Goldsmith
Goldsmith
Goldsmith
Energy & environment factors affecting the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries Ian Goldsmith
Steel scrap
Coal/Coke Electricity Natural Gas
Electric Arc Steelmaking Continuous Casting
EU 25
USA China
186
94 348
( -7)
( -5) (+72)
34%
63%
In 2004, over 90% of global steel was continuously cast EU 25*, China, NAFTA, Japan, Korea >95%
*But, Poland <80%
324
316
311
300
260
252
227
EU15
N America
Japan
China
FSU
India*
Brazil
Energy prices
p/therm /MWh
500
70
60
50 400 50 40 30
300
Coal Scrap
30 20 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
YTD
200
100
10
01
Note: UK Wholesale electricity and natural gas forward prices Source: Heren Energy report Exchange rate: /1.50
102
54
51
48
47
41
40
38
35 23
Japan
UK
Neth*
Poland
Germany*
US
France
Brazil
Norway
Russia**
* Estimated ** 2003 Sources: IEA Energy Prices and Taxes Q4 2005, Datastream, Corus
350
40%
30%
200 25%
150
100
19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04
20%
Source: IISI
800
top pressure
600
coal
400
200
coke
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0 1950
Legislation overload
EU: IPPC Directive EU Emissions Trading Scheme Packaging & Packaging Waste Directive Landfill Directive Trans-frontier Shipment of Waste Regulations Waste Framework Directive EU Polluting Emissions Register Air Quality Directives National Emissions Ceilings Directive Large Combustion Plant Directive Water Framework Directive REACH ELV Directive WEE Equipment/RoHS Directives Energy Using Products Directive
UK: Environmental Protection Act 1990 (Contaminated Land Regulations) Landfill Tax Hazardous Waste Regulations Producer Responsibility (Packaging) Climate Change Levy
Renewables Obligation
Air Quality Objectives
Estimated effect of EU ETS on UK electricity prices is over 25% of the increase since 2004 UK electricity companies have increased profits by ~800m/year
(Source: IPA report for UK Government Nov 2005)
Examples of effect on Corus UK Renewables Obligation = 9m in 2006 (by 2010 this will be over 13m) UK Climate Change Levy = 6m (index linked from 2007) EU ETS >20m (Including energy cost increases plus administration, verification etc)