Poll On The 41st Congressional District

California Elections & Policy Poll (CEPP) Center for Urban Politics and Policy, CSU Long Beach
September 14-21, 2024 University of Southern California

Contact: Dr. Christian Grose, USC, cgrose@usc.edu Cal Poly Pomona
The California Elections and Policy Polls (CEPP) of California’s Competitive U.S.
House Districts, eight polls conducted September 14-21, 2024
The California Elections and Policy Polls (CEPP) are representative surveys of California
likely voters within individual U.S. House districts. In total, we conducted 8 separate polls
in 8 House elections. Two of the polls were conducted in Democrat-versus-Democrat
general elections (CA-12 in the East Bay, an open seat due to Rep. Barbara Lee’s retirement;
and CA-16 in the San Jose/South Bay area, an open seat due to Rep. Anna Eshoo’s
retirement). Six of the polls were conducted in Democrat-versus-Republican general
elections in the most purple districts in the state (CA-13 in the San Joaquin Valley; CA-22 in
the Central Valley/Bakersfield; CA-27 in L.A. County; CA-41 in Riverside County; CA-45
in Orange County; and CA-47 in Orange County). Each survey was fielded September 14 to
21, 2024. These survey results are a snapshot of the electorate’s attitudes within each
congressional district on the days in which the polls were fielded and may not reflect changes
to voter attitudes that occur between now and Election Day.
Each poll asked about vote choices in the U.S. House general election in each district. Each
poll also measured vote choices for the U.S. Senate general election, the U.S. presidential
general election, voter excitement for the upcoming election, and feelings about the
economy. Each poll of the congressional districts also asked respondents to briefly describe
in open-ended responses the word or words that come to mind when thinking about each
U.S. House candidate. While we present results for all congressional districts below in one
document, it is important to note that each poll was conducted separately within each
congressional district; and sampling and weighting were done within each district to ensure
the electorate was representative of each district. Results presented are for likely voters. Each
congressional district poll has its own sample size and margin of error (reported as N and
MoE in the polling results below). For additional methodological details, see the statement of
methodology below. Toplines and crosstabs may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
The polls are conducted by a team including Dr. Christian Grose (University of Southern
California); Dr. Matthew Mendez Garcia (CSU, Long Beach); Raquel Centeno (University of
Southern California); Dr. Jarred Cuellar (Cal Poly Pomona); Dr. Matt Lesenyie (CSU, Long
Beach); and Jose Alcocer (University of Southern California.
1
English-language media Inquiries: Please contact Dr. Christian Grose, at

cgrose@usc.edu, drchristiangrose@gmail.com, and 818-277-6789. Please also
contact Dr. Matt Lesenyie at Matt.Lesenyie@csulb.edu.
Spanish-language media Inquiries: Please contact Jose Alcocer at alcocer@usc.edu

or Dr. Jarred Cuellar at jrcuellar@cpp.edu.
2
Summary of topline findings from the California Elections and Policy Polls of
competitive U.S. House districts:
1. We polled six of the most competitive congressional districts between

Democrats and Republicans in California. Democratic U.S. House candidates
lead in 4 of 6 of these congressional districts, are tied in a fifth, and a Republican
House candidate is winning in 1 of 6 of these districts. Please note the margins of
error in each of these polls suggest all six of these races are statistical dead heats.
The topline number in the six competitive districts with a Democrat and Republican
on the ballot show Democratic House candidates ahead in CA-13, CA-22, CA-27,
CA-45; the Republican House candidate leading in CA-47; and an exact tie in the
polling estimates in CA-41. The Republican party currently controls the U.S. House
by a slim margin of about 4 seats, so which party wins these California districts could
easily affect party control of the House after the 2024 elections. These polling results
are displayed in the table below in order from Democratic to Republican strength in
the topline numbers.
Vote for Vote for

U.S. House Dem. House GOP House Polling
District candidate candidate Lead*
CA-22: Valadao/R-inc. v. Salas/D 42.7% 38.5% +4.2 D
CA-13: Duarte/R-inc. v. Gray/D 44.4% 42.4% +2.0 D
CA-45: Steel/R-inc. v. Tran/D 44.8% 43.3% +1.5 D
CA-27: Garcia/R-inc. v. Whitesides/D 44.4% 43.1% +1.4 D
CA-41: Calvert/R-inc. v. Rollins/D 46.1% 46.1% +0 D / R
CA-47: Baugh/R v. Min/D [open seat] 42.5% 46.2% +3.7 R
*All of these polling leads are within the margin of error for each poll.
2. Democrats still maintain leads in these same 4 districts when undecided voters
are pushed to choose a candidate in a follow-up question, though the lead gets
smaller in three of the six districts as undecided voters in those districts lean
toward the Republican candidates. Including those who said they plan to vote for
one of the candidates in the initial vote choice question along with undecided voters
who were pushed to choose a candidate, the polling outcomes in the above table do
not change much. Democrats still lead in these same four districts of CA-13, CA-22,
CA-27, and CA-45 (still within the margin of error); Republicans still lead in CA-47
(within the margin of error); and the Republican candidate goes ahead by 0.4 points in
CA-41 when undecided leaners are forced to choose (still within the margin of error).
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3. Yet undecided voters – if they break toward one candidate or party in each
district – will likely determine the outcome in these six “purple” districts. When
asked “Even though you said you didn't know who you plan to vote for in the US
House election, if you were forced to choose, who would you vote for?” undecided
voters in three districts (CA-13, CA-22, and CA-41) narrowly favored the Republican
candidate. Undecided voters in three other districts (CA-27, CA-45, and CA-47)
narrowly favored the Democratic candidate. The table below shows this breakdown
by district, listed in order by the highest percentages of undecided voters.
% Undecided Undecideds in district

likely voters break toward which
U.S. House District in district party when forced?*
CA-22: Valadao/R-inc. v. Salas/D 16.3% R
CA-45: Steel/R-inc. v. Tran/D 11.3% D
CA-13: Duarte/R-inc. v. Gray/D 10.6% R
CA-27: Garcia/R-inc. v. Whitesides/D 10.4% D
CA-47: Baugh/R v. Min/D [open seat] 10.1% D
CA-41: Calvert/R-inc. v. Rollins/D 7.1% R
*Undecided voters were also given an option to say “I really don’t know” when forced to
choose, and many chose this third option.
4. Lateefah Simon and Sam Liccardo lead in potentially competitive Democrat-

versus-Democrat open seat House elections in the Bay Area. We polled two open
seats where a Democrat faces off against another Democrat. In CA-12 in the East Bay,
Lateefah Simon is ahead of Jennifer Tran 27.9% to 14.8% in the election to replace
retiring Rep. Barbara Lee. However, more than half of CA-12 voters are undecided in
this U.S. House race. In CA-16, in the south Bay, Democrat and former San Jose
mayor Sam Liccardo has a lead of 30.9% to 20.1% over Democrat and Assembly
member Evan Low. Over 40% of voters in CA-16 say they are undecided. Both
Simon and Liccardo’s leads are outside of the margin of error.
Dem. Candidate Dem. Candidate Polling Lead*

CA-12 L. Simon, 27.9% J. Tran, 14.8% +13.1 Simon
CA-16 S. Liccardo, 30.9% E. Low, 20.1% +10.8 Liccardo
*These are both outside the margin of error for each poll.
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5. When undecided voters are pushed to choose in Democrat-versus-Democrat

