2022 Annual Report
2022 Annual Report
2022 Annual Report
2022
Annual
Economic
Report
Contact:
Central Bank of Nigeria
Corporate Head Office
33, Tafawa Balewa Way
Central Business District
P.M.B. 0187
Garki, Abuja
Website: www.cbn.gov.ng
Tel: +234 (0) 700 225 5226
Contents
Statement by the Governor i
Executive Summary
1
Part 1: Activities of the Bank 5
1.0 Leadership 6
1.1 CBN Vision, Mission and Strategy 6
1.2 Governance Structure 8
1.3 Governors’ Profiles 9
1.4 Non-Executive Directors’ Profiles 12
1.5 Principal Organs and Officers of the Bank 14
2.0 Mandate Operations 17
2.1 Monetary Policy 17
2.2 Currency Management 20
2.3 Foreign Exchange Management 22
2.4 Surveillance of Financial Institutions 26
2.5 Banking and Payments System 41
2.6 Developmental Functions 46
3.0 Corporate Activities 50
3.1 Administration 50
3.2 Communication and Community Engagements 61
3.3 Research and Collaborative Activities 63
Part 2: Economic Report 67
4.0 The Global Economy 68
5.0 Developments in the Real Economy 75
6.0 Fiscal Policy and Developments 92
7.0 Financial Sector Policy and Developments 106
8.0 External Sector Developments 123
9.0 International Economic Relations 141
i
the productive base of the economy, with the aim of reversing the nation’s heavy reliance on imports. The
initiative is designed to create access to finance by households and enterprises with the potential to kick-
start a sustainable economic growth trajectory, accelerate structural transformation, promote
diversification, and improve productivity. The Bank disbursed the sum of N20.78 billion to nine (9) projects
in healthcare, manufacturing, and services. This brought the cumulative disbursements under the facility to
N114.17 billion in 71 projects across critical sectors of the economy at the end of 2022.
To enhance liquidity and ensure exchange rate stability, the Bank implemented various policies to curb the
demand pressures at the foreign exchange market, while sustaining its interventions in the market.
Consequently, the Naira maintained relative stability, closing at N450.71 per US$ at end-December 2022.
However, external reserves dropped by 9.1 per cent to US$36.55 billion at end-December 2022, from
US$40.23 billion at end-December 2021. The decline in external reserves position is attributed, largely, to
crude oil theft, thereby reducing foreign exchange earnings and accretion to reserves. Nevertheless, the
external reserves position covered more than 7 months of import of goods only, or 5.7 months of import of
goods and services, as against the international benchmark of 3 months of imports.
The banking industry remained sound and resilient, on the back of the effective supervisory framework and
the deployment of appropriate policy tools. Thus, the Non-Performing Loans ratio, which stood at 4.2 per
cent, at end-December 2022, remained within the regulatory threshold, but was lower than the 4.80 per
cent, at end-December 2021. This was despite the Bank’s aggressive credit expansion policies. Similarly, the
capital adequacy ratio of the banking industry stood at 13.8 per cent, at end-December 2022, higher than
the regulatory minimum, for banks with national authorization, as prescribed by the Prudential Guidelines
for Licensed Banks.
Given the growing pace of digitization, it is important that the Bank leverages digital channels to build a
robust payment system that will provide cheap, efficient, and faster means of transactions in Nigerian. Since
the launch of the e-Naira in October 2021, 33 banks have been fully integrated on the platform. About 2.2
million customers have been on-boarded with over 18,240 merchants successfully registered on the
platform across the country. As a result, over 939,000 transactions, amounting to about ₦12.40 billion, have
been recorded on the platform as at end-December 2022.
The positive economic indices highlighted above, were the result of the proactive and robust monetary and
exchange rate policies, and the development finance initiatives of the Bank designed to improve the
standard of living of the citizenry. Thus, during the year, the Bank sustained all its policies aimed at
addressing declining food security and facilitate economic development, and introduced new ones to
moderate the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s zero-COVID policy on the domestic economy.
The overall medium-term outlook for both the global and domestic economies in 2023 remain clouded by
uncertainties associated with the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, lingering COVID-19 pandemic, and
continued lockdown of major industrial cities in China. The persistent tightening of global financial
conditions and slowing global trade are also significant pointers to a weakening global economy. However,
available data on Nigeria’s key macroeconomic indicators suggest possible rebound in output growth for
ii
2023, which may occur at a much-slower pace than earlier anticipated, in the light of unfolding domestic
and external shocks to the economy.
The domestic shocks may originate from the persisting insecurity inhibiting economic agents; rising cost of
debt and debt servicing; deteriorating fiscal balances; increased spending as the 2023 general elections
approach; and continued uptrend in inflationary pressure. Consequently, efforts toward curbing the
increasing instances of oil theft, stemming the lingering insecurity across the country, mitigating the impact
of the perennial flooding in major food producing states, addressing infrastructural deficit in the country,
and boosting the productive base of Nigeria’s non-oil sector must be intensified. These efforts would
strengthen the domestic economic base, fast-track the attainment of economic diversification, limit the
reliance on foreign products, and insulate the economy against foreign shocks.
I want to use this medium to commend the Board, Management, and staff of the Bank for their support,
ingenuity, and diligent service during the year. The various successes recorded by the Bank could not have
been attained without their cooperation and dedication to duty. I also wish to appreciate President
Mohammadu Buhari and the National Assembly for the re-appointment and confirmation of Mrs. Aishah
Ahmad and Mr. Edward Lametek Adamu as Deputy Governors of the CBN. I thank the Presidency, the
distinguished leadership of the National Assembly, Honourable Ministers of the Federal Republic, Nigeria’s
development partners, the organised private sector, and other stakeholders, for their support and
cooperation through the year 2022. We look forward to 2023 with optimism for a more prosperous
economy.
Godwin I. Emefiele, CON
Central Bank of Nigeria.
iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This Report reviews developments in the global more inclusive financial system and enhance the
effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.
and domestic macroeconomic environment,
The milestones achieved included: the integration
policy responses, and operational activities of the
of all banks and a substantial number of Payment
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in 2022. The first
Service Providers (PSPs) with the eNaira platform;
part of the report focuses on the activities and
activation of one million wallets (including
operations of the Bank, while the second part
merchant wallets for major outlets); and,
evaluates the performance of both the global and
attainment of over 875,000 transactions,
domestic economies.
amounting to ₦11.83 billion, recorded on the
Part 1 – Activities and Operations of the Bank platform. The eNaira USSD Code (*997#) was also
launched to engender financial inclusion and avail
The Monetary Policy Committee Nigerians, opportunities to endless possibilities
through financial services.
The Bank’s monetary policy stance, in 2022,
focused on reining-in inflation, while supporting The Bank sustained its intervention in the foreign
economic growth. Accordingly, the Monetary exchange market to boost liquidity and ensure
Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Monetary exchange rate stability. In addition, the Race to
Policy Rates (MPR) four times by a cumulative 500 US$200 billion (RT200) programme, among
basis points to 16.50 per cent, while the others, was introduced to further diversify the
asymmetric corridor was retained at +100/-700 sources of foreign exchange inflow and increase
basis points around the MPR, for the Standing the contribution of non-oil export to external
Lending Facility (SLF) and Standing Deposit reserves.
Facility (SDF), respectively. The Cash Reserve
Ratio (CRR) was also raised by 500 basis points to As part of the Bank’s regulatory and supervisory
32.5 per cent, while the liquidity ratio was oversight of the institutions under its purview, the
retained at 30.0 per cent. parallel run of Basel II with Basel III
implementation, which commenced in November
Mandate Operations 2021, progressed to the next phase in 2022. The
Pursuant to its mandate as issuer of legal tender current phase involved: the review of feedback
currency, the Bank embarked on a currency received from banks to update the relevant CBN
Basel III Guidelines; and the review and
redesign exercise of the ₦200, ₦500, and ₦1000
banknotes. The policy was aimed at addressing adjustment of five Basel III CBN Reporting
the hoarding of banknotes, the shortage of clean Templates for full implementation of the
banknotes in circulation, and the risk of standards in Nigeria.
counterfeiting, as well as enhance monetary In 2022, the Bank issued regulatory documents
policy transmission. for compliance to strengthen the Anti-Money
The Bank sustained its effort to deepen the Laundering Countering Terrorist Financing and
adoption of the eNaira in order to promote a Countering Proliferation Financing of weapons of
1
mass destruction (AML/CFT/CPF). This was also productive export-focused economy; and a
in line with the Mutual Evaluation Report (MER) deeper & broader financial system.
issued by the Inter-Governmental Action Group
against Money Laundering in West Africa (GIABA) The Bank continued to strengthen its legal and
in 2020. regulatory framework to improve the overall
effectiveness of the financial system in line with
To further improve the payments system its mandate. To this end, several agreements,
landscape, the Bank issued new regulations and guidelines, and Memoranda of Understanding
guidelines to ensure greater security and (MoUs), were drafted and reviewed. Relevant bills
efficiency of the payments infrastructure and from the National Assembly were also reviewed.
promote interoperability. As part of efforts to
implement the Payments System Vision 2025 Part 2 - Macroeconomic Developments
(PSV2025) Strategy, the Regulatory Sandbox The Global Economy
Steering and Technical committees were set up to
provide effective governance for the initiative. Global growth slowed in 2022, induced by the
Russia-Ukraine war, China’s Zero-COVID policy,
The Bank sustained its intervention programmes and the hike in policy rates to curtail inflation. The
aimed at stimulating the economy through IMF projected the global economy to grow at a
affordable and accessible credit to priority slower pace of 3.4 per cent in 2022, down from
sectors. The year also witnessed increased efforts 6.2 per cent in 2021. Growth in the advanced
at credit recovery, following the expiration of the economies (AEs) slowed to 2.7 per cent, from 5.4
extended moratorium, which commenced in per cent in 2021. Similarly, economic activities in
2020, as part of measures to cushion the impact the Emerging Market and Developing Economies
of the COVID-19-related restrictions on economic (EMDEs), decelerated to 3.9 per cent, from 6.7 per
activity. cent in 2021.
Corporate Activities Inflation across the globe soared in 2022, owing
The Bank executed its strategic initiatives by to a combination of supply and demand factors.
leveraging information technology in the pursuit In the AEs, inflation rose to 7.2 per cent, from 3.1
of its mandate. The Bank intervened in the per cent in 2021. Also, in the EMDEs, inflation
education and health sectors of the economy in followed a similar trend, rising to 9.9 per cent,
line with its corporate social responsibility. from 5.9 per cent in 2021.
The CBN strategy 2021 – 2024 was unveiled in In response to price developments, monetary
February 2022. The Strategy focuses on policy tightening ensued throughout the year, as
strengthening and increasing the impact of the central banks in the AEs and EMDEs hiked policy
Bank's policies to promote economic growth and rates to rein-in inflationary pressures, resulting to
tight global financial conditions.
development. The strategy was aimed at closing
five key value gaps to achieve: low inflation; Complementarily, fiscal support waned in 2022,
stable exchange rate; low cost of borrowing; a as focus shifted to containing inflationary
2
pressure, particularly in countries with limited US$75.52 billion in 2022, compared with
fiscal space. US$70.30 billion in 2021, owing to the higher
incurrence of financial liabilities and depletion in
Global headwinds also influenced developments external reserves. The annual average exchange
in the commodity markets, as the average price rate of the Naira per US dollar at the Investors’ &
of the OPEC basket of 13 crude streams, rose by Exporters’ (I&E) window was ₦425.98 up from
43.4 per cent to US$69.81per barrel (pb) on the
₦408.96 in 2021.
back of increased demand, geopolitical tensions
in Europe, and supply disruptions emanating from Fiscal policy in 2022 was influenced, largely, by
the Russia-Ukraine war. Similarly, the average the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on
Light (34.9o API), rose by 47.5 per cent to international trade. The development impeded
US$104.62 pb in 2022, from the preceding year’s the achievement of revenue targets for the year,
average of US$70.91 pb. necessitating budget supplementation and
additional borrowings, to finance budgeted
The Domestic Economy expenditure. At ₦12,824.97 billion (6.2 per cent of
Despite developments in the global commodity GDP), provisional federally collected revenue
markets, the external sector weakened in 2022, (gross)1 improved by 19.2 per cent, relative to the
owing to the global supply chain disruptions receipts in 2021. However, it fell short of the 2022
occasioned by the Russia-Ukraine war. budget target by 30.3 per cent on account of
Accordingly, an overall balance of payments lower crude oil sales and exports. The fiscal
deficit of 0.7 per cent of GDP was recorded, operations of the general government resulted in
against a surplus of 0.1 per cent of GDP in 2021. an overall deficit of 5.1 per cent of GDP. Similarly,
The current and capital account, on the other the provisional overall deficit of the FGN was 4.4
hand, recorded a lower surplus of 0.2 per cent of per cent of GDP, compared with 4.0 per cent of
GDP, compared with 0.4 per cent of GDP in 2021, GDP in 2021. The consolidated public debt stock
due to a trade surplus and higher inflow of at end-December 2022, stood at ₦46,250.37
remittances. The financial account recorded a billion or 23.2 per cent of GDP, an increase of 16.9
lower net incurrence of financial liabilities, per cent over the level at end-December 2021.
equivalent to 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2022, relative The rise was attributed to the financing of FGN
to 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2021. legacy debt and new borrowings by both the
Federal and sub-national governments to part-
The stock of external reserves at end-December finance the deficit in the 2022 Appropriation Act
2022 was US$36.61 billion and could finance 7.5 and execute new projects.
months of imports for goods only, or 5.7 months
of import of goods and services. The International The Bank adopted a hawkish policy stance for
Investment Position (IIP) showed a higher net most parts of the year, to manage banking system
borrowing position with a financial liability of liquidity and rein-in inflationary pressure.
