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Learning Curves
Quantitative Module
E
Module Outline
LEARNING CURVES IN SERVICES USING SOFTWARE FOR LEARNING CURVES
AND MANUFACTURING SOLVED PROBLEMS
APPLYING THE LEARNING CURVE INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES
Arithmetic Approach DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
Logarithmic Approach ACTIVE MODEL EXERCISE
Learning-Curve Coefficient Approach
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
PROBLEMS
INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS
L EARNING O BJECTIVES
OF LEARNING CURVES
CASE STUDY: SMT’S NEGOTIATION WITH IBM When you complete this module you
LIMITATIONS OF LEARNING CURVES
BIBLIOGRAPHY should be able to
SUMMARY
INTERNET RESOURCES
KEY TERM
IDENTIFY OR DEFINE:
What a learning curve is
Example of learning curves
The doubling concept

DESCRIBE OR EXPLAIN:
How to compute learning curve effects
Why learning curves are important
The strategic implications of learning
curves
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772 MODULE E L E A R N I N G C U RV E S

Medical procedures such as heart surgery follow a learning curve. Research indicates that the death rate from heart
transplants drops at a 79% learning curve, a learning rate not unlike that in many industrial settings. It appears
that as doctors and medical teams improve with experience, so do your odds as a patient. If the death rate is halved
every three operations, practice may indeed make perfect.

Most organizations learn and improve over time. As firms and employees perform a task over and
over, they learn how to perform more efficiently. This means that task times and costs decrease.
Learning curves Learning curves are based on the premise that people and organizations become better at their
The premise that people tasks as the tasks are repeated. A learning curve graph (illustrated in Figure E.1) displays labor-
and organizations get hours per unit versus the number of units produced. From it we see that the time needed to produce
better at their tasks as a unit decreases, usually following a negative exponential curve, as the person or company produces
the tasks are repeated; more units. In other words, it takes less time to complete each additional unit a firm produces.
sometimes called
However, we also see in Figure E.1 that the time savings in completing each subsequent unit
experience curves.
decreases. These are the major attributes of the learning curve.
Learning curves were first applied to industry in a report by T. P. Wright of Curtis-Wright Corp.
in 1936.1 Wright described how direct labor costs of making a particular airplane decreased with
learning, a theory since confirmed by other aircraft manufacturers. Regardless of the time needed to
produce the first plane, learning curves are found to apply to various categories of air frames (e.g.,

FIGURE E.1 ■ Management uses this tool to forecast

how much labor hours or labor our cost
The Learning-Curve will increase as a result of more units
Effect States That Time being produced.
per Repetition
Cost / time per repetition

Decreases as the
Number of Repetitions Learning curve analysis is a systematic method
Increases for estimating cost.

0 Number of repetitions (volume)

1T. P. Wright, “Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes,” Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences (February 1936).
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L E A R N I N G C U RV E S IN S E RV I C E S AND M A N U FAC T U R I N G 773

jet fighters versus passenger planes versus bombers). Learning curves have since been applied not
only to labor but also to a wide variety of other costs, including material and purchased components.
The power of the learning curve is so significant that it plays a major role in many strategic deci-
sions related to employment levels, costs, capacity, and pricing.
The learning curve is based on a doubling of production: That is, when production doubles, the
decrease in time per unit affects the rate of the learning curve. So, if the learning curve is an 80%
rate, the second unit takes 80% of the time of the first unit, the fourth unit takes 80% of the time of
the second unit, the eighth unit takes 80% of the time of the fourth unit, and so forth. This principle
is shown as

T × Ln = Time required for the nth unit (E-1)

where T = unit cost or unit time of the first unit

L = learning curve rate
n = number of times T is doubled

If the first unit of a particular product took 10 labor-hours, and if a 70% learning curve is present, the
hours the fourth unit will take require doubling twice—from 1 to 2 to 4. Therefore, the formula is

Hours required for unit 4 = 10 × (.7)2 = 4.9 hours

LEARNING CURVES IN SERVICES AND MANUFACTURING

Try testing the learning- Different organizations—indeed, different products—have different learning curves. The rate of
curve effect on some learning varies depending on the quality of management and the potential of the process and prod-
activity you may be uct. Any change in process, product, or personnel disrupts the learning curve. Therefore, caution
performing. For example, should be exercised in assuming that a learning curve is continuing and permanent.
if you need to assemble As you can see in Table E.1, industry learning curves vary widely. The lower the number (say
four bookshelves, time
70% compared to 90%), the steeper the slope and the faster the drop in costs. By tradition, learning
your work on each and
note the rate of
curves are defined in terms of the complements of their improvement rates. For example, a 70%
improvement. learning curve implies a 30% decrease in time each time the number of repetitions is doubled. A
90% curve means there is a corresponding 10% rate of improvement.
Stable, standardized products and processes tend to have costs that decline more steeply than
others. Between 1920 and 1955, for instance, the steel industry was able to reduce labor-hours per
unit to 79% each time cumulative production doubled.
Learning curves have application in services as well as industry. As was noted in the caption for
the opening photograph, 1-year death rates of heart transplant patients at Temple University
Hospital follow a 79% learning curve. The results of that hospital’s 3-year study of 62 patients

