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RESEARCH LETTER Multidecadal Intensification of Atlantic Tropical Instability
10.1029/2022GL101073
Waves
Key Points:
Franz Philip Tuchen1 , Renellys C. Perez1 , Gregory R. Foltz1 , Peter Brandt2,3 , and
• I n situ and satellite observations show
Rick Lumpkin1
a long-term intensification of Tropical
Instability Waves (TIWs) in the 1
NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA, 2GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean
tropical North Atlantic
• Enhanced TIW activity is mainly due Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, 3Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
to increased barotropic instability
associated with increased covariance
of velocity fluctuations Abstract Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) are the dominant source of intraseasonal variability in
• As a result, TIW-driven sea surface the central equatorial Atlantic and play an important role in the redistribution of heat in the upper ocean.
cooling north of the equator due
to eddy temperature advection has Here we use multidecadal records of sea surface temperature, sea level anomaly, sea surface salinity, and
increased by 74% from 1993 to 2021 near-surface currents constructed from in situ and satellite observations to reveal a long-term intensification
of the intraseasonal variability of these variables due to an increase of TIW activity. Enhanced barotropic
Supporting Information: energy conversion from increased covariance of horizontal current fluctuations, rather than low-frequency
Supporting Information may be found in changes of the mean zonal currents, drives the TIW intensification. As a consequence, boreal summer
the online version of this article. cooling of tropical North Atlantic surface waters through horizontal eddy temperature advection increased
by 0.03°C month −1 decade −1 during 1993–2021, a change of 74% ± 53% relative to the long-term mean. The
Correspondence to: presented multidecadal TIW trends are strongly modulated by interannual variations like the 2021 Atlantic
F. P. Tuchen, Niño.
franz.philip.tuchen@noaa.gov;
fptuchen@gmx.de
Plain Language Summary In the equatorial Atlantic, temperature, salinity, sea level anomaly, and
ocean velocity variations on time scales of tens of days are dominated by the presence and westward passage
Citation:
of large-scale Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs). Several decades of satellite and surface drifter data as well
Tuchen, F. P., Perez, R. C., Foltz, G.
R., Brandt, P., & Lumpkin, R. (2022). as moored velocity observations show a long-term intensification of TIW activity in all of these variables in
Multidecadal intensification of Atlantic the tropical North Atlantic where TIWs are most pronounced. We find that increased high-frequency flow
tropical instability Waves. Geophysical variability, and not long-term changes of the mean zonal current system, drives the TIW intensification. One
Research Letters, 49, e2022GL101073.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101073 consequence of increased Atlantic Ocean TIW activity is the corresponding intensification of the horizontal
eddy temperature advection pattern in boreal summer leading to stronger cooling of surface waters north
Received 1 SEP 2022 of the equator. This equates to an increase in TIW-driven sea surface temperature cooling of 74% ± 53% in
Accepted 4 NOV 2022 the tropical North Atlantic during the last 3 decades. The presented multidecadal TIW trends are strongly
modulated by interannual variations such as the 2021 Atlantic Niño. We further explore potential large-scale
drivers of the TIW intensification, including changes in high-frequency wind variability.
1. Introduction
The upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Atlantic is characterized by energetic zonal currents that facilitate
a large cross-basin volume exchange and transformation of water masses (e.g., Brandt et al., 2006; Lumpkin &
Garzoli, 2005; Tuchen, Brandt, Lübbecke, & Hummels, 2022). Near the equator, the lateral and vertical shear
of the zonal currents generates barotropic and baroclinic instability that supply eddy kinetic energy for the
formation of Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) (de Decco et al., 2018; Jochum et al., 2004; Masina et al., 1999;
von Schuckmann et al.; 2008; Weisberg & Weingartner, 1988). TIWs are observable as quasi-monthly,
westward-propagating anomalies of key ocean variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface
salinity (SSS), sea level, and currents (Athié & Marin, 2008; Bunge et al., 2007; Foltz et al., 2004; Grodsky
et al.; 2005; Olivier et al., 2020; Perez et al., 2019; Tuchen et al., 2018).
