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Matt Wiley and Joshua F. Wiley
Joshua F. Wiley
Columbia City, IN, USA
Trademarked names, logos, and images may appear in this book. Rather
than use a trademark symbol with every occurrence of a trademarked
name, logo, or image we use the names, logos, and images only in an
editorial fashion and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no
intention of infringement of the trademark. The use in this publication
of trade names, trademarks, service marks, and similar terms, even if
they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression of
opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights.
While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true
and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the
editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any
errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no
warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained
herein.
Conventions
Bold lowercase letters are used to refer to a vector, for example, x . Bold
uppercase letters are used to refer to a matrix, for example, X .
Generally, the Latin alphabet is used for data and the Greek alphabet is
used for parameters. Mathematical functions are indicated with
parentheses, for example, f (·).
In the text, reference to R code or function will be in monospaced
font like this. R function names have parentheses included to
help indicate it is a function, such as mean() to indicate the mean
function in R .
Package Setup
Throughout the book, we will make use of many different R packages
that make tasks easier or provide more robust or sophisticated
graphing and analysis options.
Although not required for readers, we make use of the
checkpoint package to help ensure the book is reproducible [23]. If
you do not care about reproducibility and are happy to take your
chances that our code that worked with one version of R and packages
also works with whatever versions you have, then you can just skip
reading this section. If you want reproducibility, but do not care why or
how it works, then just create R scripts for the code for each chapter,
save them, and then run the checkpoint package at the beginning. If
you care and want to know why and how it all works, read on the next
few paragraphs.
Details on Reproducibility
The many additional packages available for R are one of its greatest
strengths. However, they also create some challenges. For example, as a
reader, suppose that on your computer, you have R v3.4.3 installed
and as part of that in January you had installed the ggplot2 package
for graphs. By default, you will have whatever version of ggplot2 was
available in January when you installed it. Now in one chapter, we tell
you that you need both the ggplot2 and cowplot packages. Because
you already had ggplot2 installed, you do not need to install it again.
However, suppose that you did not have the cowplot package
installed. So, whenever you happen to be reading that chapter, you
attempt to install the cowplot package, let’s say it’s in April. You will
now by default get the latest version of cowplot available for that
version of R as of April.
Now imagine a second reader comes along and also had R v3.4.3
but had neither the ggplot2 nor the cowplot package installed. They
also read the chapter in April, but they install both packages in April, so
they get the latest version of both packages available in April for R
v3.4.3 .
Even though both you and the other reader had the same version of
R installed, you will end up with different package versions from each
other, and likely different versions yet from whatever versions we used
to write the book.
The end result is that different people, even with the same version
of R, very likely are using different versions of different packages. This
can pose a major challenge for reproducibility. If you are reading a
book, it can be a frustration because code does not seem to work as we
said it would. If you are using code in production or for scientific
research or decision-making, nonreproducibility can pose an even
bigger challenge.
The solution to standardize versions across people and ensure
results are fully reproducible is to control not only the version of R but
also the version of all packages. This requires a different approach to
package installation and management than the default system, which
uses the latest package versions from CRAN. The checkpoint
package is designed to solve this challenge. It does require some extra
steps and processes to use, and at first may seem a nuisance, but the
payoff is that you can be guaranteed that you are not only using the
same version of R but also the same version of all packages.
To understand how the checkpoint package works, we need a bit
more background regarding how R ’s libraries and package system
work.
Mainstream R packages are distributed through CRAN. Package
authors can submit new versions of their packages to CRAN, and CRAN
updates nightly. For some operating systems, CRAN just stores the
package source code, such as for Linux machines. For others, such as
Windows operating systems, CRAN builds precompiled package
binaries and hosts those. CRAN keeps old source code but generally not
old binary packages for long. On a local machine, when
install.packages is run, R goes online to a repository, by default
CRAN, finds the package name, downloads it, and installs it into a local
library . The local library is basically just a directory on your own
machine. R has a default location it likes to use as its local library, and
by default when you install packages, they are added to the default
library. Once a package is installed, when it is loaded or opened using
library(), R goes to its default library, finds a package with the
same name, and opens it.
