Enrollment Study

Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow
School Enrollment Projections Series

Johnson Creek School District
February 2010
Contact: Sara Lazenby, sllazenby@wisc.edu, (608) 263-5091

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School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District ii

Table of Contents
Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1
District Enrollment History, 2000-2009 ................................................................................................ 1
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends .......................................................................................................... 7
Birth Trends and Projections ................................................................................................................ 9
Population Estimates and Projections ................................................................................................ 10
Residential Development .................................................................................................................... 15
Methods .............................................................................................................................................. 18
Grade Progression Ratios ................................................................................................................ 18
School Enrollment Projections, 2010-2019 ........................................................................................ 21
4K Enrollment Projections ............................................................................................................... 21
Baseline Projection .......................................................................................................................... 22
5 Year Trend Projection ................................................................................................................... 23
2 Year “Trend” Projection ............................................................................................................... 24
Kindergarten Trend Projection........................................................................................................ 25
Comparison of Projection Models ...................................................................................................... 26
Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 30
School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District iii

Introduction
This report offers a summary of the Enrollment Projection Analysis completed for the Johnson
Creek School District by the Applied Population Laboratory, University of Wisconsin – Madison.
Projections (2010-2019) are provided for the district as a whole, and individually for each grade and
grade grouping. The projection process uses a combination of historical enrollment data, birth trends
and projections, housing starts data, and population trends and projections to create reasonable
assumptions about future growth scenarios and the likely impact on the school district.
District Enrollment History, 2000-2009
Figures 1-A, 1-B, and 1-C and Tables 1 and 2 display data on the last ten years of enrollment history
in the Johnson Creek School District. K-12 district enrollment has grown overall since 2000, from 596
students in 2000/01 to 627 students in 2009/10. This is a growth of 31 students, or a 5.2% increase in
the number of K-12 students enrolled. In addition, in the 2008/09 school year the district began a 4K
program, which has added an additional 50 students to the district each of the past two years. From
the lowest K-12 enrollment in the last decade (2001/02), the district has gained 73 students, or
increased enrollment by 13.2%.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 1

Figure 1-A
Student Enrollment
700
600
500
400
Students
300
200
100
0
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

TABLE 1
Student Enrollment
SCHOOL YEAR
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10
4K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 50
K 54 33 42 35 38 51 44 48 58 55
1 43 47 36 46 35 38 47 42 51 56
2 53 40 46 41 51 39 40 44 49 51
3 46 38 36 51 46 49 43 41 44 51
4 40 46 49 43 51 46 44 45 42 46
5 53 40 47 50 48 52 45 41 46 41
6 39 47 44 46 51 48 52 45 38 47
7 35 39 46 45 50 51 47 49 48 34
8 43 33 36 52 48 50 53 45 49 49
9 44 44 39 38 52 48 51 51 42 51
10 59 43 37 41 35 52 45 49 52 45
11 43 59 45 45 43 35 53 47 48 52
12 44 45 53 45 44 39 32 48 49 49
K-12 596 554 556 578 592 598 596 595 616 627
4K-12 596 554 556 578 592 598 596 595 666 677
K-6 328 291 300 312 320 323 315 306 328 347
7-8 78 72 82 97 98 101 100 94 97 83
9-12 190 191 174 169 174 174 181 195 191 197

TABLE 2
Student Enrollment Changes
ABSOLUTE CHANGE PERCENT CHANGE AVERAGE ANNUAL

PERCENT CHANGE
GRADE '00 to '09 '00 to '04 '05 to '09 '00 to '09 '00 to '04 '05 to '09 '00 to '09 '00 to '04 '05 to '09
K 1 -16 4 1.9 -29.6 7.8 0.2 -7.4 2.0

1 13 -8 18 30.2 -18.6 47.4 3.4 -4.7 11.8
2 -2 -2 12 -3.8 -3.8 30.8 -0.4 -0.9 7.7
3 5 0 2 10.9 0.0 4.1 1.2 0.0 1.0
4 6 11 0 15.0 27.5 0.0 1.7 6.9 0.0
5 -12 -5 -11 -22.6 -9.4 -21.2 -2.5 -2.4 -5.3
6 8 12 -1 20.5 30.8 -2.1 2.3 7.7 -0.5
7 -1 15 -17 -2.9 42.9 -33.3 -0.3 10.7 -8.3
8 6 5 -1 14.0 11.6 -2.0 1.6 2.9 -0.5
9 7 8 3 15.9 18.2 6.3 1.8 4.5 1.6
10 -14 -24 -7 -23.7 -40.7 -13.5 -2.6 -10.2 -3.4
11 9 0 17 20.9 0.0 48.6 2.3 0.0 12.1
12 5 0 10 11.4 0.0 25.6 1.3 0.0 6.4
K-12 31 -4 29 5.2 -0.7 4.8 0.6 -0.2 1.2
4K-12 81 -4 79 13.6 -0.7 13.2 1.5 -0.2 3.3

