Science and Medicine in Football

ISSN: 2473-3938 (Print) 2473-4446 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rsmf20

Complexity in the beautiful game: implications for

football research and practice

Paul M. Salmon & Scott McLean

To cite this article: Paul M. Salmon & Scott McLean (2019): Complexity in the beautiful
game: implications for football research and practice, Science and Medicine in Football, DOI:
10.1080/24733938.2019.1699247

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/24733938.2019.1699247

Accepted author version posted online: 27

Nov 2019.

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Publisher: Taylor & Francis & Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

Journal: Science and Medicine in Football

DOI: 10.1080/24733938.2019.1699247

Complexity in the beautiful game: implications for football research

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and practice

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Paul M. Salmon1* & Scott McLean1

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Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems,
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University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4558, Australia

*Corresponding author, psalmon@usc.edu.au

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Abstract

Like many other sports, football is increasingly being described as a complex system. To date,

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however, there has been little explanation of complexity beyond the team level, and no

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formal examination of the extent to which the known characteristics of complex systems are

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present in football. This commentary reviews known characteristics of complex systems and

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discusses the extent to which football match, club, and league sub-systems exhibit them. It

is argued that all three football sub-systems do indeed exhibit the characteristics of
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complexity, and as such it is concluded that football can be described as a complex system.

The implications for future football research and practice are discussed. Applications of
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complex systems modelling techniques are encouraged, both to model football systems and
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to identify how different systemic variables interact to influence performance. A paradigm

shift away from reductionism toward holism in football research is advocated.

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Keywords: Complexity, Football, Systems thinking, Emergence, Modelling

Introduction
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Complexity science is the discipline concerned with attempting to understand and respond

to problems that are dynamic and unpredictable, multi-dimensional, and comprise various

interrelated components. To do so, complexity scientists seek to understand systems in

terms of their components, their interrelations, and the resulting emergent behaviours. This

involves the use of both quantitative and qualitative modelling techniques with the unit of

analysis often representing the broader system in which the behaviours of interest occur.
Complexity is currently receiving increasing attention in sport science circles. The adoption

of a ‘complex systems approach’ has been postulated as a critical requirement in areas such

as sports injury prevention (Bittencourt et al., 2016; Hulme et al., 2018), sports performance

analysis (McLean et al., 2017), coaching (Soltanzadeh & Mooney, 2016), and sports science

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generally (Davids et al., 2013; McGarry et al., 2002; Mooney et al., 2018). Protagonists argue

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that, without the adoption of such an approach, it is not possible to fully understand the

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myriad factors influencing behaviour, and thus it is not possible to introduce appropriate

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and effective interventions designed to improve performance.
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Similar arguments are emerging in the football science literature (Araújo & Davids, 2016;

McLean et al., 2017; Siefart & Davids, 2015; Silva et al., 2016; Stockl et al., 2017; Vilar et al.,
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2013). Indeed, there is a growing body of research that has attempted to identify and assess

complex player and team behaviours (e.g. Araújo & Davids, 2016; Duarte et al., 2013; Silva
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et al., 2016). Ecological dynamics, for example, has been proposed as a framework for
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describing and understanding some of the emergent properties of football teams (Araújo &

Davids, 2016), whereas dynamical systems theory has been used to model player movement
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and performance (Davids et al., 2005).

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Whilst such applications incorporate elements of complexity theory, and are both insightful

and useful, there are limitations from a complexity science point of view. Most of the

analyses undertaken to date have only extended to the team or game level, without

consideration of the broader football ‘system’ in which games are undertaken. Further, not

all aspects of complexity are considered. In fact, there has been little consideration of
whether football exhibits all of the known characteristics of complex systems (e.g. Cilliers,

1998; Holland, 2014; Skyttner, 2005). Finally, whilst approaches for studying selected

complex properties of players and teams are available, there is little guidance on what the

adoption of a complex systems approach in football requires in terms of analytical

approaches, study designs, and data. This commentary is a response to these gaps. First, we

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review the known characteristics of complexity and assess the extent to which football

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systems exhibit them. Second, following confirmation that football systems are complex, we

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discuss the implications for future football research and practice.