TABLE E.1 ■
LEARNING-
Examples of Learning- CURVE
Curve Effects CUMULATIVE SLOPE
EXAMPLE IMPROVING PARAMETER PARAMETER (%)
1. Model-T Ford production Price Units produced 86
2. Aircraft assembly Direct labor-hours per unit Units produced 80
3. Equipment maintenance Average time to replace a Number of replacements 76
at GE group of parts
4. Steel production Production worker labor-hours Units produced 79
per unit produced
5. Integrated circuits Average price per unit Units produced 72a
6. Hand-held calculator Average factory selling price Units produced 74
7. Disk memory drives Average price per bit Number of bits 76
8. Heart transplants 1-year death rates Transplants completed 79
aConstant dollars.
Sources: James A. Cunningham, “Using the Learning Curve as a Management Tool,” IEEE Spectrum (June 1980): 45.
© 1980 IEEE; and David B. Smith and Jan L. Larsson, “The Impact of Learning on Cost: The Case of Heart
Transplantation,” Hospital and Health Services Administration (spring 1989): 85–97.
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774 MODULE E L E A R N I N G C U RV E S

receiving transplants found that every three operations resulted in a halving of the 1-year death rate.
As more hospitals face pressure from both insurance companies and the government to enter fixed-
price negotiations for their services, their ability to learn from experience becomes increasingly crit-
ical. In addition to having applications in both services and industry, learning curves are useful for a
Failure to consider the variety of purposes. These include:
effects of learning can lead
1. Internal: labor forecasting, scheduling, establishing costs and budgets.
to overestimates of labor
needs and underestimates 2. External: supply-chain negotiations (see the SMT case study at the end of this module).
of material needs. 3. Strategic: evaluation of company and industry performance, including costs and pricing.

APPLYING THE LEARNING CURVE

A mathematical relationship enables us to express the time required to produce a certain unit. This
relationship is a function of how many units have been produced before the unit in question and how
long it took to produce them. Although this procedure determines how long it takes to produce a
given unit, the consequences of this analysis are more far reaching. Costs drop and efficiency goes
Trade journals publish up for individual firms and the industry. Therefore, severe problems in scheduling occur if opera-
industrywide data on tions are not adjusted for implications of the learning curve. For instance, if learning-curve improve-
specific operations’ ment is not considered when scheduling, the result may be labor and productive facilities being idle
learning rates. a portion of the time. Furthermore, firms may refuse additional work because they do not consider
the improvement in their own efficiency that results from learning. From a supply-chain perspective,
our interest is in negotiating what our suppliers’ costs should be for further production of units based
on the size of an order. The foregoing are only a few of the ramifications of the effect of learning
curves.
With this in mind, let us look at three ways to approach the mathematics of learning curves: arith-
metic analysis, logarithmic analysis, and learning-curve coefficients.

Arithmetic Approach
The arithmetic approach is the simplest approach to learning-curve problems. As we noted at the
beginning of this module, each time that production doubles, labor per unit declines by a constant
factor, known as the learning rate. So, if we know that the learning rate is 80% and that the first unit
produced took 100 hours, the hours required to produce the second, fourth, eighth, and sixteenth
units are as follows:

NTH UNIT PRODUCED HOURS FOR NTH UNIT

1 100.0
2 80.0 = (.8 × 100)
4 64.0 = (.8 × 80)
8 51.2 = (.8 × 64)
16 41.0 = (.8 × 51.2)

As long as we wish to find the hours required to produce N units and N is one of the doubled values,
then this approach works. Arithmetic analysis does not tell us how many hours will be needed to
produce other units. For this flexibility, we must turn to the logarithmic approach.
TABLE E.2 ■

Learning Curve Logarithmic Approach

Values of b The logarithmic approach allows us to determine labor for any unit, TN, by the formula
LEARNING
RATE (%) b TN = T1(Nb) (E-2)

70 .515 where TN = time for the Nth unit

75 .415 T1 = hours to produce the first unit
80 .322
b = (log of the learning rate)/(log 2) = slope of the learning curve
85 .234
90 .152
Some of the values for b are presented in Table E.2. Example E1 shows how this formula works.
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A P P LY I N G THE L E A R N I N G C U RV E 775

Example E1 The learning rate for a particular operation is 80%, and the first unit of production took 100 hours. The
Using logs to compute hours required to produce the third unit may be computed as follows:
learning curves
TN = T1 ( N b )
Excel OM T3 = (100 hours)(3b )
Data File = (100)(3log .8/ log2 )
ModEExE1.xla
= (100)(3 −.322 ) = 70.2 labor-hours

The logarithmic approach allows us to determine the hours required for any unit produced, but there
is a simpler method.

