ICICIdirect MonthlyMFReport
ICICIdirect MonthlyMFReport
ICICIdirect MonthlyMFReport
Equity Market
Update
Indian equity markets after its continued uptrend and making new all-time
Monthly Report
in high in last week of the month of September, witnessed profit booking
during the month of October.
Nifty 50 index has seen a correction of around 6% from its recent highs while
Midcap and Smallcap indices are down by about 4% during similar period.
Prior to the recent correction, markets continued its upward trajectory and
continue to made new highs amidst volatility during last few months. Mid-
cap and Small-cap indices continue to outperform.
In last few months, markets have conquered volatility surrounding domestic
election results, geo-political tension, slowdown in China and have shown
remarkable resilience particularly the broader markets as represented by
smallcap and midcaps.
Global market also remain supportive helping the ongoing strong
undercurrent among domestic investors. Global markets particularly U.S.
markets continue to make new highs as interest rate cut cycle starts in U.S.
Markets are experiencing the heaviest selling pressure from FIIs since Covid
times. During the first half of the month itself, FIIs have sold nearly USD7.5 The tug-of-war is at play particularly in
Billion in equities while in March 2020, they have sold nearly USD8 Billion. If small caps where rich valuations is
Outlook
The market has been volatile over the last few weeks due to several events,
Research Analyst
including stimulus measures in China that affected flows to India, the
prolonged war in the Middle East, state elections, etc. The focus will now Sachin Jain
shift to the earnings for the September quarter. sachin.ja@icicisecurities.com
Debt Market
Update
Indian bond yields traded in a narrow range after being pushed down to
6.72% on the benchmark 10-year paper during the month of September.
Bond yields earlier continue to drift down slowly and gradually in the run up
to the first U.S. Fed rate-cut which ultimately materialised on September
18th, 2024.
RBI as expected maintained the status quo on rates and changed its liquidity FTSE recently said it will add India to its
stance to “neutral” from “withdrawal of accommodation”. RBI emerging markets government bond index
acknowledged improved outlook for inflation on good kharif sowing, from September 2025. FTSE Russell is the
third index provider to include Indian bonds
adequate buffer stocks, and good soil moisture conditions which are in its emerging market bond index after
conducive for rabi sowing due to better monsoon and crop output while core JPMorgan and Bloomberg Index Services.
inflation is expected to be broadly contained. While the guidance for FY25 AUM of this index is at USD 4.7 trillion.
is maintained at 4.5%, medium term inflation for Q4FY25/Q1FY26 is reduced Indian bonds will represent 9.35% of the
index. Inclusion will be phased-in on a
by 10bps at 4.2%/4.3%. monthly basis over a six-month period in
Barring last few days, foreign investors have been consistent buyers in six equal tranches. The inflows expectation
is around USD4-5 billion over a period of
Indian debt market since the announcement of the inclusion of Indian bonds six months
in global bond indices in September 2023.
Outlook
RBI in its latest monetary policy meeting has taken a first step towards the
rate cut cycle by changing the liquidity stance to “neutral” from “withdrawal
of accommodation.
Argument in favour of a rate cut in December:
❖ Many market participants have started factoring in a rate cut in
December citing RBI GDP growth projection is on a higher side and
high frequency data is coming weak and RBI will acknowledge that
in its next meeting.
❖ By next policy, one more rate cut from U.S Fed would have
happened.
❖ With core inflation at 3.4%, Food inflation which has averaged
above 7.5% was the only concern. Better monsoons and showing
has improved the outlook significantly and now RBI can easily take
a benign view on all inflation components.
Argument against rate cut in December:
❖ There is no urgency to front load the rate cut to support growth and
in fact RBI continue to cite concerns over bank credit flow towards
unsecured segment.
❖ Inflation for FY25 is still pegged at 4.5%, 50bps above target.
❖ Rate cut cycle in India is going to be very shallow (75bps in 3
meetings). No need to immediately match US Fed as US rate cut
cycle is going to be very long (8 rate-cut meeting still left assuming
further 200bps rate cut of 25bps each)
Debt market will now start focusing on the terminal rate rather than the
timing of the first rate cut (in December or February) and accordingly will
move lower albeit with volatility surrounding global (U.S.) bond yield
movement. Yields are already down 45-50 bps in 2024 discounting 50bps
rate cut. Once the rate cut starts, 10-year will move towards 6.50% from the
current 6.75% discounting 75bps cut.