Nonetheless, sustained credit to support
1Earnings
lodged in the Federation Account by virtue of Section 161 of the
1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, as amended.
3
businesses and households contributed to a
growth in broad money supply (M3) above the
target for 2022. Consequently, broad money
supply (M3) increased by 17.3 per cent at end-
December 2022, above the 14.2 per cent growth
at end-December 2021, owing to the growth in
net domestic assets.
4
PART 1:
Activities of the Bank
“The current economic and structural challenges demand a shared and urgent
focus by all stakeholders from the Government, the private sector, and the citizens.
On its part, the Bank is committed to be part of solving the fundamental economic
problems confronting the nation”
5
LEADERSHIP
CBN Strategy
Mission Core Values
“To ENSURE monetary, price, and
financial system stability as a
catalyst for inclusive growth and Integrity
CBN: 2021-2024
sustainable economic development”
Partnership
Vision Accountability
“To be a people-focused Central Courage
Bank promoting confidence in the
economy and enabling an
improved standard of living”
Tenacity
Price
stability
Resilience
Catalyst for
against
productivity
shocks
6
Governor’s Strategic Focus (2019-2024)
Strategy
7
GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE
8
GOVERNORS’ PROFILES
9
Aishah N. Ahmad (Mrs.), CFA, CAIA
Deputy Governor, Financial System Stability Board
Member
Since 23 March 2018.
Aishah Ahmad is a seasoned financial policy expert with
experience spanning over twenty years. She is an
Honorary Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of
Nigeria (CIBN) and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst
(CFA) and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst
(CAIA) designations. She has held many leadership
positions across private wealth, investment
management, and banking in major financial
institutions, including Executive Director at the then
Diamond Bank PLC. She obtained a bachelor’s degree in
Accounting from the University of Abuja, MBA (Finance)
from the University of Lagos, and MSc. in Finance and
Management from Cranfield University, UK. She is also
an alumnus of Executive Education at Harvard Kennedy
School.
Edward L. Adamu
Deputy Governor, Corporate Services
Board Member
Since 23 March 2018.
Mr. Edward Adamu is a strategy and knowledge
management specialist with over 35 years of
professional experience. Prior to his appointment as
Deputy Governor, he was Director, Strategy
Management and Director of the Human Resources
Departments, at the Central Bank of Nigeria, having
risen through the ranks. He holds a B.Sc. degree in
Quantity Surveying from the Ahmadu Bello University,
Zaria and has received several certifications from
world-class institutions, including the Executive
Certificate in Economic Development from the
Harvard Kennedy School. Mr. Adamu is a fellow of the
Nigerian Institute of Quantity Surveyors and the
Institute of Credit Administration.
10
Folashodun A. Shonubi
Deputy Governor, Operations
Board Member
Since 17 October 2018.
11
NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECT ORS’ PROFILES
Adeola S. Adetunji
Non-Executive Prof. Ummu A. Jalingo
Director Non-Executive Director
Board Member Board Member
Since 7 July 2018. Since 7 July 2018.
12
Ahmed Idris Aliyu Ahmed
Accountant Board Member
General of the
Permanent
Federation
Board Member Secretary, Federal
Since 7 July 2018. Ministry of Finance
Since 25 September
2020.
13
Principal Organs and Officers of the Bank
(as of 31 December 2022)
Members of the Board of Directors of the Bank
1 Godwin I. Emefiele, CON - Governor (Chairman)
2 Aishah N. Ahmad - Deputy Governor (Financial System Stability)
3 Edward L. Adamu - Deputy Governor (Corporate Services)
4 Folashodun A. Shonubi - Deputy Governor (Operations)
5 Kingsley I. Obiora - Deputy Governor (Economic Policy)
6 Adeola S. Adetunji - Non-Executive Director
7 Ahmed Idris* - Non-Executive Director
8 Aliyu Ahmed - Non-Executive Director
9 Ummu A. Jalingo - Non-Executive Director
10 Justitia O. Nnabuko - Non-Executive Director
11 Michael I. Obadan - Non-Executive Director
12 Abdu Abubakar - Non-Executive Director
Alice Karau - Secretary to the Board
*Suspended from office by the President on 18 May 2022
14
Principal Officers of the Bank as of 31 December 2022
Departmental Directors
1 Samuel C. Okojere - Banking Services
2 Haruna B. Mustapha - Banking Supervision
3 Elizabeth O. Fasoranti - Branch Operations
4 Muhammad A. Abba - Capacity Development
5 Rashida J. Monguno - Consumer Protection
6 Osita C. Nwanisobi - Corporate Communications
7 Alice Karau - Corporate Secretariat
8 Ahmed B. Umar - Currency Operations
9 Philip Y. Yusuf - Development Finance
10 Benjamin A. Fakunle - Finance
11 Angela A. Sere-Ejembi - Financial Markets
12 Chibuzo A. Efobi - Financial Policy and Regulation
13 Joseph G. Omayuku - Governors
14 Amina A. Habib - Human Resources
15 Rakiya S. Mohammed - Information Technology
16 Lydia I. Alfa - Internal Audit
17 Sirajuddin K. Salam-Alada - Legal Services
18 Abdulkadir A. Jibril - Medical Services
19 Hassan Mahmud - Monetary Policy
20 Nkiru E. Asiegbu - Other Financial Institutions Supervision
21 Musa I. Jimoh - Payments System Management
22 Arinze A. Stanley - Procurement and Support Services
23 Michael A. Adebiyi - Research
24 Benjamin C. Nnadi - Reserve Management
25 Blaise Ijebor - Risk Management
26 Oluwakemi Osa-Odigie* - Security Services
27 Mohammed M. Tumala - Statistics
28 Clement O. Buari - Strategy Management
29 Scholastica O. Nnaji - Trade and Exchange
30 Olorunsola E. Olowofeso ** - West African Monetary Institute
31 Abubakar A. Kure*** - NIRSAL Microfinance Bank
*Retired on 6 October 2022.
**On Secondment.
***On Posting.
15
Special Advisers to the Governor as of 31 December 2022
1 Emmanuel U. Ukeje Economic Matters
2 Ebipere Clark Energy Sector
3 Yakubu Umar Islamic Finance
4 Oluwatoyin M. Fasheitan Payments
5 Aisha U. Mahmoud Sustainable Banking
16
2.0 MANDATE OPERATIONS
2.1 MONETARY POLICY
N'bn
15,000
from the sale of crude oil as well as the naira
10,000
redesign policy. 5,000
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2.1.2 Monetary Operations
To ensure monetary and price stability, the Bank Subscription Sale
adopted a hawkish policy stance, for the most Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
interest payments on deposits increased to 2021 (Average) 12.74 12.13 12.29 8.49 11.5
compared with N60.52 billion in 207 transaction Apr 8.67 7.49 8.40 8.18 11.50
days in 2021, with an average daily interest of May 6.70 9.39 10.40 9.51 13.00
Per cent
20
25
15 Consequently, the Nigerian Security Printing and
24.8
10
24.6
Minting Company (NSPM Plc) delivered a total of
5 24.4 1,818.82 million pieces of banknotes,
0 24.2 representing 73.0 per cent of the indent as of 31
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
December 2022. Notably, the indent of the lower
AVTD PLR MLR SPRD (rhs) denominated banknotes was fully achieved,
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria. while that of the higher denominated banknotes
(₦200, ₦500, ₦1000) was halted in Q3 2022, due
2.2 CURRENCY MANAGEMENT to the currency redesign policy.
2.2.1 Issuance of Legal Tender Currency
In light of the above, the production of the initial
2.2.1.1 Currency Redesign
order of 500.0 million pieces of the redesigned
The Bank embarked on a currency redesign
banknotes commenced in Q3 2022, of which
exercise of the ₦200, ₦500, and ₦1000
280.0 million pieces were delivered as of 31
denomination banknotes. It was launched by the
December 2022.
President on 23 November 2022. The rationale
for the currency redesign emanated from the Furthermore, 68.58 million of lower
shortage of clean and fit banknotes, denominated ‘good-over’ banknotes were
counterfeiting, and the prolong period the last delivered by NSPM Plc in 2022.
exercise was carried out.
.50K 0.34 681.48 0.34 681.48 0.34 681.48 0.34 681.48 0.34 681.48
.25K 0.09 348.23 0.09 348.23 0.09 348.23 0.09 348.23 0.09 348.23
.10K 0.03 315.58 0.03 315.58 0.03 315.58 0.03 315.58 0.03 315.58
1K 0.00 31.37 0.00 31.37 0.00 31.37 0.00 31.37 0.00 31.37
TOTAL 0.46 1,376.66 0.46 1,376.66 0.46 1,376.66 0.46 1,376.66 0.46 1,376.66
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
US$ Billion
The foreign exchange market witnessed 3.00
persistent demand pressure amid supply 2.00
shortages. Consequently, policies and 1.00
programmes were implemented by the Bank to 0.00
Feb-22
Feb-21
Sep-21
Apr-22
Sep-22
Apr-21
Aug-21
Aug-22
May-21
May-22
Jun-22
Jun-21
Jul-21
Jul-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
Jan-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Dec-21
Nov-22
Dec-22
Oct-21
Oct-22
support the market, boost liquidity, and ensure
exchange rate stability. These policies focused
majorly on enhancing non-oil export receipts. Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
US$ Billion
32.9
the balance of 18.9 per cent. A breakdown shows
40.1 29.9
that, outflow through the Bank fell by 9.0 per
-3.1
cent to US$32.94 billion, compared with
2021 2022
US$36.20 billion. However, outflow through Inflow Outflow Netflow
autonomous sources rose significantly by 45.8 Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
per cent to US$7.69 billion, relative to the level in
2021, due to the 64.7 per cent and 44.8 per cent 2.3.3 Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange
increase in payments for visible and invisible Aggregate utilisation of foreign exchange by
import, respectively.
economic sectors rose, driven by increased visible
import. Foreign exchange utilisation by major
A net inflow of US$33.49 billion was recorded
economic sectors, rose by 4.3 per cent to
through autonomous sources, compared with
US$29.21 billion in 2022, compared with
US$52.39 billion in 2021. The CBN, however,
US$28.02 billion in 2021. The development was
recorded a net outflow of US$3.05 billion, in
attributed, mainly, to increased utilisation for
contrast to a net inflow of US$3.86 billion in 2021.
productive activities in the industrial,
manufactured products, oil, and mineral sectors.
Figure 2.3.2a: Foreign Exchange Flows through the
Economy, 2021 - 2022 (US$ Billion) Figure 2.3.3a: Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange,
2021- 2022 (US$ Billion)
80
60
US$ Billion
56.3
US$ billion
41.5 30.4 40
40.6
97.7 71.1 20
0
2021 2022 2021 2022
Inflow Outflow Netflow
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria. Visibles Invisibles Total
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria .
FOOD
PRODUCTS FINANCIAL
15.3% SERVICES
69.2%
40.2
14
41
12
40 At end-December 2022, the net asset value of the
38.1
US$ Billion
Months Of Import
39 10
9.2
36.6
36.5
38 8
7.5
6.6
A self-assessment report on cyber security is The total number of credit facilities on the CRMS
to be submitted to the CBN not later than database increased by 48.3 per cent to 43.32
31st March every year; million at end-December 2022, from 29.21
Submission of all cyber incident reports to million at end-December 2021. The number of
the CBN within 24 hours; credit facilities comprised 42.23 million and 1.09
million individual and non-individual borrowers,
Establishment of policies and procedures for respectively.
risk profiling of customers and products;
The Bank also organised AML/CFT/CPF Similarly, the seven risk mitigants assessed were
awareness trainings for 4,681 officers from corporate governance/board of directors, risk
4,061 financial institutions and conducted joint management, policies and procedures, internal
AML/CFT/CPF examinations of over 1,200 audit/control and external audit, compliance,
Bureaux de Change across the country. In monitoring of suspicious transactions, as well as
addition, a dedicated webpage for hosting training. The risk mitigants for all the banks were
AML/CFT/CPF content on the CBN website was generally rated “Acceptable”. Out of the 32 banks
created in the review period. examined, 14 (44.0 per cent) were rated
“Moderate Risk”, while 18 (56.0 per cent) were
rated “Above Average Risk”.
2.4.8 Routine, Special, and Target Examinations
The Joint CBN and NDIC Risk Assets Examination The focus of the 2022 AML/CFT/CPF RBS
(RAE) of 32 (commercial, merchant, and non- Examination was influenced by the findings from
interest) banks, was carried out to assess the the GIABA Mutual Evaluation Report. Areas of
quality of banks’ risk assets and ensure the concern highlighted in the report, such as
adequacy of loan loss provisioning, prior to proliferation financing, targeted financial
approval for publication of banks’ audited sanctions, terrorism financing, and non-profit
financial statements for the year ended 31 organisations were specifically assessed during
December 2021. the examination.
• attended a workshop organized by the Bank of The Bank conducted routine foreign exchange
England/Bank AL Maghrib on Cyber Resilience examination of 29 Authorised Dealers (ADs)
for Central Banks at the Training Centre in comprised of 25 commercial and four merchant
Rabat, Morocco from 28 -29 November 2022; banks to ensure compliance with the extant
foreign exchange rules and regulations, and
• attended the 44th ordinary meeting of the
utilisation of foreign exchange acquired for
Association of African Central Banks (AACB)
eligible transactions, The examination was
organized by the Central Bank of the Gambia
conducted both remotely and on-site.
on 5 August 2022; and
• attended the 20th Annual meeting of the Some of the significant infractions observed
Committee of Banking Supervisors of West during the examination included: non-automaton
and Central Africa (CBSWCA) hosted by the of FX blotters; failures to repatriate unutilised FX
Central African Banking Commission (COBAC) purchases; improper maintenance of export
in N’Djamena, Chad from 24 - 25 November proceeds registers; incomplete documentation;
2022. breaches of the foreign currency trading position
(FCTP) limit; and unreconciled items in banks’
nostro accounts. The examination reports have
been issued, and appropriate penalties were
In another development, the CBN presented a
imposed, where the responses were deemed
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to the
inadequate.
Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA) for
ratification. Similarly, the CBN forwarded a draft
2.4.12 Domestic Systemically Important Banks
MoU to the Bank of Ghana for ratification.
6
3.4 3
The industry baseline assets and liabilities 4
2
0.9
maturity profile at end-December 2022, revealed 2 0.2
0
that the shorter end of the market (≤90-day Baseline Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023
bucket) was adequately funded. The cumulative
Mild Moderate Severe
position for the industry showed a mismatch of
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
N3.27 trillion assets over liabilities, indicating a
3.7 per cent reduction in mismatch below the
Table 2.4.3: Impact of Selected Shocks on CAR, ROA
level in the preceding period. and ROE
Banking Industry (Per cent)
Table 2.4.2: Maturity Profile of Assets and Liabilities at Baseline ROA 0.22
end-December 2022 (Billion naira) Baseline ROE 3.08
Cumulative
Bucket Liabilities Assets Mismatch
Mismatch
Impact of Downward Shift in Yield
Curve Shocks on CAR
≤30 days 36,484.28 23,213.32 13,279.12 13,279.12
500 bps downward shift in yield curve 11.84
31-90 days 4,867.78 4,012.08 867.41 14,146.54 1000 bps downward shift in yield curve 11.12
91-180 days 1,960.54 3,832.21 -1,852.22 12,294.32 Impact of Downward Shift in Yield
Curve Shocks on ROA
181-365
1,435.40 5,263.77 -3,806.62 8,487.70
days 500 bps downward shift in yield curve -0.14
1-3 years 2,272.33 5,977.89 -3,683.93 4,803.77 1000 bps downward shift in yield curve -0.5
>3 years 3,528.65 11,645.45 -8,076.28 -3,272.51
Impact of Downward Shift in Yield
Curve Shocks on ROE
Total 50,548.98 53,944.72
500 bps downward shift in yield curve -1.98
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria. 1000 bps downward shift in yield curve -7.05
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Under the severe scenario of sustained
significant contraction in GDP of 2.3 per cent, 2.5 The stress test on the net position of interest-
per cent and 1.9 per cent, in the first, second, and sensitive instruments showed that the industry
fourth quarters of 2023, the banking industry CAR maintained a stable solvency position to interest
would fall to 0.9 per cent, 0.2 per cent, and 3.4 rate shock of “up to 1,000 basis points downward
per cent, respectively. The impact of these shift in yield curve”, as the post-shock CAR
scenarios on CAR of the banking industry was declined from 14.5 per cent to 11.1 per cent. It
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Baseline CAR 500 bps downward 1000 bps downward
shift in yield curve shift in yield curve
2.00
0.22 -0.14 -0.5
0.00
-2.00
-1.98
-4.00
-6.00
Table 2.4.6 RBS Examination Reports of the Systemically Important Other Financial Institutions
Composite Risk Prudential and Soundness
OFIs NPL Earnings Rating Capital Rating
Rating (CRR) Analysis
2 = Moderate Average NPL Ratio 3 = Acceptable 2 = Acceptable Average CAR and liquidity
Primary Mortgage 4 = Above Average of 22.1 per cent 3 = Needs 5 = Needs ratio of 10.4 per cent and
Banks was below the Improvement Improvement 43.1 per cent, respectively
5 =High
regulatory 5 = Weak 4 = Weak were above the regulatory
maximum of 30.0 benchmark of 10.0 per cent
per cent. and 20.0 per cent
9 = Moderate Average NPL ratio 3 = Strong 6 = Strong Average CAR was 7.5 per
Finance Companies 17 = Above of 20.0 per cent 18 = Acceptable 18 = Acceptable cent, which was below the
Average was above the 23 = Needs 10 = Needs 12.5 per cent regulatory
35 = High regulatory Improvement Improvement requirement.
maximum of 10.0 17 = Weak 27 = Weak
per cent.
3 = Moderate Average PAR was 1 = Strong 1 = Strong Average CAR and liquidity
Microfinance Banks 51 = Above 11.3 per cent 19 = Acceptable 61 = Acceptable ratio were 15.0 and 70.9 per
Average which was above 69 = Needs 25 = Needs cent, respectively. These
68 = High the regulatory Improvement Improvement were above the regulatory
maximum of 5.0 33 = Weak 35 = Weak benchmarks of 10.0 and 20.0
per cent per cent.
4E-payments transactions includes all electronic platforms used to ATMs, PoS, MMOs, internet (web), USSD, Mobile Apps and Direct
settle financial transactions for households and businesses, such as Debits.
Figure 2.5.1: Composition of e-Payments Transactions Figure 2.5.3: Volume of RTGS Transactions,
by Volume, 2022 2019 – 2022
NEFT USSD
0.4% 2.3% 290,000
288,216
287,506
Internet Mobile 288,000
286,132
63.7% App
286,000
8.4%
284,000
ATMs 282,000
6.8% 280,000
277,906 278,307
278,000
276,000
274,000
272,000
Direct Debit 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
POS 0.7%
17.6%
Figure 2.5.2: Share of e-Payments Transaction by Figure 2.5.4: Value of RTGS Transactions, 2019 – 2022
Value, 2022 (per cent) (N’ Billion)
Mobile App Direct Debit ATMs POS 76,000
7.5% 1.8% 2.2% 2.8% 74,209.0
73,706.0
USSD 74,000
0.3%
71,373.0
72,000
N'billion
70,000
68,026.0
68,000 66,781.0
NEFT
32.3% 66,000
64,000
Internet ,
62,000
53.1%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
The volume and value of payments services The number of Automated Teller Machines
provided by the Mobile Money Operators (ATMs) rose by 3.3 per cent to 19,433 at end-
(MMOs) at banking agents touch points rose December 2022, compared with 19,355 at end-
significantly by 60.3 per cent and 111.8 per cent, December 2021. The number of connected Point-
respectively, in 2022. The volume of transactions of-Sale (PoS) terminals increased significantly by
increased to 1,926.3 million, from 1,201.5 million 81.9 per cent to 1,665,664 at end-December
in 2021. Also, the corresponding value rose to 2022, from 915,519 at end-December 2021.
₦32.60 trillion, from ₦15.40 trillion in 2021. The Similarly, the number of banking agents touch
boost in MMOs operations was due, largely, to points rose by 47.0 per cent to 1,474,173 in 2022,
the increase in the number of banking agents on- compared with 1,002,514 at end-December
boarded in the drive for enhanced financial 2021.
inclusion.
At end-December 2022, the number of Of the total sectoral disbursements in 2022, the
customers on-boarded grew astronomically by manufacturing/Industry sector received the
1,197.9 per cent to 8.93 million, from 0.69 million highest amount of N1,078.46 billion or 60.19 per
customers at end-December 2021. Similarly, the cent, followed by services with N214.19 billion or
number of new wallets/subscribers increased 11.95 per cent. The MSMEs sector received the
significantly by 2,301.5 per cent to 17.99 million, least at N30.67 billion or 1.71 per cent. In terms
from 0.75 million at end-December 2021. of sectoral repayments, of the N1,686.14 billion
The agent banking network base of the PSBs repaid thus far, energy/infrastructure was the
expanded by 296.2 per cent to 308,845, from highest at N1,350.13 billion or 80.01 per cent,
77,949 agents in 2021. The volume of digital followed by agriculture with N214.60 billion or
payments increased significantly by 2,763.63 per 12.73 per cent, while the health sector repaid the
cent to 21.23 million, from 0.74 million in 2021, least at N2.13 billion or 0.13 per cent.
and the corresponding value grew by 339.56 per
cent to ₦179.65 billion in 2022, compared with 2.6.2 National Financial Inclusion
₦40.86 billion in 2021.
The revised National Financial Inclusion Strategy
The significant increases in customer onboarding, (NFIS 3.0) was launched in November 2022 to
volume and value of transactions, number of new improve financial inclusion in Nigeria. The
wallets, and number of engaged banking agents Strategy provides a roadmap and a set of actions
was due, mainly, to the issuance of licences to for achieving the financial inclusion target of 95.0
Momo PSB and SmartCash PSB who leveraged on per cent by 2024 from 64.1 per cent in 2020. The
their existing large telco customer base. target is expected to be achieved through an
increased use of financial services in priority
demographics, increased financial services
2.6 DEVELOPMENTAL FUNCTIONS infrastructure and platforms, as well as improved
2.6.1 CBN Interventions coordination, capacity, and governance within
the financial inclusion ecosystem.
The Bank sustained its intervention programmes
aimed at stimulating the economy through
2.6.3 National Collateral Registry
affordable and accessible credit to the priority
sectors. Following the continued rebound of the The National Collateral Registry (NCR),
economy from the COVID-19-induced shocks, the established under the Secured Transactions in
Anchor Borrowers' Programme (ABP) 417,024,881,275.71 93.03 63 Anchors 256,980,310,638 139,251,633,809.00 79.40 85 Anchors (1,230,087) 115,257,928,373.33
Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS) 29,347,652,900.00 6.55 25 Projects 71,823,461,231 28,243,427,572.00 16.10 27 Projects 78,914,988,507.15
Paddy Aggregation Scheme(PAS) - 0.00 1 Rice Millers 4,666,666,667 6,200,000,000.00 3.54 17 Rice Millers 1,000,000,000.00
Accelerated Agriculture Development Scheme (AADS) 1,536,120,000.00 0.34 2,594,826,062 1,680,000,000.00 0.96 6,013,470,851.32
Nigeria Electricity Market Stabilization Facility (NEMSF) - 0.00 18,357,731,380 6,469,362,035.93 3.71 22,425,887,511.11
Nigeria Electricity Market Stabilization Facility 2 (NEMSF 2) 164,132,556,147.72 24.53 34,176,151,756.12 19.62 -
Tertiary Institutions Entrepreneurship Scheme (TIES) 29,127,500.00 0.01 6 Beneficiaries 326,572,803.00 1.06 -
Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development Fund
13,190,755,000.00 6.60 3 Beneficiaries 14,634,945,027 10,000,000.00 0.03 7,207,328,030.79
(MSMEDF)
Targeted Credit Facility (TCF) 182,173,134,880.00 91.14 387,662 beneficiaries 3,733,443 25,587,000,000.00 83.43 387,662 beneficiaries 825,479,777.30
Textile Sector Intervention Facility (TSIF) 1,292,000,000.00 0.17 10 projects 5,307,584,151 1,500,000,000.00 0.14 13,113,456,559.43
Covid-19 Intervention for the Manufacturing Sector (CIMS) 1.32 49.57 3 Power projects 3,519,557,740.40
9,990,353,200.00 60 projects 2,212,443 534,586,875,000.00
RSSF Using Differentiated Cash Reserve Ratio (RSSF-DCRR) 443,429,139,234.05 58.68 62 projects 2,050,934,446 291,701,486,763.00 27.05 121 projects 11,318,971,009.36
Health Care Sector Intervention Fund (HSIF) 3,956,278,717 98.75 46 projects 338,312,066 33,234,966,871.40 99.96 137 projects 2,129,160,972.08
-
Services 214,185,380,790.17 11.95 34,452,859,951.68
The Bank introduced the Race to US$200.00 billion (RT200) programme in February 2022. The
RT200 comprised of a set of policies, plans, and programmes for non-oil exports aimed at
attracting US$200.00 billion in foreign exchange inflow, over the next 3-5 years. It was anchored
on a five-point agenda, namely:
Among these anchors, the non-oil FX Rebate Scheme is designed to incentivise exporters in
the non-oil sector to encourage repatriation and sale of export proceeds into the FX market.
During the review period, US$2,913.01 million was repatriated and sold on the Investors
and Exporters (I&E) window, while N137.15 billion was approved as rebate.
The Maiden Edition of the Bi-Annual RT200 Non-Oil Export Summit 2022, which was jointly
organised by the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Bankers’ Committee, took place on June
16, 2022, at the Eko Hotel and Suites, Victoria Island, Lagos State. The Summit, themed
“Setting the Roadmap Toward Achieving RT200 and Non-Oil Exports for Development”,
served as a forum for policymakers, bankers, and exporters to deliberate on issues related
to the boosting of non-oil export proceeds and proffering pragmatic and workable
solutions geared toward addressing the identified issues as well as facilitating the
attainment of the policy objectives of the RT200 Scheme.
The second edition of the summit, with the theme “RT 200 Non-Oil Export: The Journey So
Far” took place on November 29, 2022, at the Eko Hotel and Suites, Victoria Island, Lagos
State. The summit provided an avenue for stakeholders to assess progress made in the
implementation of the Scheme, deliberate on identified issues impeding the repatriation
of non-oil export proceeds, and proffer pragmatic solutions to aid the achievement of the
objectives of the Scheme.