CA-12 and CA-16, Simon and Liccardo open up bigger leads against their same-
party opponents. In CA-12, when undecideds are forced to choose, Simon opens up a
14 %-point lead instead of a 13.1 %-point lead. In CA-16, when undecideds are forced
to choose, Liccardo opens up a 16.5 %-point lead instead of a 10.8 %-point lead.
6. California Democratic House candidates have the wind at their back, yet
Republican candidates show resilience in these polls relative to the top of the
ticket. House Republican candidates in most of the purple districts are
outperforming GOP Senate candidate Steve Garvey and GOP presidential
nominee Donald Trump even while locked in tight House races. Even though
Democratic House candidates have margin-of-error leads in the majority of purple
House districts surveyed, in five of these six purple districts [CA-13, CA-22, CA-27,
CA-45, CA-47], the Republican House candidate is polling better than the GOP
Senate candidate (Steve Garvey) is polling within these districts. Most of these House
Republican candidates are also polling better than GOP presidential candidate Donald
Trump within their districts. This suggests strength from presidential nominee Kamala
Harris and Senate candidate Adam Schiff at the top of the Democratic ticket could be
offset by strong showings from House Republican candidates, or that a strong turnout
for Democrats at the top of the ticket could knock out several of the Republican
incumbents despite their ticket-splitting resilience.
7. In CA-41, Republican Ken Calvert is the only incumbent underperforming the

GOP candidates at the top of the ticket. Will Rollins is tied 46.1%-46.1% with
Calvert because Rollins has consolidated Democratic voters in CA-41 and is
peeling off a small but significant number of Rollins-Garvey voters. Unlike his
GOP colleagues, Calvert is doing about 4 points worse than Steve Garvey in the
district. Garvey leads Schiff in CA-41 in the U.S. Senate race. Yet, among voters who
voted in 2022, Calvert is winning narrowly. Undecided voters in the 2024 election are
breaking toward Calvert 24.5% to 18.4%. This lean-GOP district appears to be
competitive heading into November.
8. CA-41 is shaping up as a race of extremity and personal characteristics. When

asked to provide a word or words about each candidate, the most common word
describing Calvert was “corrupt” (26.1% of likely voters) and the most common
words describing Rollins were “liberal/too liberal” (12.6% of likely voters) followed
by “young” and “fresh” (11.2%).
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9. Democratic leads in most of these D-versus-R districts are due to voters who
say they are likely to vote in 2024 but who said they did not vote in 2022. If
Democratic candidates win in these competitive House districts, they will have won
due to the presence of presidential-year voters who do not always participate in
midterms as these district polls show that those who did not vote in 2022 are favoring
Democratic House candidates.
For example, in CA-27, Democrat George Whitesides has support from 34.6% of
those who did not vote in 2022 but plan to vote in 2024; and Republican Mike Garcia
has support from 17.9% of those who did not vote in 2022 but plan to vote in 2024
(the remainder of 2022 non-voters are undecided). Another example is CA-45, where
38.7% of 2022 non-voters who plan to vote in 2024 support Democrat Derek Tran
while 23.9% of these 2022 non-voters likely to vote in 2024 are for Republican
Michelle Steel. In CA-22, 2022 non-voters likely to vote in 2024 are more evenly split
with 27.9% for Democrat Rudy Salas, 24.4% for Republican David Valadao, and the
rest of 2022 non-voters undecided between Valadao and Salas. If Republicans win in
these competitive House districts, these polls suggest they will do so because the
districts’ electorates were similar enough to the 2022 general electorates; or because
the Republican candidates are able to convince just enough new voters to cast ballots
for GOP House candidates down ticket even as more voters head to the polls in a
presidential election year. The polling data show advantages for Democrats due to
higher participation in 2024 from those who did not vote in 2022.
10. Michelle Steel and Derek Tran are in a neck-and-neck race. Perhaps more
than any other district polled, the underlying partisanship favors Democrats. In
CA-45, Democrat Adam Schiff leads Republican Steve Garvey by 6.8 percentage
points and Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in CA-45 by 8.3 percentage
points. House Republican Michelle Steel trails Democrat Derek Tran by only 1.5
percentage points, demonstrating Republican endurance in a Democratic-leaning
district. Yet Tran’s lead within the margin of error suggests a Democratic wave could
push out Steel despite her stronger performance than Republicans at the top of the
ticket in U.S. House district 45.
11. A potential bright spot for Republicans is CA-47 (an open seat where Rep.
Katie Porter is stepping down). While within the margin of error, meaning either
candidate could win, Republican Scott Baugh leads Democrat Dave Min. The
poll of CA-47 shows attacks against Min’s DUI arrest have worked. In the poll,
we asked likely voters in CA-47 to list a word or words to describe each candidate.
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Min’s most frequent open-ended mention by voters in response to this question was
“DUI” or “Drunk” or “Drunk driving” or “Drunk driver” (14.9%). Baugh’s most
frequent mention was “Conservative” (15.2% of voters offered this word for Baugh).
12. In CA-27 in northern Los Angeles County, Democrat George Whitesides is

ahead of Republican incumbent Mike Garcia, though the margin of error
suggests the race is statistically tied. Unlike some other districts polled,
undecided voters in CA-27 are breaking toward the Democratic challenger
instead of toward the Republican incumbent. Whitesides leads Garcia 44.4% to
43.1% with 10.4% saying they don’t know who they will vote for (and 2.1% plan to
not cast a ballot in this election). When pushed, the 10.4% of undecideds break
36.7% to 29.2% to Whitesides with the remaining 24.0% still undecided. Including
both supporters and undecided leaners, Whitesides is ahead 48.2% to Garcia’s 46.1%.
13. Republican incumbent David Valadao is locked in a tight race with Democrat
Rudy Salas. Salas leads by 4.2 % points, though this is within the margin of error
of +/-6.1 given this district had the smallest sample size of all eight House district
polls. Turnout will determine who wins CA-22, and the presidential election year
may make the difference. One-quarter of likely voters did not vote in the 2022
election, and these new voters slightly favor Salas. Harris leads Trump in the
presidential race by a wide 7.3 percentage points in the district, and Schiff leads
Garvey by more than 8 points, providing a potential top-of-the ticket boost for
Democrat Salas. On the other hand, Valadao has advantages as well. Voters’
comments about Valadao are generally positive, noting he is a “Farmer” and that he
“Cares about people in the Valley” when respondents were asked to describe him.
Also favoring Valadao: A majority of voters who voted in the 2022 election who also
plan to vote in 2024 support Valadao, as do undecided voters in CA-22 when they are
pushed to choose a candidate (31.6% of undecided voters favor Valadao when pushed
and 26.5% of undecided voters favor Salas; the rest were still undecided even when
forced to choose).
14. CA-13 voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020 by almost 11 percentage

