Chapter 6

Flood Hydrology

Prepared By: Er. Sujan Pudasaini (Kathford International College

of Engineering and Management)
Some information's:
• An unusually high stage in a river, normally level at which river
overflows its banks and inundates the adjoining area is flood.
• Caused by natural phenomena but may be increased by human
intervention.

Prepared By: Er. Sujan Pudasaini (Kathford International College

of Engineering and Management)
 Causes of flood
Natural Human Intervention
Continuous rainfall & cloudbrust Land-use changes. Eg Deforestration, urbanization
Landslides, dam outbrust Drainage congestion caused by uncoordinated development activities
Glacier lake outbrust (GLOF) Structural failure, eg. Dam, embankment failure.
Sea Storm
Earthquake in sea (tsunami)

Effects of flood Classification of flood depending upon magnitude

1. Loss of life a. Ordinary flood: flood that are sure to be equaled in
2. Loss of property magnitude once or more times in the estimated life
3. Destruction of physical infrastructure of the project.
4. Disruption of social and economic development b. Frequency based flood (FBF): design flood
5. Damage to agriculture estimated using flood frequencies analysis.
6. Damage to hydraulic structures such as bridge, c. Standard Project Flood (SPF): flood that is likely to
embankment be exceeded in magnitude only at rare occasion.
7. Damage to reservoirs and dams. 40% to 60% of probable maximum flood (PMF)
d. Probable Maximum Flood (PMF): flood that might
occur under the worst meteorological and
hydrological conditions.

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of Engineering and Management)
6.1 Design Flood and its frequency
Design Flood:
• Flood used for design of a structure on consideration of its safety, economy, life expectancy and probable
damage consideration is design flood.
Frequency:
• Reoccurrence interval of design flood or flood with greater magnitude than design flood is frequency.
• Also known as Return Period and denoted by ‘T’.
• If the probability of occurrence of an event of a random variable (e.g. Design flood) whose magnitude is
equal to or in excess of a specified magnitude, ‘X’ is denoted by P. Then return period is defined as
1 n 1
T 
P m
n = number of years on record.
m = Number of recorded occurrence of event being considered.
• This represents average interval between occurrence of a rainfall of magnitude equal to or greater than X.
Necessity of Flood Estimation:
• In design of hydraulic structures such as dam, bridge etc.
• In planning of flood protection works.
• To minimize loss of life & property by giving suitable flood warning.
Prepared By: Er. Sujan Pudasaini (Kathford International College
of Engineering and Management)
6.3 Flood Prediction by Rational & Empirical Methods (Ungauged Basin)
Rational Method:
• Applicable for small basin (< 50 Km2 )
• If a rainfall of intensity ‘i’ begins instantaneously and continues
indefinitely, the rate of runoff will increase until the time of
concentration (tc ), when all of the basin is contributing to flow at
the outlet.
• After tc runoff becomes constant for the period of rainfall excess (t
– tc ).
• After cessation of rain, the runoff recedes gradually to become
zero at time tc from end of peak.
• The peak value of runoff is given by
Qp = CAi; for t  tc …………………….. (1)
Fig: Runoff Hydrograph due to Uniform
Rainfall
Where
C = coefficient of runoff = Runoff/rainfall If A is in hectares (ha), i in mm/hr, then
A = area of catchment Q in m3/s is
i = intensity of rainfall i CiA
Q p  CIA  C * * A *104 
This is basic equation of Rational Method. 1000*3600 360
With SI unit (Computing Q in m3/s, given i in mm/hr and A in Km2 )
i CiA
Q p  CiA  C * * A *106   0.278CiA
1000*3600 3.6
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Equation (1) is expressed for field applications as,

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of Engineering and Management)
 Or

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of Engineering and Management)
• The rational formula is found to be suitable for peak-flow prediction in small catchments upto 50 Km2 in area.
• It finds considerable application in urban drainage designs and in design of small culverts and bridges.

Limitations:
1. Applicable to small basins up to 50 Km2 .
2. Duration of rainfall intensity > tc
3. Gives only peak, does not give complete hydrograph
4. C assumed to be same for all storms
5. Rainfall intensity must be constant over entire basin during tc .

Prepared By: Er. Sujan Pudasaini (Kathford International College

of Engineering and Management)
Empirical Methods
• Empirical formulae used for estimation of flood peak are essentially regional formulae based on statistical
correlation of observed peak and important catchment properties.
• Qp = f(A); Qp = peak discharge & A = Area.

Prepared By: Er. Sujan Pudasaini (Kathford International College

of Engineering and Management)
Empirical Methods
• Empirical formulae used for estimation of flood peak are essentially regional formulae based on statistical
correlation of observed peak and important catchment properties.
• Qp = f(A); Qp = peak discharge & A = Area.
WECS Formula
In Nepalese context, Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS) developed empirical relationships for
analyzing flood of different frequencies.
Formula for 2 year return period is
Q2 = 1.8767(A3000 + 1)0.8783
Formula for 100 year return period is
Q100 = 14.63(A3000 + 1)0.7342 Value of T and S
Where T (years) S
A3000 = Basin area (Km2 ) below 3000m elevation 2 0
For other return period,
5 0.842
QT = exp(ln Q2 + S σ)
Where 10 1.282
QT = Flood of T year return period (m^3/s) 25 1.645
S = Std. normal variate
σ = parameter computed as 50 2.054
σ = ln(Q100 / Q2 )/2.326 100 2.326

Prepared By: Er. Sujan Pudasaini (Kathford International College

of Engineering and Management)
6.2 Statistical methods of flood prediction
6.2.1 Continuous Probability Distribution:
Basic Terms:
• Population
• Sample
• Variable (X)
• Variate (x)
• Random Variables-Discrete and Continuous

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of Engineering and Management)
6.2 Statistical methods of flood prediction
6.2.2 Return Period, Frequency & Risk:
Return Period:
• Average interval of time T within which an event of given magnitude
will be equaled or exceeded at least once.
• In Hydrology, it is average interval between occurrence of flood equal
to or greater than a given magnitude.

