Probability

Dr. Mamatha S Upadhya

 Introduction to Probability

People use the term probability many times each day. For example,
• Physician says that a patient has a 50-50 chance of surviving a certain operation.
• Probably there may be storm today.
• Probably it may rain today
• Most probably Kiran will stand first this year
• The chances of teams A and B winning a certain match are equal
• Probably India may win the match
• A stone aimed at a mango on a tree may hit it or may not.
• It is impossible that he may refuse to do my work
All these terms – possible, probably, likely, etc., convey the same sense, i.e., the event is not certain to take place or, in
other words, there is uncertainty about happening of the event 2
 Experiments, Outcomes, Events and Sample
Spaces

Experiment:
Any activity that yields a result or an outcome is called an experiment.
For Example: Rolling a die and observing the number of points on the uppermost face constitute an
experiment.
Noting the pressure of a gas at a various volume levels keeping the temperature constant is also an
experiment.
There are two types of experiment:
1. Deterministic Experiment.
2. Non-deterministic Experiment (or Random Experiment).
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 Deterministic Experiment and Non-deterministic
Experiment

Deterministic Experiment: Is an experiment which when repeated under the same conditions,
results in the same outcome. i.e. it has unique outcome.
For eg. The pressure of a perfect gas is inversely proportional to its volume.
Random Experiment (Non-deterministic Experiment): Is an experiment is an experiment
which may not result in the same outcome when repeated under the same conditions. i.e it is an
experiment which does not have an unique outcome.
For eg. The experiment of tossing a coin may result in either one of the two outcomes-‘head’ and
‘tail’

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 Outcomes, Events and Sample Spaces

Outcome: A result of an experiment is called an outcome.

For eg. , The number ‘5’ is an outcome in the ‘rolling of a die’ experiment.
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the ‘sample space’ and
denoted by S.
For example, In tossing of two coins simultaneously the sample space is
S={ HH, HT, TH, TT}
In the rolling of a die experiment the sample space is
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}

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 Outcomes, Events and Sample Spaces (Contd.)

Event: An event is a subset of the sample space.

Events are usually denoted by A, B,C etc.
For eg. (i) In the rolling of a die experiment, the event of getting a even number is
A= {2,4,6}
Which is the subset of the sample space S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
(ii)In the tossing of two coins the event of getting heads only is A={HH},
Which is the subset of the sample space S={(HH), (HT), (TH), (TT)}
Note : An event which does not contain any outcome is a null event and is denoted by ∅ or { } . For eg.
In the rolling of a die experiment, the event of getting a ‘7’ is a null event.

6
 Mutually exclusive or Disjoint event:

Mutually exclusive or Disjoint event: Two or more events are mutually exclusive if only one of them
can occur at a time. That is, the occurrence of any of these events totally excludes the occurrence of
other events. In other words, mutually exclusive events cannot occur together.
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint if A∩ B=∅ , i.e if A and B have no elements in
common.

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 Probability of an Event

Probability: Probability of an event is a numerical measure which indicates the chance of its occurrence.
Classical or a priori probability (French mathematician Laplace)
Probability, it is said, is the ratio of the number of “favourable” cases to the total number of equally likely
cases. The probability of occurrence of A is denoted by p(A), then by definition we have:
Number of favourable cases 𝑚
P(A)= =
Total number of equally likely cases 𝑛

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 Illustration:

For example, if a coin is tossed, there are two equally likely results, a head or a tail, hence the probability of a
head is ½.
S={H, T}
Here n=2, Let A: toss results in ‘head’.
The number of outcomes favourable to this event is m=1.
Number of favourable cases 𝑚 1
Hence, P(A)= = =
Total number of equally likely cases 𝑛 2
Similarly, if a die is thrown,
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
the probability of obtaining an even number is 3/6 or ½ since three of the six equally possible results are even
numbers.
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 Assigning Probabilities to Events

ഥ )=1
➢ P(A)+P(𝑨
➢ 0≤ P(A)≤ 1
➢ If P(A) =1 , then the event A is a certain event or a sure event.
➢ If P(A)=0, then A is an impossible event.

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 Illustration:

A fair coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that the tosses results in
I. Two heads
II. Atleast one tail
Solution: The sample space in this experiment is S={(HH), (TH), (TT), (HT)}
The total no. of outcomes is n=4
Let event A: both tosses results in heads
i.e A={(HH)} the number of favorable outcomes to event A is m=1
Number of favourable cases 𝑚 1
P(A)= Total number of equally likely cases = =4
𝑛
Let event B: atleast one tail i.e. B= {(TH),(HT),(TT)}
The number of favourable outcomes to event B is m=3.
Number of favourable cases 𝑚 3
Hence, P(B)= Total number of equally likely cases = =4
𝑛
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 Illustration:

Two fair dice are rolled, what is the probability that

(a) Both the dice show the number 3
(b) The sum of the numbers obtained is 13
(c) The sum of the numbers is 12
(d) The sum of the number is 6 or 8
(e) The sum is less than 4
(f) The sum is divisible by 4

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(Contd.)

Solution: The sample space in this experiment is

S= {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), …… (1,6), (2,1), (2,2) ……..(2,6), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3)………………..(6,1),(6,2),
(6,3)…..(6,6)}
Total number of outcomes n=36
(a) Let event A: both the dice show number 3
i.e A= {3,3}the number of favorable outcome m=1.
Number of favourable cases 𝑚 1
Hence, P(A)= = =
Total number of equally likely cases 𝑛 36

(b) Let event B: The sum of the numbers obtained is 13 i.e. B= ∅

Since maximum sum is 12 and obtaining the sum as 13 is impossible. Hence P(B)=0
i.e. B is an impossible event.

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(c) Let event C: sum of numbers obtained is 12
1
i.e. C= {(6,6)} Hence P(C) = 36

(d) Let event D: sum of numbers is 6 or 8 i.e.

D= { (1,5) (2,4)(3,3)(4,2)(5,1)(2,6)(3,5)(4,4) (5,3),(6,2)}
The total number of favorable outcomes to event D is m=10. Hence
𝑚 10
P(D)= = 36
𝑛

(e) Let event E: the sum is less than 4

E={(1,1), (1,2), (2,1)}
𝑚 3 1
P(E) = 𝑛 = 36 = 12

(f ) Let event F : The sum is divisible by 4

i.e. F : the sum is 4 or 8 or 12 .
F={(1,3)(2,2)(3,1)(2,6)(3,5)(4,4,)(5,3)(6,2)(6,6)}
The number of outcomes favorable to event F is m=9. Hence
𝑚 9 1
P(F)= = 36 = 4 14
𝑛
 Addition Rules of Probability

Let A and B be any two events in a sample space S. With respective probabilities P(A)
and P(B). Then the probability of occurrence of atleast one of these two events is
P( A  B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A  B).

A B

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Illustration:
A Class contains 20 boys and 40 girls of which half the boys and half the girls have a bicycle. Find the
probability that a student chosen at random is a boy or has a bicycle.
Solution: Let event A: Student chosen is a boy
Let event B: Student has a bicycle
We seek P(A ∪B)
N0.Of boys in the class 20 1
P(A)= = =
Total no.of students in the class 20+40 3
N0.Of students who have bicycle 30 1
P(B)= = =
Total no.of students in the class 20+40 2
10 1
P (A∩ 𝐵) = P( student is a boy and has a cycle)= =
60 6
Thus, by addition rule of probability
P(A ∪B)= P(A) + P(B)- P (A∩ 𝐵)
1 1 1
= + -
3 2 6
2
=
3
In a city 20% people read the newspaper X and 50% people read the newspaper Y and
10% people read both the newspapers. Find the probability that a randomly selected
person read atleast one of these newspapers.
Solution: Let event A:People read news paper X
Let event B: People read news paper Y
We seek P(A ∪B)
P(A)= 20/100
P(B)=50/100
P (A∩𝐵) = 10/100
Thus, by addition rule of probability
P(A ∪B)= P(A) + P(B)- P (A∩𝐵)
= (20/100)+ (50/100)-(10/100)
= 60/100
60% read atleast one of these newspapers.