TIWs redistribute heat and freshwater through advection and mixing (Foltz et al., 2020; Hummels et al., 2013;
Inoue et al., 2019; Jochum & Murtugudde, 2006; Jochum et al., 2007; Kennan & Flament, 2000; Moum et al., 2009;
Wenegrat & McPhaden, 2015) and affect the biogeochemistry of the equatorial upper ocean by influencing chlo-
rophyll concentration (Grodsky et al., 2008; Menkes et al., 2002; Sherman et al., 2022; Shi & Wang, 2021),
© 2022. American Geophysical Union. dissolved oxygen variability (Eddebbar et al., 2021), and nitrate distributions (Radenac et al., 2020). Through
All Rights Reserved. their impact on SST, TIWs also feed back onto the large-scale atmospheric circulation (Caltabiano et al., 2005;
TUCHEN ET AL. 1 of 11
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Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2022GL101073
Seo & Xie, 2011; Seo et al., 2007; Wu & Bowman, 2007b). More recently, TIWs and intraseasonal waves excited
by TIWs have been identified as an important component and maintenance mechanism of the deep equatorial
Atlantic circulation (Ascani et al., 2010, 2015; Bastin et al., 2020; Greatbatch et al., 2018; Körner et al., 2022;
Tuchen et al., 2018).
Although the seasonality of Atlantic TIW activity is well documented (Grodsky et al., 2005; Heukamp et al., 2022;
Olivier et al., 2020; Perez et al., 2012; Specht et al., 2021; Tuchen et al., 2018), considerably less is known
about interannual to decadal variability and long-term trends of TIWs and the associated variability of physical
and biogeochemical properties. Previous studies identified significant year-to-year variability of TIWs (Athié &
Marin, 2008; Caltabiano et al., 2005; Olivier et al., 2020; Perez et al., 2012; Wu & Bowman, 2007a) and suggested
the coupled Atlantic zonal mode and changes in the barotropic energy conversion as possible sources for the
observed interannual fluctuations (Perez et al., 2012; Wu & Bowman, 2007a). Jochum and Murtugudde (2004)
showed that internal variability can be an important driver of interannual TIW variability. Beyond interannual
time scales, even less is known about TIW variability and trends on decadal to multidecadal time scales. Recent
studies suggest that upper-ocean currents at low latitudes in the Pacific and Atlantic have experienced a global
warming-induced intensification that is discernible in enhanced mean kinetic energy (Hu et al., 2020; Peng
et al., 2022; Wunsch, 2020). Moored velocity observations in the central equatorial Atlantic seem to support
these findings by showing a substantial increase of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and the westward surface
current above the EUC between 2008 and 2018 (Brandt et al., 2021). However, this recent intensification of the
Atlantic EUC has been attributed mainly to decadal-multidecadal variability of the wind-driven shallow over-
turning circulation (Tuchen et al., 2020) rather than being a response to global warming. One expected conse-
quence of a spin-up of the equatorial zonal current system is an increase in meridional and vertical shear of the
zonal currents, potentially leading to intensified barotropic and baroclinic energy conversion, respectively, from
the mean flow to high-frequency velocity (i.e., eddy) variability. Decadal changes in Atlantic TIW activity, and
possible connections to the global ocean circulation spin-up, have not yet been examined. This study identifies
long-term trends of Atlantic TIW activity in SST, sea level anomaly (SLA), velocity, and SSS, investigates their
potential causes, and highlights the effect of the observed long-term TIW intensification on TIW-induced hori-
zontal eddy temperature advection (ETA) in the tropical North Atlantic.
2. Data and Methods

Multidecadal gridded (satellite, reanalysis winds, blended satellite-in situ) and mooring records are used in this
study. All gridded data are available at daily and 0.25° horizontal resolution. SST from the NOAA Optimally
Interpolated SST data set (OI-SST version 2.1) is available since September 1981 (Huang et al., 2021). SLA data
are provided by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service since January 1993 (version vDT2021).
