SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.459637
R Square 0.211266
Adjusted R 0.132393
Standard E 4653.136
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 57995032 57995032 2.678547 0.132751
Residual 10 2.17E+08 21651674
Total 11 2.75E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5425.818 2863.807 1.894617 0.087395 -955.142 11806.78 -955.142 11806.78
X Variable 636.8357 389.1148 1.636627 0.132751 -230.1661 1503.837 -230.1661 1503.837
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.459637
R Square 0.211266
Adjusted R 0.132393
Standard E 4653.136
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 57995032 57995032 2.678547 0.132751
Residual 10 2.17E+08 21651674
Total 11 2.75E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5425.818 2863.807 1.894617 0.087395 -955.142 11806.78 -955.142 11806.78
X Variable 636.8357 389.1148 1.636627 0.132751 -230.1661 1503.837 -230.1661 1503.837
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.028362
R Square 0.000804
Adjusted R-0.099115
Standard E 4461.926
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 160280.8 160280.8 0.008051 0.930277
Residual 10 1.99E+08 19908780
Total 11 1.99E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 7534.864 2746.125 2.743816 0.020697 1416.115 13653.61 1416.115 13653.61
X Variable-33.47902 373.125 -0.089726 0.930277 -864.8533 797.8952 -864.8533 797.8952
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.028362
R Square 0.000804
Adjusted R-0.099115
Standard E 4461.926
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 160280.8 160280.8 0.008051 0.930277
Residual 10 1.99E+08 19908780
Total 11 1.99E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 7534.864 2746.125 2.743816 0.020697 1416.115 13653.61 1416.115 13653.61
X Variable-33.47902 373.125 -0.089726 0.930277 -864.8533 797.8952 -864.8533 797.8952
Regression of SKU 06
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5425.818182 2863.8072269067 1.894617113485 0.087395 -955.142 11806.78 -955.142 11806.778329
X Variable 636.8356643 389.114778389253 1.636626773652 0.132751 -230.1661 1503.837 -230.1661 1503.8374199

Period Product Demand for SKU 06

Mean
Absolut Squared
Forecas e Error Error
Level Lt Trend Tt t Ft Error Et At MSEt

5,425.8 637
1 Apr-11 6500 6,281.3 659 6,063 -437 437 191,272
2 May-11 501 3,720.5 337 6,940 6,439 6,439 20,826,189
3 Jun-11 16733 10,395.1 971 4,057 -12,676 12,676 67,442,200
4 Jul-11 5260 8,312.8 665 11,366 6,106 6,106 59,901,456
5 Aug-11 12688 10,833.0 851 8,978 -3,710 3,710 50,673,850
6 Sep-11 7100 9,391.9 622 11,684 4,584 4,584 45,730,072
7 Oct-11 5568 7,790.7 399 10,013 4,445 4,445 42,020,361
8 Nov-11 7950 8,070.0 387 8,190 240 240 36,775,017
9 Dec-11 12880 10,668.6 608 8,457 -4,423 4,423 34,862,273
10 Jan-12 11978 11,627.5 643 11,277 -701 701 31,425,176
11 Feb-12 17400 14,835.5 900 12,271 -5,129 5,129 30,959,852
12 Mar-12 10225 12,980.2 624 15,735 5,510 5,510 30,910,258
13 Apr-12 Forecasted value ---> 13,605
14 May-12 Forecasted value ---> 14,229
15 Jun-12 Forecasted value ---> 14,853
16 Jul-12 Forecasted value ---> 15,478

Alpha 0.5
Beta 0.1

Regression of SKU 04
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5425.818182 2863.8072269067 1.894617113485 0.087395 -955.142 11806.78 -955.142 11806.778329
X Variable 636.8356643 389.114778389253 1.636626773652 0.132751 -230.1661 1503.837 -230.1661 1503.8374199