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Complex systems
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Complexity is both elusive and difficult to define (Cilliers, 1998); however, various authors

have outlined the characteristics exhibited by complex systems (e.g. Cilliers 1998; Holland,
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2014; Skyttner 2005; von Bertalanffy 1975). For the present commentary, we use the

following set of widely accepted characteristics outlined by Cilliers (1998):

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1. Complex systems comprise multiple components. According to Cilliers, complex systems

comprise many components that interact dynamically with one another. A large number of
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components is necessary but is not sufficient – dynamic interactions between components

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are required (Cilliers, 1998);

2. Interactions between components are multiple, rich, and non-linear. Interactions between

components are abundant and can be non-linear in nature, meaning that there is

asymmetry between input and output, and small events can produce large outcomes and

vice versa (Dekker, 2011). Emergent properties arising from interactions mean that “the

action of the whole is more than the sum of its parts” (Holland, 2014, p. 2). Holland (2014)
explains emergence by discussing the ‘wetness’ of water. Wetness is not something that can

be assigned to individual water molecules, rather it is an emergent property arising from the

interaction of water molecules. A goal scored in football, for example, is an emergent

property of the interaction between players, the ball, pitch, and goalposts, among others;

3. Interactions are short-range in nature. Cilliers (1998) describes how information received

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by components mainly derives from neighbouring components and how long-range

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interactions are limited. However, as components often interact with many another

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components, it is possible to influence non-neighbouring components through just a few

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interactions;

4. There are recurrent loops in the interactions. The effect of an activity can feedback onto
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itself either directly or through other components. These feedback loops can be positive or

negative, and both are necessary;

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5. Complex systems are open systems. According to Cilliers complex systems are open

systems. This means that it is difficult to define their boundary and that they interact with,
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and influence their environment whilst being influenced by their environment in return;
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6. Components are ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole. Components within

the system are ignorant in that they respond only to local information and do not fully
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comprehend the behaviour of the overall system or the effects of their actions on the
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behaviour of the overall system.

7. Complex systems are dynamic and do not operate in a state of equilibrium. According to

Cilliers (1998) constant inputs need to be made by components at all times in order to keep

the system functioning. Without these constant inputs, the system is no longer able to

function;
8. Complex systems have a history. Cilliers argues that complex systems have a history or

path dependence. Their past is co-responsible for their present behaviour in that decisions

and actions made previously (even many years previously) influence the here and now. This

characteristic is referred to by others as sensitive dependence on initial conditions (Dekker,

2011).

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Complexity in Football

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One of the central considerations when attempting to understand behaviour in complex

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systems is that the system should be taken as the unit of analysis, rather than the individual

components within it (Ottino, 2003). A ‘system of systems’ approach can also be taken,
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whereby the broader ‘super system’ is decomposed into its constituent component systems

that are managed independently and represent large-scale systems in their own right
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(Harvey & Stanton, 2014; Maier, 1998). For the present commentary, we adopted a system

of systems approach to consider whether the following football systems are indeed complex
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in nature: football ‘match’ systems; football ‘club’ systems; and football ‘league’ systems.
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These three sub-systems were chosen as they represent meaningful sub-systems which go

beyond the typical focus of football performance analysis on individual and team
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performance. Further applications which go beyond these sub-systems to consider broader

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football systems are also recommended.

Table 1 presents each of Cilliers (1998) characteristics of complex systems along with

examples of each to demonstrate their potential existence in each of the three football

systems. It should be noted that the examples presented in Table 1 are based on the

opinions of the authors, and that the majority have not yet been confirmed by studies
exploring complexity in football. Whilst studies such as McLean et al. (2017) have confirmed

some of the match level characteristics, most of the features described in Table 1 require

confirmation through further empirical research.