To obtain homogeneous data coverage, a two-satellite constellation is used in vDT2021. SSS data are provided
by the European Space Agency Sea Surface Salinity Climate Change Initiative (ESA-SSS-CCI version 3.21)
between January 2010 and September 2020 (Boutin et al., 2021). For the purpose of this study only full-year data
of SST (1982–2021) and SLA (1993–2021) are used. Because of the more limited observational period of SSS,
the available record between 2010 and 2020 is included in the analysis, but we focus mainly on SST and SLA. It is
important to note that only the surface signatures of TIWs can be inferred from satellite observations. The surface
patterns differ from those in the subsurface (Perez et al., 2019; Specht et al., 2021; Wenegrat & McPhaden, 2015),
likely due to the baroclinicity of the mean zonal flow: the surface mean flow is dominated by the North Equatorial
Counter Current (NECC) and the northern and central branches of the South Equatorial Current (nSEC/cSEC),
while the equatorial thermocline is dominated by the EUC.
Estimates of the near-surface circulation at an approximate depth of 15 m are available from a synthesis prod-
uct of surface drifting buoy velocities, satellite-derived Ekman velocities, and geostrophic velocities from the
SLA product described above (Lumpkin & Garzoli, 2011). The most recent version of the drifter-wind-altimetry
synthesis covers the time period from 1993 to 2021 and provides daily horizontal current velocities at 0.25° hori-
zontal resolution (Perez et al., 2019). A more detailed description, validation and uncertainty assessment of this
synthesis is provided in the Supporting Information S1.
Moored velocity data have been collected at 0°, 23°W since 2001 and at 4°N, 23°W since 2005 as part of the trop-
ical Atlantic observing system (Foltz et al., 2019) and the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical
Atlantic (PIRATA; Bourlès et al., 2019). Moored velocity observations provide an important subsurface view of
TIW variability and trends. A detailed description of the individual measurements and their combination into
one uniform data set at 0°, 23°W is provided by Tuchen, Brandt, Hahn, et al. (2022). Here we mainly investigate
continuous subsurface (20–100 m) velocities available between March 2008 and October 2019. We focus on the
meridional component of velocity (v) because there tend to be larger meridional velocity fluctuations at and north
of the equator than zonal velocity (u) fluctuations (Perez et al., 2019; Tuchen et al., 2018).
To identify and quantify TIW activity, first all data are temporally band-pass filtered (20–50 day Hamming
window). In a second step, those data sets that exhibit spatial dimensions are zonally band-pass filtered (4°–20°)
following established Atlantic TIW methodology (Lee et al., 2014; Olivier et al., 2020; Perez et al., 2012). Then,
for a filtered time series x′, the monthly standard deviation σ(x′) is calculated and the resulting monthly standard
deviation time series will be used as a proxy for TIW activity/variability in the subsequent statistical analysis.
In the following, long-term averages are denoted by an overbar and seasonal averages are denoted by subscripts
indicating the incorporated months. For instance, 𝜎𝜎 SST′ JJA describes the mean intraseasonal (temporally and
( )
𝐴𝐴
spatially band-pass filtered) standard deviation of SST, created by averaging the monthly standard deviations
from June, July, and August either at a grid point or spatially averaged within a specific region. Throughout this
study, error estimates are based on a linear regression analysis with 95% confidence intervals (Brandt et al., 2021),
assuming each monthly standard deviation represents one degree of freedom.