The checkpoint package works by creating a new library on the
local machine, for a particular version of R for a particular date. Then it
scans all the R script files in R ’s current working directory—you can
identify this using the getwd() function—and identifies any calls to
the library() or require() functions. Then it goes and checks
whether those packages are installed in the local library. If they are not,
it goes to a snapshot of CRAN taken by another server setup to support
the checkpoint package. That way, checkpoint can install the
version of the package available from a specific date. In that way, the
checkpoint package can ensure that you have the same specific
version of R and specific version of all packages that we used when
writing the book. Or if you are trying to re-run some analysis from a
year ago, you can get the same version of those packages on a new
computer.
Assuming that you have the following code in an R script, you can
use the checkpoint package to read the R script and find the call to
library(data.table), and it will install the data.table
package, which is a great package for data management [29]. If you do
not want checkpoint to look in the current working directory, you
can specify the project path, as we do to the book in this example. You
can also change where checkpoint sets its library to another folder
location, instead of the default location, which we also do. We
accomplish both of these using variables set as part of our R project,
book_directory and checkpoint_directory . If you are using
checkpoint on your own machine, set those variables to the relevant
directories, for example, as book_directory <-
"path/to/your/directory" . Note that whatever folder you
choose, R will need read and write privileges for that folder.
library(checkpoint)
checkpoint("2018-09-28", R. version = "3.5.1",
project = book_directory,
checkpointLocation = checkpoint_directory,
scanForPackages = FALSE,
scan.rnw.with.knitr = TRUE, use.knitr = TRUE)
library(data.table)
options(
width = 70,
stringsAsFactors = FALSE,
digits = 2)
Data Setup
One of the datasets we will use throughout this book is a longitudinal
study, the Americans’ Changing Lives (ACL) [45]. This is publicly
available data and can be downloaded by going to
http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR04690.v7 .
The Americans’ Changing Lives (ACL) is a longitudinal study with
five waves of data, shown in Table I-1 .
Wave Year
W1 1986
W2 1989
W3 1994
W4 2002
W5 2011
load ("../ICPSR_04690/DS0001/04690-0001-
Data.rda")
ls ()
## [1]
"book_directory" "checkpoint_directory"
## [3]
"da04690.0001" "render_apress"
setnames(acl, names(acl), c(
"ID", "Sex", "RaceEthnicity", "SESCategory",
"Employment_W1", "BMI_W1", "Smoke_W1",
"PhysActCat_W1",
"AGE_W1",
"SWL_W1", "InformalSI_W1", "FormalSI_W1",
"SelfEsteem_W1", "Mastery_W1",
"SelfEfficacy_W1",
"CESD11_W1", "NChronic12_W1",
"Employment_W2", "BMI_W2", "Smoke_W2",
"PhysActCat_W2",
"InformalSI_W2", "FormalSI_W2",
"SelfEsteem_W2", "Mastery_W2",
"SelfEfficacy_W2",
"CESD11_W2", "NChronic12_W2"
))
acl[, ID := factor(ID)]
acl[, SESCategory := factor(SESCategory)]
acl[, SWL_W1 := SWL_W1 * -1]
Joshua F. Wiley
is a lecturer in the Monash Institute of Cognitive and Clinical
Neurosciences and School of Psychological Sciences at Monash
University. He earned his PhD from the University of California, Los
Angeles, and completed his postdoctoral training in primary care and
prevention. His research uses advanced quantitative methods to
understand the dynamics between
psychosocial factors, sleep, and other
health behaviors in relation to
psychological and physical health. He
develops or codevelops a number of R
packages including varian , a package
to conduct Bayesian scale-location
structural equation models, and
MplusAutomation , a popular package
that links R to the commercial Mplus
software, and miscellaneous functions to
explore data or speed up analysis in
JWileymisc .
library(checkpoint)
checkpoint("2018-09-28", R.version = "3.5.1",
project = book_directory,
checkpointLocation = checkpoint_directory,
scanForPackages = FALSE,
scan.rnw.with.knitr = TRUE, use.knitr = TRUE)
library(knitr)
library(ggplot2)
library(cowplot)
library(MASS)
library(JWileymisc)
library(data.table)
1.1 Distribution
Visualizing the Observed Distribution
Many statistical models require that the distribution of a variable be
specified. Histograms use bars to graph a distribution and are probably
the most common graph used to visualize the distribution of a single
variable. Although relatively rare, stacked dot plots are another
approach and provide a precise way to visualize the distribution of data
that shows the individual data points. Finally, density plots are also
quite common and are graphed by using a line that shows the
approximate density or amount of data falling at any given value.