Learning-Curve Coefficient Approach

The learning-curve coefficient technique is embodied in Table E.3 and the following equation:

TN = T1C (E-3)

where TN = number of labor-hours required to produce the Nth unit

T1 = number of labor-hours required to produce the first unit
C = learning-curve coefficient found in Table E.3

The learning-curve coefficient, C, depends on both the learning rate (70%, 75%, 80%, and so on)
and the unit of interest.

TABLE E.3 ■ Learning-Curve Coefficients, Where Coefficient, C = N (log of learning rate/log 2)

70% 75% 80% 85% 90%
UNIT
NUMBER UNIT TOTAL UNIT TOTAL UNIT TOTAL UNIT TOTAL UNIT TOTAL
(N) TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME
1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
2 .700 1.700 .750 1.750 .800 1.800 .850 1.850 .900 1.900
3 .568 2.268 .634 2.384 .702 2.502 .773 2.623 .846 2.746
4 .490 2.758 .562 2.946 .640 3.142 .723 3.345 .810 3.556
5 .437 3.195 .513 3.459 .596 3.738 .686 4.031 .783 4.339
6 .398 3.593 .475 3.934 .562 4.299 .657 4.688 .762 5.101
7 .367 3.960 .446 4.380 .534 4.834 .634 5.322 .744 5.845
8 .343 4.303 .422 4.802 .512 5.346 .614 5.936 .729 6.574
9 .323 4.626 .402 5.204 .493 5.839 .597 6.533 .716 7.290
10 .306 4.932 .385 5.589 .477 6.315 .583 7.116 .705 7.994
11 .291 5.223 .370 5.958 .462 6.777 .570 7.686 .695 8.689
12 .278 5.501 .357 6.315 .449 7.227 .558 8.244 .685 9.374
13 .267 5.769 .345 6.660 .438 7.665 .548 8.792 .677 10.052
14 .257 6.026 .334 6.994 .428 8.092 .539 9.331 .670 10.721
15 .248 6.274 .325 7.319 .418 8.511 .530 9.861 .663 11.384
16 .240 6.514 .316 7.635 .410 8.920 .522 10.383 .656 12.040
17 .233 6.747 .309 7.944 .402 9.322 .515 10.898 .650 12.690
18 .226 6.973 .301 8.245 .394 9.716 .508 11.405 .644 13.334
19 .220 7.192 .295 8.540 .388 10.104 .501 11.907 .639 13.974
20 .214 7.407 .288 8.828 .381 10.485 .495 12.402 .634 14.608
25 .191 8.404 .263 10.191 .355 12.309 .470 14.801 .613 17.713
30 .174 9.305 .244 11.446 .335 14.020 .450 17.091 .596 20.727
35 .160 10.133 .229 12.618 .318 15.643 .434 19.294 .583 23.666
40 .150 10.902 .216 13.723 .305 17.193 .421 21.425 .571 26.543
45 .141 11.625 .206 14.773 .294 18.684 .410 23.500 .561 29.366
50 .134 12.307 .197 15.776 .284 20.122 .400 25.513 .552 32.142
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776 MODULE E L E A R N I N G C U RV E S

Example E2 uses the preceding equation and Table E.3 to calculate learning-curve effects.

Example E2 It took a Korean shipyard 125,000 labor-hours to produce the first of several tugboats that you expect to
Using learning-curve purchase for your shipping company, Great Lakes, Inc. Boats 2 and 3 have been produced by the Koreans
coefficients with a learning factor of 85%. At $40 per hour, what should you, as purchasing agent, expect to pay for the
fourth unit?
Excel OM First, search Table E.3 for the fourth unit and a learning factor of 85%. The learning-curve coefficient,
Data File C, is .723. To produce the fourth unit, then, takes
ModEExE2.xla
TN = T1C
T4 = (125, 000 hours)(.723)
Active Model E.1 = 90,375 hours
To find the cost, multiply by $40:
Examples E2 and E3
are further illustrated 90,375 hours × $40 per hour = $3,615,000
in Active Model E.1 on
the CD-ROM and in the
Exercise on page 780. Table E.3 also shows cumulative values. These allow us to compute the total number of hours needed
to complete a specified number of units. Again, the computation is straightforward. Just multiply the
table value times the time required for the first unit. Example E3 illustrates this concept.

Example E3 Example E2 computed the time to complete the fourth tugboat that Great Lakes plans to buy. How long will
Using cumulative all four boats require?
coefficients Looking this time at the “total time” column in Table E.3, we find that the cumulative coefficient is
3.345. Thus, the time required is
TN = T1C
T4 = (125,000)(3.345) = 418,125 hours in total for all 4 boats
For an illustration of how Excel OM can be used to solve Examples E2 and E3, see Program E.1 at the end
of this module.

