Prediction of Students' Educational Status Using CART Algorithm, Neural Network, and Increase in Prediction Precision Using Combinational Model
Prediction of Students' Educational Status Using CART Algorithm, Neural Network, and Increase in Prediction Precision Using Combinational Model
Prediction of Students' Educational Status Using CART Algorithm, Neural Network, and Increase in Prediction Precision Using Combinational Model
Tehran Payame Noor Iran University of Science Payame Noor Tehran Payame Noor
University and Technology University University
stages' succession often includes the result of correlation 4.1. Tables Combination
of previous stages. The most important correlation among
stages is showing arrows. Recurrent feature of CRISP In this stage that is a part of data preparation, we combine
indicates external cycle that often leads to a solution for tables and the result is a new table with the specification of
research or business problem with additional remarkable table 3 that is used as data mine for algorithms.
questions. In figure 1, you can observe stages of this Through nodes that are data preparation special, we
methodology [1]. implement some changes on this data mine.
Table (1): Basic information One of the methods of preparing data is to find
Student First Kind of Admission Birth native anomalous data from the tables and delete them in order to
Number name and admission Term Date gain results that are more precise through models. To do
surname in this, we attach data mine to Anomaly node and next, we
university
add the created model to the project, and then by
Some unnecessary fields have been deleted.
adjustment of model, anomalous data in models creation
Table (2): Lessons
Lesso Lesso Ter Sco Theor Practical Explanations
are deleted. In the figure, you observe the way of model
n's n's m re etical credit creation.
code name credit
4. Data preparation
Pre processing2: The importance of data preparation is
because of the reality that "lack of data of quality is equal
to lack of quality in results of mining" and improper input
leads to improper output. In table 2, the importance of data
preparation is compared to the importance of other steps of
knowledge discovery using data mining. [2]
Figure (2): Data Anomaly Model
Data mining step Percent of Percent of As you can see in figure number 2, first, we attached data
time spent importance in mine to Anomaly algorithm and after creating the model,
from total work's final we added it to the project. Indeed, the technique of
work success anomalous data recognition is use of clustering methods.
Data preparation 75 75
Data investigation 20 15 4.3. Feature Selection Technique
Data modeling 5 10
A technique is used to decrease the number of variables
Table (2): comparison of data preparation importance before implementation of data mining algorithm. Irrelevant
IJCSNS International Journal of Computer Science and Network Security, VOL.11 No.6, June 2011 245
variables can have negative effect on prediction duty, or processor system that a large number of them in the form
can complicate the calculations. of a complex work together like brain hormones in order
In order to implement algorithms on data banks, we to solve special problems like pattern detection or data
decreased the number of required fields through this classification through learning process. [3]
technique.
To do this work, first, we create a mine node (figure 3) and
then link data mine, which Anomaly technique has been 6. Clementine software
implemented on it to that feature selection.
First, Ulshan, Friedman, Barmyman, and Stone designed
CART algorithm for trees of regression and classification
in 1984. The operation method of this algorithm is named
Surrogate Spiliting. This algorithm includes a recurrent
method. In every stage, CART algorithm divides
instructional records into two subsets so that the records of
each subset are more homogeneous than previous subsets.
These divisions continue until conditions of stop are
established. In CART, the best breaking point or
assignment of the value of impurity parameter is
determined. If the best break for a branch makes impurity
F
less than the defined extent, that split will not be made.
igure (3): implementation of Feature Selection model
Here, the concept of impurity is assigned to the degree of
similarity between target field value and records arrived to
For this model, successively unqualified field was selected
a node. If 100 percent of the samples in a node are placed
as target field and after algorithm implementation that 28
in a specific category of the target field, that node is
fields have been selected as inputs, 3 fields were deleted
named pure. It is remarkable that in CART algorithm, a
from list of fields and 25 fields were selected as inputs of
foreteller field may be often used in different levels of
neural network and CART algorithms.
decision tree. In addition, this algorithm supports
This method is one of the supervisory learning techniques.
categorical and continues types of foreteller and target
When outcomes are two classes, linear regression is not so
fields. [3]
efficient; in this state, applying this technique is more
appropriate. The other point is that this method is a
nonlinear regression technique and it is not necessary for 7. Model Creation
data to have linear state. If we want to say the reason for
use of logistic regression, we should argue that in linear Because of lengthiness of data preparation part, we have
regression not only outcomes should be in numerical given up to cite its stages in this section.
forms, but also variables should be in numerical forms as To create the model, first we add a data mine node to the
well. Hence, the states that are in sort form should change project and then add a partition node to the project in order
to numerical forms. to divide data to two parts of test and learning that 30
percent of data are test data and its 70 percent are
4.4. Filtration and deleting wide data instructional data.
Next stage after data conversion is data type determination
To make a better model, in addition to fields deleted by using type node; after this stage, feature selection
Feature Selection algorithm, using filter node we delete capability is used for determination of fields' importance in
those fields that do not influence on models' output. prediction. This leads to the selection of those fields that
Therefore, from 28 total fields, 8 fields were deleted, and have more importance in prediction.
finally 15 fields were transferred to algorithms for model In subsequent stage, we add models, which are CART and
implementation. Neural Net to the project.
In addition, using Select node, we deleted from the table When models are attached, we implement them and then
those data, which their values were null. link models' outputs to each other; and after linking
models, using Ensemble node we combine them with each
other. In figure 4, you observe the created model.
5. Neural Network4
Neural Network or ANN is an instance of processing
system, which is inspired from biological neural
networks like brain. Key organ of this new structure is data
246 IJCSNS International Journal of Computer Science and Network Security, VOL.11 No.6, June 2011
REFERENCES
[1] http://www.crisp-dm.org
[2] Andrew W. Moore. "Regression and Classification with
Neural Networks". School of Computer Science Carnegie
Mellon University. 2001.
[3] Mosavi, M.R., "A Comparative Study between Performance
Figure(9):Models' combination through ensemble node of Recurrent Neural Network and Kalman Filter for DGPS
Corrections Prediction", IEEE Conference on Signal
As you see in figure number 9, after creation of 2 models Processing (ICSP 2004), China, Vol.1, pp.356-359, August
31-4, September, 2004.
we link them to each other and then combine them through
[4] Ramos, V. and Abraham, A., "Evolving a Stigmergic Self-
Ensemble node. After implementation of combinational Organized Data-Mining", Conf. on Intelligent Systems,
model, in order to evaluate model, we attach it to Analysis Design and Applications (ISDA-04), 2004, pp.725-730.
mode.