ggplot(mtcars, aes(mpg)) +
geom_dotplot()
Figure 1-1 Stacked dot plot of miles per gallon from old cars
As a brief aside, much of the code for ggplot2 follows the format
shown in the following code snippet. In our case, we wanted a dot plot,
so the geometric object, or “geom”, is a dot plot (geom_dotplot() ).
Many excellent online tutorials and books exist to learn how to use the
ggplot2 package for graphs, so we will not provide a greater
introduction to ggplot2 here. In particular, Hadley Wickham, who
develops ggplot2, has a recently updated book on the package,
ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis [109], which is an excellent
guide. For those who prefer less conceptual background and more of a
cookbook, we recommend the R Graphics Cookbook by Winston Chang
[20].
ggplot(the-data, aes(variable-to-plot)) +
geom_type-of-graph()
Unlike a dot plot that plots the raw data, a histogram is a bar graph
where the height of the bar is the count of the number of values falling
within the range specified by the width of the bar. You can vary the
width of bars to control how many nearby values are aggregated and
counted in one bar. Narrower bars aggregate fewer data points and
provide a more granular view. Wider bars aggregate more and provide
a broader view. A histogram showing the distribution of sepal lengths
of flowers from the famous iris dataset is shown in Figure 1-2.
ggplot(iris, aes(Sepal.Length)) +
geom_histogram()
ggplot(data.table(lynx = as.vector(lynx)),
aes(lynx)) +
geom_histogram()
ggplot(data.table(lynx = as.vector(lynx)),
aes(log(lynx))) +
geom_histogram()
Density Plots
Another common tool to visualize the observed distribution of data is
by plotting the empirical density. The code for ggplot2 is identical to
that for histograms except that geom_histogram() is replaced with
geom_density() . The code follows and the result is shown in Figure
1-5.
ggplot(iris, aes(Sepal.Length)) +
geom_density()
Figure 1-5 This is the density plot for our sepal lengths
Empirical density plots include some degree of smoothing, because
with continuous variables, there is never going to be many observations
at any specific value (e.g., it may be that no observation has a value of
3.286, even though there are values of 3.281 and 3.292). Empirical
density plots show the overall shape of the distribution by applying
some degree of smoothing. At times it can be helpful to adjust the
degree of smooth to see a coarser (closer to the raw data) or smoother
(closer to the “distribution”) graph. Smoothing is controlled in
ggplot2 using the adjust argument. The default, which we saw in
Figure 1-5, is adjust = 1. Values less than 1 are “noisier” or have less
smoothing, while values greater than 1 increase the smoothness. We
compare and contrast noisier in Figure 1-6 vs. very smooth in Figure 1-
7.
ggplot(iris, aes(Sepal.Length)) +
geom_density(adjust = .5)
ggplot(iris, aes(Sepal.Length)) +
geom_density(adjust = 5)
VI
On his return to Philadelphia, Jefferson found himself the center of a
remarkable newspaper controversy. Fascinated by the beauty of Marie
Antoinette, Edmund Burke of England had written his bitter attack, not only
on the excesses of the French Revolution, but upon its democratic
principles as well. It was the fashion in those days to conceal a hate of
democracy under the cloak of a simulated horror over the crimes of the
Terrorists. Thomas Paine had replied to Burke with his brilliant and
eloquent defense of democracy, ‘The Rights of Man.’ In American circles
where democracy was anathema, and even republicanism was discussed
with cynicism, the Burke pamphlet was received with enthusiasm. It was
not until some time later that ‘The Rights of Man’ reached New York, albeit
its nature was known and there had been a keen curiosity to see it. Early in
May, Madison had promised Jefferson to secure a copy as soon as possible.
