90042

Spring 2024
Solar Industry Update

David Feldman
Jarett Zuboy
Krysta Dummit, Solar Energy Technologies Office
Dana Stright
Matthew Heine
Shayna Grossman, ORISEa Fellow
Robert Margolis a Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education
May 14, 2024 Photo by U.S. Department of Energy

Agenda
1 Global Solar Deployment

2 U.S. PV Deployment
3 PV System Pricing
4 Global Manufacturing
5 Component Pricing
6 Market and Policy
7 U.S. PV Imports
NREL | 2
Executive Summary
Global Solar Deployment PV System and Component Pricing
• IEA reported that in 2023, 407–446 GWdc of PV was installed globally, bringing • The median system price of large-scale utility-owned PV systems in 2023 was
cumulative PV installs to 1.6 TWdc. $1.27/Wac—relatively flat since 2018.
• The median price for residential PV systems reported by EnergySage increased 6.3%
– China continues to dominate the global market, representing ~60% of 2023
y/y to $2.8/Wdc—in-line with mid-2020 price levels.
installs, up 120% y/y. The rest of the world was up 30% y/y.
• Global polysilicon spot prices fell 22% from mid-January ($8.70/kg) to late April
– The U.S. was the second-largest market in terms of cumulative and annual ($6.76/kg), approaching the lowest nominal price seen over the past decade.
installations.
• The recent plunge in global module prices leveled off, staying around $0.11/Wdc in Q1
• Analysts project that cumulative global PV installations will reach 2 TWdc – 5 TWdc by 2024.
2030 and 4 TWdc – 15 TWdc by 2050.
• In Q4 2023, the average U.S. module price ($0.31/Wdc) was down 5% q/q and down
U.S. PV Deployment 22% y/y, but at a 140% premium over the global spot pricing.
• In 2023, PV represented approximately 54% of new U.S. electric generation capacity,
Global Manufacturing
compared to 6% in 2010.
• In 2023, global PV shipments were approximately 564 GW—an increase of 100% from
• Solar still represented only 11.2% of net summer capacity and 5.6% of annual
2022.
generation in 2023.
• In 2023, 98% of PV shipments were mono c-Si technology, compared to 35% in 2015.
• However, 22 states generated more than 5% of their electricity from solar, with
California leading the way at 28.2%. • N-type mono c-Si grew to 63% of global PV shipments—up from 51% in 2022 (and 5%
• EIA reported that the United States installed 26.3 GWac (~32 GWdc) of PV in 2023, in 2019).
ending the year with 137.5 GWac of cumulative PV installations. • In 2023, the United States produced about 7 GW of PV modules.
• SEIA, which has different definitions of “placed-in-service,” reported 40.3 GWdc of PV
installed in 2023, 186.5 GWdc cumulative.
U.S. PV Imports
• According to U.S. Census data, 55.6 GWdc of modules and 3.7 GWdc of cells were
• The United States installed approximately 26.0 GWh / 8.8 GWac of energy storage onto
imported in 2023, an increase of 87% y/y and 46% y/y, respectively.
the electric grid in 2023, up 34% y/y.
• In Q1 2024, PV module imports held relatively steady for the third straight quarter at
NREL | 3
A list of acronyms and abbreviations is available at the end of the presentation. 15.2 GWdc.
Agenda
• IEA reported that in 2023, 407–446 GWdc of PV was
1 Global Solar Deployment installed globally, bringing cumulative PV installs to 1.6
TWdc.
2 U.S. PV Deployment – China continues to dominate the global market,
representing ~60% of 2023 installs, up 120% y/y. The
3 PV System Pricing rest of the world was up 30% y/y.
– The United States was the second-largest market in
4 Global Manufacturing terms of cumulative and annual installations.
5 Component Pricing • Analysts project that cumulative global PV installations will

reach 2 TWdc – 5 TWdc by 2030 and 4 TWdc – 15 TWdc by
6 Market and Policy 2050.
7 U.S. PV Imports
NREL | 4
Global Annual PV Capacity • From 2014 to 2023, global PV capacity additions
grew from 40 GWdc to between 407 GWdc and 446
Additions by Country GWdc.
– The spread in estimated global installations is
500 due to uncertainty in Chinese reporting.
Rest of World – In 2023, global PV installs increased 73%–91%
450
Rest of Europe y/y.
PV Annual Installations (GWdc)
400 Germany
United States • The total cumulative installed capacity for PV at the
350 India end of 2023 reached 1.6 TWdc.
300 Japan
China • At least 29 countries installed more than 1 GWdc in
250 2023, and 19 countries have a cumulative capacity
200 above 10 GWdc.
150 • China continues to dominate the global market,
100
representing ~60% of 2023 installs, up 120% y/y.
The rest of the world was up 30% y/y.
50
– China was the last country to represent over
0 half the global solar market, in 2017 (51%).
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: China’s National Energy Administration reports values in Wac. Therefore, there is uncertainty in Wdc capacity due to differing assumptions on inverter loading ratio. The
“upside” reflects a higher inverter loading ratio. NREL | 5
Sources: IEA, Snapshot of Global PV Markets: 2024; Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2023.
Top PV Markets • IEA reports that the large stockpile of PV modules
increased further in 2023 to 150 GWdc. China has tried
to absorb some of the overcapacity (thus the large
• In 2023, several countries had very large growth years, with China, installation year). However, the large increase in
Germany, and Italy roughly doubling 2022 installations. manufacturing capacity, the switch from PERC to
TOPCon, and insufficient demand have exacerbated the
situation.
Cumulative PV Deployment, 2023 (1.6 TWdc) Annual PV Deployment, 2023 (407 GWdc to 446 GWdc)
800 300
700 662 China upside
250 235.5
Installations (GWdc)
600
500 200
400 150
300 100
200 170 165 150
100
95 91 82
38 35 30 28
50 33.2
16.6 14.3 11.9 5.3 27.7 38.6
36 7.7 6.3 6.0 4.2
0 0
Note: China’s National Energy Administration reports values in Wac. Therefore, there is uncertainty in Wdc capacity due to differing assumptions on inverter loading ratio. The
“upside” reflects a higher inverter loading ratio. NREL | 6
Sources: IEA, Snapshot of Global PV Markets: 2024; Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2023.
• The United States, despite being a leading PV market, is
Global PV Penetration below the global average and other leading markets in
terms of PV generation as a percentage of total country
electricity generation, with 6%.
• IEA estimates that in 2023, 6% of global electricity generation came – If California were a country, its PV contribution
from PV. (28%) would be the highest.
25%
Percent of Annual Electricity Generation
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
NREL | 7
Source: IEA, Snapshot of Global PV Markets: 2024.
Long-term Global As of 2022, cumulative global PV capacity was about 1,200 GWdc.
Analysts project that cumulative global PV installations will reach
2 TWdc – 5 TWdc by 2030 and 4 TWdc – 15 TWdc by 2050. Their
Projections results differ largely due to discrepancies in the projections of
China's future capacity.
EIA's Reference Case assumes current energy trends, BNEF's Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) is IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) uses
existing laws and regulations, and select BNEF’s baseline scenario of how the energy assumptions based on the latest policy settings,
economic/technological changes. This is the most transition might evolve as a result of cost-based including energy, climate, and industrial policies.
conservative estimate of those analyzed. technological changes.
• EIA reference case projects over 5 TWdc of PV • IEA STEPS projects over 12.5 GWdc of PV
• BNEF ETS projects over 10 TWdc of PV capacity capacity by 2050, with the United States,
capacity by 2050 with the United States, China, and
India each having over 1 TWdc of cumulative
by 2050, with the U.S., China, India, and
Europe, China, and India each having over
capacity. Europe each having over 1,000 GWdc of
cumulative capacity. 1 TWdc of cumulative capacity and China
having over 6 TWdc of cumulative capacity.
Notes: P = projection. Colored bars represent base case projections for region/country-level estimates. Error bars represent high and low global projections. Not all sources have
data for all categories. EIA reports in GWac while BNEF and IEA report in GWdc. An ILR value of 1.25 was used to convert between GWac and GWdc. NREL | 8
Sources: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2023 ; BNEF, New Energy Outlook 2023 ; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2023
Note: Annual and cumulative solar values assume that China’s National Energy
Chinese Generation Capacity Administration (NEA) reports distributed PV in direct-current terms and utility-
scale PV in alternating-current terms. NEA reported 120 GW of utility-scale PV and
96 GW of distributed PV for 2023. On this slide, ac/dc conversions assume a dc-to-
Additions by Source ac ratio of 1.1 for distributed PV. We use IEA-reported total capacity for Wdc.
Sources: China NEA (1/26/24, 2/28/24, 4/29/24); IEA, National Survey Report of
PV Power Applications in China, 2021.
• In 2023, solar contributed 59% of new generation capacity in China (235 GWdc to 277 • Renewable sources continue to capture a larger
GWdc/207 GWac) and 20% of cumulative capacity (662 GWdc to 704 GWdc /585 GWac). share of China’s growing electric capacity.
– The record for annual solar installed was broken for the third year in a row. – In 2011, renewables made up 26% of 1.1 TWac of
– In 2023, 42% of new PV was distributed, 58% was utility scale. total capacity.
– Wind and solar accounted for 80% of capacity installed in 2023, and together they have – In 2023, renewables made up 50% of 2.9 TWac of
constituted the most capacity installed for 8 years running. total capacity.
– Annual coal and gas additions rose 78% in 2023.
– In Q1 2024, China added 43.6 GWac of PV (21.9 GWac utility scale, 21.6 GWac
distributed).
Annual Capacity Additions (GWac) Cumulative Capacity (GWac)

Solar ac Wind Solar ac Wind
400 353 3,500
Hydro Other Hydro Other 2,895
Nuclear Coal and Gas 3,000 2,545
Nuclear Coal and Gas
300 2,500 2,200 2,373 585
207 1,900 2,011 296
378
191 1,777 244
186 2,000 1,521 1,652 197
200 142 178 1,379 126 168
111 121 125 125 123 111 47 1,500 1,063 1,147 1,258 41 75
96 52 82
15
100 84 34 51 42 29
1,000
500
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
NREL | 9
Note: See slide 9 for installed capacity assumptions.
Sources: BNEF, China Market Outlook 1H 2024: Renewables Rise in Headwinds,
Chinese Market Update 3/7/24; BNEF, China’s New RPS Targets Wind and Solar Deployment, 9/15/23; China
NEA (1/26/24, 2/28/24); PVTech (04/22/24).
• China installed 120 GWac of utility-scale PV in 2023, a 275% increase from 32 GWac installed in 2022.
– Reasons for the surge included declining module prices and increasing construction of renewable energy
“megabases”—gigawatt-scale wind and solar projects sited in remote areas.
– Provincial Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets were another driver.
• For most provinces, the target non-hydro electricity share was raised 1.2 percentage points for 2023 and 1.7 percentage
points for 2024, which has spurred measures promoting wind and solar deployment in some provinces.
• For example, in 2023 Yunnan closed some of its RPS gap by increasing renewable energy compensation rates and
facilitating land approval and interconnection for utility-scale projects.
• The 87 GWac of distributed PV installed in 2023 was 74% higher than the 50 GWac installed in 2022.
– Declining PV equipment prices and high power prices drove demand.
– The rapid deployment has exposed potential constraints including grid-interconnection capacity and
increasing curtailment.
• China deployed 20 GWac of energy storage in 2023, reaching a cumulative 31 GWac and achieving its 30-GWac
goal 2 years early.
– The growth has primarily been driven by provincial mandates.
– As of January 2024, 26 provinces mandated storage with PV projects, with an average storage capacity
requirement equivalent to 12% of the PV capacity.
• In Q1 2024, China installed 46 GWac of new PV—a 36% increase from Q1 2023. NREL | 10
• IEA reports that the war in Ukraine and resulting
European Market reduced gas acquisitions increased the price of
electricity, making PV more competitive.
• A large extent of growth in the EU residential

• Europe's annual PV additions reached a record of nearly sector stems from delayed 2022 projects. Slower
61 GWdc in 2023, up 41% from 2022. growth in this sector is anticipated in 2024.
– In the EU, utility-scale PV made up 34% of new additions (down 6%
• UPV deployment declined in 2023 due to delayed
from 2022), commercial and industrial PV made up 33% of new
auctions, higher grid fees, inflation, and
additions (up 4% from 2022), and residential PV made up 33% of
permitting/grid-connection issues.
new additions (up 2% from 2022).
Sources: : IEA, Snapshot of Global PV Markets: 2024; Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2023.; BNEF, 1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook, NREL | 11
2/19/24; EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2023–2027 - SolarPower Europe
EU Manufacturing Market • In the EU, polysilicon production decreased by 12% from
2022, cell production increased by 42%, module
production increased by 59%, and inverter production
increased by 14%.
• This year, REC Solar Norway shut down their operations.

The only polysilicon manufacturer left in Europe is Wacker
Chemie. They produce 60,000 MT/yr in Germany.
• Norwegian Crystals announced its bankruptcy in August

2023, leaving NorSun as the only ingot/wafer producer in
Europe. NorSun temporarily suspended its operations in
September 2023.
• Solar cell manufacturing in the EU has grown 0.6 GW from

2022, with 7 active companies in this segment.
• There are 57 active module manufacturers in the EU.
• The EU recently adopted a ban on products made with

forced labor (which may impact the EU solar supply chain
by limiting imports from China). Member states will have
to begin applying the regulation in 2027.
Sources: BNEF, 1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook, 2/19/24; EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2023-2027, Solar Power Europe ; About Us, RECOM Technologies, accessed NREL | 12
5/21/24 ; EU to support solar manufacturing in face of “very fragile situation”, PV Tech, 3/4/24 ; European Parliament passes forced labour ban , PV Tech, 4/24/24.
• ABSOLAR reported that Brazil installed around 12 GWac
Brazil Market Update (17 GWdc) of PV this year (IEA reported 12 GWdc). This is
more than Brazil’s entire cumulative capacity in 2020.
• Growth in deployment was driven by sub-5 MW solar

systems, which are eligible for net-metering benefits.
• Small-scale solar faces headwinds from rising

transmission tariffs (due to new 2022 net metering
regulations), difficulty getting permits, competition with
wholesale market, and import taxes on modules.
• In 2023, Brazil ended its import tax exemption for

modules. The country now operates under a tariff rate
quota (TRQ) system where the first 30 GW of imported
modules are exempt and additional imports face tariffs.
• BNEF expects another 17–19 GWdc of solar installations in

2024, with a possibility of a slowdown in the distributed
sector due to the government's efforts to slow this
market.
NREL | 13
Sources: BNEF, 1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook, 2/19/24; BNEF, Trend Newsletter, 3/7/24 ; ABSOLAR - Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar Energy
• IEA reported that India added 16.6 GWdc of PV in
Indian Market Update 2023, down 11% from the record 18.6 GWdc
installed in 2022.
– Most PV installs were centralized systems.
India's Annual PV Capacity Additions (GWdc) – BNEF reported that small-scale project deployment
20 (mostly rooftop PV but also off-grid and agricultural PV)
rose 35% from 2022 and made up about a third of new
18
2023 PV capacity.
16
– BNEF also reported that PV constituted 49% of total
14 capacity added in 2023 and 17% of India’s cumulative
capacity.
12
• BNEF reported that large project costs fell 27%
10
between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023.
8
– Driven primarily by plummeting module prices, Q4
6 2023 saw India’s lowest-ever average project cost.
4 – Analysts expect the lower costs to spur increased
deployment in 2024.
2
– At year end, 105 GWac (~140 GWdc) of large projects
0
were in the development pipeline.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Sources: BNEF, 1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook, 2/19/24; BNEF, 1H 2024 India Renewables Market • A new PV subsidy program may boost deployment
Outlook, 2/29/24; Mercom India Research, Q4 & Annual 2023 India Solar Market Update, 12/23; Mercom Q1 of residential rooftop installations going forward.
2024 India Solar Market Update; Mercom (3/12/24); PV Magazine (2/15/24) ; IEA, Snapshot of Global PV
Markets: 2024; Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2023. NREL | 14
– U.S. trade policies, such as the Uyghur Forced Labor
Prevention Act, favor Indian module imports.
Indian Market Update – The U.S. market provides Indian manufacturers with
higher profit margins compared with the Indian market.
– A Q4 2023 slowdown in exports may be linked to
• Indian module exports grew 230%, from 1.2 GWdc in reduced U.S. demand and/or concerns from U.S. buyers
2022 to 4.1 GWdc in 2023. about the quality of Indian modules.
– The bifacial share of exported modules rose.
• About 97% of 2023 exports went to the United States.
• Mercom estimates India’s module/cell
Indian Module Exports, 2022–2023
manufacturing capacity reached 64.5/5.8 GWdc in
2023, and Mercom projects 150+/75+ GWdc by
4.5 2026—far exceeding actual and projected domestic
4
Exported module deployment.
elsewhere
Module exports from India (GWdc)
3.5 – PVTech estimates there was 29/5.4 GWdc of Indian

3
module/cell capacity at the end of 2023, producing a
total of 12/1 GWdc of modules/cells in 2023.
2.5 Exported
2 to the U.S. • Indian module imports grew 41%, from 11.6 GWdc
1.5
in 2022 to 16.3 GWdc in 2023.
1
– Most imports were from China as record-low prices
made Chinese modules attractive despite a 40% tariff.
0.5
– India’s effort to balance domestic PV manufacturing
0
with domestic deployment has produced a confusing
2022 2023
Sources: BNEF, 1H 2024 India Renewables Market Outlook, 2/29/24; Mercom Clean Energy Insights (3/14/23, array of trade barriers and exemptions, which remain in
2/26/24); Mercom India Research, State of Solar PV Market in India 2024, Spring 2024; TaiyangNews (2/12/24); : flux as of early 2024. NREL | 15
PVTech Research. PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly Report - Release 32 - February 2024.
Global Off-Grid Solar Market
10 • Global sales of solar energy kits reached their
Total
9 ROW
second highest level ever, though they fell from
historical high sales in 2022.
Off-grid PV Product Shipped (millions of units)
India
8
Rest of Africa
Rest of East Africa – Most products were portable lanterns.
7
Kenya However, there were also over 1 million solar
6 home systems sold in 2023, and solar power
5 appliances, such as fans, TVs, refrigerators,
water pumps, and radios.
4
3 • An estimated 116 million people currently benefit

from improved access to energy through off-grid
2
solar energy products.
1
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
NREL | 16
Source: Global Off-Grid Lighting Association, “Global Off-Grid Solar Market Report Semi-Annual Sales and Impact Data.”
U.S. CSP Project Generation
Performance, 2014–2023 • Over the past decade since the LPO-funded
CSP plants came on-line, performance has
generally been more consistent for the trough
35% Solana (Trough+6
hours storage) plants than those using tower technologies,
particularly in 2023.
30% Genesis (Trough)
– Tonopah produced no electricity from March
25% to July, and two of the three Ivanpah towers
Mojave (Trough)
produced no/little electricity for two to
Capacity Factor
20% three months in the first half of 2023.