Industry Synopsis
Inflows into equity schemes continue to remain strong though declined
marginally during the month of September 2024. The month of September
saw ex-NFO inflows at ₹24500 crore as compared to ₹27200 crore in
August 2024. Inflows saw marginal decline, as equity markets continue to
trend upwards during most part of the month of September. Inflows
including NFOs were at ₹34400 crore as compared to ₹38200 crore in
August 2024.
The year 2024 has witnessed significantly higher inflows since the start of
the calendar year. Inflows in the first nine months of the year from January
till September 2024 has touched ₹2.75 lakh crore. Inflows received in the
calendar year 2023 was at ₹1.6 lakh crore. Ex-NFOs, monthly average
inflows in CY2024 is 2x at Rs 22500 crore Vs 2023 average of Rs 10400
crore.
The month of September 2024 saw the total industry AUM risen to ₹67.1
lakh crore as compared to ₹66.7 lakh crore in August 2024. The rise in AUM
was attributed to both inflows and mark to market gains in equity markets.
The AUM of equity schemes has grown 63% in last one year and stands at
₹31.1 lakh crore.
Sectoral Funds continue to witness higher inflows on the back of continuous
Small and Midcap funds continue witness
NFOs. In September, including NFOs, flows were at ₹13300 crore Vs ₹18100
higher inflows despite sharp run-up as
crore in August. investors continue to chase higher returns.
Smallcap and midcap funds continue to attract higher inflows at ₹3100 The trend of NFOs in thematic funds
each. Largecap funds saw change in trend with higher inflows since last 2 continue.
months with inflows in September at ₹1800 crore.
SIP inflows continue to rise at ₹24509 crore Vs ₹23547 crore. One year
before (September 2023), SIP inflow was ₹16420 crore, a rise of 49% rise
YoY.
901179
199701
564982
100%
481841
321862
780166
378541
351965
59% 187265
1100000
79%
72%
80%
64%
64%
900000
58%
49%
60%
48%
46%
45%
₹ crore
700000
42%
32%
30%
40%
28%
26%
26%
500000
21%
24%
20%
20%
19%
16%
14%
13%
20% 300000
9%
9%
9%
8%
6%
4%
0% 100000
ICICI Pru
Mirae
Nippon Life
SBI
DSP
Axis
HDFC
Kotak
Birla
UTI
Exhibit 2: Many of the funds which outperformed in last few years seen underperforming in last 6 months
Category: Large Cap Fund Absolute Return Rank
Scheme Name 2020 2021 2022 2023 6 Months 2020 2021 2022 2023 6 Months
Motilal Oswal Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) - - - - 24.8 - - - - 1
DSP Top 100 Equity Fund-Reg(G) 7.5 19.5 1.4 26.6 19.3 23 25 17 9 2
Invesco India Largecap Fund(G) 14.0 32.5 -3.0 27.8 18.7 13 3 26 5 3
Bandhan Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 17.4 26.8 -2.3 26.8 18.0 5 14 25 8 4
WOC Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) - - - 23.2 17.8 - - - 15 5
Aditya Birla SL Frontline Equity Fund(G) 14.2 27.9 3.5 23.1 17.5 12 10 9 16 6
Franklin India Bluechip Fund(G) 13.6 32.8 -2.2 21.7 17.3 16 1 24 24 7
Kotak Bluechip Fund(IDCW) 16.3 27.7 2.0 22.9 17.1 8 11 13 17 8
LIC MF Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 13.8 23.8 -1.6 16.9 16.5 14 17 22 30 9
Canara Rob Bluechip Equity Fund-Reg(G) 23.0 24.5 0.8 22.2 16.5 1 16 18 21 10
SBI BlueChip Fund-Reg(G) 16.3 26.1 4.4 22.6 16.4 9 15 6 18 11
HSBC Large Cap Fund(G) 15.8 22.7 0.5 23.5 16.3 10 20 19 14 12
Baroda BNP Paribas Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 16.8 22.1 4.2 24.8 16.3 7 21 7 11 13
Mirae Asset Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 13.7 27.7 1.6 18.4 16.0 15 12 15 28 14
Edelweiss Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 17.2 23.4 3.4 25.7 15.1 6 18 11 10 15