The Bank fostered its strategic initiatives and Table 3.1.1: Board of Directors’ Meetings and
sustained its corporate social responsibility. Thus, Attendance
it re-invigorated its corporate strategy, upgraded No. of Meetings
S/N Member
its IT infrastructure, and enhanced the e-Naira Attended
digital currency. Furthermore, it constructed new 1 Godwin I. Emefiele, CON 3 out of 3
buildings in the Central Hospital in Delta state and 2 Aishah N. Ahmad 3 out of 3
Kano state University of Science and Technology, 3 Edward L. Adamu 3 out of 3
and provided capacity building services and 4 Folashodun A. Shonubi 3 out of 3
financial assistance to institutions, organisations, 5 Kingsley I. Obiora 3 out of 3
and individuals. 6 Abdu Abubakar 3 out of 3
7 Adeola Adetunji 3 out of 3
3.1 ADMINISTRATION 8 Aliyu Ahmed 3 out of 3
3.1.1 The Board of Directors and Other 9 Ahmed Idris 2 out of 3
10 Justitia O. Nnabuko 3 out of 3
Committees
11 Mike I. Obadan 3 out of 3
The Board of Directors held three regular 12 Ummu A. Jalingo 3 out of 3
Meetings in 2022, while the Committee of Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Governors held 52 regular meetings. The Audit,
Financial System Stability, Finance & General- Table 3.1. 2: Committee of Governors’ Meetings
and Attendance
Purpose, Investment, Pension Fund No. of Meetings
Management, and Risk & Cybersecurity S/N Member
Attended
Committees held three meetings each, while the 1 Godwin I. Emefiele, CON 51 out of 52
Corporate Strategy, Establishment, 2 Aishah N. Ahmad 47 out of 52
3 Edward L. Adamu 47 out of 52
Remuneration, Ethics & Anti-Corruption 4 Folashodun A. Shonubi 47 out of 52
Committees held two meetings each, during the 5 Kingsley I. Obiora 49 out of 52
year. Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
The tenures of four Non-Executive Directors, 3.1.2 The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
namely: Adeola Adetunji, Justitia O. Nnabuko,
Mike I. Obadan and Ummu A. Jalingo expired on In 2022, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
6 June 2022, but were subsequently re-appointed held its regular bi-monthly meetings in January,
by the President, effective 27 September 2022 March, May, July, September, and November.
for the final term of four years. Also, the Deputy Major developments in the global and domestic
Governor, Financial System Stability, Aishah N. economy, and financial environment influenced
Ahmad and the Deputy Governor, Corporate the decisions of the Committee. Subsequently,
Services, Edward L. Adamu, were re-appointed the decisions of monetary policy were conveyed
for a final term of five years, effective 23 March to the public through communiques and press
2023. briefings.
The Bank marked the one-year anniversary of the The volume of books in the Library system
deployment of the first central bank digital increased to 120,349 in 2022, from 120,169 in
currency (CBDC) in Africa, the eNaira, on 25 2021, representing a 0.2 per cent increase. This
October 2022. Since its launch, significant was attributed to the diversification from print
milestones had been achieved. These included: books to the electronic book format. A total of
• Integration of all banks and a substantial 116 eBook titles were added to the eBook
number of PSPs with the eNaira holdings of the Library.
platform; The number of library materials consulted by
• Development and deployment of an app staff were 39,816, representing an increase of
and web wallets for the eNaira; 103.0 per cent from the 19,614 recorded in 2021.
• N5.00 billion worth of eNaira have been This was attributed to the increased sensitisation
minted with N2.97 billion (59.0 per cent) by the library on the resources available.
issued to financial institutions;
• 2.1 million wallets have been activated Furthermore, a total of 88,319 downloads of
amongst which were the merchant library resources were recorded in 2022,
wallets for some major outlets; compared with 18,032 in the preceding year. The
• Collaboration with the Federal Ministry downloads were from 2,181 institutions, across
of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster 192 countries, compared with 671, across 162
Management and Social Development countries, in 2021. This represented a 69.0 per
(FMHDS), to facilitate direct cent and 18.5 per cent increase in the number of
disbursement of social intervention institutions and countries, respectively, that
funds to citizens. This partnership led to accessed the resources from the CBN Digital
the creation of additional 1.3 million Commons. The development was attributed to
eNaira wallets for the beneficiaries; the increased visibility and access to the Bank’s
• 875,000 transactions amounting to intellectual output, following the successful
N11.83 billion have been recorded on implementation of the Digital Commons,
the platform; and indexing through Google Scholar and RePEc, and
• The first ever central bank-sponsored remote authentication through the Open Athens.
hackathon held in August 2022 with
The Bank continued to provide access to
4,911 registrations and 176 teams
electronic books and journals, covering
participating at the event. The winning
economics, finance, business, and banking
use cases emanating from the event
through Springer, Elsevier, Science Direct, the
would progress to an incubator program
IMF e-Library, and the World Bank Open
from 2023, to drive innovation in the
Knowledge Repository (OKR). The following
payments system.
databases were also available: EBSCOHost;
Journal Storage (JSTOR); Access to Global Online
Research in Agriculture (AGORA); and Online
The Bank conducted the Society for Worldwide 3.1.15 The Shared Services Programme
Inter-bank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT)
screening on 53,291 messages, and reports In 2022, the following programmes were
generated, indicating “hits” (suspected successfully carried out under the Shared
Services Initiative:
messages), were reviewed for Management
i. Compliance Audit and Remediation
consideration. AML/CFT questionnaires were Workshop for Deposit Money Banks
received from 13 correspondent banks, which
Following the release of the IT Standards
were promptly completed and returned to the
Blueprint which defined IT industry standards,
respective banks. A review of all Special Reports
the Bank, in conjunction with the Bankers’
on Funds Transactions (SRFT) and Suspicious
Committee, conducted the 2022 compliance
Transaction Reports (STR) received during the
5
Innovative use of technology in Insurance
120000
administered to staff, while 4,254 routine
No. of attendees
100000
immunisation were administered to staff 80000
children. In addition, a total of 4,506 staff 60000
20000
3,645 were fully vaccinated while 192 were
0
partially vaccinated. Patients treated Stand by Clinics Specialist Clinic Vaccinations
at clinic received
120 107 8%
100
80 70
60
40
20
0
EP FSS CS OPS GOV Branches SENIOR
82%
Figure 3.1.4: Local and Foreign Training Distribution by Staff beneficiaries of various training programs
Directorates and Branches, 2022 comprised 68.0 per cent male and 32.0 per cent
2500 female.
1976
2000
Figure 3.1.6: Training Distribution by Gender 2022
1500 1306
1110
896 910
1000
610
500 32%
FEMALE
0 MALE
BRANCHES CS EP FSS GOV OPS 68%
FOREIGN LOCAL TOTAL
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
The local and foreign training distribution by Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Directorate showed that Corporate Services
recorded the highest with 1,306; followed by 3.1.18 Partnership Programmes and
Operations 1,110; Governors 910; Financial Research Project
System Stability 896; Economic Policy recorded The ITI continued to partner with foreign
610, while the branches recorded 1,976. stakeholders to gain expertise on emerging
topics at minimum cost. These stakeholders
include: the US Federal Reserve Bank (FRB),
Building Confidence
3.1.24 International Women’s Day (Public
Speaking/Networkin
g etc.)
The Bank participated in the celebration of the
Work-life balance
2022 International Women’s Day (IWD) to (Goal Setting, Time
7%
commemorate the political, cultural, social, and Management etc.)
21%
economic achievements of women, while
Excelling in difficult
highlighting the challenges facing them in the times (Sexual
72%
society. The theme for the 2022 celebration was Harassment,
Working with a
“Gender Equality today for a Sustainable Difficult Boss etc.)
Tomorrow” with the hashtag #BreakTheBias. This
event was celebrated throughout the month of
March 2022 with activities such as:
A webinar with the theme “Gender Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Equality Today for a Sustainable
Tomorrow” #BreaktheBias;
A yoga session organised for over 100 3.2 COMMUNICATION AND COMMUNITY
women at the Head Office gymnasium to ENGAGEMENTS
promote the general well-being, mental 3.2.1 Communication
stability, and focus of female staff;
A Virtual Breakfast meeting for 151 The Bank sustained transparency and
Female staff with the DG FSS. The DG FSS accountability in the conduct of its activities, by
shared her experience and urged the effectively communicating policies and
women to take ownership of their stories programmes to the public during the year. These
by confronting their fears with courage; included: dissemination of the decisions of the
and Monetary Policy Committee (MPC); the Bankers’
Committee meetings; outcomes of the Bank’s
S hocks emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war brought about
emerging complexities and uncertainties in the economy. This necessitated the upscaling of the
existing modelling toolkits in the Bank, using Big Data Analysis, to improve forecast accuracy. Big data
are large data sets, typically semi- structured or unstructured, which are unable to be processed or
stored by conventional data processing or storage tools or techniques.
Big data are expected to minimise forecast errors, as it ensures accuracy and timeliness of economic
forecasts by complementing the published data of statistical agencies through its inherent qualities of
‘volume’, ‘variety’, and ‘velocity’. Big datasets are often collected directly from companies or
consumers internet searches (i.e., google trends); media (i.e., broadcast/published news); social media
(i.e., Twitter or Facebook); and the outcome of a business transaction (i.e., payment/transactions
data).
To leverage these benefits, the Bank constructed an inflation sentiment index within the context of
text-mining algorithms using the Application Programming Interface (API) of a social media
application, Twitter. The construction of the Sentiment index was carried out in two key stages, the
data extraction and the sentiment analysis stages. In the first stage, data relating to inflation in
Nigeria was extracted from Twitter, these included both tweets and replies to ensure the robustness of
the data, based on the 'opinions' expressed about the developments and expectations of inflation in
the Nigerian economy. A total of 79, 479 tweets referencing inflation in Nigeria were extracted for the
period 2010 to 2022.
In the second stage, the sentiment index is generated after cleaning and processing the data. This
involved converting the unstructured data (extracted tweets) into structured data, using a Natural
Language Processing (NLP) system in Python software that classifies the polarity of each tweet into
positive, negative, or neutral after assigning values to each tweet using the Natural Language Toolkit
(NLTK) . The wordnet dictionary of the NLTK was employed to categorise the sentiments of the tweets,
negative words tended towards -1, neutral words were assigned a score of 0 while positive words were
assigned positive values tending towards +1. The tweets were summed for each month to obtain the
inflation sentiment index for that month.
The constructed index was included in the benchmark short-term inflation forecasting model (STIF).
Sentiment analysis uses automated tools to extract subjective information such as opinions, attitudes,
and feelings expressed in text, which are mapped into quantitative measures to produce sentiment
indices. The index is then incorporated into existing econometric forecasting models to improve
economic forecasts.
An ex-post forecast analysis was conducted to better signals future price movements in Nigeria.
ascertain the predictive power of the estimated To further test the predictive power of the ex-
model and examine if the inclusion of a sentiment post forecasts of inflation, a mean square error
index improves inflation forecasts. The findings (MSE) analysis was conducted. Findings revealed
show that inflation forecasts improved by that inflation predictions from the STIF model
including a sentiment index, as public sentiments with SA model outperformed the benchmark STIF
strongly correlate with headline inflation, model.
implying that public sentiment about inflation
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) developed and operationalised the Macroeconomic Model of the Nigerian
economy (CBN-MAMONE). The Model estimates the relationships among the various sectors of the
economy, including real, external, monetary and financial, as well as fiscal sectors, with the objective of
facilitating the decision-making process of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). However, the CBN-
MAMONE was revised in 2016, to incorporate some observations including: the lack of sound theoretical
underpinnings for some of the equations and their linkages; unavailability of some required data to fit and
run the model; and inability to capture market and price expectations in the labour market and price variables.
In addition, due to some major developments in the global and domestic economies, the 2016 model was
further revised to address the global economic meltdown and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which have
changed the structure of the world economy. Specifically, output, which was driven mainly by agriculture
and trade sectors, have changed, and is now driven by the services sector, particularly the ICT sub-sector.
Aside, the model was characterised by some weaknesses. First, there were limited policy variables exogenised
within the system of equations, implying the resulting scenario analyses provided limited policy options to
Management and MPC members. Precisely, with the exception of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), policy
variables such as the anchor rate (MPR) and the asymmetric corridor rates (the standing lending and deposit
facility rates), loans to deposit ratio (LTDR), among others, were conspicuously omitted from the system.
Second, the model used data in quarterly frequency, as against the monthly frequency outputs required to
guide policy formulation during the MPC meetings. Third, the model was not codified, thus, was operated on
EViews, using dropdown manual-click operations, and all the model outputs were in the EViews interface.
The revision, undertaken in 2021, improved the model by accommodating significant changes in the
macroeconomic environment, persistent insecurity challenges, and increasing monetary policy spill-over
from other economies. The framework of the latest CBN-MAMONE has ten (10) equations, with each
equation established on sound theoretical postulation, to capture the transmission mechanism across various
sectors of the Nigerian economy. To this end, the model's critical economic sectors include the real, financial,
external, and fiscal sectors. The expansion of the equations to ten implies that the new model can now
simulate and make conditional forecasts of the ten endogenous variables, captured or represented by the ten
equations. Also, in the revised CBN-MAMONE, policy variables such as the CRR, MPR, LTDR, and
asymmetric corridor rates, are explicitly featured as exogenous variables in the system of equations. It,
however, was done with full recourse to a priori considerations, transmission channels, and the sectoral
interconnectedness of the Nigerian economy. Other exogenous variables include the US Fed Funds rate and
crude oil price (COP), which featured in the system to control external shocks that could impact the Nigerian
economy. The inclusion of the US Fed Funds rate was to capture possible spill-over effects to the Nigerian
economy, particularly, in capital and trade flows, which may result from global developments and policy
changes from leading economies of the world.