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****INSERT TABLE 1 HERE****
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Conclusion
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By considering accepted features of complex systems (Cilliers, 1998) and identifying their

presence in football, this commentary has confirmed that football and its core sub-systems
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of matches, football clubs, and football leagues are indeed complex systems. This is not

surprising, but nonetheless is a confirmation that is required prior to applying complex

systems approaches in football. The implications for football research and practice are

profound.
First, the acceptance that football is complex requires the concomitant acceptance that

performance, whether at the team, match, club, or league level, cannot be understood by

studying components in isolation (McLean et al., 2017; Ottino, 2003). In the match context,

for example, studying parts in isolation may provide useful information, but it will not

enable one to fully understand performance, particularly emergent behaviours. This is

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concerning when one considers the typically reductionist approach of performance analysis

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methods whereby the match is decomposed into components and their performance is

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measured (e.g. distance ran, successful passes, tackles, shots, corners, fouls). A paradigm

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shift toward complexity and systems thinking in football performance analysis is therefore

required, and the use of appropriate methods should drive this shift. Although others have
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made the call for a complex systems approach it has not yet penetrated football research

and practice in a meaningful way. Further work is therefore required to develop new more
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quantitative and qualitative measures that focus on the interactions between match

components rather than the components themselves.

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Second, there is pressing need for research that attempts to model and understand football

systems, as opposed to merely teams and even games. Sydney Dekker, a pioneer of
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complexity science within safety research, talks of the importance of ‘going up and out’ to
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examine the broader system, as opposed to going down and in to focus on components

(Dekker, 2011). There is a pressing requirement for football research to go up and out to

describe and analyse football systems. Thankfully, various complex systems modelling

approaches exist and have been used extensively elsewhere. These include both

quantitative and qualitative modelling approaches such as systems dynamics (Sterman,

2000), Agent-Based Modelling (Bonabeau, 2002), Cognitive Work Analysis (Vicente, 1999),
the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork (Stanton et al., 2018), recurrence plots (Stockl et

al., 2017), the Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (Leveson, 2004), dynamical

systems modelling, and network analysis. Indeed, these approaches are beginning to be

applied in football and other sporting contexts (e.g. Holmes et al., 2019; Hulme et al., 2018;

2019; McLean et al., 2017, 2019; Stockl et al., 2017). Further applications with a focus on

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broader football systems such as the club and league systems described here are

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encouraged.

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Third, the requirement to consider the overall football system creates a pressing need for

further research examining how factors across football systems influence player, coach, club,
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and ultimately match behaviour. Whilst various studies have investigated the factors, both

on and off the field, that influence football club performance, none have attempted to
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understand how these variables interact with one another to create emergent behaviours.

These include factors related to players (e.g. skill, fitness levels, injuries, personal lives),
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coaches and support staff (e.g. skill, experience), coaching and training programs, the club
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(e.g. finances, transfers, quality of staff, marketing and merchandising, culture and ethos,

academy), sponsors, other clubs, supporters, the football association, and relevant
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international teams. Research is required to help understand how these factors dynamically
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interact with one another to either optimise or inhibit performance. It should also be noted

that, whilst football performance is one important line of inquiry, these approaches should

be used to explore other football issues such as injury, talent identification and

development, coaching, player health and wellbeing, and corruption to name only a few.
To close, it is our view that there is much to learn regarding the behaviour and composition

of complex football systems. As a relatively young science, it is important for scrutiny to be

placed on our methods, and on the analyses we produce. A critical requirement moving

forward is the development of analytical methods that can cope with complexity whilst at

the same time providing useful outputs for practitioners. By confirming that the beautiful

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game is indeed complex, and through delineating some initial research requirements, we

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hope to encourage this through a paradigm shift that results in applications of complexity

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science to understand and ultimately optimise football systems.

