Social Education 88 (1)

©2024 National Council for the Social Studies

The Keys to the White House:

The Outlook for 2024
Allan J. Lichtman

S ince 1996, I have apprised readers of Social

Education of my predicted presidential elec-
tion results based on the Keys to the White House.
This work presents a unique model for explain-
ing and predicting the outcome of presidential
contests, including 2024. The Keys to the White
The Keys are a historical-based index system for House model does not use horse-race polls or
predicting the results of American presidential presidential approval ratings. It does not focus
elections that have been successful since 1984. primarily on economic trends. Instead, the Keys
The Keys gauge the strength and performance of consist of 13 simple true/false questions based on
the party holding the White House. If six or more the insight that presidential elections are votes up
keys turn against the White House party, they are or down on the broadly defined strength and per-
predicted losers (see Table 1). In 2016, in defiance formance of the party holding the White House.
of polls and pundits, the Keys predicted Donald That is, governing, not campaigning, counts in
Trump’s victory, and in 2020, the Keys predicted electing the American president.
that he would become the first president since The Keys gauge the big picture of a president’s
George H. W. Bush in 1992 to lose a reelection record, such as midterm election results, internal
bid (see Table 2 on p. 8). nomination contests, third-party challenges, the
short- and long-term economy, policy change,
The Big Picture of Presidential Elections social unrest, scandal, and foreign and military
Under pressure to cover the presidential election failures and successes. Only two keys relate to the
nearly day by day, the media focused on the candidates, asking whether the incumbent or chal-
horse-race polls that independent and partisan lenging party candidate is a once-in-generation
organizations issue in abundance. However, polls broadly inspirational, charismatic figure. Unlike
taken months before an election had zero predic- most academic models, the Key model’s questions
tive value, leading to outlandish forecasting errors. are simple and easy for anyone to understand and
In June of the election year 1988, Republican can- even use on their own. The Keys make for a good
didate George H. W. Bush trailed his Democratic interview or commentary; anyone can weigh in
opponent, Michael Dukakis, by 17 percent, with their ideas.
according to the Gallup poll. Bush ultimately Answers to some of the questions posed in
defeated Dukakis by 8 percent, for a 25-point the Keys require the kind of informed evalua-
swing. Even late polls can be misleading. In 1980, tions that historians invariably rely on in drawing
a Gallup poll two weeks before the election conclusions about past events. Two constraints
showed Republican challenger Ronald Reagan distinguish these assessments from the ad hoc
trailing Democratic President Jimmy Carter by 8 judgments offered by conventional political com-
percent. Reagan ultimately defeated Carter by mentators. First, all judgment calls are made con-
10 percent, for an 18-point swing. In 2012, the sistently across elections; the threshold standards
final Gallup poll just before the election showed established in the study of previous elections must
President Barack Obama trailing challenger Mitt be applied to future contests. Second, each Key
Romney by 1 percent. Obama ultimately defeated has an explicit definition, briefly summarized in
Romney by 4 percent, for a 5-point swing in just a Table 1.
few days. The Keys to the White House demonstrate that

6 | Social Education | January/February 2024

politics as usual by the challenging candidate will circumstances are so fluid that I have made no
have no impact on results. Whether or not the sit- final prediction for the general election. However,
ting president is seeking reelection, the American unlike any other model at the onset of the election
electorate chooses a president according to how year, the Keys offer unique insight into the 2024
well the White House party has governed the contest (see Table 3 on p. 9). Despite grousing
nation, as measured by the consequential events among Democrats about Biden’s age and energy,
and episodes of a term. Nothing a candidate has he represents the best bet for a Democratic vic-
said or done during a campaign, when the public tory. With Biden running again, the incumbent
discounts everything as political, has changed his Democrats secure two Keys, Incumbency Key 3
prospects at the polls. Debates, advertising, televi- and Contest Key 2, because he lacks serious chal-
sion appearances, news coverage, and campaign lengers. Neither of his current opponents, author
strategies—the usual grist for the punditry mills— Marian Williamson and Minnesota Rep. Dean
count for virtually nothing on Election Day. Phillips, are likely to dent Biden’s overwhelming
The media spend hundreds of millions of dollars support among Democratic primary and caucus
covering presidential general election campaigns, voters. They would thus need six more nega-
like horse races, with candidates darting ahead tive Keys to become a predicted loser. If Biden
and falling behind, even before a single vote is doesn’t run, they lose the Incumbency and the
cast. This horse race coverage only promotes Contest Key because the party lacks an obvious
negative, shallow, soundbite-driven campaigns. heir apparent. Only four more Keys would have
to fall to predict the Democrats’ defeat. The White
Where the Keys Stand for 2024 House party has lost every election during the
As of this writing in late December 2023, past 100 years in which there is an open seat and

Table 1. The 13 Keys to the White House

The Keys are statements that favor the reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the
incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the effects major changes in national policy.
incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of
Representatives than it did after the previous midterm KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest
elections. during the term.

KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is
incumbent-party nomination. untainted by major scandal.

KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent
the sitting president. administration suffers no major failure in foreign or
military affairs.
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party
or independent campaign. KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent
administration achieves a major success in foreign or
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in military affairs.
recession during the election campaign.
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth
during the previous two terms. KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party
candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration

www.socialstudies.org | 7
Table 2. Published Keys Model Predictions for Elections from 1984 to 2020

Date of
Election Source
prediction
1984 April 1982 “How to Bet in ’84,” Washingtonian, April 1982
1988 May 1988 “How to Bet in November,” Washingtonian, May 1988
1992 September 1992 “The Keys to the White House,” Montgomery Journal, Sept. 14, 1992
1996 October 1996 “Who Will Be the Next President?” Social Education, Oct. 1996
2000 November 1999 “The Keys to Election 2000,” Social Education, Nov/Dec 1999
2004 April 2003 “The Keys to the White House,” Montgomery Gazette, April 25, 2003
2008 February 2006 “Forecast for 2008,” Foresight, Feb. 2006
“ Preliminary Forecast for 2012,” International Journal of Information Systems and
2012 January 2010
Social Change, Jan-March 2010
“ Trump is Headed for a Win, Says Professor Who Has Predicted 30 Years of Presidential
2016 September 2016
Outcomes Correctly,” Washington Post, Sept. 23, 2016
“He Predicted Trump’s Win in 2016, Now He’s Ready to Call 2020,” New York Times,
2020 August 2020
Aug. 5, 2020

an incumbent party nomination battle. No widespread social unrest that threatens the
Biden has locked in two other keys, Policy nation’s stability has emerged during Biden’s term.
Change Key 7 and Challenger Charisma Key The Republicans’ impeachment inquiry, launched
13. Biden made significant changes in the poli- on a straight party-line vote in the U.S. House,
cies adopted under President Trump. Through is a political maneuver with no basis in fact. The
executive orders, he rescinded much of Trump’s Republicans have been trying to pin something
orders on immigration and environmental regula- illegal on Joe Biden for years and have come up
tions and rejoined the Paris Accords on climate empty. Even their selected expert witnesses at
change. He pushed through Congress his most a recent hearing admitted that there was insuf-
crucial policy initiative, the tax reform and climate ficient evidence for an impeachment case against
change bill, without a single Republican vote. Biden. What Republicans are cynically trying to do
His infrastructure bill passed Congress with only without evidence is muddy the waters—to make
13 Republican votes in the House and 15 in the voters think that Trump is no worse than Biden.
Senate. There may be a backlash against Republicans for
None of the Republican aspirants for the pursuing what appears to be a partisan, political
presidential nomination is a broadly charismatic impeachment, just as there was a backlash against
candidate like, for example, Democrat Franklin Republicans for the 1998 impeachment inquiry of
Roosevelt or Republican Ronald Reagan. The Bill Clinton.
frontrunner, Donald Trump, is a consummate In terms of the economy, real per-capita
showman who commands media attention but economic growth during the Biden term thus far
appeals only to a narrow slice of the electorate substantially exceeds the record of the previous
rather than achieving broad appeal like Reagan. two terms. It would take an early and deep 2024
There were many Reagan Democrats, but virtually recession for the White House party to forfeit Key
no Trump Democrats. 6. For the election year, there is no recession cur-
Several other Keys lean in Biden’s favor: rently on the horizon. However, the economic situ-
Social Unrest Key 8, Scandal Key 9, Short-Term ation could change, especially if Republicans fail
Economy Key 5, and Long-Term Economy Key 6. to vote on a budget extension and shut down the

