Strategic Local Flood Management Using Game

Theory Analysis

Problem: Developing and optimizing flood management strategies for the Municipality of
Carmen by analyzing decision-making scenarios related to resource allocation and
emergency response.

According to Qiang Zuo, Li Lao and Hui Qin (2020), Flood risk assessment in China
is a critical component of flood risk management, essential for timely and effective
decision-making in flood mitigation. However, the process is challenging due to the
difficulty in uncovering uncertainties, the nonlinear relationships between assessment
indices, and determining index weights that consider both objective and subjective
factors. Additionally, there is limited research on reducing computation time for rapid
flood risk mapping. To address these challenges, the P-CM-GT model was introduced,
utilizing cloud model (CM), game theory (GT), and parallel computing (PC) technology,
offering enhanced speed, accuracy, and the ability to handle complex uncertainties.

Vidhee Avashia and Amit Garg (2020) highlight that the growing urban population
and increasing land transitions in Indian cities heighten the risk of climate change
impacts, particularly urban flooding. Their study investigates the link between land
transitions and local flooding across 42 cities in India under various climate change
scenarios, establishing a clear empirical connection between land changes and flooding
events. Floods significantly affect society and the environment, causing human losses,
infrastructure damage, and economic disruptions. The study also explores atmospheric
circulation patterns associated with severe floods in Greece, using an updated
classification scheme of 12 circulation types. It identifies that cyclonic type C, centered
over the Cyclades, is dominant during catastrophic floods. The research further reveals
that Western Peloponnese and Epirus are the most vulnerable areas to significant
floods, according to the Floods' Frequency Vulnerability Index (FFVI). This methodology,
linking circulation types with flood occurrences, can be applied across the EU to
improve flood prediction mechanisms at the river basin level.

Italy is highly susceptible to both riverine and flash floods due to its diverse
topography and climate. The country's varied terrain, including the Apennine mountain
range and major rivers like the Po, Arno, and Tiber, often experiences significant
flooding, especially during intense autumn rainstorms. Urbanization in floodplains and
coastal areas has increased flood vulnerability by reducing natural water absorption and
increasing runoff. Historical events, such as the 1966 Florence flood and recent
incidents like the 2014 Liguria floods and the 2020 Venice floods, highlight the ongoing
risk. Despite efforts in flood management, including river embankments and forecasting
systems, challenges persist, exacerbated by climate change and complex flood
dynamics. Effective flood risk assessment and management remain crucial in mitigating
these impacts. (Ziyi Wu, Bhattacharya et al,. 2023)

China is experiencing an increasing occurrence of sudden transitions from drought

to flood conditions. These abrupt shifts, often exacerbated by climate variability, lead to
significant challenges in water resource management. The rapid change from drought,
which can cause soil degradation and water shortages, to intense flooding can
overwhelm infrastructure and disrupt water supply systems. This dynamic stresses the
need for adaptive strategies that address both extremes in climate to effectively manage
water resources, mitigate damage, and support resilience against such abrupt
environmental changes. (Hao Wang, Shanshan Wang et al.,2024)

Karol Dawid Mrozik (2022) stated that In Poland, local flooding in functional urban
areas poses significant challenges, primarily due to inadequate drainage systems and
increased urbanization. Rapid development often leads to the loss of natural floodplains
and the increased imperviousness of surfaces, which exacerbates runoff and
overwhelms existing drainage infrastructure. This can result in frequent and severe
flooding, affecting property, infrastructure, and public safety. Additionally, localized
flooding can strain municipal resources and disrupt daily activities, highlighting the need
for improved urban planning and effective flood management strategies to enhance
resilience in these areas.

Investigating social processes that underpin local flood risk management involves
examining how community dynamics, stakeholder interactions, and governance
structures influence flood preparedness and response. Key factors include the role of
local knowledge and experience in shaping risk perception and decision-making, the
effectiveness of communication and collaboration between government agencies,
community groups, and individuals, and the impact of social networks and institutional
frameworks on implementing flood management strategies. Understanding these social
processes is crucial for developing tailored, community-driven approaches to enhance
flood resilience and improve overall risk management. (Rosalind H. Bark and Mike C.
Acreman 2022)

