Hero Model - Equivalue 2
Hero Model - Equivalue 2
Hero Model - Equivalue 2
#N/A
BVPS 0 0
P/BV #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
P/BV
Target Price
EV EBITDA
FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E
29,551 32,506 35,757 39,333 43,266 47,593
-5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
555.01 0 0 0 0 0
The notes referred to above form an integral part of the consolidated financials
statements
Non-current assets
(a) Property, plant and equipment #DIV/0!
(b) Capital work-in-progress #DIV/0!
(c) Intangible assets #DIV/0!
(d) Intangible assets under development #DIV/0!
(e) Equity accounted investments in associates #DIV/0!
(f) Financial assets #DIV/0!
(i) Investments #DIV/0!
(ii) Loans #DIV/0!
(iii) Others #DIV/0!
(g) Income tax assets (net) #DIV/0!
(h) Other non-current assets #DIV/0!
Total Non - Current Assets #DIV/0!
Current assets #DIV/0!
(a) Inventories #DIV/0!
(b) Financial assets #DIV/0!
(i) Investments #DIV/0!
(ii) Trade receivables #DIV/0!
(iii) Cash and cash equivalents #DIV/0!
(iv) Bank balances other than (iii) above #DIV/0!
(v) Loans #DIV/0!
(vi) Others #DIV/0!
(c) Other current assets #DIV/0!
Total Current Assets #DIV/0!
Total assets #DIV/0!
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES #DIV/0!
Equity #DIV/0!
(a) Equity share capital #DIV/0!
(b) Other equity #DIV/0!
Total Equity attributable to owners of the Company #DIV/0!
Non-controlling interests #DIV/0!
Total Equity #DIV/0!
Liabilities #DIV/0!
Non-current liabilities #DIV/0!
(a) Financial liabilities #DIV/0!
(i) Borrowings #DIV/0!
(b) Provisions #DIV/0!
(c) Deferred tax liabilities (net) #DIV/0!
Total Non - Current Liabilities #DIV/0!
Current liabilities #DIV/0!
(a) Financial liabilities #DIV/0!
(i) Borrowings #DIV/0!
(ii) Trade payables #DIV/0!
(iii) Other financial liabilities #DIV/0!
(b) Other current liabilities #DIV/0!
(c) Provisions #DIV/0!
Total Current Liabilities #DIV/0!
Total Equity and Liabilities #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
- - - - - - -
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E
40 40 40 40 40 40 40
14,366 15,376 15,807 16,667 17,895 19,532 21,628
14,406 15,416 15,847 16,707 17,935 19,572 21,668
141 143 148 148 148 148 148
14,547 15,560 15,995 16,855 18,083 19,720 21,816
44.02 45 36.17 51 66 81 96
207.62 212 215.51 215.51 215.51 215.51 215.51
1.35 146 155.04 155.04 155.04 155.04 155.04
123.9 176 181.13 181.13 181.13 181.13 181.13
472.58 453 378.21 378.21 378.21 378.21 378.21
849.47 1031.95 966 981 996 1,011 1,026
24,223
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #REF!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! Niveditha
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! Equity
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! Total Capital
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! Profit
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #REF! ROCE
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
-
FY27E
3,890 FY22
149 Opening balance 5,551
518 Add: Capex 493
321 Less: Sold
368 Less: Dep 690
2,203 Closing 5,354
2,455
17
42
358
120 Step 1 Clone the balance sheet
10,442 Step 2 Link balance sheet cash with Cash flow ending balance
Step 3 Make a other equtiy schedule
2,519
5,870
3,521
11,203