Period Product Demand for SKU 04

Mean
Absolut Squared
Forecas e Error Error
Level Lt Trend Tt t Ft Error Et At MSEt
7534.863636364 -33.47902
1 Apr-11 5232 6,367 -147 7,501 2,269 2,269 5,150,107
2 May-11 2018 4,119 -357 6,220 4,202 4,202 11,402,380
3 Jun-11 17491 10,626 329 3,762 -13,729 13,729 70,431,563
4 Jul-11 7633 9,294 163 10,956 3,323 3,323 55,583,990
5 Aug-11 7435 8,446 62 9,458 2,023 2,023 45,285,456
6 Sep-11 5365 6,937 -95 8,508 3,143 3,143 39,384,808
7 Oct-11 4529 5,685 -211 6,842 2,313 2,313 34,522,502
8 Nov-11 13096 9,285 170 5,475 -7,621 7,621 37,467,727
9 Dec-11 5836 7,646 -11 9,456 3,620 3,620 34,760,488
10 Jan-12 3397 5,516 -223 7,635 4,238 4,238 33,080,746
11 Feb-12 7945 6,619 -90 5,294 -2,651 2,651 30,712,469
12 Mar-12 7830 7,180 -25 6,529 -1,301 1,301 28,294,063
13 Apr-12 Forecasted value ---> 7,155
14 May-12 Forecasted value ---> 7,130
15 Jun-12 Forecasted value ---> 7,105
16 Jul-12 Forecasted value ---> 7,080
MADt % Error MAPEt TSt

437 7 7 -1.0
3,438 1,285 646 1.7 Demand vs forcasting of SKU 06
6,517 76 456 -1.0 20000
6,414 116 371 -0.1 18000
5,874 29 303 -0.7 16000
5,659 65 263 0.1 14000
5,485 80 237 0.9 12000
10000
4,830 3 208 1.0
8000
4,784 34 188 0.1
6000
4,376 6 170 0.0
4000
4,445 29 157 -1.2
2000
4,533 54 149 0.1 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Demand for SKU 06 forcasting

Demand forcasting
for SKU
06
MADt % Error MAPEt TSt
1 6500 #REF!
2,269 43 43 1.0 2 501 #REF!
3,236 208 126 2.0 3 16733 #REF!
6,733 78 110 -1.1 4 5260 #REF!
5,881 44 93 -0.7 5 12688 #REF!
5,109 27 80 -0.4 6 7100 #REF!
4,782 59 77 0.3 7 5568 #REF!
4,429 51 73 0.8 8 7950 #REF!
4,828 58 71 -0.8 9 12880 #REF!
4,694 62 70 -0.1 10 11978 #REF!
4,648 125 76 0.8 11 17400 #REF!
4,467 33 72 0.3 12 10225 #REF!
4,203 17 67 0.0
ting of SKU 06

8 10 12 14

forcasting
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Demand forcasting
for SKU
06
6500 6,940
501 4,057
16733 11,366
5260 8,978
12688 11,684
7100 10,013
5568 8,190
7950 8,457
12880 11,277
11978 12,271
17400 15,735
10225 13,605
Demand V/S material consumed graph

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11

Material consumed 311166 318730 164029 316025 416342 423876 199904 697143
Monthly Totals demand 24897 17315 52019 28102 38945 37940 19857 52155
(Kilo)

Demand Vs Actual material consumed

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
30000.000 40000.000 50000.000 60000.000 70000.000 80000.000 90000.000

Monthly Totals demand

(Kilo)
Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Total
405913 396742 332902 100863 4083635 (from exhibit 1)
38340 26947 27829 35670 400015 (from exhibit 4)
 Exhibit 1 - Monthly Demand for Oleoresin in 2011 (April 2011 – March 2012)
Product Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11

SKU 06 6500 501 16733 5260 12688 7100 5568

SKU 04 5232 2018 17491 7633 7435 5365 4529
SKU 56 5663 1398
SKU 44 500 3990 5130
SKU 09 1910 2730 1790 1510 1325 1960 2500
SKU 01 1670 478 955 2237 1440 3513 735
SKU 11 3560
SKU 15 1883 100 358 3806 254
SKU 39 1998 1998
SKU 46 3000 2000 2000
SKU 08 2000 2000 2000
SKU 26 6000
SKU 33 2000 1200 1000 1600 0
Rest 41 SKUs 5586 3427 2967 6802 4313 7465 4271
Monthly Totals 24897 17315 52019 28102 38945 37940 19857
(Kilo)

