Aker & Mbiti (2010)
Aker & Mbiti (2010)
Aker & Mbiti (2010)
S
ub-Saharan Africa has some of the lowest levels of infrastructure investment
in the world. Merely 29 percent of roads are paved, barely a quarter of the
population has access to electricity, and there are fewer than three landlines
available per 100 people (ITU, 2009; World Bank, 2009a). Yet access to and use of
mobile telephony in sub-Saharan Africa has increased dramatically over the past
decade. There are ten times as many mobile phones as landlines in sub-Saharan
Africa (ITU, 2009), and 60 percent of the population has mobile phone coverage.
Mobile phone subscriptions increased by 49 percent annually between 2002 and
2007, as compared with 17 percent per year in Europe (ITU, 2008).
Mobile telephony has brought new possibilities to the continent. Across urban–
rural and rich–poor divides, mobile phones connect individuals to individuals,
information, markets, and services. In Mali, residents of Timbuktu can call rela-
tives living in the capital city of Bamako—or relatives in France. In Ghana, farmers
in Tamale are able to send a text message to learn corn and tomato prices in Accra,
over 400 kilometers away. In Niger, day laborers are able to call acquaintances
in Benin to find out about job opportunities without making the US$40 trip. In
Malawi, those affected by HIV and AIDS can receive text messages daily, reminding
them to take their medicines on schedule. Citizens in countries as diverse as Kenya,
Nigeria, and Mozambique are able to report violent confrontations via text message
to a centralized server that is viewable, in real time, by the entire world.
Mobile phone coverage in Africa has grown at staggering rates over the past
decade. In 1999, only 10 percent of the African population had mobile phone
coverage, primarily in North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia)
and South Africa (GSMA data for 2009).1 By 2008, 60 percent of the population
(477 million people) could get a signal, and an area of 11.2 million square kilome-
ters had mobile phone coverage—equivalent to the United States and Argentina
1
For data on mobile phone coverage and adoption, we will be using data from the GSM Association, an
association that represents the interests of the worldwide mobile communications industry.
Jenny C. Aker and Isaac M. Mbiti 209
combined.2 By 2012, most villages in Africa will have coverage, with only a handful
of countries—Guinea Bissau, Ethiopia, Mali, and Somalia—relatively unconnected
(GSMA data for 2008).
There have been huge disparities in the geographic rollout of this coverage,
prompting concerns over an intra-African digital divide (ITU, 2008). In 1999,
most African countries had no mobile phone coverage, and only Egypt, Morocco,
Senegal, and South Africa had coverage rates of over 40 percent. By 2008, however,
over 65 percent of the African population had access to mobile phone service, with
93 percent covered in North Africa and 60 percent in sub-Saharan Africa. Overall,
the expansion of mobile phone coverage has been the lowest in Ethiopia, Somalia,
and the landlocked countries of Central and West Africa.
While the telecommunications industry in the United States, Canada, and
Europe invested in landlines before moving to mobile phone networks, the mobile
phone has effectively leapfrogged the landline in Africa. After all, landlines require
that wires be installed on every road and into every community, with smaller lines
into every household. A full landline network can be prohibitively expensive, espe-
cially in countries with poor roads, vast distances, and low population densities.
Mobile phone coverage in sub-Saharan Africa, by contrast, is primarily provided via
a network of specialized base stations, which can provide service to a 5–10 kilometer
radius. (The right axis of Figure 1 shows the expansion of cell phone coverage in
sub-Saharan Africa.) Due to unreliable electricity supplies across Africa, the base
stations are primarily powered by diesel generators.
2
For comparison, there were approximately 8.2 million fi xed telephone lines in Africa in 1998,
covering 1.4 percent of the population. Between 1998 and 2008, a mere 2.4 million additional land-
lines were installed (ITU, 2009).
3
Detailed regression results and maps showing the spatial rollout of mobile phone coverage in Mozam-
bique and Niger over time are available by request from the authors.