119
23
475
273
24,003
34,445
40
24,234
24,274
148
24,422
1,000,000 150,000
111
215.51
155.04 100000 100000 100000
181.13
378.21
1,041
20.8
567
36.18
7,557
145.58
496.32
179.15
8,982
34,445
Rishabh
100,000.00 Equity 50000
Debt 50000
100,000.00 100,000
10000 Profit 10000
Interest 5000
PAT 5000
10%
5%
EBIT
100000 100000 100000 100000
T/Average Equity
5%
Predict cash flow from FY22 FY18
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Profit after tax and share in profit/(loss) of associates
Adjustments for:
Add: Depreciation and amortisation expense
Tax expense
Loss on property, plant and equipments sold/discarded
Finance cost
Employee Stock Compensation Cost
Loss allowance on trade receivables
Less: Interest income on financial assets carried at amortised cost
Dividend income
Profit on sale of investments
Gain on investments carried at fair value through profit or loss
Share of profit in associates
Profit on sale of property, plant and equipments
Foreign currency translation (net)
Operating profit before working capital changes
Changes in working capital:
Adjustment for (increase)/decrease in operating assets:
Inventories
Trade receivables
Loans–Current
Loans–Non-Current
Other financial assets
Other current assets
Other non-current assets
Dividend Payout Ratio 62% 60% 65% 82% 69% 61% 54%
Dividend Per Share 100 100 100 100 95 95 95
Number of shares 19.975 19.975 19.98 19.98 19.98 19.98 19.98
Tax on dividend
Tax
FY26E FY27E
19,532 21,628
3,994 4,504
1,898 1,898
21,628 24,234
48% 42%
95 95
19.98 19.98
FY18 FY19 FY20
Gross Block
Opening
ADD: Capex
Less Sold
Other
Closing
Depreciation
Opening
Add: Dep for the year
Disposal
Others
Accumualted Depreciation
Depreciaiton rate
FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E
sales /Asset
3 1
Asset t/o
Opening 1000 5400
ADD: Capex 5000 1000
Less Sold 0
Less: dep 600 640
Closing 5400 5760
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Short Term
Opening Balance 317 367 417
Add 100 100 100
Repayment 50 50 50
Closing Balance 184 166 285 317 367 417 467
Long Term
Opening Balance 125 44 45 36 51 66
Add 50 50 50 50 50 50
Repayment 35 35 35 35 35 35
Closing Balance 125 44 45 36 51 66 81
Interest 37 47 46 53 63 73 82
Interest Rate/ Cost of debt 12% 18% 17% 16% 15% 15% 15%
467 517
100 100
50 50
517 567
81 96
50 50
35 35
96 111
613 678
92 102
15% 15%
Working Capital FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E
Net Sales 33,971 29,254 30,959 29,551 32,506
COGS 23,444 19,831 21,744 20,920 22,429
Purchases/Sales 23,444 19,831 21,744 20,920 22,429
Days of sales
Turnover Ratios
Debtors T/o
Inventory T/o
Payables T/o
Days
Days of Receivables 22 27 22 27 27
Days of Inventory 17 23 26 28 28
Days of Payable 53 60 70 84 84
Cash conversion Cycle -13 -11 -22 -28 -29
FY24E FY25E FY26E FY27E
35,757 39,333 43,266 47,593
24,672 27,140 29,854 32,839
24,672 27,140 29,854 32,839
27 27 27 27
28 28 28 28
84 84 84 84
-29 -29 -29 -29
No of Units Sold
Domestic Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19
Maestro 3,407 13,423 10,012 11,922
Destini 16,301 16,752 11,292 11,158
Pleasure 10,689 9,020 8,474 17,629
Duet
Achiever - - - -
Hunk
HF Deluxe 182,029 183,255 193,194 169,632
Passion 59,138 69,663 56,143 43,439
Splendor 223,532 199,225 177,413 130,333