Using Table E.3 requires that we know how long it takes to complete the first unit. Yet, what hap-
pens if our most recent or most reliable information available pertains to some other unit? The
answer is that we must use these data to find a revised estimate for the first unit and then apply the
table to that number. Example E4 illustrates this concept.

Example E4 Great Lakes, Inc., believes that unusual circumstances in producing the first boat (see Example E2) imply
Revising learning-curve that the time estimate of 125,000 hours is not as valid a base as the time required to produce the third boat.
estimates Boat number 3 was completed in 100,000 hours.
To solve for the revised estimate for boat number 1, we return to Table E.3, with a unit value of N = 3
and a learning-curve coefficient of C = .773 in the 85% column. To find the revised estimate, we divide the
actual time for boat number 3, 100,000 hours, by C = .773
100, 000
= 129,366 hours
.773
So, 129,366 hours is the new (revised) estimate for boat 1.

STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF LEARNING CURVES

So far, we have shown how operations managers can forecast labor-hour requirements for a product.
We have also shown how purchasing agents can determine a supplier’s cost, knowledge that can help
in price negotiations. Another important application of learning curves concerns strategic planning.
An example of a company cost line and industry price line are so labeled in Figure E.2. These
learning curves are straight because both scales are log scales. When the rate of change is constant, a
log-log graph yields a straight line. If an organization believes its cost line to be the “company cost”
line, and the industry price is indicated by the dashed horizontal line, then the company must have
costs at the points below the dotted line (for example, point a or b) or else operate at a loss (point c).
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S U M M A RY 777

FIGURE E.2 ■

Industry Learning Curve Ind

for Price Compared with C us
om try

Price per unit (log scale)

Company Learning pa pr
ny ice
Curve for Cost co
st
Note: Both the vertical and (c)
horizontal axes of this figure Loss
are log scales. This is known (b)
as a log-log graph.
Gross profit (a)
margin

Accumulated volume (log scale)

Applications of the Lower costs are not automatic; they must be managed down. When a firm’s strategy is to pursue
learning curve: a curve steeper than the industry average (the company cost line in Figure E.2), it does this by
1. Internal → determine
labor standards and 1. Following an aggressive pricing policy.
rates of material supply 2. Focusing on continuing cost reduction and productivity improvement.
required. 3. Building on shared experience.
2. External → determine 4. Keeping capacity growing ahead of demand.
purchase costs.
3. Strategic → determine Costs may drop as a firm pursues the learning curve, but volume must increase for the learning curve
volume-cost changes. to exist. Moreover, managers must understand competitors before embarking on a learning-curve
strategy. Weak competitors are undercapitalized, stuck with high costs, or do not understand the
logic of learning curves. However, strong and dangerous competitors control their costs, have solid
financial positions for the large investments needed, and have a track record of using an aggressive
learning-curve strategy. Taking on such a competitor in a price war may help only the consumer.

LIMITATIONS OF LEARNING CURVES

Before using learning curves, some cautions are in order:
• Because learning curves differ from company to company, as well as industry to industry,
estimates for each organization should be developed rather than applying someone else’s.
• Learning curves are often based on the time necessary to complete the early units; therefore,
those times must be accurate. As current information becomes available, reevaluation is
appropriate.
• Any changes in personnel, design, or procedure can be expected to alter the learning curve,
causing the curve to spike up for a short time, even if it is going to drop in the long run.
• While workers and process may improve, the same learning curves do not always apply to
indirect labor and material.
• The culture of the workplace, as well as resource availability and changes in the process, may
alter the learning curve. For instance, as a project nears its end, worker interest and effort
may drop, curtailing progress down the curve.

SUMMARY The learning curve is a powerful tool for the operations manager. This tool can assist operations
managers in determining future cost standards for items produced as well as purchased. In addition,
the learning curve can provide understanding about company and industry performance. We saw
three approaches to learning curves: arithmetic analysis, logarithmic analysis, and learning-curve
coefficients found in tables. Software can also help analyze learning curves.
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778 MODULE E L E A R N I N G C U RV E S

KEY TERM Learning curves (p. 772)

USING SOFTWARE FOR LEARNING CURVES

Excel, Excel OM, and POM for Windows may all be used in analyzing learning curves. You can use the ideas
in the following section on Excel OM to build your own Excel spreadsheet if you wish.

Using Excel OM
Program E.1 shows how Excel OM develops a spreadsheet for learning-curve calculations. The input data
come from Examples E2 and E3. In cell B7, we enter the unit number for the base unit (which does not have to
be 1), and in B8 we enter the time for this unit.