210 Journal of Economic Perspectives
Figure 1
Number of Cell Phone Subscribers and Cell Phone Coverage in Sub-Saharan
Africa, 2000–2008
450 70%
400
376 60%
% of population with cell phone coverage (right axis)
350
Number of subscribers (millions)
50%
300 279
Percent of population
250 40%
200
200 30%
150 135
20%
100 82
Total number of subscribers (left axis)
52 10%
50 37
25
16
0 0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Sources: Mobile phone subscription data are provided by Wireless Intelligence. The percentage of the
population with mobile phone coverage is provided by GSMA.
Notes: “Mobile phone subscribers” are active SIM cards rather than individual subscribers. One
individual could have multiple SIM cards for different cell phone service providers, thereby potentially
inflating the total number of individual users within a particular country. “Cell phone coverage” refers
to having cell phone service in one’s area (being able to get a signal.)
service provider Safaricom projected that the mobile phone market in Kenya
would reach three million subscribers by 2020. Safaricom, alone, currently has over
14 million subscribers (Safaricom, 2009).
Mobile phone subscriptions on the continent have risen from 16 million in
2000 to 376 million in 2008 as shown on the left axis of Figure 1. This is one-third
of sub-Saharan Africa’s population. However, these figures potentially overesti-
mate the actual number of mobile phone users, because many individuals own
several handsets or have multiple subscriber identity module (SIM) cards. At the
same time, there could potentially be more than 376 million mobile phone users,
as sharing mobile phones is a common practice in Africa.
The increase in mobile phone subscriptions is all the more surprising consid-
ering the prevalence of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa and the price of mobile phone
handsets and services. Approximately 300 million Africans are classified as poor
(living on less than US$1 per day), with 120 million classified as “ultra-poor” (living
on less than US$0.50 per day) (Ahmed, Hill, Smith, Wiesmann, Frankenberger,
Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa 211
Figure 2
Number of Mobile Phone Subscribers as a Percentage of the Population, 2008
(countries arranged by Human Development Index, from low to high)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Niger
Sierra Leone
CAR
Mali
Burkina Faso
DRC
Chad
Burundi
Guinea-Bissau
Mozambique
Ethiopia
Guinea
Liberia
Gambia
Rwanda
Senegal
Eritrea
Zambia
Cote d’Ivoire
Benin
Malawi
Togo
Nigeria
Uganda
Lesotho
Djibouti
Mauritania
Cameroon
Ghana
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
Sudan
Kenya
Madagascar
Angola
Swaziland
Congo
STP
South Africa
Namibia
Botswana
Cape Verde
E. Guinea
Gabon
Mauritius
Low Human Development Index High Human Development Index
Source: Data on the number of mobile phone subscribers by country provided by Wireless Intelligence.
Notes: The graph reflects the percentage of mobile phone subscribers as a function of the total
population in the country (2008). Countries are sorted by ranking on the UN’s Human Development
Index, from a high of 74 (Mauritius) to 182 (Niger). CAR is the Central African Republic, DRC is the
Democratic Republic of Congo, and STP is Sao Tome and Principe.
Gulati, Quabili, and Yohannes, 2007). The price of the cheapest mobile phone
in Kenya, for example, costs half the average monthly income, whereas the price
of the cheapest mobile phone in Niger is equivalent to 12.5 kilograms of millet,
enough to feed a household of five for five days.
Figure 2 shows the number of subscribers as a percentage of the popula-
tion, by country. The countries are sorted in ascending order by their ranking
on the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI) (which combines measures of
income, health, and education), from 182nd (Niger) to 81st (Mauritius) (UNDP
2009). Even in those countries with a HDI ranking lower than 160th (denoted by
the dotted line in Figure 2), where the GDP per capita is less than US$761 (in
purchasing power parity), an average of 23 percent of the population has mobile
phone subscriptions.