Furthermore, the model captures the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic using the Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers Index (MPMI), which effectively tracked the level of economic activity in Nigeria during the COVID-
19 pandemic lockdown. Similarly, the model captures the news effects and public sentiments about the levels
of insecurity and foreign exchange market instability using two constructed indices; the index of insecurity
and foreign exchange market pressure, using Google Trend. This revised model utilises both monthly and
quarterly frequencies to address the earlier challenges of the delays in timeliness and data frequency, to guide
policy decisions during MPC meetings. Finally, the model is codified, making its operation more technology
driven.
Inflation, across the globe, soared in 2022, owing Inflation in Kenya was propelled by adverse
to a combination of supply and demand factors, weather conditions (severe drought), currency
which triggered a cost-of-living crisis. On the depreciation, and surge in the prices of
supply side, cost of energy, transportation, and international commodities, particularly wheat and
other commodities increased, due to the gasoline occasioned by the geo-political tensions
persistent supply chain disruptions and
in Eastern Europe. Thus, inflation in Kenya
devaluation of some currencies, which affected
15.0
11.1
9.9 10
9.1 8.4 8.5 8.7
10.0 8.1 7.4
7.2 6.9
5.9 6.7 6.7 6.1
3.1
4.7
2.6 3.2
5.5
4.6 In the EMDEs, equity markets performed better,
5.0 2 2.6 1.9 2.2
0.9
0.0
-0.2 closing the year higher than the level in the
EMDEs
Ghana
Russia
Kenya
AEs
United States
SSA
United Kingdom
EA
South Africa
India
Italy
China
Germany
Japan
-5.0
previous year. Notably, the Chinese Shanghai
Stock Exchange-A, the South African JSE All-Share
2021 2022
Index, and the Egyptian EGX Case 30 indices grew
Source: IMF WEO October 2022. by 2.2 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 48.6 per cent,
respectively, in 2022. The relaxation of the COVID-
4.3 GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 19 restrictions induced gains in the Chinese stock
markets, which positively impacted investors’
4.3.1 Global Financial Conditions
sentiments. In Egypt, gains were due to the
Global financial conditions tightened, as central investors’ confidence, boosted by the
banks embarked on contractionary policy government’s privatisation programme. IMF’s
measures to rein-in inflation. Stock markets approval to disburse the first tranche (US$347
exhibited mixed sentiments, closing broadly million) of the US$3 billion loan under Egypt’s
lower; government bond yields rose; and several policy reform programme also boosted
currencies depreciated against the dollar. Most confidence. In South Africa, the re-election of the
equity markets in the AEs posted losses at the end incumbent leader of the African National Congress
of 2022. In the US markets, the S&P500 and party led to a stronger Rand and a boost to local
NASDAQ fell significantly, by 19.4 per cent and investors’ confidence levels.
33.0 per cent, respectively, in 2022, as sentiments
were low in anticipation of a recession.
30.00
20.00
4
10.00 4.54
0.91 2.16 3
-1
Source: Bloomberg.
2021 2022
In the bonds market, yields on long-term Source: Bloomberg
Apr
Aug
Feb
Sep
Jul
Nov
Oct
Dec
Jun
May
Mar
pre-pandemic levels.
2021 2022
Source: RefinitivEikon (Reuters).
pressures remained elevated in 2022, owing to Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
high energy and food prices, and supply chain
disruptions. As such, headline inflation (year-on- Output growth was supported by sustained fiscal
year) surged to 21.34 per cent from 15.63 per cent and monetary policy measures, which spurred
in 2021. consumption by households. Also, higher crude oil
prices and normalisation of economic activities
since the removal of the COVID-19 related
5.1.1 Domestic Output restrictions, contributed to the growth outturn.
Despite significant headwinds, the economy Nevertheless, the economy grew at a slower pace
sustained its growth momentum in 2022, on the compared with the preceding year on account of
heels of a broad-based rebound of economic continued production challenges in the oil sector,
activities in the non-oil sector. Real Gross Domestic higher value shortfall recovery for PMS, supply
Product (GDP) grew by 3.1 per cent to N74.6 chain disruptions following the Russia-Ukraine
trillion in 2022, from N72.4 trillion in 2021. Growth war, and tighter global market financing
was driven, largely, by improvement in the non-oil conditions.
sector, which contributed 4.5 percentage points
to output growth. However, the oil sector
contracted, dragging down overall output growth
by 1.4 percentage points.
58.7
Activity sector 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
53.6
52.6
52.6
52.4
Agriculture 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Crop Production 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Industry 0.3 0.5 -1.3 -0.1 -1.0
27.1
26.2
25.9
25.2
25.1
22.2
22.3
20.6
Crude Petroleum 0.1 0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.4
21
14.2
Construction 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.2
Service 1.1 1.1 -1.2 2.9 3.6
Trade -0.1 -0.1 -1.4 1.3 0.8
Information & 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1.1 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.5
Communications
Non-Oil GDP 1.8 1.9 -1.1 4.1 4.5 Agriculture Industry Services
Total (GDP) 1.9 2.3 -1.9 3.4 3.1 Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
6
The table presents the major sectoral contributors to real
GDP growth.
production grew the highest at 2.0 per cent, Manufacturing (LHS) Mining (LHS)
followed by Forestry at 1.6 per cent, and fishery, Electricity (LHS) Industry(RHS)
1.4
1.2
that a total of 93.49 million tons of solid minerals
1
0.8 were produced in 2022, representing a 0.89 per
0.6 cent increase, from the 92.66 million tons
0.4
0.2
produced in 2021. Further analysis showed that
0 non-metallic minerals rose by 1.11 per cent to
Sep
Jul
Nov
Dec
Jun
Feb
May
Oct
Mar
Jan
Apr
Aug
92.02 million tons with granite increasing,
significantly, to 48.80 million tons from 14.35
2021 2022
million tons in 2021. In contrast, carbonaceous
Source: Refinitiv Eikon (Reuters).
minerals, particularly coal, fell by 8.36 per cent to
1.37 million tons, from 1.49 million tons in 2021.
Similarly, gas production and utilisation decreased
The production of metallic minerals also fell, by
in 2022, on account of low crude oil production.
43.60 per cent to 10,179.51 tons, from 18,048.46
Total volume of gas produced decreased by 7.4
tons in the preceding year, with significant decline
per cent to 2,542.41 billion cubic feet (bcf), from
observed in the production of lead/zinc ore and tin
2,744.31 bcf in 2021. Of the total gas produced,
ore to 49,753.01 tons and 2,788.14 tons in 2022,
2,346.34 bcf, representing 85.5 per cent, was
from 87,048.87 tons and 24,873.47 tons,
utilised, while the balance was flared.
respectively, in the preceding year. The decline
was due to illegal mining activities during the year.
Figure 5.1.6: Gas Production and Utilisation
(Trillion scf) Public utilities sub-sector grew by 2.6 per cent on
account of continued investments in public water
3.0
facilities by the government and development
2.5
partners. Within the subsector, water supply,
2.0
sewage & waste management subsector grew by
1.5
1.0
13.6 per cent, while activities in the electricity, gas
0.5
steam & air conditioner subsector contracted by
- 2.2 per cent in 2022.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gas Produced Gas Utilised Gas Flared The average electricity generation decreased by
Source: Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited. 5.6 per cent to 3,916.46 MW/h, from 4,078.26
MW/h in 2021, due to the vandalism of
transmission and distribution networks, recurring
technical faults, reduction in gas supply, and low
water level. This was despite the increase in
Lagacy
21%
3000
2500
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
4200.0
4000.0
mh/h
3800.0
3600.0
3400.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Index
100
and the Nigerian Electrification Project (NEP). 50
50
The total number of off-grid solar power projects 45
total installed and available capacity of the off-grid Manufacturing (LHS) Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
solar power - installed and ongoing - were Source: Staff estimate.
22,991.72 KW and 4,025 KW, respectively. Also,
the total number of existing connections to the
mini-grid and solar home system completed and The construction subsector grew by 4.5 per cent
ongoing were 636,493 and 365,651, respectively. owing to investments by the government and the
private sector, reflecting the continued
The manufacturing sub-sector grew on account of
implementation of the Infrastructure for Tax
strong domestic demand, as well as continued
Credit Scheme (Executive Order 007).
fiscal and monetary policy measures, which
buoyed capacity utilisation. The sub-sector grew
by 2.5 per cent from 3.4 per cent recorded in the c. Services Sector
preceding year. This performance was
The services sector had the largest contribution to
corroborated by the index of manufacturing
output growth, reflecting sustained improvements
production, which rose by 2.9 per cent to 184.5
in demand since the removal of the COVID-19
index points from 181.6 index points in 2021. The
induced restrictions, amid investments by public
average estimated capacity utilisation increased,
and private sectors to improve the business
as manufacturers sustained production due to rise
environment. The sector grew by 6.7 per cent,
in new orders, arising from increased consumer
compared with 5.6 per cent in the preceding year.
demand. The estimated average manufacturing
Within the services sector, the finance & insurance
capacity utilisation increased by 0.3 percentage
subsector grew fastest at 16.4 per cent, reflecting
point to 54.8 per cent, from 54.5 per cent in 2021.
increased credit by financial institutions, owing to
increased economic activities and the sustained
implementation of the loan-to-deposit ratio policy
of the Bank.
The transportation & storage subsector grew on
the back of increased economic activities amid
continued institutional support. The sub-sector
grew by 15.2 per cent, contributing 0.2
percentage point to overall output growth. A
150,000
universities and the conversion of selected
%
100,000 colleges of education and polytechnic to
50
50,000 universities.
0 0 The human health subsector remained resilient
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
following continued Federal Government support
Fixed (LHS)
Active Mobile Lines (Thousands) (LHS) and proactive strategies by health authorities.
Teledensity (RHS) Health sector output grew by 4.2 per cent,
Source: Nigerian Communication Commission.
compared with a growth of 4.9 per cent in 2021,
on account of sustained government support.
Further analysis indicates that the wireless Global
Consequently, vital health performance measures
System for Mobile (GSM) communication segment
such as immunisation rate across various
continued to dominate market share, accounting
categories tendered upwards. In this regard, 60.6
for 154.3 million lines in the telecom sub-sector at
per cent of one year old children were fully
end-December 2022, while the number of Fixed
immunised compared to 57.5 per cent in 2021.
Wired and VoIP stood at 15,904 and 349,814,
respectively. Among the GSM networks, Mobile Similarly, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control
Telecommunications Network (MTN) had the (NCDC), and the Federal Government continued
largest share of the market with approximately periodic surveillance to manage the spread of
65.6 million subscribers, higher than the 58.8 COVID-19 infections. This led to a significant
million active subscribers in the corresponding decline in the number of confirmed cases. For
period of 2021. This was followed by Globacom instance, the number of confirmed cases fell
with 43.1 million, compared with 39.5 million markedly to 24,210 cases, from 154,734 cases in
subscribers in 2021, and Airtel with 41.2 million, 2021. Also, death tolls arising from the pandemic
higher than the 37.5 million subscribers in the fell significantly to 124, from 1,742 incidences in
corresponding period of 2021. However, 9mobile the preceding year.
recorded a decrease in active subscribers to 4.4 In addition, data from the National Primary Health
million, compared with 5.8 million in 2021. Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) showed that
at end-December 2022, 56.6 per cent of the target
The social services sub-sector grew, though at a population had been fully vaccinated against the
slower pace, mainly on account of the long COVID-19 infection, compared with 4.0 per cent in
disruption in the education sector. Despite the the corresponding period of 2021. The partially
removal of the COVID-19 induced restrictions and vaccinated population stood at 11.0 per cent, as
suspension of an eight-month industrial action by against 9.2 per cent at end-December 2021.
the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), Following the continued vaccination drive and
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) To increase access to tertiary education, the
provided N232.00 million as telecommunications Federal Government approved the issuance of
research and development grant to 16 Nigerian provisional licences for the establishment of 12
universities. The grant would fund research in five private universities and three new federal
emerging technology areas. The areas include: 5G polytechnics located in Umunnoechi in Abia State,
Deployment; Innovative Clean Energy; Advanced Orogun in Delta State, and Kabo in Kano State.
Method of Quality of Service (QoS)/Quality of
Efforts to improve the quality of skilled manpower
Experience Management and Test Mechanism;
in the aviation sector received a boost as the
IoT Low Power Wide Area Network (LPWAN)
Federal Government established a Pan-African
Technology; and Monitoring and Localising of
university, known as the African Aviation
Drones. The grant consists of three professional
Aerospace University. The University, which would
chair endowments of N20.00 million each, and
be an aviation specialised school, would offer two
N17.02 million to 13 universities for research
courses (BSc Aviation Business and BSc
projects.
Meteorology), for both online and on-site
To deepen internet penetration in the country, students.
the NCC offered two slots in the 3.5 gigahertz
Furthermore, the United States launched a
(GHz) spectrum band for the deployment of the
US$48.80 million investment in Nigeria’s
fifth generation (5G) network to MTN Nigeria and
education sector tagged ‘Leveraging Education
Mafab Communications Limited in February 2022.
