35 – Investment appraisal

 Net present value: today’s value of the estimated cash flows resulting
from an investment.

35.1 what is meant by investment appraisal?

 Investment appraisal: evaluating the profitability or feasibility of an
investment project.

Investment means purchasing capital goods, such as equipment, vehicles and

new buildings, with the expectation of earning future profits. All businesses
make investment decisions. Many of these involve strategic issues, such as
relocation of premises or the adoption of computer-assisted engineering
methods.

Investment appraisal means assessing the profitability of an investment

decision. This is usually undertaken by using quantitative techniques. Managers
use investment appraisal methods to assess whether the likely future returns on
projects will be greater than the costs and by how much. Non-financial issues
can also be important and therefore qualitative appraisal of an investment
project is often undertaken too.

All business investments involve capital expenditure as a cash outflow.

Investment projects are undertaken because the business expects there to be a
return from them, in the form of cash inflows. There are received over the
useful life of the assets purchased. Quantitative methods of appraisal make
comparisons between the cash outflows or costs of the project and the expected
future cash inflows.

Quantitative investment appraisal: what information is

necessary?
When appraising the profitability of investment projects using quantitative
techniques, the following information will be required:

 Initial capital cost of the investment such as the cost of buildings and
equipment.
 Estimated life expectancy or the ‘useful life’ of an asset.
 Residual value of the investment – at the end of their useful lives, the assets
will be sold, leading to a further cash inflow.
 Forecasted net cash flows from the project. These are the expected returns
from the investment less its operating cost.

Very little of this financial data can be said to be certain. Therefore, the
quantitative techniques rely heavily of the reliability of financial estimates and
forecasts.

Forecasting cash flows in an uncertain environment

 Forecasted net cash flows: forecast cash inflows less forecast cash
outflows.

All of the techniques used to appraise investment projects require forecasts to be

made of future cash flows. These figures are referred to as forecasted net cash
flows.

It is assumed that the:

 Cash inflows are the same as the annual revenues earned from the project.
 Cash outflows are the initial capital cost of the investment and the annual
operating costs.

Forecasting these cash flows is not easy and is rarely likely to be 100%
accurate. With long-term investments, forecasts have to be made several years
ahead. There will be the risk of external factors reducing the accuracy of the
figures. For example, when appraising the construction of a new airport,
forecast of cash flows many years ahead are likely to be required. The possible
external factors affecting the revenue forecasts include:

 An economic recession could reduce both business and tourist traffic through
the airport.
 Oil prices rises could lead to higher prices for air travel reducing demand
levels.
 The construction of a new high-speed rail link might encourage some
travellers to switch to this form of transport.

Future uncertainties cannot be removed from investment appraisal calculations.

The possibility of uncertain and unpredicted events making cash flow forecasts
inaccurate must, however, be constantly considered by managers. All
investment decision involve some risk due to this uncertainty. The question is:
will the future profits from the project compensate for these risks?
35.2 Quantitative techniques: payback and
accounting rate of return
 Payback period: length of time it takes for the net cash inflows to pay
back the original capital cost of the investment.

Payback method
If a project costs $2 million and is expected to pay back $500,000 per year, the
payback period will be four years. This can then be compared with the paybacl
on alternative investments. It is normal to refer to ‘year 0’ as the time period in
which the investment is made. The cash flow in year 0 is therefore negative,
shown by a bracketed amount.

The table below shows the forecast annual net cash flows and cumulative cash
flows. The latter figure shows the running total of net cash flows. It becomes
less and less negative as further cash inflows are received. Notice that in year 3
it becomes positive, so the initial capital cost has been paid back during this
third year. But when during this year? If we assume that the cash flows are
received evenly throughout the year (this may not be the case, of course), then
payback will be at the end of the fourth month of the third year.

How do we know this? At the end of year 2, $50,000 is needed to pay back the
remained of the initial investment. A total of $150,000 is expected during year
3; $50,000 is one-third of $150,000 and one-third of a year is the end of month
4. To find out this exact month the formula is:
Why is the payback of a project important?
Managers can compare the payback period of a particular project with other
alternative projects so as to put them in rank order. The payback period can be
compared with a cut-off time period that the business may have laid down. For
example, they may not accept any project proposal that pays back after five
years. The decision for a cut-off time period may include the following reasons:

 A business may have borrowed the finance for the investment and a long
payback period will increase interest payments.
 Even if finance was obtained internally, the capital has an opportunity
cost of other purposes for which it could be used. The speedier the
payback, the quicker the capital is made available for other projects.
 The longer the payback period, the more uncertain the whole investment
becomes. The changes in the external environment that could occur to
make a project unprofitable are likely to be much greater over ten years
than over two.
 Some managers are risk averse. They want to reduce risk to a minimum,
so a quick payback reduces uncertainties for these managers.
 Cash flows received in the future have less real value than cash flows
today, owing to inflation. The more quickly money is returned, the higher
its real value.
 Evaluation of the payback method
The payback method is often used as a quick check on the viability of a project
or as a means of comparing projects. However, it is rarely used in isolation from
the other investment appraisal methods.
Advantages of payback method Disadvantages of payback method
 It is quick and easy to calculate.  It does not measure the overall profitability of a
 The results are easily understood by project. Indeed, it ignores all the cash flows after
managers. the payback period. It may be possible for an
 The emphasis on speed of return of investment to give a very rapid return of capital,
cash flows gives the benefit of but then to offer no other cash inflows.
concentrating on the more accurate  This concentration on the short-term may lead
short-term forecasts of the project’s businesses to reject very profitable investments
profitability. just because they take some time to repay the
 The result can be used to eliminate or capital.
identify projects that give returns too  It does not consider the timing of the cash flows
far into the future. during the payback period. This will become
 It is particularly useful for businesses clearer when the principle of discounting is
where liquidity is of greater examined in the final two appraisal methods.
significance than overall profitability.

Accounting rate of return

 Accounting rate of return (ARR): measures the annual profitability of
an investment as a percentage of the average investment (average capital
cost)

The accounting rate of return (ARR) may also be referred to as the average rate
of return. If it can be shown that Project A returns, on average 8% per year
while Project B returns 12% per year, then the decision between the alternative
investments will be an easier one to make.

Why is the ARR of a project important?

  Criterion rate: the minimum accounting rate of return that a business
would accept before approving an investment.

It shows to the business the, on average over the lifespan of the investment, the
annual return. This could be compared with:

 The ARR of other projects.

 The minimum expected return set by the business. This is called the
criterion rate.
 The annual interest one loans. If the ARR is less than the interest rate, it will
not be worthwhile taking a loan to invest in the project.

Evaluation of average rate of return

ARR is a widely used measure for appraising projects, but it is best considered
with payback results. The two results then allow consideration on both profits
and cash flow timings.

Advantages of ARR Disadvantages of ARR

 It uses all of the cash flows, unlike the  It ignores the timings of the cash flows.
payback method. This could result in two projects having
similar ARR results, but one could pay
 It focuses on profitability, which is the back much more quickly than the other.
central objective of many business
decisions.  As all cash inflows are included, the later
cash flows, which are less likely to be
 The result is easily understood and easy to accurate, are incorporated into the
compare with other projects that may be calculation.
competing for limited investment funds
available.  The time value of money is ignored as
the cash flows have not been discounted.
 The result can be quickly assessed against
the predetermined criterion rate of the
business.

35.3 Quantitative techniques: discounted cash flow

  Discounted cash flows: the present-day value of a future cash flow.

You should by now understand that managers may be uncertain which project to
invest in if the two basic methods of investment appraisal give conflicting
results. If project A is estimated to pay back at the end of year 3 at an ARR of
15%, should this be preferred to project B with a payback of four years but an
ARR of 17%?

Managers need another investment appraisal method that solves this problem of
trying to compare projects with different ARR and payback periods. The third
method considers both the size of net cash flows and the timing of them. It does
this by calculating discounted cash flows.

If the effects of inflation are ignored, a rational person would rather accept a
payment of $1 000 today instead of a payment of $1 000 in one year’s time. Ask
yourself which you would choose. The payment today is preferred for three
reasons:
 It can be spent immediately and the benefits of this expenditure can be
obtained immediately. There is no waiting involved.
 The $1 000 could be saved at the current rate of interest. The total of cash
plus interest will be greater than the offer of $1 000 in one year’s time.
 The cash today is certain, but the future cash offer is always open to
uncertainty.

This is taking the time value of money into consideration. Discounting is the
process of reducing the value of future cash flows to give them their value in
today’s terms. How much less is future cash worth compared to today’s money?
The answer depends on the rate of interest. If $1 000 received today can be
saved at 10%, then it will grow to $1 100 in one year’s time. Therefore, $1 100
in one year’s time has the same value as $1 000 today given interest rates at
10%. This figure of $1 000 is called the present-day value of $1 100 received in
one year’s time. Discounting calculates the present-day values of future cash
flows so that investment projects can be compared with each other by
considering today’s value of their returns.

Discounting: how is it done?