8 | Social Education | January/February 2024

government, with ripple effects on the economy, before November. Currently, the Keys slightly
perhaps toppling Key 5. favor Biden’s reelection. Biden would lose five—
Biden has lost two keys. He lost the Mandate one short of a predicted defeat—if the Keys fall as
Key 1, due to Republican gains in the 2022 mid- they now lean. However, economic forecasts are
term U.S. House elections. He also fails to secure notoriously problematic, and social unrest could
the Incumbent Charisma Key 12. Biden lacks always emerge before the election. Although
broad inspirational appeal. His approval ratings unlikely, it remains remotely possible that the
are among the lowest for any president, and his Republicans pin a scandal on the president.
age weighs against him. On the plus side for Biden, it is possible but
Three other keys lean against Biden: Third Party not likely that the Ukraine war could become a
Key 4, Foreign/Military Failure Key 10, and Foreign/ military and foreign policy success. It is also quite
Military Success Key 11. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has conceivable that the Kennedy campaign fizzles
exceeded the 10 percent threshold needed to turn once major party nominees are selected.
this Key in much early polling. However, the actual Beyond the scope of the Keys, there are two
test of his candidacy will come after the major party unique circumstances in 2024. At 81, Biden will
conventions. The war in Ukraine seems to have be the oldest major party presidential candidate
ground to a stalemate, with the American public in U.S. history, topping Ronald Reagan in 1984 by
increasingly skeptical of additional American aid 8 years. More significant are the unprecedented
to Ukraine. The war in the Middle East has wrought 91 felony indictments against Trump, including
death and destruction upon Palestinian civilians in charges that he subverted American democracy
Gaza with no end in sight. and jeopardized the nation’s security. These are
the most important indictments in the history of
What to Look for Before November the United States, more important than the indict-
Keep your eye on the big picture of the Keys and ments of the Watergate conspirators or the atomic
ignore the pundits and the pollsters. Although bomb spies.
a final prediction is not currently feasible, unlike Trump is a proven master of delay and may
other models, the Keys indicate what to look for succeed in postponing his trials until after the

Table 3. The 13 Keys to the White House: Current Standings

KEY NUMBER DESCRIPTION OUTCOME 2024
KEY 1 PARTY MANDATE FALSE
KEY 2 CONTEST TRUE
KEY 3 INCUMBENCY TRUE
KEY 4 THIRD PARTY LEANS FALSE*
KEY 5 SHORT-TERM ECONOMY LEANS TRUE*
KEY 6 LONG-TERM ECONOMY LEANS TRUE*
KEY 7 POLICY CHANGE TRUE
KEY 8 SOCIAL UNREST LEANS TRUE*
KEY 9 SCANDAL LEANS TRUE*
KEY 10 FOREIGN/MILITARY FAILURE LEANS FALSE*
KEY 11 FOREIGN/MILITARY SUCCESS LEANS FALSE*
KEY 12 INCUMBENT CHARISMA FALSE
KEY 13 CHALLENGER CHARISMA TRUE
* Keys with some possibility of changing before November.
TRUE: 4 KEYS; LEANS TRUE: 4 KEYS; FALSE: 2 KEYS; LEANS FALSE: 3 KEYS.

www.socialstudies.org | 9
election. However, if that ploy fails and Trump contests for the presidency and establish the
is tried and found guilty of serious felonies, this foundations for governing the country during the
will scramble the race for president in unknown next four years, thereby improving the prospects
ways, given the lack of historical antecedents for for themselves or their party to win another term.
analysis. Candidates should explain their vision for the
subsequent four years, specify the intended bills
Campaigning by the Keys and executive orders of their first 100 days, and
On a positive note, the Keys have implications indicate the kinds of persons they would elevate
for governing the country and conducting to the cabinet, the White House, and the Supreme
presidential campaigns. The Keys show that what Court.
counts in presidential elections is governing,
as measured by the consequential events of a
presidential term, not packaging, image making,
or campaigning. If candidates understood how Allan J. Lichtman is Distinguished Professor of
elections really worked, they would avoid the History at American University in Washington, D.C.
empty, scripted, and consultant-driven campaigns He is the author of Predicting the Next President: The
that the American people have too often endured. Keys to the White House (Rowman & Littlefield, 2020).
Instead, they would strive to conduct substantive He can be reached at Lichtman@american.edu.

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10 | Social Education | January/February 2024