Super Splendor - - 65,330 -
Glamour 67,829 69,379 69,878 71,160
X Pulse 200T
Xpulse 200 0 1026 2674 2530
Xtreme 1,633 1,536 837 426
Total Domestic 564,558 563,279 595,247 458,229
Motorcycles
Scooters
Revenue Domestic
Maestro
Dsetini
Pleasure
Duet
Achiever
Hunk
HF Deluxe
Passion
Splendor
Super Splendor
Glamour
X Pulse 200T
Xpulse 200
Xtreme
Total Revenue
Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan'20 Feb'20
12,724 14,191 11,807 7,143 3,608 656 2,102
9,735 9,982 10,371 7,744 3,388 394 7,304
16,308 20,425 16,347 18,474 11,391 4,239 8,435
- - - - - - -
462,352
17,841
65000
68000
62000
48000
66000
70000
55000
65000
68000
72000
75000
105000
100000
105000
Mar'20 April'20 May'20 June'20 July'20 Aug'20 Sep'20
3,538 - - 5,701 6,201 8,521 14,029
9,523 - - 12,475 13,184 13,609 19,644
13,898 - - 15,012 16,290 16,935 20,068
- - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - -
114,969 - 24,830 129,602 154,142 177,168 216,201
17,937 - 13,436 39,900 44,377 52,471 63,296
101,541 - 32,879 127,802 159,480 177,811 215,873
42,195 - 9,119 52,464 53,933 54,490 64,377
12,713 - 22,640 45,252 51,225 54,315 69,477
- - - - - -
20 - - - 1,475 1,317 1,398
194 - - - - - 12,930
316,528 - 102,904 428,208 500,307 556,637 697,293
Oct'20 Nov'20 Dec'20 Jan'21A Feb'21A Mar'21A April'21
23,240 12,412 3,911 6,388 5,899 6,629 6,000
26,714 15,515 5,789 9,484 12,031 13,520 12,000
23,392 19,707 19,090 18,603 23,106 25,965 23,000
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
233,061 179,426 141,168 134,860 126,309 141,937 130,000
75,540 53,768 36,624 43,162 34,417 38,675 35,000
243,407 197,899 163,845 188,157 213,146 239,518 210,000
72,391 50,499 31,085 37,225 34,276 38,517 34,000
78,439 39,899 19,238 22,681 27,375 30,762 27,000
- - - - - - -
2,473 1,372 1,018 1,750 2,861 3,215 2,800
12,480 5,460 3,265 5,443 4,985 5,602 5,000
791,137 575,957 425,033 467,753 484,405 544,340 484,800
1,008,400 4,124,150
123,000 492,000
7103 28187
7583 29937
Cost of equity 15%
Equity Capital
Face Value
No Of Shares
(a) Basic
(b) Diluted
The notes referred to above form an integral part of the consolidated
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
40 40 40 40 40
2 2 2 2 2
20 20 20 20 20
174 183 147 116 85
Profit & Loss Statement
FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Sales 10,000,000 20,000,000 50,000,000 55,000,000
COGS / Direct/ Raw material
cost 5,000,000 10,000,000 25,000,000 27,500,000
% of total cost 50% 50% 50% 50%
Gross Profit 5,000,000 10,000,000 25,000,000 27,500,000
Gross Margins 50% 50% 50% 50%
Employee exp 100,000 110,000 121,000 133,100
YoY Growth 10% 10% 10%
Other Expenses 500,000 1,000,000 2,500,000 2,750,000
% of sales 5.00% 5% 5% 5%
Operating Profit/ EBITDA 4,400,000 8,890,000 22,379,000 24,616,900
EBITDA margins 44.0% 44.5% 44.8% 44.8%
Depreciation 200,000 300,000 302,000 301,200
EBIT 4,200,000 8,590,000 22,077,000 24,315,700
Interest 100,000 300,000 500,000 700,000
Other Income 0 0 0 0
EBT 4,100,000 8,290,000 21,577,000 23,615,700
Tax 1,230,000 2,487,000 6,473,100 7,084,710
Tax rate 30% 30% 30% 30%
PAT 2,870,000 5,803,000 15,103,900 16,530,990
29% 29% 30% 30%
Face Value 1
500%
Full Year
Opening
Purhcase 30
Sold 25
End of day 5
Inventory T/o 5
Liabilities FY22
Sources of Funds
100% Equity Capital 10,000,000
P&L PAT