Ivanpah (Tower)
– Annual weather variation also caused some
15%
of the differences in annual production
Nevada Solar One
10% (Trough) • Absolute capacity factor is not necessarily the
Tonopah
best metric for performance as plants can be
5%
(Tower+10 hours designed and operated differently.
storage) – Tonopah now operates to sell power at night
0% SEGS III-IX
(Trough) (though that would not explain producing
no power during the sunniest part of the
year). NREL | 17
Source: EIA, Form 923.
• In 2023, PV represented approximately 54% of new U.S.
Agenda electric generation capacity, compared to 6% in 2010.
– In 2023, over 40 GWac of new installed capacity was either from
non-carbon emission sources or battery technologies—3 GWac
above the previous record level achieved in 2021.
1 Global Solar Deployment • Solar still represented only 11.2% of net summer capacity
and 5.6% of annual generation in 2023.
2 U.S. PV Deployment – However, 22 states generated more than 5% of their
electricity from solar, with California leading the way at
28.2%.
3 PV System Pricing
• EIA reported that the United States installed 26.3 GWac
4 Global Manufacturing (~32 GWdc) of PV in 2023, ending the year with 137.5 GWac
of cumulative PV installations.
5 Component Pricing – SEIA, which has different definitions of “placed-in-
service,” reported 40.3 GWdc of PV installed in 2023 and
6 Market and Policy 186.5 GWdc cumulative.
7 U.S. PV Imports • The United States installed approximately 26.0 GWh / 8.8
GWac of energy storage onto the electric grid in 2023, up
34% y/y. NREL | 18
U.S. Generation, 2014–2023
• In 2023, the United States generated 4,250 terawatt-
hours (or 4.3 petawatt-hours) of electric power.
2,000
• Energy generation from renewables continued its
1,800 steady upward trend, as a result of increases in solar
generation (and despite a drop in wind and hydro
1,600 Coal generation).
Annual Generation (TWh)
Natural gas
1,400 – Solar and wind generation together accounted for
Nuclear almost as much power as coal generation.
1,200 Renewables
– Solar was on par with hydropower.
22.7% Hydro
1,000 • The percentage of electricity generated by fossil fuels
Wind
in the United States dropped from 67% in 2014 to 59%
800 Solar in 2023, while the percentage of electricity generated
13%
Other by renewable energy sources increased from 13% to
600
10% Geothermal 23% over the same period.
400 10% • In 2023, renewable energy facilities continued to
5.6% produce more electricity than both nuclear and coal
200
4.8% sources, though utility-scale renewable energy
0 generation fell y/y.
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 – Despite an increase in U.S. wind generation capacity,
analysts attributed the drop in wind production to slow
wind speeds in the mid-west in warm months.
Hydropower production dropped due to low water
levels caused by drought.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Electricity Data Browser.” Accessed March 10, 2024; and NREL | 19
an Insight Climate News article (February 27, 2024).
2023 U.S. Generation and Capacity • Solar still represents a small but growing
percentage of the U.S. electric generation mix.
– In 2023, solar represented 11.2% of net
summer capacity and 5.6% of annual
• Renewables are becoming an increasingly large part of the U.S.
generation.
electric generation mix, representing 31% of capacity and 23% of
generation in 2023. • Capacity is not proportional to generation, as
– All non-carbon energy sources—including solar, wind, nuclear, certain technologies (e.g., natural gas) have lower
hydropower, and geothermal—-represented 39% of capacity capacity factors than others (e.g., nuclear).
and 41% of generation in 2023.
2023 U.S. Generation (Total 4,252 TWh) 2023 U.S. Generation Capacity (Total 1.2 TW)
Other
Geothermal 5%
Natural gas 0% Coal
Distributed 15%
42% Natural gas (CC)
Batteries
24%
Coal 0%
Grid Batteries
16% Natural gas (CT)
Other 1.2%
CSP 11%
1.9% DPV
Geothermal Nuclear 0.1%
18% 3.9%
0.4% UPV Natural gas
Wind Wind Nuclear
CSP 7.3% (Other)
10% Hydro 11.9% Hydro 8%
0.1% DPV 6% 6.5% 7%
UPV
1.7%
3.8% NREL | 20
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly” Tables 6.1, 6.1A, February 2024, “Electricity Data Browser,” March 10, 2024.
Solar at Historic Level of 2023 had the third highest level of new electricity generation
on record, with solar, batteries, and wind leading the way.
Deployment According to EIA, planned capacity in 2024 and 2025 would be

the highest on record, though solar would still not exceed the
64 GWac of natural gas installed in 2002.
Rapid natural gas
1954: first nuclear plant (Russia) starts generating deployment 2000s–present
80
Coal Hydro Natural Gas electricity; Congress allows private ownership of nuclear
Nuclear Petroleum Wind reactors; Bell Labs invents first solar cell.
70 Rapid wind, solar, battery
Solar Batteries 1957: first U.S. nuclear plant
Rapid coal & natural gas deployment 2000s–present
60 deployment 1960s–1980s
Capacity Additions (GWac)
50 1921: Lakeside Power Plant in Wisconsin

became the world's first power plant to
burn only pulverized coal. Rapid nuclear deployment
40
1970s and 1980s
Rapid hydro deployment
1930s: New Deal policies bring electricity
30 1910s—1940s
to rural areas and regulate interstate
electricity markets.
20
10 1920: The FPC was established for

licensing hydroelectric projects
0
1940s-60s: Dramatic increase in energy demand causes

Sources: EIA.U.S installed capacity, Form 860. & Electric Power Monthly (March 2024). EIA, Energy Kids.
coal plants to be built. United States rapidly expands
NREL | 21
natural gas pipelines.
New U.S. Capacity Additions,
2014–2023
50 • In 2023, PV represented approximately
45
53.5% of new U.S. electric generation
capacity (37.5% UPV, 16.0% DPV), compared
40 to 6% in 2010.
U.S. Electric Capacity Additions (GWac)
35 Natural gas – Wind represented 13% of added capacity

30
Other and grid-scale batteries an additional
Nuclear 13%, for a total of 79% of capacity
25 Land-based wind additions from those three technologies.
Grid-scale batteries
20
Nuclear
• Over 40 GWac of new installed capacity was
15 Distributed PV
either from non-carbon emission sources or
Utility-scale PV
battery technologies in 2023—3 GWac above
10
the previous record level achieved in 2021.
5
– 2023 wind installations were half their
0 record-level achieved in 2020, though
still the third-leading technology
installed.
Note: “Other” includes coal, geothermal, landfill gas, biomass, and petroleum. NREL | 22
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly” Tables 6.1, 6.2B, 1.1, 1.1A; Forms 860M & 861M. April 2024.
U.S. Generation Capacity Additions and • EIA projects that the percentage of U.S. electric
Retirements by Source: 2013–2023 capacity additions from solar will grow from 54% in
2023 (31 GWac) to 63% in 2024 (43 GWac) and 65% in
and Planned 2024–2025 2025 (42 GWac).
– Natural gas accounted for 18% of new capacity in 2023,
Click here to interactively view though only 7% when subtracting retirements from
these data on Tableau Public. additions. In 2024, there are projected to be more natural
gas retirements than additions, rebounding slightly in
2025.
– 2024 will mark the first time in a decade that simple-cycle,
natural gas turbines additions will exceed combined-cycle
capacity, due in part to natural gas switching from
baseload generation to peak support because of the
growing presence of renewables on the grid.
• In the next two years, EIA projects that PV, storage,
and wind will add 124 GWac of capacity in the United
States, or 92% of additions.
– In contrast, EIA is projecting nearly 20 GW of retirements
from coal, natural gas, and other fossil fuels in that time,
or 89% of retirements.
– Since 2013, a nearly equal volume of coal has been retired
as solar (UPV + DPV) has been added to the grid.
Sources: EIA Form 860M/Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (“Planned” and “Operating”) and EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Table 7e, NREL | 23
downloaded March 2024.
• Approximately 47% of U.S. PV capacity installed in
U.S. Installation Breakdown 2023 was in Texas, Florida, and California.
Annual: EIA (GWac) • Despite a concentration of PV installations in the
top three markets, diversification of growth
continues across the United States.
• The United States installed 26.3 GWac of PV in 2023—up 46%
y/y. – 34 states installed more than 100 MWac in 2023 and
16 states installed more than 500 MWac.
– In 2023, utility-scale (18.4 GWac) and residential (6.6 GWac)
PV were up 34% and 27%, respectively, while C&I (1.3 GWac)
PV was down 16%.
2023 U.S. PV Installations by Region

(26.3 GWac)
Click here to interactively view
these data on Tableau Public.
Click here to
interactively
view these
data on
Tableau
Public.
Note: EIA reports values in Wac which is standard for utilities. The solar industry has traditionally reported in Wdc. NREL | 24
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, and EIA-861 (March 2023, April 2022, February 2021, February 2019).
U.S. Installation Breakdown Unlike the previous slide, these values are in GWdc—not GWac.
Annual: SEIA (GWdc)
• In 2023, 56% of installed capacity occurred in California,
Texas, and Florida. However, 37 states and Puerto Rico,
• SEIA reports that the United States installed 40.3 GWdc* of PV in 2023 installed more than 100 MW.
(186.5 GWdc cumulative)—an annual increase of 76% y/y.
– Texas produced more electricity from solar than
– 30.2 GWdc UPV (+114% y/y), 3.2 GWdc non-residential (+17% y/y),
coal in 2023.
and 6.9 GWdc residential (+14% y/y).
• The reasons for overall 2023 growth varied by market
• Q4 2023 installations totaled 19.6 GWdc.
segment:
45 U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment – A huge surge in residential California installations in

the first half of the year to take advantage of the
40
expiring NEM 2.0 offset lower installation in H2 as
35 Utility
well as declines in other states due to higher
Annual PV Installed (GWdc)
30 Nonresidential PV
interest rates.
25 Residential PV
– Installations of larger, non-residential California
20
projects continued to grow in H2 2023 from NEM
15
2.0 due to the longer development cycle.
10
Community solar projects continued to face
5 interconnection delays, but also expanded into new
0 markets.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
– Utility-scale PV installations grew in large part due
* Wood Mackenzie/SEIA differ from EIA in what is considered an “operational” project.
to stabilization of module supply chains and the
Sources: Wood Mackenzie/SEIA: U.S. Solar Market Insight: Q2 2024. subsequent installations of delayed projects. NREL | 25
U.S. Installation Breakdown
Quarterly: EIA (GWac)
• In Q4 2023, the United Stated installed over 10 GWac
of solar capacity—a first.
Click here to interactively view • According to EIA data, 40% of 2023 installed U.S.
these data on Tableau Public. solar capacity occurred in Q4—relatively consistent
with previous years, though much greater in absolute
terms.
– Utility-scale PV represented 83% of Q4 2023 solar
installations—its highest percentage ever.
• Residential installs fell in the second half of 2023—
the first time since 2017.
13.2
1.5
3.9
Note: EIA reports values in Wac, which is standard for utilities. The solar industry has traditionally reported in Wdc. See the next slide for values reported in Wdc. NREL | 26
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, and EIA-861 (November 2023, February 2022, February 2019).
U.S. Installation Breakdown Unlike the previous slide, these values are
in GWdc—not GWac.
Quarterly: SEIA (GWdc)
• Wood Mackenzie/SEIA reports a record 19.6 GWdc of PV • Florida, Texas, and California represented 57% of Q1
installations in Q4 2023 and 11.8 GWdc in Q1 2024—an increase of installations, despite their residential PV installations being
159% and 79% y/y, respectively. down 21%–51%.
– In Q1 2024, utility-scale installations were up 135% while
residential PV was down 25% y/y. Nonresidential was flat.
25
U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment
Q1 2024 U.S. PV Installations by Region
Utility
(11.8 GWdc)
20 Nonresidential PV
Residential PV
Southwest
Quarterly PV Installed (GWdc)
12%
15 Texas Florida
29% 8%
10
Southeast
California
5 11%
16%
Midwest Northeast
0 9%
9%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Other
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 7%
NREL | 27
Sources: Wood Mackenzie/SEIA: U.S. Solar Market Insight: Q2 2024.
Solar Generation as a Percentage In 2023, 22 states generated more than 5% of
of Total Generation, 2023 their electricity from solar, with California
leading the way at 28.2%.
• Five states (California, Nevada, Massachusetts,

Vermont, and Hawaii) generated more than 15%
of their electricity using solar.
• Three other states generated more than 10% of
their electricity using solar: Utah, Rhode Island,
Arizona.
Nationally, 5.6% of electricity was generated

from solar in 2023—up from 4.8% in 2022.
The roles of utility-scale and distributed solar

vary by state. Southern and Western states rely
more on utility-scale solar, while northern
states and Hawaii rely more on distributed
solar.
NREL | 28
Solar Generation as a Percentage
of Total Generation, 2014–2023 • In 2014, solar produced approximately
0.7% of total U.S. electric generation.
• By 2023, solar grew to about 5.6% of
Click here to interactively view electric generation.
– 3.8% from utility-scale PV (UPV), a nearly
10-fold increase
– 1.8% from distributed PV (DPV), a 7-fold
increase
– 0.1% from concentrating solar power
(CSP)
• 2023 is the first year that solar

has accounted for more than 5% of
U.S. electricity generation.
Note: EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final. Additionally, smaller utilities report information to EIA on
a yearly basis. Therefore, a certain amount of solar data has not yet been reported.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Electricity Data Browser.” Accessed March 12, 2024. NREL | 29
Monthly U.S. Solar Generation,
2014–2023
• Total peak monthly U.S. solar generation increased
Click here to interactively view by a factor of 8.8 from 2014 to 2023.
– U.S. electric generation in December 2023 (during the
low seasonal period of electric generation) was above
the peak solar production in 2019 (brown dashed line).
– In May 2023, solar produced 7.5% of all U.S. electricity
production, and solar produced over 5% of all U.S.
electricity production from March through October of
2023.
• Utility-scale solar electricity production (including