212 Journal of Economic Perspectives
Table 1
Summary Statistics of Mobile Phone
Adoption and Use in Kenya
(portion of population)
of handsets and services were relatively high. But secondary adopters span the demo-
graphic spectrum—young and old, rich and poor, urban, and rural. By 2009, mobile
phone ownership included more poor, elderly, and rural individuals, in part facilitated
by the introduction of lower-priced handsets and lower-denomination airtime cards.
We identify five potential mechanisms through which mobile phones can provide
economic benefits to consumers and producers in sub-Saharan Africa. First, mobile
phones can improve access to and use of information, thereby reducing search costs,
improving coordination among agents, and increasing market efficiency. Second, this
214 Journal of Economic Perspectives
Table 2
Adoption and Use of Mobile Phones and M-Pesa
Wealth
Not poor 42.0% 64.6% 52.4% 46.0% 43.2%
Poor 7.0% 21.6% 18.7% 17.1% 9.4%
Gender
Female 23.0% 41.6% 35.5% 32.1% 24.7%
Male 32.4% 53.9% 42.5% 36.6% 35.3%
Residence
Rural 16.8% 35.9% 28.8% 25.9% 18.8%
Urban 49.2% 73.7% 62.2% 54.1% 54.8%
Education
Less than primary 8.9% 22.8% 16.4% 14.1% 9.4%
At least primary school 41.1% 65.0% 55.2% 49.2% 44.3%
Age
Under 55 29.3% 50.9% 42.4% 37.4% 32.9%
Over 55 14.5% 27.7% 20.2% 18.4% 11.9%
Financial access
No bank account 18.2% 33.9% 27.5% 23.9% 17.8%
Bank account 72.7% 86.3% 71.9% 65.2% 64.0%
Source: Data are from FinAcess 2006 and 2009 Surveys in Kenya.
Notes: M-Pesa is Kenya’s mobile money service. “Poor” is defined as individuals in the bottom two
wealth quintiles of an asset index.
How Mobile Phones Can Reduce Search Costs and Improve Markets
Examples of imperfect and asymmetric information abound in markets in sub-
Saharan Africa. As a result, households and firms use numerous avenues to search
for information in a variety of areas: input prices, output prices, jobs, potential
Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa 215
buyers and sellers, natural disasters, new technologies, politics, and the status of
friends and family members. Traditional search mechanisms include personal
travel, radio, and, to a much lesser extent, landlines, letters, newspapers, and
television. Of these, personal travel has often been the most common mechanism
used—primarily due to limited access to other alternatives. In Niger, for example,
89 percent of grain traders surveyed preferred obtaining price information by
visiting weekly grain markets, rather than listening to the weekly radio program
(Aker, 2008). However, personal travel requires transport and opportunity costs,
which can be relatively high with a combination of long distances and poor roads.
The rollout of mobile phones in sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade has
introduced a new search technology that offers several advantages. First, mobile
phones greatly reduce search costs. While mobile phones require an initial fixed cost,
the variable costs associated with their use are significantly lower than equivalent travel
and other opportunity costs. In Niger, for example, an average trip to a market located
65 kilometers away can take 2–4 hours roundtrip, as compared to a two-minute call.
Using a local daily wage of 500 CFA francs (US$1) per agricultural laborer in Niger,
mobile phones reduce search costs by 50 percent as compared with personal travel.
Mobile phones can also allow people to obtain information immediately and on a
regular basis, rather than waiting for weekly radio broadcasts, newspapers, or letters.
Furthermore, rather than being passive recipients of information, mobile phones
allow individuals and firms to take an active role in the search process, enabling them
to ask questions and corroborate information with multiple sources.
Finally, mobile phones are more accessible than other alternatives in terms
of cost, geographic coverage, and ease of use. While radios can be used across all
segments of the population (over 55 percent of sub-Saharan African households
listen to the radio weekly), they generally provide a limited range of informa-
tion.4 Newspapers are primarily concentrated in urban areas, are expensive (the
cost of private newspapers in Mozambique average US$1), and are inaccessible to
illiterate populations. Less than 19 percent of individuals in sub-Saharan Africa
read a newspaper at least once per week, with a much smaller share in rural areas.