3. Results
3.1. Spatio-Temporal Mean of TIW Activity
First, we identify the long-term mean spatial and temporal distributions of intraseasonal variability associated
with TIWs, which we will then use in the next section to determine temporal changes of the mean variability
patterns over the individual observational periods. In agreement with previous studies (Athié & Marin, 2008;
Perez et al., 2012), σ(SST′) shows maximum values at 0°–5°N between 30°–10°W (Figure 1a), while σ(SLA′)
peaks further north between 3°N–7°N (Figure 1c). σ(SLA′) is co-located with σ(v′) as obtained from the
drifter-wind-altimetry synthesis (Figures 1c and 1e), in which, however, equatorial v′ is underrepresented (Figure
S1 in Supporting Information S1). TIW-associated variability is spatially separable from other processes with
similar time scales, such as high σ(SLA′) and σ(v′) within the North Brazil Current retroflection area. Modest
TIW-induced variability is also observed south of the equator, in agreement with previous findings (Athié &
Marin, 2008; Perez et al., 2012; Yu et al., 1995). Here we focus on changes in the region of highest variability
north of the equator. Within this region, the seasonal cycle and the months with highest intraseasonal variability
are identified: σ(SST′) peaks in July (Figure 1b), while σ(v′) and σ(SLA′) show matching spatial and temporal
patterns north of the equator, with a maximum in July and second largest value in June (Figures 1d and 1f). This
indicates that σ(v′) and σ(SLA′) precede σ(SST′). Although the satellite SSS record is considerably shorter,
there is also a clear signature of TIWs with peak σ(SSS′) variability north of the equator that is strongest in June
(Figures S2a and S2b in Supporting Information S1), consistent with previous findings (Lee et al., 2014; Olivier
et al., 2020).
To obtain a subsurface view of TIW activity, we examine the 0°, 23°W moored velocity observations. The
20–50 m average of mean intraseasonal meridional velocity variability shows an annual peak during July–
September (Figures S3a and S3b in Supporting Information S1) that lags the June/July peak in near-surface
meridional velocity variability north of the equator (Figure 1f). The NECC/nSEC and nSEC/EUC regions are
two separate generation sites for TIWs (von Schuckmann et al., 2008), which partly explains the difference in
these timings.
3.2. Long-Term Trends of TIW Activity
Long-term trends of monthly standard deviations of SST′, SLA′, and v′ are calculated at each grid point for
their respective time periods and reported in terms of unit change per decade (Figure 2). Increasing variability
is observed for all variables over the observational period in the previously identified regions of highest mean
variability (Figures 2a, 2d and 2g). The spatial patterns of the trends largely align with the climatological patterns
(Figures 1a, 1c and 1e) and reveal long-term intensification of intraseasonal variability. The TIW intensification
generally occurs during the climatological peak months, especially for σ(SST′) and σ(SSS′) (Figure 2b; Figure
S2d in Supporting Information S1). Interestingly, σ(SSS′) exhibits a strong positive trend between 2010 and
Figure 1. Long-term mean of intraseasonal variability for oceanic sea surface variables associated with Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs). Standard deviation (σ) of
band-pass filtered (a, b) sea surface temperature (SST′), (c, d) sea level anomaly (SLA′), (e, f) meridional velocity (v′). Left panels: Mean of the monthly σ averaged
over June to August (JJA) during peak TIW season indicated by the turquoise shaded box in the right panels. Right panels: Spatial averages of monthly σ in the boxes
and for the multidecadal time period indicated in the left panels.
Figure 2. Long-term linear trends of the standard deviation of band-pass filtered (a–c) sea surface temperature (SST′), (d–f) sea level anomaly (SLA′), and (g–i)
meridional velocity (v′) in units per decade. In the left panels, significant trends are indicated by gray dots and one background Tropical Instability Wave (TIW)
variability isoline from Figure 1 is shown (black lines: 0.2°C, 1.5 cm, 5 cm s −1). Monthly TIW activity trends in the middle panels are spatially averaged over the boxes
indicated in the left panels. The time series in the right panels show the yearly composite values averaged over the boxes in the left panels and the months shaded in
turquoise in the middle panels. Solid thin lines indicate the 95% confidence band.