Monthly Demand Apr 2011- Mar 2012

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

5232
2018
17491
7633
7435
5365
4529
13096
5836
3397
7945
7830
 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Product
Totals (Kilo)
7950 12880 11978 17400 10225 114782
13096 5836 3397 7945 7830 87808
15221 2180 24461
4370 8170 2170 24330
642 1920 1150 400 1750 19587
1845 729 1665 737 1550 17552
5000 1 840 9401
930 255 223 765 8574
2000 1008 690 7694
685 7685
590 6590
590 6590
570 6370 C
6101 3551 7526 1347 5235 58590 20000
52155 38340 26947 27829 35670 400015 18000
16000
14000
12000
2012 10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 2 4

10 11 12
 Chart Title

2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 Exhibit 2 - Company Order book for November 2011
Sale Order Date SKU Qty Sale Order Date SKU
01-Nov SKU 6 3900 13-Nov SKU 6
02-Nov SKU 1 1 14-Nov SKU 1
02-Nov SKU 17 1 14-Nov SKU 6
02-Nov SKU 4 1 14-Nov SKU 9
02-Nov SKU 4 5 15-Nov SKU 44
11-Nov SKU 9 50 15-Nov SKU 6
07-Nov SKU 1 100 SKU 4
07-Nov SKU 4 630 16-Nov SKU 6
07-Nov SKU 7 900 *
17-Nov SKU 15
07-Nov SKU 9 100 17-Nov SKU 4
08-Nov SKU 1 25 17-Nov SKU 4
08-Nov SKU 1 200 17-Nov SKU 9
08-Nov SKU 4 50 20-Nov SKU 6
09-Nov SKU 9 1 20-Nov SKU 9
10-Nov SKU 22 1000* 21-Nov SKU 12
10-Nov SKU 4 5 21-Nov SKU 15
10-Nov SKU 4 75 21-Nov SKU 4
10-Nov SKU 4 500* 21-Nov SKU 4
13-Nov SKU 35 0.1 21-Nov SKU 4
13-Nov SKU 4 2000 21-Nov SKU 56
* These products require extended testing of 168 hours or 7 days.
Exhibit 3 - Materials Inventory in 2010 (April 2010 – March 2011)
All quantities in Kilograms

Daily Sales Data Nov 2011

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
 Qty Sale Order Date SKU Qty
300 21-Nov SKU 9 1 1 3900
1 22-Nov SKU 1 0.03 2 8
500 22-Nov SKU 1 5* 3 0
40 22-Nov SKU 1 1260* 4 0
4370 22-Nov SKU 19 700 5 0
3000 22-Nov SKU 4 20 6 0
100 22-Nov SKU 56 4525* 7 1730
100 22-Nov SKU 56 6171* 8 275
150 24-Nov SKU 58 2000* 9 1
500 27-Nov SKU 1 1 10 1580
510 27-Nov SKU 1 250 11 50
200 28-Nov SKU 39 2000* 12 0
150 28-Nov SKU 4 2000 13 2300.1
250 28-Nov SKU 43 500 14 541
500 28-Nov SKU 62 250 15 7370
780 29-Nov SKU 1 1 16 200
50 29-Nov SKU 36 250 17 1360
1600 29-Nov SKU 4 250 18 0
4800* 30-Nov SKU 1 0.5 19 0
4525 20 400
21 12256

22 12681.03
23 0
24 2000
25 0
26 0
27 251
28 4750
29 501
30 0.5

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
 Peak Demand
Week 1 5638 3900
Week 2 4747.1 2300.1
Week 3 21586 12256
Week 4 19682.03 12681.03
 Month Pepper Pepper Pepper SFG SFG
Receipts Consumed Closing Produced Consumed
Stock

Mar-10 801118
Apr-10 311800 243780 869138 25597 30852
May-10 274259 264227 879169 27744 22834
Jun-10 417066 231001 1065234 24255 32598
Jul-10 379091 309592 1134733 32507 31779
Aug-10 288253 313557 1109429 32924 30484
Sep-10 242283 342704 1009008 35984 38480
Oct-10 213857 247568 975297 25995 30075
Nov-10 276840 235325 1016812 24709 24035
Dec-10 125332 315251 826893 33101 30796
Jan-11 578792 341015 1064670 35807 35651
Feb-11 109939 303627 870982 31881 32814
Mar-11 379499 365497 884984 38377 33418
Total 3597010 3513144 368880 373817
 Every 100 kilo of FG consumes only 90 kilo of SFG. The rest are oil and additives blended to bring it up
 SFG Closing stock FG Produced FG FG
Dispatch Closing Stock