PV and CSP technologies) dropped by 51% from its
summer peak (July 2023) to its winter low
(December 2023), and DPV systems dropped 42%.
– The drop in production would likely be greater without
continued solar deployment throughout the year.
Note: EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final. Additionally, smaller utilities report information to
EIA on a yearly basis. Therefore, a certain amount of solar data have not yet been reported. "U.S.
Total” includes DPV generation.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Monthly and annual electric power operations
by state, sector, and energy source." Accessed March 12, 2024. NREL | 30
Solar Generation as a Percentage
of Total Generation, 2014–2023 • From 2014 to 2023, leading solar
deployment states greatly increased solar
electricity penetration.
Click here to interactively view – Rhode Island and Maine (purple and
brown respectively) have seen
substantial growth since 2019.
• In the past 5 years, 5 states (MA, VT, UT, AZ,

and RI) shifted over 10% of their electricity
generation to solar sources.
– Some of the increase in Massachusetts'
percentage is due to a significant reduction in
total electricity production in the state.
• The United States, as a whole, has a much

lower level (5.6%) of solar generation, but
it has still increased solar generation by
Note: EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final. Additionally, smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly about 723% since 2014.
basis, and therefore a certain amount of solar data has not yet been reported. Net generation includes DPV
generation. Net generation does not include imports and exports to and from each state. Therefore, the
percentage of solar consumed in each state may vary from its percentage of net generation.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), "Monthly and annual electric power operations by state,
sector, and energy source." Accessed March 12, 2024. NREL | 31
U.S. Installation Breakdown • In 2023, 5 states installed >1 GWac (Texas, California, Florida,
Virginia, and Colorado), and 7 installed >1 GWdc (+Ohio,
by State Wisconsin).
– In comparison, 29 countries installed >1 GWdc in 2023,
according to IEA data, as noted on slide 5.
At the end of 2023, there were 137.5 GWac of solar PV systems in the United
States, of which 89.8 GWac were utility-scale PV, 32.9 GWac were residential PV,
and 14.8 GWac were C&I PV.
Cumulative PV Capacity Installed as of Dec. 2023 (MWac) PV Capacity Installed in 2023 (MWac)
California Texas 4,996
Texas 18,476 35,455 California 4,714
Florida 10,352 Florida 2,594
North Carolina 7,150 Virginia 1,121
Arizona 5,552 Colorado 1,068
Nevada 4,802 Wisconsin 861
New York 4,572 Ohio 828
Georgia 4,436 Nevada 791
Virginia 4,172 Arizona 737
Massachusetts 3,954 Residential Pennsylvania 730 Residential
New Jersey 3,446 Indiana 701
Colorado 3,232 C&I North Carolina 680 C&I
Illinois 2,371 Georgia 562
Utah 2,152 Utility-scale New York 558 Utility-scale
South Carolina 1,945 Arkansas 541
Wisconsin 1,806 Illinois 518
Maryland 1,617 New Mexico 342
Minnesota 1,541 Maine 298
New Mexico 1,511 South Carolina 263
Other 18,989 Other 3,416
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Note: EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final. Additionally, smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly basis. Therefore, a certain amount of solar data have not yet
been reported. Arizona’s C&I installations in 2023 were net negative. NREL | 32
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, and EIA-861 (February 2024, February 2023).
Cumulative U.S. Installation
Breakdown by State
At the end of 2023, the United States
>1 GWdc cumulative in 2023
surpassed half of states (27) having >1 GWac
>1 GWac cumulative in 2023
installed cumulatively, with Indiana, Michigan,
Ohio, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania
joining the ranks since 2022.
• The tally rises to 29 states, when looking at
those which have achieved the >1 GWdc
distinction, with Maine, Rhode Island,
Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and Ohio just
crossing that threshold in 2023.
Cumulative
0 – 200 MWac
200 MWac – 1 GWac
1 GWac – 2 GWac
2 GWac – 10 GWac
10 GWac – 35 GWac
> 35 GWac
been reported. NREL | 33
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, and EIA-861 (February 2024, February 2023).
Cumulative U.S. PV Capacity Per
Capita (2023)
• Some large states that ranked high in total cumulative capacity at the end of 2023, such as Texas (#2), Florida (#3) and New
York (#6), are relatively lower in rankings when looking on a watts per capita basis. Texas drops to #10, Florida to #15, and New
York to #28.
– Conversely, New Mexico, Nevada, and Hawaii, which ranked 22nd, 25th and 30th in cumulative PV capacity, are 6th, 1st and
1,600
3rd on a PV watts per capita basis.
Cumulative PV Capacity Per Capita
1,400
1,200
Dave to update
(Wac/person)
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
New…
Texas
Wyoming
Indiana
Delaware
Ohio
Alabama
Oklahoma
Nevada
Hawaii
Arizona
Colorado
Georgia
Arkansas
Vermont
New Jersey
South Carolina
Connecticut
Puerto Rico
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
California
North Carolina
Florida
Oregon
Wisconsin
Virginia
Minnesota
New York
Montana
Mississippi
Michigan
Iowa
Louisiana
Tennessee
Washington
Alaska
Kansas
Kentucky
Rhode Island
New Mexico
Maine
Utah
Massachusetts
US Total
Idaho
DC
Maryland
Illinois
Missouri
South Dakota
Nebraska
been reported. NREL | 34
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, and EIA-861 (February 2024); United States Census Bureau (2024).
• Despite representing only 24% of installed U.S.
U.S. PV Installation Breakdown PV capacity at the end of 2023, 97% of PV
systems—over 4.4 million systems—were
Annual: EIA (GWac) residential applications.
• At the end of 2023, there were 137.5 GWac of cumulative PV – In 2023, the United States installed 893,000
PV systems, of which 880,000 were
installations. residential, 13,000 were C&I, and 399 were
• EIA reports that at the end of 2023, 65% of U.S. installed PV utility-scale.
capacity was from utility-scale PV systems.
Cumulative U.S. PV Installations as of Cumulative U.S. PV Installations as of

December 2023 (137.5 GWac) December 2023 (4.8 million systems)
Utility-scale
C&I
6,197
Residential 14.9
32.9
Residential
4,642,957
Utility-scale C&I
89.8 140,400
NREL | 35
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, EIA-860, and EIA-861 (April 2023).
U.S. Residential PV Penetration
6.0% 5,000,000 • Since 2005 when Congress passed the
Residential PV systems (right axis) investment tax credit, the number of annually
5.4% 4,500,000
U.S. households (left axis) installed residential PV systems has grown by
4.8% 4,000,000 approximately 36% per year, or over 250X.
Single-family detached houses (left axis)
4.2% 3,500,000 • At the end of 2023, SEIA estimates there were
Cum. # of Res. PV Systems

% of households with PV
3.6% 3,000,000 approximately 4.7 million residential PV systems

in the United States.
3.0% 2,500,000
– Still, only 3.3% of households own or lease a
2.4% 2,000,000 PV system (or 5.3% of households living in
single-family detached structures).
1.8% 1,500,000
– However, solar penetration varies by
1.2% 1,000,000
location. Hawaii, California, and Arizona
0.6% 500,000 have residential systems on an estimated
35%, 23%, and 14% of households,
0.0% 0 respectively, living in single-family detached
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
structures.
Sources: Res. PV Installations: 2000-2009, IREC 2010 Solar Market Trends Report; 2010-2022, SEIA/Wood Mackenzie NREL | 36
Solar Market Insight 2023 Year-in-Review; U.S. Households from U.S. Census Bureau.
• LBNL reports that substantial solar and storage capacity have been
U.S. Transmission proposed in most regions of the United States.
– Over 12,000 large-scale projects representing 1.57 TWac of
Interconnection Queues generator capacity (1.48 TW of which is zero-carbon and 1.09
TW is solar) and 1.03 TWac of storage are seeking
interconnection.
• Annual interconnection requests have increased dramatically—in
terms of both number and capacity—since 2013; over 900 GWac was
added in 2023 alone. Over half of solar and storage capacity in the
queue is from hybrid projects.
Proposed Interconnections by Technology
• Only 13% of proposed solar projects (and 10% of solar+battery
projects) entering queues from 2000 to 2018 have reached
commercial operations (compared to 19% for all technologies).
• The average time spent in queues has increased over time. The typical
projects completed in 2022-2023 took 5 years from interconnection
request to commercial operation. This compares to 3 years in 2015
and less than 2 years in 2008.
Interconnection Requests by Year
*Hybrid storage capacity is estimated using storage: generator ratios from projects that provide separate capacity data NREL | 37
Source: LBNL, Queued Up: Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection, 2024.
EIA Reports Fewer Delays • EIA reports that in 2023 developers
delayed 19% of planned solar capacity—
a reduction from the high of 23% in
2022, though still above historical
averages.
• According to EIA data, the percentage of

total solar planned capacity with a
postponed operational date increased
from 2021 to 2022, peaking in December
2022 at 33%.
• The rapid rise in delays between mid-

2021 and late 2022 corresponded with
constrained importation of PV modules
into the United States, related to issues
including policies that targeted China’s
alleged use of forced labor (WRO on
Hoshine, UFLPA), the AD/CVD
circumvention investigation, and COVID-
related supply chain disruptions. The
impact of such issues eased by 2023,
corresponding with increased module
imports and reduced delays.
NREL | 38
Source: EIA “Today In Energy” (May 8, 2024)
FERC Issues Long-term
Transmission Planning Rules
FERC issued final rule for Order #1920, two years in the making, which establishes a new long-term planning process to better anticipate and address
regional grid needs and to encourage cooperation with states.
– Requires transmission providers to plan ahead at least 20 years, update regional transmission needs at least every 5 years, and determine how to pay for
them.
The level of transmission investment has not been adequate to handle large changes to the grid, with transmission providers more focused on short-term
needs.
– Order gives transmission providers opportunity to select cheaper, more efficient, long-term regional transmission facilities.
– Requires transmission providers to consider several alternative transmission technologies (e.g., dynamic line ratings, advanced power flow control
devices, advanced conductors, and transmission switching).
Transmission projects which require multiple-state approval have had difficulties due to varying goals of, and benefits to, states (e.g., different levels of use
of projects, different renewable energy goals).
– Order permits but does not require transmission providers to use a State Agreement process, providing states a role in the process.
– FERC also issued Order #1977, which gives FERC authority to issue permits to construct a national corridor if states deny siting application (so long as
they have made good faith effort to engage with landowners early and developed environmental justice plans). States are encouraged to work together
because if they do not FERC and transmission owners can move ahead without state permission.
Analysts believe that more efforts are needed to properly build out transmission infrastructure, including low-cost access to loans (e.g., loan guarantees,
revolving loan funds). The final rule also does not establish renewable energy zones by transmission planners (as discussed in the NOPR) or mandate grid-
enhancing technologies.
The order will also likely be challenged in court. Sources: Holland & Knight (05/15/24); Morgan Lewis (05/14/24); NYTimes (05/13/24); UtilityDive (05/15/24)
NREL | 39
Community Solar • Cumulative community solar capacity topped
7.2 GWac in 2023 with 9 states adding a total
of 1.04 GWac of new interconnected capacity.
Community Solar Installed Capacity by Year of
Interconnection (MWac) • The majority of new installations in 2023 were in
2,500 Florida (447 MWac) and New York (404 MWac).
2,000 – Florida Power & Light's SolarTogether program is the largest
community solar program in the United States with 26
1,500 current utility-owned projects on-line and 18 planned
+46% projects (1341 MWac of planned community solar).
1,000
– New York's additions dropped by 7% from 2022. Wood
500 Mackenzie projects that market saturation and
interconnection issues will challenge community solar
0 projects’ long-term market viability.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
FL NY MA • Wood Mackenzie projects 1–2 GW of growth through

MN TX IL 2025 and an approximate doubling of cumulative
community solar capacity over the next five years.
AR CO MD
GA Other States + DC
Note: Community solar refers to any solar project or purchasing program, within a geographic area, in which the benefits flow to multiple customers such as individuals,
businesses, nonprofits, and other groups. In most cases, customers benefit from energy generated by solar panels at an off-site array.
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Community Solar Outlook H1 2024 (February 2024). NREL Sharing the Sun Project List, accessed 4/22/24. SolarTogether, Florida Power & Light, accessed NREL | 40
5/7/24.
NREL-Tracked LMI
Community Solar • NREL tracked 253 MWac of LMI community solar
LMI Community Solar Installed Capacity by Year of installations, 116 MWac of which was installed in 2023.
Interconnection (MWac) – 75% the projects were located in New York, New
600 Jersey, and Florida.
500
• There are another 555 MWac of planned LMI
400
community solar projects in the dataset, most of which
300
are located in New York.
200
100 • The IRS announced in that in 2023 and 2024 it intends
0
to allocate a combined ~800 MWdc per year of Low-
Income Communities Bonus Credits to Low-Income
Benefit Projects (which in general meet the definition
of a LMI Community Solar project)
FL NY MA NJ DC IL OR CO MD Other States
– These annual allocations go through at least 2032.
Note: Community solar refers to any solar project or purchasing program, within a geographic area, in which the benefits flow to multiple customers such as individuals,
businesses, nonprofits, and other groups. In most cases, customers benefit from energy generated by solar panels at an off-site array.
Note: Complete LMI community solar projects are energized projects, and pending projects are awarded or under construction. Projects that are wait-listed, under review, or
withdrawn are not considered to be pending. Unless documented from the subscription and procurement reports like Colorado and District of Columbia, the remaining LMI
capacity refers to a conservative calculation based on the community solar LMI carve-out rate by program.
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Community Solar Outlook H1 2024 (February 2024). NREL Sharing the Sun Project List, accessed 4/22/24. Sharing the Sun: Community Solar Deployment NREL | 41
and Subscriptions (as of June 2023), NREL. SolarTogether, Florida Power & Light, accessed 5/7/24.
U.S. Off-Site Corporate
Solar PPAs • U.S. corporate solar contracts were down 14.5% in 2023
y/y, though the contracted capacity was 3.3 times larger
than it was 5 years ago.
– The United States represented approximately 49% of
the global off-site corporate solar market in 2023,
followed by Spain (9%) and India (6%).
– 67% of the 2023 U.S. solar contracts were in the form of
virtual PPAs, with the remainder coming mostly from
green tariffs (12%).
– In addition to the 14.1 GW of U.S. solar PPAs in 2023,
companies signed 3.2 GW of U.S. wind PPAs.
• Through 2023, the leading five U.S. offsite corporate

solar offtakers were Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google,
and Verizon, with a collective 40 GW of PPAs.
– In 2023 alone, Amazon signed 4.0 GW and Meta signed
2.8 GW of off-site U.S. solar PPAs.
– In May 2024, Microsoft signed the largest ever
corporate PPA for more than 10.5 GW of renewable
energy (largely solar) in the United States and Europe.
Sources: BloombergNEF, “Corporate PPA Deal Tracker,” as of April 29, 2024. Microsoft NREL | 42
announces largest-ever corporate procurement of renewable energy, PV Magazine, 5/1/24.
Bifacial Module Surge in • The share of bifacial modules grew rapidly in
California and New York’s large distributed PV
Large Distributed PV Systems systems between 2020 and 2023.
– From 4% of capacity in 2020 to 29% of
capacity in 2023 for systems 100–500 kWdc.
– 6% to 43% for systems 500 kWdc to 1 MWdc.
– 6% to 53% for systems 1–5 MWdc.
– 6% to 79% for systems 5+ MWdc.
Increasing distributed PV system size

• The bifacial module share remained at 5% or less
for systems 2.5–100 kWdc.
• Ground-mount and flat-roof nonresidential PV
installations can provide bifacial energy gain, but
typical sloped residential rooftop installations do
not provide bifacial gain.
• Installers may use bifacial modules to avoid tariff-
related module costs. Bifacial modules were
exempted from Section 201 tariffs starting in
June 2019.
• These distributed generation data do not include
utility-scale PV projects, which are the primary
application for bifacial modules.
Note: Bifacial modules are defined as having the term “bifacial” in the description field in the California Energy Commission’s PV Module List.
NREL | 43
Sources: CA NEM database (3/31/24); Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA (3/31/24); Solar Power World (11/16/21); DOE, Solar Futures Study.
U.S. Energy Storage Installations
by Market Segment (Energy Storage
Association)
The United States installed approximately 26.0 GWh (8.8 GWac) of energy storage California represented over half of all 2023 battery installed
onto the electric grid in 2023, +34% (+30%) y/y, as a result of high levels of capacity, with the top nine states representing approximately
residential deployment and grid-scale deployment. 97% of the market.
– Half of all 2023 grid-scale deployment occurred in Q4. – 7 states installed more than 800 MWh of storage in 2023.
– At the end of 2023, Wood Mackenzie reported 57.7 GWh (20.5 GWac) of U.S. energy
storage.
U.S. Energy Storage Installations by Market Segment

30 10
Energy Storage Installed (GW)

Energy Storage Installed (GWh)
Grid-Scale (GWh) Grid-Scale (GW) 9

25 CCI (GWh) CCI (GW) 8
20 Residential (GWh) Residential (GW) 7
6
15 5
4
10 3
5 2
1
0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: Grid-scale refers to all projects deployed on the utility side of the meter, regardless of size or ownership. CCI refers to
community-scale, commercial and industrial. NREL | 44
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and Energy Storage Association, U.S. Energy Storage Monitor: Q1 2024.
by Market Segment (EIA)
EIA reports that the United States installed approximately 7.2 GWac of energy At the end of 2023, California represented 52% of cumulative
storage onto the electric grid in 2023—up 57% y/y as a result of high levels of installed battery storage capacity, followed by Texas (22%).
deployment in all sectors. – The top ten markets represented 95% of installed energy storage
– EIA reported a 23% increase in utility-scale, 29% increase for C&I, and 30% increase for capacity.
residential storage installations in 2023, y/y.