UTI Large Cap Fund-Reg(IDCW) 18.6 29.6 -1.8 20.8 15.0 3 6 23 26 16
ICICI Pru Bluechip Fund(G) 13.4 29.2 6.9 27.4 14.5 17 7 3 6 17
Nippon India Large Cap Fund(G) 4.9 32.4 11.3 32.1 14.4 25 4 1 1 18
Tata Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 8.3 32.7 3.3 24.5 13.8 21 2 12 12 19
Taurus Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 10.1 18.0 6.7 21.8 13.7 20 26 4 23 20
JM Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 18.1 23.2 3.4 29.6 13.6 4 19 10 4 21
HDFC Top 100 Fund(G) 5.9 28.5 10.6 30.0 13.5 24 9 2 2 22
Groww Largecap Fund-Reg(G) 8.1 17.5 4.4 22.3 13.0 22 27 5 19 23
Mahindra Manulife Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 11.9 29.7 1.9 21.9 12.6 19 5 14 22 24
Sundaram Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) 27.5 4.0 21.1 12.5 13 8 25 25
Axis Bluechip Fund-Reg(G) 19.7 20.6 -5.7 17.4 12.2 2 24 28 29 26
PGIM India Large Cap Fund(G) 13.3 21.0 1.5 19.7 11.6 18 23 16 27 27
Union Largecap Fund-Reg(G) 15.0 28.6 -0.5 22.3 10.3 11 8 21 20 28
ITI Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) - 21.4 -0.2 23.9 10.3 - 22 20 13 29
Bank of India Bluechip Fund-Reg(G) - - -3.0 29.8 10.0 - - 27 3 30
Quant Large Cap Fund-Reg(G) - - - 26.8 8.2 - - - 7 31
Source: ACE MF. Returns as on 15th October 2024
Exhibit 5: Pharma funds bounced back to outperform along with IT funds. Infrastructure funds underperform on profit booking.
Largecap funds continue to underperform.
60
50
40
Returns (%)
30
20
10
0
Consumption Funds
Midcap
Infra
Small Cap
Pharma Funds
Banking Funds
ELSS
Focused Funds
IT Funds
Large Cap
Flexicap
International Equities
3 Nifty 50 Equal Weight ETF DSP Nifty 50 Equal Weight ETF 220
4 Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight ETF DSP Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight ETF 99
6 Nifty 100 Low Vol 30 ETF ICICI Pru Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF 3588
7 S&P BSE Low Volatility ETF Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Low Volatility ETF 87
8 Nifty Alpha Low Vol 30 ETF ICICI Pru Alpha Low Vol 30 ETF 1549
10 Nifty 200 Quality 30 ETF SBI Nifty 200 Quality 30 ETF 122
11 S&P BSE Quality ETF Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Quality ETF 19
12 Nifty 200 Momentum 30 ETF ICICI Pru Nifty 200 Momentum 30 ETF 305
13 Nifty Next 50 ETF Nippon India ETF Nifty Next 50 Junior BeES 5698
20 Nifty Midcap 150 Nippon India ETF Nifty Midcap 150 1752
21 Midcap Select ETF ICICI Pru S&P BSE Midcap Select ETF 76
22 Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 ETF DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 ETF 103
23 Nifty Smallcap 250 Momentum Quality 100 Mirae Asset Nifty Smallcap 250 Momentum Quality 100 ETF 357
Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF HDFC NIFTY Smallcap 250 ETF 530
24 S&P BSE 500 ETF ICICI Pru S&P BSE 500 ETF 303
26 Nifty 200 Alpha 30 ETF Mirae Asset Nifty 200 Alpha 30 ETF 305
Nifty 500 Momentum 50 ETF Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 Momentum 50 ETF 11
28 PSU Bank ETF Nippon India ETF Nifty PSU Bank BeES 2475
29 Private Bank ETF ICICI Pru Nifty Private Bank ETF 2570
30 Financial Services ETF Mirae Asset Nifty Financial Services ETF 299
31 Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank ICICI Pru Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank ETF 92
SBI-ETF IT 118
37 Nifty 100 ESG Sector Leaders ETF Mirae Asset Nifty 100 ESG Sector Leaders ETF 136
VI Debt ETFs
Nippon India ETF Nifty 8-13 yr G-Sec Long Term Gilt 2222
Source: ACE MF. AUM as on September 2024. In Sensex and Nifty ETFs, SBI and UTI AMC has higher AUM but dominated by institutional flows.