points, but Harris leads by only 3.3 percentage points in the poll so there may be
a shift in CA-13 toward the Republicans at the top of the ticket in this district.
However, in the CA-13 poll, incumbent Republican John Duarte trails Adam
Gray by 2 percentage points (within the margin of error). Duarte won the district
by only about 500 votes over Gray in 2022 and turnout in 2024 will determine who
wins. According to the poll, those who voted in 2022 who plan to vote in 2024
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narrowly favor Republican Duarte, but new voters narrowly favor Democrat Gray.
Further, voters who are very excited about the 2024 election heavily favor Gray over
Duarte.
15. Voters excited to take part in the 2024 election favor House Democratic
candidates by large margins in the six purple districts polled. The cross-tabs show
that the enthusiasm gap favors Democratic House candidates, and this enthusiasm gap
is particularly pronounced in five of the six competitive districts featuring a
Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate. The table below shows that voters
who are very excited to vote in 2024 favor the Democratic House candidate by double
digits in CA-13 (+14.9 Democrat Adam Gray); in CA-27 (+11.7 Democrat George
Whitesides); in CA-41 (+12.6 Democrat Will Rollins) in CA-45 (+13.2 Democrat
Derek Tran); and in CA-47 (+13.1 Democrat David Min). The only districts where
enthusiasm is relatively similar is CA-22, where voters who are very excited to vote in
2024 favor Democrat Rudy Salas over Republican David Valadao by only 1.6
percentage points.
Polling
Very excited Very excited lead, only
to vote, Vote to vote, Vote among
for Dem. for GOP very
House House excited
U.S. House District candidate* candidate* voters*
CA-13: Duarte/R-inc. v. Gray/D 52.1% 37.2% +14.9 D
CA-45: Steel/R-inc. v. Tran/D 52.7% 39.5% +13.2 D
CA-47: Baugh/R v. Min/D [open seat] 54.1% 41.0% +13.1 D
CA-41: Calvert/R-inc. v. Rollins/D 54.5% 41.9% +12.6 D
CA-27: Garcia/R-inc. v. Whitesides/D 52.1% 40.4% +11.7 D
CA-22: Valadao/R-inc. v. Salas/D 46.5% 44.9% +1.6 D
*Voters were asked if they are very excited, somewhat excited, somewhat not excited, or very not excited
to vote in the 2024 election. The table reports vote support for those saying they are very excited.
16. Voters in the East Bay are proud that Kamala Harris could become president
of the United States. When reminded that Harris spent much of her early life in the
East Bay area of California, 34.6% of CA-12 [based in Oakland and Berkeley] voters
are very proud and 27.3% are somewhat proud that Harris has roots in the East Bay
and could be elected the next president of the United States.
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Polling methodology for each U.S. House district survey: Each congressional district had its
own survey conducted. The sample size and margin of error for each individual congressional
district survey is as follows:1
CA12/East Bay (Lateefah Simon, D vs. Jennifer Tran, D), open seat, N=510 LVs, MoE +/-4.3%2
CA13/San Joaquin Valley (John Duarte, R-inc. vs. Adam Gray, D), N=311 LVs, MoE +/-5.6%
CA16/San Jose (Sam Liccardo, D vs. Evan Low, D), open seat, N=544 LVs, MoE +/-4.2%
CA22/Central Valley (David Valadao, R-inc. vs. Rudy Salas, D), N=263 LVs, MoE +/-6.1%
CA27/LA County (Mike Garcia, R-inc. vs. George Whitesides, D), N=522 LVs, MoE +/-4.3%
CA41/Riverside County (Ken Calvert, R-inc. vs. Will Rollins, D), N=539 LVs, MoE +/-4.2%
CA45/Orange County (Michelle Steel, R-inc. vs. Derek Tran, D), N=498 LVs, MoE +/-4.4%
CA47/Orange County (Scott Baugh, R vs. Dave Min, D), open seat, N=525 LVs, MoE +/-4.3%
Within each separate poll, voters were randomly sampled from the list of voters in each
congressional district (relying upon the California voter file), ensuring equal probability of
participation for all voters in the district; and to provide representativeness of the district’s
voters. Then, voters were screened for those who said they were “very likely” or “somewhat
likely” to vote. Each survey was fielded by email to all sampled voters using an online survey
platform. For each individual poll, once all survey data were collected, for greater statistical
precision and accuracy, we calculated and used survey weights that are standard in the field to
adjust for observable non-response. These weights were calculated for each individual
respondent based on representative data on voters within each congressional district. These
survey weights were calculated separately for each congressional district poll and were used in
calculating the topline and crosstab results for each poll in each district. This method makes each
congressional district poll’s results representative of the 2024 likely voter electorate in each
district. Survey weighting included party registration, past voting behavior, and demographic
variables (gender, race/ethnicity, age, party ID) within each district. A raking procedure using
the anesrake method in the statistical program R was conducted to compute the weights. The
polling was conducted by Data Viewpoint for the CSU-Long Beach Urban Politics and Policy
Center in partnership with USC and Cal Poly Pomona. The surveys were fielded in English,
Spanish, Korean, Mandarin/Chinese, and Vietnamese.
1
There are larger margins of error for subsamples and crosstabs – these are the topline sample sizes and margins of
error.
2
LVs=Likely voters; N=sample size; MoE=Margin of error in each district poll.
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TOPLINE RESULTS
LIKELY VOTERS, CA-12

(Lateefah Simon/D v.
Jennifer Tran/D)
Poll conducted,
September 14-21, 2024
N=510, MoE +/- 4.3%
Crosstabs of demographic and other subgroups are
presented at the end of this document after all the
congressional district topline results
10
CA-12 (East Bay)
Lateefah Simon/D v. Jennifer Tran/D (open seat)
Source for district map: California Citizens Redistricting Commission.
11
CA-12. Lateefah Simon [D] versus Jennifer Tran [D]

N=510 likely voters. MofE +/-4.3%
All questions listed candidate choices in randomized order; and listed

candidate political party and occupation as will be displayed on actual ballot.
US House election, likely voters in U.S. House district 12
US House: All likely voters: Thinking ahead to the 2024 November general
election, who do you plan to vote for to be US House Representative?
27.9% Lateefah Simon (Democrat)

14.8% Jennifer Tran (Democrat)
54.4% Don’t know
2.9% I will skip this election
US House: Undecided US House likely voters only: Even though you said you
didn't know who you plan to vote for in the US House election, if you were
forced to choose, who would you vote for? [asked only to those answering
‘Don’t know’ to above vote choice question to measure undecided leaners]

53.2% I really don’t know
US House: All likely voters with undecided leaners: Combining responses to

“Thinking ahead to the 2024 November general election, who do you plan to
vote for to be US House Representative?” and “don’t know” responses to
branch question “Even though you said you didn't know who you plan to vote
for in the US House election, if you were forced to choose, who would you
vote for?”

28.9% Don’t know, then answered ‘I really don’t know’ to leaner branch
question
12
US Senate election, likely voters in U.S. House district 12

US Senate: All CA-12 likely voters: Thinking ahead to the 2024 November
general election, who do you plan to vote for to be US Senator?
80.7% Adam Schiff (Democrat)

8.4% Steve Garvey (Republican)
7.4% Don’t know
US Senate: CA-12 likely voters, only those undecided on US Senate: Even

though you said you didn't know who you plan to vote for in the US Senate
election, if you were forced to choose, who would you vote for? [asked only to
those answering ‘Don’t know’ to above vote choice question to measure
undecided leaners]

US Senate: All CA-12 likely voters with undecided Senate leaners: Combining
responses to “Thinking ahead to the 2024 November general election, who do
you plan to vote for to be US Senator?” and “don’t know” leaners’ responses
to branch question “Even though you said you didn't know who you plan to
vote for in the US Senate election, if you were forced to choose, who would
you vote for?”

