LECTURE 5

Commonly Used Discrete Distributions

Lecturer: Nguyen Thi Thu Van

Email: van.nguyen@ueh.edu.vn
 Content

 Uniform probability distribution

 Binomial probability distribution

 Hypergeometric distribution

 Negative Binomial distribution

 Geometric probability distribution

 Poisson probability distribution

PDF CDF
Possible events Sample Random Probability
space variable
Head H
T
Rolling a dice. X = the possible outcomes.
Then X has a uniform distribution as follows.
Uniform Distribution Characteristics
 Example
In a large sample of three-digit lottery numbers, you would expect the
sample mean and standard deviation to be very close to 499.5 and
288.67, respectively.

For example, in Michigan’s daily

three-digit lottery, from January 1, 2010,
through December 31, 2010, there were
364 evening drawings. The mean of all the three-digit numbers drawn
over that period was 497.1 with a standard deviation of 289.5. These
sample results are extremely close to what would be expected.

Lotteries are frequently studied to make sure they are truly random.
Binomial Distributions
Binomial Probability Distribution
Example

On average, 20 percent of the emergency room

patients at Greenwood General Hospital lack
health insurance.
In a random sample of four patients, what is the
probability that two will be uninsured?
Answer. How many ways are there to select 2
uninsured patients from a group of 4 patients? = 4C2

Since patients are independent, the probability that

two will be uninsured, for example, at experiment 2
and experiment 4 is 0.22.(1-0.2)4-2
The probability that two will be uninsured
C 0.2 2.(1-0.2)4-2
4 2
Binomial Random Variables
Binomial Distribution Formula

n! X n -X
P(X) = p (1- p)
X ! (n - X)!

P(X) = probability of X successes in n trials,

with probability of success p on each trial

X = number of ‘successes’ in sample,

(X = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
n = sample size (number of trials
or observations)
p = probability of “success”
 How to Calculate a Binomial Probability?
What is the probability of one success in five
observations if the probability of success is 0.1?

X = 1, n = 5, and p = 0.1

n!
P(X = 1) = p X (1 - p ) n - X
X!(n - X)!
5!
= (0.1)1 (1 - 0.1)5-1
1!(5 - 1)!
= (5)(0.1)(0.9) 4
= 0.32805
Binomial Distribution Characteristics
Moment Generating Function
Example 1. an P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
μ = np = (5)(0.1) = 0.5 .6
.4
σ = np (1 - p ) = (5)(0.1)(1 - 0.1) .2
0 X
= 0.6708 0 1 2 3 4 5

Example 2. an

μ = np = (5)(0.5) = 2.5
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5
.6
σ = np (1 - p ) = (5)(0.5)(1 - 0.5) .4
.2
= 1.118 0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
Using Excel For The Binomial Distribution (n = 4, p = 0.1)
Hypergeometric Distributions
Let get started by the following example
 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
X = the number of successes in n dependent
Bernoulli trials.

 n trials in a sample taken without replacement

from a finite population of size N. Thus, outcomes
of trials are dependent.

Then X has a hypergeometric distribution.

Hypergeometric distribution is similar to the

binomial except that trials are not independent.
 Hypergeometric Distribution Formula

where
N = population size
s = number of items of interest in the population
N – s = number of events not of interest in the population
n = sample size
x = number of items of interest in the sample
n – x = number of events not of interest in the sample
 Hypergeometric Distribution Characteristics

Remark. To prove these characteristics, instead

of finding the MGF which is more trouble than it
is worth, we will use the theorem in next slide!
 How to Calculate a Hypergeometric Probability?
The three different computers are selected from 10 in the
department. 4 of the 10 computers have illegal software
loaded. What is the probability that 2 of the 3 selected
computers have illegal software loaded?

N = 10 n=3
s=4 x=2

( 4 C2 )(6 C1 )
P(X = 2 | 3,10,4) = = 0.3
(10 C3 )
The probability that 2 of the 3 selected computers have
illegal software loaded is 0.30, or 30%.
Using Excel for Hypergeometric Distribution (n = 8, N = 30, s = 10)
Hypergeometric Distribution vs. Binomial Distribution
Negative Binomial Probability Distribution
Let get started by the following example
Answer. How many ways are there to select 4
agreements from a group of the first 14
interviewees? = 14C4

Probability needed to find is

14
4
0.25−1 × 1 − 0.2 10 × 0.2
Negative Binomial Probability Distribution
 Probability Formula
Observe that
Characteristics of Negative Binomial Distribution
Moment Generating Function
Geometric Probability Distribution
Get started by the following example
 Geometric Probability Distribution
The geometric distribution describes the number
of Bernoulli trials until the first success.

 X is the number of trials until the first success.

• X ranges from {1, 2, . . .}

• Must have at least one trial to obtain the first

success, but the number of trials is not fixed.

 p is the constant probability of a success on

each trial.
Geometric Distribution Formula
Poisson Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
 Probability Formula
-
e  x
P( X = x |  ) =
x!
where

x = number of events in an area of opportunity

 = expected number of events (average number of

events per unit)

e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)

 Poisson Distribution Characteristics

To prove these characteristics, we will use MGF.

Moment Generating Function
Settings
 You wish to count the number of times an event occurs
in a given area of opportunity (time, space, volume…)

 The probability that an event occurs in one area of

opportunity is the same for all areas of opportunity

 The number of events that occur in one area of

opportunity is independent of the number of events that
occur in the other areas of opportunity

 The average number of events per unit is  (lambda)

 Example
An average number of houses sold per day by a
real estate company is 2. What is the probability
that 3 houses will be sold tomorrow?

- -2
e λ x
e (2) 3
P(X = 3 | 2) = =
x! 3!
(2.71828- 2 )(2)3
= = 0.18
3!
 Graph of Poisson Probabilities

Graphically:
 = 0.50
=
X 0.50
0 0.6065
1 0.3033
2 0.0758
3 0.0126
4 0.0016
5 0.0002
6 0.0000
P(X = 2 | =0.50) = 0.0758
7 0.0000
 Poisson Distribution Shape

 = 0.50  = 3.00
 Example [events in an interval of time]
At an outpatient mental health clinic, appointment
cancellations occur at a mean rate of 1.5 per day
on a typical Wednesday.

What is the probability

that no cancellations will
occur on a particular
Wednesday?
 Example [events in a space]
According to J.D. Power and Associates’ 2006 Initial
Quality Study, consumers reported on average 1.7
problems per vehicle with new 2006 Volkswagens.
In a randomly selected new Volkswagen, find the
probability of
 at least one problem;
 no problems;
 more than three problems.
 make a graph of its PDF
Please skip the theorem if you feel it hard!
Example
Remark. Poisson distribution used in cases where
then chance of any individual event being success is
very small. The distribution is used to describe the
behavior of rare events. For examples,

• The number of defective screws per box of 5000

screws

• The number of computer crashes in a day.

• The number of air accidents in India in one year.

Poisson Approximation to Binomial
 Example
The probability that a passenger’s bag will be mishandled
on a U.S. airline is .0046. During spring break, suppose
that 500 students fly from Minnesota to various southern
destinations.
 What is the expected number of mishandled bags?

 What is the approximate

probability of no
mishandled bags? More
than two?
 Binomial Approximation to Hypergeometric
 Both the binomial and hypergeometric involve
sample size of n and the number of successes X.

 The binomial sample is with replacement while the

hypergeometric sample is without replacement.

 Rule of Thumb: If n/N < 0.05, we can use the

binomial approximation to the hypergeometric,
using sample size n and p = s/N.
 Example
Two hundred employee travel expense reimbursement
vouchers were filed last year in the finance department at
Ramjac Corporation. Of these, 20 contained errors. A
corporate auditor audits a sample of five vouchers.
Let X be the number of incorrect vouchers in the sample.
 Justify the use of the binomial
approximation.
 Find the probability that the sample
contains no erroneous vouchers.
 Find the probability that the sample
contains at least two erroneous vouchers.
-- The End of Topic --
Thank You!