Basic Probability

Random experiment:
Any phenomenon or an operation which has
possible outcomes is called an experiment or
trial.

E.g.: 1) tossing an unbiased coin, 2)

throwing a fair dice, 3) drawing a card from
well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Sample Space:
Set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment is called a sample space. It is
denoted by S.

E.g.: 1) S= {H, T} 2) S= {1,2, 3,4,5,6}

3) S= {1,2, 3………………….52}
Event:
The sub set of sample space is called an
event . It is denoted by A, B, C……..

E.g.: 1) Event A is Head. So, A={H}

2) B is odd no’s, B = {1, 3,5}

Example of probability

When randomly selecting a day from the year 2015

what is the probability the day is in January?

X number of days in January

Probabilit y of Day In January  
T total number of days in 2015

X 31 days in January 31
 
T 365 days in 2015 365
Example of probability

Find the probability of selecting a male taking statistics

from the population described in the following table:

Taking Stats Not Taking Total

Stats
Male 84 145 229
Female 76 134 210
Total 160 279 439

number of males taking stats 84

Probability of male taking stats    0.191
total number of people 439
Impossible Event –
an event that has no chance of
occurring (probability = 0)

Certain Event –
an event that is sure to occur
(probability = 1)
 Simple Probability

 Simple Probability refers to the probability of a

simple event.
 ex. P(Jan.)
 ex. P(Wed.)

Jan. Not Jan. Total

P(Wed.) = 52 / 365
Wed. 4 48 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 31 334 365

P(Jan.) = 31 / 365
 Definition: Joint Probability

 Joint Probability refers to the probability of an

occurrence of two or more events (joint event).
 ex. P(Jan. and Wed.)
 ex. P(Not Jan. and Not Wed.)

Jan. Not Jan. Total

P(Not Jan. and Not Wed.)
Wed. 4 48 52
= 286 / 365
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 31 334 365

P(Jan. and Wed.) = 4 / 365

Mutually exclusive Events:

 Mutually exclusive events

 Events that cannot occur simultaneously

Example: Randomly choosing a day from 2015

A = day in January; B = day in February

 Events A and B are mutually exclusive

 Exhaustive Events:
If the sample points of the two events taken
together constitute the sample space of the
experiment, the event is called as the
exhaustive events.
If two events A and B are such that A∪B=S.
• E.g.: A= {1,3,4,5} B= {2,4,6} then A∪B=S
Joint Probability Example

Jan. Not Jan. Total

Wed. 4 48 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 31 334 365

Probability Summary So Far
 Probability is the numerical measure
of the likelihood that an event will 1 Certain
occur
 The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A 0.5
 The sum of the probabilities of all
mutually exclusive and exhaustive
events is 1
P(A)  P(B)  P(C)  1
0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive
General Addition Rule

General Addition Rule:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A and B) = 0, so the rule can be simplified:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

For mutually exclusive events A and B
General Addition Rule Example

P(Jan. or Wed.) = P(Jan.) + P(Wed.) - P(Jan. and Wed.)

= 31/365 + 52/365 - 4/365 = 79/365
Don’t count
the four
Wednesdays
in January
Jan. Not Jan. Total twice!
Wed. 4 48 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 31 334 365

Computing Conditional
Probabilities
 A conditional probability is the probability of one
event, given that another event has occurred:
P(A and B) The conditional
P(A | B)  probability of A given
P(B) that B has occurred

P(A and B) The conditional

P(B | A)  probability of B given
P(A) that A has occurred

Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B

P(A) = marginal or simple probability of A
P(B) = marginal or simple probability of B
Conditional Probability Example

 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air

conditioning (AC) and 40% have a GPS. 20%
of the cars have both.

 What is the probability that a car has a GPS,

given that it has AC ?

i.e., we want to find P(GPS | AC)

Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a GPS and
20% of the cars have both.
GPS No GPS Total
AC 0.2 0.5 0.7
No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0

P(GPS and AC) 0.2

P(GPS | AC)    0.2857
P(AC) 0.7
Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Given AC, we only consider the top row (70% of the cars). Of
these, 20% have a GPS. 20% of 70% is about 28.57%.

GPS No GPS Total

AC 0.2 0.5 0.7
No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0

P(GPS and AC) 0.2

P(GPS | AC)    0.2857
P(AC) 0.7
Independence

 Two events are independent if and only if:

P(A | B)  P(A)
 Events A and B are independent when the probability of
one event is not affected by the fact that the other event
has occurred
Multiplication Rules

 Multiplication rule for two events A and B:

P(A and B) P(A | B)P(B)

Note: If A and B are independent, then P(A | B)  P(A)

and the multiplication rule simplifies to

P(A and B)  P(A)P(B)

A ticket is drawn at random
from a set of 20 tickets
numbered from 1 to 20. What
is the probability that the
number of ticket drawn is
divisible by 2 or 3?
Counting Rules
 Rules for counting the number of possible
outcomes
 Counting Rule 1:
 If any one of k different mutually exclusive
and collectively exhaustive events can occur
on each of n trials, the number of possible
outcomes is equal to
kn

 Example
 If you roll a fair die 3 times then there are 63 = 216
possible outcomes
 Counting Rule 2:
 If there are k1 events on the first trial, k2 events

on the second trial, … and kn events on the nth

trial, the number of possible outcomes is

(k1)(k2)…(kn)

 Example:
 You want to go to a park, eat at a restaurant, and
see a movie. There are 3 parks, 4 restaurants, and
6 movie choices. How many different possible
combinations are there?
 Answer: (3)(4)(6) = 72 different possibilities
 Counting Rule 3:
 The number of ways that n items can
be arranged in order is
n! = (n)(n – 1)…(1)
 Example:
 You have five books to put on a bookshelf.
How many different ways can these books
be placed on the shelf?

 Answer: 5! = (5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 120 different

possibilities
 Counting Rule 4:
 Permutations: The number of ways of arranging r
objects selected from n objects in order is

 Example:
 You have five books and are going to put three on a
bookshelf. How many different ways can the books be
ordered on the bookshelf?
n! 5! 120
 Answer: n Px     60 different possibilities
(n  X)! (5  3)! 2
NOTE:

 1. nP0 = 1

 2. nPn = n!

 3. nPr = n x (n-1) x (n-2) x (n-3)……r terms

Eg. 3P2 = 3 x 2 = 6
6P = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 360
4
 Counting Rule 5:
 Combinations: The number of ways of selecting r
objects from n objects, irrespective of order, is

 Example:
 You have five books and are going to select three are to
read. How many different combinations are there, ignoring
the order in which they are selected?

n! 5! 120
 Answer: n Cx     10 different possibilities
X!(n  X)! 3!(5  3)! (6)(2)
NOTE:
