KTL 3319
KTL 3319
KTL 3319
1 80 65
2 100 77
3 120 89
4 140 101
5 160 113 200
6 180 125
180
7 200 137
8 220 149 160
9 240 161 140
10 260 173
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
50 100 150
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R 1
Standard E4.5506E-15
Observatio 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 11880 11880 5.74E+32 1E-128
Residual 8 1.657E-28 2.071E-29
Total 9 11880
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 17 4.495E-15 3.78E+15 2.68E-122 17 17 17 17
X Variable 0.6 2.505E-17 2.4E+16 1E-128 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Y
Upper 95.0%
STT X1 X2 X3 Y
1 120.753 281.5 1 8911.4
2 122.242 284.4 2 10873.2
3 125.263 289.9 3 11132.5
4 128.539 375.8 4 12086.5
5 131.427 375.2 5 12767.5
6 134.267 402.5 6 16347.1
7 139.038 478 7 19542.7
8 146.45 553.4 8 21075.9
9 153.714 616.7 9 23052.6
10 164.783 695.7 10 26128.2
11 176.864 790.8 11 29563.7
12 188.146 816 12 33367.6
13 205.841 848.4 13 38354.8
14 221.748 873.4 14 46868.3
15 239.715 999.2 15 54308.9
Y=-33115,79 +358,98X1
X1
SUMMARY OUTPUT Y
60000
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.994923 50000
R Square 0.989873
40000
Adjusted R 0.989094
Standard E 1447.922 30000
Observatio 15
20000
10000
40000
30000
20000
ANOVA
10000
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2.66E+09 2.66E+09 1270.647 2.367E-14 0
Residual 13 27254232 2096479 100 120 140 160 180
Total 14 2.69E+09
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
Intercept -33115.79 1653.316 -20.02993 3.727E-11 -36687.56 -29544 -36687.56095 -29544
X Variable 358.98 10.07066 35.64614 2.367E-14 337.2237 380.7364 337.2237111 380.7364
X2
SUMMARY OUTPUT Y
60000
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.961814 50000
R Square 0.925086
Adjusted R 0.919323 40000
Standard E 3938.024
30000
Observatio 15
20000
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F 10000
Regression 1 2.49E+09 2.49E+09 160.532 1.086E-08
Residual 13 2.02E+08 15508030 0
200 300 400 500 600
Total 14 2.69E+09
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
Intercept -7296.938 2692.556 -2.710042 0.017849 -13113.85 -1480.026 -13113.85074 -1480.026
X Variable 54.58362 4.308058 12.67012 1.086E-08 45.27663 63.89062 45.27662933 63.89062
X3
SUMMARY OUTPUT Y
60000
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.954375 50000
R Square 0.910832
Adjusted R 0.903972 40000
Standard E 4296.374
30000
Observatio 15
20000
ANOVA
10000
0
0 2 4 6 8
30000
20000
df SS MS F Significance F 10000
Regression 1 2.45E+09 2.45E+09 132.7915 3.392E-08
0
Residual 13 2.4E+08 18458829 0 2 4 6 8
Total 14 2.69E+09
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
Intercept 622.0686 2334.47 0.266471 0.794056 -4421.247 5665.384 -4421.246908 5665.384
X Variable 2958.749 256.7575 11.52352 3.392E-08 2404.058 3513.44 2404.05818 3513.44
Y
140 160 180 200 220 240 260
4 6 8 10 12 14 16
4 6 8 10 12 14 16
STT X1 Y LnX1 lnY X2 X3 LnX2 LnX3
1 120.753 8911.4 4.79374713694455 9.095086634946 281.5 1 5.640132 0
2 122.242 10873.2 4.80600268654091 9.294056325016 284.4 2 5.650382 0.693147
3 125.263 11132.5 4.83041552699408 9.317624037196 289.9 3 5.669536 1.098612
4 128.539 12086.5 4.8562323602334 9.399844406246 375.8 4 5.929057 1.386294
5 131.427 12767.5 4.87845156439455 9.454658158522 375.2 5 5.927459 1.609438
6 134.267 16347.1 4.89983035479486 9.701805790563 402.5 6 5.997695 1.791759
7 139.038 19542.7 4.9347472770638 9.880357094147 478 7 6.169611 1.94591