As previously discussed, landline coverage has been limited, with less than one
landline subscriber per 1,000 people in 2008 (ITU, 2009). Access to other search
mechanisms, such as fax machines, e-mail, and Internet, is similarly low, primarily
due to their dependence upon landline infrastructure. On average, less than
4.2 percent of the African population has access to Internet (ITU, 2009).5
Search theory predicts that lowering search costs for output prices will change
the reservation prices of market agents and increase the number of markets over
4
Summary statistics for radio and newspaper usage are computed from the Demographic and Health
Surveys (DHS) data for 20 sub-Saharan countries.
5
There are a number of challenges to the development of the fi xed broadband in Africa and
hence Internet usage. Installation of broadband Internet access via Asymmetric Digital Subscriber
Lines (ADSL) is constrained by the limited number of fi xed telephone lines on the continent. 3G
mobile cellular networks may hold greater potential for many countries in the region. For example,
98 percent of Kenya’s 1.7 million Internet subscribers access the Internet using the mobile phone
network (CCK, 2009).
216 Journal of Economic Perspectives
which consumers and producers search (Baye, Morgan, and Scholten, 2007; Rein-
ganum, 1979; Stahl, 1989; Aker, 2008). The market equilibrium results of these
models can be ambiguous, depending upon different assumptions with respect
to consumers’ demand and the fixed or sequential nature of search and firm cost
heterogeneity (Baye, Morgan, and Scholten, 2007). Nevertheless, in general, the
sequential search models of Reinganum (1979), Stahl (1989), and Aker (2008)
predict that a reduction in search costs will decrease the variance of equilibrium
prices, thereby improving market efficiency.6 While improvements in information
will result in net welfare gains under standard assumptions, how these gains are
distributed among consumers, producers, and firms is theoretically ambiguous.
For example, lower search costs could improve traders’ welfare in the short term
as they take advantage of spatial arbitrage opportunities, but reduce some of their
welfare in the longer term as markets approach the law of one price. Similarly,
in markets where traders have local monopoly pricing power, increased access to
information could improve consumer welfare by disrupting this monopoly power,
but reduce traders’ welfare.
Figure 3 provides the intuition for effects of mobile phone coverage (and
hence lower search costs) on price dispersion and welfare under the assumption
of perfectly inelastic supply. Prior to the introduction of mobile phones, search
costs are prohibitively high and traders (or farmers) do not engage in arbitrage
between high ((H)) and low ((L)) production areas. Once mobile phones are intro-
duced, traders are able to learn about prices in each region and begin trading. In
the low-production region, consumers gain A + B while traders/producers lose A
and gain C.. This is a net gain of B + C,, a transfer of A from traders/producers to
consumers. In the high-production region, consumers lose D + E,, while traders/
producers gain D and lose F,, representing a net loss of E + F and a transfer of D
from consumers to traders/producers. The sum of consumer and producer surplus
rises with the reduction in search costs—suggesting that the overall net change is
positive—but the distributional effects are ambiguous. In a market with a highly
perishable commodity, such as fish or vegetables, lower search costs would also
coincide with less wastage, which is Pareto-improving as well.
Although the evidence on Africa is quite recent, an emerging body of litera-
ture assesses the role of information technology on market efficiency in developing
countries, primarily in agricultural markets (Abraham, 2007; Jensen, 2007; Aker,
2008; Aker, 2010; Muto and Yamano, 2009; Goyal, forthcoming). These studies
primarily focus on the relationship between mobile phone coverage and specific
outcomes, such as price dispersion across markets (Overå, 2006; Jensen, 2007;
Aker, 2010), market agents’ behavior (Aker, 2008; Muto and Yamano, 2009), and
producer and consumer welfare (Jensen, 2007; Aker, 2008).