Assistance Resources in Nigeria (LEARN) Read
The NCC also granted operational licence to Activity’. The programme encourages school
Starlink to provide internet service in Nigeria. The children and youths to gain foundational skills,
Low Earth Orbit satellite network has the potential such as literacy and numeracy.
to provide high-speed and low-latency broadband
internet access. The deployment of the service
c.4. Health
would help to achieve a near 100 per cent
penetration in the country. To deepen health insurance services, the
President signed the National Health Insurance
c.3. Education Authority Bill, 2022, into law, which repealed the
National Health Insurance Scheme Act, 2004. The
To incentivise and motivate academic staff in the law would strengthen state governments’ health
teaching profession, the President signed into law, insurance schemes by empowering them to
a Bill increasing the retirement age and the service
The Government approved the opening of an To tackle the negative impact of climate change,
employment and job creation portal called the the Bank of Industry (BoI) signed a pact with the
Nigerian Labour Exchange (NILEX). The platform French Development Agency (AFD) for a 100-
would take records of job vacancies and skills of million-euro 10-year credit facility, to expand
job seekers in the country and in the Diaspora. green project financing in Nigeria and promote
climate smart agricultural technologies. The
Furthermore, the Federal Government set up a Project is under the AFD’s Transforming Financial
₦10.00 billion Investment Fund for young Systems for Climate (TFSC) Programme with the
innovators and made provision for incentives and Green Climate Fund (GCF).
tax holidays to encourage local innovators. The
Fund is expected to deepen innovation by In addition, the World Bank, in partnership with
providing a legal and strategic framework for the Federal Ministries of Environment, Agriculture
innovators to make contributions in the country. & Rural Development, and Water Resources,
established the Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-
c.7. Social Intervention Arid Landscapes (ACReSAL) project to restore one
million hectares of degraded land in Northern
As part of efforts towards poverty eradication and Nigeria. The Project, with a proposed financing of
sustenance of the National Social Investment US$700.0 million and implementation period of six
Programme (NSIP), the Federal Government, in years, was in continuation of the elapsed Nigeria
collaboration with the CBN, flagged off the N-
Dec-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Mar-22
May-22
Feb-22
Sep-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Nov-22
Oct-22
Jan-22
Agric eggs medium size 1kg 497.52 466.04 474.29 569.17 719.25 51.6 26.4
Beans: brown, sold loose " 401.82 339.57 299.19 440.37 544.76 82.1 23.7
Gari white, sold loose " 201.96 159.03 207.69 294.00 318.60 53.4 8.4
Gari yellow, sold loose " 244.34 176.68 234.55 316.55 346.32 47.7 9.4
Irish potato " 287.68 279.57 310.32 353.85 475.54 53.2 34.4
Onion bulb " 247.89 223.02 260.30 314.83 397.76 52.8 26.3
Rice agric, sold loose " 325.69 331.17 407.13 456.40 526.59 29.3 15.4
Rice local, sold loose " 279.53 292.47 363.35 406.47 463.37 27.5 14.0
Rice, medium grained " 318.81 327.38 406.90 454.03 516.18 26.9 13.7
Sweet potato " 145.63 139.92 158.95 180.42 244.13 53.6 35.3
Yam tuber 1kg 260.56 198.34 231.42 285.25 382.60 65.3 34.1
8Oil transaction contracts take about 90 days to fully materialise. Consequently, 9 However, as part of the revision of the 2022 Appropriation Act in April 2022,
oil revenue receipts in the current period are reflective of the benchmark oil production was lowered to 1.60 mbpd to reflect the
developments in the domestic and global economies, three months preceding challenges in domestic production.
the current period of analysis. 10 As oil prices soared on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war, provision for PMS
subsidy in the 2022 budget was revised upward by N442.72 billion to N4.00
trillion from N3.557 trillion to capture the burgeoning PMS import bill.
FGN SGs
Grand
Source LGs
FG's Sub- Sub- Total
FCT States 13%
Share Total Total
Table 5.4.1: Sources of Revenue to the Three Tiers of Government (N’ Billion)
Statutory Allocation 2,784.28 53.88 2,838.16 1,439.55 540.22 1,979.77 1,109.83 5,927.77
Additional: Share from Excess Oil Revenue 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Additional: Share from Exchange Gain 97.24 1.88 99.12 50.28 2.61 52.89 38.76 190.77
Table 6.2. 3: Sources of Revenue to the Three Tiers of Government
Share of VAT 321.00 22.93 343.93 1,146.43 0.00 1,146.43 802.50 2,292.86
Table 5.4.1: Sources of Revenue to the Three Tiers of Government (N’ Billion)
FG Independent Revenue 1,288.50 0.00 1,288.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,288.50
Internally Generated Revenue 0.00 0.00 0.00 767.83 0.00 767.83 34.33 802.15
Less State Allocation to LG 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.43 0.00 24.43 0.00 24.43
Net Internally Generated Revenue 0.00 0.00 0.00 767.83 0.00 767.83 34.33 802.15
Share of Stabilization Fund 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.30 0.00 3.30 0.00 3.30
State Allocation to LG 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.47 39.47
Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget, and National Planning and Central Bank of
Nigeria Staff Estimates.
11 Consolidated fiscal operations of the three-tiers of government. 13 Includes additional Excess crude/PPT payment to the three-tiers of
12 Includes other memorandum sharing such as Excess Bank Charges government.
14 Classification for identifying poverty-reducing expenditures
96
6.4 FISCAL OPERATIONS OF THE FEDERAL billion or 2.8 per cent of GDP was 11.3 per cent
GOVERNMENT above the 2021 receipt, but was 43.7 per cent
6.4.1 Federal Government Fiscal Balance short of its benchmark, reflecting persisting
Despite improved revenue outcomes, increased revenue challenge. Notable increases of 20.6 per
spending outlay induced an expansion in the fiscal cent and 49.0 per cent were recorded in the FGN
deficit. Provisional data indicated that the overall share of VAT and other revenue sources
deficit of the FGN, at N9,330.37 billion, exceeded (including, transfers from special accounts, Nigeria
the budgeted deficit of N7,350.21 billion by 26.9 Liquified Natural Gas Dividend, and signature
per cent, and widened by 31.1 per cent, relative to bonuses), respectively, relative to their 2021
the level in 2021. The deficit, at 4.6 per cent of levels.
GDP, overshot the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA)
2007 and WAMZ primary convergence criterion Table 6.4.3: FGN Retained Revenue (N Billion)
thresholds of 3.0 per cent of GDP apiece, and the 2021 2022 Benchmark
3.4 per cent target for the 2022 Fiscal Year. FGN Retained
5,045.44 5,695.20 9,969.18
The larger fiscal deficit reflected higher and new Revenue
Federation
government spending on flood-related 2,647.34 2,838.16 4,330.71
Account
interventions, preparations for the 2023 general VAT Pool Account 285.12 343.93 316.69
elections, combating unfolding security FGN Independent
1,190.08 1,288.50 4,344.61
challenges, and critical infrastructure, among Revenue
others. Excess Oil Revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0
Excess Non-Oil 147.43 131.64 0.0
Exchange Gain 47.66 99.12 0.0
Table 6.3.4.2: Fiscal Balance 2022 (N Billion) Others* 727.81 993.85 977.17
Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation and
2021 2022 Budget Central Bank of Nigeria Staff Estimates.
-10,000
Non-debt expenditure was below the benchmark Revenue Expenditure Fiscal Balance
by 23.8 per cent and constituted 35.8 per cent of Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation and
total expenditure, while interest payments Central Bank of Nigeria Staff Estimates.
15Represented 56.0 per cent of the FGN retained revenue in 2022. This was
above the West African Monetary Zone’s (WAMZ) minimum benchmark of
20.0 per cent.
Construction
Health
Agriculture&
Resources
Roads &
Nat.
Grants/
Internally
Others
Generated
Source: Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation and 1.9%
VAT Revenue
Central Bank of Nigeria Staff Estimates. 27.7% 18.2%
6.5.1.1 Overall Fiscal Balance and Financing Sources: Office of Accountant-General of the Federation, the Federal
Ministry of Finance Budget and National Planning and Central Bank
of Nigeria Staff Estimates.
The fiscal deficit of state governments contracted
marginally due to higher revenue, which offset the
impact of the expenditure rise. Provisional data on 6.5.1.3 Expenditure
state governments’ finances (including the FCT), The total expenditure of State governments rose,
indicated that fiscal deficit contracted by 2.4 per reflecting an expansionary fiscal policy stance.
cent, to N1,428.17 billion or 0.7 per cent of GDP, Total expenditure increased by 8.5 per cent to
compared with a deficit of N1,463.77 billion or 0.8 N5,646.37 billion or 2.8 per cent of GDP, relative
per cent of GDP in 2021. The deficit was financed, to 2021. A breakdown revealed that, at N4,456.22
mainly, from domestic borrowing. billion or 2.2 per cent of GDP, recurrent
expenditure was 11.1 per cent above the level in
6.5.1.2 Revenue 2021 and accounted for 78.9 per cent of the total
expenditure. However, capital expenditure, at
State governments revenue improved in 2022
N1,190.15 billion, or 0.6 per cent of GDP was 0.4
owing to higher VAT and Federation account
per cent below the level in 2021 and constituted
allocations. At N4,218.20 billion or 2.1 per cent of
21.1 per cent of the total.
GDP, aggregate revenue of state governments
increased by 12.7 per cent relative to collections
in 2021. In line with the trend, statutory
16 Provisional data.
Figure 6.5.1: State Governments’ Expenditure Figure 6.5.2: State Governments’ Expenditure in Key
(% GDP) Primary Welfare Sectors, 2022 (% Total Expenditure)
7.0 6.4
4.0
6.0
3.5 5.2
4.9
3.0 5.0
2.5 4.0
Per Cent
Per Cent
2.0 3.0
1.5
2.0 1.5
1.0 0.9
1.0
0.5
- 0.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Education Health Agriculture Water Housing
Supply
Recurrent Expenditure Capital Expenditure
Total Expenditure Source: Central Bank of Nigeria Staff Estimates.
Source: States’ Office of the Accountant-General and Central Bank
of Nigeria Staff Estimates.
0.1
ongoing tax reforms and thriving business
0.1 activities at the local governments. Local
0.1 0.0 0.0 governments in Lagos State recorded the highest
0.0
aggregate IGR of 14.0 per cent, while Kwara State
0.0
- had the lowest, at 0.4 per cent.
Education Health AgricultureWater Supply Housing
Figure 6.5.4: Local Governments Revenue and Overall
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria Staff Estimates.
Balance (% GDP)
0.03 1.50
0.03
6.5.2 Local Governments’ Finances17
0.02 1.00
6.5.2.1 The Overall Fiscal Balance and Financing 0.02
Fiscal operations of the local governments (LGs) 0.01 0.50
improved, resulting in a surplus balance. The 774 0.01
local governments recorded an aggregate surplus - -
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
of N5.75 billion in 2022, compared with a deficit of
N0.60 billion in 2021. The surplus reflected Internally Generated Revenue (left axis)
Sources: Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National
improved revenue outcome, on account of higher
Planning, Office of the Accountant-General of the
federation revenue and VAT allocations. Federation and Central Bank of Nigeria Staff Estimates.
6.5.2.2 Revenue
Provisional aggregate revenue of the 774 LGs rose
by 15.7 per cent, on account of higher receipts
from the Federation Account. Aggregate revenue
of the LGs stood at N2,126.05 billion or 1.1 per
cent of GDP, with the largest share of N1,109.83
billion or 52.2 per cent of total revenue from
Federation Account allocation. This was followed
by VAT, N802.50 billion (37.7 per cent); Excess
Non-Oil Revenue, N82.19 billion (3.9 per cent);
State Allocation, N39.47 billion (1.9 per cent);
Exchange Gain, N38.76 billion (1.8 per cent), and
Internally Generated Revenue (IGR 18 ), N34.33
billion (1.6 per cent). Other revenue sources
2021 2022
Share of: Share of:
Item
Amount Revenue Amount Revenue GDP
GDP (%)
(N' b) (%) (N' b) (%) (%)
Federation Account 1,035.22 56.3 0.6 1,109.83 52.2 0.6
VAT 665.28 36.2 0.4 802.50 37.7 0.4
30.0
The FGN owed 84.1 per cent of the total
17.0
20.0 outstanding debt, while State governments
10.0
2.9 4.6 accounted for the balance of 15.9 per cent. The
0.0 FGN guarantees external borrowing by States, in
Education Health Agriculture Housing Water
Supply
line with section 47 (3) of the Fiscal Responsibility
Source: States Ministries of LGs and Central Bank of Nigeria Staff Act, 2007, therefore, the latter’s share of external
Estimates. debt remained a contingent liability of the FGN.
Figure 6.5.6: Local Governments Expenditure on Table 6.6. 1: Total Public Debt (₦ Billion)
Primary Welfare Sectors, 2022 (per cent of GDP) Type 2020 2021 2022
0.16 External Debt 12,705.62 15,855.23 18,702.25
0.14
0.14 Of which:
0.12 FGN 10,948.18 13,884.76 16,703.35
0.10 0.08 States and FCT 1,757.44 1,970.47 1,998.90
Per cent
6.6 PUBLIC DEBT STRATEGY AND The 2020-2023 MTDS, which details the
SUSTAINABILITY borrowing plan, limit, and composition of
6.6.1 Total Public Debt government borrowing, specifies an optimal
domestic-external debt ratio of 70:30 and a long-
Public debt was consistent with the Medium-Term to-short-term domestic debt ratio of 75:25.