13
US presidential election, likely voters in U.S. House district 12

President/VP: All CA-12 likely voters: Thinking ahead to the 2024 November general
election, who do you plan to vote for president and vice president?
79.4% Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (Democrat)

6.1% Donald Trump and J.D. Vance (Republican)
2.1% Robert Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan (American Independent)
2.0% Chase Oliver and Mike ter Maat (Libertarian)
4.2% Jill Stein and Rudolph Ware (Green)
1.7% Claudia de la Cruz and Karina Garcia (Peace and Freedom)
3.7% Don’t know
<1% I will skip this election
President/VP: CA-12 likely voters, only those undecided on US president: Even though
you said you didn't know who you plan to vote for in the US presidential election, if you
were forced to choose, who would you vote for? [asked only to those answering ‘Don’t
know’ to above vote choice question to measure undecided leaners]

<1% Donald Trump and J.D. Vance (Republican)
<1% Robert Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan (American Independent)
<1% Claudia de la Cruz and Karina Garcia (Peace and Freedom)
President/VP: All CA-12 likely voters with undecided presidential leaners: Combining
responses to “Thinking ahead to the 2024 November general election, who do you plan
to vote for president and vice president?” and “don’t know” leaners’ responses to branch
question “Even though you said you didn't know who you plan to vote for in the US
presidential election, if you were forced to choose, who would you vote for?”

1.7% Claudia de la Cruz and Karina Garcia (Peace and Freedom)
<1% I really don’t know
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CA-12 likely voters: Kamala Harris spent much of her early life in the East Bay
Area of California and could become the next president of the United States.
Does this make you proud to be a resident of the East Bay or of California?
34.6% Very proud
27.3% Somewhat proud
2.1% Somewhat not proud
4.1% Very not proud
31.9% This doesn’t matter to me
<1% Don’t know
CA-12 likely voters: What word or words come to mind when you think of
Lateefah Simon? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure,
you can just write "Don't know" or skip this question.
14.4% BART/Transit policy
10.1% Barbara Lee/Barbara Lee endorsed
9.4% Progressive
6.4% Black
5.8% Strong
5.0% Liberal
5.0% Committed
4.3% Women/women’s rights
4.3% Democrat
3.6% Civil rights
3.6% Experience/Experienced
3.6% Leader
3.6% Social justice
<3% All other open-ended comments
[these percentages excluded those who said don’t know or did not answer; or
open-ended responses that were stated by less than 1% of respondents]
15
Jennifer Tran? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you
can just write "Don't know" or skip this question.
9.3% new/an unknown
9.0% Asian / Asian American
5.6% Vietnamese
6.7% Who?
6.3% Professor
6.0% Liberal
5.4% Qualified
4.0% Capable
4.2% Conservative
4.2% Corrupt
4.2% Educated
CA-12 likely voters: How excited are you about the upcoming November
election?
39.2% Very excited
28.1% Somewhat excited
10.0% Somewhat not excited
21.0% Very not excited
1.8% Don’t know
CA-12 likely voters: Over the last year, would you say local economic
conditions in your area are getting better or worse?
23.0% Better
34.1% Worse
38.6% About the same
4.3% I’m not sure / don’t know
16
CA-12 likely voters: Over the last year, would you say California's economic
conditions are getting better or worse?
23.3% Better
38.8% Worse
CA-12 likely voters: Over the last year, would you say national economic
45.3% Better
32.2% Worse
CA-12 likely voters: In the November 2020 U.S. presidential election, who did
you support? [candidate choices presented in random order]
83.9% Joe Biden (Democrat)
6.7% Donald Trump (Republican)
9.4% Did not vote in 2020/Don’t remember/Other candidate
CA-12 likely voters: In the November 2022 U.S. House election, who did you
support? [candidate choices presented in random order]
85.7% Barbara Lee (Democrat)
9.6% Stephen Slauson (Republican)
4.7% Did not vote in 2022/Don’t remember
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TOPLINE RESULTS

(John Duarte/R v. Adam Gray/D)
Poll conducted,
N=311, MoE +/- 5.6%
18
CA-13 (San Joaquin Valley)
John Duarte/R v. Adam Gray/D
19
CA-13. John Duarte [R-inc.] versus Adam Gray [D]


44.4% Adam Gray (Democrat)

42.4% John Duarte (Republican)
10.6% Don’t know


vote for?”

question
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7.7% Don’t know

undecided leaners]

you vote for?”

21

President/VP: All CA13 likely voters: Thinking ahead to the 2024 November general

<1% Chase Oliver and Mike ter Maat (Libertarian)
<1% Jill Stein and Rudolph Ware (Green)
6.5% Don’t know


22
CA-13 likely voters: What word or words come to mind when you think of John
Duarte? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you can
just write "Don't know" or skip this question.
13.2% Conservative
10.4% Dishonest/Liar
8.0% Farmer
7.9% Republican
4.4% MAGA/Trump supporter
4.4% Spineless
3.6% Practical
3.6% Self-interested
3.2% Gets things done/effective
3.2% Moderate
3.2% Not perfect
3.2% Rich
3.2% Strong/stronger
23
Adam Gray? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you
9.8% Democrat
6.5% Liberal
5.6% Dishonest/Liar
4.1% Career politician/Politician
4.1% Honest
4.1% Moderate
4.1% Not Republican/Not Trump
4.1% Weak
3.5% Cares/Cares about Valley
3.5% Experienced
3.5% Pro-choice/pro-reproductive rights
3.2% Corrupt/Crook
3.2% Good person
3.2% Hard working
election?
40.1% Very excited
1.8% Don’t know
14.4% Better
63.7% Worse
24
15.8% Better
65.4% Worse
23.1% Better
60.9% Worse
25
TOPLINE RESULTS

(Sam Liccardo/D v. Evan Low/D)
Poll conducted,
N=544, MoE +/- 4.2%
26
CA-16 (San Jose/South Bay)
Sam Liccardo/D v. Evan Low/D (open seat)
27
CA-16. Sam Liccardo [D] versus Evan Low [D]


30.9% Sam Liccardo (Democrat)

20.1% Evan Low (Democrat)
42.2% Don’t know


vote for?”

22.7% % Don’t know, then answered ‘I really don’t know’ to leaner branch
question
28


8.3% Don’t know

undecided leaners]

you vote for?”

29


3.4% Don’t know


30
CA-16 likely voters: What word or words come to mind when you think of Sam
Liccardo? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you can
28.2% Mayor/San Jose Mayor
13.2% Democrat
6.1% Moderate
5.0% Pragmatist/Pragmatic
4.0% Effective
4.0% Shady
3.1% Ambitious
3.1% Competent
3.1% Politician
Evan Low? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you can
20.4% Liberal
12.7% Progressive
11.3% Young
7.0% Asian/Asian American
6.3% Democrat
5.6% Politician
4.2% Inexperienced
3.8% Energetic
3.8% Gay
3.8% Honest
3.8% Radical
31
election?
39.7% Very excited
1.9% Don’t know
18.1% Better
41.7% Worse
16.4% Better
54.0% Worse
31.1% Better
45.9% Worse
32
44.9% Anna Eshoo (Democrat)
32.5% Rishi Kumar (Democrat)
33
TOPLINE RESULTS

(David Valadao/R
v. Rudy Salas/D)
Poll conducted,
N=263, MoE +/-6.1%
34
CA-22 (Central Valley/Bakersfield)
David Valadao/R inc. v. Rudy Salas/D
35
CA-22. David Valadao [R] versus Rudy Salas [D]


42.7% Rudy Salas (Democrat)

38.5% David Valadao (Republican)
16.3% Don’t know


vote for?”

question
36


11.4% Don’t know

undecided leaners]

you vote for?”

