Evaluating the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement in Mitigating Climate Change

BY: Mohit Sharma& Digamber Phagna

Abstract
What is Paris Agreement – what led to its formation – the major goals undersigned by the
agreement – its deficits and loopholes in mitigating climate change – critical evaluation –
contemporary challenges circumscribing climate adaptation and mitigation – what needs to
be done for enhanced measures towards climate emergency – concluding remarks.

The Paris Agreement is a landmark climate accord that has international ramifications. It was
adopted transnationally to address climate change and its detrimental impacts. The agreement
aims to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature
increase in this century to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, while simultaneously
pursuing the means to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees. To fulfil this, the agreement includes
commitments from nearly all major emitting countries to reduce their climate emission and to
strengthen those commitments over time. The pact additionally provides a pathway for
developed nations to assist developing nations in their climate mitigation and adaptation
efforts, and it has established a framework for the transparent monitoring, reporting, and
ratcheting up of countries’ individual and collective climate goals – such as the yearly
Conference of Parties (COP). It encourages nations to participate in a “global stocktake” to
measure collective efforts toward meeting the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals as well. It
examines the achievements and limitations of the Agreement in fostering meaningful climate
action, assessing the impacts of its mechanisms, compliance frameworks, and voluntary
contributions of signatory nations. By comparing carbon emissions, adaptation efforts, and
financial support across the years, this article provides an updated analysis of the Agreement's
ability to meet its intended goals and offers suggestions for future improvement.

INTRODUCTION
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, marked a historic milestone in global climate
negotiations, with 196 countries committing to mitigate climate change through nationally
determined contributions (NDCs). Unlike previous frameworks, it introduced a bottom-up
approach that allows each country to set its own targets, aiming to limit global temperature
rise to well below 2°C, with an aspiration to achieve 1.5°C. However, as the climate crisis
intensifies, the effectiveness of the Agreement remains under scrutiny. This paper examines
whether the Paris Agreement has succeeded in establishing a cohesive and impactful
international climate strategy, highlighting its strengths, challenges, and areas needing
enhancement.

It has been recognised that developing countries and small island nations who have
contributed minimally to climate change could bear its brunt. Consequently, the Paris
Agreement includes a plan for developed countries - to provide financial grants to help
developing countries mitigate and increase their resilience to climate change. For example,
India’s pledge includes the need to eradicate poverty along with decreasing emissions and
increasing renewable energy – PM KUSUM Yojana. With timely and adequate technological
and financial help from developed countries, it was envisioned that climate mitigation and
adaptation efforts would find its pinnacle. However, this has not quite resulted in a positive
precedence.

The Paris Agreement was originally built on the financial commitments of the 2009
Copenhagen Accord, which aimed at scaling up public and private climate finances for
developing nations to $100 billion by the end of 2020. 1 The pact also created the Green
Climate Fund to mobilize private finance using targeted public kitty. The Paris agreement
helped build on its scale and membership. Unfortunately, it has not been able to fully provide
the finances with occasional uncertainties in its mechanism – for example US’s withdrawal in
2017. Moreover, the collective contributions continue to fall short, reaching approximately
$79 billion by 2020.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes that climate change will be limited
only by “substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.”

EXTENT OF EFFECTIVENESS OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT IN MITIGATION

A fundamental measure of the Paris Agreement’s success is the degree of GHG reduction
achieved. Although countries like the EU have made substantial strides in reducing
emissions, others lag due to economic or political constraints. The global trend since the
Agreement shows progress in policy adoption but insufficient overall emission reduction.
Major emitters, including the United States and China, have faced challenges in aligning