A central concern in estimating the effect of mobile phones on market effi-
ciency is omitted variables bias, because it can be difficult to attribute changes in
6
Reinganum (1979) develops a model of sequential search and firm cost heterogeneity, whereas
MacMinn (1980) develops a model of fi xed sample search and firm cost heterogeneity. MacMinn shows
that a reduction in search costs can increase price dispersion.
Correction: This figure is reproduced from Jensen, Robert. 2007. “The Digital Provide: Information
(Technology), Market Performance and Welfare in the South Indian Fisheries Sector.” Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 122(3): 879 – 924. The authors regret that this source was omitted.
Jenny C. Aker and Isaac M. Mbiti 217
Figure 3
Mobile Phones, Search Costs, Arbitrage, and Welfare
Price Price
SupplyL SupplyH
P(Q L)
A B Demand
P(Q L+X) P(Q H−X )
Demand
C E
D
P(Q H )
F
7
Muto and Yamano (2009) estimate the effect of both household-level mobile phone adoption and
village-level mobile phone coverage on household participation. To correct for the endogeneity of the
adoption variable, the authors use village-level mobile phone coverage and household time-invariant
characteristics as instruments. One of the household-level instruments used is farm assets, which
could be strongly correlated with mobile phone adoption and market participation, the dependent
variable. Thus, the validity of the instrument is of some concern for household-level results.
Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa 219
8
Mohammed Ibrahim, the Sudanese businessman who established Celtel, a pan-African mobile group
now owned by Zain, stated: “Mobile phones could not work in Africa without prepaid because it’s a cash
society” (The Economist, 2009).
220 Journal of Economic Perspectives
and savings, and reducing risk (Grimard, 1997; De Weerdt and Dercon, 2006). At
a basic level, mobile phones improve communications among members of a social
network both within a country and across international boundaries. The reduction
in communication costs can increase the speed of information flows within the
network, thereby allowing them to respond better to shocks. Mobile phones also
allow households to obtain information about potential shocks, allowing them to
use such information to make planting and harvesting decisions, which can have
important effects on yields (Rosenzweig and Binswanger, 1993). Finally, improved
communications among members of a social network can also affect social
learning, which can in turn influence the rate of technology adoption, especially of
cash crops (Bandiera and Rasul, 2006; Conley and Udry, 2010). Existing economic
evidence on the impacts of mobile phones and social networks is limited, but this
has been extensively discussed in the field of sociology (de Bruijn, Nyamnjoh, and
Brinkman, 2009).
The potential for using mobile phones as a tool for economic development has
not gone unnoticed by African governments, donors, mobile phone companies,
and nongovernmental organizations. An emerging trend is the development of
mobile phone-based services and products that go beyond basic voice calls and text
messaging. While these services have often focused on entertainment applications
(“apps”) in wealthier countries, these applications are providing opportunities for
disseminating agricultural price information, monitoring health care, and trans-
ferring money in poorer countries. Some mobile-based services are being provided
entirely by the telecommunications sector, some entirely by the public sector, and
some through partnerships between the two.
We do not provide a comprehensive examination of mobile phone services
and development projects in Africa, but rather explore some current initiatives in
key thematic areas. Many of the innovations in these contexts are quite new, and so
available information focuses on emerging research in specific countries. As mobile
phone networks evolve to third-generation (3G) and fourth-generation (4G) systems
and more advanced yet inexpensive phones become available, the scope, sophistica-
tion, and impact of mobile application and services will continually expand.
9
A full list of countries with mobile money applications is provided at 〈http://www.wireless
intelligence.com/mobile-money/〉.
222 Journal of Economic Perspectives
10
These projects are more commonly referred to as “Information and Communication Technology
for Development,” or ICT4D.
Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa 223
call a hotline to ask questions about their child’s health status. Mobile phones have
been used in the collection, measurement, and monitoring of health data, such
as monitoring and tracking epidemics. For example, low-cost medical imaging
systems have used mobile phone technology to transmit data and images to a
central processor (Granot, Ivorra, and Rubinsky, 2008).
Mobile phones are facilitating access to agricultural market information,
in many cases replacing the message boards and radio programs of traditional
market information systems. In the francophone countries in West Africa, for
example, consumer prices for staple grains are broadcast weekly via radio for the
largest markets in the country. Yet in many cases, farmers live tens of kilometers
from the nearest large market and the data is up to six days old. Farmers in
countries as diverse as Niger, Senegal, and Ghana can now type in a code, send
a text message, and receive the price of a variety of goods immediately. Mobile
phones are also extending the reach of agricultural extension services; in Kenya,
Uganda, and India, farmers can call or text hotlines to ask for technical agricul-
tural advice.
Mobile phones have also been used as a regular part of election campaigns
around the world, from the United States to Thailand and Spain. Yet they have
served as a powerful tool to assist with election monitoring on the continent,
often overcoming logistical challenges of organizing volunteers and verifying
results. Prior to 2005, so-called “parallel vote tabulation” systems—an electoral
observation methodology that uses a representative sample of polling stations to
monitor and verify election results independently—received information from
trained observers via phone calls, radio, or messengers on motorbikes. In countries
with limited infrastructure and communications systems, this verification process
could take days, even weeks. During the elections in Ghana, 1,000 locally trained
observers in a parallel vote tabulation system were able to transmit voting results
via text message to a central system, resulting in almost instantaneous indepen-
dent verification of the election. It has been argued that the absence of parallel
vote tabulation and the timely and credible independent information it provides
contributed to the recent post-election violence in Kenya.
Mobile phones have been used in other ways to foster good governance, mainly
via voter education and citizen-based monitoring often called “crowdsourcing.”
Crowdsourcing—the idea of outsourcing a task to a large community or group
of people—allows regular citizens to report election abnormalities and violent
confrontations via text message or calls to a centralized server. In Kenya, such
citizen-based monitoring was mapped via a software called “Ushahidi” (“testimony”
in Swahili) to allow Kenyans to report post-election unrest via voice, text message,
and Internet and to map it, in real time, to the entire world.11 However, such systems
11
More recently, Ushahidi has been used for search, rescue, and recovery operations following the
January 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Individuals in Haiti sent text messages to report the locations of
survivors, which were then mapped and used by search and rescue teams. Additional information is
available at 〈http://haiti.ushahidi.com/alerts〉.
224 Journal of Economic Perspectives
depend primarily upon verification by other users, which raises possible questions
about their accuracy.
Simple and affordable mobile phones are being used as a means to promote
literacy for adults in Africa (Aker, 2009). Despite the fact that text messages are
one-seventh the price of voice calls in Niger, the use of text messages has been rela-
tively limited, in part due to high illiteracy rates. In addition to the normal literacy
curriculum, adult learners in Niger are taught where to find letters and numbers on a
mobile phone and how to send and receive text messages. Within one cycle of classes,
students are able to send text messages in local languages to their friends and family,
thereby allowing them to practice their newly acquired literacy skills. In a country
without local language newspapers and village-level libraries, text messaging makes
literacy functional. Preliminary results suggest that the mobile phone-based literacy
students have higher test scores than students in normal literacy classes, and these
results are maintained six months after the end of classes (Aker, Ksoll, and Lybberty
(2010). Similar mobile literacy projects are starting in Senegal, and others in India
are using smart phones and mobile games for children.
But while these studies provide some evidence of the positive relationship
between mobile phones and economic growth, they are plagued by endogeneity
problems. Mobile phone penetration rates are subject to significant measure-
ment error, leading to potential bias in the coefficient estimates. Perhaps more
importantly, finding credible exogenous instruments for mobile phone penetra-
tion in the context of a cross-country growth regression is a challenge. Waverman,
Meschi, and Fuss (2005) attempt to address these concerns by using lagged land-
line penetration as an instrument for current mobile penetration. Yet the same
(unobservable) factors that caused certain countries to have high lagged landline
penetration could also drive current mobile adoption and growth. This raises ques-
tions about the validity of the instrument and hence the direction of causality. If
we want to identify the magnitude of the impact of mobile phones on GDP growth
in Africa, more research addressing these endogeneity concerns is required. In
addition, to the extent that mobile phone adoption is associated with increases in
consumer surplus—as the current micro-level evidence seems to suggest—changes
in measured GDP will not capture the true welfare gains of this technology.
12
In each of the areas discussed, there will be short- and long-term impacts. For example, while mobile
phone technology improves market efficiency in the medium-term, firms and farmers may respond to
this improved efficiency by adopting different production processes.
226 Journal of Economic Perspectives
networks function. Both Olken (2009) and Jensen and Oster (2009) have found
that new technologies—in these cases, radio and television—have had positive and
negative impacts on social relationships and individuals’ behavior in developing
countries. Aker, Klein, and O’Connell (2010) find that the introduction of mobile
phones reduces the magnitude of a “border effect” across different ethnic regions
in Niger.13 Will mobile phones change the nature of these relationships in Africa,
and if so, how? Mobile phone technology can strengthen some social networks by
allowing individuals to communicate more frequently, and broaden other networks
as traders and firms conduct business in new markets. At the same time, mobile
phone technology could potentially weaken local social networks as individuals
become able to reach beyond their inner circle to access credit and services. Under-
standing the effects of mobile phones on these networks—and hence households
economic and social outcomes—will be of primary importance.
The impact of m-money systems on microeconomic and macroeconomic
outcomes is a rich area of research, especially as these systems expand their geographic
coverage and range of services. While m-money systems have the potential to create a
new class of currency as they grow in magnitude, the largest potential impact of these
systems is in the area of international money transfers. The World Bank estimates that
officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached US$338 billion
in 2008, with US$21 billion in transfers to sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank, 2009b).
M-money transfer systems could change the duration, frequency, and magnitude of
these remittances, thereby affecting households’ business opportunities, educational
investments, and income. The introduction of m-money transfers in sub-Saharan
Africa provides a unique opportunity to measure the impact of this service on migra-
tion patterns, remittance flows, and welfare outcomes.
Finally, mobile phone-based development projects are often based upon the
assumption that mobile phones can improve communication, coordination, and
service delivery. Yet the use of mobile phone technology in these contexts may
not always be Pareto-improving. Some nongovernmental organizations have begun
using mobile phones as a mechanism for distributing cash transfers. While this
approach could be more efficient, it is not without risks: it could potentially target
the wrong populations (if the individuals one would wish to target do not have
mobile phones) or increase beneficiaries’ risk (if they must travel to find an agent
to withdraw the cash). This suggests that the mobile-based approach might have
higher costs and lower benefits than the “low-tech” approach. Thus, rigorous
impact evaluations of m-development projects, in some cases using randomized
evaluations, are needed to determine whether, how, and under what conditions
mobile-based solutions are superior to their traditional counterparts.
There are two primary challenges to addressing this research agenda: data and
identification. To measure the determinants of mobile phone adoption as well as its
impacts on social networks, access to financial services, and remittances, reliable
and accurate data at the individual-, household-, and village-level are needed. Yet
13
A border effect measures whether or not international (or other) borders affect the degree of inte-
gration or price dispersion for the same good across two countries (or regions).
Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa 227
obtaining access to mobile phone coverage and usage data, even at aggregate levels,
is notoriously difficult and often bound by strict rules of nondisclosure and privacy
concerns. In such cases, researchers will need to partner with mobile phone service
providers and local institutions to collect such data, especially in Africa.14 Further-
more, in the absence of quasi-experiments or randomized rollout of mobile phone
coverage and services, credibly establishing causality is difficult, especially for
economywide services such as M-Pesa. Nevertheless, as nongovernmental organiza-
tions, mobile phone service providers, and donors pilot new interventions, there
are opportunities for researchers to partner with such organizations to conduct
evaluations of these projects using experimental or nonexperimental techniques.