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 Table 1. Complexity characteristics in football
Characteristic of Presence in ‘match’ system Presence in ‘club’ system Presence in ‘football league’ system
complex systems
Multiple interacting The match system comprises multiple interacting components, The football club system comprises multiple interacting The football league system comprises multiple interacting
components including players, coaches, the ball, equipment (e.g. boots, components, including the playing squad, coaches, high components, including clubs, football association and governing
shin pads), referees, linesmen, spectators, pitch, stadium, GPS performance staff, training facilities and equipment, bodies, players association, referees association, coaching
trackers, nutritional supplements, Video Assistant Referee finances, club sponsors, player agents, a board, transfers, curriculum, laws of the game, broadcasters, league sponsors,
(VAR), physios, the rules, playing time etc. stadium and pitch, club policies and procedures, contracts, international team and coaches etc
scouts, youth academy, rules and regulations etc.
Components interact Players interact with many other components during a match, Players interact with many other components within the Clubs interact with many other components within the football
with multiple including the ball, team members, opposition players, their club system, including high performance staff, the coaches, league system, including other clubs, player agents, football

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components coaches, performance staff, the referee and linesmen, the other players, agents, sponsors, training equipment and associations and governing bodies, club sponsors, broadcasters

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crowd etc. facilities etc. international team coaches etc.
Non-linear Small events during a match can produce large outcomes that Small events at the club level can produce large outcomes Small events at the football league level can produce large
interactions influence match outcome e.g. that influence club functioning e.g. outcomes that influence society e.g.
- a defender’s simple but under hit pass back to the - the introduction of a new training and - the introduction of a new transfer policy which allows

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goalkeeper can lead to the opposition intercepting conditioning regime can lead to multiple injuries multiple foreign players can have a detrimental effect

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the ball and scoring to win the match; which in turn can lead to the club being on youth player development and career progression
- a simple tactical switch or substitution can change relegated; in the club’s own country;
the nature of the match and its outcome; - the introduction of a new player can have either - the introduction of a new youth academy policy can
- an injury to a key player can change the course of a a dramatic positive or detrimental effect on lead to improved success in national and international

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match, including tactics, player mindset, confidence team performance and morale, which in turn can competitions;
and ultimately the result. impact overall club performance; - allowing gambling advertising during matches can lead
to an increase in gambling addiction in society.
Emergent properties Emergent properties arise during the match as a result of Emergent properties arise at the club level as a result of Emergent properties arise at the league level as a result of

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interactions between match components e.g. interactions between club components e.g. interactions between league components e.g.
- injury is an emergent property that arises from the - Winning the title or being relegated is an - Changes in youth development strategies may be
interactions between players, the ball, the pitch, emergent property that arises from the initiated due to the interaction of various factors such
weather etc interactions between multiple club components; as a poorly performing national side, a lack of home

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- Goals are an emergent property that arise form - Financial difficulties arise based on the grown players playing in the top tier, and an increase
interactions between match components such as interaction of components such as team in foreign players;