8 7.2
7
6 Residential
C&I 4.6
5
3.8
4 Utility-scale
3
2
0.8
1 0.3 0.4
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: EIA reports no storage from Puerto Rico. NREL | 45

Sources: EIA Form 860M.
California represented over half of all 2023 battery installed
U.S. Energy Storage Installations by capacity, with the top nine states representing approximately
Market Segment 97% of the market.

– 7 states installed more than 800 MWh of storage in 2023.
– California led in all market sectors in 2023, though Texas and
• The United States installed approximately 12.4 GWh (4.2 GWac) of energy storage Arizona installed large levels of grid-scale storage, New York and
onto the electric grid in Q4 2023—its largest quarter on record by more than 6 Massachusetts installed large levels of CCI, and Puerto Rico far
GWh (2 GWac)—as a result of record growth in the grid-scale and residential outpaced every state, except California, in residential installs.
sectors. – Puerto Rico’s Solar Access Program opened in February. It will
provide up to 30,000 low-income households with free solar and
– Long-duration storage is beginning to take off; Form Energy has a contract in
California for a 5 MW/500 MWh system and in Washington and Minnesota for 10 storage.
MW/1,000 MWh iron-air battery pilot systems. Dominion is also partnering with – Hawaii began its successor program to its Battery Bonus program;
Enervenue for a 10-hour nickel-hydrogen chemistry non-lithium-ion storage system. the incentives are significantly below previous levels.
14 4.5
Energy Storage Installed (GWh)

Grid-Scale (GWh) Grid-Scale (GW) 4.0
12
CCI (GWh) CCI (GW) 3.5
10
Residential (GWh) Residential (GW) 3.0
8 2.5
6 2.0
1.5
4
1.0
2 0.5
0 0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Note: “Grid-scale” refers to all projects deployed on the utility side of the meter, regardless of size or ownership; “CCI” refers to community-scale, commercial, and industrial. NREL | 46
Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and Energy Storage Association, U.S. Energy Storage Monitor: Q1 2024.
by Market Segment (EIA)
• EIA reports that the United States installed approximately • California represented 45% of battery
2.5 GWac of energy storage onto the electric grid in Q4 of installations in 2023, followed by Texas (23%)
2023—up 107% y/y, but down 11% q/q. and Arizona (12%).
• 8 states installed more than 100 MW of storage
in 2023.
3,000
Energy Storage Installed (MW)
Residential
2,500 C&I
2,000 Utility-scale
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NREL | 47
Sources: EIA Form 860M, EIA Form 861M.
• Despite representing only 9% of installed U.S.
U.S. BESS Installation Breakdown battery energy storage capacity at the end of
2023, 98% of battery systems—over 215,000
Annual: EIA (GWac) systems—were residential applications.
• At the end of 2023, EIA reports that there were 17.9 GWac (~46 – Virtually all distributed BESS and most
GWh) of cumulative U.S. battery energy storage installations. utility-scale BESS are co-located with PV.
• EIA reports that at the end of 2023, 88% of U.S. installed battery – In 2023, EIA reports that the U.S. installed
energy storage capacity was from utility-scale PV systems. 67,700 battery energy storage systems, of
which 66,700 were residential, 650 were
C&I, and 122 were utility-scale.
Cumulative U.S. BESS Installations as of
December 2023 (17.9 GWac / ~44 GWh) Cumulative U.S. BESS Installations as of
December 2023 (219,000 systems)
C&I
539 MW (2,021 MWh)
Utility-scale
573
Utility-scale
Residential 15,830 MW ~(42,000 MWh) Residential
215,005
1,488 MW (1,671 MWh)
C&I
3,528
NREL | 48
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, EIA-860, and EIA-861 (April 2024).
Community Opposition: PV • Opposition to solar and wind has become
more prevalent and expensive to deal with than it
was 5 years ago. This trend is expected to continue.
Developer Perspectives • On average, community opposition is expected to
delay solar projects by 11 months.
• LBNL conducted a survey of 123 utility-scale wind and solar • Those surveyed identified the primary causes
project developers. of community opposition for solar to be visual
• Local ordinances or zoning, grid interconnection, and concerns, loss of agricultural land,
community opposition are three leading causes of project community character, and residential property
cancellations for both wind and solar. Supply chain issues also values.
are a key reason for solar project delays. • 61% of solar developers agreed that if they expect
• 75% of those surveyed believe that increased community substantial opposition in a given community, they
engagement results in fewer project cancellations. would be unlikely to develop there. Developers also
agreed that predicting opposition is difficult.
NREL | 49
Source: Wind and Solar Developer Survey, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Jan 2024.
Community Opposition: • 2023 was the first time that the number of
counties restricting utility-scale solar projects
Quantitative Policy Trends (61) almost equaled the number of counties
adding their first solar farm (62).
• Impediments to clean energy deployment
include:
• Outright bans
• Moratoriums (counties buying time to write
new zoning laws)
• Height and setback regulations (especially
problematic for wind)
• Noise limits
• Limits on the amount of agricultural land
that can be used for solar
• Local governments refusing to sign
agreements with wind/solar developers
• Large, organized opposition groups (such as
Citizens for Responsible Solar and Committee
for a Constructive Tomorrow) have initiated
local campaigns against solar and have spread
misleading claims to bolster opposition.
Sources: Inside how wind and solar energy are being restricted across the US, USA Today, 2/4/24. How we
tallied local bans, limits on renewable energy nationwide, USA Today, 2/4/24. How misinformation about
solar power hinders the fight against climate change, NPR, 2/18/23. Inside the right-wing conspiracy to thwart NREL | 50
the clean energy transition, Canary Media, 3/15/24.
Community Opposition: • Despite vocal opposition groups and restrictive
Counter-Opposition local policies, polls show that most people,
regardless of political affiliation, are
comfortable living near a wind or solar farm.
• 75% of those polled by the Washington
Post/UMD said they were comfortable
living near a field of solar panels.
• Some state governments have laws that can
override county-level clean energy bans (dark
yellow on the map). Two states enacted
override laws in 2023 (red on the map):
• Illinois enacted a new law blocking any
outright ban of wind or solar projects.
The law also sets state siting parameters
and prohibits counties from adopting
more restrictive limits.
• Michigan passed a clean energy package
that gives the state public service
commission final say over approval for
large-scale wind and solar projects.
Sources: July 13-23, 2023, Washington Post-University of Maryland Climate Poll, The Washington Post, 8/7/23. Some Midwest states look to counter local opposition to wind and solar
farm projects, KSUT Public Radio, 3/14/24. "Opposition to Renewable Energy Facilities in the United States", Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, June 2024. NREL | 51
Agenda
• The median system price of large-scale utility-owned PV
systems in 2023 was $1.27/Wac—relatively flat since 2018.
1 Global Solar Deployment • The median price for residential PV systems reported by
EnergySage increased 6.3% y/y to $2.8/Wdc—in-line with mid-
2 U.S. PV Deployment 2020 price levels.
• From H1 2023 to H1 2024, the median reported distributed

3 PV System Pricing PV system price across Arizona, California, Massachusetts,
and New York:
– Decreased 2% to $4.17/Wdc for systems 2.5 to 10 kW
5 Component Pricing – Decreased 8% to $3.46/Wdc for systems 10 to 100 kW
– Increased 4% to $2.61/Wdc for systems 100 to 500 kW
6 Market and Policy
– Decreased 2% to $2.23/Wdc for systems 500 kW to 1 MW
7 U.S. PV Imports – Increased 4% to $1.65/Wdc for systems 1 to 5 MW

– Decreased 8% to $1.14/Wdc for systems 5 MW+.
NREL | 52
Utility-Owned PV Pricing (>5 MW)
$10
Median (AC)
$9
Capacity-weighted Average (AC)
$8 Individual Projects (AC)
The median system price of large-scale, utility-owned
Median (DC) PV systems in 2023 was $1.27/Wac—relatively flat
Installed Cost ($/Wac)
$7
$6
Capacity-weighted Average (DC)
since 2018.
Individual Projects (DC)
$5 – The lowest and highest reported prices in 2023 were
$4 $1.05/Wac and $2.35/Wac, respectively.
$3 – Based on 2022 AC and DC system sizing for this
$2 dataset, the $1.27/Wac would translate into $0.99/Wdc.
$1
$0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Project Completion Year
Note: Values represent a select dataset of utility-scale PV systems owned by 25 regulated utilities for 233 projects totaling 11.8 GWac installed
from 2010 to 2023.
Sources: FERC Form 1 filings from the following utilities: Alabama Power, Allete, Arizona Public Service, Avangrid, Dominion, DTE, Duke Energy,
El Paso Electric, Entergy, Florida Power and Light, Georgia Power, Indiana Michigan Power, Kentucky Utilities, MidAmerican, Nevada Power,
Pacific Gas and Electric, Public Service of New Mexico, Southern California Edison, Tampa Electric, Tucson Electric, United Illuminating, Union NREL | 53
Electric, UNS Electric, Virginia Electric, and Wisconsin Public Service.
Utility-Owned PV Pricing (>5 MW)
$5.0 Southwest
Southeast
$4.5
Midwest • Project prices in the Southeast were, on
Mid-Atlantic
$4.0
10 MW
average, lower than the rest of the country,
Sizing
$3.5
100 MW with a capacity-weighted average of $1.2/Wac
Installed Cost ($/Wac)
$3.0 in 2023, compared to $1.8/Wac in the Midwest

$2.5 and Mid-Atlantic and $1.6/Wac in the
Southwest.
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Sep-17 Jun-20 Mar-23
Project Completion Year
Note: Values represent a select data set of utility-scale PV systems owned by 25 regulated utilities for 233 projects totaling 11.8 GWac installed
from 2010 to 2023.
Sources: FERC Form 1 filings from the from the following utilities: Alabama Power, Allete, Arizona Public Service, Avangrid, Dominion, DTE, Duke
Energy, El Paso Electric, Entergy, Florida Power and Light, Georgia Power, Indiana Michigan Power, Kentucky Utilities, MidAmerican, Nevada
Power, Pacific Gas and Electric, Public Service of New Mexico, Southern California Edison, Tampa Electric, Tucson Electric, United Illuminating, NREL | 54
Union Electric, UNS Electric, Virginia Electric, and Wisconsin Public Service.
• There is a wide variety of reported pricing for
utility-owned battery storage systems, even
Utility-Owned BESS Pricing (>5 MW) accounting for differences in the hours of storage.
• In general, the price of 3–4 hour battery systems
fell from $500–600/kWh in 2018–2019 to $400–
$500/kWh in 2022–2023.
Installed Cost ($/kWac) Installed Cost ($/kWh)

$3,000 $900
1-2 hrs 10 MW 10 MW
$800 1-2 hrs
100 MW 100 MW
$2,500 2-3 hrs 2-3 hrs
$700
3-4 hrs 3-4 hrs
$2,000 $600
$500
$1,500
$400
$1,000 $300
$200
$500
$100
$0 $0
May-16 Sep-17 Feb-19 Jun-20 Oct-21 Mar-23 Jul-24 May-16 Sep-17 Feb-19 Jun-20 Oct-21 Mar-23 Jul-24
Project Completion Year Project Completion Year
Note: Values represent a select dataset of utility-scale PV systems owned by 8 regulated utilities for 21 projects totaling 1.2 GWac installed from 2010 to 2023.
Sources: FERC Form 1 filings from the from the following utilities: Arizona Public Service, Duke Energy-Indiana, Florida Power and Light, Nevada Power, Pacific Gas NREL | 55
& Electric, Tampa Electric, Virginia Electric, and Wisconsin Public Service.
U.S. Solar PPA Pricing
(LevelTen)
$80 • LevelTen reports that the U.S. utility-scale PV PPA
prices fell approximately 1% q/q, though is still up
$70 5% y/y.
National average across • LevelTen reports that the fall in natural gas prices
$60 markets along with the oversupply of PV panels put
25th Percentile PPA Offer Price ($/MWh)
downward pressure on PPA prices, allowing

$50
developers to reduce pricing.
– However, they report that lower pricing may
$40 be short-term due to continued high inflation
rates, a delay in interest rate cuts, and
$30
potentially more stringent regulations on U.S.
imports.
$20 • LevelTen reported that California ISO was the
lowest priced market in Q1 2024, due to several
new projects under 50 MW. PJM continued to be
$10
one of the more expensive markets, due to
higher-priced RECs, interconnection challenges,
$0 and ongoing reform in the capacity market.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24
Source: LevelTen, PPA Price Index. NREL | 56
From H1 2023 to H1 2024 (partial), the median
Distributed PV System Pricing reported standalone (no energy storage)
from Select States distributed PV system price—in 2023 (inflation-
adjusted) dollars—across Arizona, California,
Massachusetts, and New York:
Click here to interactively view • Decreased 2% to $4.17/Wdc for systems 2.5 to
10 kW
• Decreased 8% to $3.46/Wdc for systems 10 to
100 kW
• Increased 4% to $2.61/Wdc for systems 100 to
500 kW
• Decreased 2% to $2.23/Wdc for systems 500
kW to 1 MW
• Increased 4% to $1.65/Wdc for systems 1 to 5
MW
• Decreased 8% to $1.14/Wdc for systems 5
MW+.
Adjusting for inflation reveals the generally
decreasing distributed PV system price trends in
2024 MW data YTD: Arizona (45.5), California (442), Massachusetts (10.3), New York (137).
Note: System prices above $10/W and below $0.75/W were removed from the dataset. The volatility in median real dollars over the past several years of
system price among the largest systems is due to the relatively small number of systems deployed each year.
Sources: Arizona Goes Solar (2/1/24); California Distributed Generation (3/31/24); Massachusetts Lists of
economic volatility.
NREL | 57
Qualified Generation Units (2/22/2024); Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA (4/1/24).
Distributed PV System Pricing Click here to interactively view
from Select States, 2023 these data on Tableau Public.
In addition to price differences based on system

size, there is variation in the price of standalone
(no energy storage) distributed PV systems
between states and within individual markets.
Dollar-per-watt prices generally decrease as

system size increases.
For systems of 2.5–10 kW, median price changes

varied between 2022 and 2023:
• -5% in Arizona, -5% in California, -1% in

Lines represent medians. Bars
Massachusetts, -1% in New York.
represent 80th and 20th percentiles.
2023 MW data : Arizona (297), California (2,480), Massachusetts (158), New York (748).
Note: System prices above $10/W and below $0.75/W were removed from the dataset.
Sources: Arizona Goes Solar (2/1/24); California Distributed Generation (3/31/24); Massachusetts Lists NREL | 58
of Qualified Generation Units (2/22/2024); Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA (4/1/24).
Price over time
Residential System Price Reported $5
by EnergySage
Median Gross Costs ($/W)

3.80
$4 3.65
3.35
3.74 3.10 3.00 2.89 2.75
$3 3.50 2.68 2.85 2.80
3.18 3.06
2.93 2.85 2.90
• The median price for residential PV systems reported by $2 2.67 2.77
EnergySage fell 1.8% y/y—in-line with mid-2020 price
$1
levels.
– Some of the price decrease may be explained by having $0
the largest average system size on record—11.3 kWdc — H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2
allowing project to benefit from economies of scale. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
• Residential system price varied by state. In H2 2023, the Price by State, H2 2023 ($/Wdc)
median price of a residential system in Indiana was 51%
higher than the median price of a residential system in $4.0
$3.55
Florida. $3.5 $3.10
$3.25
$2.90
– Part of the price disparity between states may be due $3.0 $2.70 $2.71 $2.75 $2.80
$2.55
$2.35 $2.35
to differences in average system size (14.3 kW in Florida $2.5
versus 12 kW in Indiana), though other factors also play $2.0
a role. $1.5
• EnergySage reported that the most popular loan (with a 25- $1.0
year term and a 3.99% interest rate) cost 47% higher than $0.5
the cash value of the PV system. $0.0
FL TX NV CA NC OH US GA CO NY IN
Note: Price based on winning quoted price. NREL | 59
Source: EnergySage, Solar Market place Intel Report H1 2023 – H2 2023.
Sunrun and SunPower Cost and
• After falling in 2019, the prices of residential
Value, 2018–2023 systems installed by national integrators
Sunrun and SunPower—adjusted for
Mostly systems leases—bars represent Mostly system sales—bars inflation—rose or stayed relatively flat.
$7.0 subscriber value including the net present represent system costs including
value of contracted cash flows, tax credits,
and other benefits, including an assumed
a gross margin
• Recent increases in installation costs are due
$6.0 contract extension in part to increasing battery attachment.
Installed Cost (2023 USD/Wdc)
$5.0
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.0
• Increases in sales costs also contributed to
$0.0 higher prices.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
• General and administrative costs exhibited a
Sunrun SunPower generally decreasing trend across companies.
Installation Sales General & administrative Net value
Sources: Corporate filings. NREL | 60