Nifty 100 ETF -1.5 1.6 14.5 33.2 12.5 18.3 13.8
Nifty 200 Quality 30 ETF -1.9 4.9 24.0 39.7 14.9 20.0 -
Nifty 100 Low Vol 30 ETF -2.4 4.6 17.1 37.6 15.4 19.8 -
Nifty Alpha Low Vol 30 ETF -1.0 3.4 16.7 51.5 19.0 -
Nifty Next 50 ETF 0.2 2.5 22.2 67.3 20.0 23.3 17.2
Nifty Dividend Opportunities 50 ETF -1.4 2.3 18.4 47.8 22.4 24.1 15.6
Midcap 100 ETF -1.3 3.2 21.2 47.3 22.9 31.2 18.7
Nifty Midcap 150 ETF -0.9 3.0 21.2 46.1 22.8 31.3 -
S&P BSE 500 ETF -1.4 1.9 16.2 36.4 15.2 21.5 -
Sector/Thematic/Global ETFs
PSU Bank ETF -1.5 -10.7 -4.5 30.4 35.4 25.3 6.9
Nifty Bank ETF -0.7 -0.9 9.9 17.9 10.3 12.8 13.0
Nifty Pvt Bank ETF -1.7 -1.1 9.2 12.6 8.6 10.1 -
Nifty India Consumption ETF -0.7 7.9 22.8 44.9 18.6 20.8 15.8
Nifty Infrastructure ETF -1.3 -1.0 10.8 45.8 20.4 23.3 12.4
Nifty 100 ESG Sector Leaders ETF -1.7 2.4 14.7 30.4 10.9 - -
Nifty 50 Shariah ETF -3.3 4.4 20.4 31.2 8.6 17.5 12.5
Hang Seng ETF 16.7 16.1 30.0 20.7 -0.5 0.4 4.3
Nasdaq 100 ETF 4.0 -0.6 14.5 34.1 15.0 24.4 21.7
Commodities ETFs
Hybrid funds
The hybrid funds category is dominated by aggressive hybrid funds
(erstwhile balanced funds) and balanced advantage or dynamic asset
allocation funds.
The trend of outflow continued in the aggressive hybrid category. The
category has witnessed consistent outflows in the last many months.
Balanced Advantage Funds or Dynamic Asset Allocation category have
been witnessing consistent inflows in the last few years as many investors
prefer to invest in dynamically managed equity funds due to higher equity
levels. The category has grown significantly over the last few years and
AUM of the category is currently around ₹ 3.0 lakh crore.
Arbitrage funds, as a category, have been popular among investors for
parking money temporarily in a tax efficient manner.
Exhibit 8: Flows have improved in BAFs since last 6 months Exhibit 9: BAFs AUM near 2.9 lakh crore
Inflow/(Outflow)
Hybrid Category AUM
4000
during Sep 2024
Dynamic Asset Allocation/Balanced Advantage 1,704 2,89,102
Balanced Hybrid Fund/Aggressive Hybrid Fund 516 2,29,297
Net Inflow ₹ Cr )
2000
Arbitrage Fund (3,532) 1,89,863
Multi Asset Allocation 4,070 98,516
0
Equity Savings 2,269 39,546
Conservative Hybrid Fund (126) 28,575
-2000 Source: ACE MF
Sep-22
Sep-23
Sep-24
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Mar-23
Mar-24
Debt Funds
Exhibit 10: Duration funds continue to outperform as yields continue to swift downwards
16
14.0
13.0
12.5
14
12.0
12.0
11.7
11.5
11.3
11.0
10.7
10.7
10.7
12
10.3
10.0
9.9
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.2
9.1
9.1
8.9
8.9
10
8.8
8.7
Annualised Returns (%)
8.7
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.2
7.7
7.5
7.4
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.0
6.9
8
6.9
6.9
6.8
4
Medium to Long
Floater
Low Duration
Dynamic Bond
Ultra Short
Corporate Bond
Liquid
Gilt Funds
Short Duration
Long Duration
Money Market
Banking and PSU
10 year Gilt
Medium Duration
Credit Risk
Duration
Duration
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