He understood that the pamphlet had been suppressed in England, and that
Paine had found it convenient to retire to Paris. ‘This,’ he wrote, ‘may
account for his not sending copies to friends in this country.’[321] At length
a single copy arrived and was loaned by its owner to Madison, who passed
it on to Jefferson. He read it with enthusiasm. Here was a spirited defense of
democracy, and of the fight the French were waging for their liberties; here
an excoriation of the prattle in high social and governmental circles of the
advantage, if not necessity, for titles of nobility. Here was not only an
answer to Burke, but to John Adams, whose ‘Discourses of Davilla’ had
been running for weeks in Fenno’s paper, and had been copied extensively
in other journals with a similar slant. Jefferson was immensely pleased.
Before he had finished with it, the owner had called upon Madison for
its return, as arrangements had been made for its publication by a
Philadelphia printer. It was agreed that Jefferson should send it directly to
the print shop, and in the transmission he wrote a brief explanation of the
delay, and added: ‘I am extremely pleased to find it will be reprinted here,
and that something is at length to be publicly said against the political
heresies which have sprung up among us. I have no doubt our citizens will
rally a second time round the standard of “Common Sense.” ’
To this note he attached so little importance that he kept no copy. With
astonishment he found that the printer had used his note as the preface, with
his name and official title as Secretary of State. The general conviction that
the word ‘heresies’ was meant to apply to the Adams papers sufficiently
indicates the popular interpretation of their trend. The storm broke.
Major Beckwith, the British Agent, hastened to express his pained
surprise to Washington’s Secretary at the recommendation by the Secretary
of State of a pamphlet which had been suppressed in England. The secretary
was sufficiently impressed by the scandalized tone of the aristocratic
society of Philadelphia, which was usually lionizing some degenerate
members of the European nobility, to write his chief in detail. When
Randolph dined with Mrs. Washington, Lear retailed it to him, and the
suggestion was made that Jefferson should know. Thus there was something
more than a tempest in a teapot. Everywhere men were partisans of the
pamphlets of Burke or Paine, the aristocrats on one side, the democrats on
the other, the stoutest of the republicans everywhere delighted with ‘The
Rights of Man.’ This was true in even the small towns and the villages of
far places. One traveler passing through Reading was surprised to find the
two pamphlets the ‘general topic of conversation,’ and he was assured of
the delight that awaited him in the reading of Paine’s.[322] All too long had
the Americans been drugged with Fenno’s deification of the upper classes
—with John Adams’s ‘Discourses’ on the necessity of ‘distinctions’—and
here was old ‘Common Sense’ back again in the old form slashing the
aristocrats fore and aft. The press responded to the popular demand, and
everywhere ‘The Rights of Man’ was being published serially to be eagerly
read by the thousands who had not seen the pamphlet. But it was not all
one-sided. If the ‘Painites’ wrote furiously in some papers, the ‘Burkites’
were prolific in Fenno’s and a few others. In the fashionable drawing-rooms
a poll would have shown a decided preference for the defender of
aristocracy who had wept so eloquently over the woes of a frivolous Queen.
Nowhere was Burke so popular and Paine so loathed as in the home of
Adams, the Vice-President. ‘What do you think of Paine’s pamphlet?’ asked
Dr. Rush, to whom society was cooling because of his democratic
tendencies. The second official of the Republic hesitated as if for dramatic
effect, and then, solemnly laying his hand upon his heart, he answered, ‘I
detest that book and its tendency from the bottom of my heart.’ Indeed,
most of the Federalists were frankly with Burke. ‘Although Mr. Burke may
have carried his veneration for old establishments too far, and may not have
made sufficient allowance for the imperfections of human nature in the
conflict of the French Revolution,’ wrote Davie to Judge Iredell, ‘yet I think
his letter contains a sufficient amount of intelligence to have rescued him
from the undistinguishing abuse of Paine.’[323]
With most of the Federalist leaders in sympathy with Burke, few
ventured to attack Paine in the open. Not so with Adams who was
spluttering mad over the Jefferson ‘preface.’ He was positive that the
publication of Paine’s pamphlet in this country had been instigated by his
former colleague at Paris.[324] To him the pamphlet of Paine, the ‘preface’
of Jefferson, the acclaim for both on the part of the people was but a
devilish conspiracy of Jefferson’s to pull him down. ‘More of Jefferson’s
subterranean tricks.’ And with this conviction, John Quincy Adams, the
son, then in Boston, took up a trenchant pen to write the articles of
‘Publicola’ for the ‘Centinel,’ sneering at the Jeffersonian note to the
printer, assailing Paine and democracy, and stoutly defending the
governmental forms of England. So well did he discharge his filial duty that
his articles were published in pamphlet form in England by the friends of
Burke, and many of the Federalist papers reproduced them as they
appeared.