37


5.1% Don’t know


38
David Valadao? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you
12.7% Farmer
10.4% Republican
9.7% Trump supporter/Trump
5.9% Conservative
5.5% Careerist/Career politician
5.2% Cares/cares about people in the Valley
5.2% Water
3.7% Honest
3.7% Puppet
3.7% RINO
3.0% Impeachment/Impeached Trump
3.0% Status quo/more of the same
Rudy Salas? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you
19.2% Democrat
11.5% Good enough/fine/tolerable
9.6% Liberal
9.6% Moderate
7.6% Teacher
5.7% Politician
5.7% Regular guy
3.8% Dishonest
3.8% Slimy/Slippery
39
election?
42.4% Very excited
5.3% Don’t know
9.4% Better
60.8% Worse
9.2% Better
71.7% Worse
19.1% Better
63.2% Worse
40
41
TOPLINE RESULTS

(Mike Garcia/R v. George
Whitesides/D)
Poll conducted,
N=522, MoE +/- 4.3%
42
CA-27 (northern L.A. County)
Mike Garcia/R inc. v. George Whitesides/D
43
CA-27. Mike Garcia [R-inc.] versus George Whitesides [D]


44.4% George Whitesides (Democrat)

43.1% Mike Garcia (Republican)
10.4% Don’t know


vote for?”

question
44


8.4% Don’t know

undecided leaners]

you vote for?”

45


5.2% Don’t know
President/VP: CA-27 likely voters, only those undecided on US president

Even though you said you didn't know who you plan to vote for in the US presidential
election, if you were forced to choose, who would you vote for? [asked only to those
answering ‘Don’t know’ to above vote choice question to measure undecided leaners]

<% Robert Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan (American Independent)

46
CA-27 likely voters: What word or words come to mind when you think of Mike
Garcia? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you can
8.6% Veteran
8.1% Conservative
7.6% Military/Fighter pilot
7.0% MAGA
6.5% Republican
5.4% Insurrectionist/Election denier
5.4% Patriot/Patriotic
4.2% Dishonest/Liar
4.2% Trump Supporter/Trump
3.8% Honest
3.8% Corrupt/corruption/insider stock trading
3.2% Businessman/business
George Whitesides? Please write the word or words below. If you are not
sure, you can just write "Don't know" or skip this question.
7.9% Liberal
7.2% Democrat
6.3% NASA/Aerospace
4.2% Hope/hopeful
3.6% Intelligent
3.1% Moderate
3.1% Researching/learning more
3.1% Liar
47
election?
49.3% Very excited
1.9% Don’t know
15.0% Better
54.7% Worse
14.1% Better
65.3% Worse
23.7% Better
57.8% Worse
48
41.5% Christy Smith (Democrat)
49
TOPLINE RESULTS

(Ken Calvert/R v. Will Rollins/D)
Poll conducted,
N=539, MoE +/-4.2%
50
CA-41 (Riverside County/Palm Springs)
Ken Calvert/R inc. v. Will Rollins/D
51
CA-41. Ken Calvert [R-inc.] versus Will Rollins [D]


46.1% Ken Calvert (Republican)

46.1% Will Rollins (Democrat)
7.1% Don’t know


vote for?”

question
52


4.2% Don’t know

undecided leaners]

you vote for?”

53


4.9% Don’t know


54
CA-41 likely voters: What word or words come to mind when you think of Ken
Calvert? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you can
26.9% Corrupt/corruption/crook
13.9% Republican
11.1% Conservative
8.3% MAGA
7.4% Trump supporter
6.4% Dishonest/Liar
5.6% Honest
5.6% Old
5.6% Self serving
4.6% Experienced
3.7% Bigot/anti-gay
3.7%% Greedy
3.7% Better than a Democrat/Not a Democrat
55
CA-41 likely voters: What word or words come to mind when you think of Will
Rollins? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you can
12.6% Liberal/too liberal
11.2% Young/younger/fresh/new blood
9.7% Democrat
9.7% Honest/trustworthy
7.1% Progressive
4.1% Liar
4.1% Radical/radical left
3.7% Change
3.7% Fake/phony
3.3% Communist/socialist
3.3% Energetic/energy
3.3% Prosecutor
3.3% Smart/intelligent
election?
48.3% Very excited
2.2% Don’t know
19.3% Better
51.8% Worse
56
16.3% Better
64.2% Worse
29.0% Better
56.9% Worse
57
TOPLINE RESULTS

(Michelle Steel/R v.
Derek Tran/D)
Poll conducted,
N=498, MoE +/- 4.4%
58
CA-45 (Orange County)
Michelle Steel/R inc. v. Derek Tran/D
59
CA-45. Michelle Steel [R-inc.] versus Derek Tran [D]


44.8% Derek Tran (Democrat)

43.3% Michelle Steel (Republican)
11.3% Don’t know


vote for?”

question
60


7.7% Don’t know

undecided leaners]

you vote for?”

61


6.0% Don’t know
President/VP: Undecided CA-45 US president likely voters only: Even though you said
you didn't know who you plan to vote for in the US presidential election, if you were
forced to choose, who would you vote for? [asked only to those answering ‘Don’t know’
to above vote choice question to measure undecided leaners]


62
Michelle Steel? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you
17.9% Conservative
15.3% Republican
10.5% Dishonest/Liar/Untrustworthy
7.4% MAGA
4.7% Trump/Trump supporter
3.6% Anti-abortion/anti-choice/anti-women’s reproductive rights
3.6% Corrupt/Corruption
3.2% Far right
3.2% Honest/trustworthy
3.2% Pro-life
3.2% Racist/anti-Chinese
3.2% Self-serving/self-interested
Derek Tran? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you
15.0% Democrat
8.2% Progressive/Liberal
5.8% Honest/Trustworthy
4.8% Corrupt/Fraud
4.3% Veteran/War Vet/Soldier
3.8% Better than Michelle Steel/Not Michelle Steel
3.8% Moderate
3.8% Pro-choice/protect abortion/pro-reproductive rights
3.4% Communist/Socialist
3.4% Fake
63
election?
42.4% Very excited
3.3% Don’t know
16.3% Better
54.2% Worse
13.2% Better
63.3% Worse
22.3% Better
59.3% Worse
64
37.0% Jay Chen (Democrat)
65
TOPLINE RESULTS

(Scott Baugh/R v. Dave Min/D)
Poll conducted,
N=525, MoE +/- 4.3%
66
CA-47 (Orange County)
Scott Baugh/R v. Dave Min/D (open seat)
67
CA-47. Scott Baugh [R] versus Dave Min [D], open seat.

46.2% Scott Baugh (Republican)

42.5% Dave Min (Democrat)
10.1% Don’t know


vote for?”

question
68

All CA-47 likely voters: Thinking ahead to the 2024 November general
election, who do you plan to vote for to be US Senator?

7.3% Don’t know
CA-47 likely voters, only those undecided on US Senate: Even though you
said you didn't know who you plan to vote for in the US Senate election, if you
were forced to choose, who would you vote for? [asked only to those
answering ‘Don’t know’ to above vote choice question to measure undecided
leaners]

All CA-47 likely voters with undecided Senate leaners: Combining responses
to “Thinking ahead to the 2024 November general election, who do you plan
to vote for to be US Senator?” and “don’t know” leaners’ responses to branch
question “Even though you said you didn't know who you plan to vote for in
the US Senate election, if you were forced to choose, who would you vote
for?”