K-6 19 -8 24 5.8 -2.4 7.4 0.6 -0.6 1.9
7-8 5 20 -18 6.4 25.6 -17.8 0.7 6.4 -4.5
9-12 7 -16 23 3.7 -8.4 13.2 0.4 -2.1 3.3

Figure 1-B shows enrollment history broken down by grade groupings (K-6, 7-8, and 9-12).
Enrollment in grades K-6 has increased by 7.4% within the past five years, while 9-12 enrollment has
increased by 13.2%. Enrollment in grades 7-8 has decreased by 17.8% in the past five years, which is a
result of small cohorts entering the junior high years.
Figure 1-B Johnson Creek School District

Student Enrollment by Grade Grouping
400
350
300
250
Students
200
150
100
50
0
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
K-6 7-8 9-12

Figure 1-C shows the age structure in Fall 2009 of the Johnson Creek School District student
population with the number of kindergarteners at the bottom and the number of 12th graders at top.
The largest cohorts are in Elementary school, with Kindergarten and 1st grade enrolling 55 and 56
students, respectively. The smallest cohort is currently in 7th grade, with 34 students.
Figure 1-C Johnson Creek School District

Age Structure, Fall 2009
12 49
11 52
10 45
9 51
8 49
7 34
Grade
6 47
5 41
4 46
3 51
2 51
1 56
K 55
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Number of Students Enrolled

Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
Examining trends in kindergarten enrollment is particularly informative for gaining perspective on

future district enrollment, as today’s kindergarteners will gradually make up tomorrow’s students at
the higher grade levels as they age and move through the school system. When kindergarten
enrollment is increasing, elementary and middle school enrollment might be expected to increase in
the near future, while high school enrollment may increase farther in the future. Figure 2-A shows
kindergarten enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten enrollment in red and
blue. The “Long Term Trend” line (shown in red) averages kindergarten enrollment changes between
2000 and 2009. The “Recent Trend” line emphasizes kindergarten enrollment changes over the last
five years. In Johnson Creek School District, kindergarten enrollment has been on the rise for several
years, and particularly within the last five years.
Figure 2-A Johnson Creek School District

Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
80
Projected
70
60
50
Students
40
30
20
10
Actual Long Term Trend Recent Trend

In addition to examining kindergarten enrollment on its own, comparing kindergarten enrollment
to outgoing 12th graders offers a snapshot of how the age structure of district enrollment is shifting
either from older to younger, or younger to older. Districts tend to experience overall growth when
kindergarten enrollment outpaces outgoing students, and they tend to experience decline when
kindergarteners do not fully replace the number of graduates. In Johnson Creek School District,
incoming kindergarten cohorts have exceeded the previous year’s 12th grade enrollment for each of
the last five years.

Kindergarten Replacement
70
60
50
40
Students
30
20
10
0
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Previous Year's 12th Grade Enrollment Kindergarten Enrollment

Birth Trends and Projections
We use historical and projected birth data to forecast the number of Kindergarten students who
will enroll in the Johnson Creek School District in the future years. Figure 3 shows (in black) the
number of births to mothers living in municipalities that fall within school district boundaries, by year,
from 1989-2008, as collected from the Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services. For the
Johnson Creek School District we include the municipalities of the Village of Johnson Creek, and the
Towns of Farmington and Watertown.
We extrapolate these birth trends into the future to correspond with our Baseline and Recent
Trend projection models, using the B:K grade progression ratios to transform births into future
Kindergarteners. The red line in Figure 3 represents birth trends over the longer term (between 1989
and 2008). The blue line examines birth patterns for the last seven years corresponds to the Recent
Trend projection models shown later in this report. Births have increased overall in the past 20 years,
but have shown large increases over the past seven years.
Figure 3 Johnson Creek School District

Area Births
100
Projected
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Long Term Trend Recent Trend Actual

Population Estimates and Projections
This section examines population trends of the recent past and projected population change into
the future for municipalities that fall within the Johnson Creek School District area. Changes in the
total population of the district area, particularly when examined by age, provide clues into how the
school age population may be changing.
Table 3 and Figure 4-A provide Wisconsin Department of Administration (DOA) estimates for
district area municipalities from 1990 to 2009. These municipal estimates can be compared with
estimates for Jefferson County and the State of Wisconsin. The Johnson Creek School District area
grew quickly from 2000-2006. Since that point in time, growth has slowed somewhat, with a growth of
.5% from 2008 to 2009.
TABLE 3
Population Estimates of Municipalities: 1990-2009
POPULATION
Census Census est. est. est. est. est.
Municipality 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
V. Johnson Creek 1,259 1,581 1,901 2,012 2,055 2,122 2,138

T. Farmington 1,404 1,498 1,524 1,523 1,525 1,533 1,532
T. Watertown 1,840 1,876 1,919 1,930 1,952 1,962 1,973
District Area 4,503 4,955 5,344 5,465 5,532 5,617 5,643
Jefferson County 67,783 75,767 79,188 80,005 80,411 81,022 81,310
State of Wisconsin 4,891,769 5,101,581 5,363,715 5,617,744 5,648,124 5,675,000 5,688,000
PERCENT CHANGE AVG.