14698 20548
9443 34280 30236 24592
14353 25371 26628 23335
6010 36220 31415 28140
6738 35310 39084 24366
9177 33872 33031 25207
6681 42756 30343 37619
2600 33417 34257 36779
3274 26706 31122 32363
5579 34218 33387 33194
5735 39612 36714 36092
4802 36460 31221 41332
9761 37131 30282 48181
415353 387720
s blended to bring it up to customer specs.
Exhibit 4 - Materials Inventory in 2011 (April 2011 - March 2012)
Month Pepper Pepper Pepper SFG SFG SFG Closing
Receipts Consumed Opening Produced Consumed Stock
Stock

Mar-11 884984 9761

Apr-11 190970 311166 764788 28556 26471 11846
May-11 196285 318730 642343 35844 9844 37846
Jun-11 340329 164029 818642 13319 24965 26201
Jul-11 517920 316025 1020537 30517 26025 30693
Aug-11 298739 416342 902934 35632 30867 35458
Sep-11 136774 423876 615832 38018 23931 49545
Oct-11 382848 199904 798776 21115 38189 32470
Nov-11 581090 697143 682724 44188 25779 50880
Dec-11 290831 405913 567641 34180 42611 42449
Jan-12 337337 396742 508236 47522 39536 50435
Feb-12 149150 332902 324484 43492 27648 66279
Mar-12 92239 100863 315860 40840 1440 105679
Total 3514512 4083635 413224 317305
 Every 100 kilo of FG consumes only 90 kilo of SFG. The rest are oil and additives blended to bring it up
Exhibit 5 - Synthite Oleoresin Plant Schematic
 FG FG FG
Produced Dispatch Closing
Stock

48181
29412 29269 48323
10938 21952 37309
27738 30000 35047
28917 30628 33337
34297 39993 27640
26590 31632 22599
42433 48222 16809
28643 32907 12545
47345 42109 17782
43929 48774 12937
30720 35531 8126
35670 35670 8126
386632 426686
es blended to bring it upto customer specs.
 Exhibit 6 - Quality Checks and associated Costs
# QC Test Cost Duration

Standard tests

1 Oil test Rs.75 6 hours

2 Piperine Test Rs.75 1 hour
Extended Tests
These are customer specified and FDA required tests

3 OC Test – Organochlorine –check for 17 Rs.1,200 4 days

pesticides coming under Organochlorine group
4 OP Test – Organo-phosphorous - check for 5 Rs.1,200 1 day
pesticides coming under Organo phosphorous
group
5 Ochra toxin test Rs.1,000 1 day
6 Alfa toxin test Rs.1,250 1 day
7 Microbiology - check for different microbial parameters Rs.720 TPC – 2 days TYMC –
like Total Plate Count (TPC), Yeast & Mold (TYMC), E coli, 7 days E.coli – 2
and Salmonella.
days
Salmonella – 3 days
8 Residual Solvent analysis – check for the Rs.150 2 hours
residue of the extraction solvent in oleoresin

Exhibit 7 - Total QC Cost Calculation for 2011

Description Calculation

SFG Level SFG produced = 413224 kilo (A)

SFG batch size = 1,260 kilo (B)
# of SFG batches = A/B = 328

Standard Tests @ Rs.150 (Oil and piperine) 328 x Rs.150 = Rs.49, 200

Total Cost (at SFG level) (C) Rs.49,200

FG Level Number of shipments – 976

Oil and piperine tests on each shipment
Other tests on 4 out of 10 shipments (on the average)

Standard Tests @ Rs.150 (Oil and piperine) 976 x 150 = Rs.1,46,400 (D)

Extended tests (required in 20% of 976 x 5520 x 2/10 = Rs.10,77,500 ( E )

shipments)

Total QC Cost (FY 11) (C+D+E) Rs.12,73,100

Exhibit 8 - Mixing Kettle Data

Kettle capacity Blending Time for Blending time at full
(KG) 1 MT or less (Hours) capacity
 Hours / MT
Kettle 1 1700 1 2
Kettle 2 2000 1 3
Kettle 3 3000 1 4

