Sample Space and Counting Probability
Sample Space and Counting Probability
Counting Rules in
Probability
1
Probability
2
Sample Spaces and Probability
A probability experiment is a chance process
that leads to well-defined results called
outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
An event consists of outcomes.
3
Sample Spaces
4
Example: Rolling Dice
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.
5
Exercise
If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of getting
these results.
a. A sum of 6
b. Doubles
c. A sum of 7 or 11
d. A sum greater than 9
e. A sum less than or equal to 4
6
a. A sum of 6
2 Total of 36 outcomes
There are 6 or 36 outcomes.
There are 5 ways to get a sum of 6.
They are (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), and (5,1).
5
The probability then is .
36
b. Doubles
There are six ways to get doubles. They are (1,1), (2,2), (3,3),
(4,4), (5,5), and (6,6).
6 1
The probability is then = . 7
36 6
Total of 36 outcomes
c. A sum of 7 or 11
There are six ways to get a sum of 7. They are (1,6), (2,5),
(3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1).
There are two ways to get a sum of 11. They are (5,6) and
(6,5). 8 2
The probability then is = .
36 9
d. A sum of greater than 9
To get a sum greater than nine, one must roll a 10, 11, or 12.
There are six ways to get a 10, 11, or 12. They are (4,6), (5,5),
(6,4), (6,5), (5,6), and (6,6).
6 1
The probability then is = . 8
36 6
e. The patient has had 1 or 2 tests done.
Number of Number
Tests of
Performed Patients
0 12
1 8
2 2
3 3
4 or more 5
8+2
P(1 or 2 tests) =
30
= 10 = 1
30 3
9
Example: Gender of Children
Find the sample space for the gender of the
children if a family has three children. Use B for
boy and G for girl.
10
Example: Gender of Children
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for
the gender of three children in a family.
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG
11
Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations
of probability:
Classical probability
Empirical probability
Subjective probability
12
Sample Spaces and Probability
Classical probability uses sample spaces
to determine the numerical probability that
an event will happen and assumes that all
outcomes in the sample space are equally
likely to occur.
13
Sample Spaces and Probability
Rounding Rule for Probabilities
Probabilities should be expressed as reduced
fractions or rounded to two or three decimal
places. When the probability of an event is an
extremely small decimal, it is permissible to
round the decimal to the first nonzero digit after
the decimal point.
14
Example: Gender of Children
If a family has three children, find the probability
that two of the three children are girls.
Sample Space:
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG
15
Probability Rule 1
18
Sample Spaces and Probability
19
Example: Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event.
Event Complement
of the Event
Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6
Selecting a letter of the alphabet Getting a consonant (assume y is a
and getting a vowel consonant)
Selecting a month and getting a Getting February, March, April, May,
month that begins with a J August, September, October,
November, or December
Selecting a day of the week and Getting Saturday or Sunday
getting a weekday
20
Example: Residence of People
If the probability that a person lives in an
1
industrialized country of the world is 5 , find the
probability that a person does not live in an
industrialized country.
P Not living in industrialized country
= 1 P living in industrialized country
1 4
1
5 5
21
Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations
of probability:
Classical probability
Empirical probability
Subjective probability
22
Sample Spaces and Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes.
23
Example: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution
and find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
f
A 22 P O
B 5 n
AB 2 21
O 21 50
Total 50
24
Example: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution
and find the following probabilities.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
22 5
A 22 P A or B
B 5 50 50
AB 2 27
O 21 50
Total 50
25
Example: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution
and find the following probabilities.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
P neither A nor O
A 22
B 5 5 2
AB 2 50 50
O 21 7
Total 50 50
26
Example: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution
and find the following probabilities.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P not AB
B 5 1 P AB
AB 2
2 48 24
O 21 1
50 50 25
Total 50
27
Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations
of probability:
Classical probability
Empirical probability
Subjective probability
28
Sample Spaces and Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability
value based on an educated guess or
estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information.
29
Addition Rules for Probability
Two events are mutually exclusive
events if they cannot occur at the same
time (i.e., they have no outcomes in
common)
Addition Rules
P A or B P A P B Mutually Exclusive
P A or B P A P B P A and B Not M. E.
30
Example: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number
Mutually Exclusive
31
Example: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number
Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5
32
Example: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less
than 4
33
Example: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a
number less than 4
Mutually Exclusive
34
Example: Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5
physicians; 7 nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability
that the subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
P Nurse or Male P Nurse P Male P Male Nurse
8 3 1 10
13 13 13 13
35
Multiplication Rules
Multiplication Rules
P A and B P A P B Independent
P A and B P A P B A Dependent
36
Example: Tossing a Coin
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4
on the die.