2020 during all months (Figures S2d and S2e in Supporting Information S1), but the relatively short observa-
tional record of σ(SSS′) is likely obscured by interannual to decadal variability. σ(SLA′) shows a tendency for a
temporal shift toward a 1-month earlier onset of TIW activity (Figure 2e) that is also observed in moored velocity
observations on the equator (Figure S3c in Supporting Information S1). The overall trends reveal intensifica-
tion of TIW activity with respect to the long-term mean: σ(SST′) intensified by 43% ± 19% during 1982–2021
(Figures 2a–2c), σ(SLA′) increased by 26% ± 30% during 1993–2021 (Figures 2d–2f), while σ(v′) shows only a
weak intensification of 4% ± 33% during 1993–2021 east of 20°W (Figures 2g–2i). The trends are larger when
the strong Atlantic Niño year of 2021 is excluded: 48% ± 18%, 35% ± 28%, and 17% ± 29% for σ(SST′), σ(SLA′),
and σ(v′) respectively.
Below the surface, σ(v′) at 0°, 23°W increased from 2008 to 2018 during May, June and especially July (Figure
S3c in Supporting Information S1). Thus, there is a shift of the July–September subsurface TIW peak toward an
earlier onset of the TIW season that is consistent with the near-surface temporal shift north of the equator from
the drifter-wind-altimetry synthesis analysis (Figure 2h). Considering that the agreement between near-surface
velocities from the drifter-wind-altimetry synthesis and moored velocities is best at 4°N, 23°W (Figure S1 in
Supporting Information S1), where σ(SST′) amplitudes are larger, we have more confidence in the σ(v′) trends
between 3°N and 7°N and focus the remainder of our analysis on that region.
3.3. Changes in Barotropic Energy Conversion
Next, the mechanism driving the observed intensification of TIW activity north of the equator is investigated.
As previously mentioned, TIWs are generated by barotropic and/or baroclinic instability. From observations
presented in this study, only the barotropic energy conversion can be derived because the baroclinic energy
conversion term requires knowledge of vertical velocity and density variability at temporal and spatial resolutions
that are not available from observational records. Model simulations showed that barotropic energy conversion
exceeds baroclinic energy conversion near the surface and between 30°W and 10°W, and thus we are analyzing
a key source of TIW energy in the region (Jochum et al., 2004; von Schuckmann et al., 2008). The barotropic
energy conversion term can be expressed 𝐴𝐴 as 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 = −𝜌𝜌0 ⋅ 𝑢𝑢′ 𝑣𝑣′ ⋅ 𝑑𝑑𝑈𝑈 ∕𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 (Masina et al., 1999), with a reference
density ρ0 = 1024 kg m −3, primes indicating 20–50 day band-pass filtered velocities, 𝐴𝐴 and 𝑈𝑈 the zonal background
flow (50 day low-pass filtered zonal velocity). Here we use velocities from the drifter-wind-altimetry synthesis
to reconstruct the near-surface barotropic energy conversion (Figure 3).
Maximum
𝐴𝐴 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 is observed in June/July in the region of high meridional shear of zonal velocity between the
westward nSEC and the eastward NECC, approximately 2°–5°N (Figure 3a). In contrast to von Schuckmann
et al. (2008), the drifter-wind-altimetry synthesis does not resolve another band of enhanced barotropic energy
conversion close to the equator, though its existence is implied by moored velocity observations 𝐴𝐴 of 𝐴𝐴′ 𝑣𝑣′ (Figure
S4 in Supporting Information 𝐴𝐴 S1). 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 intensified by 65% ± 92% during 1993–2021 in the tropical North Atlantic
(Figures 3b–3d) during May-June. An intensification of the eddy𝐴𝐴term 𝑢𝑢′ 𝑣𝑣′ in May-June has driven the overall
increase in barotropic energy conversion (red squares in Figure 3c), while changes
𝐴𝐴 of 𝐴𝐴𝑈𝑈 ∕𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 are marginal (blue
curve in Figure 3c). This is unexpected in light of recent findings on the long-term acceleration of tropical zonal
currents.