These are used for computations. Do not touch these

cells. In cell B11, the time for the first unit is computed,
allowing us to use initial units other than unit 1. In cell
B12, the power to be raised to is computed, making
the formulas in the rest of column B much simpler.

=$B$11*POWER(1,$B$12) =SUM(B16:B16)

PROGRAM E.1 ■ Excel OM’s Learning-Curve Module, Using Data from Examples
E2 and E3

Using POM for Windows

POM for Windows’ Learning Curve module computes the length of time that future units will take, given the
time required for the base unit and the learning rate (expressed as a number between 0 and 1). As an option, if
the times required for the first and Nth units are already known, the learning rate can be computed. See
Appendix IV for further details.

SOLVED PROBLEMS
Solved Problem E.1
Digicomp produces a new telephone system with built-in TV (b) How long will the first 11 systems take in total?
screens. Its learning rate is 80%.
(c) As a purchasing agent, you expect to buy units 12 through 15
(a) If the first one took 56 hours, how long will it take Digicomp of the new phone system. What would be your expected cost
to make the eleventh system? for the units if Digicomp charges $30 for each labor-hour?
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DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 779

Solution from Table E.3—80% unit time

(a) TN = T1C
T11 = (56 hours)(.462) = 25.9 hours

(b) Total time for the first 11 units = (56 hours)(6.777) = 379.5 hours

from Table E.3—80% total time

(c) To find the time for units 12 through 15, we take the total cumulative time for units 1 to 15 and subtract
the total time for units 1 to 11, which was computed in part (b). Total time for the first 15 units = (56
hours)(8.511) = 476.6 hours. So, the time for units 12 through 15 is 476.6  379.5 = 97.1 hours. (This
figure could also be confirmed by computing the times for units 12, 13, 14, and 15 separately using the
unit-time column and then adding them.) Expected cost for units 12 through 15 = (97.1 hours) ($30 per
hour) = $2,913.

Solved Problem E.2

If the first time you performed a job took 60 minutes, how long will
the eighth job take if you are on an 80% learning curve?

Solution
Three doublings from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 implies .83. Therefore, we have

60 × (.8)3 = 60 × .512 = 30.72 minutes

or, using Table E.3, we have C = .512. Therefore:

60 × .512 = 30.72 minutes

INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES

Visit our Companion Web site or use your student CD-ROM to help with material in this module.

On Our Companion Web site, www.prenhall.com/heizer On Your Student CD-ROM

• Self-Study Quizzes • PowerPoint Lecture
• Practice Problems • Practice Problems
• Internet Exercises • Active Mode Exercises
• Internet Homework Problems • Excel OM
• Excel OM Example Data Files
• POM for Windows


DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
1. What are some of the limitations to the use of learning curves? 5. Why isn’t the learning-curve concept as applicable in a high-
2. Identify three applications of the learning curve. volume assembly line as it is in most other human activities?
3. What are the approaches to solving learning-curve problems? 6. What are the elements that can disrupt the learning curve?
4. Refer to Example E2: What are the implications for Great Lakes, 7. Explain the concept of the “doubling” effect in learning curves.
Inc., if the engineering department wants to change the engine in 8. What techniques can a firm use to move to a steeper learning
the third and subsequent tugboats that the firm purchases? curve?
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780 MODULE E L E A R N I N G C U RV E S

ACTIVE MODEL EXERCISE

This Active Model, found on your CD-ROM, allows you to evaluate important elements in the learning curve
model described in Examples E2 and E3. You may change any input parameter in a green colored cell.

ACTIVE MODEL E.2 ■

Great Lakes, Inc.

Learning Curve Analysis
of Boats, Using Example
E2 and E3 Data

Questions
1. If the learning is not as good as expected and rises to 90%, how much will the 4th boat cost?
2. What should the learning coefficient be to keep the total cost of the first 4 boats below $16,000,000?
3. How many boats need to be produced before the cost of an individual boat is below $4,000,000?
4. How many boats need to be produced before the average cost of each boat is below $4,000,000?

PROBLEMS*
P E.1 Amand Heinl, an IRS auditor, took 45 minutes to process her first tax return. The IRS uses an 85% learning
curve. How long will the
a) second return take?
b) fourth return take?

P
c) eighth return take?

E.2 Seton Hall Trucking Co. just hired Sally Kissel to verify daily invoices and accounts payable. She took 9 hours
and 23 minutes to complete her task on the first day. Prior employees in this job have tended to follow a 90%
learning curve. How long will the task take at the end of
a) the second day?
b) the fourth day?
c) the eighth day?
d) the sixteenth day?

P E.3 If Professor Tacy Quinn takes 15 minutes to grade the first exam, and follows an 80% learning curve, how long
will it take her
a) to grade the 25th exam?
b) to grade the first 10 exams?