The present-day value of a future sum of money depends on two factors:
 The higher the interest rate, the less value future cash has in today’s
money.
 The longer into the future cash is received, the less value it has today.
These two variables, interest rates and time, are used to calculate discount
factors. They are available in discount tables. To use the discount factors to
obtain present- day values of future cash flows, multiply the appropriate
discount factor by the cash flow.

Net present value (NPV)

This investment appraisal method uses discounted cash flows. It is calculated by
subtracting the capital cost of the investment from the total discounted cash
flows. The three stages in calculating NPV are:
1. Multiply net cash flows by discount factors. Cash flows in year 0 are
never discounted, as they are present-day values already.
2. Add the discounted net cash flows.
3. Subtract the capital cost to give the NPV.
The working is clearly displayed in Table 35.8. The initial cost of the
investment is a current cost paid out in year 0. Current cash flows are not
discounted.

NPV is now calculated:

total discounted cash flows = $11 940
original investment = ($10 000
net present value = $1 940

What does this result mean? The project earns $1 940 in today’s money values.
So if the finance needed can be borrowed at an interest rate of less than 8%, the
investment will be profitable. What would happen to the NPV if the discount
rate was raised? If interest rates increased, the business would be advised to
discount future cash flows at a higher rate. This will reduce the NPV, as future
cash flows are worth even less when they are discounted at a higher rate. The
choice of discount rate is crucial to the assessment of projects using this method
of appraisal.
 Usually, businesses will choose a rate of discount that reflects the interest cost
of borrowing the capital to finance the investment. Even if finance is raised
internally, the rate of interest should be used to discount future returns. This is
because of the opportunity cost of internal finance as it could be used to gain
interest if left on deposit in a bank. An alternative approach to selecting the
discount rate is for a business to adopt a cut-off or criterion rate. The business
would use this to discount the returns on a project and, if the NPV is positive,
the investment could go ahead.

NPV declines as the rate of discount used increases.

Evaluation of the NPV

Advantages of NPV Disadvantages of NPV

 It considers both the timing of cash flows  It is reasonably complex to calculate and
and the size of them in arriving at an to explain, especially to non-numerate
appraisal. managers.

 The rate of discount can be varied to  The final result depends of the rate of
allow for different economic discount used, and expectations about
circumstances. For instance, the rate of interest rates may be wrong.
discount could be increased if there was a
general expectation that interest rates were  NPVs can be compared with other
about to rise. projects, but only if the initial capital cost
is the same. This is because the method
 It considers the time value of money and does not provide a percentage rate of
takes the opportunity cost of money into return on the investment.
account.

35.4 Investment appraisal decisions

Major investment projects will always be appraised in quantitative and financial
terms but there are other factors which will influence these important decisions
too.
Quantitative results and their impact on investment
decisions
Sections 35.2 and 35.3 examined the three main quantitative appraisal methods.
They focus on the speed with which the capital investment is returned and the
profit on an investment. Most businesses will establish investment criteria for
these three techniques which future projects must satisfy before approval for a
project is given. For example:

 Payback within three years.

 Accounting rate of return of at least 15%.
 Net present value of at least 15% of the original capital invested.

Even when these criteria are satisfied, a project might be rejected by senior
managers if there are non- quantitative reasons for not proceeding with it. These
are called qualitative factors.

Qualitative factors and their impact on investment

decisions
Investment appraisal techniques provide numerical data, which are important in
taking decisions. However, no manager can afford to ignore the other factors
that cannot be easily expressed in a numerical form but have a crucial impact on
a decision. These qualitative factors include:

 Impact on the environment and the local community. Environmental

pressure groups may force businesses to consider carefully plans for
developments in sensitive areas. Bad publicity stemming from a proposed
investment plan may dissuade managers from going ahead with a project
because of the long-run impact on brand image and sales. Corporate social
responsibility objectives may take priority over profit targets.

 Refusal of planning permission. This would prevent continuation of the

scheme. It is the duty of local planning officers to weigh up the costs and
benefits of a planned undertaking and to act in the best interests of the
community. The plans for an investment project might have to be heavily
revised before they are acceptable to local planning authorities.

 Aims and objectives of the business. For example, the decision to close
bank branches and replace them with internet- and telephone-banking
services involves considerable capital expenditure, as well as the potential
for long-term savings. Managers may, however, be reluctant to pursue these
investment policies if the objective of giving excellent and personal
customer service could be threatened.
 Impact on the workforce. A decision to replace large numbers of
employees with automated machinery may be reversed if employer–
employee relations could be badly damaged.

 Acceptability of risk. Different managers are prepared to accept different

degrees of risk. No amount of positive quantitative data will convince some
managers, perhaps as a result of previous experience, to accept a project that
involves a considerable chance of failure.

Comparison of investment appraisal methods