One possible mechanism for increased high-frequency current fluctuations is enhanced energy input by
high-frequency wind stress variability. Meridional wind stress variability at TIW time scales shows a large-scale
intensification over the tropical Atlantic during the last four decades that is significant from May to September
(Figure S5 in Supporting Information S1). Although the intensification of wind stress variability appears more
widespread than the distinct spatio-temporal pattern of TIW variability, increased wind stress variability could
fuel stronger TIW activity through the eddy term in regions and months during which TIWs develop regularly.
However, this proposed mechanism deserves further attention.
3.4. Changes in Horizontal Eddy Temperature Advection
We next investigate the impact of intensified TIW activity in the equatorial Atlantic on TIW-induced horizontal
ETA∶ −(𝑢′ 𝑑𝑇 ′ ∕𝑑𝑥 + 𝑣′ 𝑑𝑇 ′ ∕𝑑𝑦), which is a key contributor to the SST budget in the region (Peter et al., 2006).
Figure 3. Near-surface (15 m) barotropic energy conversion

𝐴𝐴 (𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 = −𝜌𝜌0 ⋅ 𝑢𝑢′ 𝑣𝑣′ ⋅ 𝑑𝑑𝑈𝑈 ∕ 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 ) in the tropical Atlantic. (a)𝐴𝐴Mean 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 between 1993 and 2021 during the
seasonal maximum in June/July. Positive values indicate conversion of mean kinetic energy into eddy kinetic energy, that is, intraseasonal fluctuations. (b) Trend 𝐴𝐴 of 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵
during May/June and 5 × 10 −6 kg m −1 s −3 isoline from (a) (black line). (c) Monthly trends 𝐴𝐴 of 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 (black),
𝐴𝐴 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 with constant
𝐴𝐴 𝑢𝑢′ 𝑣𝑣′ (blue),
𝐴𝐴 and 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 with constant
𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴𝑈𝑈 ∕𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
(red) spatially averaged over the box indicated in (a). (d) Time series
𝐴𝐴 of 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 during May/June spatially averaged over the box indicated in (a). Solid thin lines indicate
the 95% confidence band.
Here we combine near-surface velocities and satellite SST data, which is reasonable as we find good agreement
between near-surface and surface velocities north of the equator (Table S1 in Supporting Information S1).
In the mean, TIWs reduce the meridional SST gradient near the equator during boreal summer, when the cold
tongue reaches its maximum zonal extent (Jochum et al., 2007). TIWs advect colder equatorial surface waters
northward and warmer off-equatorial surface waters equatorward (Foltz et al., 2003; Hummels et al., 2014), acting
to cool the tropical North Atlantic and warm the equatorial cold tongue region. This redistribution of heat is most
pronounced during June/July, with average cooling/warming rates of about 0.15°C month −1 (Figure 4a). Positive
zonal ETA, meaning warming, occurs in the boundary region between positive and negative meridional ETA
(Figure S6a in Supporting Information S1). Zonal ETA therefore supports sea surface warming close to the equa-
tor while partially but not entirely compensating sea surface cooling north of the equator caused by meridional
ETA. From 1993 to 2021, this mean pattern of horizontal ETA significantly intensified (Figure 4b and 4c; Figures
S6c–S6h in Supporting Information S1), leading to enhanced cooling of surface waters north of the equator of
0.03°C month −1 decade −1 and enhanced warming close to the equator of 0.02°C month −1 decade −1. From 1993 to
2021, a 74% ± 53% increase of advective cooling north of the equator and an 85% ± 70% increase of advective
warming within the cold tongue region with respect to the long-term means is observed (Figure 4d). These trends
are consistent with the observed long-term intensification of TIW activity over the same period (Figures 2a–2c).