69


4.3% Don’t know


70
Scott Baugh? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you
15.2% Conservative
13.9% Republican
6.6% Corrupt/Crook/Violated campaign finance laws
5.3% Anti-abortion/against women’s reproductive rights
5.3% Dishonest/Liar/Untrustworthy
5.3% MAGA
4.6% Right wing/right winger
4.6% Strong
3.3% Expletives
3.3% Fentanyl/fighting fentanyl crisis
3.3% Honest
3.3% Lesser of two evils
3.3% Loser/has run and lost previous elections
3.3% Misogynist/anti-woman
71
Dave Min? Please write the word or words below. If you are not sure, you can
14.9% DUI/Drunk/Drunk driving/Drunk driver
13.5% Liberal/Left/Far left
10.6% Democrat
6.4% Intelligent
5.7% Politician/Typical politician
5.0% Honest/Honesty
4.3% Progressive
3.5% Crook
3.5% Dishonest/Liar
3.5% Hard working
3.5% Flawed
election?
40.3% Very excited
4.1% Don’t know
17.6 % Better
48.9% Worse
72
14.2% Better
61.9% Worse
25.5% Better
56.3% Worse
46.5% Katie Porter (Democrat)
73
CROSSTABS OF
DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS AND
OTHER SUBGROUPS IN EACH
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
LIKELY VOTERS
POLLS CONDUCTED,
74
Cross-tabs, US House election, likely voters in U.S. House district 12

Note: Rows do not sum to 100% due to rounding and because the option “I will skip this
election” is not displayed in the cross-tab tables below.
Thinking ahead to the 2024 November general election, who do you plan to vote for to be US
House Representative?
2024 House vote by respondent gender

Lateefah Don’t know, 2024
Simon (D) Jennifer Tran (D) House vote
Man 31.6% 19.7% 45.2%
Woman 22.6% 8.5% 67.2%
2024 House vote by respondent age

Age 18-39 35.0% 14.5% 50.5%
Age 40-60 25.8% 11.4% 58.4%
Age >60 21.8% 20.9% 53.8%
2024 House vote by respondent education

Four-year college degree and up 34.2% 12.4% 49.3%
Less than 4-year college degree 27.8% 15.0% 54.5%
2024 House vote by respondent income

<$50,000 25.1% 13.0% 61.4%
$50,000-$100,000 33.5% 9.7% 55.0%
>$100,000 27.0% 17.8% 51.7%
2024 House vote by respondent race/ethnicity

Asian 14.2% 20.4% 62.2%
Black 35.9% 8.6% 55.5%
Latino 23.2% 32.5% 44.3%
White 30.8% 10.4% 55.7%
75
2024 House vote by excited to vote in 2024 election

Very excited about election 26.6% 12.0% 58.1%
Somewhat excited about election 29.1% 16.0% 54.9%
Somewhat not excited about
election 16.5% 15.5% 66.4%
Very not excited about election 33.7% 20.3% 39.9%
2024 House vote by perceptions of local economic conditions getting better or worse?
Local economy better 34.1% 12.6% 50.1%
Local economy worse 18.4% 23.5% 55.5%
About the same 35.2% 10.6% 51.9%
2024 House vote by perceptions of state economic conditions getting better or worse?
State economy better 26.8% 14.8% 55.1%
State economy worse 25.7% 20.1% 51.2%
About the same 31.5% 12.1% 54.7%
2024 House vote by perceptions of national economic conditions getting better or worse?
National economy better 31.1% 13.6% 51.7%
National economy worse 20.7% 22.3% 54.8%
About the same 32.5% 8.1% 57.8%
2024 House vote by respondents’ 2024 US Senate choice

Adam Schiff (D) 30.3% 12.4% 55.6%
Steve Garvey (R) 9.3% 37.3% 39.9%
Don’t know 0.7% 24.2% 75.1%
2024 House vote by respondents’ 2024 US presidential/VP choice

Kamala Harris-Tim Walz (D) 31.1% 10.8% 56.5%
Donald Trump-J.D. Vance (R) 0.0% 51.3% 48.1%
Don’t know 23.0% 20.9% 56.0%
76
2024 House vote by respondents’ 2020 US presidential choice

Joe Biden (D) 28.5% 13.2% 55.3%
Donald Trump (R) 0.6% 24.4% 75.0%
Did not vote in 2020/don’t
remember vote 30.7% 26.6% 41.6%
2024 House vote by respondents’ 2022 US House choice

Barbara Lee, 2022 (D) 30.5% 12.8% 55.1%
Stephen Slauson, 2022 (R) 0.4% 34.8% 51.6%
remember vote 33.3% 16.7% 50.0%
77


Don’t know, 2024
John Duarte (R) Adam Gray (D) House vote
Man 53.0% 36.7% 9.8%
Woman 32.6% 51.4% 11.4%

Don’t know, 2024
Age 18-39 28.7% 43.0% 26.9%
Age 40-60 49.0% 38.7% 9.6%
Age >60 43.4% 47.5% 6.1%

Don’t know, 2024

Don’t know, 2024
<$50,000 40.0% 51.5% 6.7%
$50,000-$100,000 39.7% 48.4% 11.9%
>$100,000 43.6% 43.2% 12.5%

Don’t know, 2024
Asian 28.3% 32.1% 25.6%
Black 4.1% 91.8% 4.1%
Latino 37.1% 43.6% 18.0%
White 46.0% 43.9% 8.6%
78

Don’t know, 2024
election 44.2% 35.4% 20.5%
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 6.7% 86.6% 6.7%
Don’t know, 2024
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 8.3% 73.9% 12.6%

Don’t know, 2024
Adam Schiff (D) 3.0% 87.2% 6.2%
Steve Garvey (R) 88.5% 2.5% 7.7%
Don’t know 20.3% 24.1% 55.6%

Don’t know, 2024
Don’t know 33.8% 37.8% 28.4%
79

Don’t know, 2024
Joe Biden (D) 7.7% 79.8% 11.1%
Donald Trump (R) 83.8% 3.2% 8.5%
remember vote 49.6% 18.8% 31.2%

Don’t know, 2024
John Duarte, 2022 (R) 87.5% 2.2% 7.4%
Adam Gray, 2022 (D) 3.5% 91.5% 4.9%
remember vote 21.1% 33.6% 35.9%
80


Don’t know, 2024
Sam Liccardo (D) Evan Low (D) House vote
Man 35.1% 18.4% 38.8%
Woman 26.9% 22.6% 46.1%

Don’t know, 2024
Age 18-39 19.1% 17.6% 58.8%
Age 40-60 33.7% 26.8% 30.7%
Age >60 42.7% 14.1% 39.0%

Don’t know, 2024

Don’t know, 2024
<$50,000 34.7% 11.6% 53.7%
$50,000-$100,000 17.2% 24.4% 46.8%
>$100,000 34.1% 21.9% 38.5%

Don’t know, 2024
Asian 31.3% 25.6% 33.4%
Black 2.4% 95.6% 1.7%
Latino 26.4% 17.0% 45.3%
White 32.5% 18.7% 45.5%
81

Sam Evan Don’t know, 2024
Liccardo (D) Low (D) House vote
election 27.4% 15.4% 45.1%
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 32.0% 20.8% 39.6%
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 31.9% 28.1% 36.6%
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 33.2% 23.8% 41.7%

Don’t know, 2024
Adam Schiff (D) 32.1% 27.5% 39.2%
Steve Garvey (R) 33.7% 8.1% 38.9%
Don’t know 19.5% 2.3% 78.2%