1990 to 2000 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to ANNUAL
Municipality 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000-2009
V. Johnson Creek 25.6% 20.2% 5.8% 2.1% 3.3% 0.8% 3.9%

T. Farmington 6.7% 1.7% -0.1% 0.1% 0.5% -0.1% 0.3%
T. Watertown 2.0% 2.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
District Area 10.0% 7.9% 2.3% 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% 1.5%
Jefferson County 11.8% 4.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8%
State of Wisconsin 4.3% 5.1% 4.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.3%
Source: Official Population Estimates (1990-2009). Demographic Services Center, WIDOA

Population Estimates for Area Municipalities
6,000
5,000
4,000
Population
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
V. Johnson Creek T. Farmington T. Watertown District Area

Population projections to 2020 for Johnson Creek School District area municipalities are provided in
Table 4. These projections suggest that area population will continue to increase in the coming years,
although at rates slower than the growth seen from 2000-05. Overall, the district area is expected to
gain about 953 residents between 2005 and 2020.
TABLE 4
Population Projections of Municipalities: 1990-2020
POPULATION
Census Estimate Census Estimate Projections CHANGE
Municipality 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 to 2020
V. Johnson Creek 1,259 1,476 1,581 1,901 2,157 2,413 2,673 1,092
T. Farmington 1,404 1,422 1,498 1,524 1,558 1,585 1,615 117
T. Watertown 1,840 1,880 1,876 1,919 1,943 1,974 2,009 133
District Area 4,503 4,778 4,955 5,344 5,658 5,972 6,297 1,342
Jefferson County 67,783 70,886 75,767 79,188 82,729 86,517 90,417 14,650
State of Wisconsin 4,891,769 5,101,581 5,363,715 5,617,744 5,772,370 5,988,420 6,202,810 839,095
PERCENT CHANGE
Observed & Estimated Projected
Municipality 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2000-20
V. Johnson Creek 17.2% 7.1% 20.2% 13.5% 11.9% 10.8% 69.1%

T. Farmington 1.3% 5.3% 1.7% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 7.8%
T. Watertown 2.2% -0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% 7.1%
District Area 6.1% 3.7% 7.9% 5.9% 5.5% 5.4% 27.1%
ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE

Observed & Estimated Projected
Municipality 1990-95 1995-2000 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2000-20
V. Johnson Creek 3.4% 1.4% 4.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 3.5%

T. Farmington 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%
T. Watertown 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%
District Area 1.2% 0.7% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4%
Source: Population Projections for Wisconsin Municipalities: 2000-35 (2008). Demographic Services Center, WIDOA

Table 5 shows population projections by age for Jefferson County. In the county as a whole, the
number of children aged 5-9, 10-15, and 15-19 is expected to increase by 2035. Because these
projections are for the entirety of Jefferson County, they may or may not resemble the future age
structure of the population within the Johnson Creek School District area.
TABLE 5
Population Projections by Age: 2010-2035
Jefferson County
Age Group 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

0-4 5,179 5,548 5,852 5,969 5,960 6,046
5-9 5,278 5,511 5,888 6,188 6,290 6,266
10-14 5,371 5,663 5,899 6,282 6,582 6,674
15-19 5,927 5,862 6,152 6,382 6,772 7,079
20-24 5,293 5,132 5,077 5,334 5,538 5,882
25-29 6,058 5,617 5,453 5,400 5,673 5,895
30-34 5,479 6,355 5,883 5,712 5,644 5,933
35-39 5,241 5,821 6,706 6,190 6,010 5,923
40-44 5,830 5,403 6,002 6,891 6,353 6,172
45-49 6,547 5,895 5,471 6,080 6,968 6,423
50-54 6,124 6,478 5,843 5,432 6,044 6,932
55-59 5,413 5,963 6,319 5,711 5,318 5,928
60-64 4,416 5,146 5,684 6,039 5,468 5,105
65-69 3,244 4,087 4,778 5,295 5,642 5,124
70-74 2,524 2,895 3,665 4,302 4,788 5,124
75-79 1,846 2,153 2,488 3,172 3,745 4,196
80-84 1,434 1,367 1,609 1,880 2,419 2,880
85-89 942 947 920 1,098 1,302 1,698
90-94 425 485 501 500 607 735
95-99 132 154 184 197 203 253
100 & Over 26 35 43 54 61 66
Totals 82,729 86,517 90,417 94,108 97,387 100,334
Source: Population Projections for Wisconsin Counties: 2000-35 (2008). Demographic Services Center, WIDOA

Figure 4-B shows population estimates for 2008 by age for Jefferson County from the U.S. Census
Bureau and population projections for 2015 produced by the Wisconsin Department of Administration
Demographic Services Center. By 2015 the number of school aged children in Jefferson County is
expected to increase, with the exception of the number of high school aged children (15-19) which is
expected to decrease slightly.
Figure 4-B Age Structure

