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    Market Outlook 16th February 2012

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    Angel Broking
    - The domestic Indian markets are expected to open flat, following mixed trends in Asian markets, with the BSE Sensex closing up 2% the previous day at over 18,000 points. - Global cues are mixed as well, with European markets up slightly on hopes that China will help support the struggling eurozone, while US markets closed slightly down. - On the domestic front, optimism has increased due to falling inflation expectations and hopes that the central bank will ease monetary policy further, leading to strong foreign institutional investor inflows.

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    Market Outlook 16th February 2012

    Uploaded by

    Angel Broking
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    - The domestic Indian markets are expected to open flat, following mixed trends in Asian markets, with the BSE Sensex closing up 2% the previous day at over 18,000 points. - Global cues are mixed as well, with European markets up slightly on hopes that China will help support the struggling eurozone, while US markets closed slightly down. - On the domestic front, optimism has increased due to falling inflation expectations and hopes that the central bank will ease monetary policy further, leading to strong foreign institutional investor inflows.

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    - The domestic Indian markets are expected to open flat, following mixed trends in Asian markets, with the BSE Sensex closing up 2% the previous day at over 18,000 points. - Global cues are mixed as well, with European markets up slightly on hopes that China will help support the struggling eurozone, while US markets closed slightly down. - On the domestic front, optimism has increased due to falling inflation expectations and hopes that the central bank will ease monetary policy further, leading to strong foreign institutional investor inflows.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    30 views4 pages

    Market Outlook 16th February 2012

    Uploaded by

    Angel Broking
    - The domestic Indian markets are expected to open flat, following mixed trends in Asian markets, with the BSE Sensex closing up 2% the previous day at over 18,000 points. - Global cues are mixed as well, with European markets up slightly on hopes that China will help support the struggling eurozone, while US markets closed slightly down. - On the domestic front, optimism has increased due to falling inflation expectations and hopes that the central bank will ease monetary policy further, leading to strong foreign institutional investor inflows.

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    Market Outlook

    India Research
    February 16, 2012

    Dealers Diary
    The domestic markets are expected to open sideways following flat opening across most of the Asian markets. The domestic bourses surpassed the psychological 18,000 mark yesterday, reaching the highest level in more than six months. The surge followed the strong rally across Asian markets driven by Chinas pledge to invest in the euro zone bailout. Data showing sustained buying of Indian stocks by FIIs also boosted sentiments. Global cues remained mixed. European markets edged up slightly as China signaled help amidst data that showed contraction of the Germany economy in the fourth quarter. Along with the positive remarks from Chinese officials, US traders also digested the news that the second bailout to Greece could be delayed and the US bourses displayed volatility ending slightly negative. On the domestic front, optimism has gradually crept in. Soothing of inflationary pressures and hopefulness of monetary easing has led to broad based FII inflows. On the global front, Chinas support to the eurozone is likely to renew the optimism of fixing the eurozone debt crises. Currently holding strong breadth, the markets will trace new catalysts for the rally to sustain.

    Domestic Indices BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT Global Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com

    Chg (%)

    (Pts)

    (Close)

    2.0 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.8 1.7 3.6 3.3 2.1 (0.3) 1.8
    Chg (%)

    353.8 18,202 115.9 133.5 92.4 47.3 133.8 5,532 6,481 7,053 6,380 7,830

    431.0 12,558 333.2 10,338 266.5 12,794 (28.0) 107.0


    (Pts)

    8,747 6,149
    (Close)

    (0.8) (0.6) (0.1) 2.3 2.1 0.8 0.9

    (97.3) 12,781 (16.0) (7.7) 208.3 24.3 21.9 2,916 5,892 9,260 3,012 2,367

    Markets Today
    The trend deciding level for the day is 18,145 / 5,512 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18,289 18,376 / 5,563 5,593 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 18,145 / 5,512 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18,058 17,914 / 5,481 5,430 levels.
    Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 17,914 5,430 S1 18,058 5,481 PIVOT 18,145 5,512 R1 18,289 5,563 R2 18,376 5,593

    447.4 21,365

    Indian ADRs Infosys Wipro ICICI Bank HDFC Bank

    Chg (%)

    (Pts)

    (Close)

    2.7 0.5 2.2 1.0

    1.6 0.1 0.9 0.4

    $58.8 $11.2 $39.0 $34.7

    News Analysis

    PM initiates action to address issues of coal supply for power projects 4QCY2011 Result Review INEOS ABS Ltd. 4QCY2011 Result Preview GSK Pharma
    Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Advances / Declines Advances Declines Unchanged