Don’t know, 2024
Don’t know 30.0% 1.4% 68.4%
82

Don’t know, 2024
Joe Biden (D) 31.1% 25.6% 41.2%
Donald Trump (R) 31.7% 5.9% 41.0%
remember vote 31.6% 16.4% 51.8%

Don’t know, 2024
Anna Eshoo, 2022 (D) 31.7% 26.4% 40.1%
Rishi Kumar, 2022 (D) 45.4% 18.0% 34.3%
remember vote 9.9% 11.5% 58.0%
83


David Rudy Don’t know, 2024
Valadao (R) Salas (D) House vote
Man 46.0% 42.7% 10.3%
Woman 30.7% 46.9% 20.3%

Age 18-39 15.8% 61.4% 19.5%
Age 40-60 41.5% 40.6% 17.0%
Age >60 51.6% 36.9% 10.6%


<$50,000 28.8% 49.6% 18.1%
$50,000-$100,000 43.9% 41.2% 14.3%
>$100,000 46.7% 41.4% 10.7%

Asian 14.0% 74.1% 11.9%
Black 22.6% 18.7% 53.2%
Latino 26.6% 52.6% 19.1%
White 44.7% 41.6% 12.6%
84

election 23.6% 50.4% 25.9%
About the same 12.4% 74.4% 13.2%
About the same 17.7% 67.7% 14.6%

Adam Schiff (D) 6.1% 83.8% 10.1%
Steve Garvey (R) 81.1% 4.0% 12.4%
Don’t know 33.9% 19.9% 44.1%

Don’t know 44.6% 6.7% 42.6%
85

Joe Biden (D) 8.8% 77.3% 13.9%
Donald Trump (R) 82.5% 2.5% 13.3%
remember vote 25.5% 39.1% 25.9%

Rudy Salas, 2022 (D) 2.9% 91.6% 5.5%
David Valadao, 2022 (R) 80.8% 8.1% 8.7%
remember vote 24.4% 27.9% 44.9%
86


George Don’t know, 2024
Mike Garcia (R) Whitesides (D) House vote
Man 49.6% 39.7% 8.8%
Woman 35.0% 50.2% 12.4%

Age 18-39 29.5% 57.4% 13.1%
Age 40-60 48.0% 40.0% 10.6%
Age >60 42.7% 44.7% 9.6%


<$50,000 36.2% 48.9% 13.2%
$50,000-$100,000 33.1% 52.1% 13.8%
>$100,000 32.4% 40.9% 8.3%

Asian 32.8% 44.6% 14.6%
Black 25.7% 51.5% 22.8%
Latino 40.5% 48.8% 9.2%
White 46.5% 42.5% 9.5%
87

election 55.8% 24.6% 16.4%
About the same 14.6% 76.5% 7.5%
About the same 15.6% 66.8% 16.6%

Adam Schiff (D) 4.9% 86.4% 7.2%
Steve Garvey (R) 88.8% 3.1% 7.3%
Don’t know 26.5% 24.8% 44.6%

Don’t know 42.4% 16.0% 41.6%
88

Joe Biden (D) 8.9% 79.0% 10.4%
Donald Trump (R) 85.7% 3.6% 8.9%
remember vote 48.8% 26.5% 17.1%

Christy Smith, 2022 (D) 1.6% 90.9% 6.8%
Mike Garcia, 2022 (R) 86.7% 6.2% 6.7%
remember vote 17.9% 34.6% 34.8%
89


Don’t know, 2024
Ken Calvert (R) Will Rollins (D) House vote
Man 46.0% 47.6% 6.1%
Woman 46.3% 43.7% 8.9%

Don’t know, 2024
Age 18-39 48.6% 32.4% 19.1%
Age 40-60 57.9% 33.3% 6.5%
Age >60 53.1% 40.9% 6.1%

Don’t know, 2024

Don’t know, 2024
<$50,000 49.1% 45.0% 5.9%
$50,000-$100,000 40.0% 51.3% 7.9%
>$100,000 47.1% 46.9% 5.5%

Don’t know, 2024
Asian 44.2% 40.3% 15.4%
Black 36.6% 56.8% 6.6%
Latino 54.2% 36.7% 9.1%
White 43.2% 50.1% 6.4%
90

Don’t know, 2024
election 57.3% 27.1% 15.6%
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 26/5% 67.1% 6.3%
Don’t know, 2024
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 17.5% 78.4% 4.1%

Don’t know, 2024
Adam Schiff (D) 3.8% 93.9% 2.2%
Steve Garvey (R) 86.6% 8.9% 3.1%
Don’t know 28.2% 21.2% 50.6%

Don’t know, 2024
Don’t know 59.5% 5.8% 31.2%
91

Don’t know, 2024
Joe Biden (D) 4.2% 91.1% 4.6%
Donald Trump (R) 86.5% 5.0% 7.5%
remember vote 51.4% 17.9% 26.9%

Don’t know, 2024
Will Rollins, 2022 (D) 1.9% 96.2% 1.9%
Ken Calvert, 2022 (R) 90.4% 5.3% 4.4%
remember vote 31.8% 27.6% 35.4%
92


Don’t know, 2024
Michelle Steel (R) Derek Tran (D) House vote
Man 50.8% 39.1% 8.9%
Woman 33.9% 51.8% 14.3%

Don’t know, 2024
Age 18-39 27.0% 51.8% 21.2%
Age 40-60 44.2% 42.3% 12.3%
Age >60 47.6% 44.3% 7.6%

Don’t know, 2024

Don’t know, 2024
<$50,000 28.4% 57.3% 12.2%
$50,000-$100,000 38.4% 47.0% 13.6%
>$100,000 47.8% 43.7% 8.2%

Don’t know, 2024
Asian 39.4% 41.8% 17.7%
Black 30.9% 46.5% 22.6%
Latino 37.8% 49.9% 12.4%
White 45.1% 45.5% 8.6%
93

Michelle Don’t know, 2024
Steel (R) Derek Tran (D) House vote
election 48.5% 28.6% 22.9%
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 24.2% 63.8% 11.9%
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 12.2% 77.0% 10.8%
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 24.9% 62.9% 12.2%

Don’t know, 2024
Adam Schiff (D) 4.8% 86.3% 8.5%
Steve Garvey (R) 87.4% 1.7% 10.2%
Don’t know 48.1% 19.7% 32.2%

Don’t know, 2024
Don’t know 61.6% 15.5% 22.9%
94

Don’t know, 2024
Joe Biden (D) 6.3% 82.2% 11.0%
Donald Trump (R) 85.9% 3.3% 10.2%
remember vote 42.5% 36.3% 18.9%

Don’t know, 2024
Jay Chen, 2022 (D) 1.2% 92.8% 6.1%
Michelle Steel, 2022 (R) 91.6% 4.7% 3.0%
remember vote 23.9% 38.7% 35.5%
95


Don’t know, 2024
Scott Baugh (R) Dave Min (D) House vote
Man 53.4% 37.1% 9.0%
Woman 37.2% 49.2% 11.6%

Don’t know, 2024
Age 18-39 37.1% 45.4% 17.6%
Age 40-60 46.5% 39.6% 12.3%
Age >60 48.4% 43.6% 6.8%

Don’t know, 2024

Don’t know, 2024
<$50,000 44.2% 41.2% 14.7%
$50,000-$100,000 41.2% 49.6% 9.3%
>$100,000 46.7% 43.9% 8.2%