Independent Events
P Head and 4 P Head P 4
1 1 1
2 6 12
Independent Events
P S and S and S P S P S P S
0.46 0.46 0.46
0.097
38
Example: University Crime
At a university in western Pennsylvania, there
were 5 burglaries reported in 2003, 16 in 2004,
and 32 in 2005. If a researcher wishes to select at
random two burglaries to further investigate, find
the probability that both will have occurred in
2004.
Dependent Events
P C1 and C2 P C1 P C 2 C1
16 15 60
53 52 689
39
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
P A and B
P B A
P A
40
Example: Parking Tickets
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone
and gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the probability
that Sam cannot find a legal parking space and has to
park in the no-parking zone is 0.20. On Tuesday, Sam
arrives at school and has to park in a no-parking zone.
Find the probability that he will get a parking ticket.
PNan
dT 0.06
PT
|N 0.30
PN
0.20
41
Example: Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought
women in the armed forces should be permitted to
participate in combat. The results of the survey
are shown.
42
Example: Women in the Military
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered
yes (Y), given that the respondent was a female (F).
8
PFa
ndY
YF PF 50 50 25
1
00 8 4
P
1
00
43
Example: Women in the Military
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male
(M), given that the respondent answered no (N).
18
PNa
ndM
M PN 6 1
00 18 3
P N
0 60 10
1
00
44
Example: Bow Ties
The Neckware Association of America reported that 3%
of ties sold in the United States are bow ties (B). If 4
customers who purchased a tie are randomly selected,
find the probability that at least 1 purchased a bow
tie.
P
B
0.
0
3,
P
B
1
0.
0
30
.
9
7
P
n
obo
w
ti
e
sP
B
P
B
P
B
P
B
0
.9
7
0.
9
7
0
.9
7
0.
9
7
0
.8
8
5
P at least 1 bow tie 1 P no bow ties
1 0.885 0.115
45
EXAMPLE
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:
a. A king or a queen or a jack.
b. A club or a heart or a spade.
c. A king or a queen or a diamond.
d. An ace or a diamond or a heart.
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
46
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:
a. A king or a queen or a jack.
47
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
b. A club or a heart or a spade.
There are 13 clubs, 13 hearts, and 13
spades, hence:
48
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
c. A king or a queen or a diamond.
There are 4 kings, 4 queens, and 13
diamonds but the king and queen of
diamonds were counted twice, hence:
P(king or queen or diamond)
= P(king) + P(queen) + P(diamond)
– P(king or queen of diamonds)
4 4 13 2 19
P= + + – =
52 52 52 52 52
49
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards, find the
probability of getting the following:
d. An ace or a diamond or a heart.
There are 4 aces, 13 diamonds and 13
hearts. There is one ace of diamonds
and one ace of hearts, hence:
P(ace or diamond or heart)
= P(ace) + P(diamond) + P(heart)
– P(ace of hearts or ace of diamonds)
4 13 13 2 28 7
P= + + – = =
52 52 52 52 52 13
50
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards, find the
probability of getting the following:
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
There are 4 nines, 4 tens, 13 spades, and 13
clubs. There is one nine of spades, one ten
of spades, one nine of clubs, and one ten of
clubs, hence:
P ( 9 or 10 or spade or club)
= P(9) + P(10) + P(spade) + P(club)
– P(9 of spades or 9 of clubs)
– P(10 of spades or 10 of clubs)
51
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards, find the
probability of getting the following:
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
P ( 9 or 10 or spade or club)
= P(9) + P(10) + P(spade) + P(club)
– P(9 of spades or 9 of clubs)
– P(10 of spades or 10 of clubs)
4 4 13 13 2 2
P= + + + – –
52 52 52 52 52 52
30 15
= =
52 26
52
EXAMPLE
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year students
have computers. If three students are selected at random,
find the following probabilities.
a. None have computers
b. At least one has a computer
c. All have computers
53
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year students
have computers. If three students are selected at random,
find the following probabilities.
a. None have computers
P(no computer) = 1 – 0.543 = 0.457
= 0.0954
54
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year students
have computers. If three students are selected at random,
find the following probabilities.
b. At least one has a computer
P(atleast one) = 1 – P(none of the three)
= 1– 0.0954
= 0.9046
55
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year students
have computers. If three students are selected at random,
find the following probabilities.
c. All have computers
P(allthree) = (0.543)3
= 0.1601
56
EXAMPLE
In Rolling Acres Housing Plan, 42% of the houses have
a deck and a garage; 60% have a deck. Find the
probability that a home has a garage, given
that it has a deck.