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players (from both teams), the ball, the pitch, performance, transfer policy, sponsors, and
ticket and merchandise sales
- Corruption or unethical conduct may arise due to
financial and production pressures
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Open systems The match boundary is difficult to define, with the audience The club boundary is extremely difficult to define. Football The Football league boundary is extremely difficult to define as it
often spread globally and external components such as clubs have a significant impact on their local environment is intertwined with many local, national and global systems.
weather and community morale impacting the match. The through community morale and the economy. Likewise, the Football leagues can have a significant impact on its host country
match has a significant effect on its audience, and the local community can have a significant impact on football through the economy and morale e.g.
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audience in situ can have a significant effect on the match and clubs, their performance, and their finances e.g. - an exciting and close-run competition can have
players, coaches and officials e.g. - through protests the community can dictate dramatic effects on the economy through
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- a coach making a tactical change based on decision making such as coach selection and broadcasting, ticket and merchandise sales etc;
encouragement from the crowd; removal; - the success of the national team can create a feel-
- a match official sending off a player due to pressure - purchasing or not purchasing season tickets, good factor which has subsequent effects in the
from the crowd; match tickets, and club merchandise has a community, in work, and ultimately the economy.
- the crowd becoming more vocal due to significant impact on club finances
performance of their team.
 Table 1. Complexity characteristics in football (Cont’d)
Characteristic of Presence in ‘match’ system Presence in ‘club’ system Presence in ‘football league’ system
complex systems
Ignorance of system During the match players may only respond to local Most players and supporters are likely unaware of the inner Most players and coaches are likely unaware of the inner
components information and they do not understand the behaviour of the workings and composition of their football club. With a workings and composition of the football league that they play in.
match system as a whole e.g. a player man-marking an focus on their the team’s performance, players and With a focus on team performance, players and coaches are
opposition player will respond to information from that player supporters are unlikely to appreciate the breadth of unlikely to appreciate the breadth of activities being undertaken
and will understand their actions, but may not understand the activities being undertaken and are often not involved in and are often not party to many of them. They are also unlikely
behaviour of the overall match system many of them. They are also unlikely to understand the to understand the behaviour of the overall league system
behaviour of the overall club system.
Continuous inputs Without continuous inputs from match components such as Without continuous inputs from club components, it is not Without continuous inputs from all of its components, it would

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the players, coaches, and officials the match system cannot possible for the football club system to operate. For not be possible for the football league system to operate. For

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function. For example, without continuous inputs from match example, without continuous inputs from various staff example, without input from clubs, fixtures would not be fulfilled.
officials, the laws of the match cannot be enacted, and the regarding management of club finances, coaching, player Further, without financial inputs from major sponsors and
match cannot be played. transfers, injury management, ticket and merchandise sales, broadcasters, the league system would not be financially viable.
and match organisation and management, the football club

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would be unable to fulfil their fixtures.

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History and path Decisions, actions, and events that occur at the start of a Decisions and actions made previously in a football clubs’ Decisions and actions made previously in a football leagues
dependence match influence and often dictate the remainder of the match. history have a significant impact on present day behaviour. history have a significant impact on present day behaviour. For
For example: For example: example:
- an early goal will influence both team’s tactics and - Contractual arrangements regarding bonus - A salary cap introduced in the formative years of a

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the nature of the match following the goal; payments based on number of games that a league influences clubs player recruitment and squad
- Refereeing decisions influence how the match is player plays can lead to players not being composition and impacts the quality of player playing
played in the aftermath e.g. a failure to caution a selected for games in order to limit financial within the league;
player following a foul can lead to an increase in expenditure; - Transfer windows influence club behaviour and

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aggressive tackling, whereas a caution or sending - Player salaries organised in contracts years recruitment both throughout the playing season and
off can lead to a reduction in such tactics; previously can prevent the purchase of new in the off-season;
- Aggressive tactics from the opposition in the players and require the sale of established - The Bosman ruling, introduced in 1995, has since had
opening interchanges dictates the nature of the players or talented youth players; a significant impact on player transfers and contracts

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match and its outcome and creates unforeseen - Club ethos and culture has a major influence on within European football leagues;
tactical changes. the functioning of the club, player and coach - The fixture list generated in pre-season dictates the

Recurrent loops in
interactions
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The match system comprises recurrent cycles of defensive
possession, attacking possession, and transition phases. How
recruitment, coaching, and tactics.
During the playing season football clubs run on a recurrent
loop of activities alongside club management that includes
matches played throughout the season.
During the playing season the football league runs on a recurrent
loop of activities including fixture generation, transfer windows,
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well a team defends dictates the nature of their attacking play training and coaching, match preparation, match game days, post-match analysis and news etc.
and vice versa. performance, and post-match recovery, analysis, and
review. The performance of the team during matches
The effects of a player’s activities can loop back and influence influences post-match activities which then influence the
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that player’s subsequent activities. For example, passing the performance of the team and so on.
ball can result in the player then moving into space to receive
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the ball and so on.