Debt Strategy (MTDS, 2020-2023) and remained Consequently, domestic debt at 54.3 per cent of
within the 40 per cent debt-GDP threshold, though the total, was lower than the 70.0 per cent target,
widening deficits necessitated new borrowings. while external debt was 15.7 per cent above the
The consolidated public debt, consisting of both 30.0 per cent threshold.
the Federal and State Governments’ liabilities, at
2019
Figure 6.6.2: Breakdown of External Debt Stock (US$
2018
Billion)
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
45,000 45,000
40,000 40,000
Foreign Domestic
35,000 35,000
Source: Debt Management Office. 30,000 30,000
25,000 25,000
Analysis of the domestic debt portfolio revealed a 20,000 20,000
preference for longer-tenored instruments, with 15,000 15,000
19This includes Treasury bonds (0.2 per cent), Green bond (0.1 per finances table that indicates contributions to the external creditors’
cent), and Special FGN Savings bond (0.1 per cent). fund (a fund dedicated for External Debt Service Payment
20Represents actual
Obligations).
debt service payments by the Debt Management
Office which may differ from the figures in the Federal Government
3,000 3,000
2,500 2,500
2,000 2,000
billion naira
$US Million
1,500 1,500
1,000 1,000
500 500
0 -
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Number
the CBN regulatory purview increased to 6,760 at 3000
end-December 2022, from 6,715 in 2021. The
2000
increase was due to the licensing of two (2)
commercial banks, 30 MFB, 11 FCs, and two (2) 1000
Deposits Due to other 21.57 24.93 15.6 7.4 MONETARY AND CREDIT DEVELOPMENTS
Banks
The Bank, in the first four months of 2022,
194.26 210.45 8.3
Other Liabilities
maintained an accommodative monetary policy
77.06 84.55 9.7
Long-Term Loans stance to boost productivity and support domestic
FSIs
2021 2022 Benchmark growth recovery. However, heightened
CAR 10 10.4 10.00 inflationary pressures, prompted the Bank to
LR 43.7 43.13 20.00
NPL 29 22.07 30.00 switch to a hawkish policy stance, which spotlights
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria. its commitment to ensure price stability.
Nonetheless, the Bank continued to intensify
Analysis of prudential ratios of PMBs at end- interventions in the real sector, providing credit to
December 2022, showed that the industry CAR, key sectors of the economy to support growth and
LR, and NPL, were within the regulatory employment. These initiatives, among others,
thresholds. propelled the growth of broad money supply (M3)
above the target for 2022 fiscal year.
7.2.5 Bureaux-De-Change
The number of licensed BDCs remained the same
7.4.1 Reserve Money
as in the preceding year. This was due to
Management’s suspension of the licensing of new Reserve money increased on account of the
institutions since July 2021. growth in the Bank’s liability to Other Depository
Corporations (ODCs). Reserve money grew by 20.6
7.3 INSTITUTIONAL SAVINGS per cent at end-December 2022 to N16,032.05
Financial savings rose, reflecting increased billion, from a growth of 1.4 per cent at end-
accumulation of capital stock for investment to December 2021. The significant growth in reserve
stimulate economic growth. Aggregate financial money was due to the 30.6 per cent rise in
savings increased by 18.3 per cent to N31,780.37 liabilities to ODCs, arising from the increase in
billion, compared with N26,868.76 billion at end- CRR. On the other hand, currency-in-circulation
December 2021. The increased savings could be (CIC) moderated the growth in reserve money, as
attributed to the impact of the Naira redesign it contracted by 9.4 per cent, owing to increased
policy and attractive interest rates. The ratio of adoption and usage of electronic payment
financial savings to GDP rose marginally to 15.9 channels, coupled with increased deposits of the
6
Item 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2,000,000
5
₦ Million
Per cent
4
3
Reserve Ratio 19.8 23.2 28.9 24.0 26.5 1,000,000
2
M3 Multiplier 4.6 4.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 500,000
1
2.5
2.0 15.0 dominance in banks’ portfolio. Deposit liabilities,
1.5 7.8 7.5 7.1 7.1 10.0 with maturity of one year and below, at 89.8 per
1.0
5.2
5.0 cent, shed 0.1 percentage point at end-December
0.5
0.0 - 2022, compared with 89.9 per cent at end-
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 December 2021. The medium-term deposit
Currency Ratio (rhs) Reserve Ratio(rhs)
liabilities sustained an upward trajectory over a
M3 Multiplier (lhs) Velocity of M3 (lhs) five-year period, accounting for 4.6 per cent, while
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria. long-term deposits constituted 5.5 per cent at
end-December 2022.
at end-December 2022, from 56.4 per cent at end- Agriculture 4.00 4.49 5.15 5.98 6.15
December 2021. The medium-term and long-term Industry 45.10 41.58 41.93 40.66 41.01
of which:
maturities accounted for 14.9 per cent and 27.0 Construction
4.10 4.10 4.70 4.38 3.95
per cent, respectively, compared with 15.8 per Services 50.90 53.93 52.92 53.36 52.84
of which:
cent and 27.9 per cent at end-December 2021. Trade/General 7.10 7.20 6.60 7.00 7.52
Commerce
Figure 7.4.4: Maturity Structure of DMB’s Loans and Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Advances, and Deposit Liabilities
Short term
58.08% 7.4.6 Financial Sector Development Indicators
The financial sector showed resilience, as revealed
Long term
14.94% by key indicators. Aggregate savings maintained
an upward trajectory in 2022, as reflected in the
higher ratio of ‘other’ deposits (OD) to GDP of 15.6
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria. per cent, relative to 15.2 per cent in 2021. The
ratio of banking system’s asset to GDP rose to 71.4
7.4.5 Sectoral Distribution of Credit per cent, indicating that the size of the financial
sector remains robust.
The industry and services sectors sustained their
dominance in the share of credit to the private Table 7.4. 6: Financial Sector Development Indicators
sector. Credit utilisation by sectors of the economy Item 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
grew by 20.8 per cent to N29,445.87 billion at end-
M3/GDP 25.6 24.2 25.5 25.6 26.2
December 2022, above the N24,378.19 billion at CIC/M3 7.1 7.0 7.5 7.5 5.8
COB/GDP 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3
end-December 2021. The share of credit to the OD/GDP 12.6 12.5 14.4 14.8 15.6
private sector, revealed that the services and NDC/GDP 22.3 25.2 27.2 28.0 33.3
COS/GDP 18.4 18.3 19.6 20.3 21.0
industry sectors accounted for the largest shares, CPS/GDP 10.4 11.2 12.3 13.7 14.3
as their share in total credit stood at 52.8 per cent Banking
System's 59.5 58.3 67.3 68.1 71.4
and 41.0 per cent, respectively, at end-December Assets/GDP
COB/M3 5.8 5.8 6.4 6.6 4.9
2022, compared with 53.4 per cent and 40.7 per Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
cent, recorded at end-December 2021.
Billion naira
at credit support to the domestic economy. 30,000
Intermediation efficiency indicator, measured by
20,000
the ratio of currency outside banks (COB) to broad
10,000
money supply, improved to 1.3 per cent, from 1.7
per cent at end-December 2021, partly attributed 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
to the naira redesign policy.
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
7.5 MONEY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
7.5.1 Inter-bank Market Transactions Figure 7.5. 2: Share of Interbank Funds Market
Collateralised transactions continued to dominate Transactions, 2018 – 2022
in the inter-bank market. The total value of
transactions at the open-buy-back, interbank call, 2022
10,000
8,000
Billion naira
6,000
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Over-the-Counter Transactions in Treasury Bills
and FGN Bonds
Offer Subscription Allotment
There was a decrease in OTC transactions for
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
NTBs, in contrast to the transactions in the FGN
Bonds, which recorded an increase. Over-the-
Structure of Allotment of Nigeria Treasury Bills
The structure of allotment of the instrument Counter (OTC) transactions for NTBs amounted to
indicated that banks, including foreign investors, ₦48,310.69 billion, indicating a decrease of
took up ₦2,925.64 billion or 67.34 per cent, ₦9,975.54 billion or 17.11 per cent below the
mandate and internal funds, ₦1,266.40 billion or ₦58,286.23 billion recorded in 2021. OTC
29.15 per cent, and merchant banks ₦152.78 transactions in FGN Bonds amounted to
billion or 3.51 per cent. The stop rates ranged ₦13,981.14 billion, indicating a decrease of
between 1.74 and 6.50 per cent for the 91-day, ₦5,379.64 billion or 27.79 per cent below the
3.00 and 8.05 per cent for the 182-day, and 4.00 ₦19,360.78 billion recorded in 2021. The
and 14.84 percent for the 364-day. developments in the OTC markets were attributed
primarily to lower patronage by foreign and other
Figure 7.5.3: Nigerian Treasury Bills Outstanding institutional investors.
5,000
4,423
4,500
3,786
7.5.5 Federal Republic of Nigeria Treasury
4,000
3,500
3,342
3,191
3,383 Bonds
3,000 Federal Republic of Nigeria Treasury Bonds
Billion naira
5,000
7.5.9 Federal Government of Nigeria Sukuk
During the review period, a 10-Year FGN Sukuk
4,000
worth ₦130.00 billion was issued and allotted with
Billion Naira
3,000
the rental rate of 15.64 per cent payable semi-
2,000 annually. This brought the total value of FGN
1,000 Sukuk outstanding at end-December 2022 to
₦742.56 billion, an increase of 21.22 per cent
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 above the ₦612.56 billion recorded in 2021. The
Issue Subscription Allotment
increase in subscription was attributed to more
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria. issuance by the Federal Government, attractive
returns, as well as greater awareness of the
market participants to the developmental benefits
of Shari'ah compliant financial instruments.
7.6 Capital Market Developments Other significant activities carried out by the
Global and domestic macroeconomic Exchange in 2022, included:
developments shaped the activities in the Nigerian Launching of West Africa's first Exchange
capital market during the review year. Traded Derivatives (ETD) market - Listed 10
NGX Index Futures Contracts (NGX 30 Index
7.6.1 Policy, Regulation, and Institutional Futures, and NGX Pension Index Futures);
Environment obtaining approval from SEC on the rules for
In line with the recommendations of the Nigerian listing on NGX Technology Board;
Capital Market Master Plan (2015 - 2025), the Forming new strategic partnerships with the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) signing of a MoU with the Bank of Industry and
continued its activities, aimed at strenghtening Dubai Financial Market;
regulation and ensuring effective operations of signing of a Memorandum of Understanding
the Nigerian capital market. In the revie period, (MoU) to further promote financial literacy
the Commission: and enhance retail participation, develop
capital market solutions, leverage technology,
notified all public companies involved or support data dissemination, promote capacity
intending to be involved in a merger, development, and eliminate barriers to retail
acquisition, or other forms of corporate participation in the capital market;
restructuring, of the revised applicable successful launching of the African Exchange
“processing fee’’; and Linkage Project (AELP), which integrates the
informed all capital market operators (CMOs) African capital markets, by facilitating cross-
and the general public about the amended border trading and enabling the trading of
Investment and Securities Order 2019, which exchange-listed securities across 7
granted exemption to State Governments and participating securities exchanges;
the Federal Capital Territory from the execution of several physical and online
operations of Section 223 of the capacity building programs (Derivatives,
Investments and Securities Act, 2007 to Securities Lending, and Islamic Finance
enable them raise funds from the Capital webinars) to enhance the knowledge of key
Market for infrastructure development. stakeholders and increase investor
participation;
December 2021.
40.0 40.0
N Trilliom
30.0 30.0
2021 15.9
2022. These represented an increase of 54.2 per
2020 15.9
cent and 22.5 per cent, compared with 87.11
2019 23.2
billion shares and N953.87 billion, respectively, in
2018 22.3
1,060,017 deals in 2021. Equities transactions
2017 25.7
dominated the capital market activities,
2016 22.5
accounting for 75.2 per cent of the turnover
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
volume, and 99.7 per cent of the value of traded
Per cent
securities.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and
Figure 7.6.2: Volume and Value of Transactions on the NGX Limited.
NGX Limited
Market Participation
120.0 1400.0
Investors’ activities in the market showed that
domestic portfolio investment flows remained
100.0 1200.0
higher than foreign portfolio investment flows in
1000.0
Value (N Billion)
Volume (Billion)
FGN Bond
76.1%
Per cent
15
secondary income account. The Bank sustained its
10
interventions in the foreign exchange market to 5
ensure stability, amidst persisting demand 0
-5 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
pressure. The stock of external reserves declined to
-10
US$36.61 billion at end-December 2022,
compared with US$40.23 billion at end-December CAB IMP (G&S) EXP (G&S)
2021. Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
40,000
30,000 An analysis of import by major groups22 revealed
20,000
the dominance of capital goods and raw materials,
10,000
0
with a share of 56.3 per cent of the total, while
-10,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 consumer goods accounted for 42.8 per cent.
-20,000 Miscellaneous import accounted for the balance of
Export Import Trade Balance
0.9 per cent. The dominance of capital goods and
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
raw materials category reflected an improvement
in productive activities in 2022.
Import (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) In value terms, importation of capital goods and
raw materials rose by 20.7 per cent to US$36.06
The sustained improvement in domestic economic
billion in 2022, compared with US$29.14 billion in
activities boosted the demand for merchandise
2021. A disaggregation revealed that importation
import. Import (unadjusted for balance of
of capital goods, with a value of US$30.24 billion,
payments) rose by 14.2 per cent to US$64.01
accounted for 47.2 per cent of the total, while raw
billion in 2022, from US$56.07 billion in 2021,
materials, at US$5.82 billion, represented 9.1 per
owing to the increase in the importation of both
cent.
petroleum products and non-oil products.
Specifically, the need to bridge the demand- Import of consumer goods also rose by 5.9 per
supply gap, which was prevalent in 2022, boosted cent to US$27.37 billion, relative to US$25.84
the demand for petroleum products, especially billion in 2021. Within the category, import of
Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Thus, the durable goods at US$14.94 billion constituted 23.3
importation of petroleum products increased by per cent of total import, while that of non-durable
43.7 per cent to US$23.33 billion, from US$16.24 goods at US$12.42 billion, represented 19.4 per
billion in 2021. Non-oil import also increased, by cent of the total. Miscellaneous import was
2.1 per cent to US$40.68 billion, relative to US$0.41 billion.
US$39.83 billion in 2021. Analysis of import shows
that non-oil import remained dominant,
accounting for 63.6 per cent of the total, while oil
import accounted for the balance of 36.4 per cent.