    BSE

    NSE

    1,896 1,081 102

    1,064 427 66

    Net Inflows (February 14, 2012)


    ` cr FII MFs Purch 2,972 536 Sales 1,825 484 Net 1,147 52 MTD 11,037 (1,113) YTD 22,117 (2,968)

    Volumes (` cr) BSE NSE

    4,139 18,737

    FII Derivatives (February 15, 2012)


    ` cr
    Index Futures Stock Futures

    Purch 2,973 3,706

    Sales 2,203 4,212

    Net 770 (506)

    Open Interest 16,595 32,839

    Gainers / Losers
    Gainers Company
    Voltas India Cements Adani Power Reliance Power Havells India

    Losers Company
    Educomp Sol India Sec Aurobindo Phar. IVRCL Cadila Health

    Price (`)
    118 108 79 123 555

    chg (%)
    25.1 14.1 13.1 12.7 9.3

    Price (`)
    237 55 116 60 717

    chg (%)
    (4.5) (3.4) (1.7) (1.6) (1.5)

    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

    Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

    Market Outlook | India Research

    PM initiates action to address issues of coal supply for power projects


    The Prime Minister has approved suggestions made by the Secretary level Committee for solving the issue of coal deficit faced by Power sector. As per the approved suggestions, Coal India Limited (CIL) will sign FSAs with power plants that have entered into long-term PPAs with power distribution companies and have been commissioned/would get commissioned on or before 31st March 2015. For power plants that have been commissioned up to 31st December 2011, FSAs will be signed before 31st March 2012. The FSAs will be signed for full quantity of coal mentioned in the Letters of Assurance (LoAs) for a period of 20 years with trigger level of 80% for levy of disincentive and 90% for levy of incentive. In case of any shortfall in fulfilling its commitment under the FSAs from its own production, Coal India Limited will arrange for supply of coal through imports or through arrangement with State/Central PSUs who have been allotted coal blocks. In our view this news is positive for the power sector considering that the fuel shortage is the key issue currently faced by the sector. CIL had not signed any FSAs with private power generators after March 2009. The main contention between CIL and Power companies was with regard to formers stance of having a trigger level of 50% beyond which it would not get penalized. However, we have concerns with regard to ability of Coal India to ramp up production. The companys ability to ramp up production depends on quicker and easier approvals from environment ministry with regard to forest and environment clearance. We await more clarity on this development.

    Result Review INEOS ABS Ltd. - 4QCY2011


    INEOS reported its 4QCY11 numbers. Top line for the quarter was flat at `211cr yoy. Annual sales stood at `826cr, 7.7% lower than our estimates of `896cr. Operating margin for the quarter fell by 980 bps yoy from 16.4% to 6.4% mainly due to substantial increase in the raw material cost as percent of sales. Net profit stood at `9.5cr, 56% lower yoy. Annual net profit came in at `54cr, 22% lower than our estimates of `69cr. As we roll over to CY2013E, we continue to maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with the revised target price of `733, based on PE of 15x for CY2013E.

    Result Preview GSK Pharma - 4QCY2011


    Glaxo Pharma is slated to announce its 4QCY2011 numbers. For the quarter, we expect the company to post healthy top-line growth of 17.5% yoy to `577cr. The companys bottom line is expected to register a decline of 20.5% yoy to `116cr, aided by margin contraction of 350bp yoy to 30.6%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

    February 16, 2012

    Market Outlook | India Research

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimates


    GlaxoSmithKline Pharma - (16/02/2012)
    Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit 3Q FY12E 562 174 31.0 176 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 491 157 32.1 116 52 14 11 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%) 608 183 30.1 146 21 (8) (5)

    Economic and Political News


    India set to harvest record 250mn tonnes of Food grains Finance Minister asks states to promote investment in farm supply chain CII asks for continuation of 10% standard rate of excise duty in its pre-budget memo

    Corporate News

    Future licences won't be linked to spectrum allocation: Sibal Government mulls options to allocate NTPCs stake in ICVL Volvo rolls out three new variants at lower price points Akzo Nobel India board agrees to partial rollback of royalty rate to parent Sterlite Industries to pay US-based Asarco US $82.8mn in damages

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

    Results Calendar
    16/02/2012 17/02/2012 23/02/2012 GSK Pharma CRISIL Ranbaxy, ABB, Gujarat Gas, Aventis

    February 16, 2012

    Market Outlook | India Research

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

    E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

    Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    February 16, 2012

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