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TOPIC 1:PROBABILITY
PART 3
CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES TO PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
ADDITIVE RULES
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
MULTIPLICATIVE RULES
BAYES’ RULE

Prepared by Sanizah Ahmad

Introduction
Probability can be defined as the chance of
an event occurring. It can be used to quantify
what the “odds” are that a specific event will
occur. Some examples of how probability is
used everyday would be weather forecasting,
“75% chance of rain” or for setting insurance
rates.
Definition: Probability is a numerical measure
of the likelihood that a specific event will
occur.
Three Conceptual Approaches to
Probability

A) Classical probability


B) Empirical probability


C) Subjective probability

A) Classical Probability

Classical probability uses sample spaces to

determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen and assumes that all outcomes
in the sample space are equally likely to occur.

n(E) # of desired outcomes

P(E) = =
n ( S ) Total # of possible outcomes
 Illustration 1
5

Find the probability of obtaining an even number in

one roll of a die.
Solution:
Let E = obtain even numbers
Number of outcomes included in E 3
P( E ) = = = 0.50
Total number of outcomes 6

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B) Empirical Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes.
If an experiment is repeated n times and an
event E is observed f times, then, according to
the relative frequency concept of probability:

f frequency of desired class

P(E) = =
n Sum of all frequencies
Illustration 2: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type
AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
f
A 22 P ( O) =
B 5 n
AB 2 21
O 21
=
50
Total 50
Illustration 2: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type
AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
22 5
A 22 P ( A or B) = +
B 5 50 50
AB 2 27
=
O 21 50
Total 50
Illustration 2: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type
AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
P ( neither A nor O )
A 22
B 5 5 2
= +
AB 2 50 50
O 21 7
=
Total 50 50
Illustration 2: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type
AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P ( not AB)
B 5 = 1 − P ( AB)
AB 2
2 48 24
O 21 = 1− = =
50 50 25
Total 50
C) Subjective Probability

Subjective probability uses a probability value

based on an educated guess or estimate,
employing opinions and inexact information.

Examples: weather forecasting, predicting

outcomes of sporting events

Bluman, Chapter 4
 Two Properties of Probability
12

 First Property of Probability

0 ≤ P (Ei) ≤ 1
0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1
 If A is certain to occur, then P(A)=1.

 If A cannot occur, then P(A)=0.

 Second Property of Probability

 Sum of properties of all possible outcomes must = 1.
 ΣP (Ei) = P (E1) + P (E2) + P (E3) + … = 1

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 PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Example 1a
13
A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one head
occurs?

Solution:
The sample space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
If the coin is balanced, each of these outcomes will be equally likely
to occur.
P(S) = 1
P(HH) + P(HT) + P(TH) + P(TT) = 1

A: the event that we will get at least one head

A= {HH, HT, TH}
P(A)= P(HH) + P(HT) + P(TH)
= ¼ + ¼ + ¼ = 3/4
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Example 1b: Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females. If a staff person is
selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse or
a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
 ADDITIVE RULES
15

Theorem 2.7

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 Additive Rules (cont.)
16

Corollary 2.1

Corollary 2.2

Corollary 2.3

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 ADDITIVE RULES A and B cannot
P(A  B) = P(A or B) occur at the same
time

If A and B are not-mutually

exclusive, then If A and B are
mutually exclusive,
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) then
Note: P(AB)0 P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)
Note: P(AB)=0

17 sanizah@tmsk.uitm.edu.my
 Example 2
18

 A university has 4000 undergraduates

2800 live in halls
1000 live in privately-rented accommodation
500 study medicine
340 of the medical students live in halls.
 A student is picked at random.
 Let H = student lives in hall;
 R = student lives in privately-rented accommodation;
 M = student study medicine.

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 Example 3
19

 Consider the experiment of rolling a die twice. Find

the probability that the sum of the numbers
obtained on two rolls is 5, 7, or 10.

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 Additive Rules for 3 events
20

Theorem 2.8

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 Example 4
21

 If a person visits his dentist, suppose that the probability

that he will have his teeth cleaned is 0.44, the probability
that he will have a cavity filled is 0.24, the probability
that he will have his tooth extracted is 0.21, the
probability that he will have his teeth cleaned and a
cavity filled is 0.08, the probability that he will have his
teeth cleaned and a tooth extracted is 0.11, the
probability that he will have a cavity filled and a tooth
extracted is 0.07, and the probability that he will have his
teeth cleaned, a cavity filled and a tooth extracted is
0.03. What is the probability that a person visiting his
dentist will have at least one of these things done to him?
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 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
22

Definition
The complement of event A, denoted by Ā, is the event
that includes all the outcomes for an experiment that
are not in A. (Note: Together they cover the entire sample space)
Theorem 2.9

A A Note: A= Ā

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 Example 5
23

 A die is thrown three times. What is the probability

that at least one 6 will occur?