P(garage|deck) = 0.42
0.60
= 0.7 or 70%
57
EXAMPLE
Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
Consider this table concerning utility
patents granted for a specific year.
Select one patent at random.
a. What is the probability that it is a
foreign patent, given that it was
issued to a corporation?
b. What is the probability that it
was issued to an individual,
given that it was a U.S. patent?
58
Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
a. What is the probability that it is a
foreign patent, given that it was
issued to a corporation?
P(foreign patent | corporation)
P(corporation and foreign patent)
=
P(corporation)
59
Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
P(foreign patent | corporation)
P(corporation and foreign patent)
=
P(corporation)
63,182
147,497 63,182
= =
70,894 + 63,182 134,076
147,497
60
Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
P(foreign patent | corporation)
P(corporation and foreign patent)
=
P(corporation)
63,182
147,497
= = 0.4712
70,894 + 63,182
147,497
61
Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
b. What is the probability that it was
issued to an individual, given that
it was a U.S. patent?
P (individual | U.S.)
P(U.S. & individual )
=
P(U.S.)
62
Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
63
Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
64
Counting Rules
65
Example: Paint Colors
A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several different paints.
The categories include
Color: red, blue, white, black, green, brown, yellow
Type: latex, oil
Texture: flat, semi-gloss, high gloss
Use: outdoor, indoor
How many different kinds of paint can be made if you can select one
color, one type, one texture, and one use?
# of
# of # of # of
colors types textures uses
7 2 3 2
84 different kinds of paint
66
Counting Rules
Factorial is the product of all the positive numbers from 1 to
a number.
n ! n n 1 n 2 3 2 1
0! 1
Permutation is an arrangement of objects in a specific order.
Order matters.
n!
n Pr n n 1 n 2 n r 1
n r !
r items
67
Counting Rules
Combination is a grouping of objects. Order does
not matter.
n!
n Cr
n r !r !
Pr
n
r!
68
Example: Business Location
Suppose a business owner has a choice of 5 locations in
which to establish her business. She decides to rank
each location according to certain criteria, such as price
of the store and parking facilities. How many different
ways can she rank the 5 locations?
first second third fourth fifth
choice choice choice choice choice
5 4 3 2 1
120 different ways to rank the locations
69
Example: Business Location
Suppose the business owner in Example 4–42 wishes to
rank only the top 3 of the 5 locations. How many
different ways can she rank them?
first second third
choice choice choice
5 4 3
60 different ways to rank the locations
70
Example: Television Ads
The advertising director for a television show has 7 ads to
use on the program.
If she selects 1 of them for the opening of the show, 1 for
the middle of the show, and 1 for the ending of the show,
how many possible ways can this be accomplished?
Since order is important, the solution is
Hence, there would be 210 ways to show 3 ads.
71
Example: School Musical Plays
A school musical director can select 2 musical plays to
present next year. One will be presented in the fall, and
one will be presented in the spring. If she has 9 to pick
from, how many different possibilities are there?
72
Example: Book Reviews
A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He
decides that he can use 3 reviews in his newspaper. How
many different ways can these 3 reviews be selected?
8 7 6 P
or 8C3 56 or 8C3 56
8 3
3 2 3!
73
Example: Committee Selection
In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 3
women and 2 men is to be chosen. How many different
possibilities are there?
7! 5!
Women: 7C3 35, Men: 5C2 10
4!3! 3!2!
74
Probability and Counting Rules
The counting rules can be combined with the
probability rules in this chapter to solve
many types of probability problems.
C1 8 C1 6 8 48
6
14 C2 91 91
76
Example: Combination Lock
A combination lock consists of the 26 letters of the
alphabet. If a 3-letter combination is needed, find the
probability that the combination will consist of the letters
ABC in that order. The same letter can be used more than
once. (Note: A combination lock is really a
permutation lock.)
There are 26·26·26 = 17,576 possible combinations.
The letters ABC in order create one combination.
1
A
P B
C
1
7,57
6
77
EXAMPLE
How many different 3 - digit identification tags can be made if
the digits can be used more than once? If the first digit must
be a 5 and repetitions are not permitted?
If digits can be used more than
once: Since there are three
spaces to fill and 10 choices for
each space, the solution is:
10 10 10 = 1000
78
How many different 3 - digit identification tags can be made if
the digits can be used more than once? If the first digit must
be a 5 and repetitions are not permitted?
If the first digit must be a 5 and
repetitions are not permitted: There
is only one way to assign the first
digit, 9 ways to assign the second,
and 8 ways to assign the third:
1 9 8 = 72
79
EXAMPLE
How many different ID cards can be made if there are 6
digits on a card and no digit can be used more than
once?
Since order is important, the solution is:
10!
10 P6 = (10 – 6)!
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
=
4 3 2 1
= 151,200
80
EXAMPLE
How many ways can a committee of 4 people be selected
from a group of 10 people?
Since order is not important, the solution is:
C 10!
10 4 = 6!4! = 210
81
EXAMPLE
How many ways can a foursome of 2 men and 2 women
be selected from 10 men and 12 women in a golf club?
C 10! 12!
10 C12 12 2 =
8!2! 10!2!
= 45 66
= 2970
82
EXAMPLE
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3 men.
Three are selected to attend a management seminar. Find
these probabilities.
a. All 3 selected will be women.
b. All 3 selected will be men.
c. 2 men and 1 woman will be selected.
d. 1 man and 2 women will be selected.
83
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3 men.
Three are selected to attend a management seminar. Find
these probabilities.
a. All 3 selected will be women.
There are 4 C3 ways of selecting
3 women and 7 C3 total ways to
select 3 people; hence,
4 C3 4
P all women = =
7 C3 35
84
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3 men.
Three are selected to attend a management seminar. Find
these probabilities.
b. All 3 selected will be men.
There are 3 C3 ways of selecting
3 men; hence,
3 C3 1
P all men = =
7 C3 35
85
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3 men.
Three are selected to attend a management seminar. Find
these probabilities.
c. 2 men and 1 woman will be selected.
There are 3 C2 ways of selecting
2 men and 4 C1 ways of selecting
1 woman; hence,
3 C2 4 C1
P 2 men and 1 woman =
7 C3
12
=
35
86
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3 men.
Three are selected to attend a management seminar. Find
these probabilities.
d. 1 man and 2 women will be selected.
There are 3 C1 ways of selecting
1 man and 4 C2 ways of selecting
2 women; hence,
3 C1 4 C2
P 1 man and two women =
7 C3
18
=
35
87
EXAMPLE
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors and
8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee will
consist of:
a. All dentists.
b. 2 dentists and 2 doctors.
c. All doctors.
d. 3 doctors and 1 dentist.
e. 1 doctor and 3 dentists.
88
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors and
8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee will
consist of:
a. All dentists.
8 C4 70 10
= =
14 C4 1001 143
89
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors and
8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee will
consist of:
b. 2 dentists and 2 doctors.
6 C2 8 C2 420 60
= =
14 C4 1001 143
90
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors and
8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee will
consist of:
c. All doctors.
6 C4 15
=
14 C4 1001
91
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors and
8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee will
consist of:
d. 3 doctors and 1 dentist.
6 C3 8 C1 160
=
14 C4 1001
92
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors and
8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee will
consist of:
e. 1 doctor and 3 dentists.
6 C1 8 C3 336 48
= =
14 C4 1001 143
93
EXAMPLE
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8 identical
black socks. Suppose that you choose 2 socks at random
in the dark.
a. What is the probability that you
get a pair of red socks?
b. What is the probability that you
get a pair of black socks?
c. What is the probability that you
get 2 unmatched socks?
d. Where did the other red sock go?
94
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8 identical
black socks. Suppose that you choose 2 socks at random
in the dark.
a. What is the probability that you
get a pair of red socks?
11C2 55
= = 0.3216
19 C2 171
95
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8 identical
black socks. Suppose that you choose 2 socks at random
in the dark.
b. What is the probability that you
get a pair of black socks?
8 C2 28
= = 0.1637
19 C2 171
96
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8 identical
black socks. Suppose that you choose 2 socks at random
in the dark.
c. What is the probability that you get 2
unmatched socks?
11C1 8 C1 88
= = 0.5146
19 C2 171
97
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8 identical
black socks. Suppose that you choose 2 socks at random
in the dark.
d. Where did the other red sock go?
98
EXAMPLE
Find the probability that if 5 different- sized washers are
arranged in a row, they will be arranged in order of size.
There are 5! = 120 ways to arrange 5
washers in a row and 2 ways to have them
in correct order, small to large or large to
small; hence, the probability is:
2 1
=
120 60
99