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Day 1 Notesheet

Stats

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19 views

Day 1 Notesheet

Stats

Uploaded by

252732
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 3

Name: _________________

AP Statistics Handout: Lesson 4.1


Topics: sample vs. population, biased sampling, simple random samples (SRS)

Lesson 4.1 Guided Notes


Sample vs. Population

Census: when you collect data on every individual in the _______________________.

Sample: a _____________ of individuals from a population.

Population
It’s hard to measure everyone (population), so we take a sample
Sample and make ____________________ about the population.

Graphic courtesy of the National Center for Education Statistics

Biased Sampling

Example: Investigating College Advertisement Statistics

SW Tennessee Community College: The homepage of their website boasts: “Our overall graduation
placement rate is ______, with 91% working in their field of study.” - www.southwest.tn.edu (6/9/2020)

Population

Sample à _________

Among full-time, first-time degree or certificate-seeking students


who entered in 2010/2011, Source: IPEDS (2020)

Bias: a study flaw that leads to _______________________ and/or inaccurate estimates.

Undercoverage: When part of the population has a __________________ of being included in a sample.
-Leads to bias.
-Ex: excluding the students who didn’t graduate.

Material adapted from the Skew The Script curriculum (skewthescript.org)


Lessons made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0)
2

Rogers State University (Oklahoma): In a recent report*, the University found that about 75% of
graduates were pursuing another degree or had found full-time employment by their final semester.
The same report shows that the response rate to the University’s questions/surveys was only 20%.

Nonresponse: When individuals chosen for a sample don’t respond.


-Leads to bias if these individuals ___________ from respondents.

Population

Sample à _______________

Grads without jobs probably


respond _______________.

*Employment and Continuing Education for Graduating Students 2017-2019 AY 3-Year Aggregation
(downloaded 6/9/2020 from https://www.rsu.edu/about/accountability-academics/student-outcomes/)

Question: How could bias in the sampling method have affected the graduate study/employment rate
estimate from Rogers State University?

When writing about sampling bias…


1. Identify the population and the sample
2. Explain how the sampled individuals might __________________ the general population
3. Explain how this leads to an _________________________________.

Model Response:
“Graduates who didn’t find post-grad employment may be ashamed, making them ______________ to
respond to the survey. Therefore, this sampling method may include a lower proportion of unemployed
graduates than in the full population. This produces an _________________ of the true percentage of
_____ graduates who are actually starting full-time work.”

Important: These categories of bias can overlap. On an FRQ, if you’re unsure,


Types of selection bias ________ try to use one of these vocab terms. Instead, just describe the bias,
-Undercoverage bias how it arises, and whether it leads to an under or overestimate.
-Nonresponse bias
-Voluntary response bias: Occurs when a sample is composed of _______________, who may differ
from individuals who don’t choose to volunteer.
Ex: You want to study heart rate during exercise. You recruit volunteers to run a mile and then
measure their pulse. The few insane people in our society who actually like to run are the ones
who volunteer, so they’re healthier on average than the population à bias

Types of survey bias


-Question wording bias: When survey questions are confusing or leading.
Ex: “Which show do you prefer: Diners, Drive-In, and Dives, hosted by the incredibly talented,
funny, and interminable mayor of Flavortown / chef Guy Fieri or Iron Chef hosted by the boring
Alton Brown?
-Self-reported response bias: When individuals inaccurately report their own traits.
Ex: I report being able to bench-press 350 lbs.

Material adapted from the Skew The Script curriculum (skewthescript.org)


Lessons made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0)
3

Simple Random Samples (SRS)

In order to avoid bias, you must _____________ sample.

Simple Random Sample (SRS): a sampling method in which every possible group of individuals in the
population has an __________________ of being selected.

Example: COVID-19 and Sampling


When COVID-19 spread to NYC, the city only provided tests to people who ____________________.
Some infected people don’t show symptoms. So, the sampling method led to an ________________ of
the number of people infected. It was __________.

Instead: We could have ______________________ the NYC population, tested those who were
sampled, and gotten an __________________ of the number of people infected.

Question: Describe how you would implement a simple random sample (SRS) of 1,000 NYC residents to
test for COVID.

When describing how to perform an SRS:


1. Assign each individual in the population a number 1 – N (population size).
2. Use a random number generator to obtain n (sample size) numbers, skipping repeats.
3. Sample the individuals whose numbers were generated

Model Response:
“Assign every individual in NYC an integer _______ (where N is the population size of NYC). Use a
random number generator to obtain 1,000 integers between 1 – N, __________________________.
Administer the COVID test to the 1,000 individuals whose numbers were selected.”

Lesson 4.1 Discussion


Discussion Question: During World War II, a statistician by the name of Abraham Wald was asked to
help the British air force decide where to put extra armor on their planes. They gave him charts of the
bullet holes in planes that were wounded in fighting but made it back safely to England. An example is
shown below, with each dot representing places hit by bullets.

Using the chart, on what part of a new plane would you


recommend they put extra armor? Choose from the
options below and give a statistical reason for your choice.
Options: A)Nose B)Wings C)Body D)Engine E)Tail

Image courtesy of Professor Joseph Blitzstein (i.e. the best stats prof in the country).
See his “Harvard Thinks Big” talk on this problem: https://youtu.be/dzFf3r1yph8

Material adapted from the Skew The Script curriculum (skewthescript.org)


Lessons made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0)

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