Don’t know, 2024
Asian 43.4% 34.5% 17.7%
Latino 43.8% 39.7% 16.5%
White 46.9% 45.3% 7.1%
96

Don’t know, 2024
Somewhat not excited about election 56.1% 28.9% 15.3%
Scott Baugh (R) Dave Min (D) Don’t know, 2024
House vote
About the same 25.8% 64.6% 9.5%
Scott Baugh (R) Dave Min (D) Don’t know, 2024
House vote
Don’t know, 2024
About the same 17.6% 69.8% 12.6%

Don’t know, 2024
Adam Schiff (D) 3.4% 87.9% 8.4%
Steve Garvey (R) 94.2% 1.7% 3.4%
Don’t know 22.5% 21.5% 56.0%

Don’t know, 2024
Don’t know 53.8% 18.8% 27.4%
97

Don’t know, 2024
Joe Biden (D) 9.5% 77.5% 11.7%
Donald Trump (R) 91.6% 2.2% 4.9%
remember vote 51.5% 18.7% 29.8%

Don’t know, 2024
Katie Porter (D), 2022 vote 4.6% 85.4% 9.4%
Scott Baugh (R), 2022 vote 93.9% 1.7% 4.5%
remember vote 31.7% 20.6% 38.7%
98
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at California State University,
Long Beach; the University of Southern California Dornsife School of Letters, Arts, and
Sciences; the USC Price School of Public Policy; and California Polytechnic University,
Pomona. We would like to thank Dean Deborah Thien of CSU Long Beach and Ty Kim of CSU
Long Beach for support for the poll. We also would like to thank Paul McQuiston, Nina Raffio,
Ileana Wachtel, Lance Ignon, and Christian Hetrick (all of USC) for support for the poll and
especially community engagement around the poll. Finally, we thank Professor Matt Lesenyie of
CSU Long Beach for writing and contributing questions to the survey. The polling and political
data firm Data Viewpoint conducted the survey and provided voter file data.
99
The California Elections and Policy Congressional Polls (CEPP) Research Team:
Raquel Centeno is a Ph.D. candidate in the Political Science and International

Relations department at the University of Southern California studying American
politics. Raquel specializes in the areas of public opinion, political psychology, Latino
politics, and political behavior. Her dissertation focuses on how partisan and racial
group identities jointly influence partisan polarization. Her other research is
motivated by questions of how voters' group identities impact their political
perceptions and behavior, such as how different primary systems influence political
behavior across racial and ethnic subgroups of voters. She has conducted multiple,
original surveys as part of her research. For more information on Raquel, please
visit https://racenteno.github.io/
Dr. Jarred Cuellar is an assistant professor of political science at the California State
Polytechnic University, Pomona. Dr. Cuellar's research focuses on American politics,
specifically Latino political behavior within the United States. He is a native of Los
Angeles County and was raised in Bellflower. His degrees include a BA from UC
Irvine, a MA from the University of Arkansas, and a PhD from USC. He has worked on
multiple polls and surveys; and earlier this year took his students on an experiential
learning visit to the 2024 Iowa caucus.
Dr. Christian R. Grose is Professor of Political Science and International Relations in

USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences and Professor of Public Policy at
the University of Southern California in the USC Price School of Public Policy. He is
the author of Congress in Black and White: Race and Representation in Washington
and at Home and over 60 articles and reports, including in the American Political
Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics;
and Legislative Studies Quarterly. He has conducted numerous surveys of the
California electorate, surveys of other states, and cities within California. His polls
have accurately predicted winners in state, local, and district elections and Dr. Grose’s polling is known
for its quality and accuracy, including his 2022 poll that correctly predicted the outcome of the Long
Beach mayoral election. He is originally from North Carolina, but has lived in California for more than
a decade. He can be reached at drchristiangrose@gmail.com or cgrose@usc.edu.
Dr. Matthew Mendez Garcia is Executive Director of the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at CSU
Long Beach, where he is also Associate Professor. The Center’s polling in collaboration with USC has
been remarkably accurate in previous elections. He is a native Californian who holds a Ph.D. in political
science from the University of Southern California. Professor Mendez studies American politics, with a
focus on representation, legislative behavior, race and ethnicity, political behavior, intersectionality, and
immigration. In 2016, he received the award for Best Dissertation from the American Political Science
Association’s Organized Section on Race, Ethnicity, and Politics. His research has been published in
journals such as Legislative Studies Quarterly, Political Research Quarterly, and California Journal of
Politics and Policy.
100

Poll On The 41st Congressional District

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California Elections & Policy Poll (CEPP) Center for Urban Politics and Policy, CSU Long Beach

September 14-21, 2024 University of Southern California

English-language media Inquiries: Please contact Dr. Christian Grose, at

Spanish-language media Inquiries: Please contact Jose Alcocer at alcocer@usc.edu

1. We polled six of the most competitive congressional districts between

Vote for Vote for

% Undecided Undecideds in district

4. Lateefah Simon and Sam Liccardo lead in potentially competitive Democrat-

Dem. Candidate Dem. Candidate Polling Lead*

5. When undecided voters are pushed to choose in Democrat-versus-Democrat

7. In CA-41, Republican Ken Calvert is the only incumbent underperforming the

8. CA-41 is shaping up as a race of extremity and personal characteristics. When

12. In CA-27 in northern Los Angeles County, Democrat George Whitesides is

14. CA-13 voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020 by almost 11 percentage

LIKELY VOTERS, CA-12

CA-12 (East Bay)

Lateefah Simon/D v. Jennifer Tran/D (open seat)

Source for district map: California Citizens Redistricting Commission.

CA-12. Lateefah Simon [D] versus Jennifer Tran [D]

All questions listed candidate choices in randomized order; and listed

US House election, likely voters in U.S. House district 12

27.9% Lateefah Simon (Democrat)

24.3% Lateefah Simon (Democrat)

US House: All likely voters with undecided leaners: Combining responses to

41.1% Lateefah Simon (Democrat)

US Senate election, likely voters in U.S. House district 12

80.7% Adam Schiff (Democrat)

US Senate: CA-12 likely voters, only those undecided on US Senate: Even

31.9% Adam Schiff (Democrat)

83.0% Adam Schiff (Democrat)

US presidential election, likely voters in U.S. House district 12

79.4% Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (Democrat)

59.2% Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (Democrat)

81.6% Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (Democrat)

LIKELY VOTERS, CA-13

CA-13 (San Joaquin Valley)

John Duarte/R v. Adam Gray/D

Source for district map: California Citizens Redistricting Commission.

CA-13. John Duarte [R-inc.] versus Adam Gray [D]

All questions listed candidate choices in randomized order; and listed

US House election, likely voters in U.S. House district 13

44.4% Adam Gray (Democrat)

17.9% Adam Gray (Democrat)

US House: All likely voters with undecided leaners: Combining responses to

46.3% Adam Gray (Democrat)

US Senate election, likely voters in U.S. House district 13

47.5% Adam Schiff (Democrat)

US Senate: CA-13 likely voters, only those undecided on US Senate: Even

13.6% Adam Schiff (Democrat)

48.5% Adam Schiff (Democrat)

US presidential election, likely voters in U.S. House district 13

47.3% Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (Democrat)

34.9% Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (Democrat)

49.5% Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (Democrat)

LIKELY VOTERS, CA-16

CA-16 (San Jose/South Bay)

Sam Liccardo/D v. Evan Low/D (open seat)

Source for district map: California Citizens Redistricting Commission.

CA-16. Sam Liccardo [D] versus Evan Low [D]