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 Conditional Probability

The probability of an event B given that A has already occurred is denoted by P (B|A), read as probability of
the event B given that A has already occurred or simply probability of B given A.
P (B|A) is defined as :
P (A∩ B)
P (B|A) = provided P (A) ≠ 0
P (A)
Example :Consider the random experiment of tossing a coin twice. Let A be the event that at least one of the
tosses result in head and B be the event that the first toss results in head. Here A = {HT , T H,HH} and
B = {HT ,HH} Also A and B = {HT ,HH},
P (A∩ B) (2/4) 2
P (B|A) = = = =
P (A) (3/4) 3

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A manufacturer of computer parts known from experience that the probability
is 0.80 an order will be ready to delivery on time, and it is 0.72 that an order is
ready to delivery but not received by the party on time. What is the probability
that the party receives the parts on time?

𝑃 𝑅∩𝐷 1− 𝑃 𝑅∩𝐷 1−0.72 7

Solution: P 𝑅/𝐷 = = = =
𝑃 𝐷 𝑃 𝐷 0.80 20

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 Independent and Dependent Events

Let there be 2 blue and 3 red balls in a bag. If one ball is drawn randomly from the bag, what is the
probability of getting a blue ball?
Clearly, the probability is 2 5 . Suppose two balls are drawn one by one without replacing the first ball.
Consider the following two situations:
• if you got a red ball first, then the probability of a blue ball next is 2 /4
• if you got a blue ball first, then the probability of a blue ball next is 1/ 4
See how the chances change each time. Each event depends on what happened in the previous event, and are
called dependent.
Consider the above two situations if the first ball is replaced back. Both probabilities are same and is 2 /5 .
Here the happening of the second event is not affected by the previous event, and are called independent.
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 Independent and Dependent Events(Contd.)

• With Replacement: the events are Independent (the chances don’t change)
• Without Replacement: the events are Dependent (the chances change)
Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event do not affect the
occurrence of the other. Otherwise the events are said to be dependent.

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 Multiplication rule of probability

The conditional probability of event A given that B has occurred is denoted by P(A/B) and is given by
P (A∩ B)
P (A/B) = , P (B) ≠ 0
P (B)
From this result, we can write
P(A∩ 𝐵) =P(B) . P(A/B) --------------------(1)
P (A∩ B)
Also, P (B|A) = provided P (A) ≠ 0
P (A)
P(A∩ 𝐵)= P (A) . P (B|A) ………………….(2)
From (1) and (2) We find that P(A∩ 𝐵)= P (A) . P (B|A) = P(B) . P(A/B) provided P (A) ≠ 0 and P (B) ≠ 0 .
The above result is known as Multiplication rule of probability.
Note: If A and B are two independent events then P(A∩ 𝑩) = P(A)P(B)
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 3
Example: Two students A and B work independently on a problem. The probability that A will solve it is
4
2
And the probability that B will solve the problem is . What is probability that the problem is solved.
3

3 2
Solution: Given P(A) = , P(B) =
4 3
P(A ∪B)= P(A) + P(B)- P (A∩ 𝐵)
= P(A) + P(B)- P(A). P(B)
3 2 3 2
= + - .
4 3 4 3
11
=
12

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Example : A machine has two components A and B and it fails to work if either of the
component fails. The probability of component A failing is 0.2 and the probability of
component B failing is 0.1. Find the probability that the machine fails to work.
Solution:
Let event A : component A fails
Event B: component B fails
Given P(A)= 0.2 , P(B)= 0.1
Now, P(machine fails)= P(component A fails or component B fails) =P(A∪ 𝐵)
We have, P(A ∪B)= P(A) + P(B)- P (A∩ 𝐵)
= P(A) + P(B)- P(A). P(B) ( since, A and B are independent events)
= 0.2+0.1-(0.2)(0.1)
= 0.28

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A husband and wife appear in an interview for two vacancies for the same post. Probability of husband getting selected is
1/7 and that of wife getting selected is 1/5 . What is probability that
1. Both of them will be selected.?
2. Only one of them will be selected.?
3. None of them will be selected?