According to Wilkinston (2019), Natural flood management (NFM) focuses on using

natural processes and landscapes to mitigate flood risks, such as restoring wetlands,
reforesting catchments, and improving soil infiltration. While small-scale NFM projects
have shown promise in reducing localized flooding and enhancing ecological health,
larger-scale implementation faces significant challenges. These include coordinating
across multiple jurisdictions, integrating NFM with existing infrastructure, and securing
sufficient funding and political support. Despite these challenges, NFM offers a
sustainable approach to flood management by leveraging natural systems to
complement traditional engineering solutions and address broader environmental and
social impact.
Sustainable catchment-wide flood management involves integrating ecological and
engineering approaches to manage flood risks across entire catchments. This review
examines the terminology and application of sustainable flood management techniques
in the UK, emphasizing the use of natural processes, such as wetlands restoration and
riverbank rewilding, alongside traditional methods. It highlights the benefits of these
techniques in enhancing resilience, improving water quality, and supporting biodiversity.
Challenges include aligning policies, engaging stakeholders, and balancing
environmental goals with practical implementation. The review underscores the
importance of a holistic approach to effectively manage flood risks while promoting
sustainability. (Lashford et al,. 2022)

The growing recognition of the importance of public participation in local flood risk
management (FRM) introduces new challenges, particularly regarding the capacity of
communities to engage in expert-led FRM efforts. Community Modelling (CM) has been
developed to improve local involvement in water management. Based on participatory
research from geography and science studies, CM includes four main components:
minimal resource requirements, strategic recruitment of participants, standardized
software, and active connections with decision-makers. This paper introduces CM and
demonstrates its application through a case study in England. In this example, free
computer software familiar to technical experts was used to collaboratively create flood
representations with a small group of affected residents. Under the guidance of a
natural science modeller, the group explored the causes of local flooding and discussed
potential mitigation strategies. Social science expertise supported interactions with local
flood risk managers, technical experts, and decision-making authorities. (Landstrom et
al,.2019)

Bullen and Miles (2024) stated, as urban expansion and climate change
increase flood risks, relying solely on engineered solutions is insufficient, particularly
when local risk perceptions differ. Participatory GIS (PGIS) offers a valuable approach
by integrating community input on flood risk. This study examines PGIS use in Reading,
UK, revealing that while residents generally understand flood zones accurately,
discrepancies with modelled risks suggest potential issues with flood models and
cartographic representation. This underscores the importance of incorporating
community perspectives into flood risk management to align perceived and modelled
risk zones effectively.

According to the study of Olsonoski and Gianoli (2024), water management

for flood control in New Orleans is hindered by institutional inertia, driven by factors
such as bureaucratic complexity with overlapping agency responsibilities, resistance to
change from entrenched practices, and funding constraints that limit infrastructure
investments. Political interests and local politics can also obstruct necessary reforms,
while public perception and misinformation about flood risks further complicate effective
management. Addressing these issues is essential for improving flood control and
enhancing the city's resilience.
Borron (2024) introduced the game theory he stated that, Game theory analysis
involves studying strategic interactions where the outcome for each participant depends
on the choices of others. It provides a framework to understand and predict behaviors in
competitive and cooperative scenarios by modeling the decision-making process of
rational agents. Key concepts include Nash equilibrium, where no player benefits from
unilaterally changing their strategy, and Pareto efficiency, where resources cannot be
reallocated to make one player better off without making another worse off. Game
theory applies to various fields, including economics, political science, and biology,
offering insights into optimal strategies and outcomes in complex scenarios.

Floods in both urban and non-urban areas cause long-term damage and casualties,
necessitating a shift from traditional flood management to a more integrated approach.
This research proposes a comprehensive framework for flood control using Low-Impact
Development (LID) practices and detention dams. The framework applies the Storm
Water Management Model (SWMM) to the Darakeh catchment in Tehran and integrates
it with the Pareto Envelope-based Selection Algorithm II (PESA-II) to generate optimal
flood management scenarios based on hydrological and economic objectives. It
balances flood protection upstream and downstream, incorporates stakeholder
preferences through utility functions, and selects scenarios using COmplex
PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS) and Nash bargaining methods. Results indicate
the framework can reduce peak flow by up to 60% and effectively address stakeholder
conflicts, demonstrating its potential for improving flood management strategies.
(Hassani et al., 2024)

Floods are among the most frequent and damaging disasters globally, exacerbated
by climate change, leading to more frequent and severe urban flooding. Effective risk
assessment is crucial for improving flood management and disaster reduction
strategies. This study introduces a new urban flooding risk assessment model using six
indicators of flood hazard and vulnerability, combined with game theory for weighting.
The model generates risk maps on a GIS platform and was validated against disaster
data from Zhengzhou city. Results indicate that the AHP-CRITIC·game theory method
provides more accurate weightings than AHP and AHP-EWM methods. The model
identifies high-risk areas, particularly in Jinshui district, and offers a practical framework
for rapid urban flooding risk assessment. (Peng and Zhang 2022)