*Note: means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows; means the problem may be solved with Excel
OM; and P means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows and/or Excel OM.
HEIZMX0E_013185755X.QXD 5/4/05 2:47 PM Page 781

P
P RO B L E M S 781
E.4 If it took 563 minutes to complete a hospital’s first cornea transplant, and the hospital uses a 90% learning rate,
what is the cumulative time to complete
a) the first 3 transplants?
b) the first 6 transplants?
c) the first 8 transplants?
d) the first 16 transplants?

P E.5 Beth Zion Hospital has received initial certification from the state of California to become a center for liver
transplants. The hospital, however, must complete its first 18 transplants under great scrutiny and at no cost to
the patients. The very first transplant, just completed, required 30 hours. On the basis of research at the hospi-
tal, Beth Zion estimates that it will have an 80% learning curve. Estimate the time it will take to complete
a) the fifth liver transplant.
b) all of the first 5 transplants.
c) the eighteenth transplant.
d) all 18 transplants.

P E.6 Refer to Problem E.5. Beth Zion Hospital has just been informed that only the first 10 transplants must be per-
formed at the hospital’s expense. The cost per hour of surgery is estimated to be $5,000. Again, the learning
rate is 80% and the first surgery took 30 hours.
a) How long will the tenth surgery take?
b) How much will the tenth surgery cost?

P
c) How much will all 10 cost the hospital?

E.7 Manceville Air has just produced the first unit of a large industrial compressor that incorporated new technol-
ogy in the control circuits and a new internal venting system. The first unit took 112 hours of labor to manu-
facture. The company knows from past experience that this labor content will decrease significantly as more
units are produced. In reviewing past production data, it appears that the company has experienced a 90%
learning curve when producing similar designs. The company is interested in estimating the total time to com-

P
plete the next 7 units. Your job as the production cost estimator is to prepare the estimate.

E.8 Candice Cotton, a student at San Diego State University, bought six bookcases for her dorm room. Each
required unpacking of parts and assembly, which included some nailing and bolting. Candice completed the
first bookcase in 5 hours and the second in 4 hours.
a) What is her learning rate?
b) Assuming the same rate continues, how long will the third bookcase take?
c) The fourth, fifth, and sixth cases?
d) All six cases?

P E.9 Professor Mary Beth Marrs took 6 hours to prepare the first lecture in a new course. Traditionally, she has

P
experienced a 90% learning factor. How much time should it take her to prepare the fifteenth lecture?

E.10 The first vending machine that M. D’Allessandro, Inc., assembled took 80 labor-hours. Estimate how long the
fourth machine will require for each of the following learning rates:
a) 95%
b) 87%

P
c) 72%

E.11 Kara-Smith Systems is installing networks for Advantage Insurance. The first installation took 46 labor-hours
to complete. Estimate how long the fourth and the eighth installations will take for each of the following learn-
ing rates:
a) 92%
b) 84%
c) 77%

P E.12 Baltimore Assessment Center screens and trains employees for a computer assembly firm in Towson,
Maryland. The progress of all trainees is tracked and those not showing the proper progress are moved to less
demanding programs. By the tenth repetition trainees must be able to complete the assembly task in 1 hour or
less. Torri Olson-Alves has just spent 5 hours on the fourth unit and 4 hours completing her eighth unit, while
another trainee, Julie Burgmeier, took 4 hours on the third and 3 hours on the sixth unit. Should you encourage
either or both of the trainees to continue? Why?

P E.13 The better students at Baltimore Assessment Center (see Problem E.12) have an 80% learning curve and can do
a task in 20 minutes after just six times. You would like to weed out the weak students sooner and decide to
evaluate them after the third unit. How long should the third unit take?
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782 MODULE E L E A R N I N G C U RV E S

P E.14 Collette Siever, the purchasing agent for Northeast Airlines, is interested in determining what she can expect to
pay for airplane number 4 if the third plane took 20,000 hours to produce. What would Siever expect to pay for
plane number 5? Number 6? Use an 85% learning curve and a $40-per-hour labor charge.

P E.15 Using the data from Problem E.14, how long will it take to complete the twelfth plane? The fifteenth plane?
How long will it take to complete planes 12 through 15 inclusive? At $40 per hour, what can Davis, as pur-
chasing agent, expect to pay for all 4 planes?

P E.16 Dynamic RAM Corp. produces semiconductors and has a learning curve of .7. The price per bit is 100 milli-
cents when the volume is .7 × 1012 bits. What is the expected price at 1.4 × 1012 bits? What is the expected price
at 89.6 × 1012 bits?

P E.17 Central Power owns 25 small power generating plants. It has contracted with Genco Services to overhaul the
power turbines of each of the plants. The number of hours that Genco billed Central to complete the third tur-
bine was 460. Central pays Genco $60 per hour for its services. As the maintenance manager for Central, you
are trying to estimate the cost of overhauling the fourth turbine. How much would you expect to pay for the
overhaul of number 5 and number 6? All the turbines are similar and an 80% learning curve is appropriate.