Large Residential Installer Large residential installer Sunrun reported a system
Cost and Value, Q1 2024 value change of +15% y/y and +4% q/q in Q1 2024.
Factors reported as supporting higher system value
$8.0 Mostly systems leases—bars represent subscriber value including the net 60% and/or costs (for Sunrun and Sunnova*):
present value of contracted cash flows, tax credits, and other benefits,
including an assumed contract extension • Increasing electricity demand and retail rates
$7.0
50% • High interest rates
$6.0 1.57 • Increasing battery attachment rates (batteries add
1.73
1.4 40% cost but can yield higher margins)
Battery Attachment Rate

$5.0 1.6 1.6 $0.24
Installed Cost ($/Wdc)
$0.21 • Implementation of virtual power plant programs

$0.15
$0.17 $1.33
$4.0 $0.15
$1.06 30% Factors reported as supporting lower PV system costs
$1.29 $1.10 $1.15 and/or higher margins:
$3.0 • Investment Tax Credit adders
20%
$2.0
• Declining equipment prices
$3.42 $3.43 $3.63
$2.84 $3.01 10% • Increased operating efficiency
$1.0
• Increased use of SolarAPP+ to reduce time and cost
associated with permitting and interconnection
$0.0 0%
Q1 '23 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 Q1 '24
Sunrun * SunPower results for Q1 2024 were not available as of May 2024.
Installation Sales G&A Net Value or Gross Margin Battery Attachment Rate
NREL | 61
Sources: Corporate filings.
Residential PV + Storage Click here to interactively view
Pricing in California these data on Tableau Public.
• In 2023, residential PV-plus-storage

systems in California had a median system
price of $2,988/kWh, or $5,990/kWac
($5,501/kWdc)—comparable to 2022 prices
when adjusted for inflation.
– Most of these systems offer 2–3 hours
of storage.
– Units represent total system price
divided by the capacity of the battery
(kWh) or the capacity of the PV system
(kW).
Lines represent medians. Bars

represent 80th and 20th percentiles.
The data are filtered to PV system sizes of 10 kWdc or smaller.

NREL | 62
Source: California Distributed Generation (3/31/24).
Price over time
Residential Storage Price Reported $1,400
by EnergySage
Median Gross Costs ($/kWh)

$1,350
$1,300
$1,250
$1,200
• The median price for residential energy storage reported by $1,150
EnergySage fell 5.5% y/y. $1,100
$1,050
– This is the first reported decrease in the median price of energy
$1,000
storage since EnergySage started reporting in 2020. H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2
– EnergySage attributed the drop in price to a 19% decrease in 2020 2021 2022 2023
quoted storage prices in California, where there has been a 45%
storage attachment rate since NEM 3.0 went into effect. Price by state, H2 2023
– Nationally, 25% of systems sold on the EnergySage platform in H2 $1,600
2023 included a battery, compared to 10% in H1 2023.
Median Gross Costs ($/kWh)

$1,400
$1,200
• Residential storage system price varied by state. In H2 2023, the $1,000
median price of a residential storage system in Illinois and
$800
Massachusetts were 36% higher than the median price of a residential
$600
storage system in California and Texas.
$400
– In the EnergySage dataset, the median cost of a battery in the top $200
ten states ranged from $11,000 to $17,000. $0
CA TX AZ FL NC US NY GA PA IL MA
Note: Price based on winning quoted price. NREL | 63
Source: EnergySage, Solar Market place Intel Report H1 2023 – H2 2023.
Agenda
• In 2023, global PV shipments were approximately 564
GW—an increase of 100% from 2022.
• In 2023, 98% of PV shipments were mono c-Si
1 Global Solar Deployment technology, compared to 35% in 2015.
2 U.S. PV Deployment – N-type mono c-Si grew to 63%—up from 51% in 2022
(and 5% in 2019).
3 PV System Pricing • In 2023, the average efficiency of modules installed in
the United States was approximately 20.7% for c-Si and
4 Global Manufacturing 18.6% for CdTe.
• In 2023, the United States produced about 7.2 GW of PV
5 Component Pricing modules.
• Since IRA’s passage, over 70 GW of manufacturing
6 Market and Policy capacity has been added across the solar supply chain
(from facilities announced pre- and post-IRA), including
7 U.S. PV Imports more than 25 GW of new module capacity.
NREL | 64
Global Annual PV Shipments • SPV Market Research reported that 2023 global
by Region* PV shipments were approximately 564 GW—an
increase of 100% from 2022.
16% 600
Japan – 88% of the increase came from China, with
EU the remainder mostly coming from
14% U.S.
Rest of Asia
500 Southeast Asia, but also India and the United
12% Vietnam States.
PV Module Shipments (GW)

Malaysia
400 • From 2004 to 2023:
Percent of Shipments
10% Taiwan
China – The U.S.-manufactured percentage of global
8%
U.S. Share
300
PV shipments declined from about 13% to
0.9%.
6% – The Chinese-manufactured share of global
200
PV shipments grew from 1% to 80%.
4%
– Together the Malaysian-, Vietnamese-, and
100 South Thai-manufactured percentage of
2%
global PV shipments went from 0% to 17%.
0% 0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
* Note: excludes inventory sales and outsourcing NREL | 65

Source: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2023/2024." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply12. April 2024.
• In 2023, 98% of PV shipments were mono c-
Global Annual PV Shipments Si technology, compared to 35% in 2015.
by Technology* – N-type mono c-Si grew to 63%—up from
52% in 2022 (and 5% in 2019).
Global Annual PV Shipments by Technology • TopCon was the leading cell type in 2023,
100%
followed by Mono P PERC, Mono N PERC,
and HJT.
% of global PV shipments by technology
80%
60% Back PERC (N CdTe Other**

Contact Mono) 2% 0%
2% 7%
HJT (N
40% Mono)
3% PERC (P
Mono)
20% 34%
0%
TOPCon (N
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Mono)
Multi c-Si Mono c-Si (n-type) Mono c-Si (p-type) CdTe CIGS/CIS 52%
*Notes: excludes inventory sales and outsourcing ** includes a-Si, CIS/CIGS, TOPCon (P Mono), and Multi PERC.
Source: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues NREL | 66
2022/2023." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply12. April 2024.
Global Leading PV Manufacturers
by Shipments
Ranking 2017 GWdc 2022 GWdc 2023 GWdc • From 2017 to 2023, shipments from the top 10 PV
1 JA Solar 6.5 Tongwei 38.1 Tongwei 65.5 manufacturers grew from 46 GW to 414 GW, with
2 Canadian Solar 5.4 JA Solar 36.2 Jinko Solar 60.2
some companies shipping more than 60 GW
3 Zhongli Talesun 5.0 Aiko 30.7 LONGi 58.4
4 Jinko Solar 4.9 LONGi 29.2 Trina Solar 55.9 annually.
5 Trina Solar 4.8 Jinko Solar 23.9 JA Solar 51.2 • Approximately half of 2023 shipments came from
6 LONGi 4.5 Canadian Solar 16.8 Aiko Solar 36.8 the top five companies.
7 Hanwha Q Cells 4.2 Trina Solar 14.5 Canadian Solar 30.7
8 Tongwei 3.8 SolarSpace 11.6 Astroenergy 19.5
9 Motech 3.2 Zhongli Talesun 9.8 Risen 18.5
10 Aiko 3.1 First Solar 9.1 Runergy 17.0
Total
45.5 220.0 413.7
Above
Total
93.9 283.1 564.0
Shipped
*Notes: excludes inventory sales and outsourcing

NREL | 67
Source: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2022/2023." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply12. April 2024.
PV Module Efficiency • From 2010 to 2023, the weighted average
Improvements efficiency of installed modules increased:
– From 14.8% to 20.7% for crystalline-silicon
technologies (in California and New York).
– From 11.0% to 18.6% for cadmium telluride
(CdTe) (in the United States).
• Efficiency increases occurred through

incremental improvements in given
technologies as well as changes in technology
market share.
– For example, in the mid-2010s, the share of
these data on Tableau Public. higher-efficiency monocrystalline-silicon
modules overtook the share of lower-
efficiency multicrystalline-silicon modules,
contributing to the continual rise of
average crystalline-silicon module
efficiency.
Sources: CdTe: First Solar Investor Relations, average module efficiency produced. c-Si: California Distributed NREL | 68
Generation (3/31/24); Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA (3/31/24).
Silicon Module Market Share and • Projections from the International Technology
Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) show n-type and
Efficiency Projections tandem module technologies replacing p-type
passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC)
technology globally over the next decade.
– TOPCon grows most rapidly, peaking at 62% of
100% Tandem 30% market share in 2026.
90% IBC – Interdigitated back contact (IBC) and silicon
heterojunction (SHJ) combined reach a 20% share
80% 28%
SHJ in 2026, surpassing PERC.
70% – Silicon-based tandem cells enter the market in
Global Market Share
Module Efficiency
60% 26% 2028 and reach a 10% share in 2034.
TOPCon
– The projected technology transition is much faster
50%
in the 2024 ITRPV than in the 2023 ITRPV, e.g.,
40% 24% PERC still has 50% market share in 2026 in the older
30% projection vs. 18% in the newer.
20% 22% • Module efficiencies are projected to rise for all
10%
technologies.
PERC – Tandem efficiency grows fastest, gaining 3
0% 20%
percentage points between 2028 and 2034 and
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
reaching 29.9%.
PERC (p-type) share TOPCon (n-type) share
SHJ (n-type) share IBC (p- and n-type) share – TOPCon, SHJ, and IBC all gain ~2 percentage points
Tandem (Si-based) share PERC (p-type) module eff. between 2023 and 2034, reaching 23.8%, 24.4%,
TOPCon (n-type) module eff. SHJ (n-type) module eff.
IBC (n-type) module eff. Tandem module eff. and 24.7%, respectively.
NREL | 69
Source: International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV), 15th Edition, Key Findings and Selected Report Presentation, March 2024.
Increased PV Module • The expected lifetimes of PV modules and
and System Lifetimes systems increased dramatically over the past
several decades.
• Typical module performance warranties
increased from 1 year in 1977 to 25–30 years
in 2019.
– Module performance warranties
guarantee a percentage of original power
remaining (typically 80%–90%) after a
specified number of years.
• Average lifetimes for utility-scale PV systems
expected by U.S. solar industry professionals
increased from 21.5 years in 2007 to 32.5
years in 2019.
– Systems are now generally expected to
outlast module performance warranties
by at least several years.
Typical module performance warranties are derived from product specifications as analyzed by two separate research groups (Jordan et al. 2022, Peters et al. 2021); the literature averages
represent the averages of values from those two sources for each given year, while the higher values between the two sources are the maximums and the lower values the minimums.
Expected utility-scale project lifetimes are derived from a survey of solar industry professionals and documents, resulting in 19 data points (LBNL 2020).
Sources: Jordan et al., “Photovoltaics module reliability for the terawatt age,” Progress in Energy, 2022; Peters et al., “The value of stability in photovoltaics,” Joule, 2021; LBNL, NREL | 70
Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals, 2020.
Silicon Module Warranty and
Degradation Projections
31 2.5% • Projections from the ITRPV show improvements

Performance warranty in expected crystalline-silicon module reliability
30
over the next decade.
29
2.0% – Performance warranties rise from 25 years in
2023 to 30 years in 2026.
28 – Initial degradation after the first year of
Warranty (years)
1.5% module operation falls from 2.0% in 2023 to
Degradation
27
1.0% in 2026.
26
– Annual degradation during the module
First-year degradation
1.0% warranty period declines slightly from 0.45%
25 in 2023 to 0.38% in 2034.
24
Annual degradation during performance warranty 0.5%
23
22 0.0%
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
NREL | 71
Source: International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV), 15th Edition, Key Findings and Selected Report Presentation, March 2024.
• In 2023, gross margins contracted for
Gross Margin polysilicon and wafer producers and kept
Across Supply Chain fairly even for other parts of the PV supply
chain, despite falling prices.
• Many companies have vertically integrated
to hedge against major price changes.
90%
Median Gross Margin of Surveyed Companies
70%
50%
30%
10%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
-10%
Polysilicon Wafer Cells/Modules Inverters Integrators Yieldco
Sources: Company figures from public filings and finance.yahoo.com. Error bars represent high and low values of surveyed companies. Companies surveyed are Polysilicon: GCL Poly, REC Silicon,
Wacker Chemie, Ferroglobe, Xinte, Daqo; Wafers: ReneSola, Wafer Works Corp, SAS, Danen Technology Group, Green Energy Technology Inc; Zhonghuan, Hoyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd.;
Cells/Modules: First Solar, JA Solar, LONGi, Tongwei, Trina Solar, Canadian Solar, Risen, Aiko, Jinko Solar, DMEGC; Inverters: SolarEdge, Enphase, SMA Solar, Advanced Energy Industries; Integrators:
Real Goods Solar, SolarCity, Vivint Solar, Sunrun, SunPower, Sunworks, Emeren, Isun, SPI, Enlight Renewable Energy, Sunnova; IPP/Yieldco: Brookfield Renewable Partners, Algonquin Power & Utilities
Corp, Clearwater Energy, Nextera Energy Partners, Northland Power, Pattern Energy, Terraform Power, TransAlta Renewables. NREL | 72
• In 2023, solar companies, on average, maintained
Operating Margin operational profitability, with the exception of
integrators.
Across Supply Chain
• However, financing costs are in addition to
operational activities and so companies may need
higher margins to attract new investors into the
space.
40%
Median Operating Margin of Surveyed Companies
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
-10%
Polysilicon Wafer Cells/Modules Inverters Integrators Yieldco
-20%
-30%
-40%
Sources: Company figures from public filings and finance.yahoo.com. Error bars represent high and low values of surveyed companies. Companies surveyed are Polysilicon: GCL Poly, REC Silicon,
Wacker Chemie, Ferroglobe, Xinte, Daqo; Wafers: ReneSola, Wafer Works Corp, SAS, Danen Technology Group, Green Energy Technology Inc, Zhonghuan, Hoyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd.;
Cells/Modules: First Solar, JA Solar, LONGi, Tongwei, Trina Solar, Canadian Solar, Risen, Aiko, Jinko Solar, DMEGC; Inverters: SolarEdge, Enphase, SMA Solar, Advanced Energy Industries; Integrators:
Real Goods Solar, SolarCity, Vivint Solar, Sunrun, SunPower, Sunworks, Emeren, Isun, SPI, Enlight Renewable Energy, Sunnova; IPP/Yieldco: Brookfield Renewable Partners, Algonquin Power & Utilities
Corp, Clearwater Energy, Nextera Energy Partners, Northland Power, Pattern Energy, Terraform Power, TransAlta Renewables. NREL | 73
PV Manufacturers’ Margins
40% • PV manufacturers, on average, experienced
gross margin
30% their third straight quarter of margin declines
operating margin
in Q1 2024, as falling prices and softer than
20% expected demand cut into profits.
10% • Despite the declines, most large manufacturers
Margins
have remained profitable through Q1 2024.