Crl + { BS Other
30,000 CF Fin
Understated by 1000
P&L
BS
CF CF
Pat
Dep 1000
PAT -600
R&S -600
PPE -1000
Cash 400
10 3
15%
20 40
Ending 1 1.972602739726 0.972602739726027
20 20
Cash At bank
PPE, Net
Depreciation rate
P&L
BS
CF
Opening balance
Add: Capex
Sold:
Less: Depreciation
Closing
SLM
WDV
Useful
SLM
Sales
COGS
Sales
Receivables
Inventories
Payables
Receivable t/o
Inventory t/o
Payables t/o
DOR
DOI
X Inventories DOP
Operating Cycle
Stand Alone
Tata Motors
Sales Car
Buses
Trucks
10,000
FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
FY22 FY23E
0 2,500,000
5,000,000
2,500,000
2,500,000
PAT Decrease
ASSet Reduceds R&S Decrease
Year 1 Year2 Year3 Year4
- 800,000 600,000 400,000
1,000,000
-
200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000
800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000
20%
1,000,000 100000
5 5 5
200000 0 20000
5.00
5.00
10.00
73 80 80 80
73 50 50 50
37 37 37 37
146 130 130 130
110 93 93 93
Arther
10-20 30-40
Consolidated
> JLR
20,000 30,000
Cash Flow Statement/ Bank Statement
FY22 FY23E FY24E
Cash flow from Operations 1,140,000 4,586,973 10,166,859
Cash Flow from Financing / Loan taken and Repaid 10,430,000 1,290,000 1,150,000
Proceeds from Equity holders 10,000,000
Proceeds from debt holders 1,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000
Repayment debt 0 - -
Interest paid (70,000) (210,000) (350,000)
Dividends Paid -500000 (500,000) (500,000)
200,000
-
FY25E
16,390,683
16,530,990
301,200
490,000
(342,466) PY-CY
(1,095,890) PY-CY
506,849 CY-PY
(931,507)
1.7%
3,998
(1,155)
5,153
-
1,010,000
2,000,000
-
(490,000)
(500,000)
17,404,681
27,103,832
44,508,513
CFO
PAT
ADD: Dep Non Cash expenses
ADD: Interest*(1-T) NoN operating expenses & Losses adjusted for taxes
Less: Non Operating gains and Income adjusted for taxes
Less: WC Working capital
Cash available after paying all the operating and capital expenses but
Free cash to firm FCFF before paying to debt and equity holders.
Cash available to equity and debt holders
CFO FY23E FY24E FY25E
PAT 2,759 3,126 3,536
Dep 645 669 693
Interest*(1-T) 47 54 62
NPG 0 0 0
WC 324 104 114
Less: Capex -400 -400 -400
FCFF 3,375 3,553 4,004
Terminal value
Total Cash flows 3,375 3,553 4,004
1 2 3
Liab
E
Debt
Equity
Debt
FY26E FY27E FY28E
3,994 4,504 4,000
717 741 800
69 76 72
0 0 0
125 138 130
-400 -400 -400
4,505 5,059 4,602
89,392 60,000
4,505 94,451 64,602
6% 6% 6%
4 5 6
Assets
1,000,000 FA 2,000,000
Cash 100,000
1,000,000
2,000,000 2,000,000
1,000,000
900,000
FD's
5
Interest rate 10%
Inflation 9% PV
FV= PV *(1+r)n
PV= FV/(1+r)^n
Equity
Debt
Equity 100,000
Debt 300,000
Total capital 400,000
Weights
Equity 25%
Debt 75%
Stock Nifty
1 1% 1%
D/E 3
D 3
E 1
Total capital 4
Weights
D 0.75
E 0.25
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
10% 2.500%
14% 10.500%
13.000%
2.5
2.5
1
3.5
71%
29%
Debt 353
Mkt value Equity 53000
Debt 0.007
Equity 1
Total capital 1.007
Weights
Debt 1%
Equity 99%
CAPM
Rf (GOI) 6%
Beta 1
Market risk premium 6%
Market returns (Nifty) 12%
WACC 12%
Inputs
Equity 1,000,000 Profit & Loss Statement
FY22
FA 500000 Sales 2,000,000
COGS / Direct/ Raw material
cost 600,000
Maruti Maruti
Volumes/ Units 50
Sale price/ Units 0
Cost price / Units 0
Total sales 0
Total Cost 0
Profit 0
Profit Margin #DIV/0!