Exhibit 9 - Blending capacity calculation (standard test products)

Kettle Loading Unload Blending Testing Total Time (hrs)
capacity Time (hrs) time (hrs) Time (hrs) Time*
(kilo) (hrs)

Kettle 1 1700 2.43 2.43 2 6 12.86

Kettle 2 2000 2.86 2.86 3 6 14.71
Kettle 3 3000 4.29 4.29 4 6 18.57
Total Capacity (per hour)
 Standard tests take six hours, blocking the kettle for that period.
Exhibit 10 - Blending capacity calculation (extended test products)
Kettle 1 Kettle Loading Unload Blending Testing Total Time
capacity Time (hrs) time (hrs) Time (hrs) Time *
(Kilo) (hrs)

Kettle 2 1700 2.43 2.43 2 168 102.86

Kettle 3 2000 2.86 2.86 3 168 104.71
3000 4.29 4.29 4 168 108.57
Total Capacity (per hour)
 Extended tests can take 1 to 7 days blocking the kettle for that period.
 Roughly, 20% of the shipments require one or more extended tests.
 Calculation is based on a typical case where extended tests require 4 days.
 Capacity per
hour
(Kilo/hr)

132.22
135.92
161.54
429.68

Capacity per
hour
(Kilo/hr)

16.53
19.10
27.63
37.65

s.
 Exhibit 11 - Average Production Lead Times for High Volume Products (July 2010 – June 2011)
SKU Avg STDEV OF
Lead Time (Days) Lead Time
(Days)

SKU 01 19 11
SKU 04 12 21
SKU 05 30 11
SKU 06 20 13
SKU 07 20 8
SKU 09 15 29
SKU 10 20 14
SKU 11 49 40
SKU 22 20 8
SKU 26 42
SKU 34 12 7
SKU 39 18 8
SKU 40 15
SKU 44 20 20
SKU 56 29 20
Exhibit 12 - Average Inventory Days for FG Stock (July 2010 – June 2011)
Product Inventory Days

SKU 04 73
SKU 09 65
SKU 01 54
SKU 26 53
SKU 10 36
SKU 15 72
SKU 05 142
SKU 34 75
SKU 03 23
mes for High Volume Products (July 2010 – June 2011)

FG Stock (July 2010 – June 2011)

 Exhibit 13 - Number of changeovers / Cleanings
Product Variant Calculations
SFG Level Cleaning FG level Cleaning (Mixing Kettle)
(Charging kettle, sand mill,
Pipelines)
Decolorized pepper 10 SFG 10 25
batches
25 shipments

White Pepper 1 SFG batch 1 15

15 shipments

No additive black pepper 5 4

5 batches
4 shipments

Total 16 44
Cleaning Cost
Labour 8 man hours per cleaning = Rs.600 3 man hours per cleaning = Rs.225
Rs.600 x 16 cleanings = Rs.9,600 (A) Rs.225 x 44 cleanings = Rs.9,900 (B)
Oil 1 kilo oil per cleaning = Rs.10,000 x 16 cleaning 1/2 kilo oil per cleaning = Rs.5,000 x 44 cleaning
= Rs.1,60,000 (C) = Rs.2,20,000 (D)

Total Cost Rs.3,99,500

(A+B+C+D)
 Exhibit 14 - Rough Costs of Equipment
S.No. Equipment Cost
1 2 MT vessel Rs.3,50,000
2.5 MT kettle Rs.4,25,000
2 3 MT vessel Rs.4,00,000
3 5 MT vessel Rs. 5,35,000
4 7 MT vessel Rs.6,75,000
5 8 MT vessel Rs.7,50,000
6 10 MT vessel Rs.8,50,000
7 Sand mill Rs.12,00,000
8 Pipeline (average length 25 Rs.50 per meter
meters per vessel)
9 Extraction plant Rs.3,00,00,000
10 Distillation kettle (2 MT) Rs. 3,50,000
11 Shed Rs.25 per SFT
 Vessels are interchangeable. Any vessel can act like a charging kettle, SFG tank or mixing
kettle.
like a charging kettle, SFG tank or mixing