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of Engineering and Management)
Formulae:
1. Probability of an event (P) with return period T is given by
(Probability of occurrence in any year) P  1
T
2. Probability of not occurrence of event = 1  P  1  T1
3. Probability of not occurrence in n years = (P )  (1  P)  (1  T1 ) n
n n

4. Probability of occurrence of event at least once in n year

1 n
= 1  Pn  1  (1  )
T
Risk:
Probability of occurrence of event (x≥ xT ) at least over a period of n
successive years is called risk (R). R represents probability of failure of a
1
structure. R  1  (1  )
n

T
Reliability (Re )= 1 – R
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Q.1

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of Engineering and Management)
Q.2 Compute the probability of 10-year flood occurring at least once in the next 5 years.
Solution:

Q.3 Compute the probability that a flood of magnitude equal to or greater than the 20-year flood will not
occur in next 20 years.

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of Engineering and Management)
Q.4

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6.2.3 Plotting positions, frequency factors

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6.2.3 Plotting positions, frequency factors

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of Engineering and Management)
6.2.3 Plotting positions, frequency factors

This equation is known as General Equation of Hydrologic Frequency Analysis & is given by Chow (1951)

Prepared By: Er. Sujan Pudasaini (Kathford International College

of Engineering and Management)
6.2.4 Log Pearson-III Method
• Extensively used in USA for frequency analysis of annual maximum floods.
• In this method, variate is first transferred into logarithmic form base 10.
Steps:
1. First transform all of X values i.e. variate of random hydrologic series into logarithmic form (base 10).
Z = log X
2. For this Z series, recurrence interval T is given by

3. Obtain variation of KZ = f(Cs , T) from table.

4. After finding ZT , find xT as

xT = antilog(ZT)

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of Engineering and Management)
Prepared By: Er. Sujan Pudasaini (Kathford International College
of Engineering and Management)
Example

Q. 5

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 Peak
Year Discharge Z = log X (Z - meanZ)^2 (Z - meanZ)^3
(X)
1990 1400 3.146128036 0.074003745 -0.020131704
1991 4160 3.619093331 0.040372464 0.008111999
1992 2580 3.411619706 4.28321E-05 -2.8032E-07
1993 2910 3.463892989 0.00209111 9.56237E-05
1994 2250 3.352182518 0.004353599 -0.000287258
1995 1360 3.133538908 0.08101163 -0.023057969
1996 2280 3.357934847 0.003627591 -0.000218488
1997 2540 3.404833717 0.000177705 -2.36892E-06
1998 3900 3.591064607 0.029894506 0.005168768
1999 3420 3.534026106 0.013423951 0.001555323
2000 6170 3.790285164 0.138473916 0.051529029
2001 2160 3.334453751 0.007007461 -0.000586599 As T = 50 yrs
2002 1360 3.133538908 0.08101163 -0.023057969 KT for Cs = 0.0635 & T = 50 years given as
2003 5440 3.7355989 0.100764707 0.031986201 By interpolation KT = 2.08766
2004 1340 3.127104798 0.08471565 -0.024657297 Z50 =
2005 3360 3.526339277 0.011701819 0.001265844 = 3.4182 + 2.08766*0.2051 = 3.8464
2006 2800 3.447158031 0.000840635 2.43731E-05 Then,
58.10879359 0.673514952 0.007737226 X50 = antilog (Z50 ) = 7021.02 m3/s
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6.2.5 Gumbel’s Extreme Value Type-I Method

………….. i
………….. vii
………….. ii
………….. viii

………….. iii Eq.vii is of same form as general equation of

hydrologic- frequency analysis. Further eq. vii and eq.
viii constitute the basic Gumbel’s equations and are
applicable to an infinite sample size (i.e. N ∞)
………….. iv
Since practical annual data series of extreme events
such as floods, maximum rainfall depths, etc all have
………….. v finite length of record, eq. viii is modified to account
for finite N.
………….. vi
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Gumbel’s Equation for Practical Use:
For small sample size,

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of Engineering and Management)
Steps:

• The plot of xT Vs T in Gumbel Probability Paper results a straight line.

• The Gumbel Probability paper is an aid for convenient graphical representation of Gumbel distribution.
• The Gumbel distribution will plot as a straight line on Gumbel probability and it has property which gives T =
2.33 year for average of annual series when N is very large.
• Thus the value of a flood with T = 2.33 year is called Mean Annual Flood.

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of Engineering and Management)
Confidence Limits:
• Limit within which true value is expected to lie with a given probability based on sampling errors is
confidence limit.
• Since the value of variate for a given return period, xT determined by Gumbel’s Method can have
errors due to limited sample data used, an estimate of confidence limits of estimate is desirable.
• The confidence interval indicates limits about calculated value between which true value can be
said to lie with a specific probability based on sampling errors only.
• For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval of variate xT is bounded by values x1 and x2
given by

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of Engineering and Management)
Q.1 A flood series have mean equal to 300 m^3/s and standard deviation as 50 m^3/s. Compute the magnitude
of 50 years flood using Gumbel’s Extreme value distribution. Take values of reduced mean & reduced
standard deviation in Gumbel’s Extreme value distribution as 0.577 & 1.2825 respectively.

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Q.2

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Q.3

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Q.4

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Q.5

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