Separating the ETA trends into contributions from intraseasonal velocity fluctuations and horizontal temperature
gradients shows that the overall trend in ETA is driven by changes in velocities, while the temperature gradi-
ents have not changed significantly (not shown). ETA mean estimates using moored near-surface velocities at
4°N, 23°W and 0°, 23°W confirm the cooling/warming signature, but suggest an underestimation of the mean
ETA pattern by the drifter-wind-altimetry product by a factor of two at 4°N and a factor of four on the equator
(Figure 4a).
4. Summary and Discussion

In this study, a multidecadal intensification of TIW activity in the tropical North Atlantic is identified using
essential sea surface variables. All analyzed variables (SST, SLA, SSS, surface and subsurface current velocities)
agree on a long-term trend toward more intense TIW activity during boreal summer, along with a less pronounced
temporal shift to an earlier onset of the TIW peak season by 1 month. For all variables, the multidecadal trends
were weakened by the inclusion of data in 2021, which was an anomalously strong Atlantic Niño year charac-
terized by weak summertime TIWs (Figure 2). The intensification of TIW activity is attributed to an increase
in barotropic energy conversion that is linked to increased covariance of intraseasonal zonal and meridional
velocity fluctuations and not to an enhanced meridional gradient of the zonal background flow (Figure 3). The
recently reported acceleration of the tropical zonal current system seems not to have impacted zonal current shear.
However, it is possible that currents that are close to being unstable supply high-frequency velocity fluctuations
when being accelerated, resulting in very little change in the meridional shear of zonal velocity. In addition,
here only the near-surface signature of TIW-driven variability is assessed, while the temporal evolution of the
observed barotropic energy conversion as a function of depth remains a challenge and needs to be investigated in
ocean models. The observational records do not allow for the estimation of baroclinic energy conversion. There
are indications that baroclinic energy conversion is considerably weaker than barotropic energy conversion in the
near-surface layer on seasonal time scales (Jochum et al., 2004; von Schuckmann et al., 2008), but it is not clear
whether this mechanism plays a more important role on decadal time scales. The increased TIW activity reported
here from satellite records is only representative of the TIWs' surface signature and is confined to the region north
of the equator. Moored velocity observations have shown that TIW energy extends to depths of about 70–90 m
(Heukamp et al., 2022).
A comparison of moored velocities to those from the drifter-wind-altimetry synthesis (Supporting Informa-
tion S1) shows that the synthesis is suitable to analyze TIW-induced variability and trends north of the equator,
where we also observe the strongest signals in the mean and trends of σ(SST′) and σ(SSS′) (Figure 1; Figure
S2 in Supporting Information S1). Velocities from near-surface data and moored observations are weakly but
positively correlated on the equator (Table S1 in Supporting Information S1). Meridional velocity trends from
the drifter-wind-altimetry synthesis near the equator are weak and less pronounced compared to 4°N. However, at
0°, 23°W, we note a positive trend in σ(v′) in moored observations during 2008–2018 (Figure S3c in Supporting
Figure 4. Near-surface (15 m) horizontal eddy temperature advection (ETA)∶ −(𝑢′ 𝑑𝑇 ′ ∕𝑑𝑥 + 𝑣′ 𝑑𝑇 ′ ∕𝑑𝑦) in the tropical Atlantic due to Tropical Instability Waves. (a)
Mean horizontal ETA between 1993 and 2021 averaged for June/July. Positive values indicate warming, negative values indicate cooling. Also shown in (a) is the mean
horizontal ETA using 10 m velocities from moored observations at 4°N, 23°W and 0°, 23°W. (b) Trend of horizontal ETA for June/July and ±0.1°C month −1 isoline
from (a) (black lines). (c) Monthly trends of horizontal ETA in the north equatorial (NE) box and the equatorial (EQ) box indicated in (a). (d) Time series of horizontal
ETA during June/July spatially averaged over the NE (black) and EQ box (green). Solid thin lines indicate the 95% confidence band.
Information S1). This underpins the necessity of sustained in situ measurements and satellite missions focusing
on surface currents (Ardhuin et al., 2019; Rodríguez et al., 2019).