8 146.45 21075.9 4.98668407327374 9.955885486585 553.4 8 6.316081 2.079442
9 153.714 23052.6 5.03509373292863 10.04553384033 616.7 9 6.424383 2.197225
10 164.783 26128.2 5.10462945681469 10.1707704698 695.7 10 6.544919 2.302585
11 176.864 29563.7 5.17538107565085 10.29430253638 790.8 11 6.673045 2.397895
12 188.146 33367.6 5.23721825718019 10.41534064827 816 12 6.704414 2.484907
13 205.841 38354.8 5.32710402610393 10.55463496194 848.4 13 6.743352 2.564949
14 221.748 46868.3 5.40154160198329 10.75509681972 873.4 14 6.772394 2.639057
15 239.715 54308.9 5.47945071770518 10.90244339673 999.2 15 6.906955 2.70805
lnY
11.5
11
10.5
10
9.5
8.5
8
4.7 4.8 4.9 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.976826
R Square 0.954189 LnY=-2,37668 + 2,440872LnX1
Adjusted R 0.950665
Standard E 0.125779
Observatio 15
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 4.283748 4.28374827545789 270.7744782828 4.383E-10
Residual 13 0.205665 0.01582035464577
Total 14 4.489413
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
Intercept -2.376677 0.749757 -3.16993022332323 0.007382850039 -3.996428 -0.756926 -3.996428 -0.756926
X Variable 2.440872 0.148334 16.4552264731558 4.38260232E-10 2.120416 2.761329 2.120416 2.761329
LnX2
8
0
9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.979915
R Square 0.960233
Adjusted R 0.957174
Standard E 0.117188
Observatio 15
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 4.310884 4.31088433611449 313.9077556593 1.742E-10
Residual 13 0.178529 0.01373296536449
Total 14 4.489413
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 2.159164 0.44072 4.89917775730374 0.000290521872 1.207047 3.11128 1.207047 3.11128
X Variable 1.242168 0.07011 17.7174421308286 1.74225678E-10 1.090705 1.393631 1.090705 1.393631
LnX3
3
2.5
2
LnX3
3
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.919616
R Square 0.845693
Adjusted R 0.833823
Standard E 0.230843
Observatio 15
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3.796664 3.79666359208002 71.24745869928 1.237E-06
Residual 13 0.692749 0.0532884072133
Total 14 4.489413
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 8.710517 0.158387 54.9950320865324 8.74481911E-17 8.368342 9.052692 8.368342 9.052692
X Variable 0.665956 0.078897 8.4408209730619 1.23702971E-06 0.495509 0.836402 0.495509 0.836402
Upper 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
stt X Y LnX LnY
1 1 195 0 5.273
2 2 225 0.693147 5.4161 a
3 3 242 1.098612 5.488938
4 4 245 1.386294 5.501258 Y
5 5 258 1.609438 5.55296 450
6 6 260 1.791759 5.560682 400
350
7 7 275 1.94591 5.616771 300
8 8 298 2.079442 5.697093 250
200
9 9 350 2.197225 5.857933 150
10 10 425 2.302585 6.052089 100
50
0
b1 0 2 4 6 8 10
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.912927
R Square 0.833436
Adjusted R 0.812616
Standard E 28.86006
Observatio 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 33340.88 33340.88 40.02972 0.000226
Residual 8 6663.224 832.903
Total 9 40004.1
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 166.7333 19.71517 8.457107 2.921E-05 121.2701 212.1966 121.2701 212.1966
X Variable 20.10303 3.177388 6.326905 0.000226 12.77596 27.4301 12.77596 27.4301
b2
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.810595
R Square 0.657064
Adjusted R 0.614197
Standard E 41.41084
Observatio 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 26285.24 26285.24 15.32794 0.004449
Residual 8 13718.86 1714.858
Total 9 40004.1