Then the newspaper battle began in earnest. Many indignant democrats
rushed to the attack of ‘Publicola’ with all the greater zest because of the
belief that ‘Publicola’ was none other than ‘Davilla’ himself. ‘America will
not attend to this antiquated sophistry,’ wrote one, ‘whether decorated by
the gaudy ornaments of a Burke, the curious patch-work of a Parr to which
all antiquity must have contributed its prettiest rags and tatters, or the
homely ungraceful garb which has been furnished her by Mr. John
Adams.’[325] Another suggested that ‘Publicola’ would soon cease to write
since ‘the time for the new election is approaching,’ although the
‘Discourses’ might be continued without danger since ‘dullness, like the
essence of opium, sets every reader to sleep before he has passed the third
sentence.’[326] As for ‘Publicola,’ his letters were ‘being brought forward to
persuade the people that an hereditary nobility, and, of consequence, high
salaries, pomp and parade are essential to the prosperity of the country.’[327]
In Boston, where the letters were appearing, ‘Agricola’ and ‘Brutus’ began
spirited replies in the rival paper.[328] Other writers, with less grace and
force, joined in the fray. Who are to constitute our nobility, demanded
‘Republican,’ our moneyed men—the speculators? If so ‘Dukes, Lords and
Earls will swarm like insects gendered by the sun,’ and the worn-out soldier
who had been tricked out of his paper would have the satisfaction of
‘bowing most submissively to their lordships while seated in their
carriages.’[329]
But Adams was not without his defenders. ‘An American’ declared that
all the abuse was ‘designed as a political ladder by which to climb.’
Miserable creatures! ‘Ages after the tide of time has swept their names into
oblivion, the immortal deeds of Adams will shine on the brightest pages of
history.’[330] ‘The Ploughman’ indignantly resented the insinuation that
Adams had written the ‘Publicola’ letters. In truth, ‘his friends consider Dr.
Adams as being calumniated’ by having such sentiments ascribed to him.
[331] To all the ‘hornets’ that were buzzing about Adams, Fenno felt he
could be indifferent, for they had no stings. They were merely nonentities
trying to give consequence to their scribblings by appearing to be answering
the Vice-President.
Meanwhile, Jefferson was keenly enjoying the turmoil. We wish it were
possible to trace it all to his contrivance, for nothing could have served his
purpose better. To have foreseen that the writing of a few simple lines
would have awakened the militant republicanism of the country and have
aroused the democratic impulses of the inert mass would have been
complimentary to his political genius. But this is not the only instance
where a clever politician with the reputation of a magician has stumbled
forward. There is no doubt that Jefferson was astonished and embarrassed
on learning that the printer had made an unauthorized use of his personal
note. He admitted to Washington that he had Adams’s writings in mind, but
that nothing was more remote from his thoughts than of becoming ‘a
contributor before the public.’ However, he was not impressed with the
reflections on his taste. ‘Their real fear,’ he added, ‘is that this popular and
republican pamphlet ... is likely ... to wipe out all the unconstitutional
doctrines which their bellwether, Davilla, has been preaching for a twelve-
month.’[332] This explanation was enough for Knox, who wrote accordingly
to Adams,[333] but not enough for Jefferson who sent a frank explanation to
Adams with an expression of regret. In generous mood, the latter accepted
the explanation with the protestation that their old friendship was ‘still dear
to my heart,’ and that ‘there is no office I would not resign rather than give
a just occasion for one friend to desert me.’[334]
Madison, to whom Jefferson had sent a similar explanation, had assumed
that there had been a mistake or an imposition, but he could see no reason
for indignation on the part of Adams or his friends. ‘Surely,’ he wrote, ‘if it
be innocent and decent for one servant of the public to write against its
government, it cannot be very criminal or indecent in another to patronize a
written defence of the principles on which that Government is
founded.’[335]
However much Jefferson may have regretted the unauthorized use of his
letter, he rejoiced in its effect. He wrote Paine that the controversy had
awakened the people, shown the ‘monocrats’ that the silence of the masses
concerning the teachings of ‘Davilla’ did not mean that they had been
converted ‘to the doctrine of king, lords and commons,’ and that they were
‘confirmed in their good old faith.’[336] The incident had established
Jefferson in the public mind as the outstanding leader of democracy, had set
the public tongue to wagging on politics again. More was involved in the
pamphlets of Burke and Paine than differences over the French Revolution.