0%
• First Solar’s gross margin remained above 40%,
-10% and its operating margin remained above 30%
-20% for the third straight quarter.
-30%
-40%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24
Lines represent the median, with error bars representing 80th and 20th percentiles for the following companies in Q4 2023: Canadian Solar, First Solar, JA Solar, Jinko Solar,
LONGi, Maxeon, Motech Industries, REC Silicon, Renesola, Risen, Shanghai Aiko, Shanghai Aerospace, Tongwei, Trina Solar, and United Renewable Energy.
Note: Gross margin = revenue minus cost of goods sold (i.e., the money a company retains after incurring the direct costs associated with producing the goods or services it
sells); operating margin = gross margin minus overhead and operating expenses (i.e., the money a company retains before taxes and financing expenses).
NREL | 74
Sources: Company figures based on public filings and finance.yahoo.com.
U.S. PV Manufacturing
5.0 60 The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides incentives to

4.5
produce domestic polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules.
50
PVTech reports that at the end of 2023 PV modules and
Annual Production (thousands MT)

4.0 polysilicon were the only products in production.
Annual Production (GW)
3.5
40 • The U.S. produced approximately 7.2 GW of PV modules
3.0
(4.4 GW CdTe, 2.7 GW c-Si) in 2023, up 44% y/y. Most of
2.5 30 that increase came from CdTe production.
2.0 – PV production is up 9X since 2018. In addition to IRA,
20 manufacturers have attributed the increase in
1.5
production to the reduction in the corporate tax rate in
1.0 2017, the imposition of the Section 201 tariffs in 2018,
10
0.5 the AD/CVD anti-circumvention case in 2021, as well as
other supply chain disruptions to imported PV modules.
0.0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
• Polysilicon for PV increased 5% in 2023 compared to a 2%
Wafers c-Si Cells c-Si Modules increase for semiconductor use.
Thin-film Modules Polysilicon (PV) Polysilicon (semi)
NREL | 75
Source: PVTech Research. PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly Report - Release 32, February 2024.
U.S. Solar & Storage • U.S. solar & storage investments hit records in 2023:
Investments Through 2023

– Solar manufacturing: $5.1 billion (+470% from 2022)
– Battery (vehicle and stationary) manufacturing: $33.9
billion (+240%)
– Large-scale solar deployment: $35.4 billion (+45%)
U.S. Solar and Storage Investments
– Large-scale storage deployment: $17.0 billion (+71%)
35 Infrastructure Inflation – Distributed electricity and storage deployment: $21.6
Investment Reduction billion (+18%)
30 and Jobs Act Act DERs
Investment (billion 2022 USD)
25 • Solar and storage investments announced in 2023

were also large, although some were below levels
20 announced in 2022:
Storage
15 – Solar manufacturing: $12.5 billion (+210% from 2022)
– Battery (vehicle and stationary) manufacturing: $39.8
10 billion (-42%)
– Large-scale solar deployment: $44.8 billion (-4%)
5 Solar
– Large-scale storage deployment: $34.6 billion (+50%)
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 • According to the analyst report, investments in large-
scale solar, storage, and wind* deployment must
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
accelerate to reduce emissions as projected under
Solar Manufacturing Solar Large-Scale Deployment the Inflation Reduction Act.
Battery Manufacturing Storage Large-Scale Deployment
*Wind deployment investments declined each year from 2021 to 2023.
Distributed Electricity and Storage Deployment
Sources: Rhodium Group & MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Clean Investment Monitor: Q4 2023 Update, 2/24; Clean Investment in 2023: NREL | 76
Assessing Progress in Electricity and Transport, 2/24.
Several large facilities have become operational in the last year:
Domestic Manufacturing • Qcells: Module expansions in Georgia are online, bringing
Growth total nameplate capacity to 8.4 GW.
• First Solar: Module expansion in Ohio is online, bringing total
Since IRA’s passage, over 70 GW of manufacturing capacity has been nameplate capacity to 6.3 GW.
added across the solar supply chain (from facilities announced pre-
• Canadian Solar: A 5 GW module facility in Texas has begun
and post-IRA), including more than 25 GW of new module capacity.*
shipping modules to customers.
• Illuminate USA (LONGi/Invenergy): A 5 GW module facility in
Ohio has produced panels for testing.
• REC Silicon: Re-start of 6 GW of polysilicon production in
Washington was successful.
• Nextracker, Array Technologies, and GameChange Solar have
all significantly expanded domestic production of
trackers/tracker components.
Click here to interactively view a

map of active solar manufacturers.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau USA Trade Online and internal DOE tracking of public announcements.
*Not all announcements include facility locations, job, operating capacity, or investment numbers.
Despite the headwinds noted by these companies (including
Domestic Manufacturing surging construction costs, high energy prices, and collapsing
Announcements solar component costs), recent announcements continue to

span the different supply chain steps, including:
Along with openings, there has also been recent news of cancellations • PV modules: Boviet Solar (2 GW), Energate (0.5 GW),
including CubicPV scrapping their wafer plans, REC Silicon stopping Imperial Star Solar (1.5 GW), Phono Solar (1 GW), Solar
production of polysilicon in MT, and Enphase closing its facility in WI. Depot, SolarLink (2 GW), and Toenergy (0.5 GW).
• PV cells: Boway Alloy (2 GW TOPCon)
• Inverters: Enteligent
• Wafers: NexWafe (6 GW)
• Solar Glass: Solarcycle (5.5 GW)
• Trackers: GameChange (11 GW), BCI Steel (4 GW)
• Other components: Corning
Since IRA’s passage (taking into account the cancellations),
over 300 GW of manufacturing capacity has been announced
across the solar supply chain, representing more than 29,000
potential jobs and more than $15 billion in announced
investments across 97 new facilities or expansions.*
Click here to interactively view a map

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau USA Trade Online and internal DOE tracking of public announcements. of manufacturing announcements.
*Not all announcements include facility locations, job, operating capacity, or investment numbers.
Agenda
• Global polysilicon spot prices fell 22% from mid-January
($8.70/kg) to late April ($6.76/kg), approaching the
1 Global Solar Deployment lowest nominal price seen over the past decade.
2 U.S. PV Deployment • The recent plunge in global module prices leveled off,
staying around $0.11/Wdc in Q1 2024.
3 PV System Pricing • In Q4 2023, the average U.S. module price ($0.31/Wdc)
was down 5% q/q and down 22% y/y, but at a 140%
4 Global Manufacturing premium over the global spot price for monofacial
monocrystalline silicon modules.
5 Component Pricing
6 Market and Policy
7 U.S. PV Imports
NREL | 79
Global polysilicon spot prices fell 22% from
PV Value Chain Global Spot Pricing mid-January ($8.70/kg) to late April ($6.76/kg),
approaching the lowest nominal price seen
over the past decade.
$0.30 $45 • Global polysilicon production continued to rise,
mostly due to production in China.
Average Wafer, Cell, and Module Spot Price ($/Wdc)
Bifacial modules $40

$0.25 • According to the China Silicon Industry
Average Polysilicon Spot Price ($/kg)

Monofacial modules $35 Association, China supplied enough polysilicon
production in March 2024 to produce 85 GWdc of
$0.20 $30
modules (equivalent to > 1 TWdc/year).
$25 During the same period, global prices
$0.15
$20 decreased for wafers (18%) and cells (8%).
• Reversing a historical trend, n-type wafers sold at
$0.10 $15
Cells a discount to p-type wafers on a per-piece basis.
Wafers
$10 • The premium for TOPCon cells over PERC was
$0.05 $0.01/W, and Chinese cell manufacturers are
Polysilicon (right axis) $5
increasingly transitioning to TOPCon production.
$0.00 $0 The recent plunge in global module prices
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Apr-24
Jan-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
leveled off, staying around $0.11/Wdc.
• Strong European demand anticipated in Q2 2024
Cells, mono ($/Wdc) Monofacial modules, mono ($/Wdc)
Bifacial modules, mono ($/Wdc) Wafers, mono M10 ($/Wdc) may be helping to stabilize prices.
Polysilicon ($/kg)
NREL | 80
Sources: BloombergNEF, Solar Supply Chain Index (4/2/24); PV Magazine (3/29/24).
Module Prices: In Q4 2023, the average U.S. module price
($0.31/Wdc) was down 5% q/q and down 22%
Global Versus United States y/y, but at a 140% premium over the global spot
price for monofacial monocrystalline silicon
$0.45 modules.
$0.40 The price difference between U.S. modules and
global modules increased every quarter in 2023,
$0.35 reaching $0.18/Wdc in Q4.
$0.30 • Global module prices plummeted in 2023.
PV Module Price ($/Wdc)
$0.25 • The world-leading module price premium in

the U.S. has been maintained by tariffs on
$0.20 Chinese modules as well as module
detainment under the Uyghur Forced Labor
$0.15
Prevention Act (UFLPA).
$0.10 U.S. average module value • Analysts report that the recent reductions in
$0.05 Global spot price, monofacial monocrystalline modules U.S. PV prices have been caused in part by
shrinking UFLPA detainment periods and
$0.00 increased module supply due to a surge in
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 imports before the antidumping and
2020 2021 2022 2023 countervailing duty (AD/CVD) waiver expires
Source: BloombergNEF, Solar Supply Chain Index (4/2/24); EIA, Monthly Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments
in June 2024. NREL | 81
Report (4/30/24); Wood Mackenzie & SEIA, US Solar Market Insight: 2023 Year in Review (3/24).
Calculated U.S. Module Pricing • These module price declines were observed across all
countries of import. However, prices declined most steeply
for modules from South Korea. Current prices are still well
• Based on the reported value and capacity of imported PV modules and
within historical ranges, even when adjusted for inflation.
cells, the average price of a PV module and cell in the United States fell
over the course of 2023 to $0.31/Wdc and $0.14/Wdc, respectively.
Modules Price by Country
– In Q1 2024, U.S. module prices fell further to $0.29/Wdc while cell $0.55
c-Si Module Price (Mar 2024 US$/W)

Malaysia
prices rose to $0.15/Wdc
$0.50 Vietnam
$0.45 Imported Module Value/Watt Thailand
Calculated U.S. Module Nominal
$0.40 "Effective" 201 Tariff Rate $0.45 Cambodia

Imported Cell Value/Watt South Korea
$0.35
$0.40 Total
$0.30
$0.35
Price
$0.25
$0.20 $0.30
$0.15
$0.25
$0.10
$0.05 $0.20
JAN
JAN
JAN
JAN
SEP
MAR
MAR
MAY
JUL
SEP
MAR
MAY
JUL
SEP
MAR
MAY
JUL
NOV
NOV
NOV
$0.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2021 2022 2023 2024
2020 2021 2022 2023 24
Note: The tariff rate was adjusted by the capacity subject to the tariffs. Manual corrections were made to three values due to suspected data entry errors for HTS code 8541430010:
Cambodia (February 2022), Malaysia (June 2020), and Vietnam (July 2019). Several GW of imports from India entered under the HTS code for thin-film modules in 2022/2023, but are
believed to be c-Si based on news reports.
Sources: Imports by HTS code: 8541460015(2018-2021)/8541430010(2022-) and 8541460035(2018-2021)/8541430080(2022-), Second Quantity (watts) from the U.S. Census NREL | 82
Bureau USA Trade Online tool and corrections page as of 5/6/24.
PV Experience Curve
1,000 • This solar PV experience curve, known as

Swanson’s Law, displays the relationship, in
logarithmic form, between the average selling
Module ASP (2023 $/W)
100 price of a PV module and the cumulative global

shipments of PV modules.
• For every doubling of cumulative PV shipments
10
from 1976 to 2023, there has been on average
a ~23% reduction in PV module price.
1 • Historically, due in large part to undersupply
and oversupply conditions, pricing has deviated
from the experience curve.
0.1
0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Cumulative Global Shipments (MW)
NREL | 83
Source: SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply12 April 2024.
Agenda • The waiver of AD/CVD anti-circumvention tariffs on
Southeast Asian–manufactured cells and modules that
use Chinese wafers and other Chinese products ends in
June, and products must be installed by December.
1 Global Solar Deployment • The White House announced in May that it would
work to strictly enforce this.
2 U.S. PV Deployment • New AD/CVD case filed on all Southeast Asian–
manufactured cells and modules.
3 PV System Pricing
• Preliminary determination expected in July, with final
to come in October. However, this could be delayed.
• Section 301 Tariffs updated to increase tariffs on Chinese
5 Component Pricing PV, battery, and steel products, with exceptions for PV
manufacturing equipment.
6 Market and Policy
• The White House indicated that it would remove the
bifacial exemption from Section 201 duties and may
7 U.S. PV Imports
increase the 5 GW tariff rate quota for cells by an
additional 7.5 GW to help domestic module assembly. NREL | 84
AD/CVD Tariffs on Southeast
Asian Modules and Cells U.S. Cell + Module Imports by Region
• The moratorium on AD/CVD anti-circumvention tariffs on Southeast Asian–manufactured cells and 4.0 50
modules that use Chinese wafers and other Chinese products ends June 6th. Products must be installed
by December 3rd to avoid the tariffs. 3.5
40 Malaysia
Imported c-Si Cells (GWdc)
c-Si Module Imports (GWdc)

– The White House announced in May that it would work to strictly enforce this. 3.0 Vietnam
Thailand
– Not all Southeast Asian manufacturers were found to be circumventing. 2.5 Cambodia
30
South Korea
• A separate AD/CVD case was filed on all Southeast Asian–manufactured cells and modules, alleging 2.0 India
China
that imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are injuring the U.S. solar industry. An 20
1.5 Rest of Asia
investigation is sought. N. America
1.0 ROW
– A preliminary determination is expected in July, with final to come in October. However, this 10 Indonesia
could be delayed. 0.5
62% 74%
– The Alliance filing the case includes First Solar, Qcells, Convalt Energy, Meyer Burger, Mission
0.0 0
Solar, REC Silicon, and Swift Solar. 2023 2023
– AD/CVD investigations can cause volatility in the U.S. solar market by pitting domestic PV cell and
module manufacturers against the rest of the U.S. industry, making imported modules and cells Those four countries accounted for 62% of
more expensive, which can reduce PV installations. total imported cells and 74% of total
imported modules into the United States
• AD/CVD findings last for 5 years. But assessed duties can fluctuate significantly, are assessed
in 2023.
annually, and have the potential to change retroactively.
Sources: First Solar, Qcells and others launch AD/CVD petition to DOC (pv-tech.org) ; New AD/CVD petition filed against solar cells and panels from Southeast Asia
(solarpowerworldonline.com) ; Department of Commerce Issues Final Determination of Circumvention Inquiries of Solar Cells and Modules from China | U.S. Department of NREL | 85
Commerce
Other News Affecting
Domestic Manufacturing
• Section 201 Tariff: The White House indicated in May that it would remove the bifacial exemption from Section 201 duties and
may increase the 5 GW tariff rate quota for cells by an additional 7.5 GW to help domestic module assembly.
– Importers with pre-existing contracts for bifacial solar modules will have 90 days to certify those contracts to continue using
the exclusion.
– The Administration also announced it will monitor the level of imported solar cells used to manufacture panels in the United
States and will work to raise the quota by 7.5 GW if imports approach the current tariff-rate quota level under Section 201.
• Section 301 Tariffs were updated to increase tariffs on Chinese PV, battery, and steel products.
– Announcement indicated that there would be an exception on PV manufacturing equipment.
• Domestic Content Bonus: The IRS just released updated guidance intended to make it easier to use the Domestic Content Bonus
within the ITC and PTC tax credits for electric generating assets. It includes a cost table based on NREL analyses, which taxpayers
can elect to use in lieu of collecting proprietary cost data from vendors. Taxpayers can also treat the cost tables as exhaustive if
they elect to use the safe harbor; without the safe harbor table, taxpayers may have to assess other manufactured products within
a facility.
– On February 28, twelve U.S. senators wrote a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel
asking them to include wafers and polysilicon in the equation when calculating whether or not a solar system qualifies for the
ITC/PTC domestic content bonus. They argue that the current domestic content bonus guidance does not sufficiently
incentivize domestic manufacturing of these key supply chain components. The new guidance does not address this issue.
NREL | 86
International Solar Manufacturing Incentives
U.S. Canada India Germany Australia
Inflation Reduction Act Tax Incentives via Budget Production Linked Climate and National Reconstruction
2023 Incentive Transformation Fund Fund + SunShot
Duration: 11 years+ Duration: 11 years Duration: 5 years Duration: 3 years Duration: N/A
Cost: ~370b USD (~41b Cost: ~8.2b USD* Cost: 2.92b USD Cost: 4.5b USD Cost: 2.7b + 0.65b USD
USD for manufacturing)*
Description: Description: Description: Description: Description:

45X – variable, per-unit 30% refundable tax credit Tranche 1 – 550m USD Wide range of funding NRF – loans/guarantees
tax credit for domestic for investments in new given to 3 bidders for types from the to support emerging
manufacturers machinery and equipment setting up fully integrated government to support industry. 2b USD for
48C – 30% tax credit on for clean technologies PV manufacturing local production capacity green materials/clean
upfront costs of manufacturing or critical Tranche 2 – 2.37b USD of raw materials and energy manufacturing.
investment in a minerals processing given to 11 bidders for manufacturing capacity of 0.7b USD for advanced
manufacturing facility setting up fully/partially transformational manufacturing.
integrated PV technologies, such as SunShot – 0.65b USD in
manufacturing solar components subsidies and grants to
onshore more of the solar
Demand-side incentives? Demand-side incentives? Demand-side incentives? Demand-side incentives? supply chain.
Yes, Domestic Content No Yes, the Approved List of No Demand-side incentives?
Bonus for ITC/PTC Models + Manufacturers No
*Indicates uncertainty in cost projections
Sources: Federal Solar Tax Credits for Businesses | Department of Energy ; Federal Tax Credits for Solar Manufacturers | Department of Energy ; Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme: National Programme on High Efficiency Solar PV Modules | Ministry of New and
Renewable Energy | India (mnre.gov.in) ; Tax Incentives for Renewable Energy in India (sustvest.com) ; A Made-in-Canada Plan: Affordable Energy, Good Jobs, and a Growing Clean Economy - Canada.ca ; Renewable power incentives | energy.gov.au ; Australia to invest $15
NREL
billion in renewable energy, critical minerals | Reuters ; German government passes €212bn climate fund – Euractiv ; German Government Puts Extra EUR 30 Billion into Climate and Transformation Fund | Energy Transition (gtai.de ; Germany commits €57 billion to green | 87
infrastructure in 2024 – DW – 08/10/2023) ; Solar Sunshot for our regions | Prime Minister of Australia (pm.gov.au)
International Solar News
China WTO case:
- On March 26, China initiated dispute settlement proceedings against the United States at the World Trade Organization (WTO) for what it considers to be
"discriminatory subsidies" under the Inflation Reduction Act. In China's request, they claim that the U.S. subsidies favor domestic products over imported
goods in a manner that "discriminate[s] against goods of Chinese origin in violation of provisions under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994."
- The dispute is regarding five of the subsidies set forth in IRA: 1) the Clean Vehicle Credit, 2) the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for Energy Property, 3)
the Clean Electricity ITC, 4) the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for Electricity from Renewables, 5) and the Clean Electricity PTC.
- Specifically, China's case targets the domestic content adders available in the ITC and PTC, which they say "threaten to undermine international
cooperation on reducing and mitigating the effects of climate change" by creating an unlevel playing field.
- WTO rulings on trade disputes are supposed to take six months after an adjunction panel is established, though they often take longer.
Maxeon files 3 lawsuits:
- Maxeon Solar recently filed three patent infringement lawsuits in the U.S. relating to its TOPCon technology. The lawsuits are not expected to
affect solar projects that use the affected panels, but these cases could create near-term market turmoil by making it more expensive for panel
manufacturers to supply TOPCon modules.
- Maxeon is the manufacturing arm of Sunpower. It used to manufacture in the United States but moved to Singapore in 2020.
- On March 29, Maxeon initiated a patent infringement lawsuit against Canadian Solar. On April 19, Maxeon initiated patent infringement lawsuits
against REC Solar and Hanwha Qcells.
- Qcells and Canadian Solar have put out statements saying they are confident that they are not infringing upon any patents.
- These lawsuits follow a series of investigations that Maxeon carried out last November on several companies that it believed were
infringing upon its TOPCon patents. Maxeon has not disclosed the full list of companies that it investigated, and more lawsuits are possible.
- The companies being sued are major players in the U.S. manufacturing space, representing a combined 36.5% of current U.S. module manufacturing
NREL | 88
capacity.
California’s Net Billing Tariff (aka NEM 3.0) rules,
California Updates effective in April 2023, continue to stimulate action.

• Two bills introduced in 2024 aim to repeal NEM 3.0 and
order the Public Utilities Commission to evaluate rooftop
PV based on a range of non-economic costs and benefits.
80,000 • The California Energy Commission voted to incorporate a
No. of Residential Interconnection Applications
NEM 3.0 NEM 3.0 range of benefits in state energy-mix decisions.

70,000 approved effective
• The California Supreme Court granted review of a lawsuit
Interconnection Data: Pacific Gas & challenging NEM 3.0, which alleges the policy did not
60,000
Electric, Southern California Edison adequately consider all benefits of distributed PV.
50,000
The Public Utilities Commission approved reducing
40,000
volumetric rates and instituting a $24.15 monthly fee
for residential customers.
30,000 • Income-qualified customers pay a smaller fee.
• Some opponents argued that the flat fee discourages PV.
20,000
The Public Utilities Commission issued a proposed
10,000 decision to change community solar policies.
• Expands a low-income program, adopts a new program
0 with capacity reserved for low-income customers,
streamlines a green tariff program, and authorizes co-
Sep
Nov
Sep
Nov
Jan
Jul
Jul
Sep
Nov
Mar
May
Jan
Mar
May
Jan
Jul
Mar
May
Jan
Mar
location of energy storage.
2021 2022 2023 2024
• Rejects creation of a net value billing tariff promoted by
Standalone PV (approved) PV + storage (approved) community solar advocates, with the rationale of
Standalone PV (received) PV + storage (received) preventing a cost shift to nonparticipating customers.
Sources: California Distributed Generation (3/31/24); Canary Media (3/29/24, 4/15/24); CPUC, Community Solar Fact Sheet (3/4/24); Inside Climate News (3/14/24); PV Magazine NREL | 89
(4/11/24); Utility Dive (3/7/24, 3/28/24, 5/10/24).
In January, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM)
Updated Western Solar Plan released a draft roadmap—the Utility-Scale Solar Energy
Development Programmatic Environmental Impact
Statement (PEIS)—for western solar development.
BLM Solar PEIS, Preferred Alternative (#3) • Designed to expand solar energy deployment by
streamlining siting and permitting in target areas
• Accounts for technology advances and increased
solar energy demand, including in northern states,
that occurred since BLM’s 2012 solar plan.
• Number of states covered expanded from 6 (AZ, CA,
CO, NV, NM, UT) to 11 (+ ID, MT, OR, WA, WY).
• Presents comprehensive list of mitigation/design
measures applicants must implement on BLM land.
Other BLM lands Five alternatives (plus a no-action alternative) are

(brown) proposed, making different amounts of land available to
solar applications under criteria such as proximity to
% BLM
transmission, critical habitat, or other resources.
land by
state • Areas are either open or closed.
• The variance process—which allowed consideration
of development outside Solar Energy Zones under
Available for PV the 2012 plan—is eliminated to focus and improve
application (fuchsia) the efficiency of site reviews.
NREL | 90
Sources: BLM, 2023/2024 Solar Programmatic EIS, 4/24.
PV deployment on BLM lands in the 11 western states
has been relatively small and concentrated to date.
Updated Western Solar Plan • Based on U.S. Energy Information Administration
data as of early 2024, 4.6 GWac of PV (73 projects)
was operating on BLM lands vs. 29.1 GWac (1,640
Planned & Operating PV on BLM & non-BLM Land, Early 2024 projects) on non-BLM lands.
• Planned projects include 3.0 GWac (11 projects) on
25
BLM vs. 16.0 GWac (153 projects) on non-BLM.
• 92% of planned and operating capacity on BLM
20 lands is in CA and NV vs. 58% on non-BLM lands.
• Average utility-scale (≥ 5 MWac) projects are larger
15 on BLM lands than non-BLM lands: 92 MWac vs. 59
PV capacity (GWac)
MWac across operating and planned projects.

Federal initiatives starting in 2009 have had limited
10
success in speeding up approval processes on BLM land
and stimulating developer interest.
5 • Key implementation policies were being developed
in the early years of this period.
0 • During 2017–2021, review of public lands policy
delayed implementation of the Western Solar Plan.
BLM
BLM
BLM
BLM
BLM
BLM
BLM
BLM
BLM
BLM
BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
Non-BLM
• Multi-step environmental reviews for sites resulted
in significant delays.
CA NV AZ NM OR UT CO ID WA WY MT The new plan is meant to expedite development by
Operating Planned directing it to lands with few conflicts and applying
Sources: BLM, 2023/2024 Solar Programmatic EIS, 4/24; EIA, Form 860M, 4/24. RFF, Adding Solar: The Role efficient review and permitting processes. NREL | 91
of the National Environmental Policy Act in Solar Development, 2023.
BLM’s Reasonably Foreseeable Development Scenario
Updated Western Solar Plan projects potential solar development.
• Based on land required to deploy 1,570 GWac of PV
by 2050, from DOE’s Solar Futures Study.
Reasonably Foreseeable Development Scenario (RFDS) • Assumes 174.2 GWac of utility-scale PV is
deployed in 11-state planning area by 2045
• Assumes 75% of this PV is sited on BLM land.
• Results in use of about 700,000 acres of BLM land,
or about 3% of lands available for application under
Alternative 3.
A final plan is expected before the end of the year.
• More than 70 cooperating agencies had
opportunity to comment on the draft plan.
• Public comments were taken until April 18, 2024.
• BLM has flexibility to modify the final plan such that
it differs from the originally proposed alternatives.
BLM’s Renewable Energy Rule, effective July 2024,
complements the Western Solar Plan:
• Reduces rents and fees for renewable projects
• Expands discretion to process applications for
renewable energy rights-of-way inside designated
leasing areas.
NREL | 92
Sources: BLM, 2023/2024 Solar Programmatic EIS, 4/24; BLM, Renewable Energy Rule, 4/24.
Updated Western Solar Plan
BLM Solar PEIS, Plan Alternatives
The plan alternatives are
based on different sets of
exclusion criteria.
• Land available for solar
development ranges from
about 8.4 million acres to
55 million acres.
• The projected need for
solar development
remains the same under
all alternatives.
BLM preferred
alternative NREL | 93
Sources: BLM, 2023/2024 Solar Programmatic EIS, 4/24; BLM, Renewable Energy Rule, 4/24.
14 states generate < 1% solar electricity owing to factors such
Low-Solar States as state and local policies, electricity prices, public awareness,
community opposition, geography/climate, and use of other
clean energy. The map presents a subset of potentially
influential factors but does not present any causal analysis.
RPS 15% Generates > 20% of their

RPS 0% electricity from renewable
sources (symbol represents
the source, wind or hydro,
that generates most of the
RPS 0% RPS 0% state's clean electricity)
RPS 18%
RPS 0% RPS X% Renewable Portfolio
RPS 0% Standard (RPS) goal by
2035
RPS 0% RPS 0%
Does not have state-wide
net-metering
RPS 0%
Savings to Investment
RPS 0% Ratio for a modeled
RPS 0% residential PV system over
RPS 0%
20 years, assuming 30%
investment tax credit.
RPS 0% SIR > 1 indicates potential
energy savings from
installing residential PV.
Sources: Solar laggards: The five states with the least amount of solar installed, PV Magazine, 3/27/24. U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis, State NREL | 94
Profiles, accessed 5/2/24. U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2023 Status Update, LBNL, June 2023.
Nebraska has lower electricity prices than the national average
and is one of the top 10 wind energy generating states in the
Low-Solar States country. Wind accounted for 31% of its electricity generation in
2022. Anecdotally, the state faces significant community
pushback to utility-scale solar, with Kearney and Gage counties
having some of the most restrictive solar zoning regulations in
North Dakota has lower electricity prices than the national average and is one of the country.
the top 10 wind energy generating states in the country. Wind accounted for 37%
of their electricity generation in 2022. West Virginia has lower electricity
prices than the national average and
generates 90% of its electricity from
Alaska has higher electricity coal. The state has neither a
prices than the national renewable energy portfolio standard
average and non-binding goals nor a clean energy standard. Recently,
of producing 50% of their the governor vetoed a bill that would
electricity from renewables by have increased the maximum
2025. In 2022, 33% of their allowable size of utility-scale solar
electricity was produced by projects in the state from 50 to 100
renewable sources and 90% of MW.
that renewable electricity was
from hydropower. Alaska also Alabama has lower electricity prices than the
has lower yearly average national average and produces most of its
irradiance than other states. electricity with natural gas. The state has
neither renewable energy portfolio standards
Sources: A Decade of U.S. Wind Growth, Climate Central, 4/10/24 ; North Dakota Rides the Winds of Change, Clean Grid Alliance, nor a state-wide voluntary renewable energy
3/22/23 ; 50 states of solar incentives: North Dakota, PV Magazine, 2/17/23 ; Why Alabama still lags the rest of the Southeast on goal. They also do not offer net metering for
solar, Energy News Network, 4/6/17; Nebraska Solar Incentives, Tax Credits 1And Rebates Of 2024, Forbes Home, 1/24/24 ; Arrival of distributed generation. Notably, there have
large-scale solar projects in Nebraska met with resistance, Nebraska Public Media, 6/29/23 ; A Solar Design Manual for Alaska, Sixth
Edition, University of Alaska Fairbanks, October 2022 ; Alaska's big shift to renewable energy appears stalled, as future access to been significant investments in manufacturing
natural gas in doubt, Alaska Public Media, 5/18/23 ; Net Metering proposed settlement welcomed by solar advocates, WV Metro in the state, including a proposed First Solar
News, 2/25/24 ; Solar Panel Cost in West Virginia: 2024 Guide, EnergySage, accessed 5/2/24 ; West Virginia Governor vetoes bill that facility. NREL | 95
would double allowable solar project size, PV Magazine, 3/28/24.
In Q1 2024, 26 states, DC, and Puerto Rico were
State Net Metering Policies working on PV compensation changes. For example:

• Arizona added a monthly rooftop solar surcharge of
$2.50–$3.00.
• West Virginia approved an agreement setting export
Distributed Generation Policy Activity in Q1 2024
credit rates for distributed solar generation for Mon
Power and Potomac Edison from 8.9 to 9.3 cents per
kWh depending on customer rate class. The two
utilities proposed changing WV's 1-to-1 net metering
system to base credits of 6.6 cents per kWh. The
proposal garnered large-scale protest. Ultimately, the
two parties were able to settle on higher base rates.
• Massachusetts raised the net-metering cap
exemption for small systems from 10 to 25 kW,
added cap exemptions for large public and private
systems, and became the first state to allow net-
metering facilities to transfer credits to customers
using a different electricity provider. Credit transfers
and sales will allow larger facilities to gain benefit
from their unused net-metering credits.
Sources: Massachusetts expands solar net metering, bucking a national trend, PV Magazine,
3/1/24. Massachusetts order expected to boost distributed solar, could be model for other states, official says, • Puerto Rico extended the lifetime of its 1-to-1 bill
Utility Dive, 2/21/24. Massachusetts expands solar net metering , Environment America, 3/7/24. As states
slash rooftop solar incentives, Puerto Rico extends them, Grist, 2/6/24. APS customers face electric rate
credit program until at least 2030. (Note: this law is
increase, rooftop solar surcharge, AZ Central, 2/22/24. Settlement reached in net-metering case, WV Metro now facing pushback from the Financial Oversight
News, 2/18/24. Puerto Rico’s rooftop solar boom is at risk, advocates warn, Canary Media, 5/20/24. Q1 2024 and Management Board.) NREL | 96
50 States of Solar, NC Clean Energy Technology Center, 4/24 (map reproduced with permission).
Individual Stock Performance (Q1 2024)
Stock Market and Policy
70%
50%
The Invesco Solar ETF fell 18% in Q1 2024, resuming its long slide after an
30%
uptick at the end of 2023, compared with a 1%–8% increase across the
broader market. In the face of persistent inflation, hopes of imminent 10%
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts faded and Treasury yields rose, reducing
-10%
profitability and hindering financing for potential PV customers. Reduced
demand for residential PV due to California’s NEM 3.0 policy also continued -30%
to weigh on the market. In addition, conflict in the Red Sea region and -50%
drought affecting the Panama Canal increased the costs of shipping modules.
-70%
Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) S&P 500 Index Q1 2024
60% 6
iShares Russell 2000 ETF 10-Year Treasury Yield -90%
Enphase Energy
Solargiga Energy
Jinko Solar
Canadian Solar
Wacker Chemie
Shunfeng
Meyer Burger
Atlantica Yield
SunPower
Sunrun
Tainergy Tech
First Solar
Daqo
Ginlong
SolarEdge
Soltec Power
Array Tech.
Sunworks
Sunnova
Azure Power
40% 5
% Change (Index: 01/04/21
10-Year Treasury Yield (%)

20%
Adjusted Close)
4
0%
3 Yieldcos Installers Inverters Trackers PV Manufacturers Poly Equip.
-20%
Note: The TAN index is weighted toward particular countries and sectors. As of
2 5/3/24, 54% of its funds were in U.S. companies and 16% were in Chinese
-40% companies. Its top 10 holdings, representing 60% of its value, were First Solar,
Enphase, NEXTracker, SolarEdge, GCL, Hannon Armstrong, Xinyi, Sunrun, Array
-60% 1 Technologies, and Encavis.
Sources: CNET (3/18/24); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (accessed 5/3/24);
-80% 0 Invesco (5/3/24); PV Magazine (3/11/24); Reuters (5/1/24); Yahoo Finance
1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21 1/22 4/22 7/22 10/22 1/23 4/23 7/23 10/23 1/24 4/24 (accessed 5/3/24). NREL | 97
SREC Pricing
• Solar renewable energy certificate (SREC) pricing has been relatively flat in 2023, particularly for legacy
programs such as New Jersey and Massachusetts, which are not accepting new projects.
• However, potential programmatic or supply/demand changes can still impact markets.
Lower-Priced Markets Higher-Priced Markets