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 165.9423 31.31296 5.299475 0.000729 93.73443 238.1501 93.73443 238.1501
X Variable 73.72531 18.83106 3.915091 0.004449 30.30081 117.1498 30.30081 117.1498
b3
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.951662
R Square 0.905661
Adjusted R 0.893869
Standard E 0.986341
Observatio 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 74.71706 74.71706 76.80083 2.253E-05
Residual 8 7.782942 0.972868
Total 9 82.5
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -0.4371 0.745825 -0.586062 0.573992 -2.156976 1.282776 -2.156976 1.282776
X Variable 3.930706 0.448526 8.763609 2.253E-05 2.896403 4.965008 2.896403 4.965008
b4
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.873344
R Square 0.762731
Adjusted R 0.733072
Standard E 0.115165
Observatio 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.341082 0.341082 25.71694 0.000964
Residual 8 0.106104 0.013263
Total 9 0.447186
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5.200544 0.087082 59.71983 6.867E-12 4.999732 5.401356 4.999732 5.401356
X Variable 0.265577 0.05237 5.071187 0.000964 0.144812 0.386342 0.144812 0.386342
Y
6 8 10 12
Upper 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
stt X Y X^2 Y^2 XY
1 148.23 19.74 21972.1329 389.6676 2926.06
2 75.25 10.07 5662.5625 101.4049 757.7675
30
3 181.32 26.72 32876.9424 713.9584 4844.87
4 131.88 17.82 17392.3344 317.5524 2350.102 25
5 69.84 9.14 4877.6256 83.5396 638.3376
20
6 67.25 9.15 4522.5625 83.7225 615.3375
7 34.82 4.5 1212.4324 20.25 156.69 15
8 66.76 9.04 4456.8976 81.7216 603.5104
9 7.23 0.96 52.2729 0.9216 6.9408 10
10 8.07 1.13 65.1249 1.2769 9.1191
5
11 20.43 2.69 417.3849 7.2361 54.9567
12 33.45 4.57 1118.9025 20.8849 152.8665 0
0 20
tong 844.53 115.53 94627.1755 1822.137 13116.56
TB 70.3775 9.6275 7885.59795833333 151.8447 1093.047
S^2(X) 2932.605 S^2(Y) 59.15595
a -0.343479 ESS 706.3871
b 0.141679 TSS 709.8714
R^2 0.995092 Vì R^2 >0.9 => MH thuộc dữ liệu dãy số
R^2=ESS/TSS 0.995092
2027.356
4.964603
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99754282
R Square 0.995091678
Adjusted R 0.994600846 Y=-0.343478687 + 0.141678501X
Standard E 0.590277706 Y/n: khi thu nhập X tăng 1đv => Mức thuế Y tăng
Observatio 12
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 706.387147301645 706.3871 2027.356 7.025E-13
Residual 10 3.48427769835462 0.348428
Total 11 709.871425
25
20
15
10
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
RSS 3.48427769835488
Var (b^) 9.90097302917569E-06
se(b^) 0.00314658116519751
.9 => MH thuộc dữ liệu dãy số tg Epsilon_b T 45.02617
141678501X
tăng 1đv => Mức thuế Y tăng 0.1416785 đv
Significance F
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 33340.88 33340.87576 40.02972 0.000226
Residual 8 6663.224 832.9030303
Total 9 40004.1
CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 166.7333333 19.71517 8.457106917 2.921E-05 121.2701 212.19660580872 121.2701 212.1966
X Variable 20.1030303 3.177388 6.32690452 0.000226 12.77596 27.4301000991123 12.77596 27.4301
SRF: Y^=166.7333333+20.1030303X
ý nghĩa: b^=20.1030303
khi sản lượng tăng 1đv thì chi phí tăng 20.1030303 tỷ
Y
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Upper 95.0%
stt X Y X^2 XY Y^2
1 120 15 14400 1800 225
2 130 17 16900 2210 289 SRF: Y^=-26.9186+0.333624X
3 145 20 21025 2900 400 ý nghĩa: b^=0.333624
4 149 21 22201 3129 441 khi doanh thu tăng 1 tỷ thì lợi nhuận tăn
5 155 24 24025 3720 576