The observed enhanced barotropic energy conversion north of the equator is hypothesized to be related to
increased high-frequency wind stress variability. von Schuckmann et al. (2008) showed that forcing an ocean
model with daily wind stress forcing noticeably increased TIW activity compared to climatological wind forcing.
Athié et al. (2009) confirmed the sensitivity of TIW activity to the choice of wind forcing, but noticed that overly
energetic wind forcing might rather decrease TIW amplitudes. The observed increase in high-frequency wind
stress variability could potentially ignite stronger TIWs through the eddy term of the barotropic energy conver-
sion, but this hypothesis requires further attention in future research.
The expected consequences of the reported TIW intensification depend on the magnitudes of the changes in
the SST budget terms, which influence, for instance, biomass production and large-scale wind patterns. The
TIW-driven effects on the SST budget are, however, complex (Jochum & Murtugudde, 2006; Menkes et al., 2006).
Aside from the observed increase in horizontal ETA (Figure 4), intensified TIWs are expected to cause stronger
subsurface mixing and intensified sea surface cooling (Moum et al., 2009). However, the net effect of TIWs
on the SST budget, and specifically the interplay of advection and vertical mixing due to TIWs, is still an open
question (Moum et al., 2022).
This study serves as a first report on the observed long-term intensification of TIWs in the tropical North Atlan-
tic. In particular, the net effect of intensified TIWs on the regional heat budget, and the distribution and variabil-
ity of biogeochemical variables, require further studies with forced ocean models and coupled climate models.
Whether the observed trends are externally forced by global warming or internally driven must also be addressed
by model experiments and analysis of output from high-resolution (HighResMIP; Haarsma et al., 2016) models.
It will be crucial to maintain in situ observing systems and to expand existing satellite missions in order to moni-
tor and diagnose future changes of tropical Atlantic variability and to provide longer time series to disentangle
warming-induced trends from interannual to multidecadal variability.
Data Availability Statement

Satellite observations used in this study are freely available at the following links: NOAA OI-SST version 2.1
(https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html), ESA-SSS-CCI version 3.21 (https://data.
ceda.ac.uk/neodc/esacci/sea_surface_salinity/data/v03.21/7days), CMEMS-C3S-SLA version DT2021 (https://
Acknowledgments cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/satellite-sea-level-global?tab=form). ECMWF ERA5 hourly 10-m
This research was performed while horizontal wind speed is provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/
F.P.T. held a National Research Council
(NRC) Research Associateship Award
cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=form). ERA-interim daily 10-m horizontal wind speed
at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and is provided by ECMWF (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim). The
Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). near-surface drifter-wind-altimetry synthesis can be accessed via: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/pub/lumpkin/
R.C.P., G.R.F., and R.L. were supported
by NOAA's Global Ocean Monitoring and
decomp/. Moored velocity observations at 0°, 23°W are provided through the World Data Center PANGAEA
Observing Program (funding reference (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.941042). Current velocity data obtained by moored surface buoys
number 100007298), under the PIRATA at 4°N, 23°W and at 0°, 23°W are made available through the PIRATA program (https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/
Northeast Extension project and Global
Drifter Program, and by AOML. P.B.
tao/drupal/disdel/). Surface velocities from the Ocean Surface Current Analyses Real-time (OSCAR) project are
acknowledges support by the TRIATLAS provided via the Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PODAAC): https://podaac-tools.jpl.
project, which has received funding from nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/oscar/preview/L4/oscar_third_deg. MATLAB codes used to produce the results are
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
available through zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7244863.
under Grant agreement 817578. We thank
Matthieu Le Hénaff and two reviewers for
insightful comments on the manuscript. References
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2. Data and Methods

3.2. Long-Term Trends of TIW Activity

3.3. Changes in Barotropic Energy Conversion

3.4. Changes in Horizontal Eddy Temperature Advection

Figure 3. Near-surface (15 m) barotropic energy conversion

4. Summary and Discussion

Data Availability Statement

References From the Supporting Information

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