$90 $500
$80
Price Per SREC (Simple Average)
Price Per SREC (Simple Average)

$70 $400
$60
PA MD OH In-state $300
$50
$40
$200
$30
$20 NJ DC MA (SREC II)
$100
$10
$0 $0
Apr-19
Jul-19
Apr-20
Jul-20
Apr-21
Jul-21
Apr-22
Jul-22
Apr-23
Jul-23
Apr-24
Jan-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-19
Jul-19
Apr-20
Jul-20
Apr-21
Jul-21
Apr-22
Jul-22
Apr-23
Jul-23
Apr-24
Jan-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
NREL | 98
Source: SRECTrade, https://www.srectrade.com/, accessed 05/16/24.
Agenda
1 Global Solar Deployment • According to U.S. Census data, 55.6 GWdc of modules and 3.7 GWdc of
cells were imported in 2023, an increase of 87% y/y and 46% y/y,
respectively.
2 U.S. PV Deployment – In Q1 2024, PV module imports held relatively steady for the third
straight quarter at 15.2 GWdc.
3 PV System Pricing – Collectively, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia
represented 78% of module imports (79% including c-Si cells).
4 Global Manufacturing – Imports from India and Indonesia grew significantly in 2023.
• According to U.S. Census data, the United States imported nearly 2
5 Component Pricing GWdc of cells in Q1 2024—the fourth straight quarter of growth. If this
trend continues, the United States could hit its cell import quota of 5
6 Market and Policy GWdc by September, at which point U.S. manufacturers will pay a tariff
on importing cells.
7 U.S. PV Imports • The proportion of modules exempt from Section 201 duties has grown
from 40% in 2019 to 96% in 2023. The President has just removed the
major Section 201 exemption, which is for bifacial modules. NREL | 99
Annual c-Si Cell + Module Imports According to U.S. Census data, 55.6 GWdc (45.5 GW c-Si and
10.1 GW CdTe) of modules were imported in 2023, almost
double the imports in 2022.
According to U.S. Census data, 3.7 GWdc of cells were imported in 2023, an – In 2023, 18% of modules were imported from Malaysia, 28% from
increase of 46% y/y (1.2 GW). Vietnam, 20% from Thailand, and 12% from Cambodia for a total of
78% of all module imports (or 74% of c-Si modules) coming from
– In 2023, Malaysia represented 45% of cell imports (1.7 GW), just exceeding 2022 the four countries under AD/CVD investigation. These four
imports (1.6 GW). After minimal production in 2022, South Korea represented 28% of countries represent 79% of c-Si cell and module imports.
module imports in 2023 (1 GW), falling just short of 2021 imports (1.2 GW).
– An additional 9%* of module imports in 2023 were from India.
– Imports from India and Indonesia grew in 2023, each representing about 5% (125 MW).
U.S. c-Si Cell Imports by Region U.S. Module (c-Si + CdTe) Imports by Region
4.0 ROW 60
Indonesia Malaysia
3.5 Vietnam
Modules Imported (GWdc)

50
c-Si Cells Imported (GWdc)
Philippines Thailand
3.0 India Cambodia
40
2.5 Japan South Korea
Taiwan India
2.0 30 China
Cambodia Rest of Asia
1.5 Thailand 20 N. America
Vietnam ROW
1.0
Malaysia 10
0.5 China
0.0 South Korea 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
*Several GW of imports from India entered under the HTS code for thin-film modules in 2022/2023, but are believed to be c-Si based on known capacities and news reports. These modules may or may not owe duties.
Sources: Imports by HTS code: 8541460015(2018-2021)/8541430010(2022-) and 8541460035(2018-2021)/8541430080(2022-), Second Quantity (watts) from the U.S. Census Bureau USA Trade Online NREL | 100
tool and corrections page as of 5/6/24. Several GW of imports from India entered under the HTS code for thin-film modules in 2022/2023, but are believed to be c-Si based on news reports.
U.S. Module Imports Q1 2024
by Region According to U.S. Census data, in Q1 2024, U.S. module
imports held relatively steady for the third quarter in a
row (15.2 GW, +2% q/q).
– Imports from Vietnam represent an expanding percentage,
U.S. Module (c-Si + CdTe) Imports by Region growing from 25% in Q3 2023 to 39% in Q1 2024. In Q1
2024, Vietnam alone was responsible for 5.9 GW of modules
16
(5 GW of c-Si + 0.9 GW thin film)
14 – After experiencing significant growth in 2023, imports from
12 Malaysia South Korea and India have slowed, although they still
Modules Imported (GWdc)
Vietnam collectively accounted for 15% of module imports in 2023

10 Thailand and 8% of imports in Q1 2024.
Cambodia Looking historically, import levels had decreased after the
8
South Korea withhold release order (WRO) on PV cells and modules
6 India
was announced in late Q2 2021. Additionally, many
China
4 manufacturers in Southeast Asia had reduced production
Rest of Asia
levels earlier in 2022 after the announcement of a U.S.
2 N. America
ROW
anti-circumvention investigation and the implementation
0 of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. However,
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 after the 2-year waiver of new AD/CVD duties was
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 announced in June 2022, imports had grown steadily over
the course of about a year and a half before hitting a
plateau in Q3 2023.
Sources: Imports by HTS code: 8541460015(2018-2021)/8541430010(2022-) and 8541460035(2018-2021)/8541430080(2022-), Second Quantity (watts) from the U.S. Census Bureau USA Trade Online NREL | 101
tool and corrections page as of 5/6/24. Several GW of imports from India entered under the HTS code for thin-film modules in 2022/2023, but are believed to be c-Si based on news reports.
After several years of relatively steady import volumes, c-Si cell
imports have begun to rise substantially even as new domestic
c-Si Cell Import Data Q1 2024 module manufacturing capacity comes online.
According to CBP Commodity Status Reports, cell imports since

February (the date the annual tariff rate quota for Section 201
According to U.S. Census data, the U.S. imported nearly 2 GWdc of cells in Tariffs is counted from) have grown significantly relative to prior
Q1 2024—the fourth straight quarter of growth (and 2nd straight 50%+). years, hitting 2 GW in May. If imports continued at the average
rate of imports, the 5.0 GW TRQ would be exceeded by
– Most of the growth has come from South Korea, which represented
September.
50% of imports in Q4 2023 (740 MW) and Q1 2024 (940 MW).
U.S. Cell Imports by Tariff Year
– The largest c-Si module manufacturer in the United States is U.S. Cell Imports by Tariff Year
Korean-headquartered Q Cells. 3.00 2022 2023 2024 2024 (linear)
6.00
dc)dc)
– Comparing to Q1 2023, c-Si cell imports have nearly tripled y/y. (previous)
5 GW 2.5 GWdc PV Cell Import Quota Exemption
dc PV Cell Import Quota Exemption
(GW
2.50
5.00
U.S.(GW
U.S. Cell Imports by Region 2018
2.0 2019
IntoU.S.
2.00
4.00
Malaysia 2020
Imported Into
Imported c-Si Cells (GWdc)
1.5 Vietnam 2021

3.00
1.50
CellsImported
Thailand 2022
1.0 Cambodia 2023
South Korea 2.00
1.00
China
PVPVCells
0.5 Taiwan 1.00
0.50
Indonesia
0.0 ROW 0.00
Krysta
0.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
8-Apr
8-Aug
7-Jan
9-Mar
9-May
8-Nov
7-Feb
8-Sep
8-Dec
7-Feb
8-Jun
9-Jul
8-Oct
7-Feb
8-Apr
8-Jun
9-Jul
8-Aug
8-Sep
8-Oct
8-Nov
7-Jan
7-Feb
9-Mar
9-May
8-Dec
2021 2022 2023 2024
Sources: Imports by HTS code: 8541460025(2018-2021)/8541420010(2022-), Second Quantity (watts) from U.S. Census Bureau USA Trade Online tool and corrections
page as of 4/11/23; U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commodity Status Reports February 2019–April 2023. NREL | 102
2023 U.S. Module
Imports by Tariff
The proportion of modules exempt from Section 201 duties
has grown from 40% in 2019 to 96%* in 2023.
Annual Module Imports by 201 Tariff Status
60 • In 2023, just over 2 GW of modules reported paying a
Thin-film Modules, not subject to Section 201
tariff, compared to over 13 GW in 2021.
U.S. PV Module Imports (GWdc)
Indian c-Si Modules reported as Thin-film

50
c-Si Exempt from Section 201 (exempt countries) • Thin-film module imports grew to 9 GW* in 2023, up
c-Si Exempt from Section 201 from 6.3 GW in 2022, and accounting for 16% of
40 imported modules.
Section 201 Dutiable, but No Duty Reported
Section 201 Duty Reported Modules can be exempt from Section 201 duties if they are:
30
• Thin-film modules (including CdTe)
20 • Bifacial modules
96%*
40% • Imported from certain exempt countries (including
10
Canada, but most notably Cambodia, which
accounted for 12% of imports in 2023)
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 • IBC (Interdigitated Back Contact) modules.
Sources: Imports by HTS code: 8541460015(2018-2021)/8541430010(2022-) and 8541460035(2018- Bifacial modules are used primarily in utility-scale
2021)/8541430080(2022-), Second Quantity (watts), and Rate Provision Code from U.S. Census Bureau USA
applications.
Trade Online tool and corrections page as of 3/11/24.
*Several GW of imports from India entered under the HTS code for thin-film modules in 2022/2023, but are
NREL | 103
believed to be c-Si based on known capacities and news reports. These modules may or may not owe duties.
• After China placed duties of 57% on U.S.-
U.S. Silicon Exports (>99.99% manufactured polysilicon, the United States shifted
Purity) exports to other markets, particularly Japan and

Taiwan.
– U.S. exports rose after the Chinese tariffs, because
70 of an increase in domestic manufacturing capacity,
mostly from a new Tennessee Wacker plant.
60
• U.S. polysilicon capacity would have likely been
Vietnam
higher if not for the Chinese tariffs, as plans for
50 other U.S. polysilicon plants were canceled.
Japan
Exports (million kg)
Other
40 • However, China continued to increase its polysilicon
Taiwan
and wafer manufacturing capacity, making U.S.
Germany polysilicon less competitive to foreign buyers, and
30
Singapore non-Chinese wafer manufacturing less competitive
S. Korea internationally (causing them to produce less and
20 Norway therefore buy less U.S. polysilicon). As a result, U.S.
China exports dropped, shifting its exports almost entirely to
10 the semiconductor industry.
• Since 2021, U.S. trade policies against China (e.g.,
UFLPA) have created a bifurcated market, resulting in
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 more demand for polysilicon for semiconductors (in
Note: The U.S. tracks the export of silicon, with a purity exceeding 99.99% (HS Code Japan, Taiwan, and Germany) and for PV wafers in
2804610000), which is used within the semiconductor industry (9N+), for fire-resistant Vietnam (where three of the four largest Chinese PV
material (4N+. e.g., spray coating), and for PV wafers (9N).
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; PV Magazine (02/29/24).
module companies have set up wafer plants). NREL | 104
Interested in checking out
more of our data in
Tableau? Click here
NREL | 105
Thank You
www.nrel.gov
NREL/PR-7A40-90042
Special thanks to Nate Blair, Tim Meehan, Michael Matz, and Adam Warren.
This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for
Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-
08GO28308. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. The views expressed in the article do not
necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government retains and
the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a
nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this
work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
AD: antidumping GWh: gigawatt-hour PV: photovoltaics
ac: alternating current H1: first half of year Q: quarter
ASP: average selling price H2: second half of year q/q: quarter over quarter
BIPV: building-integrated photovoltaics HJT: heterojunction technology SEIA: Solar Energy Industries Association
BLM: U.S. Bureau of Land Management HTS: harmonized tariff schedule SETO: Solar Energy Technology Office
c-Si: crystalline silicon IEA: International Energy Agency STEPS: Stated Policies Scenario
C&I: commercial and industrial ILR: Inverter Loading Ratio TAN: Invesco Solar ETF
CC: combined cycle IOU: investor-owned utility TOPCon: tunnel oxide passivated contact
CBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection IRA: Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 TRQ: tariff rate quota
CdTe: cadmium telluride IRS: Internal Revenue Service TW: terawatt
CIGS/CSI: copper indium gallium selenide IBC: interdigitated back contact TWh: terawatt-hour
CPI: consumer price index ITC: investment tax credit UFLPA: Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act
CPUC: California Public Utility Commission ITRPV: International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics UPV: utility-scale photovoltaics
CRA: Congressional Review Act kW: kilowatt USD: U.S. dollars
CSP: concentrating solar power kWh: kilowatt-hour VPP: virtual power plant
CT: combustion turbine LBNL: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory W: watt
CVD: countervailing duty LMI: low- and moderate-income Wt avg: weighted average
dc: direct current MW: megawatt WRO: Withhold Release Order
DPV: distributed photovoltaics MWh: megawatt-hour WTO: World Trade Organization
DOE: U.S. Department of Energy NEA: China’s National Energy Administration y/y: year over year
EIA: U.S. Energy Information Administration NEM: net energy metering YTD: year to date
ETF: exchange traded fund NOPR: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
ETS: Economic Transition Scenario NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
EU: European Union PERC: passivated emitter and rear contact
FPC: Federal Power Commission PPA: power purchase agreement
GW: gigawatt PTC: production tax credit NREL | 107

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Spring 2024

Solar Industry Update

May 14, 2024 Photo by U.S. Department of Energy

1 Global Solar Deployment

5 Component Pricing • Analysts project that cumulative global PV installations will

Annual Capacity Additions (GWac) Cumulative Capacity (GWac)

• A large extent of growth in the EU residential

• This year, REC Solar Norway shut down their operations.

• Norwegian Crystals announced its bankruptcy in August

• Solar cell manufacturing in the EU has grown 0.6 GW from

• There are 57 active module manufacturers in the EU.

• The EU recently adopted a ban on products made with

• Growth in deployment was driven by sub-5 MW solar

• Small-scale solar faces headwinds from rising

• In 2023, Brazil ended its import tax exemption for

• BNEF expects another 17–19 GWdc of solar installations in

3.5 – PVTech estimates there was 29/5.4 GWdc of Indian

3 • An estimated 116 million people currently benefit

20% three months in the first half of 2023.

Deployment According to EIA, planned capacity in 2024 and 2025 would be

50 1921: Lakeside Power Plant in Wisconsin

10 1920: The FPC was established for

1940s-60s: Dramatic increase in energy demand causes

35 Natural gas – Wind represented 13% of added capacity

2023 U.S. PV Installations by Region

45 U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment – A huge surge in residential California installations in

• Five states (California, Nevada, Massachusetts,

Nationally, 5.6% of electricity was generated

The roles of utility-scale and distributed solar

• 2023 is the first year that solar

• Utility-scale solar electricity production (including

• In the past 5 years, 5 states (MA, VT, UT, AZ,

• The United States, as a whole, has a much

Cumulative U.S. PV Installations as of Cumulative U.S. PV Installations as of

Cum. # of Res. PV Systems

3.6% 3,000,000 approximately 4.7 million residential PV systems

• According to EIA data, the percentage of

• The rapid rise in delays between mid-

FL NY MA • Wood Mackenzie projects 1–2 GW of growth through

• Through 2023, the leading five U.S. offsite corporate

Increasing distributed PV system size

U.S. Energy Storage Installations by Market Segment

Energy Storage Installed (GW)

Grid-Scale (GWh) Grid-Scale (GW) 9

U.S. Energy Storage Installations by Market Segment

Note: EIA reports no storage from Puerto Rico. NREL | 45

Market Segment 97% of the market.

Energy Storage Installed (GW)

• From H1 2023 to H1 2024, the median reported distributed

7 U.S. PV Imports – Increased 4% to $1.65/Wdc for systems 1 to 5 MW

$3.0 in 2023, compared to $1.8/Wac in the Midwest

Installed Cost ($/kWac) Installed Cost ($/kWh)

downward pressure on PPA prices, allowing

from Select States, 2023 these data on Tableau Public.

In addition to price differences based on system

Dollar-per-watt prices generally decrease as

For systems of 2.5–10 kW, median price changes

• -5% in Arizona, -5% in California, -1% in

Median Gross Costs ($/W)

Sources: Corporate filings. NREL | 60