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 TEXTBOOK pg 57- 58
24

 Go through Examples 2.29, 2.30, 2.31, 2.32

 Try Exercises Page 59

 2.52, 2.56, 2.58, 2.60, 2.61

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 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
25

 The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that

some event A has occurred is called a conditional probability
and is denoted by P(B|A). The symbol P(B|A) is usually read
as “the probability that B occurs given that A occurs” or simply
“the probability of B, given A”.

Definition 2.10

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 Example 6
26

 Suppose all 100 employees of a company were asked

whether they are in favour of or against paying high salaries
to CEOs of Malaysian companies. Table 1 below gives a two
way classification of the responses of these 100 employees.

Table 1:Two-Way Classification of Employee Responses

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 Example 6 (cont.)
27

a) Compute the conditional probability P(in favour|male) for the data

on 100 employees given in Table 2.
b) For the data of Table 2, calculate the conditional probability that a
randomly selected employee is a female given that this employee is
in favour of paying high salaries to CEOs.
Table 2 Two-Way Classification of Employee Responses with Totals

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 Example 2.34 (textbook pg 63)
28

 The probability that a regularly scheduled flight

departs on time is P(D)=0.83; the probability it
arrives on time is P(A)=0.82; and the probability that
it departs and arrives on time is P(DA) = 0.78.
Find the probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time;
(b) departed on time , given that it has arrived
on time.

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 INDEPENDENT EVENTS
29

Two events A and B, are said to be independent if and only

if the probability of event B is not influenced or changed by the
occurrence of event A, vice versa.
Two events A and B are dependent if knowing that one will
occur (or has occurred) changes the probability that the other
occurs.
Definition 2.11

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 MULTIPLICATIVE EVENTS
30

Theorem 2.10

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 Example 7
31

 Refer to the information on 100 employees given in Table 2.

Are events “female (F )” and “in favour (A )” independent?

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 Example 2.36 (pg. 66)
32

 Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which

5 are defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and
removed from the box in succession without replacing the first,
what is the probability that both fuses are defective?
 (Hint: Use a tree diagram)

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 Example 8
33

 A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were manufactured on

two machines. Of them, 60 were manufactured on Machine I.
Of the total CDs, 15 are defective. Of the 60 CDs that were
manufactured on Machine I, 9 are defective.
Let D be the event that a randomly selected CD is defective,
and let A be the event that a randomly selected CD was
manufactured on Machine I. Are events D and A independent?
(Hint: Build a two-way classification table)

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 Example 9
34

 Refer to the table below. If one employee is selected at

random for membership on the employee management
committee, what is the probability that this employee is a
female and a college graduate?
 Example 2.37 Pg. 66
35

 One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls,

and a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5
black balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag
and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the
probability that a ball now drawn from the second
ball is black?

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Figure 2.8 Tree diagram for Example
2.37
 Multiplicative Rule for
37
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
 Theorem 2.11

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Example 10a: Tossing a Coin

A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability

of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

Independent Events
P ( Head and 4 ) = P ( Head )  P ( 4 )

1 1 1
=  =
2 6 12
 Example 10b
39

 An office building has two fire detectors. The probability is

0 .02 that any fire detector of this type will fail to go off
during a fire. Find the probability that both of these fire
detectors will fail to go off in case of a fire.

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 Example 11
40

The probability that a patient is allergic to penicillin is 0.20.

Suppose this drug is administered to three patients.
a) Find the probability that all three of them are allergic to it.
b) Find the probability that at least one of the them is not
allergic to it.

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 MULTIPLICATIVE RULES
P(A  B) = P(A and B)

If A and B are DEPENDENT, then

P(AB) = P(A) x P(B|A) If A and B are
or = P(B) x P(A|B) INDEPENDENT, then
P(AB)=P(A) x P(B)

41 sanizah@tmsk.uitm.edu.my
 Theorem of Total Probability
42

Theorem 2.13

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 Partitioning the sample space S
43

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 Bayes’ Rule
44

Theorem 2.14

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 TEXTBOOK EXERCISES
45

 Page 69
2.76, 2.80, 2.81, 2.85, 2.89

 Page 76
2.95, 2.97, 2.101

 Go to this website for extra reading (provides good tutorial with

examples and solutions)
http://www.intmath.com/counting-probability/counting-probability-intro.php

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