. Nominal interest rate: always exceeds the real interest rate, U.S. economy has experienced rising consumer prices
inn every year
4. Inflation is variable: real and nominal interest rated do not always move together
5. Periods of deflation: real interest rate exceeds the nominal interest rate
Trade Balances and Trade Negotiations “A typical country can increase its citizens’ welfare by enacting policies that would
increase its trade surplus (or decrease its trade deficit).”
“An important reason why many workers in Michigan and Ohio have lost jobs in recent years is because US presidential
administrations over the past 30 years have not been tough enough in trade negotiations.”
Prices for International Transactions
• Nominal exchange rate: Rate at which a person can trade currency of one country for currency of another. Example:
Exchange rate = 80 yen per dollar
• Appreciation (strengthen): Increase in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy,
buy more foreign currency.
• Example: dollar appreciation: Exchange rate (old) = 80 yen per dollar, Exchange rate (new) = 90 yen per dollar, (Yen
depreciation)
• Depreciation (weaken): Decrease in the value of a currency As measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy, buy
less foreign currency. Example: dollar depreciation: Exchange rate (old) = 80 yen per dollar, Exchange rate (new) = 70 yen
per dollar, (Yen appreciation)
• Real exchange rate: Rate at which a person can trade goods and services of one country for goods and services of another
Limitations of PPP
• Theory of purchasing-power parity does not always hold in practice: 1. Many goods are not easily traded 2. Even tradable
goods are not always perfect substitutes. When they are produced in different countries, there is noo opportunity for
profitable arbitrage
• Purchasing-power parity: Not a perfect theory of exchange-rate determination, Real exchange rates fluctuate over time
• Large and persistent movements in nominal exchange rates: Typically reflect changes in price levels at home and abroad
• Data on a basket of goods consisting of “Two all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions, on a sesame
seed bun” • “Big Mac” - sold by McDonald’s around the world
• January 2019: The price of a Big Mac was $5.58 in the United States
• According to purchasing power parity: –Cost of “Big Mac” – same in both countries –Predicted exchange rate = Price in
foreign country (in foreign currency) divided by price in U.S.
• Predicted and actual exchange rates: Are not exactly the same reasonable first approximation