0.9% 25.0
20.0 17.4
Per cent
Consumer
15.0
Goods, 56.3% 10.8
10.0 8.5
6.9 6.2
5.3
Capital 3.2 3.3
5.0 2.7 2.9
Goods and
Raw
-
Materials,
Pulp of wood…
Prepared foodstuffs…
Vehicles, aircraft…
Vegetable products
Mineral products
Base metals…
Optical, photographic…
42.8%
allied
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
58.2
53.7 Similarly, receipts from gas export, increased by
51.2
50.6
60.0
29.4 per cent to US$7.36 billion, equivalent to 1.5
42.2
50.0
Per cent
33.4
30.5
40.0
27.6
30.0
17.4
13.5
12.7
20.0
Non-oil export, including electricity export
5.5
3.7
3.3
3.2
3.0
10.0
increased by 18.3 per cent to US$7.12 billion or
0.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2022, compared with
US$6.02 billion or 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2021. The
Industrial Countries Asia (excluding Japan) development was on account of increased
Other Countries Africa receipts, particularly, from the export of fertiliser
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
and agricultural commodities, occasioned by the
favourable commodity prices.
Export (Free on Board)
Aggregate export earnings rose in 2022, on
Crude Oil Exports
account of higher commodity prices, occasioned by
the Russia-Ukraine war. Consequently, export Nigeria’s crude oil export increased by 41.5 per
earnings increased significantly, by 37.1 per cent cent to US$49.75 billion, relative to US$35.16
to US$64.23 billion, equivalent to 13.5 per cent of billion in 2021, despite the decline in the volume
GDP, relative to US$46.86 billion or 11.1 per cent of crude oil production, occasioned by the
of GDP in 2021. A breakdown of total export shows lingering domestic production challenges. A
that crude oil and gas remained dominant, at 88.9 breakdown of export by destination shows that
per cent, with crude oil accounting for 77.5 per India maintained its lead as the highest importer
cent of the total, while gas was 11.4 per cent. Non- of Nigeria’s crude oil, followed by Spain, The
oil export accounted for the balance of 11.1 per Netherlands, Indonesia, the United States, France,
cent. Italy, and South Africa.
Further analysis showed that crude oil and gas By continent, Europe was the major destination
receipts rose by 39.8 per cent to US$57.11 billion for Nigeria’s crude oil export, with US$23.35
or 12.0 per cent of GDP, above the US$40.84 billion, representing 46.9 per cent of the total.
billion or 9.6 per cent of GDP in 2021. Within the group, Spain ranked highest with
US$6.15 billion, accounting for 12.4 per cent of
45.8
45.6
46.9
43.5
50.0
billion (6.4 per cent); Italy, US$2.51 billion (5.0 per
38.2
45.0
40.0
31.8
cent); United Kingdom, US$1.38 billion (2.8 per 35.0
27.7
26.8
26.8
25.0
% Share of Total
cent); and Sweden, US$1.22 billion (2.4 per cent). 30.0
21.2
25.0
Other countries in the group accounted for the
16.6
14.5
14.2
13.4
13.2
20.0
12.8
12.6
11.4
10.7
balance. 15.0
10.0
Asia followed, with US$13.76 billion or 27.7 per 5.0
cent of the total. In the group, India imported 0.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Nigeria’s crude oil worth US$7.41 billion or 14.9
per cent of the total. Next was Indonesia, with a Europe Americas Asia & Far East Africa
value of US$4.49 billion or 9.0 per cent, and Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Thailand, US$0.79 billion or 1.6 per cent. Other
countries in the group accounted for the balance. Non-oil Exports
Export to the African and North American The drive by the Bank to boost non-oil export,
continents was US$5.33 billion and US$5.31 particularly, through the RT-200 policy, 100 for
billion, respectively. Within the African Continent, 100 PPP, among other policies, coupled with the
export to South Africa was the highest at US$2.09 favourable commodity prices, resulted in higher
billion (4.2 per cent), followed by Côte d’Ivoire non-oil export receipts. In 2022, non-oil export
with a value of US$1.93 billion (3.9 per cent), receipts increased by 18.3 per cent to US$7.12
Senegal, US$0.70 billion (1.4 per cent); and Togo, billion or 1.5 per cent of GDP, compared with
US$0.61 billion (1.2 per cent). In Northern US$6.02 billion or 1.3 per cent of GDP in 2021. A
America, the USA and Canada, imported Nigeria’s disaggregation of non-oil export showed that
crude valued at US$3.51 billion (7.1 per cent) and receipts from ‘other’ non-oil export increased by
US$1.81 billion (3.6 per cent). 20.0 per cent to US$6.96 billion, compared with
Nigeria realised US$1.90 billion (3.8 per cent) from US$5.80 billion in 2021. Conversely, receipts from
the export of crude oil to South America, with electricity export declined by 27.2 per cent to
Brazil, Peru, and Uruguay, accounting for 2.4 per US$0.16 billion, relative to US$0.21 billion in the
cent, 0.8 per cent, and 0.6 per cent, respectively. preceding year.
An analysis of non-oil export by products revealed
that the export of urea constituted the bulk at
US$2.28 billion or 32.1 per cent of the total. This
was followed by receipts from the export of cocoa
beans valued at US$0.88 billion, representing 12.4
per cent of the total. Export of sesame seeds
realised US$0.46 billion (6.5 per cent), while that
of aluminium was US$0.39 billion (5.5 per cent),
and cashew nut, US$0.35 billion (4.9 per cent).
Export of tobacco at US$0.16 billion, accounted
for 2.2 per cent of the total, while copper, with
10.8
10 6.9
Semi- 3.6 2.8
5 2.6
manufactured 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1
Products
14.8% 0
Minerals
7.9%
Manufactured
6.7%
15
Arabia. Outspan Nigeria Limited ranked 5th with 10.9
10
US$150.51 million or 3.6 per cent of the total,
4.2 3.7 3.6 3.6
from the export of cotton lint, sesame seeds, 5 3.4
1.9 1.9 1.6
cocoa beans and dry ginger to The Netherlands, 0
Per cent
Receipts from financial services also increased, by
30
27.6 per cent to US$0.80 billion, relative to
US$0.63 billion in 2021. Receipts from 20
telecommunications services increased to
10
US$0.26 billion, compared with US$0.17 billion in
2021. 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
46.2
In terms of share in total payments, transportation
41.2
41.1
services accounted for 46.2 per cent, while travel
37.0
34.9
services was 21.5 per cent. Payments for other
33.7
31.0
business services constituted 19.6 per cent,
27.7
25.9
25.8
27
PER CENT
21.5
insurance services, 3.7 per cent,
20.6
19.6
17.8
telecommunications services, 3.0 per cent, and
government services, 1.7 per cent. “Other
9.0
8.4
4.40
4.30
categories” of services accounted for the balance.
5.8
5.5
2.60
3.7
1.80
3.5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Table 8.2.1: Net Share of Major Invisible Transactions
(Per cent) 2018 – 2022
Items 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Transport Travels Other Businesses
Insurance Services Other Services
Transportation 19.3 14.6 20.3 26.0 48.5
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Travel 29.2 35.6 30.3 34.8 20.9
Insurance and 1.3 1.5 3.3 4.2 4.2
Pensions Services
Telecommunication, -0.2 -0.2 -0.9 -0.6 2.1 8.2.3 The Primary Income Account
Computer and
Information Services The deficit in the primary income account widened
Construction Services 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
significantly, owing mainly to the repatriation of
Financial Services 0.5 -0.6 -1.1 -2.0 -2.7
Government Services -0.8 -0.6 45.8 -1.7 -0.8 higher dividends by non-resident investors,
reflecting improvement in domestic economic
Personal, Cultural & 0.2 0.3 0 0.0 0.1
Recreational Services activities. The primary income account posted a
Other Business 48.5 47.9 -1.4 34.2 25.8
Services higher deficit of US$12.87 billion, equivalent to 2.7
Maintenance and 0.1 per cent of GDP in 2022, relative to US$8.58 billion
Repair Services n.i.e
Charges for the use 1.8 or 2.0 per cent of GDP in 2021, indicating an
of intellectual increase of 50.0 per cent. The development was
property n.i.e.
Total 100 100 100 100 100 attributed, mainly, to higher claims by non-
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria. resident investors, which rose by 38.8 per cent to
US$14.54 billion, from US$10.48 billion in 2021,
on account of higher dividend and interest
payments to non-residents. Income on direct
investment grew by 40.5 per cent to US$12.47
billion, relative to US$8.87 billion in 2021.
The development was due, largely, to the 35.9 per
cent and 80.9 per cent increase in dividend
payments and reinvested earnings to US$10.64
billion and US$1.76 billion in 2022, relative to
US$7.83 billion and US$0.97 billion, respectively,
in 2021. This reflected an uptick in domestic
0.23
0.22
0.21
0.16
25000
(5) 10000
(5.28)
(5.44)
5000
(10)
(8.56)
(8.77)
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
(12.49)
(12.71)
(12.87)
(15)
(13.10)
General Government
(20) Other Sectors (remittances and other transfers in kind)
Primary Income (Net) Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Investment Income (Net)
Compensation of Employees (Net)
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
5000
0
private sector.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-5000
External reserves decreased by US$3.32 billion, in
-10000
-15000
contrast to an accretion of US$0.30 billion in 2021.
-20000 This was due, mainly, to the Bank’s intervention at
-25000 the foreign exchange market to stabilise the
exchange rate, financing of import, and debt
Net Financial Position NAFA NIL
servicing.
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Figure 8.3.2: Financial Assets
12000
8000
Foreign financial assets decreased to US$6.50 6000
0
The decrease was attributed, largely, to the 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-2000
divestment of FDI equity, lower foreign currency -4000
-10000
A divestment of FDI equity worth US$0.07 billion
was recorded in 2022, as against an acquisition of Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investment
Financial Derivatives Reserve Assets
US$0.49 billion in 2021. The development was Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
23
Based on commercial banks returns.
8.4.2 Capital Importation by Country of Origin Figure 8.4. 1: Capital Importation by Country of Origin
United
followed by the Republic of South Africa, with South Africa
7.9% Kingdom
52.1%
US$0.43 billion or 7.9 per cent. Inflow from
Singapore
Singapore was US$0.42 billion (7.8 per cent); the 7.8%
Loans
42.6%
8.4.4 Capital Importation by Destination Capital
35.3%
Lagos State received the highest inflow of capital
at US$3.71 billion, constituting 68.3 per cent of
the total. Federal Capital Territory (FCT) followed,
with US$1.63 billion or 30.4 per cent of the total. Dividends
22.0%
Other States accounted for the balance.
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
430
Figure 8.5.1: International Investment Position, 2018-
2022 (US$ Million) 410
390
300000 370
250000
350
200000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US$ MILLION
150000
100000 Average End-Period
50000 Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-50000 8.7 THE NOMINAL AND REAL EFFECTIVE
-100000
EXCHANGE RATES
Total Assets Total Liabilities Net IIP The average 19-currency nominal effective
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
exchange rate (NEER) index decreased by 3.7 per
cent to 192.83 index points in 2022, from 200.16
8.6 EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS index points in 2021, indicating a nominal
depreciation of the currency, relative to the major
Heightened demand pressures, amid supply trading partners. The average 19-currency real
shortages, led to the depreciation of the naira effective exchange rate (REER) index, which
exchange rate at the Investors’ and Exporters’ measures external competitiveness, was 63.00
(I&E) window. The annual average exchange rate index points in 2022, reflecting a decrease of 13.3
at the I&E window depreciated by 4.0 per cent to per cent, from 72.69 index points in the preceding
₦425.98/US$ in 2022, relative to ₦408.96/US$ in period. This indicated improved competitiveness
150
130
110
90
70
50
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12
2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021
NEER REER
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria.
The Bank participated in various regional and non- i. 50th and 51st Meetings of the
regional meetings in 2022. At the regional level, Technical Committee of the West
the 44th and 45th Meetings of the Committee of African Monetary Zone
Governors of Central Banks of member states of The 50th and 51st Meetings of the Technical
the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) were Committee of the WAMZ were held in February
held, wherein members stressed the need for the and August 2022, respectively. The meetings
establishment of a harmonised supervisory and focused on the status of implementation of the
regulatory framework in the region. The WAMZ’s work programme and activities under the
Committee encouraged member states to share ECOWAS single currency programme. Various
experiences on banking supervision and regulatory recommendations were made, among which
practices for managing NPLs. At the non-regional were:
level, the 77th session of the UN General Assembly sustain the short-term efforts to curb the
(UNGA 77) acknowledged the shared root of global spread of the COVID-19 virus, and contain
crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia- its impact on real sector activities;
Ukraine war, the energy crisis, and climate change fast-track the implementation of reforms
as well as emphasised the need for solutions that that address structural challenges and
would build global sustainability and resilience. At invest in social infrastructure, as well as
the level of international cooperation, the 2022 provide adequate social safety nets to
Annual Meetings of the Bretton Woods Institutions enhance resilience to shocks;
(BWIs) observed that multiple compounding crises increase investment in the agriculture
severely worsened the global economic outlook and mining sectors, to modernise their
and development prospects of countries. The operations and realise their potentials as
meeting called for increased actions among the well as improve road infrastructure to
international financial institutions (IFIs), to cushion facilitate transportation in major food
the effects of the global economic, political, and producing areas;
humanitarian turmoil, particularly in low-income increase investment in growth-enhancing
countries, and emerging market and developing capital projects to sustain long-term
economies (EMDEs). growth and reposition the private sector
for inclusive growth and employment
generation;
adopt measures to deepen fiscal
consolidation, such as, boosting revenue
mobilisation by strengthening tax
administration and public financial
management, while implementing
expenditure rationalisation measures
anchored on debt burden reduction;