6 162 26 26244 4212 676
7 165 27 27225 4455 729
8 174 35 30276 6090 1225
Tong 1200 185 182296 28516 4561
TB 150 23.125 22787 3564.5 570.125
s^2(x) 287 S^2(Y) 35.359375 RSS 27.31925
a -26.91855 ESS 255.55574913
b 0.333624 R^2 0.9034228869
TSS 282.875
R^2 >0.9 => MH thuộc dữ liệu dãy số tg
Var (a^) 45.189007665 Var (b^) 0.001983
SUMMARY OUTPUT se(a^) 6.7222769703 se(b^) 0.044532
Epsilon_a 16.449411746 Epsilon_b 0.10897
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.950486
R Square 0.903423 Y
40
Adjusted R 0.887327
35
Standard E 2.133825
30
Observatio 8
25
20
ANOVA
15
df SS MS F Significance F
10
Regression 1 255.5557 255.555749129 0.000292 5
Residual 6 27.31925 4.55320847851 0
Total 7 282.875 110 120 130 140 150 160
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -26.91855 6.722277 -4.0043803797 0.0070835556 -43.36737 -10.46973 -43.36737 -10.46973
X Variable 0.333624 0.044532 7.49176351243 0.0002923246 0.224658 0.44259 0.224658 0.44259
e./ kiểm định giả thuyết về sự phù hợp của mô hình: Y= a+bX+U
Giả thuyết: Ho: b=o; H1=b#0
Tiêu chuẩn ss:
Giá trị kiểm định: T= b^/Se(b^) 7.4917635124
Mức y/n -2.442 aphal - t(aphal/2)(n-2)
Miền bác bỏ Wa = (-oo; -2.447)U(2.447;+oo)
So sánh KL Bb Ho, Tạm chấp nhận H1 Vậy mô hình phù hợp với mức ý nghĩa 5%
5.987378
26.9186+0.333624X
^=0.333624
thu tăng 1 tỷ thì lợi nhuận tăng 0.333624 tỷ
#DIV/0!
Upper 95.0%
Stt X Y X^2 Y^2 XY
1 7 29 49 841 203
2 7 32 49 1024 224
3 6.5 32 42.25 1024 208
4 6.5 34 42.25 1156 221
5 6 34 36 1156 204
6 6 36 36 1296 216
7 5.5 45 30.25 2025 247.5
8 5.5 47 30.25 2209 258.5
9 5 50 25 2500 250
10 4.3 54 18.49 2916 232.2
Tong 59.3 393 358.49 16147 2264.2
Tb 5.93 39.3 35.849 1614.7 226.42
S^2(X) 0.6841 S^2(Y) 70.21
a 96.76232 ESS 642.357
b -9.690104 TSS 702.1
R^2 0.914908
Y=96.76232-9.6901
y/n: b^=-9.6901
Khi lai suat NH X tang 1 dv thi tong von dau tu Y giam 9.6901 ty dong
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.956508
R Square 0.914908
Adjusted R 0.904272
Standard E 2.732742
Observatio 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 642.357 642.357 86.016 1.485E-05
Residual 8 59.74302 7.467878
Total 9 702.1
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 96.76232 6.25572 15.46781 3.036E-07 82.3366
X Variable -9.690104 1.044814 -9.274481 1.485E-05 -12.09945
Lai suat ngan hang giai thich duoc 91.4% cho su thay doi tong
dau tu trong mo hinh;
8,6% con lai duoc giai thich boi ca yeu to khac nam ngoai mo
hinh
9.6901 ty dong
Significance F
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Tỷ lệ bỏ
Regression Statistics việc Y
Multiple R 0.8081821758 3
R Square 0.6531584293
Adjusted R Square 0.6216273775 2.5
Standard Error 0.3224212347
2
Observations 13
1.5
ANOVA
1
df SS MS F Significance F
0.5
0
2 3 4 5 6
1.5
-0.291745186399
0.0661935974718 a. SRF: Y^=3.36625797-0.28621174X
-0.3062298823667 ý nghĩa: b^=-0.28621174
-0.3348510563586 Khi tỷ lệ thất nghiệp X tăng 1đv thì tỷ lệ bỏ việc Y giảm -0.28621174
-0.4351992743021
-0.3214110142213 d. Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp giải thích được 65.3% cho sự thay đổi trong mô hình tỷ lệ bỏ việc;
0.1496195938433 34,7% còn lại được giải thích bởi các yếu tố khác nằm ngoài mô hình
-0.035895710189 (X giải thích cho Y)
0.0782407678352 e.
0.2782407678352 e = y - y^
0.3365277696494 0.5
0.3799818575525 0.4
0.4365277696494 0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
Tỷ lệ bỏ
việc Y
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
3 4 5 6 7 8 9