14
The MIT Reality Mining Project, for example, has successfully partnered with mobile phone compa-
nies and collected mobile phone usage data from users in Rwanda and Kenya.
228 Journal of Economic Perspectives
Figure 4
Evolution of Cell Phone Market Structure in Africa, 1995–2009
100%
90% Monopoly
Partially deregulated
80% Fully liberalized
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Notes: Data are provided by the GSMA for various years. “Monopolies” refer to those countries whereby
all international mobile traffic was through an incumbent. “Partially deregulated” countries are those
where markets are deregulated (but no licenses were issued) or operators must send their mobile
traffic through another fi xed operator. “Fully liberalized” refers to markets where market operators
are granted their own international gateway licenses.
Africa, for example, calls between Kinshasa and Brazzaville (a distance of three
kilometers), were routed via London or New York. After the market was liberalized
in 2006, prices between the countries plummeted and call volumes spiked (GSMA,
2006). Overall, these patterns suggest that more competitive telecommunications
environments can be beneficial for poor consumers.15
Yet even if mobile phones can enhance access to resources and informa-
tion, they cannot replace investments in public goods such as roads, power, and
water. In fact, they are less effective without them. Without roads, a trader might
be able obtain better price information, but still be unable to transport goods to
15
A particular government might not want to support liberalized telecommunications markets as they
could improve access to information and threaten their authority. This could be the case in certain
countries in sub-Saharan Africa: 27 percent of non-democracies had a monopolistic telecommunica-
tions structure, as compared with 15 percent of democracies. (Many of the monopolies in democratic
countries are island countries, where multiple carriers might not be appropriate). Yet even democra-
cies struggle with mobile communication: in 2007, the Kenyan government briefly considered shutting
down text messaging as it was being used to incite violence (Goldstein and Rotich, 2008). Democracies
(as identified by Freedom House 2008 data) also had higher mobile coverage rates as compared to
nondemocracies: 43 percent mobile phone coverage, as compared with 31 percent for nondemocracies.
Jenny C. Aker and Isaac M. Mbiti 229
the market. Without power, a firm could receive more customer orders via mobile
phone, but would still have work hours limited by the available sunlight. In Nigeria,
due to continuing electricity problems, one mobile phone company had to deploy
its own power supply using generators in its 3,600 base stations—burning 450 liters
of diesel every second to keep its mobile towers operational. For economic develop-
ment to occur, complementarity between mobile phones and these other forms of
capital is needed.
Conclusion
Mobile phone usage in sub-Saharan Africa has grown significantly over the
past decade and now covers 60 percent of the population. Empirical evidence shows
that mobile phones have the potential to benefit consumer and producer welfare,
and perhaps broader economic development.
As the prices of both handsets and airtime continue to fall, the mobile phone
will complete its transformation from an elite status symbol to a necessity for adults
at nearly all income levels. Indeed, mobile operators are continuing to innovate in
their push to reach more subscribers. The price of handsets has also fallen and new
solar-powered phones have recently been introduced into the market. The chal-
lenge is now to ensure complementary access to public goods and the development
of appropriate policies to evaluate and propagate the benefits of mobile phones
throughout the continent.
■ We are grateful to the GSM Association, Wireless Intelligence, and the Financial Sector
Deeping Trust of Kenya (FSD Kenya) for providing data. We thank the editors David Autor,
Chad Jones, and Timothy Taylor for extensive comments on earlier drafts. We also thank Delia
Furtado, Heinrich Hock, Michael Klein, Daniel Millimet, Emily Oster, Andrei Shleifer, David
Weil, and seminar participants at the Center for Global Development, Université d’Auvergne,
the NBER Africa Project conference, and Stanford University for helpful comments and
suggestions. The authors acknowledge financial support from the NBER Africa Project.
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