Hero 120
Bajaj 120
3W
Total Margin
TVS 120
3W
Liabilities FY22
FY23 Sources of Funds
4,000,000 Equity Capital 1,000,000
30% Loan
2,800,000
70%
20000
30000
2,750,000 Earnings before Interest , Tax, Depreicaiton, Amortization
69% Total 1,931,000
80,000 Overstated By 1000 -
2,670,000 40%
0
0 FA 10000
2,670,000
1068000 Sold loss of 2000
40% Liab Asset
1,602,000 R&S PPE
P&L -2000 -10000
BS
CF 8000
Interest Rate
Understated by 1000
P&L
BS
CF CF
Hyundai Pat
150 Dep 1000
110 PAT -600
0
R&S -600
16500
0 PPE -1000
16500 Cash 400
100%
16%
16%
18%
16%
10 3
15%
FY23E Assets FY22 FY23E
Applications of Funds
2,000,000 PPE 450,000 1,540,000
1,540,000 Inventories
Investment in Equity
PPE, Net
Accumulated Depreciation
Opening balance - 50,000
Add: Depreciation for the year 50,000 700,000
Accumulated Depreciation/ Closing 50,000 750,000
SLM
WDV
1,000,000
Useful 5 5
SLM 200000 0
FY22 FY23E
Sales 2,000,000 4,000,000
COGS 600,000 1,200,000
Sales 2,000,000 4,000,000
Receivables 0 668,493
Inventories 0 200,548
Payables - 131,507
DOR 0.00 61
DOI 0.00 61
DOP 0.00 12
Cash conversion cycle 0.00 110.00
Cash Flow Statement/ Bank Statement
FY22 FY23
Opening balance - 2,500,000
R&S Decrease
Year3 Year4 Year5
600,000 400,000 200,000
100000
5
20000
100%
#DIV/0!
Non-current assets
(a) Property, plant and equipment 5,354.34
(b) Capital work-in-progress 149.13
(c) Right of use of assets 517.9
(d) Other Intangible assets 321.3
(e) Intangible assets under development 368.09
(f) Equity accounted investments in associates 2,202.51
(g) Financial assets
(i) Investments 2,455.05
(ii) Loans 17.43
(iii) Others 42.01
(h) Income tax assets (net) 358.07
(i) Other non-current assets 120.34
Total Non - Current Assets 11,906.17 0.00
Current assets
(a) Inventories
(b) Financial assets
(i) Investments
(ii) Trade receivables
(iii) Cash and cash equivalents
(iv) Bank balances other than (iii) above
(v) Loans
(vi) Others
(c) Other current assets
Total Current Assets
Total Assets
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Equity
(a) Equity share capital
(b) Other equity
Total Equity attributable to owners of the Company
Non-controlling interests
Total Equity
LIABILITIES
Non-current liabilities
(a) Financial liabilities
(i) Borrowings
(ii) Lease liabilities
(iii) Other financial liabilities
(b) Provisions
(c) Deferred tax liabilities (net)
Total Non - Current Liabilities
Current liabilities
(a) Financial liabilities
(i) Borrowings
(ii) Lease liabilities
(iii) Trade payables
Total outstanding dues of micro and small enterprises
Total outstanding dues of creditors other than micro and small enterprises
(iv) Other Financial liabilities
(b) Other current liabilities
(c) Provisions
Total Current Liabilities
Total Equity and Liabilities