Jefferson County
85plus
Males Females
80 to 84
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
Under 5
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Number of People
2015 Projections 2008 Estimate

Residential Development
Examining trends in recent housing development can help to explain how in-migration into the
Johnson Creek School District area might be affecting school enrollment. If the number of housing
starts in the district area is expected to be reasonably consistent for the next several years, then we
assume that in-migration of school-age children will also remain relatively consistent. If the number of
housing starts is expected to increase significantly above and beyond recent levels, in-migration may
play an increasing role in school district enrollment. However, it is important to recognize that the
number of housing starts in any given year is dependent upon a large number of confounding variables
(decisions of local, county, and state policy makers, residential developers, interest rates, demand for
housing, etc.), making future growth patterns difficult to predict.
Table 6 shows the number of housing starts in the Johnson Creek School District over the past ten
years. Area housing starts have fluctuated from a high of 113 units in 2004 (including 143 single family
homes), to a low of 26 new housing starts in 2008.
TABLE 6
School District Area Housing Starts
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
District Area
TOTAL 80 32 34 45 73 113 68 56 51 26
Single Family 31 15 26 43 61 99 56 54 41 26
Two Family 1 1 0 2 12 14 12 2 2 0
Multi-family 48 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 8 0
V. Johnson Creek
TOTAL 54 22 14 31 55 95 49 39 41 20
Single Family 6 6 6 29 43 81 37 37 31 20
Two Family 0 0 0 2 12 14 12 2 2 0
Multi-family 48 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 8 0
T. Farmington
TOTAL 6 5 9 6 5 11 6 6 1 0
Single Family 6 5 9 6 5 11 6 6 1 0
Two Family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Multi-family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
T. Watertown
TOTAL 20 5 11 8 13 7 13 11 9 6
Single Family 19 4 11 8 13 7 13 11 9 6
Two Family 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Multi-family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Figure 5-A shows the number of residential building permits issued by municipality for communities
that fall within the Johnson Creek School District area. Figure 5-B shows housing starts in the area by
type of housing unit—single family home, duplex, multi-family housing unit, or mobile home.
The majority of housing development over the last several years has occurred in the Village of
Johnson creek. There has also been a small amount of development in towns of Farmington and
Watertown. Most of the development in the area has consisted of single-family homes; however the
Village of Johnson Creek has seen some multi-family residential development over the past several
years. Households in two-family and multi-family complexes, on average, contain fewer school-aged
children than single family homes.
The entire district area has experienced a decline in development over the past four years. This is
consistent with housing and economic trends in Jefferson County, Wisconsin, and the United States as
a whole. Despite these challenges, the Johnson Creek School District still saw 26 new housing starts in
2008, indicating that development is still occurring within the district area. This is the same amount of
single-family home development that occurred in 2001, and more single-family housing development
than occurred in 2000.

Area Housing Starts by Municipality
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
V. Johnson Creek T. Farmington T. Watertown

Area Housing Starts by Type
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Single Family Two Family Multi-family Total
It is also important to consider that turnover in ownership of existing housing stock also contributes
to changes in enrollment. A district can maintain or even increase enrollment depending upon the
cycle of resident homeowners, regardless of housing starts. For instance, a younger community will
have a higher child-per-household ratio, whereas an older community will have a lower child-per-
household ration. However, within a few years a turnover in ownership in an older community may
result in an increase in the child-per-household number. As younger families move into the area, the
school district will tend to see new students enrolling into the district’s schools. Absent new housing
development or housing turnover, families age in place and the number of school-aged children
eventually declines. Turnover in ownership does not happen overnight, however, and slow turnover
may happen for several years at varying rates.

Methods
In order to generate school enrollment projections, we rely on a commonly used demographic

technique called the “cohort survival method.” This method advances current students through the
school system over time and applies rates of transfer (or “survival”) as the students who are now in
school age from year to year and grade to grade. It is through these rates of transfer that we make
assumptions about how migration into and out of the district and transfers to and from different
schools or home schooling will impact future enrollment. In order to project incoming kindergarten
students, we gather data on births from the Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services and
assume that a certain percentage of the children born to mothers residing in the school district area
will enroll as kindergarteners five to six years later. Finally, we customize projections to best fit an
individual district’s needs by adjusting the basic model based on information about birth trends, recent
housing development, economic changes, and/or population projections.
Grade Progression Ratios
Grade progression ratios are used to measure district enrollment changes, year to year and grade
to grade that have occurred within the school district in the recent past. By examining these, we can
better understand recent changes in enrollment, and we use these ratios as the rates of transfer
mentioned above to inform projections of future students.
Table 7 shows the grade progression ratios for the Johnson Creek School District. The ratios
measure the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools, or via open enrollment. The ratios are calculated for several pairs of years and then averages
of these based on different time frames are calculated for each grade.