Solution: Let H denotes the event of selecting husband and W denotes the event of selecting wife.
1
Probability of husband getting selected is P(H) = 7
1 6
∴ Probability of husband not getting selected is P(not H)= 1- =7
7
1
Probability of wife getting selected is P(W) = = 5
1 4
∴ Probability of wife not getting selected is P(not W)= 1- =5
5
1. Probability that both of them will be selected :_
1 1 1
P(H ∩ W)= P(H)xP(W) = 7 x 5 = 35

2. Probability that only one of them will be selected :

1 4 1 6 2
P(H)x P(not W)+P(W)x P(not H)= 7 x 5 +5 x7 = 7

3. Probability that none of them will be selected:

6 4 24
P(Not H)x P(not W)= 7 x 5 = 35
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 Baye’s Theorem

Statement: Suppose events A1 ,A2, ………An form a partition of a sample space S

(i.e. the events Ai are mutually exclusive and their union is S ). Now, let B be any
other event. Then
𝐵
𝑃 𝐴𝑖 𝑃
𝐴𝑖 𝐴𝑖
P = 𝐵
for i=1,2,…..n
𝐵 σ𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐴𝑖 𝑃 𝐴𝑖

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Example: A bag contains 4 Red and 4 green balls, another bag contains 2 red and 6
green balls. One of the two bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the bag
which is found to be red. Find the probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag.
𝑅
𝑃 𝐵1 .𝑃(𝐵1)
Solution: P 𝐵1/𝑅 =
𝑃(𝑅)
4/8 1/2
=
2/8 1/2 + 1/2 4/8
= 2/3

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A person is moving from house to office using three ways by car, train, bus. Probability of all three
are equal. Probability of getting late if he is travelling by car is 0.3, by bus is 0.4, by train is 0.1.
Now it is found that he is late today. What is the probability that he is travelling by using the bus?

P (Bus/ Late) =?
P(Car)=P(bus)=P(train)=1/3
𝑙 𝑙
𝑃 .𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃 .𝑃(𝐵)
𝐵 𝐵
P 𝐵/𝐿 = = 𝑙 𝑙 𝑙
𝑃(𝐿) 𝑃 𝐵 ∗𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 ∗𝑃 𝑇 +𝑃 𝐶 ∗𝑃 𝐶
𝑇
𝑙
𝑃 .𝑃(𝐵)
𝐵
= 𝑙 𝑙 𝑙
𝑃 𝐵 ∗𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝑇
∗𝑃 𝑇 +𝑃 𝐶 ∗𝑃 𝐶

1
0.4 3
= 1 1 1
∗0.4+ 3 ∗0.1+ 3 ∗0.3
3
= 0.5

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Example: Three machines A, B and C produce respectively 45%,35% and 20% of the total number of items of
a factor. The percentage of defective output of these machines are 2%, 3% and 4%. Suppose an item is selected
and found to be defective, find the probability that the item was produced by machine A.

Solution: Let D be the defective item.

𝐷
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐴
By Bayes theorm , P(A/B)= 𝐷 𝐷 𝐷
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 𝑃 𝐶
(0.45)(0.02)
=
0.45 0.02 + 0.35 0.03 +(0.2)(0.04)
= 0.3272

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In a bolt factory, machine A, B,C manufacture 25%, 35% and 40%, respectively, of the
total bolts. Of their outputs, 5%, 4% and 2% are respectively, defective bolts. A bolt is
drawn at random from the product. If the bolt drawn is found defective, what is the
probability that is manufactured by the machine A or C?

P(A)=0.25 ; P(D/A) =0.05

P(B)= 0.35; P(D/B)=0.04
P(C) =0.40; P(D/C)= 0.02
0.25 0.05 +(0.40)(0.02)
P(A/D or C/D) = =41/69
0.25 0.05 + 0.35 0.04 +(0.40)(0.02)
Or 59.4 %

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