Climate change and increased water demand from population growth and
development are intensifying water scarcity and environmental issues in river basins,
leading to conflicts over water rights and allocation. This study evaluates water
allocation methods for the Zarinehrood basin, incorporating climate change scenarios
from the Fifth IPCC report (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The study used
artificial neural networks for downscaling and quantile mapping for bias correction.
Water allocation was assessed using a bargaining game and Nash bargaining solution
(NBS), comparing symmetric and AHP methods. Results show rising temperatures and
precipitation, with AHP methods offering better utilities for water users than symmetric
methods. ( Hemati and Abrishamchi 2021)

Urban flooding is rising due to extreme precipitation, highlighting the need for
enhanced urban flood resilience (UFR). Introduces an improved UFR assessment
model combining the pressure-state-response (PSR) model and game theory. The
model uses a UFR index system based on urban elements, resilience characteristics,
and realization processes. It employs game theory methods, including the analytic
hierarchical process (AHP) and entropy weight method (EWM), to assess UFR. Using
Zhengzhou City as a case study, results show a steady improvement in UFR from 2012
to 2020, reaching a medium resilience level III. The assessment identifies the pressure
layer as risky, the state layer as moderately resilient, and the response layer as highly
responsive. The model's effectiveness and results align with real conditions, providing
insights for infrastructure, ecological management, early warning, and resilience
education to enhance UFR management. (Zhang and Shang 2023).

Traditional decision-making models for games of chance focus on short-term

strategies and often overlook dynamic changes over time. This study addresses this
limitation by developing a decision-making model that combines stratification (CST),
game theory, and shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) to improve long-term disaster
management. The model integrates the dynamic nature of decision environments with a
focus on reaching an ideal state over time. An interactive web application based on the
model allows decision-makers to identify optimal strategies using predictive tools. Monte
Carlo simulations validate the model, demonstrating its effectiveness in evaluating flood
risk strategies in Scotland's Highland and Argyll Local Plan District. Results indicate that
flood forecasting and awareness are the most effective mitigation strategies, followed by
emergency plans, planning policies, maintenance, and self-help. (Vafadarnikjoo et al,.
2023)

Residential buildings in flood-prone areas face significant damage during floods,

but many residents are reluctant to adopt private flood mitigation measures like
elevation and wet flood-proofing. This study aims to identify key motivational factors for
adopting such measures by proposing an extended framework for flood mitigation
behavior. Using data from household surveys in flood-prone areas of Australia and
analyzed through logistic regression, the research finds that flood-coping appraisal—
evaluating the effectiveness, cost, and implementation of mitigation measures—and
prior flood experience are the main factors influencing residents' decisions. These
insights can guide policymakers and practitioners in developing more effective
floodplain management strategies. (Semnan et al,. 2023)

Effective flood emergency management requires addressing the entire disaster

cycle: pre-flood, during the flood, and post-flood phases. Explores the necessity and
feasibility of a decision support system (DSS) for comprehensive flood management.
Building on previous work, this study expands the modular DSS model by integrating
various models into a unified framework, termed "Observed and Forecasted." It
provides a systematic approach for managing crises and analyzes the architecture of
each subsystem. The study aims to develop a disaster management metamodel to
create a decision support system that integrates and adapts to evolving disaster
scenarios, enhancing access to critical management information. (William et al,. 2024)

According to Da Silva ( et al,. 2020) the urgency for urban centers to adapt their
flood management strategies to address the increased frequency and severity of
extreme weather events. Strategic guidelines are provided to support decision-making
processes, offering actionable insights for policymakers, researchers, and urban
planners to better manage flood risks in increasingly dynamic urban settings.

Floods are frequent and devastating natural disasters, impacting both human lives
and ecosystems. This study aimed to create an integrated framework for flood
susceptibility assessment in data-scarce regions, using the Haraz watershed in Iran. By
selecting key flood-influencing indices and applying the DEMATEL approach to analyze
criteria interdependence, and the ANP method to determine factor importance, a flood
susceptibility map was developed. Validation with historical flood data (2006-2018) and
fuzzy theory improved the accuracy of susceptibility scores. The combined DEMATEL-
ANP approach with fuzzy-value function achieved an accuracy of 89.1%, with elevation,
land use, and soil being the primary flood-influencing factors. ( Azareh et al,. 2021)