TABLE 7
Grade Progression Ratios
YEAR
CHANGES B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11:12
00-01/01-02 0.556 0.870 0.930 0.717 1.000 1.000 0.887 1.000 0.943 1.023 0.977 1.000 1.047
01-02/02-03 0.586 1.091 0.979 0.900 1.289 1.022 1.100 0.979 0.923 1.182 0.841 1.047 0.898
02-03/03-04 0.570 1.095 1.139 1.109 1.194 1.020 0.979 1.023 1.130 1.056 1.051 1.216 1.000
03-04/04-05 0.554 1.000 1.109 1.122 1.000 1.116 1.020 1.087 1.067 1.000 0.921 1.049 0.978
04-05/05-06 0.831 1.000 1.114 0.961 1.000 1.020 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.907
05-06/06-07 0.857 0.922 1.053 1.103 0.898 0.978 1.000 0.979 1.039 1.020 0.938 1.019 0.914
06-07/07-08 0.868 0.955 0.936 1.025 1.047 0.932 1.000 0.942 0.957 0.962 0.961 1.044 0.906
07-08/08-09 0.837 1.063 1.167 1.000 1.024 1.022 0.927 1.067 1.000 0.933 1.020 0.980 1.043
08-09/09-10 0.821 0.966 1.000 1.041 1.045 0.976 1.022 0.895 1.021 1.041 1.071 1.000 1.021
Baseline 0.765 0.999 1.047 1.032 1.044 1.005 0.992 0.999 1.004 1.015 0.981 1.017 0.968
5 Year Trend 0.843 0.981 1.054 1.026 1.003 0.986 0.990 0.977 1.003 0.991 0.998 1.009 0.958
2 Year "Trend" 0.829 1.014 1.083 1.020 1.035 0.999 0.974 0.981 1.010 0.987 1.046 0.990 1.032
*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline Average
The grade progression ratios can be interpreted in the following manner. The Baseline ratio for K:1
is .999. This means that in the Johnson Creek School District, the first grade is on average .1% smaller
each year than the kindergarten class was the previous year (the result of transfers to other schools
and out-migration from the district), though the ratio is incredibly close to one, and very little loss of
students is occurring. The B:K (birth to kindergarten) Baseline ratio of 0.765 indicates that on average,
approximately 76.5% of the births in the Village of Johnson Creek and Towns of Farmington and
Watertown from five years previous enroll in kindergarten in Johnson Creek School District. Outliers
(ratios outside of one standard deviation of the mean) are not included in the calculation of the
Baseline average ratios.
In order to examine future enrollment under different growth assumptions, we generate three sets
of grade progression ratios that correspond to the different projection models shown later in this
report. In addition to the Baseline ratios (averages 10 years of data), we examine rates of transfer in
the last 5 years and the last 2 years, effectively weighing enrollment change patterns from different
time periods more heavily than the Baseline. Any significant deviations from the rates of in- and out-
migration in the district area will have a corresponding effect on enrollment. These additional models
allow us to examine alternative outcomes compared to the overall trends of the Baseline model.
Figure 6 shows the differences between these three sets of grade progression ratios.

Grade Progression Ratios, by Model
1.150
1.100
1.050
Grade Progression Ratio
1.000
0.950
0.900
0.850
0.800
0.750
B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11:12
Baseline Trend 5 Year Trend 2 Year Trend
Looking at the Last 2 Year “Trend” ratios, the K:1 ratio (1.014) shows that in the last two years as
students advanced from Kindergarten to first grade, the school district gained an average of 1.4% of
students each year. Grade progression ratios in the last two years have been particularly high for K:1,
1:2, :10, and 11:12, suggesting more in-migration of students at these grade levels.

School Enrollment Projections, 2010-2019
When considering all of the projections provided in this report for decision-making, it is important
to recognize that population projections of all types, including school enrollment projections, are more
accurate in the immediate future than they are farther into the future. This is especially true for
grades K-5, because the students who will enter kindergarten after 2014 have not yet been born.
Overall, our projections are more reliable over the next five years (up to the 2014/15 school year) than
they are in the latter half of the next decade.
4K Enrollment Projections
In the 2008/09 school year the Johnson Creek School District started a 4K program within the
district. Given that there are now only two years of data for this program, the Applied Population
Laboratory is unable to project 4K enrollment for most models due to a lack of data. Projections are
included, however, for the 2 Year Trend model, which incorporates data from the last two years of
enrollment.
On average, in the past two years, 75.4% of children born within the district four years previous
enroll in 4K in the Johnson Creek School District. Kindergarten enrollment this year was 10% larger
than 4K enrollment in the 2008/09 school year.
While projections are provided for one model, it is important to note that trends and enrollment in
4K may not have stabilized, and the percentage of students enrolling in 4K in the past two years is not
necessarily indicative of the number of 4K students that will enroll in the next decade. Interest and
enrollment in 4K should be monitored closely to determine the future trajectory of 4K enrollment.