P E.18 It takes 28,718 hours to produce the eighth locomotive at a large French manufacturing firm. If the learning
factor is 80%, how long does it take to produce the tenth locomotive?

P E.19 Eric Krassow’s firm is about to bid on a new radar system. Although the product uses new technology, Krassow
believes that a learning rate of 75% is appropriate. The first unit is expected to take 700 hours, and the contract
is for 40 units.
a) What is the total amount of hours to build the 40 units?
b) What is the average time to build each of the 40 units?
c) Assume that a worker works 2,080 hours per year. How many workers should be assigned to this contract to
complete it in a year?

P E.20 As the estimator for Peter Ancona Enterprises, your job is to prepare an estimate for a potential customer service
contract. The contract is for the service of diesel locomotive cylinder heads. The shop has done some of these in
the past on a sporadic basis. The time required to service each cylinder head has been exactly 4 hours, and similar
work has been accomplished at an 85% learning curve. The customer wants you to quote in batches of 12 and 20.
a) Prepare the quote.
b) After preparing the quote, you find a labor ticket for this customer for five locomotive cylinder heads. From the
notations on the labor ticket, you conclude that the fifth unit took 2.5 hours. What do you conclude about the
learning curve and your quote?

P E.21 Sara Bredbenner and Blake DeYoung are teammates at a discount store; their new job is assembling swing sets
for customers. Assembly of a swing set has a learning rate of 90%. They forgot to time their effort on the first
swing set, but spent 4 hours on the second set. They have six more sets to do. Determine approximately how
much time will be (was) required for
a) the first unit.
b) the eighth unit.
c) all eight units.

 E.22 Kelly-Lambing, Inc., a builder of government-contracted small ships, has a steady work force of 10 very
skilled craftspeople. These workers can supply 2,500 labor-hours each per year. Kelly-Lambing is about to
undertake a new contract, building a new style of boat. The first boat is expected to take 6,000 hours to com-
plete. The firm thinks that 90% is the expected learning rate.
a) What is the firm’s “capacity” to make these boats—that is, how many units can the firm make in 1 year?
b) If the operations manager can increase the learning rate to 85% instead of 90%, how many units can the firm make?

P E.23 Fargo Production has contracted with Johnson Services to overhaul the 25 robots at its plant. All the robots are
similar and an 80% learning curve is appropriate. The number of hours that Johnson billed Fargo to complete the
third robot overhaul was 460. Fargo pays $60 per hour for its services. Fargo wants to estimate the following:
a) How many hours will it take to overhaul the 13th robot?
b) The fifteenth robot?
c) How long will it take to complete robots 10 through 15 inclusive?
d) As the person who manages the costs for overhauling all equipment, what is your estimate of the cost of the
entire contract for overhauling all 25 robots?

 E.24 You are considering building a plane for training pilots. You believe there is a market for 50 of these planes,
which will have a top speed of 400 kn and an empty weight of 10,000 lb. You will need one test plane. Use the
NASA Web site (www.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/airframe.html) to determine the total cost and engineering cost of
building all 50 planes.
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C A S E S T U DY 783

 E.25
a)
Using the accompanying log-log graph, answer the following questions:
What are the implications for management if it has forecast its cost on the optimum line?
b) What could be causing the fluctuations above the optimum line?
c) If management forecast the tenth unit on the optimum line, what was that forecast in hours?
d) If management built the tenth unit as indicated by the actual line, how many hours did it take?

500
400
300

Average labor-hours per unit 200

Optimum Actual

100
80
60

40

20

10
1 10 100 200 300 400
Total units produced

INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS

See our Companion Web site at www.prenhall.com/heizer for these additional homework problems: E.26
through E.33.