1
https://www.nrdc.org/bio/jennifer-skene/indigenous-led-land-protection-key-canadas-
future
national policies with the 1.5°C target, as high fossil fuel dependency remains. Financial
contributions to developing countries for climate adaptation and mitigation form a core pillar
of the Agreement. However, while developed countries pledged $100 billion annually by
2020, actual disbursements fall short. This financial gap has hindered climate resilience in the
most vulnerable regions, demonstrating a critical area where the Agreement's impact has been
limited by insufficient compliance with financial commitments. The Paris Agreement has
stimulated green technology development and fostered numerous clean energy initiatives.
From carbon capture technology to renewable energy projects, the Agreement has encouraged
public and private investments in sustainable innovation. However, the rate of innovation and
adoption varies widely, with wealthy nations far outpacing developing ones due to resource
constraints. The Agreement’s non-binding nature has led to inconsistent enforcement of
NDCs. For example, some nations have updated their commitments with more ambitious
targets, while others have relaxed theirs. This inconsistency raises concerns about collective
accountability. Additionally, the disparity in climate finance continues to undermine global
efforts, as developing countries rely heavily on international support to implement adaptation
strategies effectively. The Paris Agreement has catalysed a shift in global climate governance,
inspiring initiatives like the European Green Deal, China’s carbon neutrality goal by 2060,
and similar commitments from over 100 countries. These shifts suggest that the Agreement
has laid a valuable foundation for national and regional policy adaptations. However, as
climate risks escalate, more stringent, binding commitments may be necessary to ensure that
these efforts remain aligned with global targets. To enhance the effectiveness of the Paris
Agreement, future frameworks might incorporate more binding commitments and increase
penalties for non-compliance. Additional financial mechanisms are crucial, particularly for
under-resourced nations. These could include debt-for-climate swaps and innovative
financing through green bonds. Strengthening international cooperation on technology
transfer would also enable more uniform climate action.
The recently released IPCC’s 6th assessment report 2023 findings are definitive determinants
of the inability of collective nations to tackle climate change. The report finds that it is likely
that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century, despite progress in climate
mitigation policies and legislation – which is largely catering to loopholes and deficiencies in
implementation and absence of legally binding frameworks. It highlights the insufficient
climate finances to deal with adaptation and mitigation frameworks. While, financial
resources under Paris Agreement are still lacking, the report notes, public and private
finance flows for fossil fuels are still greater than those for climate adaptation and mitigation.
This has been by far the largest determinant of our inability to meet our targets. Fossil fuel
debate has been on the centre stage since decades – while they are absolutely necessary for
countries such as India to boost its economic prowess, they exacerbate global warming. This
has seen a recent culmination in the Phase out Versus Phase down debate at COP 28.
However, like other mechanisms, the demand of developing countries to switch to “phase
down” has not been addressed, and was merely declared to “transition away from the fossil
fuels.”

However, a landmark decision was taken – which was operationalising the “Loss and
Damage Fund” which will be overlooked by the World Bank in the interim. All developing
countries are eligible to apply, and every country is "invited" to contribute voluntarily. A
specific percentage is earmarked for Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing
States.2 This re-establishes the trust in global fraternity to deal with climate change. It would
also help the least developing states in enhances availability of resources to handle climate
change – both adaptation as well as mitigation.

Paris Agreement has been seen as a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. But unlike the Kyoto
Protocol, which established a top-down legally binding emissions reduction targets along
with penalties for noncompliance for developed nations, the Paris Agreement requires that all
countries whether - rich, poor, developed, or developing to do their part for slashing down
greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, greater flexibility and national ownership is built into the
Paris Agreement – as - No prescription is included about the commitments countries should
make - nations can set their own emissions targets (INDCs), 3which are consistent with their
level of development and technological advancement. This successfully recognizes the
CBDR RC principle – Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective
Capabilities which enhances climate equity and also simultaneously reduces north south
divide in global geopolitics providing equal opportunities to member nations to be the part of
economic revolution thus, fostering equity.

2
Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation target -
Marshall Burke, W. Matthew Davis & Noah S. Diffenbaugh
3
https://wgms.ch/
While the Paris Agreement doesn’t have harsh penalties for countries not meeting their
targets, it does have a robust system of reporting, monitoring and reassessing individual and
collective country targets over time in order to proceed towards the world closer to the
broader objectives of the deal. And the agreement sets forth a requirement for countries to
announce their next round of targets every five years—unlike the Kyoto Protocol, which
aimed for that objective but didn’t include a specific requirement to achieve it. Thus, Paris
Agreement though lacks implementation and suffers from consistent blockages – it is by far
the most reliable, equitable and inclusive climate change deal. Moreover, it possesses the
ability to foster international cooperation towards handing the “climate emergency” and is
also responsive and adaptive to contemporary social, economic and political realities.

CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES
While we address the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement, It Is important to also look at the
transformed geopolitical and economic scenario at the global level – since 2015. There has
been a major pandemic – which took lives of millions and along with heavy economic costs,
research shows that it has reversed the mitigation measures undertaken by the countries
worldwide. World Meteorological Organisation highlights the rapid declining of glaciers
which has resulted in rising sea level, ocean acidification and arctic amplification – all of
which has contributed immensely to the challenges posed by climate change. To top it up,
major powers – Russia, USA, Israel - have been engrossed in large scale conflicts who’s
environmental costs are not hidden from anyone.
4

There have also not been enough steps taken to foster universalisation of the agreement – as it
leaves out major weapon producing countries such as Iran. This creates a loophole in
addressing the issue of climate change in totality. Further, differential policy measures
undertaken by the countries, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism by the
European Union – questions the ability of existing protocols to garner climate inequality and
inclusivity – as measures like these hamper the developing and least developing nations
disproportionately.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE

4
https://unfccc.int/cop29
The Global Stocktake (GST) is a periodic review mechanism established under the Paris
Agreement in 2015. The fifth iteration of the Global Stocktake (GST) text was released at
COP28 and was adopted with no objection – which shows political will and consensus to
handle climate change – one of the greatest achievements of Paris Agreement. The text has
proposed eight steps to keep the global temperature rise within the ambit of 1.5 degrees such
as - Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate
of energy efficiency improvements by 2030; Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of
unabated coal power etc.

In 2018, the IPCC’s Special Report: Global Warming at 1.5 Degrees Celsius concluded the
difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius could mean substantially more poverty, extreme
heat, sea level rise, habitat loss, and drought. Delays in accelerating climate change measures
underestimated advances in energy efficiency and clean energy technologies, and outright
ignored the huge health and economic costs of climate change itself. For example, A 2018
study titled – “Large Potential Reduction in Economic 5Damages Under U.N. Mitigation
Targets”, which was published in the journal Nature, suggests that if the United States failed
to meet its Paris climate goals, it could cost the economy as much as $6 trillion in the coming
decades. Thus, there awaits a close revamp of the Paris agreement along with instilling legal
mechanism for enforcement.6

CONCLUDING REMARKS
As the Paris Agreement matures, nations must firmly commit to phasing out fossil fuel
investment and investing in Nature Based Solutions. Often, the communities who contribute
least to global emissions are the ones already showing wealthier nations the way by
committing to rapid emissions reductions, renewable energy expansion, protecting their
forests, and putting economies on low-carbon pathways. Nations must uplift these
communities as well as those who are faced with the brunt of climate impacts. This includes
formally protecting Indigenous knowledge and rights, which are critical to fighting the
climate crisis. Indigenous peoples—comprising 5 percent of the global population—protect
80 percent of the planet’s biodiversity. Even without stronger recognition within the Paris

5
https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol

6
https://wmo.int
Agreement, Indigenous and frontline communities are building a global movement and
successfully fighting back against extractive, climate-damaging industries, including fossil
fuel pipelines, dams and mining. It’s time to integrate local solutions with global challenges
i.e., going GLOCAL to cater to climate change!

While the Paris Agreement has undeniably advanced climate action, its overall effectiveness
in achieving significant, long-term climate mitigation remains limited by financial shortfalls
and inconsistent enforcement. To address the accelerating climate crisis, the international
community may need to adopt more robust, legally binding measures and commit to
substantial financial and technological support for vulnerable nations. This study emphasizes
that the Paris Agreement, although a crucial first step, must evolve to meet the growing
demands of climate action and set a more effective pathway for the future.