Baseline Projection
The Baseline model (Table 8) projects enrollments using the assumption that average trends year
to year, grade to grade, will continue into the future. This model assumes that long term (past ten
years) trends in enrollment, migration, and births will be representative of future trends in the district.
This model projects that K-12 enrollment will increase over the next decade, projecting that K-12
enrollment will increase by 162 students (a 25.8% increase) by 2019/20. Within the next five years
enrollment is projected to increase by 72 students (an 11.5% increase).
TABLE 8
Baseline Projection Model
SCHOOL YEAR
10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
K 50 56 62 60 55 54 55 55 56 56
1 55 50 56 62 60 55 54 55 55 55
2 59 58 53 58 65 63 58 57 57 58
3 53 61 59 54 60 67 65 60 59 59
4 53 55 63 62 57 63 70 68 63 61
5 46 54 55 64 62 57 63 70 68 63
6 41 46 53 55 63 62 57 63 69 67
7 47 41 46 53 55 63 62 56 63 69
8 34 47 41 46 53 55 63 62 57 63
9 50 35 48 41 47 54 56 64 63 57
10 50 49 34 47 41 46 53 55 63 62
11 46 51 50 35 48 41 47 54 56 64
12 50 44 49 48 33 46 40 45 52 54
K-12 634 645 668 685 699 726 742 763 780 789
K-12 634 645 668 685 699 726 742 763 780 789
K-6 357 379 401 415 422 421 421 427 426 420
7-8 81 88 87 99 108 118 125 119 119 132
9-12 196 179 181 171 168 187 195 218 234 237

5 Year Trend Projection
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 9) uses the grade progression ratios from the last five years and
recent trends in the number of births in the school district area to project what future enrollments
would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends. With recent migration
rates and birth trends weighted more heavily, K-12 enrollment in the Johnson Creek School District is
projected to increase at a higher rate than the Baseline model over the next decade, projecting an
increase of 240 students (38.3%).
Within the next five years enrollment is projected to increase by 76 students (12.1%).
TABLE 9
5 Year Trend Projection Model
SCHOOL YEAR
GRADE 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
K 55 62 68 66 66 69 72 74 77 79
1 54 54 60 67 65 65 68 70 73 75
2 59 57 57 64 70 68 69 71 74 77
3 52 61 58 59 65 72 70 70 73 76
4 51 52 61 58 59 65 72 70 71 73
5 45 50 52 60 58 58 64 71 69 69
6 41 45 50 51 59 57 57 64 71 68
7 46 40 44 49 50 58 56 56 62 69
8 34 46 40 44 49 50 58 56 56 63
9 49 34 46 39 44 48 50 58 55 56
10 51 48 34 46 39 43 48 50 57 55
11 45 51 49 34 46 40 44 49 50 58
12 50 43 49 47 33 44 38 42 47 48
K-12 632 644 667 683 703 739 766 801 835 867
K-12 632 644 667 683 703 739 766 801 835 867
K-6 358 381 406 424 442 455 472 491 507 518
6-8 80 86 84 93 99 108 114 112 119 131
9-12 195 177 177 166 161 176 180 198 210 217

2 Year “Trend” Projection
The 2 Year “Trend” model (Table 10) uses the progression ratios from the last two years to project
what future enrollments would look like if even more recent patterns were representative of future
trends. For the Last 2 Year “Trend,” K-12 enrollment is projected to increase from 627 students in
2009/10 to 924 students in 2019/20. This is an increase of 297 students (47.4%) over the next decade.
Within the next five years enrollment is projected to increase by 105 students, or 16.7%. 4K enrollment
is projected to increase from 50 students in 2009/10 to 62 students by 2014/15 and 73 students by
2019/20.
This model projects the highest amount of enrollment increase for two reasons. First, the relatively
high grade progression ratios (rates of migration and transfers into the district) that the district has
experienced in the last two years, and the higher projected births for the second half of the decade
(the Recent Trend birth projections). This model should be interpreted with some caution—if future
migration into the school district continues at the relatively high rate experienced in the last two to
three years, and births increase at the same rate as they have in the past few years, then this model
should be appropriate. Still, it is important to note that ratios can be variable year to year and very
short term trends (2 years) do not often continue into the future, unless there has been a substantive
change in the district that has impacted migration levels and this change is expected to continue to
affect migration into the future. Births should also be closely monitored, as recessions tend to
decrease births in the short term, though this is not necessarily true for every school district.
TABLE 10
2 Year "Trend" Projection Model
SCHOOL YEAR
GRADE 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
4K 55 61 59 59 62 64 66 69 71 73
K 54 60 67 65 65 68 70 73 75 78
1 56 55 61 68 66 66 69 71 74 76
2 61 60 60 66 73 71 72 75 77 80
3 52 62 62 61 68 75 73 73 76 79
4 53 54 64 64 63 70 78 75 76 79
5 46 53 54 64 64 63 70 77 75 76
6 40 45 51 52 62 62 61 68 75 73
7 46 39 44 50 51 61 61 60 67 74
8 34 47 40 44 51 52 62 62 61 68
9 48 34 46 39 44 50 51 61 61 60
10 53 51 35 48 41 46 53 54 64 64
11 45 53 50 35 48 40 45 52 53 63
12 54 46 54 52 36 49 42 47 54 55
K-12 642 658 688 709 732 774 806 848 888 924
4K-12 697 719 747 768 794 838 873 917 959 997
K-6 362 389 419 440 462 476 493 513 529 541
7-8 80 86 84 95 102 113 123 122 128 142
9-12 200 183 186 174 168 186 191 213 231 242