CASE STUDY
SMT’s Negotiation with IBM tools, jigs, and fixtures; 5% for quality control; and 9% for pur-
chasing burden. Then, using an 85% learning curve, he backed up
SMT and one other, much larger company were asked by IBM to bid his costs to get an estimate for the first unit. He next checked the
on 80 more units of a particular computer product. The RFQ data on hours and materials for the 25, 15, and 38 units already
(request for quote) asked that the overall bid be broken down to made and found that his estimate for the first unit was within 4% of
show the hourly rate, the parts and materials component in the price, actual cost. His check, however, had indicated a 90% learning-
and any charges for subcontracted services. SMT quoted $1.62 mil- curve effect on hours per unit.
lion and supplied the cost breakdown as requested. The second com- In the negotiations, SMT was represented by one of the two
pany submitted only one total figure, $5 million, with no cost break- owners of the business, two engineers, and one cost estimator. The
down. The decision was made to negotiate with SMT. sessions opened with a discussion of learning curves. The IBM cost
The IBM negotiating team included two purchasing managers estimator demonstrated that SMT had in fact been operating on a
and two cost engineers. One cost engineer had developed manufac- 90% learning curve. But, he argued, it should be possible to move to
turing cost estimates for every component, working from engineer- an 85% curve, given the longer runs, reduced setup time, and
ing drawings and cost-data books that he had built up from previ- increased continuity of workers on the job that would be possible
ous experience and that contained time factors, both setup and run with an order for 80 units. The owner agreed with this analysis and
times, for a large variety of operations. He estimated materials was willing to reduce his price by 4%.
costs by working both from data supplied by the IBM corporate However, as each operation in the manufacturing process was
purchasing staff and from purchasing journals. He visited SMT discussed, it became clear that some IBM cost estimates were too
facilities to see the tooling available so that he would know what low because certain crating and shipping expenses had been over-
processes were being used. He assumed that there would be perfect looked. These oversights were minor, however, and in the following
conditions and trained operators, and he developed cost estimates discussions, the two parties arrived at a common understanding of
for the 158th unit (previous orders were for 25, 15, and 38 units). specifications and reached agreements on the costs of each manufac-
He added 5% for scrap-and-flow loss; 2% for the use of temporary turing operation.
(continued)
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784 MODULE E L E A R N I N G C U RV E S
At this point, SMT representatives expressed great concern understand why SMT had quoted such a low figure. He wanted to be
about the possibility of inflation in material costs. The IBM negotia- sure that SMT was using the correct manufacturing process. In any
tors volunteered to include a form of price escalation in the contract, case, if SMT estimators had made a mistake, it should be noted. It
as previously agreed among themselves. IBM representatives sug- was IBM’s policy to seek a fair price both for itself and for its sup-
gested that if overall material costs changed by more than 10%, the pliers. IBM procurement managers believed that if a vendor was los-
price could be adjusted accordingly. However, if one party took the ing money on a job, there would be a tendency to cut corners. In
initiative to have the price revised, the other could require an analysis addition, the IBM negotiator felt that by pointing out the error, he
of all parts and materials invoices in arriving at the new price. generated some goodwill that would help in future sessions.
Another concern of the SMT representatives was that a large
amount of overtime and subcontracting would be required to meet
IBM’s specified delivery schedule. IBM negotiators thought that a Discussion Questions
relaxation in the delivery schedule might be possible if a price con- 1. What are the advantages and disadvantages to IBM and SMT
cession could be obtained. In response, the SMT team offered a 5% from this approach?
discount, and this was accepted. As a result of these negotiations, the 2. How does SMT’s proposed learning rate compare with that of
SMT price was reduced almost 20% below its original bid price. other companies?
In a subsequent meeting called to negotiate the prices of certain 3. What are the limitations of the learning curve in this case?
pipes to be used in the system, it became apparent to an IBM cost
estimator that SMT representatives had seriously underestimated Source: Adapted from E. Raymond Corey, Procurement Management: Strategy,
their costs. He pointed out this apparent error because he could not Organization, and Decision Making (New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold).

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Abernathy, W. J., and K. Wayne. “Limits of the Learning Curve.” McDonald, A., and L. Schrattenholzer. “Learning Curves and
Harvard Business Review 52 (September–October 1974): 109–119. Technology Assessment.” International Journal of Technology
Bailey, C. D. and E. N. McIntyre. “Using Parameter Prediction Management 23 (2002): 718.
Models to Forecast Post-interruption Learning.” IIE Transactions Smith, J., Learning Curve for Cost Control. Norcross, Georgia:
35 (December 2003): 1077. Industrial Engineering and Management Press, Institute of
Camm, J. “A Note on Learning Curve Parameters.” Decision Sciences Industrial Engineers. (1998).
(summer 1985): 325–327. Smunt, T. L., and C. A. Watts. “Improving Operations Planning with
Hall, G., and S. Howell. “The Experience Curve from the Economist’s Learning Curves.” Journal of Operations Management 21
Perspective.” Strategic Management Journal (July–September (January 2003): 93.
1985): 197–210. Weston, M. Learning Curves. New York: Crown Publishing (2000).
Lapré, Michael A., Amit Shankar Mukherjee, and Luk N. Van Zangwill, W. I., and P. B. Kantor. “Toward a Theory of Continuous
Wassenhove. “Behind the Learning Curve: Linking Learning Improvement and the Learning Curve.” Management Science 44,
Activities to Waste Reduction.” Management Science 46, no. 5 no. 7 (July 1998): 910–920.
(May 2000): 597–611.

INTERNET RESOURCES
Bailey, Charles (University of Central Florida): Production technology, Tampa, Florida:
www.bus.ucf.edu/bailey www.protech-ie.com/software.htm
NASA:
www.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/learn.html