JWC 0151507

© 2024 The Authors Journal of Water and Climate Change Vol 15 No 4, 1507 doi: 10.2166/wcc.2024.
394
Characterizing the aridity indices and potential evapotranspiration using CMIP6-GCMs

in two distinct regions of Ethiopia
Tesema Kebede Seifu a, b, * and Kidist Demessie Eshetua,b

a
Haramaya Institute of Technology, Haramaya University, P. O. Box 138, Diredawa, Ethiopia
b
Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources, Addis Ababa University, P. O. Box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
*Corresponding author. E-mail: tesema.kebede@aau.edu.et
TKS, 0000-0002-4970-6683
ABSTRACT
Using an ensemble of three global climate models, the current study aims to estimate climate change and quantify the changes in the aridity
and evapotranspiration of two distinct areas in Ethiopia. To adjust for bias in the climate dataset, the Hydrological Modeling Tool (CMhyd) was
used. These studies were initially run using station data and employed the shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios for the short-range
(2011–2040) years and medium-range (2041–2070) years. Climate-related aridity is measured using the De Martone and United Nations
Environment Programme aridity indices. The study’s findings for the western and eastern catchments for the reference period (1981–
2010) years reveal an average annual temperature rise of 1.5 and 0.06 °C and a drop in annual precipitation of 15.73 and 3.68 mm/year,
respectively. These alter the climate in the geographical areas that have historically supported drought. Evapotranspiration in the western
and eastern catchments may grow by up to 24.6 and 21.6%, respectively, by the 2070s. The observation implies that the western catchment
may experience more pronounced climate change and volatility than the eastern one. The consequences of this observation influence agri-
culture, water resource management, and the social and economic well-being of those living in drought-prone areas.
Key words: climate change, CMIP 6, De Martone, Ethiopia, evapotranspiration, UNEP aridity index
HIGHLIGHTS
• Using CMIP6 climate models.

• Comparing two hydro-climate regions.
• Using two basic aridity index parameters.
• Evapotransportation estimation.
• Semi-arid area analysis.
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Journal of Water and Climate Change Vol 15 No 4, 1508
GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT
1. INTRODUCTION
Nowadays, effective management of the natural environment and creating efficient plans for making reliable judgments about
upcoming climate uncertainty becomes more and more significant for the scientific world. The continuous alteration of the
usual atmospheric conditions that characterize local, regional, and global climates is referred to as global warming (Naz et al.
2022). Changes and oscillations in the climate may have a significant influence on the ecosystem and many areas of our
society. Long-term or short-term climatic conditions with human or natural origins have an impact on the total water
resources, both the surface and underground water (Mancosu et al. 2015; Alemayehu et al. 2016).
Scholars have begun a variety of programs to decrease the environmental impact of these developments. Currently, the
most modern global circulation models are being utilized to explain the present and future implications of climate change
and direct policy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has continued to release new CMIP model results
since it began in 2013 (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/). When compared to CMIP5, CMIP6 produces data with
greater geographical resolution and better algorithms.
Examples of climatic phenomena that aid in our understanding of the variation of crucial climate parameters (precipitation
and temperature) are aridity and drought. Aridity is a long-term climatic state in contrast to drought, which is a transient,
short-term weather phenomenon that may occur in a range of climates (Beštáková et al. 2023). The aridity indices (AIs)
of an area influence how variable its water resources are (Haile et al. 2022). The carrying capacity of ecosystems is negatively
impacted by the imbalance in water availability that is brought on by dryness. Low overall moisture, considerable temporal
and geographic variability, and a low yearly average rainfall all contribute to this disparity (Proutsos et al. 2021).

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A variety of metrics may be used to measure the aridity of the climate. However, one index has done well in a certain area
and climatic zone, while another has done well in other areas. This indicates that the indices vary in terms of the data’s acces-
sibility and the weather. De Martone’s AI, as well as the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) AI (modified
Thornthwaite approach) (Tabari & Aghajanloo 2013), were used among the AIs. These indices are ideal for examining the
climatic conditions in semi-arid locations because there are no many reliable data points available. The other indicator for
measuring precise climatic and bioclimatic classifications is potential evapotranspiration (PET) (Tu & Yang 2022). Studies
of meteorology and hydrology that are used to calculate the actual water consumption rate of different crops must consider
PET (Senatilleke et al. 2022). Understanding how climatic variability impacts hydrology requires understanding the effects of
climate change on conventional evapotranspiration (ETo) (Milly & Dunne 2016; Ajjur & Al-Ghamdi 2021; Singer et al. 2021;
Stefanidis & Alexandridis 2021; Al-Hasani & Shahid 2022).
Ethiopia has gone through several severe and prolonged dry spells in recent years (Edossa et al. 2010; Library et al. 2017;
Kassaye et al. 2021). In comparison to other climate disasters, drought is regarded as one of the most harmful extreme
climatic occurrences (Edossa et al. 2010; Haile et al. 2022). According to the research, climate change is the main factor con-
tributing to Ethiopia’s drought and famine (Kloos 1982; Zegeye 2018; Peng et al. 2021). According to Wilhite and others
(2007), both Ethiopia’s surface water resources and subsurface water supplies are susceptible to the effects of climate
change. One of the most pressing requirements for increasing the accessibility of water resources is expectations of future
events, particularly the direction and intensity of environmental change. The effects of the drought and its primary causes
in various regions of Ethiopia have been the subject of extensive research (Gebremedhin et al. 2018b; Tadesse et al. 2018;
Abrha & Hagos 2019; Meaza et al. 2022).
The research area is located in semi-arid regions in western and eastern Ethiopia having huge climate variability and pota-
ble water scarcity. Gambela plain (western) and Fafen-Jerer and Shinile subbasin (eastern) Ethiopia are the focus of this
particular study. Studies (Gebremedhin et al. 2018a; Tadesse et al. 2018; Alemayehu et al. 2020) have confirmed the existence
of drought in the aforementioned region. However, these studies focused on the socioeconomic aspects of a few small semi-
arid regions and lacked detailed climate analysis and the application of recent global climate model (GCM) outputs. Further-
more, it is unknown and poorly documented how the prevalence of climatic aridity varies through time and space in the
research locations. Before now, there has not been regional research that has established the expected climate of the western
and eastern catchments. These were the driving forces for our investigation into the risk assessment of climatic droughts in
the research locations and our projection of potential outcomes. This study differs from previous comparable studies in that it
considers two catchments with unique topo-ecological conditions, land-use patterns, and human lifestyles. Comparisons
across different scenarios highlight the importance of developing climate change mitigation policies to stop droughts from
occurring more frequently, staying longer, and increasing. Due to this, a study was conducted to examine the variation of
AIs and PET using CMIP6-GCM data for the reference period (1981–2010) years and the short- and mid-term periods
(2011–2040 and 2041–2070), and the study used the update of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and 8.5
based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)2 and SSP5. Researchers, governmental organizations, or stakeholders
will utilize this study in the future to design preventative strategies for drought, land degradation, and desertification antici-
pation and mitigation efforts. It will also assist water resource planners and policymakers in taking action to understand the
future effects of climate change.
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS

The purpose of this study is to determine the PET and the dryness of the climate in the reference period and future epochs
using temperature and precipitation data. Because of this, the primary goal of the current study is to assess the high-resolution
climatological data downscaled from seven GCMs while showcasing the expected changes in climate.
2.1. The study area

The western catchment in the far western part of Ethiopia and the eastern catchment in the far eastern portion of Ethiopia are
the two unique locations where this study was carried out. Geographically, the western catchment spans 40,889 km2 and is
located between 6°500 and 8°420 north and 33° 010 and 35° 510 east (Figure 1(a)). In this study, we accessed SRTM digital
elevation model data of the study regions from the USGS website (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/). The SRTM (Shuttle
Radar Topography Mission) digital elevation data, produced by NASA originally, is high-quality elevation data for large por-
tions of the tropics and other areas of the developing world. The catchment’s elevation ranges from 403 to 2,672 m above the

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Figure 1 | The topographic elevation and meteorological station locations: (a) western catchment and (b) eastern catchment.
sea level. The majority of the western catchment is a plain area called Gambela Plain (light yellow area of Figure 1(a)).
The key kind of land cover in the area is forest, and the drainage line runs in the east-west direction (Seifu et al. 2023).
The main river systems are the Baro and Akobo rivers, which are supplied by several tributaries. The weather station in
the area is very sparse, which shows a lack of adequate data.
The eastern catchment spans 90,319 km2 in eastern Ethiopia and extends from north to south. Geographically, the eastern
catchment extends from 41°060 to 45° 050 east and from 6°150 to 11°020 north. The region encompasses the Fafen-Jerer and
Shinile sub-basins. The primary issue is climate fluctuation due to the semi-arid environment of the eastern basin. Demo-
graphically, the majority of the territory is part of Ethiopia’s Somali regional state. The altitude range is 360 to 3,000 m
above the mean sea level (Figure 1(b)). Harar, Dire Dawa, and Jigjiga are the major cities and regional capitals in the area.
2.2. Climatic data

The National Meteorological Institute (NMI) gathered the historical daily climatic data that are currently accessible. There
were a total of 20 weather stations that had a daily record for the years that were accessible. Some of the stations
lack data on maximum and minimum temperatures as well as values for the past recorded daily precipitation. The station’s
nearest neighbor approaches and gridded datasets were used to fill up the data gaps (https://power.larc.nasa.gov/data-access-
viewer/). The GCM output was utilized to analyze the climate in the future. The data of the GCM were obtained from
the website World Climate Research Program (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/). For the short-range (2011–
2040) years and mid-range (2041–2070) years, the GCM dataset from CMIP of the IPCC’s sixth assessment report
subsection RCPs (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5.8.5) was utilized. Climate change scenarios from GCM are generally large
and need to be scaled down to obtain relevant information for areas of interest (Ashfaq et al. 2022; Shiru et al. 2022;
Wang & Tian 2022).
To accurately evaluate the regional consequences of climate change on precipitation and temperature, downscaling the
GCM from CMIP6 results to a higher geographical resolution is necessary. The climatic data from the GCM model were
downscaled, and these biases were corrected using the CMhyd model (climatic Model Data for Hydrological Modeling)
(Panahi et al. 2022). The model included bias correction techniques, linear scaling, delta change correction, local scaling
of precipitation intensity, conversion of precipitation power, scaling of temperature dispersion, and distribution mapping
of precipitation and temperature. In this study, linear scaling bias correction was applied. In many different applications,
the CMhyd model is frequently used to correct temperature and precipitation biases (Haider et al. 2021; Hordofa et al.
2021; Yeboah et al. 2022).

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2.3. Data analysis

The daily temperature and precipitation outputs from the three GCMs (CMCC-ESM2, FGOALS-g3, and MIROC6) were inte-
grated for each study by averaging the various datasets. The reference period (1981–2010) years, the present and forthcoming
(2011–2040) years, and the mid-range (2041–2070) years for each region are also compared in the study. In this study, poten-
tial ETo was calculated using the Thornthwaite approach (Thornthwaite 1948; Proutsos et al. 2021), and aridity was assessed
using the De Martone and UNEP AIs.
2.3.1. Potential evapotranspiration

PET is a significant parameter for water balance studies and the agriculture sector. It is a key element in defining aridity and
the classification of climates (Milly & Dunne 2016). The term ‘potential evapotranspiration’ first used by Thornthwaite (1948)
describes the volume of water that might potentially evaporate under perfect conditions (Yang et al. 2021). ETo estimates
have been calculated in the past and present using several methods, including lysimeters and remote sensing (Hasan et al.
2008; Sobrino et al. 2021; Schrader et al. 2023). The use of various techniques relies on the objective and the availability
of data. The amount of data required for hydrological estimates in semi-arid areas is relatively high. The Thornthwaites
equation, which requires less information about the climate and is simpler, was used in this investigation. The following is
the Thornthwaite’s method for figuring out the PET:

10Ti a
PET ¼ 16 (1)
I
where PET is potential evapotranspiration, Ti ¼ average temperature, and I ¼ heat index, which depends on the 12-month
temperature.
a ¼ (6:75 107 )I3 (7:71 105 )I2 þ (1:792 102 )I þ 0:49239

12
X
Tai 1:514
I¼ (2)
i¼1
5
2.3.2. Aridity indices

Numerous studies have demonstrated that the dryness index, sometimes known as humidity, can accurately depict both
humid and dry climatic conditions (Ş arlak & Mahmood Agha 2018; Pellicone et al. 2019; Beštáková et al. 2023). The
degree to which a climate lacks sufficient, life-supporting moisture is referred to as aridity, which in the context of climate
is the opposite of humidity. In this particular study, two geographically separate areas of Ethiopia were examined using
the indices listed below.
2.3.3. De Martone index

The De Martone index (DMI) is calculated by using annual precipitation and temperature. French scholar Emmanuel De
Martone developed it in the early 20th century (Croitoru et al. 2013). This index was created in 1926, making it very ancient.
Even though it is one of the oldest AIs, it has been used successfully on a global scale recently to evaluate the dry/humid
conditions of different regions about the classification of climates. (Croitoru et al. 2013). This indicator was used in the
study of the climate in several research studies (Croitoru et al. 2013; Moral et al. 2016; Ş arlak & Mahmood Agha 2018).
The ratio of the mean annual precipitation (P) and temperature is known as De Martone’s AI (De Martone, 1926). DMI
(mm/°C) is defined as follows:
P
DMI ¼ (3)
T þ 10
The De Martone AI is used to categorize the climate of a region (Table 1) (Gavrilov et al. 2019; Pellicone et al. 2019).

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Table 1 | The climate classification according to De Martone aridity and UNEP aridity index value (UNEP 1992; Baltas 2007)
Index Type of climate Index value
De Martone aridity index Arid DMI , 10

Semi-arid 10 DMI , 20
Mediterranean 20 DMI , 24
Semi-humid 24 DMI , 28
Humid 28 DMI , 35
Very humid 35 DMI 55
Extremely DMI . 55
UNEP aridity index Hyper-arid ,0.05
Arid 0.05_0.20
Semi-arid 0.20_0.50
Dry subhumid 0.50_0.75
Humid .0.75
2.3.4. UNEP aridity index

The AI, developed by the UNEP and used to classify climatic regimes and monitor drought events, is defined as the ratio of
yearly precipitation to potential ETo (Dave et al. 2019). Each research site’s incidence of drought was quantified using AI.
According to Ganem et al. (2022), the UNEP AI is as follows:
P
AI ¼ (4)
PET
where P and PET are, respectively, the mean annual precipitation (mm) and the potential annual ETo (mm) (UNEP et al.
1997). The P/PET ratio is a better representation of climate variability (Li et al. 2017). In general, including ETo in calcu-
lations of the AI increases its power in studies aimed at assessing agricultural risk from drought. Thus, understanding AI
fluctuation and the impact of climate factors is crucial for managing agricultural water resources and preserving the stability
of regional ecosystems (Zarei & Mahmoudi 2021). According to the UNEP AI, aridity is classified into five categories (climate
classification) (Boschetto et al. 2010) (Table 1).
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This section presents climate analysis results for two districts’ catchments based on baseline and future periods SSP2-RCP4.5
and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. Climate change indicators are defined as the difference between the periods 2011–2040,
2041–2070, and 1981–2010.
3.1. Model selection and future climate projection

It is subjective and difficult to select a specific model for a specific area of study. In this particular study, seven GCM models
are evaluated for the climate projection of two district catchments. The analysis confirms that most of the model works of the
study region climate project, Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change with Climate and Earth System Models (CMCC-
ESM2), the Earth System Model EC-Earth3 with carbon cycle (EC-Earth3-CC), Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land
System Model Grid-Point Version 3 (FGOALS-g3), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6),
and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1-2-HR), Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model
Version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2-0), and NUIST Earth System Model version 3 (NESM3) were evaluated (Table 2) models with
meteor observations of 20 stations data in the study regions for the reference period (1981–2010). To select the best model
projection, the study used model evaluation parameters: correlation coefficient (R 2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent
bias (PBIAS), and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results showed that CMCC-ESM2, FGOALS-g3, and MIROC6 have
the best agreements with the study region’s meteorological observation (Table 3) for both precipitation and temperature data-
sets. We used the bias-corrected average of these three models’ outputs for both SSPs. Other similar studies in regions confirm
that CMIP6-GCM models are effective in projecting future climate in Ethiopia (Alaminie et al. 2021, 2023; Balcha et al.

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Table 2 | The GCMs applied, the institution, and the sources
Resolution
No GCM Institution (lon.* lat., deg) References Remark
1 CMCC-ESM2 Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Italy 1°*1° Lovato et al. (2022) Selected
2 EC-Earth3-CC European EC-Earth Consortium 0.7°*0.7° Farhat et al. (2022)
3 FGOALS-g3 Chinese Academy of Sciences, China 2°*2.3° Li et al., (2021) Selected
4 MIROC6 Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 1.4°*1.4° Tatebe et al. (2019) Selected
Japan
5 MPI-ESM1-2- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany 0.94°*0.94° Müller et al. (2018)
HR
6 MRI-ESM2-0 Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, J þ C34apan 1.1°*1.1° Yukimoto et al.
(2019)
7 NESM3 Nanjing University of Information Science and 1.9°*1.9° Yang et al. (2020)
Technology, China
Note: ‘Selected’ in the remark is to state that the data from the three models were applied for the projected climate parameters analysis with both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 cases.
Table 3 | Monthly observations of precipitation of the GCM models validation with ground observations (1981–2010)
Statistical analysis Correlation coefficient RMSE R2 PBIAS NSE
Model
CMCC-ESM2 0.99 13.33 0.98 0.00 0.84
EC-Earth3-CC 0.94 13.86 0.88 0.00 0.69
FGOALS-g3 0.98 18.72 0.97 0.00 0.84
MIROC6 0.99 28.46 0.98 0.00 0.83
MPI-ESM1-2-HR 0.97 25.29 0.94 0.00 0.77
MRI-ESM2-0 0.99 14.58 0.97 0.00 0.83
NESM3 0.67 33.64 0.50 0.01 0.18
2022). This is the first attempt in the study regions for a climate projection that can be modified with additional scenarios and
an extended estimation period.
3.2. Historical and projected analysis of climate variables

3.2.1. Precipitation and temperature
The primary climatic factor that affects an area’s ETo and AI is temperature, which is dependent on an area’s latitude and
height. For the western catchment, the baseline period temperature range becomes 18.1 °C at the eastern border to 28.7 °C
around Jikawo (Figure 2(a)). The warmer temperature in this case is concentrated in the northern central part of the Gambela
plain, while the coldest one is in the eastern border areas (around Masha). During the years 1981–2010, the mean annual
temperature in the eastern catchment ranges from 18.2 to 27.6 °C (Figure 2(b)). The warmer temperature zone is in the
southern (south of Deghabur) and northeastern extreme areas (Aysha). The coldest record is at the mountain areas of the
upper catchment (Ahmar mountains). The temperature in the eastern part increases from the highland area to lowland
area, which follows the topographic elevation of the region.
Precipitation is a major parameter that determines the ETo and aridity of a specific area. During the baseline period (1981–
2010), the minimum annual precipitation for the western catchment was 995 mm/year at Jikawo and the maximum was
2,296 mm/year at the eastern hills (Masha) (Figure 3(a)). The rainfall pattern in the western catchment is unimodal and maxi-
mum from June to August (Figure 4). The lowest rainfall recorded was in the month of February. At the reference period, the
mean annual precipitation of the eastern catchment ranges from 259 to 831 mm. Most of the area receives the lowest annual
rainfall compared to the national average of ∼1,000 mm/year. The lowest rainfall occurs around Deghabur, and the highest

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Figure 2 | Temperature distribution in (a) western and (b) eastern catchment for the baseline period (1981–2010).
Figure 3 | The baseline (1981–2010) precipitation distribution in (a) western and (b) eastern catchment.
record is in the mountain areas (Figure 3(b)). Taking the mountain as a reference point, the north and south of the mountain
follow different rainfall patterns, which are bimodal in both cases having two peak rainfall points. The peak period of the
northern (Shinile) and the southern (Fafen-Jerer) parts occurred in a different month. In the southern part (Fafen-Jerer),
the two rainfall seasons are from March to May and from July to September (Figure 4). The major peak occurred in the

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Figure 4 | Mean air temperature (°C) (line graph) and average monthly precipitation (mm) (bar graph) for 1981–2010 for the three specific
catchments.
month of April. In the northern part (Shinile), the rainy seasons are from March to May and from June to August (Figure 4).
The maximum annual rainfall record was in the month of July, while the minimum was in January.
3.2.1.1. The trend precipitation and temperature (1981–2010) years. The Mann–Kendall trend test is employed in the study to
evaluate the trend’s significance (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S002216949700125X). The
historical precipitation trend seems to decrease for both the western and eastern catchments, which is not significant
(Figure 5). Western catchment precipitation intensity has decreased significantly more than that of the eastern part
Figure 5 | Historical analysis of precipitation and temperature: (a) western catchment and (b) eastern catchment.

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(as shown in Figure 5(a)). A decrease of 15.7 mm/year has occurred throughout the last 30 years. According to the results of
the Mann–Kendall trend test, the precipitation in the eastern and western catchments had p-values that were not less than
0.05 at 0.425 and 0.1603, respectively. We may thus conclude that neither of the catchments is showing a discernible
decreasing trend. In addition, the temperature rose by 0.063/year in the past period in the western catchment. The case of
decreasing precipitation with increasing temperature can increase the existential risk of the region. The eastern catchment
follows similar precipitation and temperature changes with a relatively lower intensity. Precipitation decreased by 3.6 mm/
year and temperature increased by 0.002/year for the eastern catchment (Figure 5(b)). The temperature in the eastern and
western catchments is shown by the Mann–Kendall test with p-values of 0.063 and 0.0002, respectively. We may thus
infer that there is a significant tendency of increasing temperatures in the western basin and a less significant trend of
increasing temperatures in the eastern basin.
3.2.1.2. Projected precipitation and temperature trends. Figure 6 illustrates how SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5 are
anticipated to increase precipitation in the western catchment by 2.8 and 4.2 mm/year, respectively. Furthermore, it is
anticipated that the western catchment will experience a significant rise in temperature over the next few decades, with
annual increases of 0.023 and 0.039 °C for SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5, respectively. Temperature and precipitation
percentage variations in both catchments for future instances relative to the reference period are presented in Table 4. For
the eastern catchment, annual precipitation values have not changed significantly over the immediate near period, with
Figure 6 | Projected precipitation and temperature of western catchment: (a) SSP2-RCP4.5 and (b) SSP5-RCP8.5.

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Table 4 | The change of projected precipitation and temperature in the catchments relative to the baseline period
Scenarios
Western catchment Eastern catchment
Mean precipitation (mm/year) Time RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Baseline 1981–2010 1,588.35 1,588.35 595.32 595.32

Short range 2015–2040 1,743.52 1,803.05 668.70 674.01
Mid-range 2041–2070 1,820.95 1,907.86 698.89 755.09
Change short range (%) 9.77 13.52 12.33 13.22
Change mid-range (%) 14.64 20.12 17.40 26.84
Scenarios
Mean precipitation (mm/year) Time RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Baseline 1981–2010 23.37 23.37 22.38 22.38

Short range 2015–2040 23.95 24.01 22.74 22.93
Mid-range 2041–2070 24.63 25.09 23.51 24.09
Change mid-range (%) 5.40 7.39 5.05 7.64
some mean-period increases for both SSPs (Figure 7). With no discernible change over the years 2041–2070, the eastern
catchment’s southern and northeastern regions have experienced the driest conditions in recent decades, averaging
259–457 mm/year.
Table 5 shows that with p-values of 0.0966 and 0.0033, respectively, the Mann–Kendall test findings show that significant
precipitation takes place in the eastern and western catchments under SSP2-RCP4.5. As a result, we can say that there is a
clear increasing pattern in the western basin. In both catchments, the precipitation of SSP2-RCP8.5 showed p-values of
0.0025 and 0.0048, which is predicted to show that both catchments show an increase in precipitation. Accordingly, SSP2-
RCP4.5 temperature indicates no significant increase in both basins. In the western catchment, the temperature increases sig-
nificantly (p ¼ 0) under the SSP2-RCP8.5 scenario, while the eastern catchment shows no significant rise in temperature.
3.2.2. Potential evapotranspiration

The amount of water that can theoretically evaporate from a region that is entirely and uniformly covered in vegetation, has
an unlimited supply of water, and is not heated or subjected to advection is known as PET. In the study regions, the distri-
bution of PET follows a pattern resembling changes in temperature and precipitation. The warmer areas have a higher PET
content and vice versa. In the western catchment, the PET value for the reference period ranged from 816 to 2,328 mm/year
(Figure 8(a)), which is a higher range of values compared to the eastern catchment. The western part of the western catch-
ment, in general, and the flat Gambela area, in particular, show a higher PET. The PET value of the eastern reference
period ranged from 837 to 2,093 mm/year (Figure 8(b)). Higher ETo for the eastern catchment is recorded at Aysha and
south of Deghabur. The trend in ETo has increased by 14.2 and 1.5 mm/year for the western and eastern catchments, respect-
ively, over the past decades (Figure 9). This change will continue to increase for the projected climate of both catchments. For
the west, the average PET gain is from 6.72 to 24.49% for the short and medium periods from the reference for both SSPs
(Table 6). Projected climate analysis for the eastern catchment indicated that PET would exhibit an average increase from
4.4 to 21.7% in the short and medium periods for both scenarios. There is a huge change in the PET for the projected
mid-range climate for both catchments. This shows that PET is one of the climate challenges of the 1970s.
3.2.3. Aridity indices

Different aridity/humidity conditions with a common number of climate classes were observed in the western and eastern
catchments. The western catchment characteristic tilted to humidity, while the eastern catchment tilted to aridity conditions.
In other words, western catchments are wetter, and the eastern catchments are frequently drier.

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Figure 7 | Projected precipitation and temperature of eastern catchment: (a) SSP2-RCP4.5 and (b) SSP5-RCP8.5.
Table 5 | Mann–Kendall trend test parameters for baseline and predicted precipitation and temperature, PET, AI, and DMI
Eastern
Basin Western
2015–2070 2015–2070
Time 1981–2010 1981–2010
Models Average RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Average RCP4.5 RCP8.5
SSP scenarios Historical SSP2 SSP5 Historical SSP2 SSP5
Mann–Kendall trend test result Precipitation P 0.42500 0.09660 0.00250 0.16030 0.00330 0.00480
Trend No trend No trend Increasing No trend Increasing Increasing
S 1.32500 1.19800 2.68000 5.56000 3.24000 3.73000
Temperature P 0.06300 2.40030 4.44000 0.00028 1.75410 0.00000
Trend No trend Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing
S 0.01060 0.02800 0.04260 0.02690 0.02400 0.03800
PET P 0.00200 1.03890 2.24200 0.00061 1.22000 1.22000
Trend Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing
S 1.70160 3.64000 5.91000 5.50050 5.08800 5.08000
AI P 0.26800 0.24930 0.99400 0.09420 0.80460 0.15100
Trend No trend No trend No trend No trend No trend No trend
S 0.00140 0.00079 2.57000 0.00650 0.00021 0.00160
DMI P 0.26800 0.16800 0.16800 0.10820 0.15540 0.22680
Trend No trend No trend No trend No trend No trend No trend
S 0.12500 0.04500 0.04500 0.18340 0.04800 0.04640

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Figure 8 | Potential evapotranspiration of (a) western and (b) eastern catchment for the reference period (1981–2010).
Figure 9 | Evapotranspiration trend of the western and eastern catchment for the historical period.
3.2.3.1. De Martone aridity index. The climate classification using DMI is grouped into seven classes (Table 1) (Baltas 2007).
DMI was calculated using ArcGIS with the kriging interpolation method. Based on the value of DMI, the study areas were
reclassified according to the stated climate classification. The De Martone aridity indicator readings within the duration
(1981–2010) years varied between 6.86 and 29.68 mm/°C in the eastern catchment, while the western ranged from 25.94
to 81.4 mm/°C. It is evident from Figure 10 that the eastern catchment is comparatively less humid than the western one.
The lowest values of DMI, representing the highest dryness, were generally higher at the northeast (Aysha) and southern
(around Deghabur) of the eastern catchment. A semi-arid climate class covers much of the eastern part (46%), while
humidity is the feature of the western catchment (Table 7).

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Table 6 | The variation of projected evapotranspiration (mm) in the study regions for both SSP scenarios
Scenarios
Evapotranspiration variations in mm/year Time RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Baseline 1981–2010 1,451.32 1,451.32 1,202.13 1,202.13

Short range 2015–2040 1,548.82 1,562.72 1,257.93 1,283.72
Mid-range 2041–2070 1,695.27 1,806.71 1,364.73 1,462.11
Change mid-range (%) 16.81 24.49 13.53 21.63
Figure 10 | The DMI value of the study area for reference periods (1981–2010): (a) western and (b) eastern catchment.
Table 7 | De Martone aridity index with the climate classification of the two catchments for the historical period (1981–2010)
West catchment East catchment
DMI value Climate class Area (km2) % Area (km2) %
DMI , 10 Arid – – 30,299.86 33.54

10 , DMI , 20 Semi-arid – – 42,003.90 46.49
20 DMI , 24 Mediterranean – – 12,953.65 14.34
24 DMI , 28 Semi-humid 1,022.94 2.50 4,716.14 5.22
28 DMI , 35 Humid 9,462.05 23.14 367.72 0.41
35 DMI 55 Very humid 15,237.95 37.27 – –
DMI . 55 Extremely humid 15,161.18 37.08 – –
Bold values are to show the majority coverage in the area.
3.2.3.2. UNEP aridity index. The UNEP aridity classified the climate of an area into five classes from hyper-arid to humid
climate (Table 1). The values of the AI and classification based on UNEP classification are shown in Figure 11. The typical
weather areas of the two research areas during the reference span (1981–2010) years consist of semi-arid, dry-moderate, and

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Figure 11 | The UNEP-AI value of the study area for reference periods (1981–2010): (a) western and (b) eastern catchment.
Table 8 | Based on the UNEP aridity index, the classification of study area’s climate for the historical period (1981–2010)
West catchment East catchment
2
AI value Climate class Area (km ) % Area (km2) %
AI , 0.05 Hyper-arid – – – –
0.05–0.20 Arid – – 19,429.75 21.51
0.20–0.50 Semi-arid 1,536.28 3.76 41,651.57 46.12
0.5–0.75 Dry sub-humid 8,603.37 21.04 24,305.72 26.91
AI . 0.75 Humid 30,746.46 75.20 4,927.37 5.46
Bold values are to show the majority coverage in the area.
humid. The key atmospheric zone in the western region is the humid atmospheric category, while the primary atmospheric
zone in the eastern region is the semi-arid climate (Table 8). The results show that the eastern catchment has a more
comprehensive climate classification than the western one according to the UNEP AI (Figure 11). For the projected
periods, there were shifts from one climate zone to another in both regions. The AI for the future climate in the eastern
catchment increases by 9.02% short range, but it only has a 6.7% increment for a mid-range scenario of SSP2-RCP4.5.
The increment for SSP5-RCP8.5 is by 7.25 and 11.76% for short-range and mid-range cases, respectively. The condition is
different for the western catchment area. The UNEP-AI increases for short ranges rather than for medium ranges, but the
SSP2-RCP4.5 mid-range case declined by 3.03% from the reference period (Figure 14). For short-range SSP5-RCP8.5, the
increase is 2.8%, but it decreases by 3.5% for mid-range analysis versus the reference period.
3.2.3.3. Trends of aridity indices. Aridity in the western and eastern catchments has generally been declining for both AIs in
recent decades. The peak aridity value of the western catchment was recorded in 1996 with a value of 67.8 and 1.98 9 for
DMI and UNEP-AI, respectively. The minimum aridity value was recorded in 2003 with a value of 35.5 and 0.99 for DMI
and UNEP-AI, respectively (Figure 12(a)). Relative to the western, the trend of aridity for the eastern catchment has a lot
of peaks and valleys. The peak aridity in the eastern catchment value was recorded in 1987 with a value of 29.0 and 0.88
for DMI and UNEP-AI, respectively. The lowest aridity value was recorded in 2003 with values of 10.9 and 0.32 for DMI

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Figure 12 | Historical aridity indices for (a) western catchment and (b) eastern catchment.
and UNEP-AI, respectively (Figure 12(b)). According to the UNEP, AI of the western catchment has been declining for the
historical period and forecast. This suggests that climatic droughts have increased in recent decades and will continue to
increase over the next 50 years. The aridity nature has increased within the last decades, which changes humidity
conditions to a semi-humid and semi-arid climate in the western catchment. The same is true for the eastern catchment
with low intensity of change.
The AIs analysis of the historical period evaluated at two extreme points (1981–1990 and 2001–2010) for both catchments
is presented in Figures 13 and 14. The effects of climate drought are greater in the western catchment area than in the eastern
one. The results of the De Martone aridity classification of the western catchment showed that the climate class changed from
humid and very humid to semi-arid, Mediterranean, and dry subhumid between 1981 and 2010 (Figure 13). For the eastern
catchment, the DMI analysis increased the arid climate by 17–38% of the 1981–2010 area coverage (Figure 14(a) and 14(b)).
The UNEP-AI climate classification case for the western catchment increased the semi-arid climate by 0–22% of area cover-
age (Figure 13(c) and 13(d)). In the eastern catchment, the arid climate increased from 6.98 to 26.3% area coverage
(Figure 14). In both scenarios, the UNEP-AI may decline in the future, while the DMI value of the future in the short-
range instances may rise. In the case of SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5 for the short range, the DMI conditions in the wes-
tern catchment can be raised by 2.0 and 3.0, respectively (Figure 15). By the end of the 2070s, the UNEP-AI for SSP2-RCP4.5

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Figure 13 | The spatial variability of aridity indices in the western catchment: (a) and (b) De Martone aridity index and (c) and (d) UNEP aridity
index.
Figure 14 | The spatial variability of aridity indices in eastern catchment: (a) and (b) De Martone aridity index and (c) and (d) UNEP aridity
index.

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Figure 15 | DMI and UNEP-AI values of western catchment for future scenarios: (a) SSP2-RCP4.5 and (b) SSP-RCP8.5.
and SSP5-RCP8.5 will be falling by 0.03 and 0.1, respectively. In comparison to the western watershed, the aridity variation in
the eastern catchment likewise changes in a similar manner and across a short range. The UNEP-AI will be decreasing by
0.04 and 0.01 for SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5, respectively, by the end of the 2070s (Figure 16). The variations in the
catchments’ AIs are not well depicted in the spatial distribution maps (Figures 17 and 18).
3.2.3.4. Comparison with previous studies. A study by Haile and others (2022) examining drought using the standardized
ETo and drought index shows that the impact of droughts increases from time to time. Another study (Gebremedhin et al.
2018a) showed an increasing trend in all future temperatures. Examination of past drought balances also revealed that the
lion’s share of the western catchment is covered by wet climates and the eastern catchment is overwhelmed by semi-arid
climates (Abera et al. 2019). Several studies share common sense about the future impact of climate change on Ethiopia’s
hydroclimatic parameters (Funk et al. 2012; Abrha & Hagos 2019).
3.2.4. Change of climate aridity and water resources

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other atmospheric parameters are the main climate factors that affect dryness and
water loss from plant transpiration and evaporation (Bibi et al. 2018; Li & Quiring 2021). Various researchers examine how
climate change affects the availability of water in various Ethiopian regions (Frederick & Major 1997; Watts et al. 2015;
Abrha & Hagos 2019; Tabari 2020). The impact of climate change on water resources is from domestic water supply to

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Figure 16 | DMI and UNEP-AI values of eastern catchment for future scenarios (a) SSP2-RCP4.5 and (b) SSP-RCP8.5.
hydroelectric power generation and from agricultural use to industrial demand. Climate change affects water availability in
both the eastern and western parts of Ethiopia (Abera et al. 2019). The precipitation and temperature changes in the study
regions are contrary, resulting in opposite changes in the hydrological regimes. Increasing precipitation means increasing
runoff, while increasing temperature leads to decreasing runoff. Consistent increasing temperature projections indicate that
potential ETo may simultaneously increase and lead to a reduction in streamflow. Study shows that runoff in tropical zones
is sensitive to precipitation and temperature change (Hasan et al. 2018). PET is also increasing for both the reference
period and for the projected climate case, which plays a significant role in the water balance system, including surface
runoff, water resource management, harvesting, and ecological water needs (Tadese et al. 2020). Population progress
joined with an increase in potential ETo, and a decrease in water accessibility will make droughts and food insecurity
more common. Consistently increasing temperature projections indicate that potential ETo may simultaneously increase
and lead to a reduction in surface flow (Taye et al. 2015). The increasing aridity could cause even more water to evaporate
into the atmosphere, which would eventually diminish river streamflow and affect how much water is available for crops
and livelihood. Investigating how aridity is changing and the role of climate variables will improve our ability to predict
long-term runoff, improve the efficiency of water resource management, and provide further insights into drought resilience
and disaster mitigation. In addition, changes in aridity significantly affect the water cycle, water resource management, and
desertification. Our results are in good agreement with other studies on projected climate change looking at other areas
(Funk et al. 2012; Alaminie et al. 2021).

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Figure 17 | The spatial variability of aridity indices in western catchment for projected climate change DMI (a–d) and UNEP-AI (e–h).
Figure 18 | The spatial variability of aridity indices in eastern catchment for projected climate change DMI (a–d) and UNEP-AI (e–h).

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4. CONCLUSION
This research aims to identify trends in the spatial distribution of climate parameters related to water availability in semi-arid
Ethiopia based on modeled temperature and precipitation data from 1981 to 2070. Bias-corrected multiple GCMs (CMCC-
ESM2, FGOALS-g3, and MIROC6) of CMIP6 are selected to perform short-range (2011–2040) and mid-range (2041–
2070) high-resolution climate projections concerning the reference period of 1981–2010 under SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-
RCP8.5. We first evaluated the seven GCM outputs of the simulated daily temperature and precipitation results from
CMIP6 and selected the three best models for analysis. The results of this study conclude that CMCC-ESM2, FGOALS-g3,
and MIROC6 are in the best agreement with ground observation data (1981–2010) for the study area. The most important
climatic parameters (precipitation) have decreased in the last decades for both catchment areas. The temperature rises in
the other results of both catchments for the historical record. In general, the decrease in precipitation and the increase in
temperature are of high intensity in the western catchment compared to the eastern catchment. The AIs followed a similar
downward trend with higher intensity in the western catchment than in the eastern one. The potential ETo in the reference
period increased alarmingly by 14 mm/year in the western catchment. This is a result of recent decades’ rising temperature
intensity. The findings indicate that both study locations’ climates are expected to become noticeably warmer than they are
now within the next few decades. The temperature increment is higher for the mid-range (2041–2070) than short-range
(2011–2040) for both SSPs. The results show that UNEP-AI is better than DMI in representing the coming climate conditions
for both catchments. The overall spatial pattern of drought remains stable between 1981 and 2070, but important quantitative
shifts toward more drought will occur in the western catchment and in the northeastern and southern parts of the eastern
catchment. Finally, the researchers hope that the results of the present study will prove helpful in future planning, assessment,
and management of water resources to plan and act accordingly to the coming impacts of climate change and to focus on
climate-vulnerable areas through necessary precautions. We believe that researchers go through the climate change impact
on water resources of the study regions and contribute to a better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of
drought on water resources.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author expresses gratitude to all administrative bodies for providing the information required for this research project. I
want to give deep thanks to the anonymous reviewer for their supportive and constructive reviews, which significantly
improved the quality of the paper.
STATEMENTS AND DECLARATIONS

To the utmost of my understanding, I verify that the information encompassed herein is precise and all-inclusive. I hereby
state that this task has not been formerly issued and has not been proposed for publishing in any journal.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
Both authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were per-
formed by Mr Tesema Kebede and Mrs Kidist Demessie. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Mr Tesema Kebede.
Mrs Kidist Demessie read and approved the final manuscript.
FUNDING
The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

All relevant data are included in the paper or its Supplementary Information.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare there is no conflict.

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© 2024 The Authors Journal of Water and Climate Change Vol 15 No 4, 1507 doi: 10.2166/wcc.2024.

Characterizing the aridity indices and potential evapotranspiration using CMIP6-GCMs

Tesema Kebede Seifu a, b, * and Kidist Demessie Eshetua,b

• Using CMIP6 climate models.

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2. MATERIALS AND METHODS

2.1. The study area

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2.2. Climatic data

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2.3. Data analysis

2.3.1. Potential evapotranspiration

a ¼ (6:75 107 )I3 (7:71 105 )I2 þ (1:792 102 )I þ 0:49239

2.3.2. Aridity indices

2.3.3. De Martone index

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Index Type of climate Index value

De Martone aridity index Arid DMI , 10

2.3.4. UNEP aridity index

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1. Model selection and future climate projection

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Table 2 | The GCMs applied, the institution, and the sources

Statistical analysis Correlation coefﬁcient RMSE R2 PBIAS NSE

3.2. Historical and projected analysis of climate variables

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Western catchment Eastern catchment

Mean precipitation (mm/year) Time RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Baseline 1981–2010 1,588.35 1,588.35 595.32 595.32

Western catchment Eastern catchment

Mean precipitation (mm/year) Time RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Baseline 1981–2010 23.37 23.37 22.38 22.38

3.2.2. Potential evapotranspiration

3.2.3. Aridity indices

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Western catchment Eastern catchment

Evapotranspiration variations in mm/year Time RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Baseline 1981–2010 1,451.32 1,451.32 1,202.13 1,202.13

West catchment East catchment

DMI value Climate class Area (km2) % Area (km2) %

DMI , 10 Arid – – 30,299.86 33.54

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West catchment East catchment

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3.2.4. Change of climate aridity and water resources

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STATEMENTS AND DECLARATIONS

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

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