Kindergarten Trend Projection
For this method we perform a trend analysis to project the number of future kindergarten
students, rather than relying upon the traditional birth to kindergarten (B:K) progression ratio. Then,
the 5 Year Trend progression ratios are used for projecting the other grades (1-12) in the district. In
other words, this model assumes that the number of new kindergarteners each year over the next
decade will continue to follow a trend similar to the trend in kindergarten enrollment change over the
last seven years, regardless of the number of observed births in the school district area.
According to this hybrid projection method (Table 11), K-12 enrollment would increase only slightly
over the next decade. A good way to think about the projections provided by this model is that if the
number of new kindergarteners continues to increase (as they have over the last several years) and if
patterns of transfers in and out of the district continue as they have over the past five years, then the
Kindergarten Regression model should provide a good prediction of future enrollment.
TABLE 11
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
GRADE 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
K 56 58 60 62 64 67 69 71 73 75
1 54 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 70 72
2 59 57 57 60 62 64 67 69 71 73
3 52 61 58 59 61 64 66 68 71 73
4 51 52 61 58 59 61 64 66 68 71
5 45 50 52 60 58 58 61 63 65 68
6 41 45 50 51 59 57 58 60 62 65
7 46 40 44 49 50 58 56 56 59 61
8 34 46 40 44 49 50 58 56 57 59
9 49 34 46 39 44 48 50 58 55 56
10 51 48 34 46 39 43 48 50 57 55
11 45 51 49 34 46 40 44 49 50 58
12 50 43 49 47 33 44 38 42 47 48
K-12 633 640 656 668 685 718 742 775 805 833
K-12 633 640 656 668 685 718 742 775 805 833
K-6 358 377 395 409 425 434 449 465 481 496
7-8 80 86 84 93 99 108 114 112 115 120
9-12 195 177 177 166 161 176 180 198 210 217

Comparison of Projection Models
Figures 7-10 and Tables 12-15 compare the four enrollment projection models broken down by
total K-12 district enrollment and by grade groupings.

K-12 Enrollment History and Projections
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Baseline 5 Year Trend 2 Year Trend Kindergarten Trend Actual
TABLE 14
Summary of K-12 Enrollment Projections
10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
Baseline 634 645 668 685 699 726 742 763 780 789
5 Year Trend 632 644 667 683 703 739 766 801 835 867
2 Year "Trend" 642 658 688 709 732 774 806 848 888 924
Kindergarten Trend 633 640 656 668 685 718 742 775 805 833
All of the models presented show enrollment growth (at varying levels) over the next decade.
District-wide K-12 enrollment projections five years from now (2014) predict a range of enrollment
from 685 (Kindergarten Trend Model) to 732 (2 Year Trend Model).

K-6 Enrollment History and Projections
600
500
400
300
200
100
TABLE 15
Summary of K-6 Enrollment Projections
10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
Baseline 357 379 401 415 422 421 421 427 426 420
5 Year Trend 358 381 406 424 442 455 472 491 507 518
2 Year "Trend" 362 389 419 440 462 476 493 513 529 541
For grades K-6 all of the models presented point to increasing enrollment over the next decade.
This is due to an increasing trend of births in the long term, and a very quick increase of births in the
past few years in particular. Enrollment projections for K-6 enrollment five years out range from a low
of 422 students (Baseline Model) to a high of 440 students (2 Year Trend Model).

7-8 Enrollment History and Projections
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
TABLE 16
Summary of 7-8 Enrollment Projections
10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
Baseline 81 88 87 99 108 118 125 119 119 132
5 Year Trend 80 86 84 93 99 108 114 112 119 131
2 Year "Trend" 80 86 84 95 102 113 123 122 128 142
At the junior high grade levels, all of the models substantial increases over current enrollment over
the next several years due to current small cohorts in grades 7 and 8, and larger existing cohorts and
projected births over the next decade. Enrollment projections for five years out (2014/15) range from
a low of 99 students (5 Year Trend and Kindergarten Regression models) to a high of 108 students
(Baseline model).