The keynote of Burke’s was aristocracy and privilege; that of Paine’s was
democracy and equal rights. The former was the gospel of the American
Federalists; the latter the covenant of the American Democracy. Studying
the reactions with his characteristic keenness, Jefferson was convinced that
the time was ripe to mobilize for the inevitable struggle.
VII
Suddenly the bubble showed signs of bursting. A New York bank stopped
discounting for some of the speculators. Messengers hurried forth with the
ominous news, horses’ hoofs hammering the Jersey roads to Philadelphia,
where there was consternation and a falling-off in buying.[350] Pay-day had
not yet come, but it was on the way, and men began to regain their senses.
Then came the emergence of the political phase. ‘Does history afford an
instance,’ asked one observer, ‘where inequality in property, without any
adequate consideration, ever before so suddenly took place in the world? or
the basis of the power and influence of an Aristocracy was created?’[351] A
Boston paper commented significantly on the ease with which the mere
opening and closing of the galleries of Congress could serve the purposes of
speculation. ‘How easily might this be done should any member of
Congress be inclined to speculate.’[352]
Thus the talk of a ‘corrupt squadron’ in the First Congress was not the
invention of Jefferson—it was the talk of the highways and the byways, the
coffee-houses and the taverns, and we find it recurring in the
correspondence of the public men of the period. Everywhere sudden
fortunes sprang up as if by magic. There was a rumbling and grumbling in
the offing. With the people thinking more seriously of Madison’s fight for
discrimination, he began to loom along with Jefferson as a prospective
leader against the ‘system.’ With the discovery that the law had been
violated in the subscription of more than thirty shares, it was hoped that it
would ‘draw the attention of Madison ... immediately on the meeting of
Congress’ and that ‘the whole proceedings ... be declared nugatory.’[353]
Then came the election of Bank directors in the fall, and indignation
flamed when the prizes went to leaders in the Congress that had created the
Bank—to Rufus King, Samuel Johnson of North Carolina, William Smith
of South Carolina, Jeremiah Wadsworth of the ‘fast sailing vessels,’ John
Laurance of New York, William Bingham of Philadelphia, Charles Carroll
of Carrollton, George Cabot, Fisher Ames, and Thomas Willing, the partner
of Robert Morris.
Members of Congress had speculated heavily and profitably on their
knowledge of their own intent in legislation; they were owners of bank
scrip of the Bank they created, and their leaders were on the board of
directors. There was talk among the people of a ‘corrupt squadron,’ and
Jefferson did not invent the term; he found it in the street and used it.
Though Hamilton, scrupulously honest, was not involved in proceedings
that were vicious, if not corrupt, many of his lieutenants were, and that, for
the purposes of politics, made an issue.
But Hamilton was in the saddle, booted and spurred, and riding hard
toward the realization of his conception of government, followed by an
army that fairly glittered with the brilliancy of many of his field marshals,
and which was imposing in the financial, social, and cultural superiority of
the rank and file; an army that could count on the greater part of the press to
publish its orders of the day, and on the beneficiaries of its policies to fill its
campaign coffers. And it was at this juncture that Jefferson began the
mobilization of an army that would seem uncouth and ragged by
comparison. The cleavage was distinct; the ten-year war was on.
As a preliminary to the story of the struggle, it is important to know
more of the character and methods of the man who dared challenge
Hamilton’s powerful array and something of the social atmosphere in
Philadelphia where the great battles were fought.
CHAPTER V
II
III
IV
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