9-12 Enrollment History and Projections
300
250
200
150
100
50
TABLE 17
Summary of 9-12 Enrollment Projections
10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20
Baseline 196 179 181 171 168 187 195 218 234 237
5 Year Trend 195 177 177 166 161 176 180 198 210 217
2 Year "Trend" 200 183 186 174 168 186 191 213 231 242
All of the models project decreasing enrollment at the high school level over the next five years.
This is mainly due to current large cohorts of high school students that will graduate, followed by
smaller cohorts of students entering high school in the near future. After this point, as the larger
cohorts currently in Elementary school move into high school, enrollment is projected to increase
substantially. All of the models project declining high school enrollment over the next five years, with
enrollment projections in 2014/15 ranging from a low of 161 students (5 Year Trend/Kindergarten
Regression Model) to a high of 168 students (Baseline Model and 2 Year “Trend” Model).

Conclusions
These district-level enrollment projections are based on models that incorporate recent past and
current demographic information as well as the district’s own enrollment data. Because most of the
students in the district’s schools over the next few years have already been born or are already in
school, and because their grade progression from one year to another is highly predictable, the total
district-level projections should be viewed as having high accuracy over the next few years. After a few
years, and increasingly for the lower elementary grades, actual enrollment figures will likely deviate
from these projections by ever increasing amounts. The reason for this is that birth trends, in-
migration of pre-school age children, and transfers into the district are more difficult to predict and
therefore this makes meaningful incorporation into enrollment projections a challenge. As with nearly
all types of forecasts, accuracy in these enrollment projections decreases over time.
In sum, the information provided in this school enrollment projection report points to increasing
enrollment in the Johnson Creek School District over the next decade. The Last Two Year “Trend”
model projects substantially higher enrollment than the other models. This is because it is based upon
relatively high grade progression ratios and the rate of increasing births experienced in the district in
the last two years. If these higher levels of in-migration and transfers into the district are not
continued into the future, or if the number of births in the district declines, then this model will not be
valid. If these higher levels become a new trend in the district and are continued, then the Last Two
Year Trend model would be an important model to consider. Also of note, the Baseline model projects
substantially lower enrollment in the latter half of the decade than the other models, particularly at
the elementary school level. This is a result of the slower rate of increase in births as compared to the
much quicker increase in births seen in the past few years. If the recession causes the increase in
births to slow, or creates a sustained period of no housing development in the district, the Baseline
model might be an important model to consider. Enrollment projections for the other two models
provided (the 5 Year Trend and Kindergarten Regression models) provide projections that fall
somewhere between the Baseline and 2 Year Trend models at the end of the decade.
Because the projections found in this report incorporate the consequences of migration to and
from the Village and Towns, any significant and sustained interruption of current or recent past
migration patterns will erode these models’ accuracy from the initiation point of the new pattern. The
various projection models provide a realistic range of migration and transfer effects on the school
district. Enrollment growth should be closely monitored for the next few years, and compared with
these projections, to determine the trajectory of future growth. This type of monitoring program might
help the district to determine which of the models seems to be the most realistic to use for planning
purposes.

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Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow

School Enrollment Projections Series

Contact: Sara Lazenby, sllazenby@wisc.edu, (608) 263-5091

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District ii

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District iii

District Enrollment History, 2000-2009

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 1

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 2

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 3

ABSOLUTE CHANGE PERCENT CHANGE AVERAGE ANNUAL

K 1 -16 4 1.9 -29.6 7.8 0.2 -7.4 2.0

K-12 31 -4 29 5.2 -0.7 4.8 0.6 -0.2 1.2

4K-12 81 -4 79 13.6 -0.7 13.2 1.5 -0.2 3.3

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 4

Figure 1-B Johnson Creek School District

K-6 7-8 9-12

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 5

Figure 1-C Johnson Creek School District

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 6

Examining trends in kindergarten enrollment is particularly informative for gaining perspective on

Figure 2-A Johnson Creek School District

Actual Long Term Trend Recent Trend

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 7

Figure 2-B Johnson Creek School District

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 8

Figure 3 Johnson Creek School District

Long Term Trend Recent Trend Actual

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 9

V. Johnson Creek 1,259 1,581 1,901 2,012 2,055 2,122 2,138

PERCENT CHANGE AVG.

V. Johnson Creek 25.6% 20.2% 5.8% 2.1% 3.3% 0.8% 3.9%

Source: Official Population Estimates (1990-2009). Demographic Services Center, WIDOA

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 10

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 11

V. Johnson Creek 17.2% 7.1% 20.2% 13.5% 11.9% 10.8% 69.1%

ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE

V. Johnson Creek 3.4% 1.4% 4.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 3.5%

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 12

Age Group 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Totals 82,729 86,517 90,417 94,108 97,387 100,334

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 13

Figure 4-B Age Structure

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

2015 Projections 2008 Estimate

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 14

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 15

Figure 5-A Johnson Creek School District

V. Johnson Creek T. Farmington T. Watertown

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 16

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 17

In order to generate school enrollment projections, we rely on a commonly used demographic

Grade Progression Ratios

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 18

*Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline Average

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 19

Baseline Trend 5 Year Trend 2 Year Trend

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 20

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 21

School Enrollment Projection Series: Johnson Creek School District 22